Project On Commodity Exchange

CHAPTER-I
INTRODUCTION OF THE STUDY

INTRODUCTION
This chapter deals with introduction about the study, statement of problem,
objectives of the study, methodology, period of the study, importance of the study and the
limitation of the study.
1.1 INTRODUCTION
The project title Price Fluctuation of selected commodities in Multi
Commodity Exchange was brought under the main head of Derivatives Management.
Before introducing the project, it is necessary to know about the concept of derivatives and
price fluctuation. Because, it gives some basic knowledge about this project and it enriches
your interest in related to these concepts. Derivatives concept is very simple.
1.1.1Derivatives
A financial contract whose value depends on a risk factor, such as
The price of a bond, commodity, currency and share
A yield or rate of interest
An index of prices or yields
Weather data, such as inches of rainfall or heating-degree-days,
Insurance data, such as claims paid for a disastrous earthquake or flood, and the like.
Derivative is generally defined as it is a financial instrument whose value depends on

(or derives from) the value of other, more basis underlying assets, such as stock price, interest
rate, commodity price index of the stocks.
Derivative products are classified as follows:
Forward contract
Future contract
Option
Swap and
Warrants
In these products, forward contract, swap and warrants are generally traded on Over-
The-Counter (OTC) Market and others are in Exchange-Traded Markets.

The type of traders involved in the derivatives market is classified on the basis of nature as
follows:
Hedgers,
Speculators
1.1.1.1 Exchange-Traded Market

A derivative exchange is a market where individuals trade standardized contract that
has been defined by the exchange. Derivative exchanges have existed for a long time. In India,
there are twenty-two exchangetraded markets for stock, two market for derivative and three
exchange-traded markets for commodity. Among them, National Stock Exchange (NSE),
Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) are famous for stock and also for derivative and Multi
Commodity Exchange (MCX) and National commodity and Derivative Exchange (NCDEX) for
commodity.
1.1.2 Commodity Market

Commodity markets are markets where raw or primary products are exchanged. These
raw commodities are traded on regulated exchanges, in which they are bought and sold in
standardized contract. In practice, commodity market deals spot trading and future trading.
In commodity future contracts, the underlying asset of the future contract is a commodity.
Commodity may be bullion, energy, agricultural products or others. In India, three exchanges are
2
dealing the commodity future contracts and their activities are controlled and guided by the SEBI
through Forward Market Commission.
1.1.3 Spot Market

A market in which commodities, such as grain, gold, crude oil, or RAM chips, are
bought and sold for cash and delivered immediately. It is also called cash market. Generally all
exchange-traded market and over-the-exchange markets deal cash transactions.
1.1.4 About project

The determination of price fluctuation of the commodities in Multi Commodity Market is
a very difficult and interested one. This study is related to the determination of the price
fluctuation of selected commodities, which is traded in commodity exchange on the basis of
monthly contract, for selected period of time. Hence, the tools used in the study are suitable for
each type of traders in the commodity market.
1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

In this project, the following problems are taken into consideration:
1.2.1 Price fluctuation

Generally, the future price of a commodity, which is listed on exchange, depends on the
spot price of that commodity. But, there is some deviation available in price due to demand and
supply and other factors. The arbitrage is the opportunity to make profit from that deviation.
Therefore, the arbitrage takes careful steps to calculate actual future price of commodity, which
is derived from the spot price of that commodity. It is very difficult for every arbitrage to
calculate the actual future price arrived.
1.2.2 Volatility
Volatility is the measure of uncertainty about the returns provided by the commodity. The
volatility of the commodity price can be defined as the standard deviation of the return provided
by the commodity in one year when return is expressed using continuous compounding.
Volatility is a very important indicator to speculators to speculate, which is to make profit from
price fluctuations. But, it is not possible that every speculator estimates the volatility of
variables.
1.3 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

The objectives of the study are as follows:
To find actual price fluctuation of selected commodity in MCX market,
To provide technical advice to the investors with appropriate entry and exit level to invest
in commodity market, and
To estimate the volatility of commodity for a chance to the arbitragers.
1.4 HYPOTHESIS
The hypotheses for this study are as follows:
There is an insignificant between the spot price and the open price
There is an insignificant between the open price and the close price
1.5 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

1.5.1 Source of data
The study is mainly based on the secondary data, the data which have been collected
from websites and journals such as.
http://www.sharekhan.com/
http://www.bseindia.com/
http://www.nseindia.com/
4
http://www.ncdex.com/
http://www.mcxindia.com/
http://www.mutualfunds.com/
1.5.2 Methods of sampling

Four commodities are selected for analysis. Simple Random Sampling is used for
selection of commodities. The selection is based on the following criteria
Mostly traded commodities in MCX are selected.
Availability of data also considered for selection.
1.5.3Tools used for Analysis

The following tools are used for analyzing the future price calculation and
calculation of effective hedging price of the commodities.
Moving average
Correlation
Japanese candle stick
1.5.3.1 Moving averages

Moving averages are one of the most popular and easy tool to use. It most probably used
by the technical analysts. They smooth a data series and make it easier to spot trends, something
that is especially helpful in volatile markets. They also form the building blocks for many other
technical indicators and overlays.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): An indicator developed by Gerald Appel
that is calculated by subtracting the 26-period exponential moving average of a given security
from its 12-period exponential moving average. By comparing moving averages, MACD
displays trend following characteristics, and by plotting the difference of the moving averages as
an oscillator, MACD displays momentum characteristics.
Steps for calculating odd number of days (3, 5, 7, and9)
If we want to calculate the three-days moving average, then:
i.
Compute the value of first three days (1, 2, and 3) and place the three year total against
the middle year (i.e., 2nd day).
ii.
Leave the first years value and add up the values of the next three days (i.e.,3rd day).
iii.
This process must be continued until the last months value is taken for calculating
moving average.
1.5.3.2 Volatility
A statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a particular security or market
index. Volatility can be measured by using the standard deviation or the variance between
returns from the same security or market index normally, the higher the volatility, the riskier the
security. A variable in option pricing formulas showing the extent to which the return on the
underlying asset will fluctuate between now and the options expiration date. Volatility, as
expressed as a percentage coefficient within option-pricing formulas, arises out of daily trading
activities. The way volatility is measured affects the value of the coefficient used. The term
volatility indicates how much and how quickly the value of an investment market or market
sector changes.
1.6 PERIOD OF STUDY

The period of study is for three months i.e., from December 2011 to February
2012.
1.7 SCOPE OF THE STUDY

The area of study is determination of price fluctuation of selected commodities in
Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX). The commodities are selected on the basis of availability of
data and mostly traded on MCX platform are as follows:
Gold
Silver
Aluminium
Copper
Among these products, Gold, Silver are the precious metals. Others are non-
precious metals.
1.8 IMPORTANCE OF THE STUDY

Stock market and trading system is a set of instruction which advice opening or
closing trading position based on technical analysis.
The investment in the commodity requires sufficient knowledge on the
behaviors of the commodity and future markets. The trend of each commodity provides a
barometer of how it is performing and captures market, perception and exception. Hence it will
enable investors and others to evaluate the commodity market to select the profitable
commodity.
1.9 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

The limitations of the study are as follows:
The study related to the short span of time that is three months,
Only MCX data are collected.
The project depends on secondary sources and hence limitation of secondary source also
applies to the study.
1.10 CHAPTER SCHEME

The First Chapter deals with the introduction and design of the study.
The Second Chapter contains the profile of the company and review of the
literature.
The Third Chapter reveals measuring price fluctuations using moving average
and candle stick charts.
The Fourth Chapter reveals measuring price fluctuations and movements using
candle stick chart.
The Fifth Chapter deals with price fluctuation calculations using volatility.
The Sixth Chapter often findings, suggestions and conclusion.
CHAPTER II
PROFILE OF THE COMPANY
2.1HISTORY OF THE COMPANY
Share khan ltd is Indias leading online retail broking house with its presence
through -1800+ share shops in over 600 locations and serving more than 1000000 customersacross the nation. Share khan offers its clients trade execution facilities for cash as well as
derivatives, on BSE and NSE, depository services, mutual fund, initial public offerings (IPOs)
and commodities trading facilities on MCX and NCDEX.
Beside high quality investment advice from an experienced research team share
khan provides market related news, stock quotes fundamental and statistical information across
equity, mutual fund, IPOs and much more.
SSIK group also comprises institutional broking and corporate finance. While the
institutional broking division caters to the largest domestic and foreign institutional investors.
The corporate finance division focuses on niche areas such as infrastructure telecom and media.
SSIK holds a sizeable portion of the market in each of these segments.
Share khan ltd has set category leadership through pioneering initiatives like
Speed Trade, a net based executable application that emulates a broker terminal besides
providing information relevant to Day traders.
As the forerunner of investment research in the India market, we provide the best
research coverage amongst broking house in India. Our research team is rated as one of the best
in the country. Voted four times as the top domestic brokerage house by Asia money survey.
SSIK is consistently ranked almagest the top domestic brokerage house in India.
Services provided:
Derivatives trading
Commodities Derivatives Trading
Initial public offer
Mutual fund
Portfolio management services
Currency trading
Derivatives trading
Derivative trading includes trading of future contract and option on stock and index. They
offer derivative trading on the platform of Bombay Stock Exchange and National Stock
Exchange.
Commodity Derivatives Trading
Commodity derivative Trading involves trading of contract relating to the commodity
market or products. DJS is a member of the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX).
Initial public offer
They are also collecting bid cum application for public issue for any company and bided
it instead of client. They are the authorized bidder for the CDSL in Coimbatore.
Mutual funds
They are dealing various mutual funds of fund managing companies such as Standard
Chartered, ING Vysya, Reliance, UTI Franklin Temple and the like.
Portfolio management services
They are also dealing with the portfolio management services to the clients of their
company.
Currency trading
They deal with all foreign exchange currencies for the purpose of their customers.
10
2.1.1MISSION:
To educate and empower the individual investor to make better investment decisions
through quality advice and superior service.
2.1.2VISION:
To be the best retail brokering Brand in the retail business of stock market.
2.1.3 ACHIEVEMENTS OF SHAREKHAN:
A wired company along with Reliance, Hcl, Infosys, etc by Business Today, January
2004 edition.
It was awarded Top Domestic Brokerage House four times by Euro and Asia money.
It was Winner of Best Financial Website award.
Indias most preferred brokers within 5 years. CNBC Awaaz customers Award 2005.
2.1.4STRATEGY:
The main strategies used in our training were as follow.
2.1.4.1DATA CALLING
In data calling the company provided data of mobile numbers and the trainees job was
to generate appointments. After that the trainee were required to convert that appointment
into closure. Apart from given data the trainee also brought latest business directory. The
trainee called to different business people and tried to generate appointments.
2.1.4.2 CALLED CALLING

Called calling means to go at different corporate houses and to meet different
people and to get their visiting card by it we get lead and the trainees immediate task
was to call them & to fix appointment.
11
2.1.4.3 REFERENCE:
Another important strategy was to use the trainee reference means the trainees
family, friends, relatives etc. In marketing or selling the trainee can never neglect
references & they always play a major role.
2.1.4.4 STALL ACTIVITY:
Stall activity means to make stall at public place. Then the trainees job was to
give them a newspaper with brochures and to take their name and contact number. So it
was another process of generating lead. After that the trainees job was to follow up and
try for appointment and closure.
2.1.4.5 HIERARCHY IN SHAREKHAN:

Sales Side
Dealing Side
Trainees
Junior Dealer
Super Trainees
Dealer
Sales Executives
Relationship manager
Senior sales executives
Senior Relationship manager
Business
executive
Equity advisor
development
Assistant sales manager
Assistant Branch Manager
Deputy manager
Branch Manager
12
Territory manager
Cluster Head
Area sales manager/ Cluster

manager
Directors
Regional sales manager
CEO
Regional Head
Vice president
Directors
13
2.2REVIEW OF LITERATURE
James Johnson, On the funding side, Federal National Mortgage Association uses a
variety of risk management derivative instrument to reduce interest rate risk on its mortgage
portfolio and to reduce its debt costs, both of which help lower mortgage rates for American
homeowners.
S. Craig Pirrong, defined that Derivatives offer institutional investors a uniquely
efficient way to manage risk and enhance returns. Any investment strategy that allows pension
funds and other institutional investors to increase return, reduces risks, and cut costs can generate
enormous benefits to retirees and individual investors in mutual funds.
According to International Monetary Fund, The use of such dynamic hedging
methods can generate liquidity problems since they can trigger an avalanche of sales into a
relatively illiquid market for the underlying securities there by collapsing the prices of causing a
break down in trading.
Brain Quinn, said that There are no fundamentally new or different risks in derivative
products, rather familiar kinds of risk are presented and combined in novel ways.
James Johnson, Letter to congress Henry B. Gonzalez, Federal National Mortgage Association,
December 9, 1993.
Pirrong, S. of England. Craig, Regulation, Futures Trading and Institutional Investors the American
Enterprise, Vol.5.January/February 1994.

3
Bank of England. Derivatives: Report of an internal Working Group, April 1993.
14
According to John Board, Charles good hart & Charles Sutcliffe, There is no
significant evidence that spot volatilities have increased since the introduction of index futures.
Hamilton(2000) concluded in his study on different models predicting GNP growth

evolution with the variable of oil price change that theres not enough historical experience to
express this relationship in one clear model in order to make clear predictions. He emphasizes
that its less the level of oil prices suggested by production-function-based models to influence
economic growth than distribution in supplies or surprise in pricing as it proposed by dislocation
based interpretation. This is also evident from the stock market since the relationship has become
even stronger after 1986 when the high price volatility on oil market began.
john Board, Charles Good hard and Charles sutclifee, Inter-Market volatility Linkages:
The London Stock Exchange and London International Financial Futures Exchanges, Securities
and investment Board, June 1992.
6
Hamilton, Volatility and economic activity, IEA Research Paper.
15
CHAPTER III
MEASURING PRICE FLUCTUATION USING MOVING
AVERAGE METHOD
3.1 INTRODUCTION
MOVING AVERAGE
This chapter deals with the analysis of price fluctuation of selected commodities using
Moving Average Analysis of 4 selected commodities.
The following are the description about the column used in the table, which showed the
analysis of moving average analysis.
Column
Column Name
Description
Date
Trading Date
Close price
Moving average
Close Price in Rupees

Moving average calculated for every month
available for trading in Rupees.
16
MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO MARCH

2012
MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011
TABLE 3.1
GOLD DECEMBER 2011

Date
Close Price(Rs) Moving avg
1-Dec-11
28888
2-Dec-11
28891
3-Dec-11
28943
28907.333
5-Dec-11
28943
28925.667
6-Dec-11
29772
29219.333
7-Dec-11
30090
29601.667
8-Dec-11
30069
29977
9-Dec-11
29955
30038
10-Dec-11
29955
29993
12-Dec-11
29695
29868.333
13-Dec-11
29764
29804.667
14-Dec-11
29055
29504.667
15-Dec-11
28493
29104
16-Dec-11
28387
28645
17-Dec-11
28508
28462.667
19-Dec-11
28498
28464.333
20-Dec-11
28753
28586.333
21-Dec-11
28904
28718.333
22-Dec-11
28646
28767.667
23-Dec-11
28662
28737.333
24-Dec-11
28716
28674.667
26-Dec-11
28716
28698
27-Dec-11
28716
28716
28-Dec-11
28286
28572.667
29-Dec-11
27602
28201.333
CHART 3.1
DECEMBER 2011
30500
30000
29500
29000
28500
28000
27500
27000
1
17
11 13 15 17 19 21 23
MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012
TABLE 3.2
GOLD JANUARY 2012
Date
Close(Rs)
Moving avg
2-Jan-12
27382
3-Jan-12
27656
4-Jan-12
27852
27630
5-Jan-12
27821
27776.333
6-Jan-12
27755
27809.333
7-Jan-12
27762
27779.333
9-Jan-12
27578
27698.333
10-Jan-12
27537
27625.667
11-Jan-12
27657
27590.667
12-Jan-12
27665
27619.667
13-Jan-12
27427
27583
14-Jan-12
27507
27533
16-Jan-12
27484
27472.667
17-Jan-12
27588
27526.333
18-Jan-12
27475
27515.667
19-Jan-12
27347
27470
20-Jan-12
27448
27423.333
21-Jan-12
27490
27428.333
23-Jan-12
27510
27482.667
24-Jan-12
27383
27461
25-Jan-12
27589
27494
27-Jan-12
27957
27643
28-Jan-12
27990
27845.333
30-Jan-12
28059
28002
31-Jan-12
28078
28042.333
CHART 3.2
JANUARY 2012
28200
28000
27800
27600
27400
27200
27000
1
18
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012

TABLE 3.3
GOLD FEBRUARY 2012
Date
Close price
Moving avg
1-Feb-12
28083
2-Feb-12
28155
3-Feb-12
27711
27983
4-Feb-12
27948
27938
6-Feb-12
28950
28203
7-Feb-12
28950
28616
8-Feb-12
29306
29068.67
9-Feb-12
29326
29194
10-Feb-12
29279
29303.67
11-Feb-12
29272
29292.33
13-Feb-12
29155
29235.33
14-Feb-12
29062
29163
15-Feb-12
29246
29154.33
16-Feb-12
29161
29156.33
17-Feb-12
29141
29182.67
18-Feb-12
29141
29147.67
20-Feb-12
29156
29146
21-Feb-12
29425
29240.67
22-Feb-12
29600
29393.67
23-Feb-12
29918
29647.67
24-Feb-12
29780
29766
25-Feb-12
29730
29809.33
27-Feb-12
29739
29749.67
28-Feb-12
29957
29808.67
29-Feb-12
29091
29595.67
CHART 3.3
FEBRUARY 2012
30000
29500
29000
28500
28000
27500
27000
1
19
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
INTERPRETATION
The above tables and charts reveal the price fluctuation of gold.
In the December month, the maximum price is Rs.30,090 and the minimum price is
Rs.27,602. In the January month, the maximum price is Rs.28,078 and the minimum price is
Rd.27,347. In the February month, the maximum price is Rs.29,957 and the minimum price is
27,711. It indicates that in the month of January there was high decline of gold because of the
recession and in the month of February there was a high fluctuation throughout the month.
20
MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO MARCH

2012
MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011
TABLE 3.4
CHART 3.4
SILVER DECEMBER 2011

Date Close(Rs)
Moving
avg
1-Dec-11
54953
2-Dec-11
55076
3-Dec-11
55270 55099.667
5-Dec-11
55501 55282.333
6-Dec-11
60101 56957.333
7-Dec-11
60525
58709
8-Dec-11
59656
60094
9-Dec-11
59656 59945.667
10-Dec-11
59656
59656
12-Dec-11
59851
59721
13-Dec-11
59800
59769
14-Dec-11
58777
59476
15-Dec-11
56810 58462.333
16-Dec-11
56922
57503
17-Dec-11
56922 56884.667
19-Dec-11
56423 56755.667
20-Dec-11
56679 56674.667
21-Dec-11
56679 56593.667
22-Dec-11
56239 56532.333
23-Dec-11
56500 56472.667
24-Dec-11
57254 56664.333
26-Dec-11
56449 56734.333
27-Dec-11
56242 56648.333
28-Dec-11
54797 55829.333
29-Dec-11
52795 54611.333
DECEMBER 2011
61000
60000
59000
58000
57000
56000
55000
54000
53000
52000
51000
1
21
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012
TABLE 3.5
Date
2-Jan-12
3-Jan-12
4-Jan-12
5-Jan-12
6-Jan-12
7-Jan-12
9-Jan-12
10-Jan-12
11-Jan-12
12-Jan-12
13-Jan-12
14-Jan-12
16-Jan-12
17-Jan-12
18-Jan-12
19-Jan-12
20-Jan-12
21-Jan-12
23-Jan-12
24-Jan-12
25-Jan-12
27-Jan-12
28-Jan-12
30-Jan-12
31-Jan-12
CHART 3.5
JANUARY 2012
SILVER JANUARY 2012

Close
Moving avg
51330
53109
52761
52400
52740
52870
51868
52456.333
51845
52151
51749
51820.667
52566
52053.333
52607
52307.333
52770
52647.667
52001
52459.333
52124
52298.333
52315
52146.667
53207
52548.667
53428
52983.333
53387
53340.667
54825
53880
55548
54586.667
55565
55312.667
55365
55492.667
56411
55780.333
57165
56313.667
57229
56935
56992
57128.667
56422
56881
58000
57000
56000
55000
54000
53000
52000
51000
50000
49000
1
22
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012
TABLE 3.6
SILVER FEBRUARY 2012

Date Close
Moving
price
avg
1-Feb-12
56834
2-Feb-12
57023
3-Feb-12
56161
56672.67
4-Feb-12
56157
56447
6-Feb-12
56426
56248
7-Feb-12
57265
56616
8-Feb-12
56821
56837.33
9-Feb-12
57177
57087.67
10-Feb-12
56915
56971
11-Feb-12
56875
56989
13-Feb-12
56664
56818
14-Feb-12
56416
56651.67
15-Feb-12
56303
56461
16-Feb-12
56216
56311.67
17-Feb-12
55926
56148.33
18-Feb-12
56108
56083.33
20-Feb-12
56320
56118
21-Feb-12
57157
56528.33
22-Feb-12
57257
56911.33
23-Feb-12
58677
57697
24-Feb-12
58404
58112.67
25-Feb-12
58435
58505.33
27-Feb-12
58710
58516.33
28-Feb-12
60883
59342.67
29-Feb-12
57783
59125.33
CHART 3.6
FEBRUARY 2012
60000
59000
58000
57000
56000
55000
54000
1
23
11 13 15 17 19 21 23
INTERPRETATION
The above tables and charts reveal the price fluctuation of silver.
In the December month, the maximum price is Rs.60525 and the minimum price is Rs.52795.
In the January month, the maximum price is Rs.57229 and the minimum price is Rd.51330. In the
February month, the maximum price is Rs60883 and the minimum price is 56108. The table and
chart indicates that in the month of December there was a decline in silver price and in the month of
January and February there was a slow and steady increase in silver price.
24
MOVING AVERAGE OF ALUMINIUM FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO

MARCH 2012
MOVING AVERAGE OF ALUMINIUM FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011
TABLE 3.7
ALUMINIUM DECEMBER 2011
Date
Close(Rs)
Moving avg
1-Dec-11
110.85
2-Dec-11
112.15
3-Dec-11
111.6 111.5333333
5-Dec-11
110.9
111.55
6-Dec-11
111.2 111.2333333
7-Dec-11
110.8 110.9666667
8-Dec-11
109.85 110.6166667
9-Dec-11
110.5 110.3833333
10-Dec-11
110.5 110.2833333
12-Dec-11
110.05
110.35
13-Dec-11
110.3 110.2833333
14-Dec-11
109.45 109.9333333
15-Dec-11
108.7 109.4833333
16-Dec-11
108.2 108.7833333
17-Dec-11
108.3
108.4
19-Dec-11
107.35
107.95
20-Dec-11
108.15 107.9333333
21-Dec-11
108 107.8333333
22-Dec-11
108.1 108.0833333
23-Dec-11
108.85 108.3166667
24-Dec-11
108.85
108.6
26-Dec-11
108.85
108.85
27-Dec-11
108.5 108.7333333
28-Dec-11
109.05
108.8
29-Dec-11
108.15 108.5666667
CHART 3.7
DECEMBER 2011
112
111
110
109
108
107
106
105
1
25
11 13 15 17 19 21 23
MOVING AVERAGE OF ALUMINIUM FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

TABLE 3.8
ALUMINIUM JANUARY 2012
Date
Close
Moving
avg
2-Jan-12
110.05
3-Jan-12
110.6
4-Jan-12
111.85 110.83333
5-Jan-12
110.6 111.01667
6-Jan-12
110.45 110.96667
7-Jan-12
110.45
110.5
9-Jan-12
112.4
111.1
10-Jan-12
113.1 111.98333
11-Jan-12
113.55 113.01667
12-Jan-12
114.05 113.56667
13-Jan-12
112.6
113.4
14-Jan-12
112.9 113.18333
16-Jan-12
112.85 112.78333
17-Jan-12
114.2 113.31667
18-Jan-12
113.25 113.43333
19-Jan-12
113.65
113.7
20-Jan-12
113.2 113.36667
21-Jan-12
113.2
113.35
23-Jan-12
113.25 113.21667
24-Jan-12
113.85 113.43333
25-Jan-12
113.5 113.53333
27-Jan-12
113.75
113.7
28-Jan-12
113.5 113.58333
30-Jan-12
113.2 113.48333
31-Jan-12
113.4 113.36667
CHART 3.8
JANUARY 2012
114
113
112
111
110
109
108
1
26
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
MOVING AVERAGE OF ALUMINIUM FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012
TABLE 3.9
CHART 3.9
ALUMINIUM FEBRUARY 2012

Date
Close price Moving
avg
1-Feb-12
112.65
2-Feb-12
110.2
3-Feb-12
110.8 111.2167
4-Feb-12
110.8
110.6
6-Feb-12
110.9 110.8333
7-Feb-12
111.85 111.1833
8-Feb-12
112.25 111.6667
9-Feb-12
113.7
112.6
10-Feb-12
112.65 112.8667
11-Feb-12
112.85 113.0667
13-Feb-12
110.95
112.15
14-Feb-12
110.65 111.4833
15-Feb-12
110.3 110.6333
16-Feb-12
108.95 109.9667
17-Feb-12
108.25 109.1667
18-Feb-12
108.2 108.4667
20-Feb-12
108.6
108.35
21-Feb-12
111 109.2667
22-Feb-12
112.55 110.7167
23-Feb-12
112.2 111.9167
24-Feb-12
111.65 112.1333
25-Feb-12
111.55
111.8
27-Feb-12
111.24
111.48
28-Feb-12
112.1
111.63
29-Feb-12
112.65 111.9967
FEBRUARY 2012
114
113
112
111
110
109
108
107
106
105
1
27
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
INTERPRETATION
The above tables and charts reveal the price fluctuation of aluminium.
In the December month, the maximum price is Rs.112.15 and the minimum price is
Rs.107.35. In the January month, the maximum price is Rs.114.2 and the minimum price is
Rs.110.65. In the February month, the maximum price is Rs.112.85 and the minimum price is
Rs.108.2. The table and chart indicates that in the month of December there was a full decline and in
the month of January a slow and steady increase in aluminium. But in the month of February the
aluminium price was highly fluctuated.
28
MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO MARCH

2012
MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011
TABLE 3.10
COPPER DECEMBER 2011

Date
Close(Rs)
Moving
avg
1-Dec-11
412.1
2-Dec-11
414.4
3-Dec-11
415.2
0
5-Dec-11
419.45
416.35
6-Dec-11
416.15 416.93333
7-Dec-11
416
417.2
8-Dec-11
413.45
415.2
9-Dec-11
418.9 416.11667
10-Dec-11
420.05 417.46667
12-Dec-11
414.25 417.73333
13-Dec-11
415.6 416.63333
14-Dec-11
404.5
411.45
15-Dec-11
397.85 405.98333
16-Dec-11
397.75 400.03333
17-Dec-11
400.5
398.7
19-Dec-11
397.55
398.6
20-Dec-11
403.75
400.6
21-Dec-11
405.35 402.21667
22-Dec-11
408.05 405.71667
23-Dec-11
413.6
409
24-Dec-11
414.35
412
26-Dec-11
414.25 414.06667
27-Dec-11
410.9 413.16667
28-Dec-11
407.5 410.88333
29-Dec-11
407.5 408.63333
CHART 3.10
DECEMBER 2011
420
415
410
405
400
395
390
385
1
29
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

TABLE 3.11
CHART 3.11
COPPER JANUARY 2012

Date
close
Moving avg
2-Jan-12
415.5
3-Jan-12
417.65
4-Jan-12
407.5
413.55
5-Jan-12
406.3 410.4833333
6-Jan-12
406.3
406.7
7-Jan-12
405.8 406.1333333
9-Jan-12
402.95 405.0166667
10-Jan-12
407.75
405.5
11-Jan-12
411.15 407.2833333
12-Jan-12
420.3 413.0666667
13-Jan-12
419.5 416.9833333
14-Jan-12
419.65 419.8166667
16-Jan-12
422.05
420.4
17-Jan-12
423.4
421.7
18-Jan-12
422.8
422.75
19-Jan-12
427.55 424.5833333
20-Jan-12
421.15 423.8333333
21-Jan-12
421.85 423.5166667
23-Jan-12
424.9 422.6333333
24-Jan-12
426.1 424.2833333
25-Jan-12
427
426
27-Jan-12
429.6 427.5666667
28-Jan-12
429.7 428.7666667
30-Jan-12
425.85 428.3833333
31-Jan-12
422.35 425.9666667
JANUARY 2012
435
430
425
420
415
410
405
400
395
390
1
30
11 13 15 17 19 21 23
MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012
TABLE 3.12
COPPER FEBRUARY 2012

Date
Close price
1-Feb-12
2-Feb-12
3-Feb-12
4-Feb-12
6-Feb-12
7-Feb-12
8-Feb-12
9-Feb-12
10-Feb-12
11-Feb-12
13-Feb-12
14-Feb-12
15-Feb-12
16-Feb-12
17-Feb-12
18-Feb-12
20-Feb-12
21-Feb-12
22-Feb-12
23-Feb-12
24-Feb-12
25-Feb-12
27-Feb-12
28-Feb-12
29-Feb-12
423.45
416.8
424.15
424.1
423.8
426.1
429.8
439.15
429.9
430.15
424.85
423.65
421.7
421.3
412.25
413.15
414.6
421.9
422.9
418.9
423.1
422.6
426.65
428.65
425.55
CHART 3.12
FEBRUARY 2012
Moving
avg
435
430
425
421.4667
421.6833
424.0167
424.6667
426.5667
431.6833
432.95
433.0667
428.3
426.2167
423.4
422.2167
418.4167
415.5667
413.3333
416.55
419.8
421.2333
421.6333
421.5333
424.1167
425.9667
426.95
420
415
410
405
400
1
31
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
INTERPRETATION
The above tables and charts reveal the price fluctuation of copper.
In the December month, the maximum price is Rs.112.15 and the minimum price is
Rs.107.35. In the January month, the maximum price is Rs.114.2 and the minimum price is
Rs.110.65. In the February month, the maximum price is Rs.112.85 and the minimum price is
Rs.108.2. The table and charts indicates that in the month of December and February the price of
copper was highly fluctuated and in the month of January there was a slow and steady fluctuation.
32
CHAPTER IV
MEASURING PRICE FLUCTUATION USING CANDLESTICK
CHART
4.1 INTRODUCTION
This chapter deals with the analysis of price fluctuation of selected commodities
using Candle Stick Chart of 4 selected commodities.
The following are the description about the column used in the table, which showed the
analysis of moving average analysis.
Column
Column Name
Description
Date
Trading Date
Open Price
Open Price in Rupees
High Price
High Price in Rupees
Low Price
Low Price in Rupees
Close Price
Close Price in Rupees
33
CANDLE STICK OF GOLD FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO MARCH

2012
PRICE FLUCTUATION OF GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011
TABLE 4.1
Date
Open(Rs)
High(Rs)
Low(Rs)
Close(Rs)
1-Dec-11
29635
29140
28850
28888
2-Dec-11
28968
29028
28846
28891
3-Dec-11
28901
28964
28901
28943
5-Dec-11
29046
28800
28980
28943
6-Dec-11
29760
29820
29735
29772
7-Dec-11
30090
30090
30090
30090
8-Dec-11
30200
30200
29988
30069
9-Dec-11
29980
29980
29930
29955
10-Dec-11
29955
12-Dec-11
29680
29734
29672
29695
13-Dec-11
29817
29817
29714
29764
14-Dec-11
29607
29639
28872
29055
15-Dec-11
28750
28849
28300
28493
16-Dec-11
28209
28458
28036
28387
17-Dec-11
28487
28531
28487
28508
19-Dec-11
28450
28582
28448
28498
20-Dec-11
28687
28780
28671
28753
21-Dec-11
28885
28999
28800
28904
22-Dec-11
28615
28732
28603
28646
23-Dec-11
28680
28690
28655
28662
24-Dec-11
28701
28725
28701
28716
26-Dec-11
28716
27-Dec-11
28716
28-Dec-11
28429
28429
28142
28286
29-Dec-11
28020
28020
27510
27602
34
PRICE FLUCTUATION OF GOLD USING CANDLE STICK CHART

DECEMBER 2011
CHART 4.1
GOLD CANDLESTICK CHART DEC 2011

31000
30000
29000
28000
27000
26000
25000
24000
35
PRICE FLUCTUATION OF GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

TABLE 4.2
Date
Open(Rs)
High(Rs)
Low(Rs)
Close(Rs)
2-Jan-12
27300
27414
27271
27382
3-Jan-12
27448
27779
27414
27656
4-Jan-12
27701
27888
27540
27852
5-Jan-12
27812
27875
27540
27821
6-Jan-12
27830
27945
27652
27755
7-Jan-12
27764
27768
27732
27762
9-Jan-12
27737
27757
27551
27578
10-Jan-12
27538
27639
27476
27537
11-Jan-12
27595
27736
27585
27657
12-Jan-12
27689
27816
27632
27665
13-Jan-12
27600
27600
27390
27427
14-Jan-12
27450
27540
27450
27507
16-Jan-12
27540
27591
27463
27484
17-Jan-12
27519
27778
27495
27588
18-Jan-12
27550
27582
27327
27475
19-Jan-12
27490
27569
27308
27347
20-Jan-12
27365
27492
27222
27448
21-Jan-12
27488
27524
27475
27490
23-Jan-12
27489
27594
27408
27510
24-Jan-12
27487
27533
27342
27383
25-Jan-12
27394
27655
27170
27589
27-Jan-12
27580
28084
27580
27957
28-Jan-12
27991
28013
27975
27990
30-Jan-12
28030
28094
27845
28059
31-Jan-12
28100
28199
28044
28078
36
PRICE FLUCTUATION OF GOLD USING CANDLESTICK CHART

JANUARY 2012
CHART 4.2
GOLD CANDLESTICK CHART JAN 2012
28400
28200
28000
27800
27600
27400
27200
27000
26800
26600
37
PRICE FLUCTUATION OF GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012

TABLE 4.3
Date
Open(Rs)
High(Rs)
Low(Rs)
Close(Rs)
1-Feb-12
28125
28200
28040
28083
2-Feb-12
28045
28244
27997
28155
3-Feb-12
28151
28233
27445
27711
4-Feb-12
27525
27765
27500
27948
6-Feb-12
28950
28950
28950
28950
7-Feb-12
28950
8-Feb-12
29317
29367
29260
29306
9-Feb-12
29309
29419
29300
29326
10-Feb-12
29330
29330
29138
29279
11-Feb-12
29275
29294
29254
29272
13-Feb-12
29164
29185
29117
29155
14-Feb-12
29010
29104
28989
29062
15-Feb-12
29180
29293
29180
29246
16-Feb-12
29235
29236
29140
29161
17-Feb-12
29220
29220
29109
29141
18-Feb-12
29141
20-Feb-12
29156
29156
29156
29156
21-Feb-12
29304
29465
29282
29425
22-Feb-12
29499
29700
29498
29600
23-Feb-12
29773
29968
29773
29918
24-Feb-12
29800
29820
29725
29780
25-Feb-12
29715
29746
29715
29730
27-Feb-12
29688
29781
29688
29739
28-Feb-12
29788
29988
29780
29957
29-Feb-12
30013
30017
29018
29091
38
PRICE FLUCTUATION OF GOLD USING CANDLESTICK CHART

FEBRUARY 2012
CHART 4.3
GOLD CANDLE STICK CHART FEB 2012
30500
30000
29500
29000
28500
28000
27500
27000
INTERPRETATION
The above charts show the price fluctuation of gold for the month of December, January
and February. On 15th Dec, 4th Jan, 5th Feb White Candle is formed which shows the bullish
mood in the market, it indicates that the traders to buy and hold the stock. On 29 st Dec, 9th Jan,
29th Feb Black Candle is formed which indicate the trader to dispose the stock and the market is
bearish. Rest of the days Doji was formed where the market is uncertainty, i.e., there is
indecision bulls and bears.
39
CANDLE STICK OF SILVER FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO MARCH

2012
PRICE FLUCTUATIONOF SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011
TABLE 4.4
Date
1-Dec-11
2-Dec-11
3-Dec-11
5-Dec-11
6-Dec-11
7-Dec-11
8-Dec-11
9-Dec-11
Open(Rs)
55900
54517
55126
55300
0
60400
59901
0
High(Rs)
55950
56005
55288
55653
0
60650
59901
0
Low(Rs)
54806
54515
55096
54850
0
60400
59525
0
Close(Rs)
54953
55076
55270
55501
60101
60525
59656
59656
10-Dec-11
12-Dec-11
13-Dec-11
14-Dec-11
15-Dec-11
16-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
19-Dec-11
20-Dec-11
21-Dec-11
22-Dec-11
23-Dec-11
24-Dec-11
26-Dec-11
27-Dec-11
28-Dec-11
29-Dec-11
0
59851
59800
59602
56426
56950
0
56343
56650
0
56182
56309
58760
56449
56149
55700
54012
0
59851
59800
59602
57256
57083
0
56450
56803
0
56273
56602
58760
56449
56399
55750
54012
0
59851
59800
58006
56000
56820
0
56343
56585
0
56182
56309
56497
56449
56144
53608
52060
59656
59851
59800
58777
56810
56922
56922
56423
56679
56679
56239
56500
57254
56449
56242
54797
52795
40
PRICE FLUCTUATION OF SILVER USING CANDLESTICK CHART

DECEMBER 2011
CHART 4.4
SILVER CANDLESTICK CHART DEC 2011

62000
60000
58000
56000
54000
52000
50000
41
PRICE FLUCTUATIONOF SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

TABLE 4.5
Date
Open(Rs)
High(Rs)
Low(Rs)
Close(Rs)
2-Jan-12
51000
51381
51000
51330
3-Jan-12
51493
53500
51493
53109
4-Jan-12
53000
53420
52260
52761
5-Jan-12
52900
52988
51861
52740
6-Jan-12
52625
52758
51548
51868
7-Jan-12
51789
51892
51688
51845
9-Jan-12
51940
52150
51366
51749
10-Jan-12
51755
53019
51755
52566
11-Jan-12
52663
52968
52230
52607
12-Jan-12
52710
53400
52603
52770
13-Jan-12
52600
52600
51871
52001
14-Jan-12
52134
52172
52100
52124
16-Jan-12
52249
52475
52056
52315
17-Jan-12
52392
53874
52392
53207
18-Jan-12
53099
53515
52845
53428
19-Jan-12
53428
53860
53232
53387
20-Jan-12
53489
55024
53170
54825
21-Jan-12
55040
55879
55040
55548
23-Jan-12
55666
56490
55232
55565
24-Jan-12
55700
55949
55235
55365
25-Jan-12
55555
56585
54671
56411
27-Jan-12
56573
57396
56573
57165
28-Jan-12
57250
57450
57183
57229
30-Jan-12
57090
57145
56425
56992
31-Jan-12
57055
57490
56112
56422
42

JANUARY 2012
CHART 4.5
SILVER CANDLESTICK CHART JAN 2012
58000
56000
54000
52000
50000
48000
46000
43
PRICE FLUCTUATIONOF SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012

TABLE 4.6
Date
Open(Rs)
High(Rs)
Low(Rs)
Close(Rs)
1-Feb-12
56520
57168
56356
56834
2-Feb-12
56750
57381
56326
57023
3-Feb-12
57257
57370
55650
56161
4-Feb-12
55901
56178
55901
56157
6-Feb-12
56207
56539
55675
56426
7-Feb-12
56350
57400
56011
57265
8-Feb-12
57352
57777
56689
56821
9-Feb-12
56836
57724
56831
57177
10-Feb-12
57221
57375
56378
56915
11-Feb-12
56890
56951
56794
56875
13-Feb-12
56925
57038
56433
56664
14-Feb-12
56571
56956
56220
56416
15-Feb-12
56475
56975
56250
56303
16-Feb-12
56240
56396
55551
56216
17-Feb-12
56288
56499
55781
55926
18-Feb-12
56089
56133
55932
56108
20-Feb-12
56240
56410
56211
56320
21-Feb-12
56348
57300
56242
57157
22-Feb-12
57171
57448
56856
57257
23-Feb-12
57243
58784
57218
58677
24-Feb-12
58580
58888
58254
58404
25-Feb-12
58414
58487
58364
58435
27-Feb-12
58540
58850
58311
58710
28-Feb-12
58560
61119
58525
60883
29-Feb-12
60687
61488
57230
57783
44

FEBRUARY 2012
CHART 4.6
SILVER CANDLESTICK CHART FEB 2012

62000
61000
60000
59000
58000
57000
56000
55000
54000
53000
52000
INTERPRETATION
The above charts show the price fluctuation of silver for the month of December, January
and February. On 3rd Dec, 2nd Jan, 7th Feb White Candle is formed which shows the bullish
mood in the market, it indicates that the traders to buy and hold the stock. On 25 st Dec, 6th Jan,
29rd Feb Black Candle is formed which indicate the trader to dispose the stock and the market is
bearish. Rest of the days Doji was formed where the market is uncertainty, i.e., there is
45
CANDLE STICK OF ALUMINIUM FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO MARCH

2012
PRICE FLUCTUATIONOF ALUMINIUM FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011
TABLE 4.7
Date
Open(Rs)
High(Rs)
Low(Rs)
Close(Rs)
1-Dec-11
110.4
112.1
110.35
110.85
2-Dec-11
112
112.6
111.8
112.15
3-Dec-11
111.6
111.6
111.6
111.6
5-Dec-11
110.7
111.6
110.5
110.9
6-Dec-11
111.35
111.35
111
111.2
7-Dec-11
111.7
112.1
109.8
110.8
8-Dec-11
110.65
110.65
109.6
109.85
9-Dec-11
110.25
110.75
110
110.5
10-Dec-11
110.5
12-Dec-11
110
110.35
109.55
110.05
13-Dec-11
110.7
110.7
110.1
110.3
14-Dec-11
110.4
110.6
109.05
109.45
15-Dec-11
109.75
109.75
108.4
108.7
16-Dec-11
108.05
108.5
107.85
108.2
17-Dec-11
108.3
108.3
108.3
108.3
19-Dec-11
108.3
108.3
106.8
107.35
20-Dec-11
107.55
108.6
107.45
108.15
21-Dec-11
108.75
108.75
107.5
108
22-Dec-11
107.9
108.55
107.5
108.1
23-Dec-11
109
109
108.7
108.85
24-Dec-11
108.85
26-Dec-11
108.8
109
108.8
108.85
27-Dec-11
108.45
108.6
108.45
108.5
28-Dec-11
109
109.35
108.5
109.05
29-Dec-11
108.25
108.65
108
108.15
46
PRICE FLUCTUATION OF ALUMINIUM USING CANDLESTICK

CHART DECEMBER 2011
CHART 4.7
ALUMINIUM CANDLESTICK CHART DEC 2011

114
112
110
108
106
104
102
100
47
PRICE FLUCTUATIONOF ALUMINIUM FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

TABLE 4.8
Date
Open(Rs)
High(Rs)
Low(Rs)
Close(Rs)
2-Jan-12
110.05
110.05
110.05
110.05
3-Jan-12
110.15
111.1
110.1
110.6
4-Jan-12
111.1
112.25
111.1
111.85
5-Jan-12
111.2
111.25
110.05
110.6
6-Jan-12
110.15
111
110.15
110.45
7-Jan-12
110.45
9-Jan-12
112.1
112.9
111.9
112.4
10-Jan-12
112.8
113.4
112.8
113.1
11-Jan-12
113.7
113.8
113.25
113.55
12-Jan-12
113.7
114.85
113.25
114.05
13-Jan-12
112.6
113.15
112
112.6
14-Jan-12
112.9
112.9
112.9
112.9
16-Jan-12
112.85
112.85
112.85
112.85
17-Jan-12
114.15
114.65
113.8
114.2
18-Jan-12
113.9
113.9
113
113.25
19-Jan-12
113.9
113.9
113.3
113.65
20-Jan-12
113.4
113.75
112.9
113.2
21-Jan-12
113.2
23-Jan-12
112.9
113.55
112.9
113.25
24-Jan-12
113.8
113.9
113.8
113.85
25-Jan-12
113.35
113.75
113.35
113.5
27-Jan-12
114.25
114.25
113.2
113.75
28-Jan-12
113.5
113.5
113.5
113.5
30-Jan-12
113.1
114.1
112.65
113.2
31-Jan-12
114.5
115.25
113
113.4
48

CHART JANUARY 2012
CHART 4.8
ALUMINIUM CANDLESTICK CHART JAN 2012
116
115
114
113
112
111
110
109
108
49
PRICE FLUCTUATIONOF ALUMINIUM FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012

TABLE 4.9
Date
Open(Rs)
High(Rs)
Low(Rs)
Close(Rs)
1-Feb-12
111.8
113.95
111.8
112.65
2-Feb-12
113.05
113.05
110
110.2
3-Feb-12
110.4
111.1
109.4
110.8
4-Feb-12
110.8
6-Feb-12
111.2
111.4
110.3
110.9
7-Feb-12
110.3
112.15
109.8
111.85
8-Feb-12
111.95
113.5
111.85
112.25
9-Feb-12
112.25
114.1
112.2
113.7
10-Feb-12
111.85
114.25
111.85
112.65
11-Feb-12
112.5
113
112.5
112.85
13-Feb-12
112.65
112.65
110.7
110.95
14-Feb-12
110.35
111.15
110.1
110.65
15-Feb-12
111.5
111.5
110.15
110.3
16-Feb-12
109.9
110.2
108.6
108.95
17-Feb-12
109.25
109.25
108
108.25
18-Feb-12
108.15
108.35
108.15
108.2
20-Feb-12
108.95
108.95
108.3
108.6
21-Feb-12
109.15
111.1
109.15
111
22-Feb-12
111.3
112.75
111.1
112.55
23-Feb-12
112.35
112.8
112
112.2
24-Feb-12
109.7
111.9
109.4
111.65
25-Feb-12
111.8
111.8
111.45
111.55
27-Feb-12
111.45
112.85
111.4
111.24
28-Feb-12
112.6
113.3
111.7
112.1
29-Feb-12
112.25
113.05
112
112.65
50

CHART FEBRUARY 2012
CHART 4.9
ALUMINIUM CANDLESTICK CHART FEB 2012
116
114
112
110
108
106
104
102
100
INTERPRETATION
The above charts show the price fluctuation of aluminium for the month of December,
January and February. On 1st Dec, 4th Jan, 1st Feb White Candle is formed which shows the
bullish mood in the market, it indicates that the traders to buy and hold the stock. On 7st Dec, 6th
Jan, 3rd Feb Black Candle is formed which indicate the trader to dispose the stock and the market
is bearish. Rest of the days Doji was formed where the market is uncertainty, i.e., there is
51
CANDLE STICK OF COPPER FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO MARCH

2012
PRICE FLUCTUATIONOF COPPER FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011
TABLE 4.10
Date
Open(Rs)
High(Rs)
Low(Rs)
Close(Rs)
1-Dec-11
418.75
420
410.6
412.1
2-Dec-11
412.45
418.45
411.9
414.4
3-Dec-11
415.3
415.5
414.9
415.2
5-Dec-11
416.4
420.6
415.1
419.45
6-Dec-11
415.05
416.9
413.45
416.15
7-Dec-11
417.65
419.8
414
416
8-Dec-11
416.95
419.25
412.5
413.45
9-Dec-11
414.6
420
411.9
418.9
10-Dec-11
420.15
420.25
419.7
420.05
12-Dec-11
415.8
416.7
413.5
414.25
13-Dec-11
415.95
418.45
414.95
415.6
14-Dec-11
414.5
414.75
402.25
404.5
15-Dec-11
404.65
404.65
395.55
397.85
16-Dec-11
395.2
402.55
395.15
397.75
17-Dec-11
399.5
400.95
399.45
400.5
19-Dec-11
396.45
400
394.6
397.55
20-Dec-11
397.7
405.65
397.05
403.75
21-Dec-11
404.7
408.5
401.5
405.35
22-Dec-11
403.9
408.75
403.9
408.05
23-Dec-11
409.85
414
409.85
413.6
24-Dec-11
414.1
414.5
414.1
414.35
26-Dec-11
414
414.4
413.75
414.25
27-Dec-11
410.95
412.9
410
410.9
28-Dec-11
411.6
413.8
406.9
407.5
29-Dec-11
406.5
409.35
402.5
407.5
52
PRICE FLUCTUATION OF COPPER USING CANDLESTICK CHART

DECEMBER 2011
CHART 4.10
COPPER CANDLESTICK CHART DEC 2011

425
420
415
410
405
400
395
390
385
380
53
PRICE FLUCTUATION OF COPPER FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

TABLE 4.11
Date
Open(Rs)
High(Rs)
Low(Rs)
Close(Rs)
2-Jan-11
411.5
418
410.5
415.5
3-Jan-11
412
419
412
417.65
4-Jan-11
416.25
416.25
406.8
407.5
5-Jan-11
408.85
410.9
402.6
406.3
6-Jan-11
407.05
408
402.55
406.3
7-Jan-11
406.05
406.05
405.5
405.8
9-Jan-11
405
405
400.9
402.95
10-Jan-11
402.1
408.15
401.7
407.75
11-Jan-11
406.55
411.5
405.65
411.15
12-Jan-11
409.6
422.4
409.6
420.3
13-Jan-11
419.35
423.9
415.2
419.5
14-Jan-11
420.4
420.85
419.1
419.65
16-Jan-11
419.15
423.2
417.8
422.05
17-Jan-11
422.85
427.95
422
423.4
18-Jan-11
423.4
425.2
420.2
422.8
19-Jan-11
424.3
429.2
424.25
427.55
20-Jan-11
428.6
430.2
420.3
421.15
21-Jan-11
421.15
422.05
421.15
421.85
23-Jan-11
421.8
426.65
419
424.9
24-Jan-11
424.45
426.5
421.4
426.1
25-Jan-11
427.1
428.6
422.6
427
27-Jan-11
429
434
428.1
429.6
28-Jan-11
428.9
429.9
428.85
429.7
30-Jan-11
428.05
428.05
423.25
425.85
31-Jan-11
426
428.8
420.9
422.35
54

JANUARY 2012
CHART 4.11
COPPER CANDLESTICK CHART JAN 2012

440
430
420
410
400
390
380
55
PRICE FLUCTUATION OF COPPER FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012

TABLE 4.12
Date
Open(Rs)
High(Rs)
Low(Rs)
Close(Rs)
1-Feb-11
421.5
423.9
418.8
423.45
2-Feb-11
421
423.1
415.55
416.8
3-Feb-11
418.2
424.65
414.65
424.15
4-Feb-11
425
425.3
423.8
424.1
6-Feb-11
423.2
425.25
421.6
423.8
7-Feb-11
422.55
426.65
419.7
426.1
8-Feb-11
427
432.6
426.2
429.8
9-Feb-11
429.05
439.6
428.9
439.15
10-Feb-11
437.7
439.4
429.2
429.9
11-Feb-11
429.65
430.6
429.5
430.15
13-Feb-11
430.3
431.4
422.7
424.85
14-Feb-11
422.6
426.45
421
423.65
15-Feb-11
425.45
427.05
420.55
421.7
16-Feb-11
421.05
422.3
416.75
421.3
17-Feb-11
422.4
422.9
411
412.25
18-Feb-11
412.55
413.55
412.35
413.15
20-Feb-11
414.2
416.45
412.2
414.6
21-Feb-11
416
422.2
415.55
421.9
22-Feb-11
422.4
424.1
419.55
422.9
23-Feb-11
421.55
422
416.65
418.9
24-Feb-11
418.55
424.35
416.05
423.1
25-Feb-11
422.5
425.75
422.15
422.6
27-Feb-11
422.15
427
421.5
426.65
28-Feb-11
425.65
433
425.25
428.65
29-Feb-11
428.15
432.4
419.2
425.55
56

FEBRUARY 2012
CHART 4.12
COPPER CANDLESTICK CHART FEB

2012
1-Feb-11
2-Feb-11
3-Feb-11
4-Feb-11
6-Feb-11
7-Feb-11
8-Feb-11
9-Feb-11
10-Feb-11
11-Feb-11
13-Feb-11
14-Feb-11
15-Feb-11
16-Feb-11
17-Feb-11
18-Feb-11
20-Feb-11
21-Feb-11
22-Feb-11
23-Feb-11
24-Feb-11
25-Feb-11
27-Feb-11
28-Feb-11
29-Feb-11
445
440
435
430
425
420
415
410
405
400
395
INTERPRETATION
The above charts show the price fluctuation of copper for the month of December, January and
February. On 3rd Dec, 2nd Jan, 1st Feb White Candle is formed which shows the bullish mood in the
market, it indicates that the traders to buy and hold the stock. On 1st Dec, 4th Jan, 2nd Feb Black Candle is
formed which indicate the trader to dispose the stock and the market is bearish. Rest of the days Doji was
formed where the market is uncertainty, i.e., there is indecision bulls and bears.
57
CHAPTER V
PRICE FLUCTUATION CALCULATIONS USING
VOLATILITY
5.1INTRODUCTION
VOLATILITY
This chapter dealt with analysis and interpretation of volatility to estimate the uncertainty. The
following are the description about the column used in the table, which showed the analysis of
volatility.
Column
Column Name
Description
Date
Trading date
High Price
High price in rupees
Low Price
Low price in Rupees
(H/L)
High price / Low price
(H/L)2
Square of High price / Low price
Log
Log of the calculated value
Sum of log
Sum of all calculated values
1/n
Sum of log values/ number of days
Sqrt
Square root of the Calculated value
10
K*n
K value * n value
58
VOLATILITY OF GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011

TABLE 5.1
Date
High
Price
Low price
(H/L)
(H/L)2
Log value
Sum of log
1/n
sqrt
k*n
1-Dec-11
29140
28850
1.010052
1.020205029
0.00868746
0.170371029
0.007098793
0.084254
0.050637
2-Dec-11
29028
28846
1.006309
1.012658542
0.00546303
3-Dec-11
28964
28901
1.00218
1.004364463
0.00189134
5-Dec-11
29800
28800
1.034722
1.070650077
0.02964755
6-Dec-11
29820
29735
1.002859
1.00572534
0.00072597
7-Dec-11
30090
30090
8-Dec-11
30200
29988
1.007069
1.014188967
0.00608078
9-Dec-11
29980
29930
1.001671
1.00334392
0.00881343
12-Dec-11
29734
29672
1.00209
1.00418339
0.00181286
13-Dec-11
29817
29714
1.003466
1.006944775
0.0061189
14-Dec-11
29639
28872
1.026566
1.053836789
0.00144986
15-Dec-11
28849
28300
1.019399
1.039174919
0.01668869
16-Dec-11
28458
28036
1.015052
1.030330717
0.00181286
17-Dec-11
28531
28487
1.001545
1.003091514
0.00300575
19-Dec-11
28582
28448
1.00471
1.009442885
0.02277344
20-Dec-11
28780
28671
1.003802
1.007617955
0.01668869
21-Dec-11
28999
28800
1.00691
1.013867189
0.01297677
22-Dec-11
28732
28603
1.00451
1.009040373
0.00134077
23-Dec-11
28690
28655
1.001221
1.002444347
0.0040818
24-Dec-11
28725
28701
1.000836
1.001673115
0.00329592
26-Dec-11
27-Dec-11
28-Dec-11
28429
28142
1.010198
1.020500565
0.00106012
29-Dec-11
28020
27510
1.018539
1.03742111
0.01595503
59
VOLATILTIY OF GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

TABLE 5.2
Date
High
Price
Low price
(H/L)
(H/L)2
Log
2-Jan-12
27414
27271
1.005244
1.010514827
0.00454276
3-Jan-12
27779
27414
1.013314
1.026806002
0.0114884
4-Jan-12
27888
27540
1.012636
1.025432004
0.01090687
5-Jan-12
27875
27540
1.012164
1.024476216
0.01050179
6-Jan-12
27945
27652
1.010596
1.021304232
0.00915503
7-Jan-12
27768
27732
1.001298
1.002597964
0.00112683
9-Jan-12
27757
27551
1.007477
1.015009991
0.00647032
10-Jan-12
27639
27476
1.005932
1.011900094
0.0051376
11-Jan-12
27736
27585
1.005474
1.010977944
0.0047417
12-Jan-12
27816
27632
1.006659
1.013362234
0.00576461
13-Jan-12
27600
27390
1.007667
1.015392847
0.00663417
14-Jan-12
27540
27450
1.003279
1.006568127
0.00284312
16-Jan-12
27591
27463
1.004661
1.009343356
0.00403878
17-Jan-12
27778
27495
1.010293
1.020691502
0.00889471
18-Jan-12
27582
27327
1.009331
1.018749937
0.00806762
19-Jan-12
27569
27308
1.009558
1.019206626
0.0082624
20-Jan-12
27492
27222
1.009918
1.019935272
0.0085725
21-Jan-12
27524
27475
1.001783
1.00357006
0.00154767
23-Jan-12
27594
27408
1.006786
1.013618734
0.00587474
24-Jan-12
27533
27342
1.006986
1.014019978
0.00604652
25-Jan-12
27655
27170
1.017851
1.036019784
0.01536814
27-Jan-12
28084
27580
1.018274
1.036882167
0.01572934
28-Jan-12
28013
27975
1.001358
1.002718556
0.00117924
30-Jan-12
28094
27845
1.008942
1.017964685
0.00773285
31-Jan-12
28199
28044
1.005527
1.011084606
0.00478767
60
Sum of log
1/n
sqrt
k*n
0.175415375
0.007016615
0.083765
0.050343
VOLATILITY OF GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2011

TABLE 5.3
Date
High price
Low
price
(H/L)
(H/L)2
Log
Sum of log
1/n
sqrt
K*n
1-Feb-12
28244
27997
1.008822
1.017722582
0.00762941
0.132905209
0.005316208
0.072912
0.04382
2-Feb-12
28200
28040
1.005706
1.011444828
0.0049422
3-Feb-12
28233
27445
1.028712
1.058248316
0.02458759
4-Feb-12
27765
27500
1.009636
1.019365587
0.00832997
6-Feb-12
28950
28950
7-Feb-12
8-Feb-12
29367
29260
1.003657
1.007327112
0.00317052
9-Feb-12
29419
29300
1.004061
1.008139362
0.00352057
10-Feb-12
29330
29138
1.006589
1.013222086
0.00570465
11-Feb-12
29294
29254
1.001367
1.002736538
0.00118684
13-Feb-12
29185
29117
1.002335
1.004676265
0.00202614
14-Feb-12
29104
28989
1.003967
1.007949781
0.00343889
15-Feb-12
29293
29180
1.003873
1.007760027
0.00335713
16-Feb-12
29236
29140
1.003294
1.006599735
0.00285681
17-Feb-12
29220
29109
1.003813
1.007641048
0.00330585
18-Feb-12
20-Feb-12
29156
29156
21-Feb-12
29465
29282
1.00625
1.012538203
0.00541142
22-Feb-12
29700
29498
1.006848
1.013742738
0.00592776
23-Feb-12
29968
29773
1.00655
1.013142013
0.00567033
24-Feb-12
29820
29725
1.003196
1.00640214
0.00277155
25-Feb-12
29746
29715
1.001043
1.002087577
0.00090568
27-Feb-12
29781
29688
1.003133
1.006274971
0.00271667
28-Feb-12
29988
29780
1.006985
1.014017891
0.00604562
29-Feb-12
30017
29018
1.034427
1.070039027
0.02939962
61
VOLATILITY RESULT OF GOLD
MONTH
VALUES
DECEMBER
0.050637
JANUARY
0.050343
FEBRUARY
0.04382
CHART 5.1
GOLD
VALUES
0.050637
0.050343
0.04382
DECEMBER
JANUARY
62
FEBRUARY
INTERPRETATION
The above table and charts reveals the volatility of Gold
The volatility of the gold is high in December for 0.050637and low in February
for 0.04382. The standard error is high in December and low in February. The chance of
arbitrage starts from the December month to advise the investors.
63
VOLATILITY OF SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011

TABLE 5.4
Date
High
price
Low
price
(H/L)
1-Dec-11
55950
54806
1.020874
2-Dec-11
56005
54515
3-Dec-11
55288
5-Dec-11
(H/L)2
Sum of
log
1/n
sqrt
K*n
Log
1.042183
0.017944
0.227874
0.009115
0.095473
0.057379
1.027332
1.055411
0.023422
55096
1.003485
1.006982
0.003022
55653
54850
1.01464
1.029494
0.012624
6-Dec-11
7-Dec-11
60650
60400
1.004139
1.008295
0.003588
8-Dec-11
59901
59525
1.006317
1.012673
0.005469
9-Dec-11
10-Dec-11
12-Dec-11
59851
59851
13-Dec-11
59800
59800
14-Dec-11
59602
58006
1.027514
1.055786
0.023576
15-Dec-11
57256
56000
1.022429
1.04536
0.019266
16-Dec-11
57083
56820
1.004629
1.009279
0.004011
17-Dec-11
19-Dec-11
56450
56343
1.001899
1.003802
0.001648
20-Dec-11
56803
56585
1.003853
1.00772
0.00334
21-Dec-11
22-Dec-11
56273
56182
1.00162
1.003242
0.001406
23-Dec-11
56602
56309
1.005203
1.010434
0.004508
24-Dec-11
58760
56497
1.040055
1.081715
0.034113
26-Dec-11
56449
56449
27-Dec-11
56399
56144
1.004542
1.009104
0.003936
28-Dec-11
55750
53608
1.039957
1.08151
0.034031
29-Dec-11
54012
52060
1.037495
1.076396
0.031972
64
VOLATILITY OF SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

TABLE 5.5
Date
High
Price
Low
price
(H/L)
(H/L)2
Log
Sum of
log
1/n
sqrt
K*n
2-Jan-12
51381
51000
1.007471
1.014997
0.006465
0.378196
0.015128
0.122996
0.073921
3-Jan-12
53500
51493
1.038976
1.079471
0.033211
4-Jan-12
53420
52260
1.022197
1.044886
0.019069
5-Jan-12
52988
51861
1.021731
1.043935
0.018673
6-Jan-12
52758
51548
1.023473
1.047498
0.020153
7-Jan-12
51892
51688
1.003947
1.007909
0.003421
9-Jan-12
52150
51366
1.015263
1.030759
0.013157
10-Jan-12
53019
51755
1.024423
1.049442
0.020958
11-Jan-12
52968
52230
1.01413
1.028459
0.012187
12-Jan-12
53400
52603
1.015151
1.030532
0.013061
13-Jan-12
52600
51871
1.014054
1.028306
0.012122
14-Jan-12
52172
52100
1.001382
1.002766
0.0012
16-Jan-12
52475
52056
1.008049
1.016163
0.006963
17-Jan-12
53874
52392
1.028287
1.057374
0.024228
18-Jan-12
53515
52845
1.012679
1.025518
0.010943
19-Jan-12
53860
53232
1.011797
1.023734
0.010187
20-Jan-12
55024
53170
1.034869
1.070954
0.029771
21-Jan-12
55879
55040
1.015243
1.030719
0.01314
23-Jan-12
56490
55232
1.022777
1.046072
0.019562
24-Jan-12
55949
55235
1.012927
1.02602
0.011156
25-Jan-12
56585
54671
1.035009
1.071244
0.029889
27-Jan-12
57396
56573
1.014548
1.029307
0.012545
28-Jan-12
57450
57183
1.004669
1.00936
0.004046
30-Jan-12
57145
56425
1.01276
1.025683
0.011013
31-Jan-12
57490
56112
1.024558
1.049719
0.021073
65
VOLATILITY OF SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012

TABLE 5.6
Date
High
price
Low
price
(H/L)
(H/L)2
Log
Sum of
Log
1/n
sqrt
K*n
1-Feb-12
57168
56356
1.014408
1.029024
0.012426
0.371562
0.014862
0.12191
0.073268
2-Feb-12
57381
56326
1.01873
1.037811
0.016118
3-Feb-12
57370
55650
1.030907
1.06277
0.026439
4-Feb-12
56178
55901
1.004955
1.009935
0.004293
6-Feb-12
56539
55675
1.015519
1.031278
0.013376
7-Feb-12
57400
56011
1.024799
1.050212
0.021277
8-Feb-12
57777
56689
1.019192
1.038753
0.016512
9-Feb-12
57724
56831
1.015713
1.031673
0.013542
10-Feb-12
57375
56378
1.017684
1.035681
0.015226
11-Feb-12
56951
56794
1.002764
1.005536
0.002398
13-Feb-12
57038
56433
1.010721
1.021556
0.009262
14-Feb-12
56956
56220
1.013091
1.026354
0.011297
15-Feb-12
56975
56250
1.012889
1.025944
0.011124
16-Feb-12
56396
55551
1.015211
1.030654
0.013113
17-Feb-12
56499
55781
1.012872
1.025909
0.011109
18-Feb-12
56133
55932
1.003594
1.0072
0.003116
20-Feb-12
56410
56211
1.00354
1.007093
0.00307
21-Feb-12
57300
56242
1.018812
1.037977
0.016188
22-Feb-12
57448
56856
1.010412
1.020933
0.008997
23-Feb-12
58784
57218
1.027369
1.055487
0.023453
24-Feb-12
58888
58254
1.010883
1.021885
0.009402
25-Feb-12
58487
58364
1.002107
1.004219
0.001829
27-Feb-12
58850
58311
1.009244
1.018573
0.007992
28-Feb-12
61119
58525
1.044323
1.09061
0.03767
29-Feb-12
61488
57230
1.074402
1.154339
0.062333
66
VOLATILITY RESULT OF SILVER

MONTH
VALUES
DECEMBER
0.057379
JANUARY
0.073921
FEBRUARY
0.073268
CHART 5.2
SILVER
VALUES
0.073921
0.073268
0.057379
DECEMBER
JANUARY
67
FEBRUARY
INTERPRETATION
The above table and charts reveals the volatility of Silver
The volatility of the gold is high in January for 0.073921and low in December for
0.0057379. The standard error is high in January and low in December. The chance of arbitrage
starts from the December month to advise the investors.
68
VOLATILITY OF ALUMINIUM FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011

TABLE 5.7
Low
price
110.35
(H/L)
(H/L)2
Log
Sum of log
1/n
sqrt
K*n
1-Dec-11
High
Price
112.1
1.015859
1.031969
0.013667
0.159682
0.006387
0.079919
0.048031
2-Dec-11
112.6
111.8
1.007156
1.014362
0.006193
3-Dec-11
111.6
111.6
5-Dec-11
111.6
110.5
1.009955
1.020009
0.008604
6-Dec-11
111.35
111
1.003153
1.006316
0.002734
7-Dec-11
112.1
109.8
1.020947
1.042333
0.018006
8-Dec-11
110.65
109.6
1.00958
1.019252
0.008282
9-Dec-11
110.75
110
1.006818
1.013683
0.005902
10-Dec-11
12-Dec-11
110.35
109.55
1.007303
1.014659
0.00632
13-Dec-11
110.7
110.1
1.00545
1.010929
0.004721
14-Dec-11
110.6
109.05
1.014214
1.028629
0.012259
15-Dec-11
109.75
108.4
1.012454
1.025063
0.010751
16-Dec-11
108.5
107.85
1.006027
1.01209
0.005219
17-Dec-11
108.3
108.3
19-Dec-11
108.3
106.8
1.014045
1.028287
0.012114
20-Dec-11
108.6
107.45
1.010703
1.02152
0.009247
21-Dec-11
108.75
107.5
1.011628
1.023391
0.010042
22-Dec-11
108.55
107.5
1.009767
1.01963
0.008443
23-Dec-11
109
108.7
1.00276
1.005527
0.002394
24-Dec-11
26-Dec-11
109
108.8
1.001838
1.00368
0.001595
27-Dec-11
108.6
108.45
1.001383
1.002768
0.0012
28-Dec-11
109.35
108.5
1.007834
1.01573
0.006778
29-Dec-11
108.65
108
1.006019
1.012073
0.005212
Date
69
VOLATILITY OF ALUMINIUM FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

TABLE 5.8
Date
High
price
Low
price
(H/L)
(H/L)2
Log
Sum of
log
1/n
sqrt
K*n
2-Jan-12
110.05
110.05
0.140016
0.005601
0.07484
0.044979
3-Jan-12
111.1
110.1
1.009083
1.018248
0.007854
4-Jan-12
112.25
111.1
1.010351
1.020809
0.008944
5-Jan-12
111.25
110.05
1.010904
1.021927
0.00942
6-Jan-12
111
110.15
1.007717
1.015493
0.006677
7-Jan-12
9-Jan-12
112.9
111.9
1.008937
1.017953
0.007728
10-Jan-12
113.4
112.8
1.005319
1.010667
0.004608
11-Jan-12
113.8
113.25
1.004857
1.009737
0.004208
12-Jan-12
114.85
113.25
1.014128
1.028456
0.012186
13-Jan-12
113.15
112
1.010268
1.020641
0.008873
14-Jan-12
112.9
112.9
16-Jan-12
112.85
112.85
17-Jan-12
114.65
113.8
1.007469
1.014994
0.006463
18-Jan-12
113.9
113
1.007965
1.015993
0.006891
19-Jan-12
113.9
113.3
1.005296
1.010619
0.004587
20-Jan-12
113.75
112.9
1.007529
1.015114
0.006515
21-Jan-12
23-Jan-12
113.55
112.9
1.005757
1.011548
0.004986
24-Jan-12
113.9
113.8
1.000879
1.001758
0.000763
25-Jan-12
113.75
113.35
1.003529
1.00707
0.00306
27-Jan-12
114.25
113.2
1.009276
1.018637
0.008019
28-Jan-12
113.5
113.5
30-Jan-12
114.1
112.65
1.012872
1.025909
0.011109
31-Jan-12
115.25
113
1.019912
1.040219
0.017125
70
VOLATILITY OF ALUMINIUM FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012

TABLE 5.9
Date
High
price
Log
price
(H/L)
(H/L)2
Log
Sum of
log
1/n
sqrt
K*n
1-Feb-12
113.95
111.8
1.019231
1.038831
0.016545
0.282207
0.011288
0.106245
0.006385
2-Feb-12
113.05
110
1.027727
1.056223
0.023756
3-Feb-12
111.1
109.4
1.015539
1.03132
0.013393
4-Feb-12
6-Feb-12
111.4
110.3
1.009973
1.020045
0.008619
7-Feb-12
112.15
109.8
1.021403
1.043263
0.018394
8-Feb-12
113.5
111.85
1.014752
1.029721
0.01272
9-Feb-12
114.1
112.2
1.016934
1.034155
0.014586
10-Feb-12
114.25
111.85
1.021457
1.043375
0.01844
11-Feb-12
113
112.5
1.004444
1.008909
0.003852
13-Feb-12
112.65
110.7
1.017615
1.035541
0.015167
14-Feb-12
111.15
110.1
1.009537
1.019165
0.008245
15-Feb-12
111.5
110.15
1.012256
1.024662
0.010581
16-Feb-12
110.2
108.6
1.014733
1.029683
0.012704
17-Feb-12
109.25
108
1.011574
1.023282
0.009995
18-Feb-12
108.35
108.15
1.001849
1.003702
0.001605
20-Feb-12
108.95
108.3
1.006002
1.01204
0.005198
21-Feb-12
111.1
109.15
1.017865
1.03605
0.015381
22-Feb-12
112.75
111.1
1.014851
1.029924
0.012805
23-Feb-12
112.8
112
1.007143
1.014337
0.006182
24-Feb-12
111.9
109.4
1.022852
1.046226
0.019626
25-Feb-12
111.8
111.45
1.00314
1.006291
0.002724
27-Feb-12
112.85
111.4
1.013016
1.026202
0.011233
28-Feb-12
113.3
111.7
1.014324
1.028853
0.012353
29-Feb-12
113.05
112
1.009375
1.018838
0.008105
71
VOLATILITY RESULT OF ALUMINUM
MONTH
VALUES
DECEMBER
0.048031
JANUARY
0.044979
FEBRUARY
0.006385
CHART 5.3
ALUMINIUM
VALUES
0.050637
0.050343
0.04382
DECEMBER
JANUARY
72
FEBRUARY
INTERPRETATION
The above table and charts reveals the volatility of Aluminium
The volatility of the gold is high in December for 0.050637and low in February
for 0.04382. The standard error is high in December and low in February. The chance of
arbitrage starts from the February month to advise the investors.
73
VOLATILITY OF COPPER FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011

TABLE 5.10
Date
High
price
Low
price
(H/L)
(H/L)2
Log
Sum of
log
1/n
sqrt
K*n
1-Dec-11
420
410.6
1.02289
1.046311
0.019661
0.27934
0.01117
0.105706
0.063529
2-Dec-11
418.45
411.9
1.0159
1.032057
0.013704
3-Dec-11
415.5
414.9
1.00145
1.002894
0.001255
5-Dec-11
420.6
415.1
1.01325
1.026675
0.011433
6-Dec-11
416.9
413.5
1.00834
1.016758
0.007218
7-Dec-11
419.8
414
1.01401
1.028216
0.012084
8-Dec-11
419.25
412.5
1.01636
1.032995
0.014098
9-Dec-11
420
411.9
1.01966
1.039717
0.016915
10-Dec-11
420.25
419.7
1.00131
1.002623
0.001138
12-Dec-11
416.7
413.5
1.00774
1.015538
0.006696
13-Dec-11
418.45
415
1.00843
1.016941
0.007296
14-Dec-11
414.75
402.3
1.03108
1.063116
0.026581
15-Dec-11
404.65
395.6
1.02301
1.046541
0.019756
16-Dec-11
402.55
395.2
1.01873
1.037805
0.016116
17-Dec-11
400.95
399.5
1.00376
1.007524
0.003256
19-Dec-11
400
394.6
1.01368
1.027557
0.011806
20-Dec-11
405.65
397.1
1.02166
1.043789
0.018613
21-Dec-11
408.5
401.5
1.01743
1.035173
0.015013
22-Dec-11
408.75
403.9
1.01201
1.02416
0.010368
23-Dec-11
414
409.9
1.01013
1.020354
0.008751
24-Dec-11
414.5
414.1
1.00097
1.001933
0.000839
26-Dec-11
414.4
413.8
1.00157
1.003144
0.001363
27-Dec-11
412.9
410
1.00707
1.014196
0.006122
28-Dec-11
413.8
406.9
1.01696
1.034203
0.014606
29-Dec-11
409.35
402.5
1.01702
1.034327
0.014658
74
VOLATILITY OF COPPER FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

TABLE 5.11
Low
price
410.5
(H/L)
(H/L)2
Log
2-Jan-11
High
price
418
1.01827
1.036875
0.015726
3-Jan-11
419
412
1.01699
1.034269
0.014634
4-Jan-11
416.25
406.8
1.02323
1.047
0.019947
5-Jan-11
410.9
402.6
1.02062
1.041657
0.017725
6-Jan-11
408
402.6
1.01354
1.027261
0.011681
7-Jan-11
406.05
405.5
1.00136
1.002715
0.001177
9-Jan-11
405
400.9
1.01023
1.020559
0.008838
10-Jan-11
408.15
401.7
1.01606
1.032371
0.013836
11-Jan-11
411.5
405.7
1.01442
1.029051
0.012437
12-Jan-11
422.4
409.6
1.03125
1.063477
0.026728
13-Jan-11
423.9
415.2
1.02095
1.042347
0.018012
14-Jan-11
420.85
419.1
1.00418
1.008369
0.003619
16-Jan-11
423.2
417.8
1.01292
1.026017
0.011154
17-Jan-11
427.95
422
1.0141
1.028398
0.012161
18-Jan-11
425.2
420.2
1.0119
1.02394
0.010274
19-Jan-11
429.2
424.3
1.01167
1.023471
0.010076
20-Jan-11
430.2
420.3
1.02355
1.047664
0.020222
21-Jan-11
422.05
421.2
1.00214
1.004279
0.001854
23-Jan-11
426.65
419
1.01826
1.036849
0.015715
24-Jan-11
426.5
421.4
1.0121
1.024352
0.010449
25-Jan-11
428.6
422.6
1.0142
1.028597
0.012245
27-Jan-11
434
428.1
1.01378
1.027754
0.011889
28-Jan-11
429.9
428.9
1.00245
1.004903
0.002124
30-Jan-11
428.05
423.3
1.01134
1.02281
0.009795
31-Jan-11
428.8
420.9
1.01877
1.037891
0.016152
Date
75
Sum of
log
0.30847
1/n
sqrt
K*n
0.01234
0.11108
0.066759
VOLATILITY OF COPPER FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012

TABLE 5.12
Date
High
price
Low
price
(H/L)
(H/L)2
Log
Sum of
Log
1/n
sqrt
K*n
1-Feb-11
423.9
418.8
1.01218
1.024504
0.010513
0.3312
0.01325
0.1151
0.069175
2-Feb-11
423.1
415.6
1.01817
1.036667
0.015639
3-Feb-11
424.65
414.7
1.02412
1.048815
0.020699
4-Feb-11
425.3
423.8
1.00354
1.007091
0.003069
6-Feb-11
425.25
421.6
1.00866
1.01739
0.007487
7-Feb-11
426.65
419.7
1.01656
1.033393
0.014266
8-Feb-11
432.6
426.2
1.01502
1.030258
0.012946
9-Feb-11
439.6
428.9
1.02495
1.050517
0.021403
10-Feb-11
439.4
429.2
1.02377
1.048095
0.020401
11-Feb-11
430.6
429.5
1.00256
1.005129
0.002222
13-Feb-11
431.4
422.7
1.02058
1.041588
0.017696
14-Feb-11
426.45
421
1.01295
1.026058
0.011172
15-Feb-11
427.05
420.6
1.01546
1.031151
0.013322
16-Feb-11
422.3
416.8
1.01332
1.026812
0.011491
17-Feb-11
422.9
411
1.02895
1.058746
0.024792
18-Feb-11
413.55
412.4
1.00291
1.005829
0.002524
20-Feb-11
416.45
412.2
1.01031
1.020727
0.00891
21-Feb-11
422.2
415.6
1.016
1.032262
0.01379
22-Feb-11
424.1
419.6
1.01084
1.021808
0.009369
23-Feb-11
422
416.7
1.01284
1.025846
0.011082
24-Feb-11
424.35
416.1
1.01995
1.040297
0.017157
25-Feb-11
425.75
422.2
1.00853
1.017128
0.007376
27-Feb-11
427
421.5
1.01305
1.026268
0.011261
28-Feb-11
433
425.3
1.01822
1.036781
0.015687
29-Feb-11
432.4
419.2
1.03149
1.063969
0.026929
76
VOLATILITY RESULT OF COPPER
MONTH
VALUES
DECEMBER
0.063529
JANUARY
0.066759
FEBRUARY
0.069175
CHART 5.4
COPPER
VALUES
0.069175
0.066759
0.063529
DECEMBER
JANUARY
77
FEBRUARY
INTERPRETATION
The above table and charts reveals the volatility of Aluminum
The volatility of the gold is high in February for 0.069175 and low in December
for 0.063529. The standard error is high in February and low in December. The chance of
arbitrage starts from the February month to advise the investors
78
CHAPTER VI
FINDINGS SUGGESTIONS AND CONCLUSION
INTRODUCTION
This chapter deals with findings, suggestions and conclusion.
6.1FINDINGS:
The study is based on the secondary data collected from the MCX website. Moving
average and candle stick chart are used for analysis price fluctuation.
Among the selected commodities, the silver is highly fluctuated compared with other
commodities. After that, the commodity of gold is better than the other two. The
commodity Aluminum is worse than the other commodities.
Among the selected commodities, the silver has the high volatility compared with others
and the gold has the lowest volatility.
Over all the moving average of gold is more, in all other scrip the traders are ready to buy
and sell the commodity gold even though it fluctuates intraday.
Finally, aluminum is the best commodity among others in this study.
During the period of December all the investors faced a good opportunity to buy and sell
their commodities. But during the period of January and February the investors faced
negative result in their investments due to recession and high level fluctuation.
Among the selected commodities, the copper has the highly volatility compared with
others and the gold has the lowest volatility.
79
6.2SUGGESTIONS
Suggestion is based on the, Moving average calculation, Candle stick charts and
Volatility results the market news and company information is considered.
Aluminum is best for the investor who can bear less risk, because the candle stick rate is
less and lot size is less.
The investors should limits the risk and earn for high return.
The investor who can bear high risk can choose the commodity like silver to get more
return.
Taking high risk one or two days before the expiry date should be more aware about the
market news else there is chance for the trader to lose a lot.
According to risk bearing capacity the traders can trade in commodity market to get
more income.
80
6.3CONCLUSION
From the last few months, the dollar has lost its currency value with other
currencies and the investors are shifting their investment to Gold. Hence , the price of the silver
increases gradually in the market. Therefore, there is a high demand for Gold.
Due to
mismatching of demand and supply of gold, it is estimated that the gold price will soon reach
nearly Rs. 32000 per 10 grams.
In the world market, Silver is also increased gradually in every day. These lead to
the investors to enter into the commodity market for obtaining maximum return on their
investments with safety as well as liquidity.
81
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BOOKS
Avadhani.A.V., Investment Management, Bombay, Himalaya Publishing house,1996
S.L. Gupta., Financial Derivatives, Prentice Hall of India Privative Limited, New
Delhi,2005.
S.L. Gupta., Statistical Methods, Sultan Chand & Sons Education Publishers, New
Delhi,Thirty Third, 2004
Hull., Futures, Option and Other Derivatives, Presence Education. Fifth Edition, 1999
WEBSITES
http://www.sharekhan.com/
http://www.bseindia.com/
http://www.google.com/
http://www.ncdex.com/
http://www.mcxindia.com/
82
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CHAPTER-I

INTRODUCTION OF THE STUDY

The price of a bond, commodity, currency and share

A yield or rate of interest

An index of prices or yields

Weather data, such as inches of rainfall or heating-degree-days,

Derivative is generally defined as it is a financial instrument whose value depends on

Derivative products are classified as follows:

The-Counter (OTC) Market and others are in Exchange-Traded Markets.

1.1.1.1 Exchange-Traded Market

1.1.2 Commodity Market

1.1.3 Spot Market

1.1.4 About project

1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

1.2.1 Price fluctuation

1.3 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

To find actual price fluctuation of selected commodity in MCX market,

To estimate the volatility of commodity for a chance to the arbitragers.

1.5 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

1.5.2 Methods of sampling

Mostly traded commodities in MCX are selected.

Availability of data also considered for selection.

1.5.3Tools used for Analysis

Japanese candle stick

1.5.3.1 Moving averages

1.6 PERIOD OF STUDY

1.7 SCOPE OF THE STUDY

1.8 IMPORTANCE OF THE STUDY

1.9 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Only MCX data are collected.

1.10 CHAPTER SCHEME

Commodities Derivatives Trading

Initial public offer

Portfolio management services

2.1.3 ACHIEVEMENTS OF SHAREKHAN:

It was Winner of Best Financial Website award.

2.1.4.2 CALLED CALLING

2.1.4.5 HIERARCHY IN SHAREKHAN:

Senior sales executives

Senior Relationship manager

Assistant sales manager

Assistant Branch Manager

Area sales manager/ Cluster

Regional sales manager

Enterprise, Vol.5.January/February 1994.

Bank of England. Derivatives: Report of an internal Working Group, April 1993.

Hamilton(2000) concluded in his study on different models predicting GNP growth

Hamilton, Volatility and economic activity, IEA Research Paper.

Close Price in Rupees

MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO MARCH

GOLD DECEMBER 2011

MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012

MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO MARCH

SILVER DECEMBER 2011

MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

SILVER JANUARY 2012

MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012

SILVER FEBRUARY 2012

MOVING AVERAGE OF ALUMINIUM FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO

MOVING AVERAGE OF ALUMINIUM FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

MOVING AVERAGE OF ALUMINIUM FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012

ALUMINIUM FEBRUARY 2012