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1. Introduction
This chapter gives the introduction about Load Forecasting, the important factors for load forecasts, Forecasting Component Patterns and Forecasting Methods.
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Economic development throughout the world depends directly on the availability of electric energy, especially because most industries depend almost entirely on its use. The availability of a source of continuous, cheap, and reliable energy is of foremost economic importance.
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Electrical load forecasting is an important tool used to ensure that the energy supplied by utilities meets the load plus the energy loss in the system. Load forecasting is a central and integral process in the planning and operation of electric utilities. It involves the accurate prediction of both the magnitudes and geographical locations of electric load over the different periods (usually hours) of the planning horizon. The basic quantity of interest in load forecasting is typically the hourly total system load. Accurate models for electric power load forecasting are essential to the operation and planning of a utility company. Load forecasting helps an electric utility to make important decisions including decisions on purchasing and generating electric power, load switching, and infrastructure development. Load forecasts are extremely important for energy suppliers, ISOs, financial institutions, and other participants in electric energy generation, transmission, distribution, and markets.
2. Literature survey
Economic development of the world depends directly on the availability of electric energy as most of the industries depend almost entirely on its use [1-2]. In this paper it is seen that the Electric load forecasting is an important tool to ensure that the energy produced is equal to the cons umer demand plus the energy loss in the system. In the papers [3-4], the authors have defined Load forecasting as basically the science or art of predicting the future load on a given system for a specified period of time ahead. The load forecasting methods have also been mentioned. Regression analysis is a statistical tool that compares the relationship between two or more variables. It is gives the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. It measures how much of the movement in the dependent variable is explained by the independent variables [5-8]. A time series is a set of observations generated sequentially in time. It is an ordered sequence of values of a variable at equally spaced time intervals. It is used to obtain an understanding of the underlying forces and structure that produced the observed data and to fit a model and proceed to forecasting, monitoring or even feedback and feed forward control [9-11]. At present one of the important tools of load forecasting is ARIMA model. It is obtained by combining auto regressive model and time series model [12-15]. One of the basic principles studied in mathematics is the observation of relationships between two connected quantities. An exponential function is one of the functions which give the relationship between two variables. These functions are often recognized by the fact that their rate of growth is proportional to their value [15-18]. A polynomial function is a function such as a quadratic, a cubic, a quadratic, and so on, involving only non-negative integer powers of x. We can give a general definition of a polynomial, and define its degree [19-21].