The

Death Of The PC
Nicholas Carlson
Deputy Editor, Business Insider

The iPhone is six years old,

and the iPad, three.

The Internet has made the

desktop OS irrelevant

Is the PC Dead yet?

Lets look at sales

PC sales have been at since 2009

Global#PC#Shipments#By#Manufacturer#
100,000"
iPad"released"

90,000"
80,000"
70,000"

Other#

60,000"
50,000"

Apple#

40,000"

Acer#

30,000"

Dell#
Lenovo#

20,000"
10,000"

HP#

0"
1Q08" 2Q08" 3Q08" 4Q08" 1Q09" 2Q09" 3Q09" 4Q09" 1Q10" 2Q10" 3Q10" 4Q10" 1Q11" 2Q11" 3Q11" 4Q11" 1Q12" 2Q12" 3Q12"
Source:(Gartner,(IDC(

Smartphone sales are bigger than PC sales

Global)Internet)Device)Sales)
)1,000,000,000))
)900,000,000))
)800,000,000))

Tablets)
)700,000,000))
)600,000,000))

Units) )500,000,000))
Smartphones)

)400,000,000))
)300,000,000))
)200,000,000))

Personal)Computers)

)100,000,000))
)3))))
2000)

2001)

2002)

2003)

2004)

2005)

Source:(Gartner,(IDC,(Strategy(Analy5cs,(company(lings,(BI(Intelligence(es5mates(

2006)

2007)

2008)

2009)

2010)

2011)

Growth in computer sales is coming from tablets

Global$Computer$Shipments$
140,000"
120,000"

Tablets$

(thousands)$

100,000"
80,000"
60,000"
40,000"

PCs$

20,000"
0"
1Q08"2Q08"3Q08"4Q08"1Q09"2Q09"3Q09"4Q09"1Q10"2Q10"3Q10"4Q10"1Q11"2Q11"3Q11"4Q11"1Q12"2Q12"3Q12"
Source:(Gartner,(IDC,(Strategy(Analy5cs(company(releases(

People buy more than one iPad per household

How Many iPads Are In Your Household?

Add the sales up, and you get the collapse of

Microsoft/Intel
Share of Personal Computing Platforms

Consumers are going to

buy more tablets and fewer
PCs

More adults want to buy a tablet than a computer this year

What people over 13 want to buy in the next 6 months
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

iPad and/or non-Apple Tablet

Source: Estimates based on Nielsen data

Computer

The trend spikes higher among kids

What kids want to buy in the next 6 months
90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
iPad and/or non-Apple Tablet

Source: Estimates based on Nielsen data

Computer

A majority spend 2+ hours on tablets every day

On Average, How Many Hours Do You Use Your iPad?

Source: Business Insider survey

Tablet sales will pass notebook sales this year

Source: NPD

People who already own iPads are using them

MORE as time goes by
Has Your iPad Usage Increased Or Decreased Since
Your Initial Experimental Period?

Source: Business Insider/Survey Monkey

This usage shift is showing up in ecommerce

Ecommerce#Website#Trac#By#Device#
100%#

Tablet#
Smartphone#

90%#
80%#
70%#
60%#

PC#

50%#
40%#
30%#
20%#
10%#
0%#
Q1#2011#

Q2#2011#

Source:(Monetate(

Q3#2011#

Q4#2011#

Q1#2012#

Q2#2012#

Q3#2012#

By 2015, Fixed PCs will be a small minority

of Internet connected devices
G>20&Internet&Access&
3,000&

2,500&

2,000&
Consumer&
Broadband&
1,500&
Connec:ons&
(milions)&

Mobile&

1,000&
Mobile&

500&
Fixed&

Fixed&

2005&

2010&

Fixed&

0&
2015&

Source:(Boston(Consul/ng(Group,(Mary(Meeker,(Kleiner(Perkins,(Morgan(Stanley(Research,(Berg(Insight(

Sois the PC dead?

Nope.

A truer statement is:

The home PC is dead

Mostly, people use their tablets at home

Where do you use a tablet?
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Home
Source: Comscore

Public Location

Work

Other

and traditional computers at work

Share Of Device Page Trac Over A Day:

Source: comScore, Telefonica, Macquarie Capital (USA), December 2011

People spend a lot of time

at work

So the answer is NO, the

PC isnt dying

the HOME PC is dying.

Who are the post-PC

winners?

Start with Apple

iOS is crushing Windows

iOS Device vs. Windows Revenue
$40,000,000
$35,000,000
$30,000,000

$20,000,000

Windows Division Revenue

iOS Device Revenue

$15,000,000
$10,000,000
$5,000,000
$0

2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12

Axis Title

$25,000,000

Source: Company releases

iPhone is beating Windows by itself

iPhone vs. Windows Revenue
$30,000,000

$25,000,000

$15,000,000

Windows Division Revenue

iPhone Revenue

$10,000,000

$5,000,000

$0

2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12

Axis Title

$20,000,000

Source: Company releases

iPad is beating Windows, too

iPad vs. Windows Revenue
$10,000,000

$8,000,000

Axis Title

$6,000,000
Windows Division Revenue
iPhone Revenue

$4,000,000

$2,000,000

$0
2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12
Source: Company releases

iPad revenues will soon eclipse Dell revenues

Dell Product vs. iPad Revenue
$14,000,000
$12,000,000

Axis Title

$10,000,000
$8,000,000
Dell Product Revenue
iPad Revenue

$6,000,000
$4,000,000
$2,000,000
$0
2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12
Source: Company releases

Meanwhile, Apple stock has been on a tear

AAPL vs. DELL vs. HPQ vs. MSFT Stock Performance
$700
$600

Apple

$500
$400
$300
$200

Source: Yahoo Finance

10/1/12

7/1/12

4/1/12

Microsoft
1/1/12

10/1/11

4/1/11

1/1/11

10/1/10

Dell

7/1/10

4/1/10

1/1/10

10/1/09

7/1/09

4/1/09

1/1/09

10/1/08

7/1/08

4/1/08

1/1/08

10/1/07

7/1/07

4/1/07

1/1/07

$0

HP

7/1/11

$100

Google is also thriving

post-PC

Google DOMINATES post-PC operating

system market share
Global'Mobile'Pla:orm'Market'Share'
100%#
90%#

Other'

80%#
70%#
60%#
50%#
40%#
30%#

Windows'
Blackberry'
Apple'
Android'

20%#
10%#

0%#
Q1#2009# Q2#2009# Q3#2009# Q4#2009# Q1#2010# Q2#2010# Q3#2010# Q4#2010# Q1#2011# Q2#2011# Q3#2011# Q4#2011# Q1#2012# Q2#2012# Q3#2012#
Source:(Gartner,(IDC,(Strategy(Analy5cs,(BI(Intelligence(es5mates,(and(company(lings#

Google owns post-PC search

Global&Mobile&Search&Market&Share&
100%#
Google&

90%#
80%#
70%#
60%#
50%#
40%#
30%#
20%#
10%#

Yahoo!&

bing&

0%#
Dec# Mar# Jun# Sep# Dec# Mar# Jun# Sep# Dec# Mar# Jun# Sep# Dec# Mar# Jun# Sep#
08# 09# 09# 09# 09# 10# 10# 10# 10# 11# 11# 11# 11# 12# 12## 12#
Source:(Global(StatCounter(

Google takes most of the post-PC ad revenues

Mobile&Ad&Market&Share&
100%#
90%#

Microso4&
Yahoo&

Other&

80%#

Apple&
Pandora&

70%#
60%#

Millennial&Media&

50%#
40%#
30%#

Google&

20%#
10%#
0%#
1Q09#

2Q09#

3Q09#

4Q09#

1Q10#

2Q10#

Source:(news(reports,(company(releases,(BII(es5mates(

3Q10#

4Q10#

1Q11#

2Q11#

3Q11#

4Q11#

Samsung is also winning

Samsung Stock Performance
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0

Source: Yahoo Finance

So far, Facebook is surviving the transition

Facebook Monthly Active Users

1,200

1,000

(millions)

800

600

Total Users
400

Mobile Users

200

Mobile-only

0
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q09 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12
Source: Company releases

iOS app developers are in demand

Apple%App%Store%Downloads%
65,000,000,000"
60,000,000,000"
55,000,000,000"
50,000,000,000"
45,000,000,000"
40,000,000,000"
35,000,000,000"
30,000,000,000"
25,000,000,000"
20,000,000,000"
15,000,000,000"
10,000,000,000"

Source: Company releases

6/1/13"

5/1/13"

4/1/13"

3/1/13"

2/1/13"

1/1/13"

12/1/12"

11/1/12"

10/1/12"

9/1/12"

8/1/12"

7/1/12"

6/1/12"

5/1/12"

4/1/12"

3/1/12"

2/1/12"

1/1/12"

12/1/11"

11/1/11"

10/1/11"

9/1/11"

8/1/11"

7/1/11"

6/1/11"

5/1/11"

4/1/11"

3/1/11"

2/1/11"

0"

1/1/11"

5,000,000,000"

(iOS developers make more more money

than Android developers)
Mobile%App%Revenue%By%Pla<orm%
$4,000#
$3,500#
Other%

$3,000#
(millions)%

Android%%
$2,500#
$2,000#
$1,500#
$1,000#
Apple%iOS%

$500#
$0#
2008#

2009#

2010#

Source:(iSuppli,(Forrester(Research,(company(releases,(BII(es8mates(

2011#

Not everyone is faring so

well

Some companies have not been able to grow

their post-home PC audiences at all
Percentage Gain In Audience Thanks To Mobile-Only Uniques
180%
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%

Pandora
Gannett
Wal-Mart
LinkedIn
Craigslist
Demand Media
VEVO
Microsoft

Source: Comscore

Yahoo is dependent on the PC-based Web, and its

usage is shrinking
Yahoo%Time%Spent%%%vs.%Total%Internet%(U.S.)%
16%#
14%#
12%#
10%#
8%#
6%#
4%#
2%#
0%#
1Q07#2Q07#3Q07#04Q7#1Q08#2Q08#3Q08#4Q08#1Q09#2Q09#3Q09#4Q09#1Q10#2Q10#3Q10#4Q10#1Q11#2Q11#3Q11#4Q11#1Q12#
Source:(comScore,(Ci-(Investment(Research(And(Analysis(

Websites will go away in

favor of apps?

Nope.

RememberPeople still
use PCs at work.

And when theyre using their tablets at home,

people still like to browse the Web
When you read news/information on a TABLET,
which of the following do you do regularly?

Source: Business Insider survey

Thanks for reading.

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