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Greg Satell, Contributor

I write about the intersection of m edia, m ark eting and technology

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5 Trends That Will Drive The Future Of Technology

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Trends get a bad rap, mostly because they are often equated with fashions. Talk about trends and people immediately start imagining wafer thin models strutting down catwalks in outrageous outfits, or maybe a new shade of purple that will be long forgotten by next season.

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Yet trends can be important, especially those long in the making. If lots of smart people are willing to spend years of their lives and millions (if not billions) of dollars on an idea, theres probably something to it.

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Greg Satell

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Today, were on the brink of a new digital paradigm, where the capabilities of our technology are beginning to outstrip our own. Computers are deciding which products to stock on shelves, performing legal discovery and even winning game shows. They will soon be driving our cars and making medical diagnoses. Here are five trends that are driving it all. 1. No-Touch Interfaces Weve gotten used to the idea that computers are machines that we operate with our hands. Just as we Gen Xers became comfortable with keyboards and mouses, Todays millennial generation has learned to text at blazing speed. Each new iteration of technology has required new skills to use it proficiently. Thats why the new trend towards no-touch interfaces is so fundamentally different. From Microsofts Kinect to Apples Siri to Googles Project Glass, were beginning to expect that computers adapt to us rather than the other way around. The basic pattern recognition technology has been advancing for generations and, thanks to accelerating returns, we can expect computer interfaces to become almost indistinguishable from humans in little more than a decade.

I spent 15 years running media companies in Eastern Europe before joining the Publicis Groupe in Strategy and Innovation roles. Now I consult in the areas of digital innovation, innovation management, digital marketing and publishing, as well as offshore web and app development. You can find my website at www.DigitalTonto.com and follow me on Twitter @DigitalTonto.
The author is a Forbes contributor. The opinions expressed are those of the writer. G R E G S A T E L L S P O P U L A

What Netflix's 'House of Cards' Means For The Future Of TV 58,050 views The Blockbuster Microsoft Business That Nobody Ever Seems To Talk About 37,398 views What's Going On With Apple's Stock? 37,009 views 5 Trends That Will Drive The Future Of Technology 24,119 views The Rise of Artificial Intelligence Could Lead to Apple's Downfall 17,800 views
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2. Native Content While over the past several years technology has become more local, social and mobile, the new digital battlefield will be fought in the living room, with Netflix, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Apple and the cable companies all vying to produce a dominant model for delivering consumer entertainment. One emerging strategy is to develop original programming in order to attract and maintain a subscriber base. Netflix recently found success with their House of Cards series starring Kevin Spacey and Robin Wright. Amazon and Microsoft quickly announced their own forays into original content soon after. Interestingly, HBO, which pioneered the strategy, has been applying the trend in reverse. Their HBO GO app, which at the moment requires a cable subscription, could easily be untethered and become a direct competitor to Netflix. 3. Massively Online

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What Netflix's 'House of Cards' Means For The Future Of TV

In the last decade, massively multiplayer online games such as World of Warcraft became all the Greg Satell Contributor rage. Rather than simply play against the computer, you could play with thousands of others in real time. It can be incredibly engrossing (albeit a bit unsettling when you realize that the vicious barbarian youve been marauding around with is actually a 14 year-old girl). Now other facets of life are going massively online. Khan Academy offers thousands of modules for school age kids, Code Academy can teach a variety of programming languages to just about anybody and the latest iteration is Massively Online Open Courses (MOOCs) that offer university level instruction. (For a good example, see here). The massively online trend has even invaded politics, with President Obama recently reaching out to ordinary voters through Ask Me Anything on Reddit and Google Hangouts. 4. The Web of Things Probably the most pervasive trend is the Web of Things, where just about everything we interact with becomes a computable entity. Our homes, our cars and even objects on the street will interact with our smartphones and with each other, seamlessly. What will drive the trend in the years to come are two complementary technologies: Near Field Communication (NFC), which allows for two-way data communication with nearby devices and ultra-low power chips that can harvest energy in the environment, which will put computable entities just about everywhere you can think of. While the Web of Things is already underway, its difficult to see where it will lead us. Some applications, such as mobile payments and IBMs Smarter Planet initiative, will become widespread in just a few years. Marketing will also be transformed, as consumers will be able to seamless access digital products from advertisements in the physical world. Still, as computing ceases to be something we do seated at a desk and becomes a natural, normal way of interacting with our environment, theres really no
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5 Trends That Will Drive The Future Of Technology - Forbes

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telling what the impact will be. 5. Consumer Driven Supercomputing Everybody knows the frustration of calling to a customer service line and having to deal with an automated interface. They work well enough, but it takes some effort. After repeating yourself a few times, you find yourself wishing that you can just punch your answers in or talk to someone at one of those offshore centers with heavy accents. Therein lies the next great challenge of computing. While we used to wait for our desktop computers to process our commands and then lingered for what seemed like an eternity for web pages to load, we now struggle with natural language interfaces that just cant quite work like wed like them to. Welcome to the next phase of computing. As I previously wrote in Forbes, companies ranging from IBM to Google to Microsoft are racing to combine natural language processing with huge Big Data systems in the cloud that we can access from anywhere. These systems will know us better than our best friends, but will also be connected to the entire Web of Things as well as the collective sum of all human knowledge. The first of these, IBMs Watson, costs $3 million to build, but that price will drop to about $30,000 in ten years, well within the reach of most organizations. When Computers Disappear When computers first appeared, they took up whole rooms and required specialized training to operate them. Then they arrived in our homes and were simple enough for teenagers to become proficient in their use within a few days (although adults tended to be a little slower). Today, my three year old daughter plays with her iPad as naturally as she plays with her dolls. Now, computers themselves are disappearing. Theyre embedded invisibly into the Web of Things, into no-touch interfaces and into our daily lives. While weve long left behind loading disks into slots to get our computers to work and become used to software as a service hardware as a service is right around the corner. Thats why technology companies are becoming increasingly consumer driven, investing in things like native content to get us onboard their platform, from which we will sign onto massively online services to entertain and educate ourselves. The future of technology is, ironically, all too human.

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CALLED-OUT Expand All C omments Follow Comments + expand 2 comments Chandan Agarwala 1 month ago

It looks like technology will be used for improving human productivity, more and more.
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wesdavisforbes 1 month ago

Greg, good job. Very good.

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Greg Satell, C ontributor 1 month ago

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Thanks Wes.
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+ expand comment Bob Zukis 1 month ago

Nice post Greg, and comments. It is precisely about productivity, both labor and intellectual. Which is the really powerful opportunity. I think were at a pivot point for business and society because of the points you make, and business needs to lead with this technology. My take on the future of business because of these trends is in my just released book Social Inc. (www.bit.ly/socialinc) if interested.
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Greg Satell, C ontributor 1 month ago

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Thanks Bob. I think there is a lot of truth to that. Good luck with your book. - Greg
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+ expand comment Chris 1 month ago

Its impressive how fast innovation and disruption continues to arise. Bob, I agree completely on your point regarding the pivot point we are currently at between business, society, and even government. One important innovation that incorporates the 5 areas of tech you mentioned will be
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smart cities. When cities become completely networked and citizens use wearable computing, touch free gesturing and the web of things, the experience of living in such a place will be truly exciting. (As well as a huge opportunity for IT companies to work on building these smart cities.)
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Derek Hickey 3 weeks ago

I really enjoyed your list of trends that will drive technology. Now that we are in the midst of a digital renaissance, what effect do you think shows like House of Cards and the new season of Arrested Development will have on transitioning away from Television? http://goo.gl/sIfLQ
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Greg Satell, C ontributor 3 weeks ago

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Good Question Derek. In truth, this area is evolving so fast, I dont really know what to think. The new ecosystem thats growing out in LA is so vast and moving so quickly, I think keeping track of it would be a full time job! I did, however, provide an overview of What Netflixs House of Cards Means For The Future of TV in an earlier post. Let me know what you think. - Greg
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Lina Anastassova 2 weeks ago

Well done, Greg! Although the Internet penetration in Europe is smaller than in USA, i hope these smart cities will happen in the near future in our countries in Eastern Europe:)) It realy seems that technologies will bring more and more benefits for our social and economic life..Believe it or not, like it or not, this is the future..and i like it!
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