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EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Z M N A K L I M AT U A M E Z I N R O D N B E Z P E N O S T K L I M A N D R I N G E R O G D E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E E L C A M B I O C L I M T I C O Y L A S E G U R I D A D I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I I MAM U U T U S E D J A R A H V U S VA H E L I N E J U LG E O L E K I L M A S TO N M U U TO S J A K A N S A I N V L I N E N T U R VA L L I S U U S C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A

EN

CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY


Paper from the High Representative and the European Commission to the European Council

INTRODUCTION

Z M N A K L I M AT U A M E Z I N R O D N B E Z P E N O S T K L I M A N D R I N G E R O G D E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E E L C A M B I O C L I M T I C O Y L A S E G U R I D A D I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I I MAM U U T U S E D J A R A H V U S VA H E L I N E J U LG E O L E K I L M A S TO N M U U TO S J A K A N S A I N V L I N E N T U R VA L L I S U U S C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G Paper from the High Representative* and the European C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C UREZZA INTERNAZIONALE Commission to the European Council K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D risks posed by climate change are real and its impacts are already Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E he ZP IECZEST WO MIDZYNARODOWE taking place. The UN estimates that all but one of its emergency A LT E R A E S C L I M Tappeals I C A for S humanitarian E SEGU RANA INTERNACIONAL aid in 2007 were climate related. In 2007 the UN S C H I M B R I L E C L I M ATSecurity I C E Council I SE CU I TAT Aclimate INT ERN A ONAL held its R first debateE on change and itsIimplicaZ M E N A K L M Y A tions M for ED Z I N security. RO D N Council B E has ZP E NOS international The European drawn attention P O D N E B N E S P R E M to E the Mimpact B E of I climate N M E D on Ninternational A R O Dsecurity N A and V in AJune RN OST change 2007 K L I M A T F R N D R I N invited G Othe C High H I N T E R Nand AT I European ONEL L SK ERHET Representative the Commission to present report to the European in Spring 2008. A LT E R A E S C L I M TaIjoint CA S E SE G U RCouncil AN A IN TERNACIONAL K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D better understood. The ndings of G G H A J L A T V L T O ZThe science S of S climate N Echange M Z is Enow TK Z I BIZ TfiO NS the Intergovernmental Panel onZ Climate demonstrate C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT ICI E SICU RE Z A Change INTE R N A Zthat I Oeven NALE if by 2050 emissions would be reduced to below half of 1990 levels, a * Mr Javier SOLANA MADARIAGA, K L ISecretary MA T O K A I T A temperature IR TA RPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS General of the Council of rise of up to 2C above pre-industrial levels will be dicult K L Ithe M ATA M A I to A S U N S TA R P TAU T I S K D R O B A European Union P and EU R High avoid. Such a temperature increase will pose serious security risks that Representative for the Common Z M Foreign E Nand ASecurity K Policy LMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T

C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

INTRODUCTION T

CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 2

INTRODUCTION

would increase if warming continues. Unmitigated climate change beyond 2C will lead to unprecedented security scenarios as it is likely to trigger Z M a N A K L I M AT U A M E Z I N R O D N B E Z P E N O S T number of tipping points that would lead to further accelerated, irreKLIM A Nlargely DRI N G E R climate O G changes. D E N Investment INTER N AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D versible and unpredictable in mitiga tion such as to to unavoidable to avoid scenarios, well as ways adapt the C L I should M Ago T hand E C HA N addressing G E Athe Ninternational D INT ERN AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y in hand with security threats CHA NGE E N change; T S C both LIM AT Ibe Qviewed U E SasE T of S preventive C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E created byM climate should part security EL C A M policy. B I O C L I M T I C O Y L A S E G U R I D A D I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I I MAM U U T U S E D J A R A H V U S VA H E L I N E J U LG E O L E K is best viewed multiplier exacerbates I L MClimate A S Tchange ONM UU T O as S aJthreat A K A N Swhich AIN V L I N E N T U R VA L L I S U U S existing trends, tensions and instability. The core challenge is that climate C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E change threatens to overburden states and regions which are already GH A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G fragile and conflict prone. It is important to recognise that the risks are not CAM B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E just of a humanitarian nature; they also include political and security risks K L Ithat Mdirectly A T affect O European KAIT A IMoreover, R TA RP Tthe Aconcept UTINIS SAUGUMAS interests. in line with K L I of M ATA P MA I AS Urelated N StoTthe A impact RPT human security, it R is clear that many issues ofA U T I S K D R O B A IL-B IDL A F L - K L I security M A are U interlinked S - S Irequiring G U RcompreT I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I climate change onIinternational KLIM A AT VE R A N For DE R I Nthe G attainment EN IN EMillennium R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D hensive policy responses. example, of T the Goals be at considerable because change, Z M I Development ANY KL I Mwould AT U A B E Z Prisk IE C Z Eclimate ST WO MIDZYNARODOWE if unmitigated, may well wipe out years of development efforts. A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L report focuses on the impact of climate change on international secuZ M This EN A KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS rity and considers the impact of these international security consequences POD N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T for Europes own security, and how the EU should respond. K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T A LT The ER Ais E S position CLIM T I C A Simpacts E S of Eclimate GUR ANA INTERNACIONAL EU in a unique to respond to the change KLIM AT V E security, R A N given DER N G role EN INTERN AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D on A international its Ileading in development, global GH A Jpolicy L Aand TV LT O of Ztools S S N EatM ZETKZI BIZTONSG climate the wide array and instruments its disposal. Moreover, the to strengths, CAM BIAM Esecurity N T I challenge C L I Mplays AT I CEuropes I E S I C U Rwith E Zits ZA INTERNAZIONALE conflict crisis K L Icomprehensive M A T O approach K A to IT A prevention, IR TA R management P T A U and TINIS SAUGUMAS post-conflict reconstruction, and as a key proponent of effective multiK L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A Z M lateralism. ENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T
3 CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

INTRODUCTION

Z M N A K L I M AT U A M E Z I N R O D N B E Z P E N O S T K L I M A N D R I N G E R O G D E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E E L C A M B I O C L I M T I C O Y L A S E G U R I D A D I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I I MAM U U T U S E D J A R A H V U S VA H E L I N E J U LG E O L E K I L M A S TO N M U U TO S J A K A N S A I N V L I N E N T U R VA L L I S U U S C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S the K L I M A T A P R M A I The A SEuropean U N Security S T AStrategy R P T recognised AUTIS Klink between D R Oglobal BA warming and competition for natural resources while the Communication I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I Europe inN the I World the effects of L globalisation K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N T highlighted E R N AT IO NA E V E I on L Iexternal GHEID relations. Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E A LT E R A E S C L I M T The ICA S E SEGURANA INTERNACIONAL report considers how the full range of EU instruments, including S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT Community I C E I and SE C U R Iaction, TATcan EA INT E R N A ION AL CFSP/ESDP be used alongside mitigation and Z M E N A K L M Y A adaptation M E D policies Z I Nto RO D N risks. BIt E Z PE N OS address the security also considers the impliPODNEBNE SPREME M Bfor E the IN Mcation E D of Npolitical ARO DNA AR NOST cations intensifi dialogue with V third countries. K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C Hagreement INTE R to Nbe Adeveloped T I O N by E the L Lend Sof 2009 K Eand RH A post-2012 has all E T of EU E foreign must work towards end. A LT E R A E S C L I M T levers ICA S S Erelations GUR AN A I Nthis TE RNACIONAL K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D report is in self the secu G H A J L A T V L T O Z The S concludes S N Ethat MitZ EEuropes TK Zinterest I B to I address ZTO N SG rity implications of climate change with a series of measures: at the level C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT ICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE of the EU, in bilateral relations and at the multilateral level, in mutually K L I M A T O K A I T A supportive IR TA RPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS ways. K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A Z M E N A K L M Y A Although M E Dthis Z report IN ROD of Bclimate EZP E on NinterOS addresses the N impact change response by impact national security, the EUs will be conditioned the C L I M A T E C H A N G E of Aclimate N D change INT R N itself. A T Climate I O N change A L will SE C Uaff Rect ITY onE Europe heavily Europes natural environment and sections society and the C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT IQU ES E T SCU Rnearly I T all IN T E Rof N AT I O N ALE K L I M A T A P R M A I economy. A S U N S TA R P TAU T I S K D R O B A I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T
CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 4

T H R E AT S

Z M N A K L I M AT U A M E Z I N R O D N B E Z P E N O S T K L I M A N D R I N G E R O G D E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E E L C A M B I O C L I M T I C O Y L A S E G U R I D A D I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I I MAM U U T U S E D J A R A H V U S VA H E L I N E J U LG E O L E K I L M A S TO N M U U TO S J A K A N S A I N V L I N E N T U R VA L L I S U U S C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S KLIM T Aof P Rchange M A are I AS N S TA R P TAU T I S K D R O B A heA effects climate being felt U now: I L - B Itemperatures D L A Fare IL - K icecaps L I Mand A glaciers U Sare - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I rising, and extreme weather areG becoming K L Imelting M A AT VERA N D events ERIN E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D intense. The following Z M more I A Nfrequent Y K Land I Mmore AT U A B EZ PIECZEST WO MIDZYNARODOWE section outlines some of the forms of conflicts A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A driven S E SEGURANA INTERNACIONAL by climate change which may occur in different S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L regions the world. ZM E Nof A KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T Conflict over resources K L I Mi) AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T A LT ERA E S land, C L widespread I M T I shortage C A S of E SEGURANA INTERNACIONAL Reduction of arable K L Iwater, M Adiminishing AT V E R AN Dfish ER ING E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D food and stocks, increased are Gflooding H A J and L A prolonged T V L droughts TOZ S already S NEMZETKZI BIZTONSG in E many world. Climate C A happening MBIAM N Tparts I C of L Ithe M AT IC I E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE change will alter rainfall patterns and further reduce K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S freshwater by much K L available I M AT A P RasM A I as 20 A to S 30% U in N S TA R P TAU T I S K D R O B A certain regions. A drop in agricultural productivity ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS will to, or worsen, in least lead food-insecurity devel oped countries and an unsustainable increase in food C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y across the board. Water shortage in particular C Hprices A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E has the potential to cause civil unrest and to lead to K L significant I M A Teconomic A P losses, R Meven A I in robust A S econoU N S TA R P TAU T I S K D R O B A I L - mies. BID L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I The consequences will be even more intense Z M in IA N Yunder K Lstrong I M AT U A Bpressure. E Z P I The ECZEST WO MIDZYNARODOWE areas demographic A LT E R effect A E Sclimate C L change I M T I fuel CA S E SEGURANA INTERNACIONAL overall is that will existing SCH I M Bover R ILE C L I M AT I C E where I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L conflicts depleting resources, especially ZM EN LM Y A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS access to A thoseK resources is politicised. K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A Z M E ii) N Economic A K Ldamage MY M EDZINRODN BEZPENOS and A risk to coastal cities and critical infrastructure C L It I has Mbeen AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y estimated that a business as usual scenario P OinD N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T dealing with climate change could cost the world K L economy I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T up to 20% of global GDP per year, whereas
Photo : Henning Thing, Danish Polar Center

THREATS

5 CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

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Z M N A K L I M AT U A M E Z I N R O D N B E Z P E N O S T K L I M A N D R I N G E R O G D E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E E L C A M B I O C L I M T I C O Y L A S E G U R I D A D I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I I MAM U U T U S E D J A R A H V U S VA H E L I N E J U LG E O L E K I L M A S TO N M U U TO S J A K A N S A I N V L I N E N T U R VA L L I S U U S C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A Bthe EZ P of IE C Z Econcerted STW O can MI limited DZY A ROD OWE cost effective action be to N 1%. Coastal zones home about fifth worlds population, number A LT E R A E S C L I M T are I Cthe AS E ofS E Gone UR A of Nthe A IN T E R NaA C I Oset NAL rise years their supporting S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT to IC E in the I S E Cahead. U R IMega-cities, TAT E Awith IN TE R N AinfrastrucIONAL such facilities by the Z M E N A K L M Y A ture, ME Das Zport IN Rand O oil Drefineries, N are B often E Zlocated PE N sea OS or in river deltas. Sea-level rise and the increase in the frequency and P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T intensity natural pose a serious K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O Cof H I N disasters TERN AT I O Nthreat E L to L these S regions K E Rand HET their economic prospects. The East coasts of China and India as well as the A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L Caribbean region and Central America would be particularly affected. An K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D increase in disasters and humanitarian crises will lead to immense pres G H A J L A T V L T O Z sure Son the S NEMZETKZI BIZTONSG resources of donor countries, including capacities for emerC A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT ICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE gency relief operations. K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S K L I M ATA P R M A I A S Nof territory S TA R Pborder TAU TISK DROBA iii) U Loss and disputes ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS Scientists project major to the landmass this century. changes during Receding coastlines and submergence of large areas could result in loss C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R ITY of territory, including entire countries such as small island states. More C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E over land and maritime borders and other territorial rights are K L I M A T A P R M A I disputes A S U N S TA R P TAU T I S K D R O B A likely. There might be a need to revisit existing rules of international law, IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I particularly the Law of the Sea, as regards the resolution of territorial and Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A Bborder E Z Pdisputes. IECZ EST WO MIDZYNARODOWE A further dimension of competition for energy resources A LT E R A E S C L I M T lies I Cin A S E conflict S E Gover UR A N in A IN TER NA Cbecome IONAL potential resources Polar regions which will S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT exploitable I C E I asSaEconsequence C U R I TAT E A warming. I N T EDesertification R N A I Ocould NAL of global Z M E N A K L M Y A trigger MEa D Z I circle N O D N migration BE Zconflicts PE NterriOS vicious ofR degradation, and over K L I M A T A P R M A I tory A SandU N Sthat TA R P Tthe A political UTIS K ofD RO BA borders threatens stability countries and Z M E N A K L M Y A regions. MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T
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Environmentally-induced migration Z M iv) NA K L I M AT U A M E Z I N R O D N B E Z P E N O S T K L IThose M Aparts N DR I N G Ethat R already O G suffer D E from N Ipoor NT E R condiN AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D of the populations health tions, or exclusion are rendered more to unemployment social vulnerable the effects which amplify trigger CLI M A T of E climate C Hchange, ANG E could AN D Ior N T E migration R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y within and countries. predicts that there willS be CHA NG E between MENT S C LThe I MUN AT IQU ES ET millions C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E of environmental migrants by 2020 with climate change as one E L C A M B I O C L I M T I C O Y L A S E G U of R the IDAD INTERNACIONAL major drivers of this phenomenon. Some countries that are extremely K L I I MAM U U T U S E D J A R A H V U S VA H E L I N E J U LG E O L E K vulnerable to N climate change areS already ILM ASTO MU UTO J A calling K A for N international S A I N V recog L I N E N T U R VA L L I S U U S nition of such environmentally-induced migration. Such migration C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C may U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E increase conflicts in transit and destination areas. Europe must expect G substantially H A J L increased AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G migratory pressure. C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E KLIM ATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S v) Situations of fragility and radicalization K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A Climate change may increase weak or T failing IL-B IDL A F I Lsignificantly -KLIM A Uinstability S - S in IG UR INTERNAZZJONALI states by over-stretching the already limited capacity of governments to I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT to AT the challenges they face. inability ofS a governZ M Irespond A N Yeffectively KLIM U A B EZ P IThe EC ZE T WO MIDZYNARODOWE ment to meet the needs of its population as a whole or to provide A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U protecRANA INTERNACIONAL tion in the face of climate change-induced hardship could trigger frustraS C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L lead to tensions between different ethnic and religious groups within Z Mtion, E N A KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS countries and to political radicalisation. This could destabilise countries P O and DN E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T even entire regions. K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T
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over supply vi) Tension energy Z M N A One K LofIthe Mmost AT U A potential M E conflicts Z I N over R ODN from BE Z P Ecompetition NOST significant resources arises intensified K L I M A N over DR ING Rcontrol O Gover, D energy EN I NTER Nin AT IO NA Lcontinue E SIK KE RHED access to, E and resources. That itself is, and will to be, a cause of However, much of the reserves are in regions vulne instability. because worlds hydrocarbon of climate change and many oil gas A producing states already C L I M A T Erable C to Hthe A impacts NGE AND IN Tbecause ERN AT I and ON L SE CU RITY significant social and instability isE likely to increase. This C H A N G E Mface EN TS CL I M economic AT I Q U Edemographic S E T S challenges, CURIT INT RN AT ION ALE has the potential to feed back into greater energy insecurity and greater competition for resources. E L C A M B I O C L I M T I C O Y L A S E G U R I D A D I N T E R N A C I O N A L possible wider use of nuclear for V power generation raise concerns about proK L I I M A MA U UTU SE D J A energy RAH US V A H might ELI N new E J ULG EO LEK liferation, in the context of a non-proliferation regime that is already under pressure. As previously I L M A S TO N M U U TO S J A K A N S A I N V L I N E N T U R VA L L I S U U S regions open up due to the effects of climate change, the scramble for resources will C H A N G E Minaccessible ENTS C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E intensify. G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G C A M B I A M E Nvii) T IPressure C L I on Minternational AT I C I E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE governance K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S system at risk the international community toI address the threats K L I M A T A The Pmultilateral RMA I isA S ifU N S TA R P T A fails UT SK D R outlined OBA Climate impacts of resentment responI L - B I D L A above. FIL - K Lchange IMA U will S -fuel S Ithe Gpolitics URT I N T between E R N those A Z most ZJO NALI sible for climate change and those most affected by it. Impacts of climate mitigation policies (orE I D K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H thus tension nationally The potential Z M I A N Y K policy L I Mfailures) AT UwillA Bdrive E Zpolitical PIEC ZE S T Wand O internationally. MIDZY N A R Orift Dnot OWE only divides North and South but there will also be a South South dimension particularly as the A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L share of global emissions rises. The already burdened international security S C H I M B RChinese I L E and C LIndian I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L architecture will be put under increasing pressure. ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A IL-B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I Reference: World in Transition Climate Z M I Change AN Y KL I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E as a Security Risk, Advisory Council on C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L A LT German ERA ES Global Change, Springer Verlag, S C HBerlin, IM B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L 2007. ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS constellations in selected hotspots K L I Conflict M AT A P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TAU T I S K D R O B A Climate degradation decline food ZMENA K induced LM Y A of M E D ZClimate I N induced RO D in N B E Z P Hotspot ENOS freshwater resources production C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D IEnvironmentally NTERN AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y Climate induced increase in storm induced migration P O D N Eand B flood NE S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T disasters K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T
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Z M N A K L I M AT U A M E Z I N R O D N B E Z P E N O S T K L I M A N D R I N G E R O G D E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E E L C A M B I O C L I M T I C O Y L A S E G U R I D A D I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I I MAM U U T U S E D J A R A H V U S VA H E L I N E J U LG E O L E K I L M A S TO N M U U TO S J A K A N S A I N V L I N E N T U R VA L L I S U U S C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E K L In M ATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S many regions, climate change is fuelling one or more of the threats identified above. The following sections K L I illustrate M A Thow A climate P R MA A S existing U N pressures S T A in R various P TA UTI S K the world. D RSince O the BA change is I multiplying regions around I L - EUs B Ineighbours D L A include FILK LofIthe Mmost A vulnerable U S-S IGU R T change, INT ENorth RN AZ Z the JO NALI some regions to climate e.g. Africa and Middle K L IEast, MA AT Vpressure E R A at Nthe DE R I N Unions G EN I Nand TE R N AT ION Aconfl L EictsV EIL IGH migratory European borders political instability and could increase inE I D Z M the I Afuture. N Y This KL IM AT Ua A Bcant EZ P I Eon CEuropes Z E energy STW O M IDZYNARODOWE could also have signifi impact supply routes. A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N TIONELL SKERHET 1.A Africa A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D Africa is one most to climate G H A J L AT V LT OZ of S thecontinents S NE Mvulnerable ZETK ZI BIZTONSG change because of multiple stresses and low adapC A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E K L I M A T O K A I T A tive I Rcapacity. T A In R North P T Africa A U and T Ithe N Sahel, IS SAUGUMAS increasing drought, water scarcity and land K L I M A T A P R M A I overuse A S will UN S TA R P TAU T I S K D R O B A degrade soils and could lead to a Z M E N A K L M Y A lossM EDZINRODN BEZPENOS of 75% of arable, rain-fed land. The Nile Delta both rise salinisa could be at risk from sea-level and C L I M AT E C H A N G Ein agricultural A N D areas I Nwhile T E12 R AofT I Oland NAL SECURITY tion toN 15% arable C H A N G E M E N T S C L Icould M AT QU ES E T S rise CU Rthis I T century I N T E R N AT I O N A L E be Ilost through sea-level in K L I M ATA P R M A I A S people U N affS TA PT A U today, TISK DROBA with 5 million ected by R 2050. Already climate impact ict IL-BIDLA FIL-KL I Mchange A Uis having S - Sa Imajor GU R T on the I confl NT EinR N A Z Z J O N A L I and around Darfur. In the Horn of Africa reduced rainfall and Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E temperatures a signifi negative impact A LT E R A E S Cincreasing L I M T I C A S will E have SE G Ucant RA NA INTERNACIONAL on a region highly vulnerable to conflict. In southern Africa, droughts are contributing to SCH I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L poor harvests, leading to food insecurity in several areas with millions of people expected ZM ENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS to face food shortages. Migration in this region, but also migration from other regions K Lthrough IMA TA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TAU T I S K D R O B A Northern Africa to reach Europe (transit migration) is likely to intensify. In Africa, ZM Eelsewhere, NA K L change M Y is expected A Mto Ehave Da Znegative IN D N in partiBEZPENOS and climate effR ect O on health, due spread of further aggravating tensions. cular to the vector-borne diseases C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T

GEOGRAPHICAL EXAMPLES

9 CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

GEOGRAPHICAL EXAMPLES

2. Middle East Z M N A K L I M AT U A M E Z I N R O D N B E Z P E N O S T K L I M A N D R I N G E R O G D E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D in the East are Water systems Middle already under intense stress. Roughly two-thirds of the Arab C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y world depends on sources outside their borders for CHANGEMENT S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E water. The Jordan and Yarmuk rivers are expected E L C A M B I O C to L see IM T I C O Y LA S EflG U R IDAD INTERNACIONAL considerable reduction in their ows aff ecting K L I I M A M U U Israel, TUS E Palestinian D J A territories R A H and VU S VA HELINE JULGEOLEK the Jordan. Existing ILMASTONMU UTO S access J A toK AN Salmost AIN V to LI N E N T U R VA L L I S U U S tensions over water are certain intenCHANGEMENT S in C this LIM ATleading IQUE E T political SCU R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E sify region toS further instability detrimental implications Europes security G H A J L A T Vwith L TOZ S S forN E M energy ZET KZI BIZTONSG and Israel might by 60% CAMBIAMENT I other C L Iinterests. M AT Water I C I supply E S in IC UR E Z fall ZA INTERNAZIONALE over this century. Consequently, a signifi cant drop in crop yields K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S projected arid K L I M A T A P isR M A Ifor an Aarea S that U is Nalready S Tlargely ARP Tor Asemi-arid. UTISK DROBA Significant decreases are expected to hit Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Saudi IL-BIDLA FIL - K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I Arabia and thus affect stability in a vitally strategic region for Europe. K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T South A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A 3. IN T E R NAsia ACIONAL K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S NEMZETKZI BIZTONSG Sea-level rise may threaten the habitat of millions of people as 40% of C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C Asias I E population SICUR EZZA INTERNAZIONALE (almost 2 billion) lives within 60km from the K L I MATO K A I TA I R T ARP TA UT I loss NI SAU GUMAS coastline. Water stress and of S agricultural productivity K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U SitTdi Acult RP A to U feed T I its S growing K D ROBA willN make forT Asia population Z M E N A K L M Y A M E Dwho Z Iwill N additionally ROD B E increase Z P Eof infecNOS be N exposed to an tious diseases. Changes in rains and the monsoon decrease the will more than C L I M A T E C H A N G E A N D ofI melt N Twater E Rfrom NA THimalayas IONA Laffect SE CU RITY billion icts over remaining C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S 1 C U Rpeople. I T IConfl NT ER N AT IONALE resources and unmanaged migration will K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O BA lead to instability in a region that is an I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I important economic partner of Europe with Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E factors S TW O MIDZYNARODOWE of production and distribution concenA LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G URANA INTERNACIONAL trated along vulnerable coastlines. S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T
CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 10

GEOGRAPHICAL EXAMPLES

4. Central Asia Z M N A K L I M AT U A M E Z I N R O D N B E Z P E N O S T K L I M A N D R I N G E R O G D E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D is severely Central Asia another region An C L I Maffected A T E by C climate H A Nchange. GE A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y increasing shortage of water, which C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E both key C resource agriculture E L C AisM B IaO L I Mfor T ICO Y LA SEGURIDAD INTERNACIONAL and a strategic resource for electricity KLIIM AM U U T U S E D J A R A H V U S VA H E L I N E J U LG E O L E K generation, is already noticeable. The I L M A glaciers S T Oin N M U U TO S J A K A N S A I N V L I N E N T U R VA L L I S U U S Tajikistan lost a third of their area CHAN G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E in the second half of the 20th century alone, GHA JL A T Vhas lost LT O aZ glaciers S in S NEMZETKZI BIZTONSG while Kyrgyzstan over 1000 C A M Bthe IA M EN TI C LIM AT ICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE last four decades. There is thus considerable KLIM ATO KA T ict A in aIregion R T AR PTA UT I economic NIS SAUGUMAS additional potential for I confl whose strategic, political and as well as A increasing challenges impact K L I Mdevelopments ATA P RM I A trans-regional S UN S TA R P T Adirectly U T Ior SK DROBA indirectly on EU interests. I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L America the Caribbean Z M E N A K L5. Latin MY A M E D and ZIN R ODN BEZPENOS P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T KLIMA T F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T In drier areas of Latin America climate change will lead to salinisation and desertiA LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L fication of agricultural land and to decreasing productivity of important crops K L I M A AT V E R Aand ND E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D livestock. This will have adverse consequences for food G H A J L A T V security. L T O Sea-level Z S rise is Sprojected NEM ZET KZ I BIZTONSG to cause increased risk CAMBIAMENTI CL M AT in IC I E Sareas. ICU R E Zin Zsea A surface INTERNAZIONALE ofI fl ooding low-lying Increases K L I MATO K A I TA IR T AtoR P Tchange A U are T projected INIS temperature due climate to S A U G U M A S have ects cause K L I M ATA P R M A I A S adverse U N effS T on A coral R Preefs, T Aand UT ISK DROBA shifts in the location of fi sh stocks. Latin ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS Caribbean American and countries are already subject to the detrimental eff ects, C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y many extreme events, associated C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M ATwith Iincluding QU E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E the El Nio cycle. Changes in rainfall K L I M A T A P R M A I patterns AS U N S TA R P TAU T I S K D R O B A and the disappearance of glaciers are I L - B I D L A F I L - K L I Mprojected A U to S signifi - S Icantly G Uaff R Twater I availability NTERNAZZJONALI ect Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A E Z Pconsumption, I E C Z E agriculture STWO Menergy IDZYNARODOWE for B human and A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C for A example S E S GAndes URA N Countries A INTERNACIONAL generation, inE the region. SCHIMBRILE CLIM ICE I S the EC UR TAT E Aalready I N T E R N A I O N A L in AT the Caribbean and Gulf ofIMexico are ected Z M E N A K L M Y increasingly A M Eaff D Z Iby Nmajor Rhurricanes. O D NThis will BEZPENOS be further exacerbated by climate change and result K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A political a region often Z M E N A K L M in Y social A and M E D tensions Z I Nin R O with DN weak BEZPENOS governance structures. C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T
11 CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

GEOGRAPHICAL EXAMPLES

CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 12

Cape Morris Jesup, Greenland Kurt H. Kjr, RINK project, University of Copenhagen

Arctic 6. The Z M N A K L I M AT U A M E Z I N R O D N B E Z P E N O S T K L I M A N D R I N G E R O G D E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D melting of the polar The rapid ice caps, in particular, the Arctic, is opening up new waterways and international trade routes. In addition, the increased accessibility of the C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y enormous hydrocarbon resources in the Arctic region is changing the geo-strategic C H A N G E M E N Tdynamics S C L Iof M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E the region with potential consequences for international stability and EuroEL CAMBIO CL I M T I C O Y L A S E G U R I D A D I N T E R N A C I O N A L pean security interests. The resulting new strategic interests are illustrated by the recent KLIIMAMUUT U S of E the D Russian J A flag R under A H the VU SV AThere H EisL N E J need U Lto G EOLEK planting North Pole. anIincreasing address ILMASTONMU Ugrowing T O Sdebate J A over KA N S Aclaims INV access L I Nto Enew N trade T U routes R VA Lerent ISUUS the territorial and byL diff C H A N G E M E N Tcountries S C L Iwhich M AT IQUE S ET S to Ceff Uectively RIT INT RN AT IONALE challenge Europes ability secure its E trade and resource the on its partners. G H A J L A T V interests L T in O Zregion Sand may S put Npressure EMZ E relations T K with Z IkeyB IZTONSG C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T

C onclusions and R ecommendations

Z M N A K L I M AT U A M E Z I N R O D N B E Z P E N O S T K L I M A N D R I N G E R O G D E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E E L C A M B I O C L I M T I C O Y L A S E G U R I D A D I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I I MAM U U T U S E D J A R A H V U S VA H E L I N E J U LG E O L E K I L M A S TO N M U U TO S J A K A N S A I N V L I N E N T U R VA L L I S U U S C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A IL-BI D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I he impact of climate change on international security is not a problem of the future but already of K L I Mtoday A AT V ER AN D ER IN EifN INT ERN I Othe N emissions ALE V ILIGHEID and one which will stay with us.G Even progress is made in AT reducing of E greenZ M house IAN Y K L I Mpatterns AT Uhave A already BEZ PIEC Z E temperatures STWO M ID ZY NA RODOWE gases, weather changed, global have already risen and, above A LT Eclimate RA E is Salready CLI M T I C Athe S globe. E SEGURANA INTERNACIONAL all, change being felt around S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L The role K of the EU in the climate change is vital and must The ZM E active NA L M Y international A ME DZ I N negotiations ROD N B Econtinue. ZPE NOS EU has demonstrated leadership both in international negotiations, in particular by advocating the 2C P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T and far-reaching decisions domestic energy the K L target, IMA T with F its R NDR I N GonO C H climate I N Tand ER N Apolicies. T I O Yet, NE LEU Lcannot S act KERHET alone. In a changing international political landscape, major emitters and emerging economies will also A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L to be engaged and commit to an ambitious global climate agreement under the UN framework. K L Ihave MA AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D GIn H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G the EUs response, special consideration needs to be given to the US, China and India and what the C A implications MBIAM EN Tthe I EUs C Llong I Mterm ATrelations ICI E SRussia. ICU R recommendations EZZA INT E R should NAZ IONALE mean for with The below be K Lcomplemented I MATO KA ITA I R up T by A coherent R P TEU Aaction UT IN I S at addressing SAUG by further studies and followed plans, aiming the U M A S K L different I M A dimensions TA P A I required A S to Uaddress N Sthe T impact ARP A Uchange T I Son Kinternational DROBA of R theM responses of T climate ZM E N in A K L M and Y effective A M E D The Z Iupcoming N Rexamination O D N of the implementation B E Z P E of NOS security a comprehensive manner. the appropriate tocomplement it, should take account European Security Strategy, and as proposals of the security dimension of climate change. C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E K L Enhancing I M A T capacities A P at Rthe MEU Alevel I A S U N S TA R P TAU T I S K D R O B A I L -A B ID Lto A FIL -impact K L Iof M A change U S on -S I G U R security T I N Tbe E to Rbuild NA ZJONALI first step address the climate international should upZ knowland own followed anE improvement in the prevention of, N and Z M edge IAN Y assess K L the I MEUs AT U capacities, A BEZ P I E by CZ STWO M IDZY ApreRODOWE paredness for early responses to, disasters and conflicts. Financial implications for such responses should A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L beIidentified considered in the SCH M B and R I also L EbeC L I M AT I CEUs E budget I S review. E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

13 CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

C onclusions and R ecommendations

could be developed include: Possible actions that capacities for research, warning Z M N A Intensify K L IEU M AT U A Manalysis, E Z Imonitoring N R and O early DN Band E Watch Z P Lists E including NOST the Institute for Security Studies, the EU Satellite Centre (EUSC), the EU Joint Situation Centre (SITCEN), K L I M A N D R I N G E R O G D E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D the EU Network of Energy (NESCO), Correspondents the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security and Joint Research Centres. Monitoring and early warning needs to include in particular C L I M A T situations E C HofA N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y state fragility and political radicalisation, tensions over resources and energy supplies, CHANGEM E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E environmental and socio-economic stresses, threats to critical infrastructures and economic assets, E L C A M B border IO C L I M T I C O Y L A S E G U R I D A D I N T E R N A C I O N A L disputes, impact on human rights and potential migratory movements. K L I I MAM U U T U S E D J A R A H V U S VA H E L I N E J U LG E O L E K ILMAST N Mbuild U Uup T EU O and S J A K State A Nplanning SAIN Vcapabilities LINE N TU Rprotection V A L Land I S the UUS O Further Member and including civil CHANGEM Eof N T Smanagement C L I M AT I disaster Q U E response S E T instruments S C U R(civil IT NTER AT I Oto N ALE use crisis and andImilitary) toN contribute the the risks byS climate G H A J L response A T Vto Lsecurity TOZ posed S N change. EMZETKZI BIZTONSG C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E T Commission further in more implications KLIMA O KA I T work A to I look, R region-by-region, TARPTA U Tdetail I NatIwhat S the S security AUG UMAS are likely to be and how they will affect EU interests. K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A IL-BIDL A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I EU multilateral leadership to promote global climate security K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D Climate is a U key element international will be increasingly so inN the coming years, ZMIANY K L change I M AT A B Eof Z P I E C Zrelations E S and TW O MIDZ Y A ROD OWE including dimension. If A recognised, can aA positive for improving and A LT E R A E its S security CLIM T I C S E SitE Geven U Rbecome AN I N driver TER N ACIO NAL reforming global governance. As it is a global problem, the EU is advocating a multilateral response. S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L successful Bali conference in Dec 2007 to continue and strengthen Z M E N Building A K on L the M Y A MEDZ IN the R EU Oneeds DN BE Z P E its NleadOS ership towards an ambitious post-2012 agreement in 2009, including both mitigation and adaptation PODNE B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T action by all countries as a key contribution to addressing climate security. K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T A LT E R A E S Cthat L I could M T I C A S include: E SEGURANA INTERNACIONAL Possible actions be developed K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D L Focus theZ security the arena; in N particGHAJ A T attention V L on TO S risks related S N to E climate M Z change E T Kin Zmultilateral I BIZ TO SG ular within the UN Security Council, the G8 as well as the UN specialised bodies (among others by CAMBIAM E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E addressing a possible need to strengthen certain rules of international law, including the Law of K L I M A Tthe O K AITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS Sea). K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T
CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 14

C onclusions and R ecommendations

international cooperation on the detection and of the Enhance monitoring security threats related to climate change, and on prevention, preparedness, mitigation and response capacities. Promote Z M N A K L I M AT U A M E Z I N R O D N B E Z P E N O S T the development of regional security scenarios for different levels of climate change and their impliKLIM A N D R I N G E R O G D E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D cations for international security. C L I M AT E CHANGE A N D migratory INTE RN Tfurther ION AL SE Consider environmentally-triggered additional stress in A the development of C a U R I T Y CHAN GEMEN T S Cmigration L I M AT I Q in Uliaison E S with E T all Srelevant C Uinternational RIT IN T E R N AT I O N A L E comprehensive European policy, bodies. E L C A M B I O C L I M T I C O Y L A S E G U R I D A D I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L Cooperation I I M A Mwith UU T countries U S E D J A R A H V U S VA H E L I N E J U LG E O L E K third ILM A S TO N M U U TO S J A K A N S A I N V L I N E N T U R VA L L I S U U S Climate change calls for revisiting and reinforcing EU cooperation and political dialogue instruments, C Hgiving ANG E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E more attention to the impact of climate change on security. This could lead to greater prioritisa Gtion H and A Jenhanced L A T support V Lfor T climate OZ S S N and EM ZETK governance, Z I B I natural ZTONSG change mitigation adaptation, good C A resource MBIA M E N Ttechnology I CLIM AT Itrans-boundary CI E SIC UREZZ A I N T(inter E Ralia N water AZIONALE management, transfer, environmental cooperation K Land IM Ainstitutional T O Kstrengthening A I T A and I capacity R T building ARP T A management. UTINIS SAUGUMAS land), for crisis K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A beL developed I L - Possible B I D actions L A that F Icould L-K I M A include: U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I K L I MFurther A ATintegrate VERA N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D adaptation and resilience to climate change into EU regional strategies (for Z M I Aexample NY K L I M AT U A European B E Z PNeighbourhood IECZES T WEU-Africa O M I Strategy, DZY NARODOWE Northern Dimension, Policy, Barcelona A LT EProcess, R A Black E Sea S C LIM T I C A SStrategy, E SE G U East R Aaction N plan). A IN T E attention RNACIONAL Synergy, EU-Central Asia Middle Special S C H I should MB ILE C most LIM AT I Cregions E I and SE CUR I TAT E A hot IN T E The RN A I O N A L beR given to the vulnerable potential climate security spots. Global between should be N O S Z M EClimate N A Change K LAlliance MY A the MEU Eand Dthe Z most I Nvulnerable R O developing D N countries BEZ PE built upon. P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T EDevelop Arctic policy evolving of N the Arctic region, taking A LT R A an EU ES CL I Mbased T Ion Cthe AS E Sgeo-strategy EGURA A I NTE R Ninto ACIONAL account i.a. access to resources and the opening of new trade routes. K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D G HExamine A J L the AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G security implications of climate change in dialogue with third countries including C A M through BIAM N T Iof analyses. C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E theE sharing K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T
15 CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Z M N A K L I M AT U A M E Z I N R O D N B E Z P E N O S T K L I M A N D R I N G E R O G D E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E E L C A M B I O C L I M T I C O Y L A S E G U R I D A D I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I I MAM U U T U S E D J A R A H V U S VA H E L I N E J U LG E O L E K I L M A S TO N M U U TO S J A K A N S A I N V L I N E N T U R VA L L I S U U S C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A
QC-81-08-248-EN-C

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CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 16

10.2860/50106

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