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Quyn li ca bn
Cm n bn mua Ebook ny. Bn s c CFOViet u tin gi ring qua email mt s qu tng sau sau y: Gi ti liu kinh t hu ch dng km vi sch Bn cp nht ca ti liu ny (nu c) Ti liu khc v B quyt thnh cng, c hi kinh doanh, u t, (gi nh k)
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V sao cn hc Kinh t v m ? 1. i vi nhng ngi ang theo hc ngnh kinh t, ti chnh, k ton, ngn hng, u t, bn hng, marketing,... : Kinh t v m l ngun kin thc thc s cn thit v nh tuyn dng lun nh gi cao nhng ai am hiu v lnh vc ny. 2. i vi doanh nghip: Hiu bit v kinh t v m gip doanh nghip nm c quy lut ca nn kinh t, ng ph mt cch nhy bn i vi nhng thay i v chnh sch, bin ng ca th trng, nhm gip doanh nghip vt qua kh khn cng nh nm bt c hi pht trin kinh doanh. 3. i vi ngn hng: bin ng ca cc yu t thuc kinh t v m gn lin vi li nhun ca ngn hng, v ngi lm trong ngn hng buc phi hiu r lnh vc ny. 4. i vi nh u t: mi quyt nh u t lun cn c vo vic phn tch doanh nghip kt hp vi chnh sch kinh t v m ca t nc. 5. i vi ngi lm trong chnh ph: hiu r v kinh t v m mi c th ra quyt nh v ban hnh chnh sch mt cch sng sut v hp l.
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Phn ln du hiu cnh bo cc cn bo ti chnh nm iu kin kinh t vi m. Song song vi n, vic theo di cc ch s kinh t v m s c th gip tm ra nguyn nhn ca khng hong, ch ra ni khng hong s tn cng v thm ch khong thi gian n c th tn cng.
Li dy ca cao nhn
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Kinh t v m l g ?
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Kinh t v m vs Kinh t vi m
Kinh t v m
Kinh t vi m
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Kinh t v m
Kinh t vi m
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Kinh t v m l g ? Kinh t hc nghin cu v 2 lnh vc chnh: Kinh t v m v Kinh t vi m V m (Macro): quy m ln, phm vi ln Vi m (Micro) : quy m nh, phm vi nh Ch V () ngha l to ln V d: V nhn (ngi v i) Ch Vi () ngha l nh b V d: Vi trng (sinh vt rt nh)
Kinh t vi m Microeconomics
Kinh t v m (Macroeconomics)
Nhn t trn cao, quan st ton b khu rng. Quy m rng ln: ton th nn kinh t (overview of the economic status of a country) i tng: Chnh ph, ngi nc ngoi, ton b doanh nghip, h gia nh,... V d: tng trng GDP, CPI, t l tht nghip, lm pht, chnh sch tin t, (growth, inflation, unemployment,...)
Kinh t vi m (Microeconomics)
Nhn t mt t, quan st s tng tc gia cc cy trong rng. Quy m nh l: tp trung vo cc c th n l (focused on the behavior of individual households and firms) i tng: ngi tiu dng, doanh nghip, th trng cnh tranh, V d: cung, cu, gi c, th trng, sn lng, doanh thu, chi ph, li nhun,... (the supply and demand for goods and services...)
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V d 2
"Theo nhn nh ca Hip hi Thp Vit Nam (VSA), sau nhiu thng trm lng t u nm n nay, th trng thp c th s khi ng tt hn t thng 9 cho n qu IV. Khi , th trng thp si ng tr li, sc tiu th mnh, gi bn s c iu chnh ln mt cht." (Thi bo ngn hng)
Mc tiu ca Kinh t v m
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Sn lng
Vic lm
Lm pht
Cn cn thng mi
T l lm pht va phi
4 mc tiu Kinh T V M
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C nhn / H gia nh
Kinh t V m
Nh nc Chnh ph
Cc cng c iu tit v m
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Relax: Bi hc cuc i
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GDP trn bo ch
GDP
Tng sn phm quc ni l gi tr th trng (market value) ca ton b dch v v hng ha cui cng (final goods and services) c sn xut ra trong phm vi lnh th ca 1 quc gia (within the border of a country), trong 1 khong thi gian nht nh (given time period) thng l 1 nm hoc 1 Qu.
V d: 1. Thu nhp ca ngi Vit Nam ang lm Nht c tnh vo GDP ca Nht. 2. Gi tr th trng ca in thoi Galaxy do cng ty Samsung Vietnam sn xut c tnh vo GDP ca Vit Nam. 3. Li nhun do ngn hng HSBC Vietnam kim c ti Vit Nam c tnh vo GDP ca Vit Nam.
V d: 1. Nh xy nm 2011 nhng c bn vo nm 2012, th c tnh vo GDP nm 2011, 2. Hng ha c sn xut vo nm 2011, nhng c ct gi trong kho n nm 2012 mi bn, th c tnh vo GDP ca nm 2011, cn tin hoa hng i l bn hng c tnh vo 2012.
GDP l tng ca phn gi tr gia tng (Value Added) t mu : 100 + 300 + 49700 = $50.000 Lp xe gi Cao su gi
Xe hi gi
$50.000
$49.700
$300
$200 $100 $300
$100
$100
Cng ty Cao su
Cng ty Lp xe
Cng ty t
GDP l gi tr ca sn phm cui cng Nh vy, GDP ch bao gm sn phm cui cng (dng thnh phm), ch khng bao gm sn phm trung gian (dng nguyn liu), nhm trnh s trng lp khi 1 mt hng c tnh n 2 ln (avoids double counting). Sn phm trung gian (Intermediate goods) Sn phm u vo ca qu trnh sn xut to ra sn phm cui cng, v c s dng ht sau qu trnh . V d: Chip dng ch to in thoi, lp cao su sn xut xe hi, bt lm bnh, Sn phm cui cng (Final goods) Sn phm c ngi s dng cui cng (final buyer, ultimate consumer) mua dng, ch khng phi sn xut. V d: in thoi, Xe hi, Bnh ko,
Tnh ton GDP V d: Tnh GDP ca t nc NeverLand (ch sn xut 2 sn phm Bnh m v Sa)
Gi
S lng
GDP
Bnh m Sa
$30 $100
900 192
$46.200
*GDP y cn c gi l GDP danh ngha (Xem cc phn tip theo hiu r hn)
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GDP danh ngha v GDP thc t trn bo ch Tng sn phm quc dn (GNP)
S khc nhau gia GDP v GNP GNP (Gross National Product) l Tng sn phm quc dn. GNP ca Vit Nam l tng thu nhp ca ngi Vit trong nc v nc ngoi (nation's citizens), nhng khng tnh thu nhp ca ngi nc ngoi ang Vit Nam (foreigners earn within the nation's boundaries are not included). Ca s Vit Nam Ca s M Tm i biu din Hoa K th c tnh vo : GNP ca Vit Nam GDP ca Hoa K Ca s nc ngoi Ban nhc Westlife (quc tch Ireland) n Vit Nam biu din th c tnh vo : GNP ca Ireland GDP ca Vit Nam
GNP = GDP + income earned by residents from overseas investments - income earned within the domestic economy by overseas residents.
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GDP thc t
Tnh ton GDP danh ngha (Nominal GDP) v GDP thc t (Real GDP)
2011
GDP thc t
GDP thc t
Tnh ton GDP danh ngha (Nominal GDP) v GDP thc t (Real GDP)
2011
2012 GDP danh ngha = 412.000 = 48.000 GDP danh ngha tnh theo gi hin ti (current price).
GDP thc t
= 310.000 = 30.000
GDP thc t
= 410.000 = 40.000
GDP thc t dng li gi c ca nm 2011 l 10.000 tnh. Kt lun: GDP danh ngha c tnh n yu t lm pht, cn GDP thc t th khng.
Phn bit GDP danh ngha (Nominal GDP) v GDP thc t (Real GDP) Nm 2011 2012 GDP thc t (Real GDP): L GDP tnh theo s lng ca nm nay, nhng gi c nh (constant prices) ca nm gc (nm trc). (captures only changes in quantity and is insensitive to the price level) Do vy cn gi l GDP theo gi so snh (prices of a base year).
GDP danh ngha (Nominal GDP): L GDP tnh theo s lng v gi hin hnh. (captures both changes in quantity and prices) Ngha l, sn phm ra i trong nm no th ly gi ti nm . Do vy cn gi l GDP theo gi hin hnh (current price).
GDP m chnh ph cng b (thng xut hin trn bo ch) l GDP danh ngha.
Tnh ton GDP danh ngha (Nominal GDP) v GDP thc t (Real GDP) Cu hi: Tnh GDP danh ngha v GDP thc t theo tng nm, ly nm 2006 lm mc (Base year).
$102
$100
Tnh ton GDP danh ngha (Nominal GDP) v GDP thc t (Real GDP) Tr li:
2010 (Gc) Gi Bnh m Sa GDP danh ngha GDP thc t $30 $100 S lng 900 192 Gi $31
$102
$100
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CPI l g ?
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Relax !
Khi tnh CPI, mt hng sau y nm trong mc Thc phm hay Giy dp ?
CPI l g ? Ch s gi tiu dng CPI (Consumer Price Index) l ch s phn nh tng (%) ca gi c hng tiu dng v dch v (consumer goods and services), c dng lm thc o lm pht ca nn kinh t.
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Li sut CPI T gi
Tn dng
Hng ha
Mi quan h gia Ch s gi tiu dng CPI (lm pht) & Li sut ngn hng
30
25
CPI (%) so vi cng k nm trc CPI (%) so vi thng trc Li sut ti chit khu Li sut ti cp vn
Nng li sut
Sit tn dng
CPI bt u m
20
15
Li sut c bn
10
2006/1/1
-5
2007/1/1
2008/1/1
2009/1/1
2010/1/1
2011/1/1
2012/1/1
Tn dng (lng tin cho c nhn hoc t chc vay) Ngn hng Nh nc (NHNN) nng mc tng trng tn dng (%) s thc y cc Ngn hng Thng mi (NHTM) tch cc cho vay, bm thm nhiu tin ra v tnh lm tng lm pht v ri ro n xu. S liu di y gp phn l gii v sao lm pht tng t cui nm 2007 v 2009:
T gi USD/VND: Ngy 11.2.2011, NHNN tng mnh t gi USD/VND ln 9.3% vi mc ch bnh n t gi th trng ch en, v tnh kch thch lm pht tng mnh (do nhp nguyn vt liu vi t gi t hn, ko gi thnh phm ln).
S kin ny khin gii u t nc ngoi bt ng. IMF v Citigroup khuyn co Vit Nam phi hnh ng ngay cu vn tnh hnh. NHNN buc lng phi nng li sut (nhm hn ch cho vay) kim ch cn bo gi.
u nm 2012, lm pht gim cng mt phn l do gi xng du, lng thc, thc phm gim, ch cha hn l nh chnh sch kim ch. Ch cn pht sinh mt t thin tai, hn hn, hoc mt c sc v ngun cung s y gi ln tr li.
Tt Nguyn n v CPI
30
25
CPI (%) so vi cng k nm trc CPI (%) so vi thng trc Li sut ti chit khu Li sut ti cp vn
20
15
Li sut c bn
10
2006/1/1
-5
2007/1/1
2008/1/1
2009/1/1
2010/1/1
2011/1/1
2012/1/1
Nu s thy rng: CPI (so vi thng trc) lun tng vo u mi nm v y l thi im mua sm nhn nhp trc Tt Nguyn n.
S khc nhau gia CPI v Ch s gim pht GDP C 2 s khc bit quan trng gia 2 ch s ny lm chng khng ng nht vi nhau: CPI Phn nh gi c hng ha c mua bi ngi tiu dng. Ch s gim pht GDP Phn nh gi c hng ha c sn xut trong nc (produced domestically).
T ng thay i nhm hng ha v dch v theo thi gian khi kt cu ca GDP c cp nht thay i.
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Chu k kinh t l g ?
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nh Peak
nh Peak
y Trough
nh Peak
nh Peak
If there are no ups and down in your life It means you are dead Kinh t vn hnh ging nhp p ca tim, phi c lc ln lc xung th mi sng c
Bn c bit ? T sau chin tranh th gii th II, cc chu k kinh t din ra theo quy lut: 2 nh (Peak) lin k cch nhau t 3-5 nm. Thi gian trung bnh ca pha hng thnh l 44,8 thng v ca pha suy thoi l 11 thng. i khng hong kinh t nm 1929 c pha suy thoi ko di nht: 43 thng t nm 1929 n 1933.
Khng hong du m 1973 Khng hong ti chnh chu 1997
Khng hong n Chu u & Khng hong chnh tr Trung ng Khng hong ti chnh (Lehman Shock) 2008
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Tng cung
ASLR AS
AD
M hnh AS-AD s tr li cho bn cc cu hi sau: Ci g gy ra bin ng kinh t trong ngn hn? Cc chnh sch kinh t c pht huy tc dng nh th no trong giai on khng hong (thu nhp gim v tht nghip tng) ?
ASLR AS AD
Phn chm: Yu t khng xut hin trn th Bin s: tht nghip, li sut, t gi hi oi. Cng c: chnh sch ca chnh ph nh chi tiu, thu v cung ng tin t. Khong thi gian: tm hiu nh hng ca cc chnh sch v phn tch bin ng trong ngn hn xung quanh xu hng di hn ca nn kinh t.
So snh ng Tng cu v ng tng cung Tng cu (AD, Aggregate Demand) Phn nh tng khi lng hng ha v dch v m cc h gia nh, doanh nghip v chnh ph mun mua. (Lng cu) Tng cung (AS, Aggregate Supply) Phn nh tng khi lng hng ha v dch v m doanh nghip mun cung ng cho nn kinh t. (Lng cung)
Mc gi Price Level
Mc gi Price Level
ASLR AS
Tng cung AS Aggregate Supply
AD
ng Tng cung AS
ng Tng cu AD
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Tng cu (AD, Aggregate Demand) Tng cu (AD) l tng khi lng hng ha v dch v (quantity of goods and services produced domestically) c to ra trong phm vi lnh th mt nc m cc ch th kinh t (h gia nh, doanh nghip, chnh ph) sn sng mua (willing to purchase).
Consumption
Tiu dng ca cc h gia nh
Investment
u t ca doanh nghip
AD
+ NX
Net export
Xut khu rng (=xut khu nhp khu)
Government spending
Chi tiu ca chnh ph
ng tng cu (Aggregate Demand curve) c dng ng cho dc xung t tri sang phi (downward to the right)
Mc gi Price Level P1
ng Tng cu AD
P2
Cu hi
V sao ng Tng cu c dng ng cho dc xung ? 1. Ban u hng ha c bn vi gi P1, tng ng vi tng sn lng Y1
Mc gi Price Level P1
Y1
V sao ng Tng cu c dng ng cho dc xung ? 1. Ban u hng ha c bn vi gi P1, tng ng vi tng sn lng Y1 2. Sau , hng gim gi t P1 xung P2, khin cho lng cu tng thm
Mc gi Price Level P1
P2
Y1
V sao ng Tng cu c dng ng cho dc xung ? 1. Ban u hng ha c bn vi gi P1, tng ng vi tng sn lng Y1 2. Sau , hng gim gi t P1 xung P2, khin cho lng cu tng thm 3. Lc ny tng sn lng cng tng tng ng t Y1 n Y2
Mc gi Price Level P1
P2
Y1
Y2
V sao ng Tng cu c dng ng cho dc xung ? 1. Ban u hng ha c bn vi gi P1, tng ng vi tng sn lng Y1 2. Sau , hng gim gi t P1 xung P2, khin cho lng cu tng thm 3. Lc ny tng sn lng cng tng tng ng t Y1 n Y2 4. Ni cc im ny li s to ra ng tng cu
Mc gi Price Level P1
P2
Y1
Y2
Cu hi
V sao khi mc gi (Price Level) st gim s lm tng lng cu v hng ho v dch v (Real GDP)?
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Lin h
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