nh gi cc ri ro trong d n xy dng

cng trnh giao thng vit nam hin nay

Trnh thy anh
B mn Qun tr kinh doanh
Trng i Giao thng Vn ti

Tm tt: Trong cc d n xy dng cng trnh giao thng, ri ro ht sc a dng do bn
cht phc tp ca cc d n ny cng nh tc ng ca mi trng kinh t - x hi - lut php -
vn ho lun bin ng v y ry nhng bt trc kh lng. Bi vit ny nhm tm hiu
nguyn nhn gy ra ri ro v phn tch hu qu do cc ri ro mang li trong cc d n. y l
c s cho vic xut cc gii php qun l ri ro cho cc D n xy dng Cng trnh giao
thng (DAXD CTGT).
T kho: ri ro d n, d n xy dng cng trnh giao thng, phn tch ri ro, qun l ri ro
Summary: Risks are diversified in transport construction projects due to their complicated
features as well as continuous changing and unexpected impacts of the economic social
legislation cultural environment on the projects. This paper aims to analyze the causes and
effects of risks in construction projects, which is a basis for countermeasures on risk
management in the construction projects.
Key words: project risk, transport construction project, risk analysis, risk management.

CT 2
I. T VN
Ri ro lun tim n trong mi giai on ca d n. K t khi xc nh ch trng u t,
chun b u t, cho n khi kt thc a d n vo khai thc v s dng, c rt nhiu nhn t
l nguyn nhn trc tip v gin tip gy ra ri ro, ng thi ri ro xy ra cng a n cc hu
qu nht nh. Do vy vic nh gi nguyn nhn v hu qu ca ri ro phi cn c vo cc
khu, cc giai on ca d n. Hnh 1 th hin nhm cc cc ri ro trong DAXD CTGT Vit
Nam hin nay nh gi nguyn nhn v hu qu ri ro.








Hnh 1. nh gi ri ro trong DAXD CTGT Vit Nam hin nay
Ri ro do ch trng u t
sai lch
Ri ro
trong n
b, gii
phng
mt bng
Ri ro
trong
thanh
ton
vn
Ri ro
trong la
chn nh
thu
Ri ro trong trin khai & iu hnh
k hoch u t
Giai on
chun b d n
Giai on thc
hin d n
Giai on khai
thc d n
Ri ro
trong th
cng,
nghim
thu,
thanh
ton
Ri ro
trong
qun l
v trin
khai thc
hin d
n
Ri ro
trong
kho st,
thit k
Ri ro
do bin
ng
nn kinh
t, gi
c
Ri ro
trong b
tr v s
dng vn
Ri ro trong qu trnh khai thc


II. NH GI NGUYN NHN V HU QU CA CC RI RO TRONG GIAI OAN CHUN
BI DU N
nh gi nguyn nhn v hu qu ca cc ri ro c nguyn nhn t ch trng u
t sai lm.
Vic xc nh ch trng u t c ngha quan trng i vi hiu qu kinh t, hiu qu x
hi ca DAXD CTGT. Cc ri ro do sai lm v ch trng u t s gy mt hiu qu u t,
gy hu qu nghim trng nh lng ph, tht thot bao gm c lng ph trc tip v lng ph gin
tip. Cc ri ro do ch trng u t bao gm: ri ro trong cng tc quy hoch, trong khu quyt
nh u t, c trnh by c th nh sau:
Cc ri ro do u t khng c quy hoch, khng theo quy hoch, cht lng quy hoch
cha cao, quy hoch khng ph hp vi c im kinh t x hi ca vng lm cc mc tiu
ca d n khng t c. Nguyn nhn gy ra cc ri ro ny l do quy hoch cha i trc
mt bc, tm nhn ngn, thiu tnh chin lc, thiu s lin kt cht ch gia cc quy hoch,
cha nh gi ht cc yu t khch quan nn nh hng ca quy hoch cn yu, nhiu quy
hoch mang tnh ch quan.
Quyt nh u t cha ph hp vi quy hoch, cha nghin cu k th trng, thiu thng
tin, cng tc d bo cha tt, khng tnh ton ng quy lut cung - cu cng l nhng nguyn
nhn gy ri ro tc ng n hiu qu d n.
Cc ri ro do u t theo phong tro, b tr vn u t phn tn, dn tri, thi gian xy
dng ko di, n ng vn trong xy dng c bn ln gy hu qu nng n n d n, lm
gim hiu qu u t.
CT 2
Cc ri ro do chn sai a im u t, khng ph hp vi iu kin a l, kinh t x hi
c tc ng trc tip n hiu qu d n, tc ng n mc tiu d n, lm cho khi trin khai
thc hin d n phi sa i, iu chnh, gy hu qu l tnh trng lng ph, tht thot ln vn
u t, tn km chi ph gii phng mt bng, xy dng cng trnh...
Ri ro do thay i ch trng u t, xc nh quy m d n, la chn thit b, cng ngh
xy dng, phng n thi cng khng chnh xc cng dn n khng ph hp vi c im,
iu kin t nhin v kinh t x hi ca khu vc, gim hiu qu u t.
Cc ri ro do cng tc thm nh d n cn hn ch, th hin vic phn tch, nh gi
cc mt k thut, cng ngh, kinh t ti chnh trc khi ra quyt nh u t thc hin cha
y : b st ni dung, nh gi sai lch cc ni dung d n l cc ri ro lm nh hng n
mc tiu d n. Ngoi ra cng tc lp v ph duyt d n, trong thc t cng cn nhiu bt cp
nh d n cha c iu kin quy nh c ghi k hoch cp vn, mang li hu qu
nghim trng n hiu qu d n. Mt khc cn cc ri ro khc lin quan n cng tc thm
nh v ra quyt nh u t nh ri ro do ko di thi gian thm nh, do ch, ch trng ca
cp c thm quyn tc ng kh mnh n hiu qu d n. Nguyn nhn gy cc ri ro ny l
do h thng vn bn cn bt cp, thng tin yu km.


nh gi nguyn nhn v hu qu ca cc ri ro trong cng tc trin khai v iu
hnh k hoch u t hng nm
Nhiu ri ro c kh nng xut hin trong qu trnh trin khai v iu hnh k hoch u t
hng nm. Cc ri ro ny c th do nhiu nguyn nhn gy ra, v a n hu qu l lng ph,
tht thot, tiu cc, tham nhng trong cc DAXD CTGT. C th k n cc vn sau:
- Cc ri ro do b tr danh mc cc d n u t trong k hoch u t hng nm qu phn
tn, khng st vi tin thi cng c ph duyt, gy hu qu kh nng n, th hin ch
danh mc u t cng nhiu, thi gian u t cng b ko di, hu qu ca ri ro nh gy lng
ph vn u t c v trc tip v gin tip cng ln.
- Cc ri ro do b tr vn u t phn tn, dn tri, khng ng quy nh, thiu tp trung,
thiu tnh k tha trong quy hoch, k hoch, s lng d n nhm B, C nm sau ln hn nm
trc, hoc cc d n khng iu kin b tr k hoch vn ghi vo k hoch vn u t
hng nm lm cho vic trin khai k hoch gp kh khn, phi ch i, hoc khi c khi lng
thc hin vn khng iu kin thanh ton cng l cc ri ro tc ng ng k n mc tiu
d n. Cc ri ro ny gy nn tnh trng chim dng vn v n ng ln, ko di gy lng ph,
tht thot.
- Cc ri ro do b tr k hoch u t hng nm cho cc d n khng theo st cc mc tiu
nh hng ca chin lc, ca k hoch 5 nm, hoc khng theo st tin u t thc hin
d n c cp c thm quyn ph duyt trong quyt nh u t l cc ri ro gy hu
qu nng n, gin tip lm tht thot, lng ph vn u t sau ny, bi khi d n hon thnh a
vo khai thc, s dng s thiu ng b vi cc hot ng khc ca cc ngnh v c x hi.
CT 2
III. NH GI NGUYN NHN V HU QU CA RI RO TRONG GIAI OAN THUC HIN
DU N
nh gi nguyn nhn v hu qu ca cc ri ro trong kho st thit k
Vit Nam, cc ri ro trong khu kho st thit k kh nhiu v ph bin. Theo s liu
thng k, khi thanh tra nh nc tin hnh kim tra 31 d n th c ti 40% d n gp ri ro
trong khu thit k.
Cc ri ro do khu thit k: cht lng h s thit k cha cao, khng theo ng cc quy
phm, quy chun v k thut; h s thit k khng ph hp vi tnh hnh thc t v a cht, a
hnh, thu vn, iu kin thi tit, c im ti nguyn, nguyn vt liu, thit b u vo, ngun
nhn lc l cc ri ro mang li hu qu nng n i vi d n, dn n nhng tht thot, lng
ph trong qu trnh thi cng DAXD, nh hng n hiu qu u t.
Cc ri ro do cht lng cng tc kho st khng tt, khng ng quy chun, tiu chun
l cc ri ro tc ng ng k n d n, lm cho cng trnh phi iu chnh thit k, ph i lm
li, gy hu qu ko di thi gian thi cng, pht sinh chi ph, lm gim hiu qu u t.


Cc ri ro trong khu lp v qun l tng d ton, d ton, thc cht l ri ro lin quan n
vn qun l chi ph hay qun l gi trong hot ng u t. Cc ri ro do k khng khi
lng, thit k sai dn n phi ph i lm li theo thit k iu chnh hoc b sung, tnh ton
khi lng sai quy phm quy chun s dn n hu qu l tht thot, lng ph, tiu cc trong
qun l d n. S dng sai nh mc kinh t k thut cng l nhng ri ro gy tc ng nhiu
n vic m bo t c mc tiu d n. p dng sai gi c hoc tnh sai khi lng; tng d
ton phi chnh sa nhiu l cc ri ro gy hu qu nng n.
nh gi nguyn nhn v hu qu ca cc ri ro trong n b, gii phng mt bng
y l lnh vc nhy cm c v kinh t v x hi, d bc l nhng s h gy ra ri ro. Cng
tc n b d dn n cc ri ro do tiu cc nh sau:
- Ri ro do n b gii phng mt bng khng ng i tng, khng tho ng, k khai
khng khi lng n b, lm gi h s nhn tin n b, bt xn tin n b ca dn dn
n hu qu l lm tng thm vn u t XDCT. Mt khc ngi dn l i tng chu tc ng
nng n nht, nhiu h gia nh di chuyn khi mnh t ca mnh nhiu nm m cha nhn
c tin n b, cha c b tr ti nh c.
- Ri ro do bn giao mt bng xy dng khng ng thi hn quy nh lm chm tin thi
cng ca cng trnh, gy lng ph, mt hiu qu u t.
Nhn chung, cc ri ro ny l do c ch n b, gii phng mt bng v ti nh c cha r
rng, tho ng, cn nhiu bt cp v gi, ch n b dn n cc bt cp khi tin hnh
trin khai thc hin gii phng mt bng, gy tc ng n hiu qu d n. i tng chu ri ro
khng ch l ch u t, nh thu, t vn, m cng ng ngi dn l i tng chu ri ro nhiu
hn c.
CT 2
nh gi nguyn nhn v hu qu ri ro trong b tr v s dng vn
Ri ro trong b tr v s dng vn c th do nhiu nguyn nhn gy ra, ng thi chng
cng mang li cc hu qu nghim trng i vi d n, th hin c th nh sau:
- Cc ri ro trong b tr k hoch vn mt s a phng, nhiu cng trnh khi cng
khng c b tr vn, khi lng xy dng c bn hon thnh khng c vn thanh ton dt
im gy tc ng nng n, thit hi v kinh t cho cc nh thu.
- Cc ri ro do trin khai k hoch gii ngn hng nm b chm, b tr vn i ng chm,
ng thi vi vic chm v thiu vn s gy hin tng tiu cc l chy ch tiu k hoch, chy
vn. y l mt trong cc ri ro gy hu qu l lng ph, tht thot v lm cho ng vn s
dng km hiu qu.
S d c cc ri ro ni trn l do c ch phn b vn cha r rng, nht qun; v th vn
c s dng lng ph, sai mc ch, v khng ng ch . Hu qu l tnh hnh n ng kh
ph bin trong xy dng y cc doanh nghip vo tnh trng ph sn do phi chu li sut


ngn hng m khng c bn A thanh ton.
nh gi nguyn nhn v hu qu ca cc ri ro trong khu la chn nh thu
Trong khu ny d xut hin cc ri ro nh sau:
- Cc ri ro do khng thc hin ng trnh t u thu; xt thu, nh gi xp loi v la
chn nh thu khng chnh xc, thiu chun mc; vic chun b t chc u thu khng m
bo cht lng Cc ri ro ny dn n tnh trng tiu cc v tht thot vn v ti sn trong
u t xy dng cng trnh. Hin tng thng thu gia cc nh thu hoc ch u t thng
ng vi mt hoc nhiu n v tham gia u thu nng gi cng trnh chia. Ngoi ra, ch
u t c th thng nht cc nh thu tham gia u thu mt nh thu trng thu vi iu
kin u i. y l cc ri ro gy hu qu cc k nghim trng n vic m bo hon thnh
mc tiu d n.
- Cc ri ro do nh thu b thu gi qu thp, hoc ch u t c th thng nht gi b
thu thp trng thu, khi thi cng s cho php pht sinh v quyt ton cao hn gi trng
thu (R039) cng gy hu qu cc k nghim trng.
Cc nguyn nhn gy ra cc ri ro ny ch yu l do c ch la chn nh thu cha r
rng, cha c c ch thc hin u thu minh bch.
nh gi nguyn nhn v hu qu ca ri ro trong thi cng, nghim thu
Trong qu trnh thi cng, nghim thu khi lng c th xy ra cc ri ro nh sau:
CT 2
- Cc ri ro do p dng nh mc, n gi sai; cc ri ro do thi cng khng m bo khi
lng xy lp theo thit k c duyt, mt s khi lng xy lp khng so vi thit k c
duyt vn c thanh ton; cc ri ro do k khai, nghim thu khng khi lng hoc nh gi
sai cht lng cng trnh; khi thm tra thm nh khng ng lm tng vn u t xy dng
cng trnh l cc ri ro gy hu qu nng n n hiu qu ca d n, th hin vic gy lng
ph tht thot vn u t, ng thi cht lng cng trnh kh m bo.
- Cc ri ro do phng n u t xy dng b st hoc khng c gii php bo v mi
trng, gii php an ton lao ng trong qu trnh thi cng l cc ri ro dn n vic d n
khng t c mc tiu, chng hn xy ra cc s c k thut gy hu qu lm tht thot, lng
ph v ngi v ti sn.
Ngoi ra cn c cc ri ro khc nh ri ro do p lc y nhanh tin (R053) cng gy tc
ng n d n v mt cht lng.
Cc ri ro do khan him, bin ng v gi nguyn vt liu, my mc thit b, lao ng thay
i l cc ri ro gy tc ng ln n d n, lm gia tng chi ph v ko di thi gian thc hin
d n.
nh gi nguyn nhn v hu qu ri ro trong cng tc qun l v trin khai thc


hin d n
Cc ri ro lin quan n cng tc qun l v trin khai thc hin d n l nh sau:
- Cc ri ro do mt s c ch, chnh sch chm ban hnh, sa i cho ph hp vi tnh
hnh thc t, mt s c ch cha mnh, cha c cc ch ti nghim khc i vi cc bn lin
quan tham gia vo DAXD (cc cp c thm quyn quyt nh u t, ch u t, t vn, nh
thu) l cc ri ro gy hu qu nghim trng, lm lng ph vn u t v gy ko di thi gian
d n. Nguyn nhn ca cc ri ro ny l do chm nghin cu, ban hnh cc c ch, chnh
sch ph hp vi c ch th trng; mt s chnh sch c ban hnh khi pht hin cha ph
hp vi tnh hnh thc t th chm sa i, b sung.
- Cc ri ro do tiu cc c th ni l cc ri ro cc k nghim trng, gy hu qu lng ph
vn u t, gy ko di thi gian v nh hng n cht lng cng trnh. Nguyn nhn do c
ch xin - cho, th tc hnh chnh cn nhiu bt cp.
- Cc ri ro lin quan n nng lc ca cc ch th tham gia hot ng xy dng bao gm
ch u t, ban qun l d n, t vn, nh thu cha tng xng vi yu cu ca cng vic
qun l v thc hin d n, gy ra cc hu qu ln nh hng n mc tiu d n v mt chi
ph, thi gian, v cht lng d n.
- Ri ro lin quan n yu t con ngi nh ri ro do thc chp hnh, k cng, cc quy
nh ca php lut ca cc t chc c nhn tham gia hot ng xy dng cn cha nghim
(R036); do t cch, o c yu km, thc tun th php lut, nng lc, trch nhim ca cn
b cn hn ch (R040) tc ng n mc tiu d n.
CT 2
- Cc ri ro lin quan n qun l hp ng nh iu kin, thi gian hp ng d kin
khng y , ph hp gy tc ng ng k n mc tiu d n.
- Ri ro do thiu s h tr, quan tm, cng tc ca cc bn lin quan cng gy hu qu
lm pht sinh chi ph, v ko di thi gian d n.
nh gi nguyn nhn v hu qu ca cc ri ro trong khu quyt ton vn u t,
bn giao a cng trnh vo khai thc s dng
Trong khu nghim thu, quyt ton vn u t, bn giao a cng trnh vo khai thc s
dng c th xy ra cc ri ro nh sau:
- Cc ri ro do n ng, kh khn v ti chnh, khng xc nh r ngun vn, khng c vn
gy hu qu l nh thu phi chu nhiu thit hi v mt kinh t.
- Cc ri ro do qu nhiu th tc trong qu trnh thanh ton, gy tc ng tiu cc n vic
hon thnh mc tiu d n, ko di thi gian, thit hi kinh t cho nh thu.
- Cc ri ro do cha iu kin, th tc, h s hon cng c th thanh ton vn u t
cng l cc ri ro gy nhiu tc ng bt li nh lm ko di thi gian, gy pht sinh chi ph cho


nh thu v ch u t.
- Cc ri ro do thanh quyt ton khng so vi gi tr thc t thc hin, bt xn hoc s
dng chi ph xy dng cng trnh khng ng quy nh cng gy cc hu qu nng n.
IV. NH GI NGUYN NHN V HU QU CA CC RI RO TRONG GIAI OAN KHAI
THC DU N
Trong giai on khai thc d n ni ln mt s vn nh sau:
Vic qun l khai thc cha cht ch, trit , cn xy ra cc hin tng nh vi phm nh
mc ti trng, ngi dn v thc v c ph hoi cng trnh, gy hu qu l vn b ra u
t khng thu hi c, cng trnh xung cp nhanh chng, gy thit hi ln cho x hi v ton
b cng ng.
Cc ri ro do qun l yu km, do cng tc thu ph khng hiu qu.
Chi ph cho duy tu, sa cha khng cung cp y . Chi ph cho bo dng sa cha l
khong 20% chi ph xy dng CTGT i vi cc quc l, cn cc ng tnh, huyn l, ng
x, thn chi ph ny thm ch khng c. Chi ph duy tu bo dng ng phi (i vi nc
ngoi chim t l kh ln), th mi c th m bo duy tr tnh trng khai thc tt, duy tr tui th
cng trnh. Nu sau 5 nm con ng khng c duy tu bo dng thch hp th xung cp
nghim trng, thm ch h hng hon ton, v tin sa cha lc ny s bng tin xy dng mt
tuyn ng mi. Chi ph duy tu sa cha nu qu t i s lm gim cht lng cng trnh, nh
hng n hiu qu d n. Khi chi ph cho duy tu, sa cha khng c cung cp y , tnh
trng n ng ko di trin min s khin cho cc n v trc tip qun l v bo tr ng b
gp rt nhiu kh khn, h phi vay tin vi mt li sut nht nh no duy tu sa cha
nhm tn ti cng ty m bo cng n vic lm cho cn b cng nhn vin. Mt khc, CTGT do
khng c bo tr kp thi xung cp nhanh chng, nh hng trc tip n chi ph khai
thc vn ti v an ton trong vn hnh.
CT 2
Li sut trong tng lai thay i s nh hng n ngun thu, chi v suy cho cng l nh
hng n mc tiu ca d n.
Mt khc gi c nguyn vt liu dng cho duy tu sa cha c th thay i. Trong thi gian
khai thc, cc chi ph u vo thay i s dn n sai lch mc tiu ca d n, tc ng n
cc hiu qu ti chnh v kinh t x hi.
Kt qu u ra ca DAXD CTGT l s lng phng tin s dng d n v cc khon thu
t ngi s dng ng khng chnh xc do cng tc d bo cn nhiu sai st, s dn n hai
hin trng: mt l n tc giao thng do lu lng phng tin thc t cao hn d kin, gy tn
tht chi ph x hi m ngi s dng ng v ton b cng ng phi gnh chu; hai l ng
to rng trong khi phng tin tham gia giao thng tha tht do lu lng thc t qu thp hn d
kin, s gy tht thu cho d n. C hai tnh trng ny u dn n hu qu l gim st hiu qu
ti chnh, kinh t x hi ca d n.


V. KT LUN
Phn ln cc ri ro gy hu qu nng n n d n, u c nguyn nhn l do thiu cc
ch ti nghim khc, mnh x l cc ch th tham gia hot ng xy dng khi c vi
phm, nh: quy hoch cha m bo, quyt nh u t sai, b tr vn phn tn, dn tri, n
b v gii phng mt bng thit k khng tun th quy trnh k thut, khng m bo cht
lng, sai phm trong u thu nh thng thu, bn thu, thi cng cng trnh khng m bo
cht lng, qun l d n khng tt gy lng ph, tht thot, c ch cho duy tu bo dng sa
cha khng c C ch "xin-cho", tnh trng "khp kn" thc hin ca qu trnh u t xy dng
trong cng mt B, ngnh nh hin nay lm ny sinh nhiu ri ro gy hu qu nghim trng
n d n. Ngoi ra, nng lc ca cc i tng tham gia d n yu km, cha tng xng vi
nhim v cng vic thc hin cng l nguyn nhn gy nhiu ri ro trong d n.
c th qun l d n mt cch hiu qu t cc mc tiu ra, cn ch trng cng tc
qun l ri ro d n, trong phn tch nguyn nhn v cc hu qu do ri ro gy ra rt quan
trng v c ngha i vi vic xut cc gii php c th.

Ti liu tham kho
[1]. Trnh Thu Anh (2005). "Mt s vn v xc nh ri ro d n", Tp ch Khoa hc Giao thng Vn ti,
s 11, thng 6 nm 2005.
CT 2
[2]. Trnh Thu Anh (2005). "Phng php phn tch ri ro d n", Tp ch Khoa hc Giao thng Vn ti, s
12, thng 11 nm 2005.
[3]. B Xy dng (2004). n chng lng ph, tht thot trong u t xy dng, H Ni.
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[5]. GS. TS. Nguyn Vn Chn (1999). Qun l nh nc v kinh t v qun tr kinh doanh trong xy dng,
NXB Xy dng.
[6]. GS. TSKH. Nghim Vn Dnh (ch bin) (2000). Kinh t xy dng CTGT, NXB Giao thng vn ti, H
Ni.
[7]. Caltrans (2003). Project Risk Management Handbook, 1st edition, Office of Project Management
Process Improvement.
[8]. Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward (1999). Project Risk Management - Processes, Techniques and
Insights, John Wiley & Sons.
[9]. David Hilson (1998). "Managing Risk", Project Management Review January. p31.
[10]. Roger Flanagan and George Norman (1993). Risk Management and Construction, Blackwell
Scientific Publication