Country Profile

Bangladesh

December 2011

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The Fund for Peace Conflict Early Warning and Assessment

Country Profiles Series Editor J. J. Messner Country Profile Written by Kristen Blandford and Raphal Jaeger The Fund for Peace Publication FFP : CCPPR11BD (Version 12R) Circulation: PUBLIC

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Profile

Bangladesh

Numbers
Pressures
Failed States Index Score Failed States Index Rank Average Indicator Score Year-on-Year

Capacity
Core 5 + 2 Average Score Core 5 + 2 Rank

Combined
Capacity Minus Pressures

94.4
Maximum 120

25th
of 177 countries

7.9
Maximum 10

-1.7
Improvement

3.5
Maximum 10

139th
of 177 countries

-4.4

Pressures Assessment:

Capacity Assessment:

Alert

Weak

High Pressure Low Capacity

Outlook
Political instability, natural disasters, lack of nec e ss ar y r es ou rc es, i nt er na ti on al dependence, and poor economic policies are key factors preventing Bangladesh from realizing its economic potential. Corruption and impunity among the police and civil services inspire fear and instability throughout the country. Although such pressures are still apparent and present, the country is attempting to reduce their effects with a focus on more educational services and economic reforms. The consolidation of the democratically elected government for another year is a positive development for the c o u nt r y s s t a b i l i t y . P o li ti c a l factionalization seems to be a pressure that will not dissipate quickly, but the governments recent efforts and the international communitys support will hopefully keep the country on its gradual incline towards social, economic, and political improvement.

Comparative Statistics
Population GDP Per Capita (PPP) US$
Qatar D.R. Congo

Life Expectancy

Median Age

158,500,000
China Seychelles 1,339,000,000 86,500

1,585
US

23.5
Japan Swaziland
US

years
82.6 years 39.6 years

64.1
Japan Uganda

years
44.6 years 15.0 years

$ 91,379 $ 319

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Indicators

Social, Economic & Political Pressures

Social & Economic Indicators
Demographic Pressures Refugees and IDPs Group Grievance Human Flight Uneven Development Poverty and Decline

8.3
36th Poor
Year-on-Year Trend

6.5
52nd Weak
Year-on-Year Trend

9.2
9th Poor
Year-on-Year Trend

8.1
10th Poor
Year-on-Year Trend

8.4
30th Poor
Year-on-Year Trend

7.7
30th Weak
Year-on-Year Trend

Steady
5-Year Trend

Steady
5-Year Trend

Worsened
5-Year Trend

Improved
5-Year Trend

Improved
5-Year Trend

Steady
5-Year Trend

Improved

Worsened

Steady

Improved

Improved

Worsened

Recent Improvements and Declines

Bangladeshs low-lying terrain is prone to floods and cyclones, which frequently undermine food production and displace large populations. Climate change and water pollution have also put pressure on the countrys food security. Ethnic tensions and violence against minority populations contribute to Bangladeshs instability. Bangladeshs economy is fast-growing at a constant rate between 5-6% despite mismanagement, corruption, and political instability. The service sector, manufacturing and remittances are key contributors to the economy. Despite global economic crises and natural disasters, Bangladesh has made great strides in food security in recent years thanks to tax reforms and progress in school enrollment.

Bangladeshs Demographic Pressures score improved slightly as the government stepped up its food security program.

Bangladesh has an estimated 6 million workers abroad, including over 80,000 professionals who are expected to leave Libya. Bangladeshs Human Flight score decreased as economic growth returned to pre-global crisis levels.

The latest flooding has forced more than 10,000 people to flee their homes in 2011. In addition, 200,000 refugees from Myanmar live in the country, including 30,000 in two official camps.

The

Uneven

Development

indicator

dropped significantly due to the countrys pursuit of tax reforms.

The Group Grievance score increased 0.3 points due to attacks against ethnic minorities in the Chittagong Hill Tracts. A recent bill enabled the Hindu minority to reclaim its property taken under a controversial law enacted by the government in the 1960s.

Bangladeshs Poverty and Decline score improved slightly as growth in the nonagricultural sectors fueled increased consumption.

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Bangladesh

Political & Military Indicators

Legitimacy of the State Public Services Human Rights Security Apparatus Factionalized Elites External Intervention

8.0
42nd Weak
Year-on-Year Trend

8.0
41st Weak
Year-on-Year Trend

7.1
59th Weak
Year-on-Year Trend

7.9
30th Weak
Year-on-Year Trend

8.9
19th Poor
Year-on-Year Trend

6.2
88th Weak
Year-on-Year Trend

Steady
5-Year Trend

Improved
5-Year Trend

Improved
5-Year Trend

Steady
5-Year Trend

Steady
5-Year Trend

Steady
5-Year Trend

Improved

Worsened

Improved

Improved

Steady

Steady

Recent Improvements and Declines

The Legitimacy of the State score remained high at 8.0, reflecting the fragile stability maintained by the current government. The next general elections are scheduled for 2013.

The Security Apparatus score remained stable as the number of vigilante killings decreased.

The Factionalized Elites score remained high due to the intense rivalry between Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia.

Bangladeshs

Public

Services

score

remained high as a poor domestic investment climate hindered infrastructural projects.

The Human Rights score improved, as the government made commitments address issues in the country. to

Cycling through successive military coups and unstable governments, Bangladesh is currently ruled by an interim emergency government. While elections in 2008 represented significant improvement in the countrys adherence to democratic principles, subsequent infighting and rampant corruption has hindered political progress. The prevalence of corruption, extrajudicial killings by security forces, violence against women, and attacks against the media and political opposition are serious concerns.

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Pressures and Capacities

Trends and Comparisons

Multi-Year Pressures Trend

110 108

The large chart represents a magnified portion of the full scale, shown below:
120

Failed States Index (Pressures) Total Score

106 90 104

Alert

60 102 30 100 0 98 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

96

94 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Multi-Indicator Comparison
Pressures
Pressures better than average
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Pressures worse than average

80 90 100 110 120

Finland: Best Performer

Average of all 177 countries

Somalia: Worst Performer

Capacities
Capacity lower than average
0 10 20 30

Capacity higher than average

40 50 60 70

Average of all 177 countries Somalia: Worst Performer Austria: Best Performer

A visual representation of the proportion of the total pressure and capacity scores that are contributed by each individual indicator. Each color within the bar chart corresponds to the colors of the 12 Failed States Index (pressure) indicators and the 7 Core 5+2 (capacity) indicators. Guidelines are also provided to demonstrate the average score for all 177 countries, as well as the extremes of best and worst performers.

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Bangladesh

State Institutions and Civil Society: Core 5+2 Indicators

Leadership Military Police Judiciary Civil Service Civil Society Media

4.9
Moderate

2.1
Weak

4.0
Weak

3.0
Weak

1.7
Poor

6.7
Good

2.1
Weak

Pressures v. Capacity Plot Comparison

High Capacity
8.0 Switzerland Norway Finland France Estonia Cyprus

Ireland 6.0 Japan

Israel Georgia

Argentina 4.0

Mongolia Iraq Bangladesh

Low Capacity

2.0

This chart compares pressures with capacities by comparing the Failed States Index score (representing pressures) with an average indicator score for the Core 5+2 (representing capacity). Note that the capacity score is an average, as not all countries have been assessed for all Core 5+2 indicators as yet, due to insufficient data. (Note that the capacity measures are still under development.)

Libya Paraguay

Haiti Afghanistan Sudan Chad D.R.C.

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

Myanmar

C.A.R. Zimbabwe

Somalia

Low Pressure

20

40

60

80

100

High Pressure

120

Pressures v. Capacities Flat Comparison

A representation of capacities vs. pressures based on the difference between average capacity indicator score and average pressure indicator score. Higher Pressure, Lower Capacity Lower Pressure, Higher Capacity +10
Bangladesh

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

+2

+4

+6

+8

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The Fund for Peace Conflict Early Warning and Assessment

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