Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | April 2, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | April 2, 2013 News and Analysis

International Commodities
Performance during the day
Index Nifty Open High

Spanish Manufacturing PMI declined to 44.2-mark in last month. UKs Manufacturing PMI increased to 48.3-mark in March. European Unemployment Rate unchanged at 12 % in February. European equities are trading on a positive note after a gap of four days. Asian markets ended on a mixed note and US stock futures are trading in the green. Spanish Unemployment Change declined by 5,000 in March as against a rise of 59,400 in February. Spanish Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined by 2.6 points to 44.2-mark in March from previous rise of 46.8-level in February. Italian Manufacturing PMI fell by 1.3 points to 44.5-level in March as compared to rise of 45.8-mark a month ago. European Final Manufacturing PMI rose marginally by 0.2 points to 46.8-mark in last month with respect to 46.6-level in prior month. Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate declined by 11.6 percent in February when compared to 11.7 percent a month earlier. European Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 12 percent for the month of February. UKs Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 0.4 points to 48.3-mark in March as against a rise of 47.9-level in February. Net Lending to Individuals was at 1.5 billion Pounds in February from earlier 0.8 billion a month ago. Spot gold prices declined by 0.04 percent today. Weakness in the US Dollar Index (DX) coupled with upbeat global market sentiments cushioned sharp fall in the prices. In the Indian markets, prices fell by 0.41 percent but depreciation in the Rupee prevented further fall in the prices on the MCX. Taking cues from fall in gold prices along with downside in the base metals complex, Spot silver prices declined by 0.11 percent today. However, sharp downside in the prices was restricted on account of weakness in the DX. The base metals pack traded lower today on account of decline in Spanish & Italian manufacturing data. Additionally, mixed LME inventories also exerted downside pressure on the prices. Weakness in the DX cushioned sharp fall in the prices. Nymex crude oil prices declined by 0.1 percent today taking cues from expectations of rise in US crude oil inventories. However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned as a result of weakness in the DX. On the domestic bourses, depreciation in the Indian Rupee prevented further fall in the prices on the MCX. The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories are expected to rise by 2.3 million barrels for the week ending on 29th March 2013.

as at 4.30 pm 2 April 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5701.70 18863.82 12051.57 1996.81 15307.85

5754.60 19060.51 12107.40 2001.78 15442.40

5687.15 18826.53 11805.78 1973.27 15223.90

5748.10 19040.95 12003.43 1986.15 15223.90

0.77 0.93 -1.08 -0.49 0.54

Source: Reuters

Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE

as at 4.30 pm 2 April 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

82.87 1.2847 54.29

82.96 1.2877 54.365

82.645 1.2824 54.24

82.915 1.2836 54.275

0.02 -0.09 0.21

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 2 April 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Mar13 MCX Gold June13 Spot Silver Comex Silver May13 MCX Silver May13 Crude Oil Nymex May 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil* MCX Crude Oil April 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper April13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - April13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX April13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX April13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX April13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz

1598.99 1599.20 30047 28.01 28.23 52847 97.00 111.07 5281 7464.75 407.30 1890.00 102.85 2095 114.55 16604 908.70 1900.00 103.85

1603.60 1602.60 30047 28.17 27.9 52847 97.18 111.54 5293 7497.00 408.40 1898.00 103.00 2112 114.80 16660 908.70 1903.00 103.90

1596.54 1596.90 29902 27.90 27.9 52417 96.62 110.67 5268 7440.00 406.20 1872.00 101.70 2091 113.90 16430 897.30 1893.00 102.90

1597.81 1597.60 29906 27.98 27.9 52445 96.97 111.40 5285 7464.00 406.40 1873.25 101.70 2092 113.90 16437 897.30 1893.75 102.90

-0.04 -0.15 -0.41 -0.11 -0.05 -0.53 -0.10 0.29 0.00 -0.92 -0.40 -1.20 -1.60 -0.72 -1.04 -1.50 -1.63 -0.49 -1.11

Rs/kg $/bbl

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters.

Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | April 2, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, we expect precious metals, base metals and crude oil prices to trade on a positive note on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments. Additionally, weakness in the DX will also support an upside in the prices. US Factory orders data is expected to come on a positive note and if comes as forecasted will act as a supportive factor for the prices or reversal.

Technical Outook for evening session 2 April 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold June'13 Spot Gold Silver May13 Spot Silver Brent Crude April13 Crude Oil April13 Nymex Crude Oil May13 Natural Gas April13 LME Copper Copper April13 Zinc April13 Lead April13 Aluminum April13 Nickel April13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz $/bbl Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 29830 1591 51926 27.52 6005 5196 95.4 214.3 7400 402.55 100.8 113 102.2 888 Support 1 29881 1595 52300 27.77 6030 5248 96.34 217.6 7436 405.2 101.3 113.6 102.7 894 CMP 29920 1598 52550 28 6067 5285 97.01 220.1 7460 406.5 101.65 114 102.85 898 Resistance1 30000 1604 52840 28.18 6085 5313 97.55 222.7 7500 410.4 103.1 115 104 908 Resistance 2 30065 1609 53130 28.32 6115 5343 98.1 225.4 7570 412.9 103.5 115.6 104.4 913

Important Events for Today

Indicator Average Cash Earnings y/y German Prelim CPI m/m Spanish Unemployment Change Spanish Manufacturing PMI Italian Manufacturing PMI Manufacturing PMI Net Lending to Individuals m/m Unemployment Rate Factory Orders m/m Country Japan Europe Europe Europe Europe UK UK Europe US Time (IST) 7:00am All Day 12:30pm 12:45pm 1:15pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:30pm 7:30pm Actual -0.7% -5.0K 44.2 44.5 48.3 1.5B 12.0% Forecast -0.1% 0.4% 30.2K 46.2 45.4 48.9 0.9B 12.0% 3.1% Previous 0.1% 0.6% 59.4K 46.8 45.8 47.9 0.6B 12.0% -2.0% Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium High High Medium Medium Medium