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K YU HI NGH KHOA HC V CNG NGH LN TH 12

HCMUT 26-28/10/2011

TCH HP GIS V AHP M TRONG NH GI THCH NGHI T AI


L CNH NH(*), TRN TRNG C(**)
(**)

Phn vin Quy hoch v Thit k Nng nghip, Trng i hc Bch khoa - i hc Quc gia Tp. H Ch Minh

(*)

1. M U nh gi thch nghi t ai (LE) c vai tr v cng quan trng, n cung cp thng tin h tr cho b tr s dng t. LE thng nh gi tng hp c iu kin t nhin, kinh t, x hi v mi trng (gi l nh gi t ai bn vng). Do vy, nh gi t ai bn vng l bi ton nh gi, phn tch quyt nh a tiu chun (MCDA). MCDA (i khi gi l ra quyt nh a tiu chun -MCDM) l k thut phn tch t hp cc tiu chun, cung cp cho ngi ra quyt nh mc quan trng (trng s) cc tiu chun (Zopounidis v Pardalos, 2010). Trong , hu ht cc nghin cu u s dng phng php phn tch th bc (AHP) ca Saaty (1980) xc nh trng s cc tiu chun (Lu et al., 2007). Trong lnh vc nh gi thch nghi t ai, c nhiu nghin cu ng dng AHP tnh trng s cc yu t t ai (L Cnh nh, 2005; Thapa v Murayama, 2008; Chen, Yu v Khan, 2010). Trong , ngi nh gi s dng cc s chnh xc aij = 1/aji [1/9,1] [1,9] so snh mc quan trng ca tng cp yu t (i, j). Tuy nhin, do s m h v khng chc chn ca ngi nh gi, nn kt qu nh gi cha v cha chnh xc ra quyt nh (Chen et al., 2011). khc phc hn ch ca AHP gc trong mi trng r (original crisp AHP), nghin cu ny xut mt gii php kt hp hai k thut AHP v logic m (gi l AHP m, vit tt: FAHP) trong so snh cp, cho php m t chnh xc hn trong qu trnh ra quyt nh. Cng ngh GIS th hin kh nng mnh m trong phn tch khng gian, FAHP c s dng rng ri trong phn tch a thuc tnh (Chen et al., 2011), kh nng hip lc gia hai lnh vc GIS v FAHP to ra cng c cc k hu ch trong phn tch ra quyt nh a tiu chun khng gian (spatial MCDA/MCDM) nh nh gi kh nng thch nghi t ai. 2. C S L THUYT V XY DNG M HNH NH GI T AI 2.1. AHP m (fuzzy AHP- FAHP) (1). La chn phng php FAHP: Theo Kahraman (2008), hin nay c cc phng php FAHP c bn thu ht nhiu nh nghin cu: Phng php ca V. Laarhoven, Pedrycz (1983) v Buckley (1985) c yu cu tnh ton rt ln ngay c i vi vn rt nh; Phng php Cheng (1996) da trn c hai phng php tnh xc sut (probability) v kh nng (possibility) nn rt kh xc nh; Phng php Chang (1992): yu cu tnh ton tng i thp v trnh t thc hin

(2). Bin ngn ng v gi tr m ca bin ngn ng trong so snh cp: Theo Srdjevic v Medeiros (2008); Onut, Efendigil v Kara (2010), mi quan h gia cc bin ngn ng m t mc quan trng gia 2 tiu chun (gi tr so snh r, Saaty(1980)) vi gi tr m ca bin ngn ng (cc s m tam gic) trong so snh cp th hin nh bng 1. Bng 1: Bin ngn ng v gi tr m ca bin ngn ng trong so snh cp Gi tr so Bin ngn ng m t mc quan S m Nghch o snh r trng (gia 2 tiu chun) tam gic s m tam gic (Saaty,1980) (l, m, u) (1/u, 1/m, 1/l) Ch bng nhau (just equal) (1, 1, 1) (1, 1, 1) Quan trng bng nhau 1 (1, 1, 2) (1/2, 1, 1) (equal importance) Quan trng yu 3 (2, 3, 4) (1/4, 1/3, 1/2) (weak importance) Quan trng mnh 5 (4, 5, 6) (1/6, 1/5, 1/4) (essential or strong importance) Quan trng rt mnh 7 (6, 7, 8) (1/8, 1/7, 1/6) (very strong importance) V cng quan trng 9 (8, 9, 9) (1/9, 1/9, 1/8) (extremely preferred) Mc trung gian gia cc mc nu (x-1, x, x+1); (1/(x+1), 1/x, 1/(x-1)); 2,4,6,8 trn x=2,4,6,8. x=2,4,6,8.
Ngun: Srdjevic v Medeiros (2008); Onut, Efendigil v Kara (2010).

(3). Phng php FAHP ca Chang (1992, 1996): Cc bc phn tch mc nh hng c xut bi Chang (1992, 1996) v chi tit bi Kahraman (2008) gm 4 bc nh sau: Gi s [aij ] = (lij , mij , uij ) l ma trn so snh m ca cc yu t; Vi lijk mijk uijk v lij, mij, uij [1/9,1] [1,9]. Bc 1: Tng hp mc nh hng m ca i tng i:
~

n m j Si = M M gi j =1 i =1 j =1
m j gi

(1)

Trong :

M
j =1
m m

j gi

= ( l j , m j , u j ) ;
j =1 j =1 j =1
j gi

(2) (3)

M
j =1 j =1

= ( li , mi , ui ) ;
i =1 i =1 i =1

Nghch o s m (3):

1 m m j 1 M gi = n , j =1 j =1 ui i =1

1 1 , n n m i li i =1 i =1

(4)

Bc 2: So snh cp s m M2 (l2,m2,u2) M1 (l1,m1,u1) c xc nh nh sau:

V ( M 2 M 1 ) = sup[min( M 1 ( x), M 2 ( y ))]


y x

(5)

1, if m2 m1 0, if l u 1 2 V ( M 2 M 1 ) = hgt ( M 1 M 2 ) = M 2 (d ) = else : l1 u2 , ( ) ( ) m u m l 2 1 1 2
m M1 v M2 th so snh c V(M2 M1) v V(M2 M1). Bc 3: So snh s m M vi k s m khc V(M M1, M2, , Mk) = V[(M M1) and (M M2) andand (M Mk)] = minV(M Mi), vi i=1,2,, k; t d(Ai)= minV(Si Sk), vi i=1,..., n; k=1,2,, n; k i; [W] = [d(A1), d(A2),, d(An)]T, Bc 4: Chun ho vector [W] c vector trng s [W] cn tm, [W]= [d(A1), d(A2),, d(An)]T, [W] l s r (nonfuzzy number). 2.2. M hnh GIS v FAHP trong nh gi t ai

(6)

Trong d l cao ca cc hm thuc M 1 , M 2 ca hai s m M1 v M2. Khi so snh hai s

nh gi thch nghi t ai phc v cho qun l s dng t bn vng (gi tt l nh gi t ai bn vng - ESLM) gm cc bc sau (hnh 1): nh gi thch nghi t ai t nhin Kt qu thch nghi t ai t nhin Xc nh trng s cc yu t theo m hnh FAHP Bn thch nghi t nhin. Xc nh cc yu t bn vng

nh gi bn vng. C

Khng

Kt thc

nh gia nh hng cc LUS v mt x hi (Xi)

nh gia hiu qu kinh t ca cc LUS (Xi)

nh gi nh hng cc LUS v mt mi trng (Xi)

trng s (Wi) ca cc thnh phn: Kinh t, x hi, mi trng i vi tnh bn vng.

Xi*Wi

Bn xut s dng t bn vng

3 Kt thc

Hnh 1: M hnh GIS v FAHP trong nh gi t ai bn vng

Bc 1: Xc nh cc yu t (indicators) nh hng n tnh bn vng ca cc h thng s dng t (LUS), tnh trng s cc yu t theo FAHP (hnh 2). Thit lp th bc, ma trn so snh cp r gia cc yu t ([aij]), ma trn so snh c t s nht qun (CR) <10% th tin hnh m ho [aij]. Thit lp th bc cc yu t Ma trn so snh cp r gia cc yu t: [aij]
No

M ho [aij], mi quan h gia gi tr so snh r (Saaty, 1980) vi gi tr m (l, m, u) v s m nghch o (1/u, 1/m, 1/l) ca bin ngn ng theo Srdjevic et al. (2008) v Onut et al.(2010), xem bng 1. Tnh trng s ca cc yu t theo phng php FAHP (Chang, 1992; 1996), trnh by mc 2.1. Kt qu c vector trng s cc yu t [w]. Bc 2: nh gi thch nghi t ai t nhin, nhng LUS thch nghi t nhin (S1, S2, S3) c chn nh gi thch nghi kinh t v tnh bn vng, tnh bn vng c xem xt vi cc yu t kinh t, x hi, mi trng. Bc 3: Xy dng cc lp thng tin chuyn , chng xp cc lp thng tin, tnh c ch s thch hp (Si) ng vi tng vng, phn loi Si xc nh vng thch nghi bn vng. Cng thc tnh Si nh sau:

CRk 10%
Yes

M ho ma trn so snh cp: [a ij ] Tnh trng s cc yu t theo FAHP(Chang, 1992, 1996): [w] Hnh 2: FAHP trong xc nh trng s cc yu t
~

S i = ( wi xi ) c j
i =1 j =1

ca yu t hn ch.

Trong , Si: ch s thch nghi; wi: trng s ca tiu chun i; xi: im ca tiu chun; cj: gi tr boolean

3. NG DNG M HNH VO NH GI T AI TNH LM NG ng dng m hnh tch hp GIS v FAHP (hnh 1) vo nh gi thch nghi t ai bn vng tnh Lm ng. Cc LUT c la chn nh gi thch nghi t ai: LUT1 (2 v la), LUT2 (1 v la), LUT3 (chuyn mu), LUT4 (rau - hoa), LUT5 (C ph), LUT6 (Ch), LUT7 (iu). Bc 1 (Xc nh cc yu t bn vng v tnh trng s cc yu t): Theo hng dn nh gi t ai bn vng (FAO, 1993b, 2007) kt hp vi phn tch iu kin t nhin, kinh t -x hi ca tnh Lm ng v tham kho kin ca cc chuyn gia trong cc lnh vc: kinh t, mi trng, nng hc, t ai. Cc yu t (indicators) ch yu nh hng n tnh bn vng cc LUS trn a bn tnh Lm ng th hin trong bng 7. ng dng m hnh FAHP (hnh 2) trong xc nh trng s cc yu t, tin trnh thc hin nh sau: (a). i vi cc yu t cp 1: Gm yu t kinh t (KT), x hi (XH), ti nguyn thin nhin v mi trng (TNTN&MT). Ma trn so snh r (bng 2) c ch s nht qun CR=4,6%; M ho ma trn so snh r, kt qu c ma trn so snh m (bng 3).

Bng 2: Ma trn so snh r KT XH TNTN&MT KT XH TNTN&MT 1 1/2 1/2 2 1 2 2 1/2 1 M ho 1

Bng 3: Ma trn so snh m KT 1 1 1/3 1/2 1/1 1 XH 1 1 TNTN&MT 1/3 1/2 1/1 1 1 1 1/1 2/1 3/1 1/1 2/1 3/1

1/3 1/2 1/1 1/1 2/1 3/1

T ma trn so snh m (bng 3), tnh trng s ca cc yu t theo Chang(1992, 1996), cc bc thc hin nh sau (xem mc 2.1):

Bc 1: Tng hp mc nh hng m ca cc yu t: SKT = (3/1; 5/1; 7/1) (1/27; 6/91; 2/13) = (0,2000; 0,4762; 1,0000) SXH = (5/3; 2/3; 3/1) (1/27; 6/91; 2/13) = (0,1111; 0,1905; 0,4286) STNTN&MT = (7/3; 7/2; 5/1) (1/27; 6/91; 2/13) = (0,1556; 0,3333; 0,7143)

Bc 2: So snh cc cp s m: V(SKT SXH) = 1,00; V(SKT STNTN&MT) = 1,00 V(SXH SKT) = 0,44; V(SXH STNTN&MT) = 0,66 V(STNTN&MT SKT) = 0,78; V(STNTN&MT SXH) = 1,00

Bc 3: Gi tr nh nht ca mi cp s m: d(KT) = MinV(SKT Si) = 1,00; Si = SXH , STNTN&MT d(XH)= MinV(SXH Si) = 0,44; Si = SKT, STNTN&MT d(TNTN&MT)= MinV(STNTN&MT Si) = 0,78; Si = SKT, SXH [W] = [d(KT); d(XH); d(TNTN&MT)]T = [1,00; 0,44; 0,78]T

Bc 4: Chun ho [W] c vector trng s r (crisp) cn tm: [W] = [wKT; wXH; wTNTN&MT]T = [0,449; 0,200; 0,351]T

Vi phng php tnh tng t, trng s ca cc yu t cp 2 v cp 3 c xc nh nh sau: (b). i vi cc yu t cp 2: + Yu t cp 2 thuc nhm kinh t gm 3 yu t: Tng gi tr sn xut (GO), li thun (GM), gi tr sn xut/chi ph sn xut (B/C). Bng 4: Ma trn so snh m - cc yu t cp 2 thuc nhm kinh t Yu t GO GM B/C 1/1 1/2 1/3 GO 1/1 1/1 1/2 1/1 1/1 1/1 1/1 1/1 1/2 GM 1/1 1/1 1/1 2/1 1/1 1/1 1/1 1/1 1/1 B/C 2/1 1/1 1/1 3/1 2/1 1/1

T bng 4, tnh c vector trng s [wGO; wGM; wB/C]T = [0,439; 0,329; 0,233]T. + Yu t cp 2 thuc nhm x hi gm 5 yu t: Gii quyt vic lm (LDong), vn ho a phng v tp qun sn xut (VHTQSX), ph hp vi chnh sch (CSach), h tr k thut (HTKT), ph hp vi kh nng vn ca i tng sn xut (KNVon).

Bng 5: Ma trn so snh m - cc yu t cp 2 thuc nhm x hi Yu t LDong VHTQSX CSach HTKT KNVon Ldong 1 1/3 2/1 1/2 1/3 1 1 1/2 1/1 VHTQSX 1 1 1 CSach 1/1 1/2 2/1 1 1/2 1/3 1/2 1/1 1 1 1 HTKT KNVon 1/1 2/1 3/1 1/4 1/3 1/2 1/1 2/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 1/1 1/1 1/2 1/1 1/1 3/1 4/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 1 1 1/1 1/1 2/1 1 1 1 1/1 1/1

3/1 4/1 1/1 2/1 3/1

1/1 1/1 1/1 1/1 2/1 1/4 1/3 1/2 1/2 1/1 1/1 1/1 2/1 1/3 1/2 1/1

T bng 5, tnh c vector trng s: [wLDong; wVHTQSX; wCSach; wHTKT; wKNVon]T = [0,248; 0,091; 0,382; 0,150; 0,130]T + Yu t cp 2 thuc nhm Ti nguyn thin nhin v Mi trng gm 2 yu t: Ti nguyn thin nhin (TNTN), Mi trng (MT). iu tra cc chuyn gia trong lnh vc qun l ti nguyn thin nhin v mi trng, hu ht cc chuyn gia u nh gi trng s ca wTNTN = wMT = 1/2 = 0,5. (c). i vi cc yu t cp 3: +Yu t cp 3 thuc nhm Ti nguyn thin nhin (TNTN) gm 9 yu t cp 3: Lng ma (Ra), thi gian ma (Ti), cht lng t (So), dc (Sl), tng dy (De), su kt von (La), cao (To), iu kin ti (Ir), ngp l (Fl). Theo cc chuyn gia thuc Vin Quy hoch v Thit k Nng nghip (B NN & PTNT), cc yu t t nhin c vai tr nh nhau (theo quan im ca FAO, 1976), do vy trng s cc yu t bng nhau: wRa= wTi = wSo = wSl = wDe = wLa = wTo = wIr = wFl = 1/9 0,111. + Yu t cp 3 thuc nhm Mi trng (MT) gm 3 yu t: Lng thuc tr su v phn bn a vo t (VoCo), nng cao a dng sinh hc (DDSH), che ph (ChePhu). Bng 6: Ma trn so snh m - cc yu t cp 2 thuc nhm mi trng Yu t VoCo DDSH ChePhu 1/1 1/3 3/4 VoCo 1/1 1/2 3/1 1/1 1/1 4/1 1/1 1/1 2/1 DDSH 2/1 1/1 3/1 3/1 1/1 4/1 1/4 1/4 1/1 ChePhu 1/3 1/3 1/1 4/3 1/2 1/1

T ma trn so snh m (bng 6), xc nh c vector trng s nh sau: [wVoCo; wDDSH; wChePhu]T = [0,338; 0,111; 0,551]T. Nh vy, xc nh c tt c trng s tng phn ca cc yu t cp 1, cp 2, cp 3. Trng s ton cc l tch cc trng s thnh phn t gc n ngn theo cy th bc (bng 7). Cp 1 Kinh t W1 0,449 X hi Bng 7: Cu trc th bc v trng s cc yu t bn vng Cp 2 Cp 3 M Trng s 1. Tng gi tr sn xut 2. Li thun 3. Gi tr sn xut/Chi ph sn xut 1. Gii quyt vic lm GO GM B/C LDong W11 W12 W13 W21 Trng s ton cc 0,439 0,197 0,329 0,148 0,233 0,104 0,248 0,049 6

2. Vn ha a phng (tp qun, vn ha,..) 3. Ph hp vi chnh sch 4. H tr k thut (pht huy k nng) 5. Ph hp vi kh nng vn ca i tng sn xut 1. Lng ma Ti 2. Thi gian ma MT&TNTN nguyn 3. Cht lng t thin 4. dc W3 nhin 5. Tng dy 0,351 W31 6. su xut hin kt von 0,5 7. cao 8. iu kin ti 9. Ngp l Mi 1. Lng thuc tr su v phn bn trng a vo t W32 2. Nng cao a dng sinh hc 0,5 3. che ph Trng s ton cc th hin bng 7, cch tnh nh sau:

W2 0,200

VHTQSX W22 0,091 CSach W23 0,382 HTKT W24 0,150 KNVon W25 0,130 Ra Ti So Sl De La To Ir Fl VoCo W311 0,111 W312 0,111 W313 0,111 W314 0,111 W315 0,111 W316 0,111 W317 0,111 W318 0,111 W319 0,111 W321 0,338

0,018 0,076 0,030 0,026 0,020 0,020 0,020 0,020 0,020 0,020 0,020 0,020 0,020 0,059 0,019 0,097

DDSH W322 0,111 ChePhu W323 0,551

- Nhm kinh t: w1w1j (j=1, 2, 3), v d w(B/C) = 0,4490,248 = 0,104. - Nhm x hi: w2w2j (j=1,.., 5), v d w(gii quyt vic lm) = 0,2000,248 = 0,049. - Nhm ti nguyn thin nhin: w3w31w31j (j=1,.., 9), v d: w(lng ma) = 0,3510,50,111 = 0,020. - Nhm mi trng: w3w3232j (j=1,2,3), v d: w( che ph) = 0,3510,50,551=0,097. Bc 2 (nh gi t ai t nhin): ng dng GIS chng xp 9 lp thng tin chuyn v ti nguyn thin nhin (bng 7) xy dng bn ti nguyn t ai (LMU), lm c s cho nh gi thch nghi v t nhin. Nhng LUS thch nghi t nhin (S1, S2, S3) c la chn nh gi thch nghi kinh t v tnh bn vng. Bc 3 (nh gi thch nghi kinh t v tnh bn vng): Tham kho kin chuyn gia v kt hp vi thc tin thit lp bng gi tr (Xi) ca cc tiu chun nh hng n tnh bn vng (bng 8). Bng 8: Gi tr cc tiu chun phn cp Ch tiu Gi tr Nhm yu t Yu t (Xi) 1. Kinh t 1.1. Tng gi tr + Rt cao (VH) 9 sn phm + Cao (H) 7 + Trung bnh (M) 5 + Thp (L) 1 1.2. Li thun + Rt cao (VH) 9 + Cao (H) 7 + Trung bnh (M) 5 + Thp (L) 1 1.3. B/C + Rt cao (VH) 9 7

Nhm yu t

Yu t

Ch tiu

2. X hi

2.1. Lao ng 2.2. Vn ha a phng (tp qun, vn ha,) 2.3. Ph hp chnh sch 2.4. H tr k thut (pht huy k nng) 2.5. Kh nng vn ca i tng sn xut Kh nng thch nghi t ai t nhin 4.1. Lng thuc tr su v phn bn vo t 4.2. Nng cao a dng sinh hc 4.3. che ph

3. Ti nguyn Thin nhin 4. Mi trng

Gi tr (Xi) + Cao (H) 7 + Trung bnh (M) 5 + Thp (L) 1 + Gii quyt vic lm rt tt (VH) 9 + Gii quyt vic lm tt (H) 7 + Gii quyt vic lm trung bnh (M) 5 + Ph hp vi tp qun a phng 9 + t ph hp vi tp qun a phng 7 + Khng ph hp vi tp qun a phng 3 + Khuyn khch m rng sn xut 9 + n nh din tch sn xut 7 + Yu cu k thut cao 7 + t yu cu h tr k thut 9 + Chi ph trung bnh (M) 9 + Chi ph cao (VH, H) 7 + S1: Thch nghi cao 9 + S2: Thch nghi trung bnh 7 + S3: Thch nghi km 5 + Rt cao 5 + Cao 7 + Trung bnh, thp 9 + a canh 9 + c canh 7 + Che ph lin tc 9 + Che ph khng lin tc 7

Mi yu t l mt mt lp thng tin, chng xp cc lp thng tin v kinh t nh gi thch nghi kinh t, ch s thch hp (Si) tnh theo cng thc. Phn loi ch s thch hp, c kt qu thch nghi kinh t. Tng t, chng xp bn thch nghi t nhin, kinh t v cc tnh cht v x hi v mi trng nh gi thch nghi t ai bn vng, kt qu c bn v s liu v thch nghi t ai bn vng.

Chng xp bn thch nghi t ai bn vng v bn nh hng s dng t n nm 2020, kt qu c bn xut s dng t nng nghip bn vng (hnh 4). Din tch phn nh cho sn xut nng nghip khong 277.000 ha. + nh gi hin trng thch nghi t ai: ng dng GIS chng xp bn xut (hnh 4) vi bn hin trng s dng t nm 2010, kt qu tnh ton cho thy, hin nay c khong 36.177 ha (604ha mu, 2.240ha rau-hoa, 29.733ha c ph, khong 3.600ha la 2 v) ang sn xut trn vng t c dc cao hoc nm trong lm Hnh 4: Bn xut s dng t bn vng, phn nn khng ph hp cho sn xut tnh Lm ng nng nghip, tng lai ngh chuyn sang t lm nghip. Loi hnh la 1 v cn chuyn sang cc loi t khc (do hiu qu kinh t thp nn khng bn vng). Ngoi ra, hin trng sn xut cc loi hnh rau hoa, c ph, ch, iu c tnh bn vng cao. Bn nh hng khng gian pht trin sn xut tng loi cy trng c xy dng trn c s nh hng pht trin sn xut nng nghip n nm 2020 ca tnh Lm ng: - Rau-hoa hng ho ch b tr tp trung cc huyn c Trng, n Dng, Lc Dng v thnh ph Lt. - Loi hnh s dng t la 2 v gi nguyn nh hin trng. - Loi hnh la 1 v chuyn sang rau-hoa, nhng vng c nc t cc cng trnh thu li th tng v (2 v la), cn li chuyn sang trng mu. - Cy iu b tr cc huyn Huoai, Th, Ct Tin, am Rng. - Cy ch b tr tp trung cc huyn Bo Lm, Di Linh v Bo Lc. Ring a bn thnh ph Lt v huyn Lm H, gi nh hin trng, khng m rng din tch. - Cy c ph n nh a bn hin trng, m rng nhng vng thch thch nghi theo c cu din tch ca tng phng n s dng t. ng dng GIS chng xp bn nh hng khng gian pht trin cc loi cy trng vi bn xut v bn hin trng s dng t, t xut s dng t bn vng trn a bn tnh Lm ng nh sau: Trong tng lai, chuyn ton b t la 1 v sang trng mu, rau-hoa, hoc tng ln 2 v la; Din tch t la 2 v: 8.000-12.000ha; Rau-hoa: 10.000-20.000ha; Chuyn mu: 30.000-40.000ha; Ch: 25.000-32.000ha; C ph: 110.000-150.000; iu: 10.00015.000ha; Din tch cn li (khong 45.000ha) trng cao su, du tm, cy n qu v vn tp. + nh gi kt qu m hnh: So snh kt qu nghin cu ny (trong hnh 3, vit tt l FAHP) vi (1). Kt qu ca Phn vin Quy hoch v TKNN (2010): nh gi thch nghi t nhin theo phng php hn ch ln nht ca FAO (1976) (trong hnh 3 l FAO76); (2). Kt qu nh gi t ai bn vng theo phng php AHP (nh, 2010), (trong hnh 3 l AHP). T c mt s nhn xt nh sau: - Phng php hn ch ln nht (FAO, 1976): Tch cht t ai (LC) c cht lng km nht quyt nh n cp thch nghi t ai. Do vy, kt qu xut nhng LUS rt an ton do khng cha yu t hn ch cao hn. 9

- Phng php nh gi t ai theo AHP cho din tch khng thch nghi (N) thp hn cc phng php (FAO76, FAHP), c ngha l mt s vng khng thch nghi (khi nh gi theo phng php FAO, FAHP) c th tr thnh thch nghi (khi nh gi theo phng php AHP), iu ny dn n ri ro cao trong xut s dng t. - Din tch cp thch nghi cao (S1) khi nh gi theo phng php FAHP > AHP, c ngha l phng php FAHP cht lc thng tin, iu chnh v cp thch nghi theo xu th t trung bnh (S3) n cao (S1), ch t iu chnh t lp khng thch nghi (N) thnh thch nghi (S1, S2, S3) nh phng php AHP. - nh gi thch nghi t ai bn vng l ni dung khng th thiu trong quy hoch s dng t bn vng, n h tr nh quy hoch loi b nhng LUS khng bn vng (mc d rt thch nghi v t nhin nh la 1 v -LUT2) hoc la chn nhng LUS bn vng (mc d thch nghi kinh t trung bnh nhng p ng c yu cu x hi v bo v mi trng nh cy iu - LUT7).

1.000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 AHP AHP AHP AHP AHP AHP FAHP FAHP FAHP FAHP FAHP FAHP AHP FAO76 FAO76 FAO76 FAO76 FAO76 FAO76 FAO76 FAHP

1.000ha

LUT1

LUT2

LUT3

LUT4

LUT5

LUT6

LUT7

S1

S2

S3

Hnh 3: So snh kt qu 3 phng php FAO76, AHP, FAHP.

Do vy, trong iu kin khan him ti nguyn t ai nh hin nay, vic nh gi thch nghi t ai tm kim m rng din tch t cho pht trin cy trng th ng dng phng php FAHP l hp l. 4. KT LUN M hnh tch hp GIS v FAHP l cng c tht s hu ch trong nh gi thch nghi t ai bn vng. Trong , GIS ng vai tr phn tch khng gian, FAHP tnh trng s cc yu t t ai. u im ca m hnh l tnh trng s trong mi trng m (dng FAHP) nn gim c sai s v cht lc c thng tin trong qu trnh nh gi. Kt qu ca m hnh h tr ngi ra quyt nh (nh qun l, nh quy hoch,) gii quyt bi ton ra quyt nh a mc tiu khng gian trong b tr s dng t mt cch trc quan thng qua bn s trong h GIS (v d nh la chn khu vc sn xut c ph, ch,).

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ng dng m hnh tch hp GIS v FAHP trong nh gi thch nghi t ai phc v cho qun l s dng t bn vng trn a bn tnh Lm ng, kt qu xut s dng t bn vng ph hp vi thc tin ca a phng, nn c th s dng kt qu ca nghin cu ny (gm: ti liu v bn ) trong cng tc qun l v s dng t trn a bn tnh Lm ng. Trong tng lai, c th nhn rng m hnh ny trong cng tc nh gi thch nghi t ai cho cc a phng khc trn c nc. Tuy nhin, m hnh FAHP trong nghin cu ny c thc hin trong mi trng ra quyt nh ring r (individual decision making) nn cn mang tnh ch quan ca chuyn gia nh gi. khc phc tnh ch quan v tranh th c tri thc ca nhiu chuyn gia trong cc lnh vc, trong tng lai cn tip tc nghin cu FAHP trong mi trng ra quyt nh nhm (FAHP group decision making) trong nh gi t ai.

5. TI LIU THAM KHO [1]. [2]. [3]. [4]. [5]. [6]. V.Y.C. Chen, H.P. Lien, C.H. Liu, J.J.H. Liou, G.H Tzeng, L.S Yang (2011), Fuzzy MCDM approach for selecting the best environment-watershed plan, Applied Soft Computing 11 (2011) 265275, ScienceDirect, Elsevier. C. Kahraman (2008), Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making: Theory and Application with Recent Developments, Springer, USA J. Lu, G. Zhang, D. Ruan, F. Wu (2007), Multi-Objective Group Decision Making: Method, software, and application with fuzzy techniques, World scientific Publishing, Singapore. S. Onut, T. Efendigil, S.S. Kara (2010), A combined fuzzy MCDM approach for selecting shopping center site: An example from Istanbul, Turkey, Expert system with application 37 (2010), 1973-1980, Science Direct, Elsevier. B. Srdjevic, Y.D.P. Medeiros (2008), Fuzzy AHP Assessment of Water Management Plans, Water Resources Management (2008) 22:877894, Springer Science. C. Zopounidis, P. M. Pardalos (2010), Handbook of MultiCriteria Analysis, Applied optimization, Springer, USA. SUMMARY THE INTEGRATION OF GIS AND FUZZY AHP FOR LAND SUITABILITY ANALYSIS Evaluating sustainable land management (ESLM) related to various fields (natural, economic, social, environmental). This is a multi-criteria decision making problem. In this study, building a model of the integration of GIS and fuzzy AHP (FAHP) in ESLM. The process as follows: The first, determine the sustainable indicators as approach FAO (1993b, 2007), using techniques FAHP (Chang, 1992, 1996) to calculate the weights of all indicators; Next, establish the thematic layers in GIS systems to each factor; Finally, unite thematic layers of information, calculate the appropriate index (Si) according to the weighted average method for each region, classify Si to determine the appropriate area. 11

Integrated model is applied in the case of Lam Dong province, results consistent with reality than previous studies. Keywords: Fuzzy AHP, GIS, Land suitability analysis, Evaluating sustainable land management.

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