STAT273

Illicit Drugs vs. Ufo Sightings

May 2

2013
Prepared for Colleen L. Ianuzzi

By using statistical inferences to examine the possibility that E.T. is all in the head, specifically in the heads of illicit drug users, this report shows that there is no correlation between UFO sightings and illicit drug use.

By John R. McAllister Jr.

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Contents
Cover/Abstract ............................................................................................................................... i Contents ......................................................................................................................................... ii Introduction ....................................................................................................................................1 The Data ..........................................................................................................................................1 Observations of the Data ...............................................................................................................2 Methodology ...................................................................................................................................3 The Results .....................................................................................................................................3 An Unfortunate Conclusion ..........................................................................................................4 Further Investigation .....................................................................................................................4 Works Cited: Data .........................................................................................................................5

Introduction
Life on other worlds. Is it possible? Humankind has often gazed out upon the innumerous fiery balls of gas and wondered: is E.T. out there? Some say it is all in your head. You are seeing things. Maybe it really is all in your head, or maybe you should lay off the drugs! This report seeks to find a correlation between illicit drug use and UFO sightings by state.

The Data
First we need some data. The two tables below supply it. Table 1 shows the percent of the population that have used illicit drugs in the past month (at the time of the survey) and were aged 12 or older. This data was obtained from the U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services at the Office of Applied Studies in a report entitled, State Estimates of Substance Use from the 20072008. While Table 2 lists UFO sightings by state and was obtained from The National UFO Reporting Center Online Database. Websites are provided in the works cited page. Table 1
State Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri % 6.6 12 8.9 7.8 9 11.1 8.8 8.7 8.7 7.5 8.9 7.2 7.5 8.1 6.5 6.7 8.3 8.1 9.3 7.6 9.3 9.1 7.6 6.6 9.2 State Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming % 10.6 7.7 10.3 11.2 7 10 8.9 7.9 7.2 8 8.6 10.8 7.5 11 7.2 7.2 6.7 7 6.3 11 7.7 10 6.6 7.5 7.5 State Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri

Table 2
# 636 321 2602 665 9495 1466 897 181 3854 1274 314 485 2689 1353 672 636 876 572 593 830 1252 2034 1019 413 1582 State Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming # 505 413 911 490 1431 790 3211 1758 140 2214 736 1772 2413 272 979 204 1150 3758 681 265 1267 4244 464 1217 207

Observations of the Data

Using my TI-nspire, I obtained quick normal probability plots. Figure 1 shows the information in Table 1, while Figure 2 shows information in Table 2.

Figure 1 - % Illicit Drug Use

Figure 2 - # of UFO Sightings

Immediately it is noticeable that there is an outlier, California, which may be due to unreported drug use on epic scalesor it may be a recording error. Who knows, we will get rid of it because it is mucking up the data. Figures 3 and 4 are the same but with California (the outlier) removed.

Figure 3 - % Illicit Drug Use (No Outlier)

Figure 4 - # of UFO Sightings (No Outlier)

When the outlier is removed, it is easier to see that there may indeed be a correlation. That is to say, the shapes of the two are similar (somewhat helical). Since they are roughly linear and appear to be roughly normally distributed, various testing may possibly be used.

Methodology
Based on previous observations, I decided to check correlation by using the linear correlation coefficient (LCC from here on) which is defined as:

However, I used the equivalent computing formula: [ ][ ]

Otherwise known as:

Since we have removed the outlier, it is relatively safe to find the LCC.

The Results
Returning to the computing formula for the LCC, and substituting for the variables, I found:

][ or

Which suggests that there is a positively linear correlation. Albeit a weak one.

An Unfortunate Conclusion
A strong correlation exists when r is greater than 0.8, and when r is less than 0.5 it is generally considered a weak correlation. In this case, r is less than 0.5 even when rounding up to 0.3which suggests there is not much of a correlation. Furthermore, even when reducing the possible outlier we obtained a weak correlation. It seems that we cannot reasonably blame the UFO sightings on inward space trips. That seems to make sense I guess: Roswell only happened in the 1940stwo decades before the drug movement.

Further Investigation
Upon further investigation I decided to make a scatterplot of in Figure 5: which is shown

Figure 5 - Scatterplot of

The above figure is yet further proof that there is a very weak correlation between illicit drugs and ufo sightings. Though most of the data points lie inside of quadrants I and III, the data points do not fall upon a line. Another thing which may be useful to examine would be the specific drug use (maybe hallucinogens?) and UFO sightings.

Works Cited: Data

Office of Applied Studies. "State Estimates from the 2007-2008 NSDUH, SAMHSA OAS." Table of Contents, State Estimates from the 2007-2008 NSDUH, SAMHSA OAS. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, n.d. Web. 02 May 2013. <http://oas.samhsa.gov/2k8state/toc.cfm>.
National UFO Reporting Center. "National UFO Reporting Center Report Index by State / Province." National UFO Reporting Center Web Reports. NUFORC, n.d. Web. 02 May 2013. <http://www.nuforc.org/webreports.html>.