Professional Documents
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INTRODUCTION
In Unit A1 students were invited to think about issues of environment,
energy use, and sustainability. Given the environmental impact of home-
building, in energy and land-use terms, and the longevity of dwellings, the
importance of house design with respect to future climate scenarios is self-
evident. This is reinforced by statistics for England showing that 40% of
dwellings were built over 60 years ago, with 22% pre-dating 1919 (HM
Government: Dept of Communities and Local Government, 2005).
This essay considers the need to pre-empt changes to local climate, with
planners, architects and builders devising appropriate design and building
techniques to meet the housing challenges ahead. Assumptions underlying
climate change are examined; and the likely outcomes that need to be
addressed will be discussed in this document.
CHANGING CLIMATE
Over the last two million years, the climate has fluctuated between Ice
Ages, which can last for up to 100,000 years and warmer periods
(interglacials) of around 10,000 years in length. Currently, the climate is
within an interglacial period, although Milankovitch’s orbital theory of
climate change, which explains the transitions between glacial-interglacial
periods, predicts this may be coming towards its end.
With regard to the question this essay raises, the partnership between
UKCIP and CIBSE (Chartered Institute of Building Services Engineers) is of
some note. The collaboration between these partners, known as the KTP
Project, brings together academics, research organisations and industry
professionals to advance their aims (Westaway, R., 2006). These are ‘to
develop a coherent and consistent conceptual framework for using
weather/climate data in building design, and incorporate in this
framework a risk-based approach that will enable the building industry to
develop appropriate design solutions in order to increase resilience of
buildings and their systems against climate change, using emerging UK
climate scenario data’.
And in the wider architectural context, the Tyndall Centre for Climate
Change Research programme – Adapting to Climate Change – investigated
how changing temperature extremes will affect buildings, using a standard
multi-storey office block as their subject. Their report concluded that ‘With
many buildings in the UK being quite old there is a strong probability that
they will fail the comfort criterion by a larger margin than the example
used above. Hence there will be a need for major refurbishment to
maintain summer comfort. Buildings constructed under current Building
Regulations will perform better but these are in a significant minority.’
(Levermore, G., et al, 2004).
So just how warm might it become? Data suggests that London could see
peak temperatures of 40 degrees Celsius regularly in less than a lifetime if
high levels of greenhouse gas emissions continue (Westaway, R., 2006). On
the other hand, scientists report ocean current circulations are both slowing
and declining in volume, possibly as a consequence of climate change, and
the UK may lose the warming effect of the Gulf Stream (Bryden et al, 2005).
Should this be the case, then colder winters may also need to be factored
into the design equation.
How might a design for the future mass-produced home in the UK look? It
would need to have:
• good ventilation, preferably without air-conditioning (unless PV-
driven?)
• more insulation and/or thermal mass, to keep heat in during winter
and out in the summer
• flexible window systems to avoid solar gain in summer, and heat loss
in winter
• rainwater harvesting systems to capture water in times of plenty
• foundations capable of withstanding subsidence owing drought, or
effects of flooding.
And what about siting? May be obvious but best to avoid estuaries and
floodplains, which are likely to extend much further inland and more widely
than presently; and exposed sites open to prevailing winds or subject to
erosion. Other disbenefits to consider may include higher levels of humidity
and its effect on building structure and thermal comfort, and pollution of
underground water owing inundation by salt water or sewage.
CONCLUSION
At the beginning of this essay, the question “Are the UK homes of tomorrow
being designed for the past?” was posed. On present evidence then the
answer must be an equivocal “Yes”.
“Pioneers may be picturesque figures, but they are often rather lonely
ones.”
Nancy Astor2
LIMITATIONS
The scope of this essay is ambitious: with so many unresolved variables, the
argument raises more questions than it answers. Given the experience of
the writer it may have been more appropriate to address a simpler topic.
We cannot with certainty know all the effects of climate change on our
planet; climate modelling is a complex field, requiring manipulation of vast
quantities of data, through a variety of models, each with their own
limitations and inaccuracies.
FURTHER WORK
From the research undertaken, it appears little work has yet been done in
directing the field of climate change adaptation; most effort being focused
on mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions, and increased efficiency. The
research being undertaken by UKCIP and CIBSE will bear further
investigation. The involvement of RIBA and others representing the
architectural and building sectors within this process would be a welcome
step in the profession recognising their role.
WIDER CONTEXT
Negative social and economic impacts of living and working within a built
environment unsuited to the climate can include health problems (heat-
related stress and premature deaths in the elderly), increases in crime
(particularly violent crime) and lower productivity. Insurance on property
and contents may become increasingly difficult to obtain in particular
situations and locations.
Climate change and its effects will be global; the UK’s access to building
materials, resources and finance to plan and provide for the future may be
constrained by geopolitical changes that have yet to be predicted. The
economy may not be sufficiently resilient to continue to perform effectively
when facing the expenditure required to prepare for a more dynamic
natural environment.
FOOTNOTES
BROHAN, P., J.J. KENNEDY, I. HARRIS, S.F.B. TETT AND P.D. JONES, 2006. Uncertainty
estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850.
Journal of Geophysical Research 111, D12106. doi:10.1029/2005JD006548
BRYDEN ET AL, 1 December 2005. Climate Change: A Sea Change. Nature 438: 655-657.
FRIENDS OF THE EARTH, 7 March 2006. Sustainable building code for new homes "totally
inadequate". Retrieved 14th October 2006 from World Wide Web
http://www.foe.co.uk/resource/press_releases/sustainable_building_code_07032006.html
GEERTS, G. AND LINACRE, E., 2002. Ice cores, CO2 concentration, and climate. Retrieved
14th October 2006 from World Wide Web http://www-
das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap01/icecore.html
HM GOVERNMENT: DEPT OF TRADE AND INDUSTRY (DTI), 2004. Better buildings – better
lives. Retrieved 14th October 2006 from World Wide Web
http://www.dti.gov.uk/files/file15151.pdf
HM GOVERNMENT: DEPT OF TRADE AND INDUSTRY (DTI), 2005. Consultation on the Code for
Sustainable Buildings: Workshop Notes. Retrieved 14th October 2006 from World Wide Web
http://www.dti.gov.uk/files/file14051.pdf
LEVERMORE, G., CHOW, D., JONES, P., and LISTER, D., 2004. Accuracy of modelled
extremes of temperature and climate change and its implications for the built environment
in the UK http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/theme3/final_reports/it1_8.pdf
MORAN, J., 9 October 2006. The curse of Mr Barratt. New Statesman 35-36.
ROBINSON, M., 2005. Factsheet: How will changing temperature extremes affect buildings?
Retrieved 14th October 2006 from World Wide Web
http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/fact_sheets/it1_08.shtml
TYNDALL CENTRE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH, 2006. Building resilience to climate
change. Retrieved 14th October 2006 from World Wide Web
http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/programme3/programme3.shtml
UK Climate Impacts Programme, undated. Retrieved 14th October 2006 from World Wide
Web http://www.ukcip.org.uk/
WESTAWAY, R., 2006. Climate Impacts, and Adaptation and the Built Environment Retrieved
14th October 2006 from World Wide Web
http://www.ukcip.org.uk/resources/presentations/documents/47.pdf