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2007 AIChE-ACS Management Conference Managing CPI Energy and Raw Materials Uncertainties in a Global Context
April 25, 2007 Houston, Texas A. Michael Schaal Director, Oil and Gas Division Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting Energy Information Administration
Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government
History
Projections
High Price $100
80
60
40
20
0 1980
History
1990 2000 2005 2010
Projections
2020 2030
* Foreign low-sulfur light crude oil prices 2007 AIChE-ACS Management Conference
History
Projections
High Price $157
120
Reference case $95
80
Low Price $58
40
75 50 25 0 1960
Coal
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Liquid Fuels Production, Consumption, and Imports (million barrels per day)
30
History
Projections
25
20
61%
15
10
Production
5
Domestic Crude Oil Production by Source, 1990-2030 (million barrels per day)
8
History
Projections
Total
Alaska
0 1990 1995 2000 2005
Ethanol Consumption as E85 and Blended with Motor Gasoline, 1981-2030 (billion gallons)
20
History Projections
15
10
Ethanol in E85
0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
8 4 0 2003
Corn Based
2008
2013
2018
2023
2028
Non-conventional Petroleum Liquids Capital Investment Costs (2005 thousand dollars per daily barrel of capacity)
Shale Oil Oil Sands Extra-Heavy Oil Biomass-To-Liquids Coal-To-Liquids Gas-To-Liquids Ethanol (Corn) Biodiesel Oil Refinery 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Gas-to-Liquids, Coal-to-Liquids, and Oil Shale Production in the Price Cases, 1990-2030 (million barrels per day)
History Projections
Coal to Liquids/ High price
Coal to Liquids/ Reference Oil Shale/High price Gas to Liquids/ High price 2030
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Imports, 1980-2030 (trillion cubic feet)
30
History
25
Net imports
21%
20.6 Tcf
20
15
Natural Gas Net Imports, 2005 and 2030 (trillion cubic feet)
7 6 5 4 3
2005 2030
10
4.5
3.0
2 1 0
0.9
Pipeline
History
Projections
Industrial
8
Electric Power
Residential
Commercial
2
Transportation
0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Coal Hydro
Nuclear
History
Projections
Technically Recoverable U.S. Natural Gas Resources as of January 1, 2005 (trillion cubic feet)
Proved 193 Inferred nonassociated
176 50
226 283
126
Undiscovered nonassociated
119 164
Unconventional
278
478
Other unproved
131 31
162
200 300 400
100
500
600
Lower 48 Natural Gas Wellhead Prices in Three Cases, 1980-2030 (2005 dollars per thousand cubic feet)
8
History
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Projections
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Lower 48 Natural Gas Wellhead Prices in Three Cases, 1980-2030 (nominal dollars per thousand cubic feet)
12
History
10
Projections
0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030