BI NGHIN CU NC-27

u t cng ln t u t t nhn?
Gc nhn t m hnh thc nghim VECM
TS. T Trung Thnh
Nguyn n Phc dch
Nguyn n Phc dch

 2012 Trung tm Nghin cu Kinh t v Chnh sch

Tc phm dch NC-27

Trng i hc Kinh t, i hc Quc gia H Ni

u t cng ln t u t t nhn?
Gc nhn t m hnh thc nghim VECM
TS. T Trung Thnh1

Tm tt
Yu cu ti cu trc ang t ra cp thit trong bi cnh Vit Nam bc vo giai on pht
trin 2011-2020, trong , mt trng tm l ti c cu u t cng. Bi vit vi mc ch nghin
cu liu u t cng nh hng tiu cc hay tch cc n u t t nhn s ng gp vo khuyn
ngh chnh sch mt cch thit thc, ng thi b sung khong trng trong nghin cu thc
nghim Vit Nam. Tc gi s dng m hnh VECM vi s liu thu thp t 1986-2010 c
lng cc hm phn ng v cc h s co gin. Theo , hin tng u t cng ln t u t t
nhn c th hin r nt. Trung bnh sau mt thp nin, 1% tng vn u t cng ban u s
khin u t t nhn b thu hp 0.48%. ng thi, tc ng n GDP ca u t cng l thp so
vi tc ng ca u t t nhn. Bi vit hm trong qu trnh chuyn i m hnh kinh t, cn
gim dn t trng u t cng, ng thi tng cng mnh m hiu qu v cht lng ca u t
khu vc nh nc.

T kha: u t cng, u t t nhn, hiu ng ln t, ti c cu kinh t, VECM

1

Khoa Kinh t hc, H Kinh t quc dn H Ni

Email: totrungthanh@gmail.com
Phone: 0942 399 337

Mc lc
1.

Dn nhp..............................................................................................................................4

2.

Tng quan v u t cng ti Vit Nam ...............................................................................6

3.

Phng php nghin cu v cc kim nh ...........................................................................9

4.

Kt qu nghin cu thc nghim ........................................................................................ 10

5.

Kt lun v khuyn ngh chnh sch ................................................................................... 14

Danh mc hnh
Hnh 1 Tc tng trng GDP v vn u t ca cc thnh phn .............................................6
Hnh 2. C cu vn u t ton x hi.........................................................................................7
Hnh 3. Phn ng ca cc bin s i vi cc c sc (th t Choleski PI, Y, GI) ....................... 12

Danh mc bng
Bng 1. Tc tng trng kinh t v vn u t/GDP (1986-2010) ..........................................6
Bng 2 . H s ICOR thi k 2000-2007 .....................................................................................7
Bng 3. Kim nh nghim n v (unit root test) .......................................................................9
Bng 4. Kim nh nhn qu da trn m hnh VECM .............................................................. 11
Bng 5 H s co gin ca u t t nhn theo u t cng sau 10 nm ...................................... 14

1. Dn nhp
Kinh t Vit Nam tri qua nm 2010 vi tc tng trng GDP 6.78%, l mc tng
tng i kh trong bi cnh kinh t th gii cn nhiu bin ng. Tuy nhin, nn kinh t ang
tip tc i mt vi nhng bt n kinh t v m din ra v gia tng mnh trong nhng nm gn
y, c bit l t khi Vit Nam gia nhp WTO vo u nm 2007, nh lm pht cao, t gi bin
ng mnh v kh lng, thm ht thng mi dai dng, d tr ngoi hi mng, thm ht ngn
sch tng cng vi tnh trng n cng v n nc ngoi ang dn n ngng nguy him, th
trng ti chnh - tin t d b tn thng vi nhng bin ng mnh v li sut, nim tin vo
iu hnh kinh t v m b suy gimMt trong nhng nguyn nhn chnh ca nhng bt n v
m thi gian qua l do m hnh tng trng theo chiu ngang, ch yu da vo vn u t, c
bit l u t cng nhng vi cht lng thp. M hnh ny v ang e da kh nng tng
trng bn vng trong di hn ca nn kinh t.
V vy, yu cu ti cu trc nn kinh t ang t ra cp thit trong bi cnh Vit Nam bc
vo giai on pht trin mi 2011-2020, nhm nng cao cht lng, hiu qu, sc cnh tranh ca
nn kinh t, to nn tng vng chc n nm 2020 a Vit Nam tr thnh nc cng nghip
theo hng hin i. Mt trng tm ca qu trnh ti cu trc ny l ti c cu u t cng theo
hng no nn gim hay tng u t cng, liu u t cng nh hng tiu cc hay tch cc
n u t ca khu vc t nhn?
Theo l thuyt, c hai gi thuyt chnh v quan h gia u t cng v u t t nhn. Gi
thit u t cng ln t u t t nhn cho rng, u t cng gia tng s khin u t khu vc
t nhn b thu hp li. L do l nhu cu ca chnh ph v hng ha dch v c th khin li sut
gia tng, ngun vn tr nn t hn, theo , tc ng tiu cc n khu vc t nhn. Ngoi
ra, vic ti tr cho chi tiu u t t ngn sch nh nc, thng c thc hin bi tng thu
hay vay n, cnh tranh mt cch trc tip vi khu vc t nhn trong vic tip cn cc ngun
lc ti chnh khan him ca nn kinh t. Vi quan im c ng thun l u t cng thng
c hiu qu thp hn u t t nhn, th gi thit ln t a ra khuyn ngh ct gim u t
cng h tr tng trng.
Gi thuyt ngc li l u t cng thc y u t t nhn (xem Bacha (1990), Taylor
(1994) v Agenor (2000)), do u t cng c th to ra ngoi ng tch cc cho khu vc t
nhn. Mt s ngoi ng c th k n nh i) vic cung cp cc c s h tng kinh t - x hi nh
4

giao thng, vin thng, gio dct u t cng to ra mi trng kinh doanh thun li hn
cng nh gim c chi ph sn xut cho khu vc t nhn tng cng u t v ii) nhu cu
hng ha dch v t chnh ph khin cu v sn phm ca khu vc t nhn gia tng, khuyn
khch khu vc ny u t nhiu hn do k vng v doanh thu v li nhun tt hn. Nu gi
thuyt ny c kim nh ng, khng nht thit phi gim u t cng, bi nhng ngoi ng
tch cc l cn thit cho khu vc t nhn, v theo l cho tng trng.
kim nh cc gi thuyt ny, c nhiu nghin cu thc nghim cc nc, s dng
cc phng php v nhng b s liu khc nhau. Mt s nghin cu s dng mu s liu tng
hp (pooled) t cc nc ang pht trin v nhm mt s nc pht trin nh Easterly v Rebelo
(1993), Odedokun (1997), Ahmed v Miller (2000), Everhart v Sumlinski (2000) khng nh
gi thuyt ln t u t t nhn ca u t cng ni chung. Tuy nhin, mt s khc, cng s
dng s liu tng hp cc nc ang pht trin li cho rng u t cng h tr b sung cho u
t t nhn, nh Greene v Villanueva (1991), Hadjimichael v Ghura (1995) v Ghura v
Goodwin (2000). Cc cng trnh khc nghin cu cc nc n l cng a ra nhng kt qu tri
ngc nhau. Trong khi nghin cu ca Mallik (2001) v Ramirez (1998) cho thy u t cng
ln t u t t nhn n v Mexico; th kt lun ngc li c tm thy Sundarajuan v
Thakur (1980) cho n v Hn Quc, hay Belloc v Vertova (2004) cho Malawi. Ti Vit
Nam, c kh nhiu nghin cu v u t cng v hiu qu ca u t cng, tuy nhin cn khuyt
thiu nhng nghin cu chuyn su v mi quan h gia u t cng v u t t nhn, c bit
l nhng nghin cu thc nghim kim nh hai gi thuyt c bn nu trn.
Trong bi cnh , bi vit ny s kim nh li gi thuyt liu u t cng ln t hay thc
y u t t nhn Vit Nam, c ci nhn ton din hn v vai tr ca u t cng trong nn
kinh t, t ng gp nhng khuyn ngh chnh sch ti c cu u t cng trong tin trnh xy
dng m hnh tng trng kinh t trong giai on mi.
Bi vit c chia thnh 5 mc chnh. Tip ni phn dn nhp l tng quan vai tr v hiu
qu ca u t cng trong thp nin qua. Phn 3 s m t phng php nghin cu thc nghim
v nhng kim nh s liu v m hnh. Kt qu c lng v phn tch tnh ng tin cy ca kt
qu nghin cu s c trnh by phn 4. Phn 5 s tm tt li ni dung bi nghin cu v mt
s khuyn ngh chnh sch.

2. Tng quan v u t cng ti Vit Nam

Bng 1. Tc tng trng kinh t v vn u t/GDP (1986-2010)
Giai on

Tng trng GDP (%)

Vn u t/GDP

1986-1990

4,85

12,6

1991-1995

8,21

28,2

1996-2000

7,00

33,3

2001-2005

7,49

39,1

2006-2010

6,90

42,7

Ngun: GSO

T nm 2000, Vit Nam theo ui m hnh tng trng ch yu da vo vn u t, tng

u t ton x hi lin tc tng v duy tr mc cao. T l vn/GDP tng t 35,4% nm 2001
ln 41.9% nm 2010, bnh qun cho c giai on 2001-2010 l xp x 41%, so vi 30,7% trong
giai on 1991-2000, thuc loi cao nht khu vc ng v ng Nam 2.
Hnh 1 Tc tng trng GDP v vn u t ca cc thnh phn
100.0
80.0
GDP
60.0
40.0
20.0

u t khu vc nh
nc
u t khu vc t nhn
u t khu vc nc
ngoi

0.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

-20.0

Nm 2007, t l vn u t/GDP ca Vit Nam ch thp hn so vi Trung Quc (44,2%), nhng cao hn nhiu so
vi Hn Quc (29,4%), Thi Lan (26,8%), Indonesia (24,9%), Malaysia (21,9%) v Philippines (15,3%). Qua cc
nm, t trng ny u c xu hng gim hu ht cc nc, trong khi Vit Nam li tng mnh v lun duy tr
mc cao.

Ngun: GSO

Qua cc nm, tc tng trng vn u t ca cc khu vc u thng cao hn nhiu tc

tng trng GDP (xem Hnh 1). Trong 10 nm, vn ca khu vc u t nc ngoi tng 5,1
ln, tip ni l khu vc kinh t t nhn (3,5 ln) v cui cng l khu vc kinh t nh nc (tng
2,5 ln). Tuy nhin, xt v c cu th khu vc kinh t nh nc vn chim t l ln nht trong
tng u t x hi, mc d t trng ca khu vc ny gim t 59,8% nm 2001 xung cn
38,1% nm 2010 (xem Hnh 2), theo , vic gim st ny khng phi do nh nc hn ch bt
u t cng, m do cc khu vc kinh t khc c tc tng cao hn.
Hnh 2. C cu vn u t ton x hi
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%

u t khu vc nc
ngoi
u t khu vc t nhn

50%

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010

Ngun: GSO

Mc d u t cng trong thp nin qua lm thay i ng k kt cu h tng k thut,

thc y tng trng kinh t, gp phn nng cao cht lng i sng ngi dn, song nh gi
hiu qu ca u t cng cn xem xt mi tng quan gia lng vn b ra v kt qu t
c (h s ICOR). Bng 2 cho thy hiu qu u t ca Vit Nam giai oan 2000-2007 l
tng i thp. Trong khi , ICOR cc nc trong giai on pht trin tng ng vi Vit
Nam hin nay thp hn nhiu (i Loan: 2,7 (1981-1990), Hn Quc: 3,2 (1981-1990), Nht
Bn: 3,2 (1961-1970), Trung Quc: 4,1 (1991-2003) (V Tun Anh, 2010).
Bng 2 . H s ICOR thi k 2000-2007
H s ICOR
Ton nn kinh t

5,2
7

Khu vc nh nc

7,8

Khu vc ngoi nh nc

3,2

Khu vc c vn FDI

5,2

Ngun: Bi Trinh (2009)

Vn u t ca nn kinh t c hiu qu km, ch yu l do u t cng - h s ICOR cho

khu vc nh nc l 7,8 cao hn mc trung bnh chung ca nn kinh t l 5,2. Hiu qu u t
cng thp l h qu ca hng lot cc yu t, nh u t thiu quy hoch, dn tri v phn tn ;
vn c phn b vo qu nhiu d n nn cc d n thng thiu vn v ko di tin , lm
tng chi ph u t, gy lng ph, to k h cho tnh trng tham , tham nhng, tham ; qun l
v gim st u t cn yu km lm tht thot vn u t v cha bo m cht lng cng trnh
nh d kin; phn cp quyt nh v s dng vn u t cha i km vi gim st, kim sot
cht lng v hiu qu u t...
Trong khi , c cu u t cng trong cc ngnh cha th hin r c vai tr b cho
nn kinh t. Trong giai on 2000-2009, u t cho cc ngnh thuc lnh vc kinh t lun chim
trn 73% vn u t ca Nh nc, u t vo cc ngnh thuc lnh vc x hi, lin quan trc
tip n s pht trin ca con ngi t 17,6% nm 2000 gim xung cn 15,2% nm 2009, trong
u t cho khoa hc, gio dc v o to gim t trng t 8,5% nm 2000 xung cn 5,1%
nm 2009; y t v cu tr x hi t 3,2-3,9% nhng nm 2004-2008 gim cn 2,8% nm 2009
(V Tun Anh, 2010).
Nh vy, u t cng vn tp trung vo mt s ngnh m khu vc t nhn c kh nng v
sn sng u t, trong khi u t pht trin ngun lc con ngi cn cha c ch trng v
cha tng xng. iu ny dng nh ang i ngc li nhng nguyn tc c bn cho u t
cng, theo , chc nng chnh ca nh nc phi l xy dng cc nn tng pht trin v tng
trng, ng thi tp trung vo cc lnh vc m khu vc t nhn khng th hot ng hoc hot
ng khng hiu qu.

3. Phng php nghin cu v cc kim nh

nh gi u t cng trong mi quan h vi u t t nhn ti Vit Nam, tc gi s dng
m hnh VECM (Vector Autoregressive Error Correction Model) vi ba bin s ( dng logarit)
l u t khu vc nh nc (GI), u t khu vc t nhn (PI) v GDP (Y). Cc bin s ny c
thu thp t nm 1986-2010 t ngun Tng cc thng k, tnh theo gi so snh 1994.
Phng php ny c u im hn so vi hu ht cc nghin cu trc y v cng ch
(c lng cc phng trnh OLS tnh). Nu nh vic c lng cc phng trnh tnh n l
thng phi c gi nh mnh v dng m hnh v quan h nhn qu gia cc bin, th m hnh
VECM bao cha mi mi quan h tng h ng theo thi gian gia cc bin, theo , phn tch
c tc ng trong ngn hn, cng nh qu trnh iu chnh n quan h n nh trong di hn.
Ngoi ra, phng php phn tch dy s theo thi gian cng trnh c mt s yu im ca
phng php OLS n thun nh hi quy gi (spurious regression) hoc t tng quan.
Vi phng php ny, 3 bin s GI, PI v Y s c kim nh tnh dng thng qua 2 kim
nh nghim n v ADF v PP (Phillips-Perron). Sau , kim nh ng tch hp
(cointegration) s c thc hin thng qua th tc Johansen. Nu cc bin s tch hp bc 1
(I(1)) v c quan h ng tch hp, m hnh VECM s c c lng v gi thuyt v u t
cng v u t t nhn s c kim nh thng qua phn tch cc hm phn ng (impulse
response functions) v c lng cc h s co gin ca cc bin s theo bin u t cng.
Bng 3 cho kt qu kim nh nghim n v (phng php ADF v PP) vi cc bin s Y,
GI, PI v cc sai phn bc 1: dY, dGI v dPI. Kt qu cho thy gi thit nghim n v cho cc
bin u khng b bc b, tuy nhin cc sai phn bc 1 li c tm thy c tnh dng. V vy,
cc bin s dng trong m hnh u tch hp bc 1.
Bng 3. Kim nh nghim n v (unit root test)
Kim nh ADF

Kim nh
PP

tr

Thng

Thng k PP

ADF
Y

-0.42

0.72

dY

3.28**

2.84*

GI

-2.42

-0.29

dGI

5.35***

5.62***

PI

-0.41

-0.46

dPI

3.94***

3.94***

Ghi ch: (***), (**), (*): c ngha thng k mc 1%, 5% v 10%

Theo phng php kim nh Johansen vi nhng gi nh khc nhau v c hay khng c
bin xu th cng nh c hay khng c h s gc v/hoc bin xu th, u cho thy gi thit c t
nht mt quan h ng tch hp khng b bc b3. S tn ti ca vector ng tch hp, th hin
mi quan h cn bng di hn gia sn lng, u t cng v u t t nhn, c m t bi
phng trnh sau:
Y = 6.57 + 0.23 GI + 0.33 PI
(30.46)

(28.17)

vi s trong ngc l thng k t.

Phng trnh trn cho thy, c u t t nhn v u t cng u c tc ng tch cc n
mc sn lng, v cc tc ng ny u c ngha v mt thng k. iu ny l kh nht qun
vi cc nghin cu khc v Vit Nam, theo , tng trng kinh t t c ch yu t vic tng
u t, bao gm c u t t nhn v u t nh nc.
Tuy nhin, c th thy hiu qu ca u t t nhn cao hn so vi u t cng, bi theo
phng trnh ng tch hp, 1% tng ln ca u t t nhn c th lm tng 0.33% tng trng,
trong khi u t cng tng 1% ch ng gp 0.23% tng sn lng trong cn bng di hn.

4. Kt qu nghin cu thc nghim

M hnh VECM c c lng vi tr l 3 theo ch tiu la chn AIC (Akaike
Information Criteria). Cc kim nh khc nh phn phi chun, phng sai sai s thay i hay

Cc kt qu kim nh s c cung cp theo yu cu

10

t tng quan u tho mn nhng iu kin c bn ca l thuyt kinh t lng4. Mi quan h

tng h ng gia u t cng, u t t nhn v sn lng trong giai on 10 nm s c
nghin cu thng qua phn tch cc hm phn ng5.
Tuy nhin, mt lu l cc phn d c lng c bi m hnh VECM phi cu trc
thng c mi tng quan ng thi6, v th, cn phi c cch x l trnh nh hng gi do
phn d tng quan. Do , cn c thm nhng rng buc ton b tc ng ca thnh t ngu
nhin chung c th hin cho mt trong cc bin s, hiu ng lan ta ca mt c sc s b b
gy v cc hm phn ng s c xc nh hp l. y chnh l vic s dng phn r Choleski
bao cha s bt cn xng trong m hnh. Theo , th t nhn qu gia cc bin s cn c
xc nh chy m hnh.
Kt qu c lng c t m hnh VECM c th c s dng kim tra chiu hng
tc ng kim nh nhn qu trong ngn v di hn. Bng 4 trnh by kt qu thng k 2 cho
kim nh tnh ngha chung cho cc bin tr trong cc phng trnh ca VECM (t ct 2-4), v
thng k z cho kim nh tnh ngha cho thnh phn iu chnh sai s (error correction terms)
cho mi phng trnh.
Bng 4. Kim nh nhn qu da trn m hnh VECM

GI

PI

Lag Y

Lag GI

Lag PI

EC term

3.85

6.45*

-2.21**

(0.2784)

(0.0916)

(0.027)

6.99

6.872

2.71***

(0.0724)*

(0.0762)*

(0.007)

3.70

1.31

-0.13

Cc kt qu kim nh s c cung cp theo yu cu

Cc hm phn ng xc nh tc ng theo thi gian ca mt c sc ni sinh no n cc bin khc trong
m hnh, bao gm hiu ng tc th v qu trnh iu chnh ng sau . ln ca c sc l mt n v thay i
trong lch chun ca bin s
6
iu ny c th thy thng qua ma trn phng sai v hip phng sai xc nh t cc phn d ca m hnh
VECM trong bi ny.
5

11

(0.2952)

(0.7276)

(0.897)

Ghi ch: S trong ngoc l gi tr p-value, (***), (**), (*): c ngha thng k mc 1%, 5% v 10%

Kt qu kim nh Bng 4 cho thy c mi quan h nhn qu di hn t u t cng v

u t t nhn n mc sn lng, cng nh t u t t nhn v mc sn lng n u t
cng. Mi quan h trong ngn hn t u t t nhn n mc sn lng, cng nh t u t t
nhn v sn lng n u t cng cng c tm thy. Tuy nhin, cc mi nhn qu ngc li
t u t cng v sn lng n u t t nhn khng c ngha v mt thng k. Nh vy, u
t t nhn dng nh l bin ngoi sinh yu.
Theo kt qu kim nh trn, th t trong phn r Choleski c xc nh l PI, Y, G v
Hnh 3 th hin cc hm phn ng theo th t ny trong thi gian nghin cu l 10 nm. Tuy
nhin, kim tra tnh ng tin cy ca kt qu c lng, cc hm phn ng ca cc th t
khc cng u c c lng v u a n nhng kt lun kh tng ng khi phn tch tc
ng ca c sc u t cng ln cc bin s7.
Hnh 3 dng 1 cho thy hm phn ng ca u t t nhn (PI) di trc ngang trong c
thi k 10 nm, hm u t t nhn b nh hng tiu cc t c sc dng u t cng. Nh
vy, gi thuyt u t cng ln t u t t nhn c kim chng ti Vit Nam. Hnh ny cng
cho thy tc ng tc thi ca u t cng n khu vc t nhn nm u tin l thp nht do
nhng yu t nh thng tin, t chc, thc hin, cng nh tr lan truyn. Tc ng mnh nht
v th hin y nht l nm th 5 k t khi u t cng gia tng.

Hnh 3. Phn ng ca cc bin s i vi cc c sc (th t Choleski PI, Y, GI)

Cc kt qu c lng s c cung cp theo yu cu.

12

Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations

Response of PI to PI

Response of PI to Y

Response of PI to GI

.10

.10

.10

.05

.05

.05

.00

.00

.00

-.05

-.05

-.05

-.10

-.10
1

10

-.10
1

Response of Y to PI

10

.016

.016

.012

.012

.012

.008

.008

.008

.004

.004

.004

.000

.000
2

10

10

.2

.1

.1

.1

.0

.0

.0

-.1

-.1

-.1

10

10

10

10

Response of GI to GI

.2

Response of GI to Y

.2

.000
1

Response of GI to PI

Response of Y to GI

.016

Response of Y to Y

10

Hiu ng tch cc ca u t cng i vi GDP cng c tm thy, theo , phn ng ca

sn lng i vi c sc u t cng l dng, tuy nhin nh hng ch bt u t nm th 2, tc
ng mnh v y nht l nm th 3 v sau gim dn, c bit gim mnh t nm th 7
(hnh 3, dng 2). Tc ng ny ca u t cng n sn lng r rng l rt thp so vi tc ng
ca u t t nhn n sn lng (hnh 1, dng 2), theo , hiu ng t u t t nhn l tc
thi, tng mnh cho n nm th 9 v vn gi mc cao t nm th 10. iu ny hm r nt
hiu qu ca u t khu vc t nhn cao hn u t cng, trong vic tng sn lng chung ca
nn kinh t.
phn tch tc ng di hn ca c sc u t cng cng nh kim tra tnh ng tin cy
ca kt qu nghin cu, bng 5 th hin h s co gin ca u t t nhn theo u t cng sau
thi k 10 nm, c xc nh qua cc gi tr phn ng tch ly ca cc bin theo cc gi nh
khc nhau v th t Choleski, theo phng php ca Preira (2001). Theo , kt qu th t
(PI, Y, GI) th t c gi nh ca bi nghin cu cho thy 1% tng ln ca u t cng
nm u tin s khin u t t nhn thu hp 0.48% (hin tng ln t) sau mt thp nin. Cc
h s tnh c cc th t khc khng c khc bit qu ln chng t kt qu c lng ng
tin cy.

13

Bng 5 H s co gin ca u t t nhn theo u t cng sau 10 nm

Th
t

GI,

GI,

PI, Y

Y, PI

PI, Y,
GI

PI,
GI, Y

Y,

Y,

GI, PI

PI, GI

PI
0.59508

0.59508

0.47606

0.51276

0.70055

0.47606

Trung
bnh
0.55927

5. Kt lun v khuyn ngh chnh sch

T nm 2000, Vit Nam theo ui m hnh tng trng da vo vn u t, c bit l u
t cng. Trong sut thp nin qua, u t cng tng trng rt nhanh, chim t trng ln nht
trong tng vn u t ca x hi, nhng li c hiu qu thp, ng thi ang c xu hng u t
vo c nhng ngnh m khu vc t nhn c th m nhim m li l nhim v xy dng cc nn
tng pht trin v tng trng. Yu cu thay i m hnh tng trng tr nn cp bch trong giai
on hin nay, c bit khi nn kinh t bc vo k hoch pht trin 5 nm (2011-2015) v 10
nm (2011-2020), trong bi cnh nn kinh t phi tr gi bi nhng bt n v m ko di v
ng lc tng trng di hn ang dn chm tt. V vy, phn tch vai tr ca u t cng i vi
tng trng kinh t ni chung v n u t t nhn ni ring c ngha c bit quan trng.
Trn tinh thn , bi nghin cu ny nh gi u t cng trn phng din phn tch liu
u t cng ln t hay h tr u t t nhn Vit Nam Vi s liu ko di 25 nm (19862010), m hnh VECM c s dng v cc hm phn ng ca cc bin s (u t cng, u
t t nhn v sn lng) i vi cc c sc ni sinh c c lng kim nh gi thuyt.
Kt qu thc nghim cho thy hin tng u t cng ln t u t t nhn th hin r
nt, tc ng l khng ng k trong mt vi nm u tin, v hiu ng s t cc i vo nm
th 5. Sau mt thp nin, 1% tng vn u t cng ban u s khin u t t nhn b thu hp
khong 0.48%. Kt qu nghin cu cng cho thy tc ng n GDP ca u t khu vc nh
nc l thp so vi tc ng ca u t khu vc t nhn, theo 1% tng ln ca u t t nhn
c th ng gp 0.33% tng trng, trong khi u t cng ch ng gp 0.23% tng sn lng
trong cn bng di hn.

14

Vi nhng kt qu trn, bi nghin cu hm rng trong qu trnh chuyn i m hnh kinh

t, cn theo xu th gim dn t trng u t cng trong tng vn u t ca x hi, ng thi
tng cng mnh m hiu qu v cht lng ca u t cng. Cn to c hi bnh ng hn na
cho cc ngun vn u t khc ca x hi, to ra cc c ch hiu qu huy ng ti a cc
ngun vn t nhn, gim dn s ph thuc, trng ch vo ngn sch. Ngoi ra, cn i mi t
duy v vai tr Nh nc trong nn kinh t, c th l gim bt chc nng nh nc kinh doanh.
Khng nn phn b u t nh nc vo cc ngnh m khu vc t nhn c th m nhim v
m nhim tt, chuyn trng tm ra ngoi lnh vc kinh t, tp trung vo pht trin kt cu h
tng kinh t v x hi, pht trin th ch v pht trin nng lc, to c ngoi ng tch cc
lan ta n khu vc t nhn, h tr khu vc ny trong qu trnh kinh doanh v ng gp vo tng
trng kinh t.

15

Ti liu tham kho chnh

Agenor, R. 2000. The economics of adjustment and growth. Academic Press. San Diego,
CA.
Ahmed, H., and Miller, S. 2000. Crowding-out and crowding-in effects of the components
of government expenditure. Contemporary Economic Policy, 18(1), 124-133.
Bacha, E. L. 1990. A three-gap model of foreign transfers and GDP growth rate in
developing countries. Journal of Development Economics, 32, 279-296.
Bi Trinh. 2009. Hiu qu u t ca cc khu vc kinh t thng qua h s ICOR. Bo co
chuyn cho Vin Kinh t Vit Nam.
Everhart, S. S., and Sumlinski, M. A. 2000. Trends in private investment in developing
countries. Statistics for 1970-2000. IFC Discussion Paper, 44, Washington, D.C.
Ghura, D., and Goodwin, B. 2000. Determinants of private investment: a cross-regional
empirical investigation. Applied Economics, 32, 1819-1829.
Greene, J., and Villanueva, D. 1991. Private investment in developing countries: an
empirical analysis. IMF Staff Papers, 38(1), 33-58. Washington, D.C.
Hadjimichael, M. T., and Ghura, D. 1995. Public policies and private savings and
investment in Sub-Saharan Africa: an empirical investigation. IMF Working Paper, 19,
Washington, D.C.
Odedokun, M. O. 1997. Relative effects of public versus private investment spending on
economic efficiency and growth in developing countries. Applied Economics, 10(28), 13251336.
Pereira, A. M. 2001. Public investment and private sector performance- International
evidence. Public Finance and Management, 1(2), 261-277.
Ramirez, M. D. 1998. Does public investment enhance productivity growth in Mexico? A
cointegration analysis. Eastern Economic Journal, 24(1), 63-82.
Sundarajan, V., and Thakur, S. 1980. Public investment, crowding out and growth: a
dynamic model applied to India and Korea, IMF Staff Papers, 27, 814-55.
V Tun Anh. 2010. Tm tt v tnh hnh u t cng Vit Nam trong mi nm qua, K yu
hi tho u t cng, Hu 28-29/12/2010

16

 NHNG BI NGHIN CU KHC

NC-26 Nhn li kinh t ton cu nm 2011: Kh khn tch ly v tng lai m m,
TS. L Kim Sa.
NC-25: S di c qua li Nga-Vit: Nhng kha cnh lch s, kinh t-x hi v chnh
tr, Alexey Chesnokov.
NC-24: Tng quan kinh t Vit Nam 2010, Phm Vn H.
NC-23: Tng quan kinh t th gii 2010: Phc hi nhng cha bn vng, Nguyn
Quc Hng.
NC-22 Ngun gc lm pht Vit Nam giai on 2000 - 2010: pht hin mi t
nhng bng chng mi, Nguyn Th Thu Hng, Nguyn c Thnh.

17