Currencies Daily Report

Friday| March 22, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| March 22, 2013

Highlights
US Unemployment Claims increased to 336,000 for w/e 15 March. German Flash Manufacturing PMI declined to 48.9-level in March. US Existing Home Sales was at 4.98 million in the last month. UK's Retail Sales increased by 2.1 percent in February. US Unemployment Claims increased by 2,000 to 336,000 for the week ending on 15th March from earlier rise of 334,000 in prior week. Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 0.6 points to 54.9-mark in March as against a rise of 54.3-level in February. House Price Index (HPI) increased by 0.6 percent in January as compared to rise of 0.5 percent a month ago. Existing Home Sales was at 4.98 million in February with respect to rise of 4.94 million in January. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index was at 2-mark in March from earlier decline of 12.5-level in last month. Conference Board (CB) Leading Index remained unchanged at 0.5 percent in the month of February.
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Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5658.8 18792.9 14421.49 1545.8 15936.0 1950.8 58497.8 12635.7 92.45 1613.80 2917.90 7609.25 102.09 Prev. day -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 0.2 1.3 -0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0

as on March 21, 2013 WoW -4.2 -4.0 -0.8 -1.1 -1.2 -2.6 2.1 -0.1 -0.6 1.5 1.3 -2.5 0.3 MoM -3.3 -2.8 3.0 2.9 -2.5 -3.2 3.3 10.9 -0.7 2.6 0.7 -3.0 -0.1 YoY 8.2 2.8 9.9 10.2 -4.8 0.5 -11.1 25.3 -13.8 -2.0 -6.8 -9.9 -0.5

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) depreciated by 0.1 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of favorable existing home sales and manufacturing index which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of rise in US unemployment claims coupled with US equities trading on a negative note. The currency touched an intra-day low of 82.835 and closed at 82.91 on Thursday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX) 82.91 54.44 54.32 54.33 Prev. day -0.1 -0.2 -0.25 -0.23

as on March 21, 2013 WoW 0.3 -0.5 -0.39 -0.38 MoM 1.7 0.1 -0.43 -0.40 YoY 4.3 -7.0 7.25 7.30

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.2 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated on the back of selling of dollars from exporters and banks. Further, upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX in the early part of the trade supported an upside in the currency. However, weak domestic market sentiments capped sharp gains in the currency. The Indian Rupee touched an intra-day high of 54.185 and closed at 54.44 against dollar on Thursday. For the month of March 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.7,135.60 crores ($1,308.64million) as on 21st March 2013. Year to date basis, net capital st inflows stood at Rs.53,633.70 crores ($9,943.20 million) till 21 March 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Further, uncertainty in the countrys political system after DMK withdraws its support from the UPA government will also exert downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency may not be witnessed on account of selling of dollars from exporters and banks.

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Mar13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for March 22, 2013 Support 54.20/54.10 Resistance 54.45/54.55

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| March 22, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated by 0.3 percent in yesterdays trade as ECB said it may cut the emergency fund to Cyprus bank after March 25 if a Cyprus does not come with a plan to ensure bank solvency. Further, unfavorable economic data from Euro region added downside pressure. French Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) remained unchanged at 43.9-mark in the month of March. German Flash Manufacturing PMI declined by 1.4 points to 48.9-level in March from previous rise of 50.3-mark in February. European Flash Manufacturing PMI declined by 1.3 points to 46.6-level in present month with respect to increase of 47.9-mark in last month. European Flash Services PMI dropped by 0.8 points to 46.5-level in existing month when compared to 47.3-mark in February. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.2879 and closed at 1.2897 against dollar on Thursday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments, strength in the DX along with unfavorable economic data from yesterdays trade. However, expectation of rise in German Info business climate will cushion sharp depreciation in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Mar13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 69.95/69.70 70.45/70.70 valid for March 22, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Mar 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.2897 70.11 70.1 70.2 Prev. day -0.3 0.4 -0.26 -0.21

as on March 21, 2013 WoW -0.8 0.6 -0.45 -0.42 MoM -2.2 2.8 -2.41 -2.38 YoY -2.4 4.66 4.68

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last Prev. day 0.50 0.487 0.32

as on March 21, 2013

WoW 0.6 0.47 1.42

MoM -0.5 -0.87 -0.62

YoY -4.4 2.53 2.89

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated by 0.5 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of favorable economic data from UK. Further, Bank of England (BOE) policy meeting minutes in yesterdays trade showed that the majority of policy makers were not in favor of more quantitative easing supported currency to trade positive. However, weak global market sentiments capped sharp gains in the pound. UK's Retail Sales increased by 2.1 percent in February from earlier decline of 0.6 percent in January. The Sterling Pound touched an intraday high of 1.5209 and closed at 1.5171 against dollar on Thursday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note in todays trade on the back of favorable economic data from yesterdays trade. However, weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX may cap sharp gains or even reversal in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Mar 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for March 22, 2013 Support 82.20/81.85 Resistance 82.80/83.00

$ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Mar 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.5171 82.407 82.62

82.62

0.29

1.42

-0.63

2.85

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| March 22, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated by 1.2 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 94.56 and closed at 94.88 against dollar on Thursday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to appreciate taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Mar 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for March 22, 2013 Support 56.75/56.40 Resistance 57.30/57.50 Last 94.88 0.572 57.12 57.12 Prev day -1.2 1.04 0.07 0.07 as on March 21, 2013 WoW -1.3 0.99 0.95 0.96 MoM 1.9 -2.19 -2.63 -2.67 YoY 13.8 -5.97 -5.09 -5.10

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on March 22, 2013

Indicator German Ifo Business Climate Country Europe Time (IST) 2:30pm Actual Forecast 107.8 Previous 107.4 Impact High

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