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Z M N A K L I M AT U A M E Z I N R O D N B E Z P E N O S T K L I M A N D R I N G E R O G D E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E E L C A M B I O C L I M T I C O Y L A S E G U R I D A D I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I I MAM U U T U S E D J A R A H V U S VA H E L I N E J U LG E O L E K I L M A S TO N M U U TO S J A K A N S A I N V L I N E N T U R VA L L I S U U S C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A
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INTRODUCTION
Z M N A K L I M AT U A M E Z I N R O D N B E Z P E N O S T K L I M A N D R I N G E R O G D E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E E L C A M B I O C L I M T I C O Y L A S E G U R I D A D I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I I MAM U U T U S E D J A R A H V U S VA H E L I N E J U LG E O L E K I L M A S TO N M U U TO S J A K A N S A I N V L I N E N T U R VA L L I S U U S C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G Paper from the High Representative* and the European C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C UREZZA INTERNAZIONALE Commission to the European Council K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D risks posed by climate change are real and its impacts are already Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E he ZP IECZEST WO MIDZYNARODOWE taking place. The UN estimates that all but one of its emergency A LT E R A E S C L I M Tappeals I C A for S humanitarian E SEGU RANA INTERNACIONAL aid in 2007 were climate related. In 2007 the UN S C H I M B R I L E C L I M ATSecurity I C E Council I SE CU I TAT Aclimate INT ERN A ONAL held its R first debateE on change and itsIimplicaZ M E N A K L M Y A tions M for ED Z I N security. RO D N Council B E has ZP E NOS international The European drawn attention P O D N E B N E S P R E M to E the Mimpact B E of I climate N M E D on Ninternational A R O Dsecurity N A and V in AJune RN OST change 2007 K L I M A T F R N D R I N invited G Othe C High H I N T E R Nand AT I European ONEL L SK ERHET Representative the Commission to present report to the European in Spring 2008. A LT E R A E S C L I M TaIjoint CA S E SE G U RCouncil AN A IN TERNACIONAL K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D better understood. The ndings of G G H A J L A T V L T O ZThe science S of S climate N Echange M Z is Enow TK Z I BIZ TfiO NS the Intergovernmental Panel onZ Climate demonstrate C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT ICI E SICU RE Z A Change INTE R N A Zthat I Oeven NALE if by 2050 emissions would be reduced to below half of 1990 levels, a * Mr Javier SOLANA MADARIAGA, K L ISecretary MA T O K A I T A temperature IR TA RPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS General of the Council of rise of up to 2C above pre-industrial levels will be dicult K L Ithe M ATA M A I to A S U N S TA R P TAU T I S K D R O B A European Union P and EU R High avoid. Such a temperature increase will pose serious security risks that Representative for the Common Z M Foreign E Nand ASecurity K Policy LMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T
C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
INTRODUCTION T
INTRODUCTION
would increase if warming continues. Unmitigated climate change beyond 2C will lead to unprecedented security scenarios as it is likely to trigger Z M a N A K L I M AT U A M E Z I N R O D N B E Z P E N O S T number of tipping points that would lead to further accelerated, irreKLIM A Nlargely DRI N G E R climate O G changes. D E N Investment INTER N AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D versible and unpredictable in mitiga tion such as to to unavoidable to avoid scenarios, well as ways adapt the C L I should M Ago T hand E C HA N addressing G E Athe Ninternational D INT ERN AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y in hand with security threats CHA NGE E N change; T S C both LIM AT Ibe Qviewed U E SasE T of S preventive C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E created byM climate should part security EL C A M policy. B I O C L I M T I C O Y L A S E G U R I D A D I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I I MAM U U T U S E D J A R A H V U S VA H E L I N E J U LG E O L E K is best viewed multiplier exacerbates I L MClimate A S Tchange ONM UU T O as S aJthreat A K A N Swhich AIN V L I N E N T U R VA L L I S U U S existing trends, tensions and instability. The core challenge is that climate C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E change threatens to overburden states and regions which are already GH A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G fragile and conflict prone. It is important to recognise that the risks are not CAM B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E just of a humanitarian nature; they also include political and security risks K L Ithat Mdirectly A T affect O European KAIT A IMoreover, R TA RP Tthe Aconcept UTINIS SAUGUMAS interests. in line with K L I of M ATA P MA I AS Urelated N StoTthe A impact RPT human security, it R is clear that many issues ofA U T I S K D R O B A IL-B IDL A F L - K L I security M A are U interlinked S - S Irequiring G U RcompreT I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I climate change onIinternational KLIM A AT VE R A N For DE R I Nthe G attainment EN IN EMillennium R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D hensive policy responses. example, of T the Goals be at considerable because change, Z M I Development ANY KL I Mwould AT U A B E Z Prisk IE C Z Eclimate ST WO MIDZYNARODOWE if unmitigated, may well wipe out years of development efforts. A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L report focuses on the impact of climate change on international secuZ M This EN A KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS rity and considers the impact of these international security consequences POD N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T for Europes own security, and how the EU should respond. K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T A LT The ER Ais E S position CLIM T I C A Simpacts E S of Eclimate GUR ANA INTERNACIONAL EU in a unique to respond to the change KLIM AT V E security, R A N given DER N G role EN INTERN AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D on A international its Ileading in development, global GH A Jpolicy L Aand TV LT O of Ztools S S N EatM ZETKZI BIZTONSG climate the wide array and instruments its disposal. Moreover, the to strengths, CAM BIAM Esecurity N T I challenge C L I Mplays AT I CEuropes I E S I C U Rwith E Zits ZA INTERNAZIONALE conflict crisis K L Icomprehensive M A T O approach K A to IT A prevention, IR TA R management P T A U and TINIS SAUGUMAS post-conflict reconstruction, and as a key proponent of effective multiK L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A Z M lateralism. ENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T
3 CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
INTRODUCTION
Z M N A K L I M AT U A M E Z I N R O D N B E Z P E N O S T K L I M A N D R I N G E R O G D E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E E L C A M B I O C L I M T I C O Y L A S E G U R I D A D I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I I MAM U U T U S E D J A R A H V U S VA H E L I N E J U LG E O L E K I L M A S TO N M U U TO S J A K A N S A I N V L I N E N T U R VA L L I S U U S C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S the K L I M A T A P R M A I The A SEuropean U N Security S T AStrategy R P T recognised AUTIS Klink between D R Oglobal BA warming and competition for natural resources while the Communication I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I Europe inN the I World the effects of L globalisation K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N T highlighted E R N AT IO NA E V E I on L Iexternal GHEID relations. Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E A LT E R A E S C L I M T The ICA S E SEGURANA INTERNACIONAL report considers how the full range of EU instruments, including S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT Community I C E I and SE C U R Iaction, TATcan EA INT E R N A ION AL CFSP/ESDP be used alongside mitigation and Z M E N A K L M Y A adaptation M E D policies Z I Nto RO D N risks. BIt E Z PE N OS address the security also considers the impliPODNEBNE SPREME M Bfor E the IN Mcation E D of Npolitical ARO DNA AR NOST cations intensifi dialogue with V third countries. K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C Hagreement INTE R to Nbe Adeveloped T I O N by E the L Lend Sof 2009 K Eand RH A post-2012 has all E T of EU E foreign must work towards end. A LT E R A E S C L I M T levers ICA S S Erelations GUR AN A I Nthis TE RNACIONAL K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D report is in self the secu G H A J L A T V L T O Z The S concludes S N Ethat MitZ EEuropes TK Zinterest I B to I address ZTO N SG rity implications of climate change with a series of measures: at the level C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT ICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE of the EU, in bilateral relations and at the multilateral level, in mutually K L I M A T O K A I T A supportive IR TA RPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS ways. K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A Z M E N A K L M Y A Although M E Dthis Z report IN ROD of Bclimate EZP E on NinterOS addresses the N impact change response by impact national security, the EUs will be conditioned the C L I M A T E C H A N G E of Aclimate N D change INT R N itself. A T Climate I O N change A L will SE C Uaff Rect ITY onE Europe heavily Europes natural environment and sections society and the C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT IQU ES E T SCU Rnearly I T all IN T E Rof N AT I O N ALE K L I M A T A P R M A I economy. A S U N S TA R P TAU T I S K D R O B A I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T
CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 4
T H R E AT S
Z M N A K L I M AT U A M E Z I N R O D N B E Z P E N O S T K L I M A N D R I N G E R O G D E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E E L C A M B I O C L I M T I C O Y L A S E G U R I D A D I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I I MAM U U T U S E D J A R A H V U S VA H E L I N E J U LG E O L E K I L M A S TO N M U U TO S J A K A N S A I N V L I N E N T U R VA L L I S U U S C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S KLIM T Aof P Rchange M A are I AS N S TA R P TAU T I S K D R O B A heA effects climate being felt U now: I L - B Itemperatures D L A Fare IL - K icecaps L I Mand A glaciers U Sare - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I rising, and extreme weather areG becoming K L Imelting M A AT VERA N D events ERIN E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D intense. The following Z M more I A Nfrequent Y K Land I Mmore AT U A B EZ PIECZEST WO MIDZYNARODOWE section outlines some of the forms of conflicts A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A driven S E SEGURANA INTERNACIONAL by climate change which may occur in different S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L regions the world. ZM E Nof A KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T Conflict over resources K L I Mi) AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T A LT ERA E S land, C L widespread I M T I shortage C A S of E SEGURANA INTERNACIONAL Reduction of arable K L Iwater, M Adiminishing AT V E R AN Dfish ER ING E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D food and stocks, increased are Gflooding H A J and L A prolonged T V L droughts TOZ S already S NEMZETKZI BIZTONSG in E many world. Climate C A happening MBIAM N Tparts I C of L Ithe M AT IC I E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE change will alter rainfall patterns and further reduce K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S freshwater by much K L available I M AT A P RasM A I as 20 A to S 30% U in N S TA R P TAU T I S K D R O B A certain regions. A drop in agricultural productivity ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS will to, or worsen, in least lead food-insecurity devel oped countries and an unsustainable increase in food C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y across the board. Water shortage in particular C Hprices A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E has the potential to cause civil unrest and to lead to K L significant I M A Teconomic A P losses, R Meven A I in robust A S econoU N S TA R P TAU T I S K D R O B A I L - mies. BID L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I The consequences will be even more intense Z M in IA N Yunder K Lstrong I M AT U A Bpressure. E Z P I The ECZEST WO MIDZYNARODOWE areas demographic A LT E R effect A E Sclimate C L change I M T I fuel CA S E SEGURANA INTERNACIONAL overall is that will existing SCH I M Bover R ILE C L I M AT I C E where I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L conflicts depleting resources, especially ZM EN LM Y A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS access to A thoseK resources is politicised. K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A Z M E ii) N Economic A K Ldamage MY M EDZINRODN BEZPENOS and A risk to coastal cities and critical infrastructure C L It I has Mbeen AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y estimated that a business as usual scenario P OinD N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T dealing with climate change could cost the world K L economy I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T up to 20% of global GDP per year, whereas
Photo : Henning Thing, Danish Polar Center
THREATS
T H R E AT S
Z M N A K L I M AT U A M E Z I N R O D N B E Z P E N O S T K L I M A N D R I N G E R O G D E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E E L C A M B I O C L I M T I C O Y L A S E G U R I D A D I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I I MAM U U T U S E D J A R A H V U S VA H E L I N E J U LG E O L E K I L M A S TO N M U U TO S J A K A N S A I N V L I N E N T U R VA L L I S U U S C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A Bthe EZ P of IE C Z Econcerted STW O can MI limited DZY A ROD OWE cost effective action be to N 1%. Coastal zones home about fifth worlds population, number A LT E R A E S C L I M T are I Cthe AS E ofS E Gone UR A of Nthe A IN T E R NaA C I Oset NAL rise years their supporting S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT to IC E in the I S E Cahead. U R IMega-cities, TAT E Awith IN TE R N AinfrastrucIONAL such facilities by the Z M E N A K L M Y A ture, ME Das Zport IN Rand O oil Drefineries, N are B often E Zlocated PE N sea OS or in river deltas. Sea-level rise and the increase in the frequency and P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T intensity natural pose a serious K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O Cof H I N disasters TERN AT I O Nthreat E L to L these S regions K E Rand HET their economic prospects. The East coasts of China and India as well as the A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L Caribbean region and Central America would be particularly affected. An K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D increase in disasters and humanitarian crises will lead to immense pres G H A J L A T V L T O Z sure Son the S NEMZETKZI BIZTONSG resources of donor countries, including capacities for emerC A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT ICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE gency relief operations. K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S K L I M ATA P R M A I A S Nof territory S TA R Pborder TAU TISK DROBA iii) U Loss and disputes ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS Scientists project major to the landmass this century. changes during Receding coastlines and submergence of large areas could result in loss C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R ITY of territory, including entire countries such as small island states. More C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E over land and maritime borders and other territorial rights are K L I M A T A P R M A I disputes A S U N S TA R P TAU T I S K D R O B A likely. There might be a need to revisit existing rules of international law, IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I particularly the Law of the Sea, as regards the resolution of territorial and Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A Bborder E Z Pdisputes. IECZ EST WO MIDZYNARODOWE A further dimension of competition for energy resources A LT E R A E S C L I M T lies I Cin A S E conflict S E Gover UR A N in A IN TER NA Cbecome IONAL potential resources Polar regions which will S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT exploitable I C E I asSaEconsequence C U R I TAT E A warming. I N T EDesertification R N A I Ocould NAL of global Z M E N A K L M Y A trigger MEa D Z I circle N O D N migration BE Zconflicts PE NterriOS vicious ofR degradation, and over K L I M A T A P R M A I tory A SandU N Sthat TA R P Tthe A political UTIS K ofD RO BA borders threatens stability countries and Z M E N A K L M Y A regions. MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T
CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 6
T H R E AT S
Environmentally-induced migration Z M iv) NA K L I M AT U A M E Z I N R O D N B E Z P E N O S T K L IThose M Aparts N DR I N G Ethat R already O G suffer D E from N Ipoor NT E R condiN AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D of the populations health tions, or exclusion are rendered more to unemployment social vulnerable the effects which amplify trigger CLI M A T of E climate C Hchange, ANG E could AN D Ior N T E migration R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y within and countries. predicts that there willS be CHA NG E between MENT S C LThe I MUN AT IQU ES ET millions C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E of environmental migrants by 2020 with climate change as one E L C A M B I O C L I M T I C O Y L A S E G U of R the IDAD INTERNACIONAL major drivers of this phenomenon. Some countries that are extremely K L I I MAM U U T U S E D J A R A H V U S VA H E L I N E J U LG E O L E K vulnerable to N climate change areS already ILM ASTO MU UTO J A calling K A for N international S A I N V recog L I N E N T U R VA L L I S U U S nition of such environmentally-induced migration. Such migration C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C may U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E increase conflicts in transit and destination areas. Europe must expect G substantially H A J L increased AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G migratory pressure. C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E KLIM ATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S v) Situations of fragility and radicalization K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A Climate change may increase weak or T failing IL-B IDL A F I Lsignificantly -KLIM A Uinstability S - S in IG UR INTERNAZZJONALI states by over-stretching the already limited capacity of governments to I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT to AT the challenges they face. inability ofS a governZ M Irespond A N Yeffectively KLIM U A B EZ P IThe EC ZE T WO MIDZYNARODOWE ment to meet the needs of its population as a whole or to provide A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U protecRANA INTERNACIONAL tion in the face of climate change-induced hardship could trigger frustraS C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L lead to tensions between different ethnic and religious groups within Z Mtion, E N A KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS countries and to political radicalisation. This could destabilise countries P O and DN E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T even entire regions. K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T
7 CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
T H R E AT S
over supply vi) Tension energy Z M N A One K LofIthe Mmost AT U A potential M E conflicts Z I N over R ODN from BE Z P Ecompetition NOST significant resources arises intensified K L I M A N over DR ING Rcontrol O Gover, D energy EN I NTER Nin AT IO NA Lcontinue E SIK KE RHED access to, E and resources. That itself is, and will to be, a cause of However, much of the reserves are in regions vulne instability. because worlds hydrocarbon of climate change and many oil gas A producing states already C L I M A T Erable C to Hthe A impacts NGE AND IN Tbecause ERN AT I and ON L SE CU RITY significant social and instability isE likely to increase. This C H A N G E Mface EN TS CL I M economic AT I Q U Edemographic S E T S challenges, CURIT INT RN AT ION ALE has the potential to feed back into greater energy insecurity and greater competition for resources. E L C A M B I O C L I M T I C O Y L A S E G U R I D A D I N T E R N A C I O N A L possible wider use of nuclear for V power generation raise concerns about proK L I I M A MA U UTU SE D J A energy RAH US V A H might ELI N new E J ULG EO LEK liferation, in the context of a non-proliferation regime that is already under pressure. As previously I L M A S TO N M U U TO S J A K A N S A I N V L I N E N T U R VA L L I S U U S regions open up due to the effects of climate change, the scramble for resources will C H A N G E Minaccessible ENTS C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E intensify. G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G C A M B I A M E Nvii) T IPressure C L I on Minternational AT I C I E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE governance K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S system at risk the international community toI address the threats K L I M A T A The Pmultilateral RMA I isA S ifU N S TA R P T A fails UT SK D R outlined OBA Climate impacts of resentment responI L - B I D L A above. FIL - K Lchange IMA U will S -fuel S Ithe Gpolitics URT I N T between E R N those A Z most ZJO NALI sible for climate change and those most affected by it. Impacts of climate mitigation policies (orE I D K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H thus tension nationally The potential Z M I A N Y K policy L I Mfailures) AT UwillA Bdrive E Zpolitical PIEC ZE S T Wand O internationally. MIDZY N A R Orift Dnot OWE only divides North and South but there will also be a South South dimension particularly as the A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L share of global emissions rises. The already burdened international security S C H I M B RChinese I L E and C LIndian I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L architecture will be put under increasing pressure. ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A IL-B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I Reference: World in Transition Climate Z M I Change AN Y KL I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E as a Security Risk, Advisory Council on C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L A LT German ERA ES Global Change, Springer Verlag, S C HBerlin, IM B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L 2007. ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS constellations in selected hotspots K L I Conflict M AT A P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TAU T I S K D R O B A Climate degradation decline food ZMENA K induced LM Y A of M E D ZClimate I N induced RO D in N B E Z P Hotspot ENOS freshwater resources production C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D IEnvironmentally NTERN AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y Climate induced increase in storm induced migration P O D N Eand B flood NE S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T disasters K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T
CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 8
GEOGRAPHICAL EXAMPLES
Z M N A K L I M AT U A M E Z I N R O D N B E Z P E N O S T K L I M A N D R I N G E R O G D E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E E L C A M B I O C L I M T I C O Y L A S E G U R I D A D I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I I MAM U U T U S E D J A R A H V U S VA H E L I N E J U LG E O L E K I L M A S TO N M U U TO S J A K A N S A I N V L I N E N T U R VA L L I S U U S C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E K L In M ATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S many regions, climate change is fuelling one or more of the threats identified above. The following sections K L I illustrate M A Thow A climate P R MA A S existing U N pressures S T A in R various P TA UTI S K the world. D RSince O the BA change is I multiplying regions around I L - EUs B Ineighbours D L A include FILK LofIthe Mmost A vulnerable U S-S IGU R T change, INT ENorth RN AZ Z the JO NALI some regions to climate e.g. Africa and Middle K L IEast, MA AT Vpressure E R A at Nthe DE R I N Unions G EN I Nand TE R N AT ION Aconfl L EictsV EIL IGH migratory European borders political instability and could increase inE I D Z M the I Afuture. N Y This KL IM AT Ua A Bcant EZ P I Eon CEuropes Z E energy STW O M IDZYNARODOWE could also have signifi impact supply routes. A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N TIONELL SKERHET 1.A Africa A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D Africa is one most to climate G H A J L AT V LT OZ of S thecontinents S NE Mvulnerable ZETK ZI BIZTONSG change because of multiple stresses and low adapC A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E K L I M A T O K A I T A tive I Rcapacity. T A In R North P T Africa A U and T Ithe N Sahel, IS SAUGUMAS increasing drought, water scarcity and land K L I M A T A P R M A I overuse A S will UN S TA R P TAU T I S K D R O B A degrade soils and could lead to a Z M E N A K L M Y A lossM EDZINRODN BEZPENOS of 75% of arable, rain-fed land. The Nile Delta both rise salinisa could be at risk from sea-level and C L I M AT E C H A N G Ein agricultural A N D areas I Nwhile T E12 R AofT I Oland NAL SECURITY tion toN 15% arable C H A N G E M E N T S C L Icould M AT QU ES E T S rise CU Rthis I T century I N T E R N AT I O N A L E be Ilost through sea-level in K L I M ATA P R M A I A S people U N affS TA PT A U today, TISK DROBA with 5 million ected by R 2050. Already climate impact ict IL-BIDLA FIL-KL I Mchange A Uis having S - Sa Imajor GU R T on the I confl NT EinR N A Z Z J O N A L I and around Darfur. In the Horn of Africa reduced rainfall and Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E temperatures a signifi negative impact A LT E R A E S Cincreasing L I M T I C A S will E have SE G Ucant RA NA INTERNACIONAL on a region highly vulnerable to conflict. In southern Africa, droughts are contributing to SCH I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L poor harvests, leading to food insecurity in several areas with millions of people expected ZM ENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS to face food shortages. Migration in this region, but also migration from other regions K Lthrough IMA TA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TAU T I S K D R O B A Northern Africa to reach Europe (transit migration) is likely to intensify. In Africa, ZM Eelsewhere, NA K L change M Y is expected A Mto Ehave Da Znegative IN D N in partiBEZPENOS and climate effR ect O on health, due spread of further aggravating tensions. cular to the vector-borne diseases C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T
GEOGRAPHICAL EXAMPLES
GEOGRAPHICAL EXAMPLES
2. Middle East Z M N A K L I M AT U A M E Z I N R O D N B E Z P E N O S T K L I M A N D R I N G E R O G D E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D in the East are Water systems Middle already under intense stress. Roughly two-thirds of the Arab C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y world depends on sources outside their borders for CHANGEMENT S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E water. The Jordan and Yarmuk rivers are expected E L C A M B I O C to L see IM T I C O Y LA S EflG U R IDAD INTERNACIONAL considerable reduction in their ows aff ecting K L I I M A M U U Israel, TUS E Palestinian D J A territories R A H and VU S VA HELINE JULGEOLEK the Jordan. Existing ILMASTONMU UTO S access J A toK AN Salmost AIN V to LI N E N T U R VA L L I S U U S tensions over water are certain intenCHANGEMENT S in C this LIM ATleading IQUE E T political SCU R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E sify region toS further instability detrimental implications Europes security G H A J L A T Vwith L TOZ S S forN E M energy ZET KZI BIZTONSG and Israel might by 60% CAMBIAMENT I other C L Iinterests. M AT Water I C I supply E S in IC UR E Z fall ZA INTERNAZIONALE over this century. Consequently, a signifi cant drop in crop yields K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S projected arid K L I M A T A P isR M A Ifor an Aarea S that U is Nalready S Tlargely ARP Tor Asemi-arid. UTISK DROBA Significant decreases are expected to hit Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Saudi IL-BIDLA FIL - K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I Arabia and thus affect stability in a vitally strategic region for Europe. K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T South A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A 3. IN T E R NAsia ACIONAL K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S NEMZETKZI BIZTONSG Sea-level rise may threaten the habitat of millions of people as 40% of C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C Asias I E population SICUR EZZA INTERNAZIONALE (almost 2 billion) lives within 60km from the K L I MATO K A I TA I R T ARP TA UT I loss NI SAU GUMAS coastline. Water stress and of S agricultural productivity K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U SitTdi Acult RP A to U feed T I its S growing K D ROBA willN make forT Asia population Z M E N A K L M Y A M E Dwho Z Iwill N additionally ROD B E increase Z P Eof infecNOS be N exposed to an tious diseases. Changes in rains and the monsoon decrease the will more than C L I M A T E C H A N G E A N D ofI melt N Twater E Rfrom NA THimalayas IONA Laffect SE CU RITY billion icts over remaining C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S 1 C U Rpeople. I T IConfl NT ER N AT IONALE resources and unmanaged migration will K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O BA lead to instability in a region that is an I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I important economic partner of Europe with Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E factors S TW O MIDZYNARODOWE of production and distribution concenA LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G URANA INTERNACIONAL trated along vulnerable coastlines. S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T
CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 10
GEOGRAPHICAL EXAMPLES
4. Central Asia Z M N A K L I M AT U A M E Z I N R O D N B E Z P E N O S T K L I M A N D R I N G E R O G D E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D is severely Central Asia another region An C L I Maffected A T E by C climate H A Nchange. GE A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y increasing shortage of water, which C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E both key C resource agriculture E L C AisM B IaO L I Mfor T ICO Y LA SEGURIDAD INTERNACIONAL and a strategic resource for electricity KLIIM AM U U T U S E D J A R A H V U S VA H E L I N E J U LG E O L E K generation, is already noticeable. The I L M A glaciers S T Oin N M U U TO S J A K A N S A I N V L I N E N T U R VA L L I S U U S Tajikistan lost a third of their area CHAN G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E in the second half of the 20th century alone, GHA JL A T Vhas lost LT O aZ glaciers S in S NEMZETKZI BIZTONSG while Kyrgyzstan over 1000 C A M Bthe IA M EN TI C LIM AT ICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE last four decades. There is thus considerable KLIM ATO KA T ict A in aIregion R T AR PTA UT I economic NIS SAUGUMAS additional potential for I confl whose strategic, political and as well as A increasing challenges impact K L I Mdevelopments ATA P RM I A trans-regional S UN S TA R P T Adirectly U T Ior SK DROBA indirectly on EU interests. I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L America the Caribbean Z M E N A K L5. Latin MY A M E D and ZIN R ODN BEZPENOS P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T KLIMA T F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T In drier areas of Latin America climate change will lead to salinisation and desertiA LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L fication of agricultural land and to decreasing productivity of important crops K L I M A AT V E R Aand ND E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D livestock. This will have adverse consequences for food G H A J L A T V security. L T O Sea-level Z S rise is Sprojected NEM ZET KZ I BIZTONSG to cause increased risk CAMBIAMENTI CL M AT in IC I E Sareas. ICU R E Zin Zsea A surface INTERNAZIONALE ofI fl ooding low-lying Increases K L I MATO K A I TA IR T AtoR P Tchange A U are T projected INIS temperature due climate to S A U G U M A S have ects cause K L I M ATA P R M A I A S adverse U N effS T on A coral R Preefs, T Aand UT ISK DROBA shifts in the location of fi sh stocks. Latin ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS Caribbean American and countries are already subject to the detrimental eff ects, C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y many extreme events, associated C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M ATwith Iincluding QU E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E the El Nio cycle. Changes in rainfall K L I M A T A P R M A I patterns AS U N S TA R P TAU T I S K D R O B A and the disappearance of glaciers are I L - B I D L A F I L - K L I Mprojected A U to S signifi - S Icantly G Uaff R Twater I availability NTERNAZZJONALI ect Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A E Z Pconsumption, I E C Z E agriculture STWO Menergy IDZYNARODOWE for B human and A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C for A example S E S GAndes URA N Countries A INTERNACIONAL generation, inE the region. SCHIMBRILE CLIM ICE I S the EC UR TAT E Aalready I N T E R N A I O N A L in AT the Caribbean and Gulf ofIMexico are ected Z M E N A K L M Y increasingly A M Eaff D Z Iby Nmajor Rhurricanes. O D NThis will BEZPENOS be further exacerbated by climate change and result K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A political a region often Z M E N A K L M in Y social A and M E D tensions Z I Nin R O with DN weak BEZPENOS governance structures. C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T
11 CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
GEOGRAPHICAL EXAMPLES
Cape Morris Jesup, Greenland Kurt H. Kjr, RINK project, University of Copenhagen
Arctic 6. The Z M N A K L I M AT U A M E Z I N R O D N B E Z P E N O S T K L I M A N D R I N G E R O G D E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D melting of the polar The rapid ice caps, in particular, the Arctic, is opening up new waterways and international trade routes. In addition, the increased accessibility of the C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y enormous hydrocarbon resources in the Arctic region is changing the geo-strategic C H A N G E M E N Tdynamics S C L Iof M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E the region with potential consequences for international stability and EuroEL CAMBIO CL I M T I C O Y L A S E G U R I D A D I N T E R N A C I O N A L pean security interests. The resulting new strategic interests are illustrated by the recent KLIIMAMUUT U S of E the D Russian J A flag R under A H the VU SV AThere H EisL N E J need U Lto G EOLEK planting North Pole. anIincreasing address ILMASTONMU Ugrowing T O Sdebate J A over KA N S Aclaims INV access L I Nto Enew N trade T U routes R VA Lerent ISUUS the territorial and byL diff C H A N G E M E N Tcountries S C L Iwhich M AT IQUE S ET S to Ceff Uectively RIT INT RN AT IONALE challenge Europes ability secure its E trade and resource the on its partners. G H A J L A T V interests L T in O Zregion Sand may S put Npressure EMZ E relations T K with Z IkeyB IZTONSG C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T
Z M N A K L I M AT U A M E Z I N R O D N B E Z P E N O S T K L I M A N D R I N G E R O G D E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E E L C A M B I O C L I M T I C O Y L A S E G U R I D A D I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I I MAM U U T U S E D J A R A H V U S VA H E L I N E J U LG E O L E K I L M A S TO N M U U TO S J A K A N S A I N V L I N E N T U R VA L L I S U U S C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A IL-BI D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I he impact of climate change on international security is not a problem of the future but already of K L I Mtoday A AT V ER AN D ER IN EifN INT ERN I Othe N emissions ALE V ILIGHEID and one which will stay with us.G Even progress is made in AT reducing of E greenZ M house IAN Y K L I Mpatterns AT Uhave A already BEZ PIEC Z E temperatures STWO M ID ZY NA RODOWE gases, weather changed, global have already risen and, above A LT Eclimate RA E is Salready CLI M T I C Athe S globe. E SEGURANA INTERNACIONAL all, change being felt around S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L The role K of the EU in the climate change is vital and must The ZM E active NA L M Y international A ME DZ I N negotiations ROD N B Econtinue. ZPE NOS EU has demonstrated leadership both in international negotiations, in particular by advocating the 2C P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T and far-reaching decisions domestic energy the K L target, IMA T with F its R NDR I N GonO C H climate I N Tand ER N Apolicies. T I O Yet, NE LEU Lcannot S act KERHET alone. In a changing international political landscape, major emitters and emerging economies will also A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L to be engaged and commit to an ambitious global climate agreement under the UN framework. K L Ihave MA AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D GIn H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G the EUs response, special consideration needs to be given to the US, China and India and what the C A implications MBIAM EN Tthe I EUs C Llong I Mterm ATrelations ICI E SRussia. ICU R recommendations EZZA INT E R should NAZ IONALE mean for with The below be K Lcomplemented I MATO KA ITA I R up T by A coherent R P TEU Aaction UT IN I S at addressing SAUG by further studies and followed plans, aiming the U M A S K L different I M A dimensions TA P A I required A S to Uaddress N Sthe T impact ARP A Uchange T I Son Kinternational DROBA of R theM responses of T climate ZM E N in A K L M and Y effective A M E D The Z Iupcoming N Rexamination O D N of the implementation B E Z P E of NOS security a comprehensive manner. the appropriate tocomplement it, should take account European Security Strategy, and as proposals of the security dimension of climate change. C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E K L Enhancing I M A T capacities A P at Rthe MEU Alevel I A S U N S TA R P TAU T I S K D R O B A I L -A B ID Lto A FIL -impact K L Iof M A change U S on -S I G U R security T I N Tbe E to Rbuild NA ZJONALI first step address the climate international should upZ knowland own followed anE improvement in the prevention of, N and Z M edge IAN Y assess K L the I MEUs AT U capacities, A BEZ P I E by CZ STWO M IDZY ApreRODOWE paredness for early responses to, disasters and conflicts. Financial implications for such responses should A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L beIidentified considered in the SCH M B and R I also L EbeC L I M AT I CEUs E budget I S review. E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T
could be developed include: Possible actions that capacities for research, warning Z M N A Intensify K L IEU M AT U A Manalysis, E Z Imonitoring N R and O early DN Band E Watch Z P Lists E including NOST the Institute for Security Studies, the EU Satellite Centre (EUSC), the EU Joint Situation Centre (SITCEN), K L I M A N D R I N G E R O G D E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D the EU Network of Energy (NESCO), Correspondents the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security and Joint Research Centres. Monitoring and early warning needs to include in particular C L I M A T situations E C HofA N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y state fragility and political radicalisation, tensions over resources and energy supplies, CHANGEM E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E environmental and socio-economic stresses, threats to critical infrastructures and economic assets, E L C A M B border IO C L I M T I C O Y L A S E G U R I D A D I N T E R N A C I O N A L disputes, impact on human rights and potential migratory movements. K L I I MAM U U T U S E D J A R A H V U S VA H E L I N E J U LG E O L E K ILMAST N Mbuild U Uup T EU O and S J A K State A Nplanning SAIN Vcapabilities LINE N TU Rprotection V A L Land I S the UUS O Further Member and including civil CHANGEM Eof N T Smanagement C L I M AT I disaster Q U E response S E T instruments S C U R(civil IT NTER AT I Oto N ALE use crisis and andImilitary) toN contribute the the risks byS climate G H A J L response A T Vto Lsecurity TOZ posed S N change. EMZETKZI BIZTONSG C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E T Commission further in more implications KLIMA O KA I T work A to I look, R region-by-region, TARPTA U Tdetail I NatIwhat S the S security AUG UMAS are likely to be and how they will affect EU interests. K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A IL-BIDL A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I EU multilateral leadership to promote global climate security K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D Climate is a U key element international will be increasingly so inN the coming years, ZMIANY K L change I M AT A B Eof Z P I E C Zrelations E S and TW O MIDZ Y A ROD OWE including dimension. If A recognised, can aA positive for improving and A LT E R A E its S security CLIM T I C S E SitE Geven U Rbecome AN I N driver TER N ACIO NAL reforming global governance. As it is a global problem, the EU is advocating a multilateral response. S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L successful Bali conference in Dec 2007 to continue and strengthen Z M E N Building A K on L the M Y A MEDZ IN the R EU Oneeds DN BE Z P E its NleadOS ership towards an ambitious post-2012 agreement in 2009, including both mitigation and adaptation PODNE B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T action by all countries as a key contribution to addressing climate security. K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T A LT E R A E S Cthat L I could M T I C A S include: E SEGURANA INTERNACIONAL Possible actions be developed K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D L Focus theZ security the arena; in N particGHAJ A T attention V L on TO S risks related S N to E climate M Z change E T Kin Zmultilateral I BIZ TO SG ular within the UN Security Council, the G8 as well as the UN specialised bodies (among others by CAMBIAM E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E addressing a possible need to strengthen certain rules of international law, including the Law of K L I M A Tthe O K AITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS Sea). K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T
CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 14
international cooperation on the detection and of the Enhance monitoring security threats related to climate change, and on prevention, preparedness, mitigation and response capacities. Promote Z M N A K L I M AT U A M E Z I N R O D N B E Z P E N O S T the development of regional security scenarios for different levels of climate change and their impliKLIM A N D R I N G E R O G D E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D cations for international security. C L I M AT E CHANGE A N D migratory INTE RN Tfurther ION AL SE Consider environmentally-triggered additional stress in A the development of C a U R I T Y CHAN GEMEN T S Cmigration L I M AT I Q in Uliaison E S with E T all Srelevant C Uinternational RIT IN T E R N AT I O N A L E comprehensive European policy, bodies. E L C A M B I O C L I M T I C O Y L A S E G U R I D A D I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L Cooperation I I M A Mwith UU T countries U S E D J A R A H V U S VA H E L I N E J U LG E O L E K third ILM A S TO N M U U TO S J A K A N S A I N V L I N E N T U R VA L L I S U U S Climate change calls for revisiting and reinforcing EU cooperation and political dialogue instruments, C Hgiving ANG E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E more attention to the impact of climate change on security. This could lead to greater prioritisa Gtion H and A Jenhanced L A T support V Lfor T climate OZ S S N and EM ZETK governance, Z I B I natural ZTONSG change mitigation adaptation, good C A resource MBIA M E N Ttechnology I CLIM AT Itrans-boundary CI E SIC UREZZ A I N T(inter E Ralia N water AZIONALE management, transfer, environmental cooperation K Land IM Ainstitutional T O Kstrengthening A I T A and I capacity R T building ARP T A management. UTINIS SAUGUMAS land), for crisis K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A beL developed I L - Possible B I D actions L A that F Icould L-K I M A include: U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I K L I MFurther A ATintegrate VERA N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D adaptation and resilience to climate change into EU regional strategies (for Z M I Aexample NY K L I M AT U A European B E Z PNeighbourhood IECZES T WEU-Africa O M I Strategy, DZY NARODOWE Northern Dimension, Policy, Barcelona A LT EProcess, R A Black E Sea S C LIM T I C A SStrategy, E SE G U East R Aaction N plan). A IN T E attention RNACIONAL Synergy, EU-Central Asia Middle Special S C H I should MB ILE C most LIM AT I Cregions E I and SE CUR I TAT E A hot IN T E The RN A I O N A L beR given to the vulnerable potential climate security spots. Global between should be N O S Z M EClimate N A Change K LAlliance MY A the MEU Eand Dthe Z most I Nvulnerable R O developing D N countries BEZ PE built upon. P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T EDevelop Arctic policy evolving of N the Arctic region, taking A LT R A an EU ES CL I Mbased T Ion Cthe AS E Sgeo-strategy EGURA A I NTE R Ninto ACIONAL account i.a. access to resources and the opening of new trade routes. K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D G HExamine A J L the AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G security implications of climate change in dialogue with third countries including C A M through BIAM N T Iof analyses. C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E theE sharing K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T
15 CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Z M N A K L I M AT U A M E Z I N R O D N B E Z P E N O S T K L I M A N D R I N G E R O G D E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E S I K K E R H E D C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E E L C A M B I O C L I M T I C O Y L A S E G U R I D A D I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I I MAM U U T U S E D J A R A H V U S VA H E L I N E J U LG E O L E K I L M A S TO N M U U TO S J A K A N S A I N V L I N E N T U R VA L L I S U U S C H A N G E M E N T S C L I M AT I Q U E S E T S C U R I T I N T E R N AT I O N A L E G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A I L- B I D L A F I L- K L I M A U S - S I G U R T I N T E R N A Z Z J O N A L I K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D Z M I A N Y K L I M AT U A B E Z P I E C Z E S T W O M I D Z Y N A R O D O W E A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L S C H I M B R I L E C L I M AT I C E I S E C U R I TAT E A I N T E R N A I O N A L ZMENA KLMY A MEDZINRODN BEZPENOS P O D N E B N E S P R E M E M B E I N M E D N A R O D N A VA R N O S T K L I M AT F R N D R I N G O C H I N T E R N AT I O N E L L S K E R H E T A LT E R A E S C L I M T I C A S E S E G U R A N A I N T E R N A C I O N A L K L I M A AT V E R A N D E R I N G E N I N T E R N AT I O N A L E V E I L I G H E I D G H A J L AT V LT O Z S S N E M Z E T K Z I B I Z T O N S G C A M B I A M E N T I C L I M AT I C I E S I C U R E Z Z A I N T E R N A Z I O N A L E K L I MATO K A I TA I R TA R P TAU T I N I S S AU G U MA S K L I M ATA P R M A I A S U N S TA R P TA U T I S K D R O B A
QC-81-08-248-EN-C
www.europa.eu
10.2860/50106