MECHANISMS OF RESERVOIR INDUCED SEISMICITY

Peter M. James1

ABSTRACT The variable characteristics exhibited by reservoir induced seismicity (RIS) can be adequately explained by the reduction in effective in situ stresses, brought about by impounding. Vertical reservoir loading has negligible impact and the controlling factor is the horizontal stress condition at any depth. This stress condition can be imposed on the crust by geoid changes. Analysis by Mohr circles leads to the conclusion that the crystalline basement rocks frequently exist in a state of incipient failure, often tensile. INTRODUCTION Over seventy case histories of reservoir induced seismicity (RIS) are cited by Gupta (1992). The induced earthquakes range from shallow, less than 1 - 2 km focal depth, to moderate crustal depths of 10 - 12 km. A large majority of events appear to fall within the 4 - 6 km depth range, which would place them within the crystalline basement rocks at levels not normally considered in dam site investigations. In a majority of cases, RIS commences with impounding and reaches a maximum at times of full supply level, or shortly after, Figure 1. In other cases, no direct correlation between water level and seismic activity is obvious, although a time lag is sometimes apparent in the association. Occasionally, the seismic activity does not commence until many years after the reservoir has been in operation: at Oroville Dam after twelve years; Aswan Dam after sixteen years; Hoover Dam after forty years. In yet other cases, it is the rate of water level change which correlates with the seismic activity. A notably large number of RIS sites occur in otherwise seismically quiet regions: locations such as the central China shield; the Indian Deccan; the African and North American shields. By contrast, large dams in the seismic zones of the Himalayas cause no apparent increase in activity. Possibly because of apparently anomalous behaviour of the above kind, there appears to be a reluctance to identify any single cause for RIS and most texts offer two possible explanations: simple loading effects by the reservoir mass; effects of raised water levels on the ambient in situ stress conditions. These two factors are treated in turn below under vertical loadings and horizontal stress conditions, respectively.

Figure 1 : Timing of RIS events Figure 2 : Earthquake Magnitude vs Reservoir Load

1

Consulting Geotechnical Engineer. 6/35 Howard St., Brisbane, Q 4000

VERTICAL LOADINGS. At the outset, it might be stated that a reservoir replaces only a fraction of the load which has already been removed by valley erosion. Nonetheless, reservoirs do cause measurable settlement of the ground
surface, generally of the order of centimetres. This is an amount which could well be explained as simple closure of near surface cracks and pores, as in any field loading test. That is, the settlement can logically be explained as recompression of the stress relief which took place during the preceding erosion cycle. There is no justification for extrapolating such settlement down to greater depths, particularly in an attempt to postulate elastic flexure of the lithosphere as a result of the reservoir loading. For example, a Boussinesq approach to stress attenuation predicts that the vertical loadings imposed by a reservoir 5 km wide would die out well before 20 km depth. In most continental crust areas, therefore, the loading effects of large reservoirs would not even penetrate to the Moho. Again, where earthquake activity is induced at depths of 5 - 10 km, the loading of a 100 m deep reservoir represents only a 0.5% - 1% increase in the vertical stress already extant at that depth. One would not imagine this to be a highly significant loading change. Other factors need to be taken into account. For instance, while most earthquakes occur in close proximity to the dam site/reservoir, RIS has been recorded at distances of 5 km or more from the reservoir, locations free from any vertical loading by the reservoir, whatsoever. If there is any correlation present in this aspect of distance, it is that the distant earthquakes tend to occur a long time after impounding, such as in the three dams mentioned above. The case histories described by Gupta (ibid) are plotted on Figure 2, as maximum earthquake Magnitude against dam height, which is taken as a rough guide to reservoir loading. It can be seen that there is no correlation between reservoir loading intensity and earthquake intensity. Dams 50 m high have produced earthquakes to Magnitude 5, while dams over 200 m high have produced earthquakes of little more than half this value. It is worth repeating that, in the vast majority of these cases, the earthquakes are occurring in the crystalline basement rocks, so that the surface geology does not necessarily enter into the discussion. Maximum Magnitude values may not be the most sensitive indicator of RIS. However, combined with the other characteristics mentioned above, it demonstrates fairly conclusively that vertical loadings are of negligible importance in RIS. This conclusion provides support for proposals by the writer that vertical loadings of a geological nature are also of little or no value in the production of natural earthquakes; indeed that the traditional concept of isostasy does not bear even cursory geomechanics and geological scrutiny, James (1994,1999).

HORIZONTAL STRESS CHANGES If simple vertical loading is a negligible factor in RIS, this leaves the role of pore pressure changes as the predominant factor. This can be developed further. At the base of the valley, a water table close to river level could be assumed. Impounding would raise the hydrostatic pressures beneath this zone and the pressures would also migrate laterally, via the discontinuity patterns in the rock mass. Thus, impounding first raises the underlying pore pressures and, subsequently, the ambient pore pressures. This rise in the pore pressures reduces the effective in situ stresses. The relative effects of this reduction are treated below for very shallow earthquakes, less than 1 - 2 km focal depth, and for earthquakes at more moderate depths of 4 5 km. The reason for this division arises from the impression that there is a nadir in RIS activity around the 2 - 3 km depth, although this might only be a function of the data available. Very Shallow Earthquakes Figure 3 illustrates the changes which might be introduced into a valley by impounding behind a major dam. The initial vertical stress at a point A, on the water table perhaps some 400 m below the surface, is given by the overburden loading:

v

400 x 25 kPa

1 x 104 kPa

At the water table this would be an effective stress loading. After impounding, the piezomentric head rises and the effective vertical and horizontal stresses are reduced.

Figure 3: Earthquake-reservoir relations High horizontal stresses are frequently recorded in the rock masses to this depth, with maxima several times the vertical stress, or more. A Mohr circle has been drawn in Figure 4 for a high horizontal stress situation (solid line). It is also conceivable that zones of crustal tension could occur. For the purposes of discussion, let us assume a horizontal stress slightly less than half the vertical exists. This situation is also represented by a Mohr circle (solid line) in the figure. A failure envelope for a favourably orientated discontinuity, with = 30, has been drawn on the figure. The Mohr circles for the above two pristine in situ stress conditions fall just below this failure envelope. In practice, a fault or flexural slip seam could be at a residual strength less than that used here. In such cases, smaller shear stresses, in situ, could be used to keep the circles under the failure envelope, but the argument is otherwise unchanged. After impounding, the piezometric levels at point A would be raised. This raising need not occur as a general water table rise, as long as the piezometric head in interconnected discontinuities responds. Let us assume that the rise at point A is 100 m, a hydrostatic uplift of 1 x 103 kPa. This changes the effective stresses at point A, displacing the Mohr circles to the left (dashed lines). For the hypothetical cases shown, the displaced Mohr circles now cut the failure envelope. That is, the increased pore pressure is the proverbial last straw and failure takes place on some section of a favourably inclined discontinuity: an earthquake. In practice, RIS often tends to move about, over time, affecting a whole series of discontinuities. This argument implies that the rock mass needs to be highly stressed, or in a condition of incipient failure, prior to impounding. Failure under conditions of compression should take the form of thrust faulting and such cases have been identified at shallow depth by Gupta (ibid). In such a zone of compression, so close to failure, one might expect manifestations of this condition. That is, such an area would probably be seismically active prior to impounding. In tension, rock behaves in a more brittle fashion and smaller strains are needed to bring about failure. In tension, as well, the effect of the pore pressure change is relatively much greater than in compression, as can be seen from the figure. Thus, in a zone of tension, felt earthquake activity need not be recorded prior to impounding although it can be set off by the pore pressure rises associated with the act of impounding. Nonetheless, one might still expect that some form of micro seismic activity ought to be present in rocks so close to (localised) failure, even in tension. Failure in tension implies normal faulting, or steep translational faults with some normal component. Both kinds of faulting have been reported at shallow levels by Gupta. Deeper Earthquakes A similar argument on in situ stress conditions can be developed for deeper earthquakes at, say, 5 km focal depth. As an aside, it can be said that, where the reservoir is less than about 1.5 km wide, its vertical loading would not penetrate effectively to a focal depth of 5 km, yet such reservoirs can and do cause earthquakes below this depth. This reinforces the view that RIS is not related to vertical loadings but only to pore pressure changes.

According to the principle of effective stress, hydrostatic pressures at depth beneath the reservoir should respond immediately, or nearly so, to any changes in water level at the surface.

Figure 4 : Shallow earthquakes

Figure 5 : Deeper earthquakes

The vertical (effective) stress at 5 km depth is marked on Figure 5. According to Heim, the in- situ stresses at this order of depth should begin to even out, with horizontal and vertical stresses approximately equal. If this were the normal situation, of course, earthquakes as a whole would not occur. Moreover, it is at depths of about 4 km depth where deep boreholes first experience problems with changes in shape, indicating that horizontal stresses are not equal. Hence, the assumption is made that either high horizontal stress conditions (compression) or low horizontal stress conditions (tension) can be present at depth. The Mohr circles (solid lines) drawn in Figure 5 for the above conditions, conveniently lie just below the same failure envelope as before. In the case of high compression at depth, it is obvious from Figure 5 that the change in pore pressure on reservoir impounding is exceedingly minor, shifting the Mohr circle only a negligible amount to the left (dashed line). For such a minor change in pore pressure to be able to initiate an earthquake would surely mean that the rocks are already in a failure mode. That is, the dam site would be in a highly active seismic zone. This would be the case, say, in an area like the Himalayas which are in a condition of regional compression and uplift. Hence, in such areas, even very large reservoirs could be expected to produce little or no measurable change in earthquake activity, as indeed has been noted in the literature. Where the upper crust is in a state of tension, the pore pressure changes have a relatively greater effect, as can be seen from the figure. Thus, pore pressure changes would be more likely to produce RIS where the deeper crustal rocks are in tension. To put this another way, in an area which is seismically quiet, reservoir induced seismicity at deeper levels is likely to occur only where tensile conditions exist. Failure in tension would imply normal faulting or translational (strike-slip) faults on steeply dipping discontinuities which also exhibit some vertical (normal) movement. Indeed, this is what has been recorded at sites such as Oroville and Hoover dams. As mooted earlier, the above argument assumes that water pressures are transmitted immediately to the required depths in the crust. This, of course, is one of the tenets of the principle of effective stress and hence it is inferred that the principle holds at least to depths of 10 to 15 km. Where earthquakes occur some kilometres downstream of the dam, or otherwise distant from the reservoir, the delays can be explained by the time it takes for lateral diffusion of the high pore pressures from beneath the reservoir. Seismicity at a distance typically occurs some years after impounding. Instances of RIS related to the rate of change in water levels have also been recorded. This phenomenon may simply be a reflection of the rock mass permeability: fast water level changes producing a form of undrained hydrostatic load, while slow water level changes allow some dissipation to occur. In terms of Mohr circles, the slower water level changes would not displace the circles as far to the left as rapid changes. Earthquakes at depth are beyond the scope of most dam site investigations. Hence, it will not generally be possible to predict their occurrence from in situ stress measurements. Micro seismic networks provide the principal means of identifying and controlling RIS.

THE ORIGIN OF HORIZONTAL CRUSTAL STRESSES The effect of stress release in valley erosion, particularly in regimes of high horizontal stress, has been treated briefly elsewhere by the writer, James (1991). This treatment deals with the superficial rock mass. By contrast, RIS has its main response in the crystalline basement rocks. The fact that a minor change in pore pressure can bring about a major release in strain energy at considerable depths indicates that the upper crust must be highly stressed or even in a state of incipient failure. Moreover, judging by the widespread occurrence of RIS, the above arguments suggest that high tensile conditions must be a common condition at moderate crustal depths. The question must therefore be asked: How do such stress levels develop? Mobile plate tectonics gives no leads on the matter, at least in intra-plate zones. Indeed, one of the glaring weaknesses of the mobilist model is that observations on the behaviour of the brittle crust are not interpreted for their intrinsic value but interpreted largely as reflecting massive deformations of the more plastic substrata. Yet the two media are as different as chalk from cheese. Furthermore, the mobilist hypothesis makes an assumption of thick rigid plates, which prevents any consideration of the stresses which must be imposed on the crust by latitude changes. Let us consider what occurs when latitude changes are imposed on the crust.1 The most severe change would be given by an element of crust travelling from the equator to the pole. By leaving the equatorial bulge and entering the zone of polar flattening, the element would be subject to changes in the radius of curvature of the earth. Compressive strains of the order of 0.5 - 1% would be involved and the strains would be in two dimensions. That is, a reduction in surface area, or compression, would be required of the crust. The reverse would be true for a migration from pole to equator, when an expanded surface area would be required, placing the crust under tensile conditions. Heiskanen and Meinesz (1958 ) estimated that stresses of the order of 1.3 x 105 kPa would be imposed on the outer shell of the earth by either process, assuming a homogeneous crust. A similar value can be obtained simply by taking the above strains and a reasonable value for the Youngs Modulus of hard rock. Smaller latitude shifts would, obviously, produce smaller geoid stresses. How the lithosphere and upper mantle adjust to this change is one thing. But the changes imposed on the brittle crust under these stresses is something we can predict. Stresses and strains of the above quoted order are sufficient to cause tensile failure in intact rocks such as granites and basalts, while also being close to the unconfined strength of granite. These matters have been treated elsewhere, James (1994). Migration from equator to pole is, of course, an extreme case. On a lesser scale, we could use evidence such as the fact that, 15,000 years ago, the centre of ice (North Pole) was at Baffin Island. Movement of the pole to the present position might have produced geoid stresses up to, say, 20% of those extreme values given by Heiskanen and Meinesz: perhaps 2 x 104 kPa. This level of stress, as an additional horizontal stress imposed on or subtracted from the existing in situ stresses, would be sufficient to provide the shear stresses in the crust of the values shown on Figures 4 and 5. That is, geoid stresses alone would tend to place much of the Earths crust in a state of incipient failure, either compressive or tensile. The above argument assumes that residual geoidal stresses remain in the crust after latitude changes. This is logical. An element of crust subjected initially to tensile conditions and then subsequently to compression, would not have the tensile state undone by the compression since the stress/strain paths for natural materials are not reversible. A whole new set of responses would be imposed by each stage, leaving the original stress present as a residual condition. CONCLUSIONS Seismicity typically occurs close to the dam/reservoir immediately on, or within a few years of, impounding. When seismic activity occurs at some distance from a dam, this is typically recorded after long delays and it is proposed that the delays are related to the rate of lateral diffusion of pore pressures from the reservoir into the peripheral environment. An association between RIS and the rate of change in reservoir level, as at
1

The mechanism of migration could be thought of as drift, by supporters of mobile plate tectonics, or alternatively by true (geographical) polar wander.

Nurek Dam (USSR), Gupta (ibid), may be simply be a reflection of rock mass permeability One important fact which emerges from RIS patterns is that the hydrostatic pressure changes can be recorded almost immediately at depths of 10 to 12 km. This confirms that the principle of effective stress can be taken to apply to such depths. Reservoir induced earthquakes are seen as being largely independent of vertical reservoir loadings. Obviously, the higher the dam the greater will be the potential pore pressure changes in the subsurface environment, but otherwise the size of the dam would appear to be of secondary importance to the in situ stress condition in the crystalline basement rocks. The widespread occurrence of RIS strongly indicates that the Earths upper crust must be normally in a highly stressed condition, or in a state of incipient failure, even in zones of Pre-Cambrian shields. Moreover, a condition of crustal tension must be a common factor. The cause of the crustal stresses can be attributed to geoid stresses imposed on the crust by latitude changes. Such an origin of global stresses also goes much of the way to explaining the ubiquitous presence of joints and minor faults in all rock masses. RIS lies beyond the scope of most traditional dam site investigations. It is therefore important that micro seismic networks be set up for any dam above, say, 50 m height. The network needs to be installed at an early stage in the planning of a dam, to establish the background activity. If RIS is to occur, there should be some micro seismic indications of the naturally stressed condition of the basement rocks. REFERENCES Heiskanen W.A. & Meinesz V. (1958). The Earth and Its Gravity Field. McGraw-Hill, N.Y. Gupta H.K. (1992): Reservoir Induced Earthquakes. Elsevier, Amsterdam. James P.M. (1991). Stress and strain in river downcutting. Australian Geomechanics, No 21 (Dec.), pp. 28 -31. James P.M. (1994): The Tectonics of Geoid Changes. Polar Publ., Calgary. James P.M., (1999): A note on the cause of earthquakes. Australian Geomechanics, Vol.34, No 2, pp8994 Rynn J. (1999). Pers Comms.