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FROM THE EDITOR
Member, BPA Worldwide
Chief Editor David Appleyard
Associate Editor Tildy Bayar
Consulting Editor Jackie Jones
Contributing Editors Richard Baillie, Meg Cichon,
Michael Harris, James Lawson, James Montgomery,
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Runyon, Elisa Wood, Robin Yapp
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RENEWABLE ENERGY WORLD MAY-JUNE 2013 5
I
mprovements in cost-competitiveness mean that renewable energy will
account for between 69% and 74% of new global power capacity added by
2030, new research by Bloomberg New Energy Finance shows.
This latest forecast comes despite diffcult market conditions and suggests
that annual investment in new renewables is set to rise by a factor of between
two and four or more by then. Indeed, according to Bloomberg, the most likely
scenario will see investment jump by 230%, to US$630 billion per year by
2030, driven by further improvements in the economics of wind and solar, as
well as an increase in the roll-out of despatchable renewable resources like
hydro, geothermal and biomass.
In this latest analysis their most likely outcome projects a total installed
renewable energy capacity that is 25% higher than in the previous forecast,
at 3500 GW. Under the two other scenarios investment also increases for
renewables, though it could reach anywhere between $470-$880 billion by
2030. In terms of electricity production, overall the share of renewables will
increase from 22% in 2012 to 37% in 2030, the report fnds.
Guy Turner, head of economics and commodities for BNEF noted that
renewable technologies will form the anchor of new generating capacity
additions, saying: The main driver for future growth of the renewable sector
over this timeframe is a shift from policy support to falling costs and natural
demand.
The new BNEF analysis joins recent fve-year forecasts from bodies such
as the Global Wind Energy Council and the European Photovoltaic Industry
Association (GWEC and EPIA), which largely echo the longer-term fndings but
are rather more pessimistic in the shorter term.
For example, in its outlook to 2017, GWEC has downgraded from its advanced
to its moderate scenario but remains ultimately bullish on wind, predicting that
worldwide installed capacity will pass 500 GW by 2017. For the second year
running, BTM Consult ApS also predicts a reduction in market value for the
next fve years. And it too has downgraded its wind market outlook in the short
term, though remains optimistic. EPIA reports a similar scenario for solar PV.
What these various forecasts reveal is that despite the on-going economic
challenges there is a place for renewable energy at the table and its share
of the market is one which will certainly grow over time, backed by policy
initiatives based on their environmental performance, their ease of use and
their improving economics.
Michael Liebreich, BNEF chief executive neatly summarises, explaining that
while the news today is dominated by stories of pain caused by supply side
overcapacity and cheap shale gas, this is playing out against the falling costs
of renewable energy and of the various technologies required to integrate it
into the existing energy system. Most tellingly he says, ...and falling costs win.
Thats a safe bet.
David Appleyard
Chief Editor
1305REW_5 5 5/15/13 11:45 AM
6 RENEWABLE ENERGY WORLD MAY-JUNE 2013
NEWS ANALYSIS
MAJOR MARKETS CONTINUE
TO DETERMINE WINDS PATH
WIND FORECAST
Although its forecast for 2013
involves a much more signifcant
drop in the global wind market than
last years prediction, downgrading
from its advanced to its moderate
scenario, the Global Wind Energy
Council (GWEC) is ultimately bullish
on wind, predicting that worldwide
installed capacity will pass 500 GW
by 2017.
Wind continues to grow
worldwide, with signifcant new
activity in Latin America, Africa
and Asia outside China and India.
But, says GWEC, developments
in the major markets of Europe,
China and the US are still the main
determinants of global growth.
In its annual market outlook,
GWEC cited a major drop in US
installations, slower than expected
recoveries in China and India,
and a slowdown in Europe as
contributors to its reduced forecast.
The trade body predicts that annual
installations will drop this year
by more than 11%, to just under
40 GW, but will recover sharply
in 2014 to slightly exceed 2012s
market, averaging just over 11%
annual growth from 2014 to 2017.
Average for the fve-years to 2017
is expected to be almost 7%, with
an annual total of 61 GW in 2017.
In cumulative terms, GWEC
predicts a total global capacity
of around 536 GW in 2017, with
an average annual growth rate of
about 13.7%.
THE ISSUES
Continued uncertainty over the
global economys short-term
development hangs over this
forecast, and GWEC expects the
downward pressure on turbine
prices, caused by sluggish markets
and manufacturing overcapacity,
to continue. In addition, the trade
body reports that increasing use
of local content requirements and
trade restrictions adds a signifcant
burden for investors.
Policy at the national level is the
most signifcant factor driving the
global market, the report fnds. In
the US, although the Production
Tax Credit (PTC) has been extended
for another year (and will now cover
projects breaking ground in 2013 as
well as grid-connected projects), a
downturn for 2013 may be followed
by an upswing the following year.
In Europe, recent policy swings
will affect many markets in 2013
and perhaps into 2014 but the
long-term effects are unknown,
as are the EUs post-2020 targets,
currently under discussion. GWEC
expects the Chinese market to take
longer than its government predicts
to return to signifcant growth after
its consolidation phase. And India
will probably not see the effects of
renewed policy support until 2014.
BY REGION
While new markets in Africa, Latin
America and Asia are evolving
rapidly, the report predicts that their
numbers will not have a signifcant
impact on the global picture for the
next fve years, with the exception
of Brazils burgeoning market which
GWEC expects to install impressive
capacity. The trade body points
to South Africa and Pakistan as
surprisingly productive, while it
says the new push for a renewable
energy industry in Saudi Arabia
could show substantial results
toward 2017 although it cautioned
that that is very much a wild card
at this stage. Major impact from
new markets in East and North
Africa and East and Southeast
Asia will only begin to impact the
global picture toward the end of
the decade, GWEC says. In Latin
America it predicts a proliferation of
smaller rather than major markets in
the near term.
Asia will continue to be the
worlds largest market, expected to
install about 112 GW in the next fve
years and ending 2017 with more
than 200 GW. China will recover
signifcantly, but reaching the
governments target of 18 GW by
2017 is unlikely. The report predicts
a low installation level for Japan
to 2017. South Korea is expected
to build at least 1 GW offshore,
but GWEC says this focus is at
the expense of onshore. Markets
in Mongolia, Thailand the the
Philippines will build slowly to 2017,
the report says, and Pakistan with
2.7 GW from more than 40 projects
is the star of the region.
While the report found Europe
exceeding all expectations by
installing 12.7 GW in 2012, it is
expected that 2013-2014 will see
installation levels below 2012s.
But emerging Eastern European
markets and strong second-tier
markets will take up the slack.
GWEC predicts that Europe will be
back on track by 2015.
Offshore installations in Europe
passed the 1 GW mark in 2012,
the report found, accounting for
about 10% of total installations
in the EU. GWEC expects this
trend to intensify over the next fve
years, with offshore installations
accounting for 3 GW or more per
year by 2017. Total European
installed capacity is predicted to be
about 63 GW, for a cumulative total
of more than 170 GW by end 2017.
In North America the 13th
hour reauthorisation of the US
Production Tax Credit (PTC) in
January has brightened GWECs
view of the market, although the
report cautions that installations
are expected to drop in 2013 to
less than one third of 2012 levels.
GWEC did not predict US growth
after 2014, calling it anyones
guess. Mexicos wind industry
had a record year in 2012 and
GWEC believes it will become a
third signifcant North American
market with 1 GW-1.5 GW per
year and robust growth expected
to 2017. GWEC predicts a 1.5 GW
market for Canada in 2013 and total
installations of over 52 GW in North
America to 2017, with an end fgure
of about 120 GW.
GWEC expects Brazils dramatic
market growth to continue
to dominate Latin Americas
wind sector to 2017, although
installations will be seen in smaller
Central American and Caribbean
markets and in Chile, Peru,
Venezuela, Uruguay and Argentina.
Brazil installed more than 1 GW
in 2012 and is expected to install
more than 2 GW in both 2013 and
2014, accounting for the bulk of the
regions total projected 16.5 GW in
2017.
GWEC found just over 100
MW installed in the MENA region
although there is much activity,
especially in South Africa which
is predicted to install around 400
MW annually to 2017 and beyond.
In Ethiopia, Kenya, Morocco and
Jordan new projects are also
getting underway, and GWEC
expressed its hope that Egypts
situation will stabilise in order
for its 7 GW plan to be realised.
The Saudi government also has
ambitious plans which may come
to fruition before 2017. Overall,
GWEC expects more than 8 GW of
new capacity to be installed in the
region by 2017, for a total capacity
of 10 GW.
In the Pacifc region, GWEC
predicts that Australias new
carbon legislation and its 20% by
2020 Renewable Energy Target will
help the market grow from its 2012
number of 358 MW in new installed
capacity and total capacity of
almost 2.6 GW.
The nation has a 19 GW pipeline
of which roughly one fourth should
become operational by 2017, the
report said. Overall installations in
the Pacifc region are predicted to
be slightly under 5 GW, and its total
installations will be just over 8 GW
in 2017.
Tildy Bayar
GWEC
1305REW_6 6 5/15/13 11:46 AM
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8 RENEWABLE ENERGY WORLD MAY-JUNE 2013
NEWS ANALYSIS
AS EUROPES DOMINANCE
WANES, OTHERS PICK UP PV
PV MARKET OUTLOOK
Europes role as the main driver
for the global solar photovoltaics
(PV) market is coming to an
end, concludes the European
Photovoltaic Industry Association
(EPIA) in its new report, Global
Market Outlook for Photovoltaics
2013-2017, released in early May.
The results show clearly that
Europes dominance is declining,
said the trade body. Europe
accounted for more than 70% of
the worlds new PV installations in
2011, while in 2012 this number
was around 55%, the report found.
In 2013, said EPIA, it is almost
certain that the majority of new
global PV capacity will be installed
outside Europe, and that this trend
will continue.
2012S NUMBERS
Australia expanded rapidly in
2012 with around 1 GW of new
installations. India installed 980
MW, fnally realising a part of its
huge potential. In Korea, 252 MW
were installed, a sign that the
market has restarted but it remains
at a low level, constrained by a
quota system. Taiwan reached the
100 MW mark for the frst time with
104 MW while Thailand, with a huge
pipeline of projects, commissioned
210 MW. Malaysia, where several
manufacturers are producing,
installed 22 MW. In the Americas,
Canada has expanded more slowly
than some have expected with 268
MW, and Mexico and Peru installed
several megawatts each. Brazil and
Chile, with their huge potential,
havent commissioned many
systems yet. In the Middle East
region, Israel remained the only
country with a signifcant market,
while Saudi Arabia showed some
interest in PV development. The
Turkish market remains quite low
despite its potential.
EUROPE ON THE WANE
The report found that an estimated
31 GW of new PV capacity was
commissioned worldwide in 2012,
roughly the same amount reported
in 2011s results. But there is a
key difference this time around. In
2011, 22.4 GW of new capacity was
installed in Europe, while in 2012
that number fell to 17.2 GW while
vigorous growth in other markets
took up the slack. Last years
decline was due largely to the end
of 2011s record-setting Italian PV
boom, EPIA found, while the rest of
the market stabilised.
The report termed the future of
the European market uncertain.
Drastic cuts to some support
programmes will push their markets
down in 2013, EPIA said, even
though emerging markets in Europe
could offset any major decline.
Given these new conditions, EPIA
said the short-term prospects for
European markets are stable (in
the best case) or declining. Without
support for PV from policymakers,
the trade body fears the transition
could be quite painful over the next
two or three years but with policy
support, it said, the market could
stabilise in 2013 and grow again
from 2014.
GLOBAL GROWTH
Going forward, the forces driving
the global PV market will be in
countries such as China, the US,
Japan and India, EPIA said, noting
that the PV market is becoming
truly global. Outside Europe, it
noted, the market is well-balanced
in terms of total installed capacity:
three countries with huge potential
lead the pace, followed by an
emerging secondary market.
Except for the 2011-2012 Australian
boom, EPIA said the market in most
countries remains under control.
The report found that new non-
European installations accounted
for 13.9 GW in 2012, compared to 8
GW in 2011. China took frst place
with a probable 5 GW, followed by
the US with 3.3 GW and Japan with
around 2 GW. All are expected to
continue growing in 2013, although
EPIA expects China to be one
of the two top markets this year,
rather than necessarily number
one. EPIA expects the fastest PV
growth to 2017 to continue in China
and India, followed by Southeast
Asia, Latin America and the MENA
countries. But in the reports
business-as-usual scenario, growth
expected outside Europe is unlikely
to compensate fast enough for the
European markets slowdown. Even
in this scenario, though, EPIA says
the global market could reach 48
GW in 2017, while under a policy-
driven scenario that number could
be as high as 84 GW.
THE ISSUES
Factors such as the approaching
competitiveness of PV compared
to other electricity sources, the
changing nature of electricity
markets, trade conficts and the
turmoil facing the PV industry
due to consolidation are already
affecting the market outlook for the
near future, EPIA cautioned.
In 2012, the report found, the
precipitous drop in PV system
prices in all markets triggered new
installations that compensated
for Italys decline. But given the
manufacturing sectors current
uncertainty, module price stability is
an ongoing issue with implications
for drops in system prices and the
opening of new markets. Crucially,
EPIA said, The link between price
decrease and the unlocking of
new markets is the key to market
development. But prices were
pushed even lower in 2012 due to
overcapacity and existing markets
inability to absorb more PV.
According to EPIA, market
evolution to 2017 will depend
largely on European developments
and policymakers ability to
maintain market conditions at
acceptable levels. With policy
support, EPIA said the European
market could stabilise at around 16
GW17 GW in 2013 before growing
slowly to around 25 GW28 GW
in 2017. The new markets could
help ensure both signifcant growth
even as soon as this year, and
robust market development in the
following years. EPIA expects the
Asia-Pacifc region (minus China)
to represent between 10 GW and
20 GW each year until 2017. China
alone could add 10 GW annually, as
announced by Chinese authorities.
THE NEXT FIVE YEARS
EPIA reminds us that 2012s more
than 100 GW in cumulative global
PV capacity represents a major
achievement. Depending on the
conditions of the reports business-
as-usual scenario, the 200 GW
mark could be reached between
2014 and 2016, while in the policy
driven scenario EPIA believes that
more than 420 GW of PV could be
connected to the grid over the next
fve years.
Tildy Bayar
Global annual PV market forecast under business-as-usual and
policy-driven market scenarios to 2017
EPIA
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10 RENEWABLE ENERGY WORLD MAY-JUNE 2013
NEWS ANALYSIS
ILUC CALCULATIONS AT ISSUE
BIOFUELS POLICY
Debate is brewing over biofuels
policy ahead of Junes G8 summit
in Northern Ireland. A report by anti-
poverty group ActionAid has stirred
growing calls for the Group of 8
wealthiest nations (Canada, Russia,
France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the
UK and the US) to reconsider their
biofuel policies.
ActionAid has highlighted
concerns that the EUs 10%
renewable fuel target is increasing
the use of biofuels made from
crops that could be used for food,
driving up prices and giving rise
to agricultural practices that emit
more greenhouses gases.
PROPOSED EU CHANGES
In response to these concerns,
in October 2012 the European
Commission proposed limiting
the percentage of biofuel that is
derived from food crops or causes
indirect land-use change (ILUC)
a measure of unintended carbon
emissions resulting from the use
of land for biofuel crops to, at
most, 50% of its 10% renewable
transport fuels quota. The other
50% would come from second-
generation biofuels (which are
not derived from food crops). The
proposal is currently being debated
in the European Parliament.
French MEP Corrinne Lepage
has proposed that Europes
restrictions should be tightened.
She wants to apply ILUC factors
earlier and making them count
toward the 6% greenhouse gas
reduction obligation outlined in the
EUs fuel quality directive.
Under the ECs proposal, ILUC
impacts would be monitored under
the fuel quality directive, but would
not change the way the obligation
is met. Lepages proposal would
make up for any potential proft loss
affecting frst-generation biofuel
producers by exempting some
biofuel an amount equivalent
to 2010 levels from ILUC limits.
Producers of biodiesel would have
until 2020 to comply.
We have to take into account
investments that have already
been made, Lepage told the EU
Environment Committee. Biofuel
companies have said the EUs
current policy encouraged them to
make investments which a policy
reversal could render useless.
The environment committee will
vote on the proposal on 10 July,
followed by a full vote by Parliament
in November.
LEGAL CHALLENGES
Some have said that the EUs
proposal could result in legal action
from the WTO. Unica, the Brazilian
sugar cane industry association,
called on a legal expert who
identifed similarities between the
ECs proposal and several WTO
cases that the US has lost. Even
if the proposal is not discriminatory
in its language, it is creating a
de facto trade discrimination.
It gives the advantage to non-
food biofuels, which are nearly
exclusively produced in Europe
and the US. Other countries do not
have the technology and would be
excluded, Jung-ui Sul, a member
of global law frm Sidley Austins
International Trade and Arbitration
Group, told Unica.
Fredrik Erixon, director of the
European Centre for International
Political Economy, agreed, calling
the proposed reform discriminatory
on the grounds that it will favour
biofuels produced in Europe. ILUC
factors are not reliable enough
evidence to justify de facto trade
discrimination, he said.
An ILUC factor simply cannot
be used for diligent policy, Erixon
said, for the simple reason that
it is impossible to make reliable,
transparent, evidence-based
assessments on ILUC emissions
for a particular crop. Many attempts
have been made to model the ILUC
emission effects, but they come
to profoundly different results.
That is not very surprising it is
impossible to manage so many
different and changing factors that
constitute the derivative effects of
one companys decision to use a
particular feedstock to produce a
fuel, he said.
Erixon also foresees European
legislation violating WTO rules.
Foreign competitors to biofuels
produced in Europe could be
discriminated [against] even
if the producer can prove it is
friendlier to the environment or
the climate than those biofuels
that get the green light from the
EU, he explained. And since such
discrimination would introduce a
regulation with effect on a direct
competitive relationship between
foreign and domestic product,
it is highly unlikely that it would
be approved even if it would be
possible to make a reliable estimate
on ILUC emissions. Countries will
not be allowed departure from
WTO rules on non-discrimination
when a discriminatory action so
clearly would alter a competitive
relationship.
INDUSTRY REACTION
The biofuels industry says it is
developing advanced biofuels
that do not compete with food.
The European Renewable Ethanol
Association (ePure) points out that
ethanol uses post-food residues for
fuel production.
Rob Vierhout, ePURE secretary
general, said: The biofuel debate
now needs to move beyond
stereotypes to a more nuanced
discussion. Europes policymakers
recognise the importance and
diversity of this industry. Indeed,
the report by Lepage puts ideas
on the table that will contribute to
the reduction of greenhouse gas
emissions for transport in Europe.
But more needs to be done, notably
in the development of advanced
biofuel markets.
Without a healthy market for
conventional renewable ethanol and
without a longer-term perspective
for the industry, he continued,
the necessary investments into
advanced biofuel are unlikely to
take place.
Copa-Cogeca, the European
farmers and agri-cooperatives
trade body, has called for ILUC
effects and ILUC factors to be
removed from both directives,
and for existing production
facilities to be protected through
a grandfathering clause. They also
ask that the EU defne a separate,
mandatory objective higher than
10% for advanced biofuels.
Copa-Cogeca says it
encourages the protection of
carbon-rich soils and biodiversity
in third countries through bilateral
agreements, fnancial support and
legal advice. It argues that this
approach would be more effective
than ILUC factors and capping the
use of conventional biofuels, both
of which would have a detrimental
effect on European production and
would not necessarily mitigate the
phenomenon of land use change in
third countries, it says.
Saying that the food vs. fuel
debate is too simplistic, Copa-
Cogeca stresses that stakeholders
have not been consulted about the
ECs proposal. But the group says
the existing European target of
10% renewable energy sources in
the transport sector is still realistic,
but only if conventional biofuels are
produced in a way that does not
prejudice food production.
Tildy Bayar
EUROPEAN COMMUNITY
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12 RENEWABLE ENERGY WORLD MAY-JUNE 2013
NEWS ANALYSIS
UP TO 67.9% EU DUTIES TO
BE IMPOSED ON CHINESE PV
SOLAR TRADE
In early May 2013 the European
Commission decided to
recommend duties on Chinese solar
panels of up to 67.9%, according to
reports from multiple sources.
The Wall Street Journal reported
that the tariffs will affect more
than 100 companies, and will
be implemented at a range from
37.3% to 67.9% at an average of
47.6%. Companies will face tariffs
as follows:
Suntech and subsidiaries: 48.6%
LDK Solar: 55.9%
Trina Solar: 51.5%
A Solar: 58.7%
Companies that cooperated with
the investigation will likely be hit
with a 47.6% tariff, while those that
did not will face the top rate tariff.
China strongly opposes the move
and is calling for extended dialogue
to resolve the situation, according
to Bloomberg. The Alliance for
Affordable Solar Energy (AFASE),
a coalition of over 500 European
solar companies, also expressed
its concern in a statement, claiming
that punitive tariffs will cause
irreversible damage to the entire
European photovoltaic value chain.
Last November the US
handed down anti-dumping and
countervailing duties, a move which
presumably provided momentum to
the European plans.
The ECs preliminary decision
on antidumping was scheduled
for early June, followed by a
preliminary ruling on anti-subsidies
in August. Both are now expected
to be fnalised in December.
In recent weeks the EC has
further tightened the screws
on Chinese solar imports, frst
requiring registration of panels, and
more recently initiating anti-subsidy
and anti-dumping investigations
into solar glass from China. The
latter, spawned by a complaint
by EU ProSun Glass, is a distinct
investigation from that covering
Chinese solar panels, and is said
to be not formally affliated with the
SolarWorld-led EU ProSun coalition
which launched the broader solar
complaint a year ago.
Not all of Europe is united in
this solar dispute. The Solar Trade
Association (STA) has expressed
deep concerns and overwhelming
opposition in an open letter to
European Trade Commissioner
Karel De Gucht. The impact
on employment and EU value
added will far outstrip any impact
that the duties may have on EU
photovoltaic producers, particularly
because these producers are
struggling with structural issues
that cannot be effciently addressed
through the imposition of duties,
they say. Duties at any level are
already having a signifcant impact,
dwarfng any possible beneft for
European solar producers and
setting back the objective for grid
parity for years.
Meanwhile, China and France
have been formally discussing
broader economic relations and the
cooperation of common interest,
including having the French urge
the EU to cautiously utilise trade
remedy measures regarding the PV
investigations.
And China has repeatedly
suggested it might retaliate with its
own probe into US and European
polysilicon suppliers. I continue
to not understand the logic of
a retaliatory Chinese penalty on
silicon imports, said Thomas
Gutierrez, president and CEO of
GT Advanced Technologies. China
cant support itself in high-quality
production of polysilicon. And
if they put tariffs on polysilicon,
theyre going to increase the cost
of their already proftless wafer and
cell manufacturing industry, he
said in a statement.
Among the arguments lobbed
in the EU/China trade dispute is
the issue of jobs at risk, as it was
in the US/China dispute. A report
earlier this year suggested nearly
a quarter of a million jobs might be
at stake across several European
countries, potentially wiping out
18.4-27.2 billion of economic
activity. Conversely, Chong
Quan, deputy international trade
representative with Chinas Ministry
of Commerce, has suggested that
some 400,000 Chinese workers
could be affected by Europes solar
trade decision.
Both types of trade disputes
have dangerous consequences
for the overall global market. If
domestic requirements are forced
to be abandoned and incentive
policies changed radically, that
would change demand in specifc
countries, explained Michael
Barker, senior analyst at Solarbuzz.
Trade issues are big but PV
demand is driven more by local
policy and regulatory movements
than by cost, Barker said. As
costs come down, so do incentive
policies even down to the city
level. While the cost portion is
certainly very important, its also
what countries are doing at the
local level to make it easier, or
harder, for PV to be competitive
or get ample returns, Barker said.
Local regulations and policies will
be the ones enabling end-market
demand, or hindering it.
Solar entrepreneur, consultant
and Carbon War Room
board member Jigar Shah,
called the antidumping duties
counterproductive. He said: No
matter how these cases are decided,
neither the US nor Europe will get
a boost in local manufacturing.
The Chinese have already started
to ramp down industrial support
(as have Ontario and Germany).
Many Chinese manufacturers
will go out of business, but even
after that we will still have 20 GW-
30 GW of oversupply. Another
country will step in and try to buy
the manufacturing market share
at a very low cost, and the cycle
will repeat itself. If the US and
Germany want to develop local
manufacturing, Shah said, they
have to do more than ask for it and
penalise the Chinese.
On 8 May, as the proposed
duties were announced, the frst
Global Solar Summit opened in
Milan. At the opening session a
debate fared up on the EU-China
trade dispute with speeches by
Rhone Resch of SEIA, Reinhold
Buttgereit of EPIA, Milan Nitzsche
of EU ProSun, Paulette Vander
Schueren of AFASE, and Guangbin
Sun of the Chinese Chamber of
Commerce.
Buttgereit, EPIA general
secretary, said: We cannot
ignore the major trade confict
now underway, but nor can we
overlook the fact that the growth
of renewables will increasingly be
achieved outside Europe, driven by
the Asian economies. The golden
period for solar energy is not over,
but we need rules.
EU ProSun and AFASE took
opposing positions. China is
burning up millions of euros in
Europe and is destroying the
best solar industry sector in the
world due to price dumping, said
Nitzsche, EU ProSun chairman.
But AFASEs Schueren,
countered: We will be risking a fall
of 85% in orders, explaining that
falling prices are solars destiny.
This was also the view of
Guangbin Sun, general secretary
of the solar division of the Chinese
Chamber of Commerce, who said,
If exports from China are impeded,
the consequences will fall on
the costs of European products.
Nevertheless, we are willing to
collaborate and maintain a dialogue
in order to bring our production in
line with market demand.
James Montgomery, additional
reporting Tildy Bayar
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14 RENEWABLE ENERGY WORLD MAY-JUNE 2013
NEWS ANALYSIS
SOLAR CHP INNOVATIONS
OFFER EFFICIENCY KICK
SOLAR THERMAL HYBRIDS
In late April IBM announced a
new partnership with Airlight
energy, ETH Zurich and Interstate
University of Applied Sciences
Buchs NTV. The group won a
US$2.4 million grant from the Swiss
Commission for Technology and
Innovation to develop a low-cost
high-concentration photovoltaic
thermal (HCPVT) system.
The system uses mirrors to
concentrate the sun 2000 times.
According to Bruno Michel, manager
of advanced thermal packaging at
IBM Research in Zurich, the system
is built on trackers that are made
from low-cost molded concrete for
the lowest base cost possible. A
parabolic dish made from mirrors
is mounted on the tracking system,
which refects the suns rays onto
several microchannel liquid-cooled
receivers that contain hundreds
of triple-junction PV cells, which
amount to 25 kW of capacity.
Beneath the cells, a liquid
composed of antifreeze and
corrosion deterrent is piped mere
centimetres behind the cells to
absorb heat, which is enough to also
drive a water desalination process.
The coolant maintains the cells
at almost the same temperature
for a solar concentration of 2000
times, and can keep them at safe
temperatures up to a concentration
of 5000 times.
We reach a 25% system-level
electrical effciency (and about
30% chip level effciency) with a
PV junction temperature of 100-
105C and a coolant temperature
of 90C, explained Michel. The
overall recovery effciency is 80%-
85%. We lose (less than) 15% in
the primary optics. Losses in the
secondary optics are captured as
heat and contribute to the 50%
heat recovery.
The system also provides
cooling through a thermal-driven
absorption chiller. Absorption
chillers, with water as working fuid,
can replace compression chillers,
which stress electrical grids in hot
climates and contain working fuids
that are harmful to the ozone layer,
said Michel.
Researchers hope this device
will be an all-in-one answer in areas
that are in dire need of low-cost
electricity, heating and cooling,
and water purifcation, such as the
Middle East. According to IBM,
the system could provide 30 to
40 litres of drinkable water per m
2
of receiver area per day, while still
generating 2 kWh of electricity per
day. Thats a little less than half
the amount of water the average
person needs per day according
to the United Nations, but a large
installation could provide enough
water for a town.
The research group believes
that using low-cost materials
for the major base components,
manufacturing the small high-tech
components in Switzerland and
assembling the device in the region
where it will be installed will have
huge benefts.
This leads to a win-win
situation where the system is cost
competitive and jobs are created in
both regions, says Andrea Pedretti,
chief technology offcer at Airlight
Energy. The design of the system
is elegantly simple.
Solar cogeneration produces
both electricity and thermal
energy. Solar photovoltaic (PV)
systems convert the suns rays
into electricity at typically less than
20% effciency, and the heat given
off by the system goes to waste.
Cogeneration captures that heat
and applies it, in this case, to water
purifcation.
These systems boast some
major benefts. During the US east
coasts battering by Superstorm
Sandy, many praised solar energy
systems for weathering the storm
and providing ongoing emergency
power. Unlike other generator
systems that ultimately had a set
amount of power available until
the fuel ran dry, solar was able to
produce power indefnitely (there
were several reports of kind citizens
bringing solar energy to several
communities to provide power for
charging phones, etc).
Emergency situations aside, solar
cogeneration advocates argue that,
on a typical day, renewable systems
will give you the most for your
money. Compared to the volatile
fossil fuel market that accounts for
rising utility costs, solar promises a
stable, clean source of energy for
as long as you own the system.
And according to a recent report
from Pike Research, Residential
Combined Heat and Power,
residential CHP has the ability to
aid aging transmission systems
in many countries where there are
growing numbers of blackouts and
brownouts: its distributed nature
makes the transmission systems
less vulnerable to outages on the
centralised power grid.
NEW INNOVATIONS
One company at the forefront of
the residential and commercial
solar combined heat and power
industry, Cogenra, is now breaking
into the cooling market and recently
announced that it is providing
cooling solutions on an international
scale for Johnson Controls with
their YORK absorption chillers.
Cogenra is frst and foremost
a CPV company, said Mani
Thothadri, senior director. Until
now we have been delivering this
heat as hot water. We would size
ourselves to a customers hot water
load. We are expanding to solar
cooling, so we will be sizing to their
cooling demand, which is usually
pretty massive.
Cogenras system is composed
of silicon PV panels that are
assembled on a single-axis
tracker. Attached to this system is
a parabolic trough with fat mirrors
that concentrate the sun 10 times
to heat up the panels, and a water
chamber that captures the heat.
The newer cooling absorption
chillers integrate into most building
components, according to Gilad
Almogy, CEO and founder of
Cogenra. So instead of just using
about 15%-20% of the suns
energy, Cogenra systems use
about 75% by taking advantage of
the waste heat.
Solar cooling offers a compelling
value proposition for building
owners by reducing both peak time
energy costs and demand charges,
said Almogy.
And, according to Mani, Cogenra
is not stopping there. He says the
company is currently working on
a storage solution to store heat
generated in thermal storage
tanks. This stored energy can then
potentially be utilised for electricity
production during the hours of
darkness or in overcast conditions,
enabling dispatchability,
addressing PV intermittency and
24/7 energy security, he said.
Meg Cichon
The distributed nature of combined heat and power (CHP) systems
makes them less vulnerable to outages on the centralised grid.
COGENRA
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1305REW_15 15 5/15/13 11:47 AM
16 RENEWABLE ENERGY WORLD MAY-JUNE 2013
NEWS ANALYSIS
FEARS GROW OVER FUTURE
OF EU EMISSIONS TRADING
CARBON TRADING
Prices for carbon credits under
the European Unions Emissions
Trading Scheme (EU ETS) recently
plunged to new depths and to less
than a tenth of their peak valuation
of 30/tonne, seen in the heady
distant days of spring 2006.
The cause: a vote by the
European Parliament to reject
proposals on shoring-up the price
by means of holding back some
900 million tonnes of allowances
until later. In Europe the industrial
energy demand slump has brought
with it a glut of credits, and the
so-called backloading proposals
would have seen allowances from
2013-2015 postponed until the
2019-2020 period.
Rejecting the proposals by a
narrow margin of 334-315, the
European Parliament stopped sort
of fatly rejecting the plans, instead
referring them back to the lead ENVI
Committee for reconsideration.
Indeed, offcially, the European
Parliament still does not yet have a
position on the proposals.
Responding to the vote,
European Commissioner for
Climate Action, Connie Hedegaard,
commented: The Commission of
course regrets that the European
Parliament has not approved the
back-loading proposal. However,
it is worth noting than when it
was suggested in the second
vote that the Parliament fnalised
its rejection right away, this was
not supported. The proposal will
now go back to the Parliaments
Environment Committee for further
consideration. Europe needs a
robust carbon market to meet our
climate targets and spur innovation.
The Commission remains convinced
that back-loading would help restore
confdence in the EU ETS in the
short term until we decide on more
structural measures. We will now
refect on the next steps to ensure
that Europe has strong EU ETS.
Naturally enough, the renewables
industry reacted with consternation.
For example, Rmi Gruet, Senior
Climate Advisor of the European
Wind Energy Association (EWEA),
said of the vote: This makes the
ETS irrelevant in Europes bid to
reduce the use of fossil fuels. The
carbon price will continue having
no impact on investment decisions
in the power sector.
Electricity industry trade
group Eurelectric described the
development as a dangerous set-
back for the internal energy market
and for EU carbon goals. They
further warned that only urgent
action by the Commission to put
forward structural proposals on
ETS can now stop Member States
from each legislating their own
alternative policies: 27 different
carbon foor prices, coal taxes,
carbon taxes.
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NEWS ANALYSIS
With uncertainty over future
climate and energy policy
frameworks already all but stalling
market-based investments in
Europe, the consensus option
appears to be that the rejection of
backloading inevitably increases
this uncertainty signifcantly.
More signifcant are perhaps the
wider implications for the future
of carbon trading. In a major step
towards the frst full inter-continental
linking of emission trading systems,
the European Commission and
Australia have agreed that the EU
ETS and the Australian emissions
trading scheme should be fully
linked by mid-2018. There will be
an interim link from 1 July 2015,
allowing Australian businesses to
use EU allowances to help cover
their emissions under the Australian
scheme.
The crisis within the EU ETS
scheme, which covers some 11,000
sites, suggests that any link would
have dire repercussions for clean
energy development.
Australian Federal Treasurer
Wayne Swan has reportedly moved
to calm these fears, apparently
saying its a folly to draw
conclusions about the Australian
carbon price in years to come from
a European spot market price. The
Australian Treasury is forecasting
a carbon price of A$29 (22.2) a
tonne in 2015.
However, energy and carbon
advisory frm, RepuTex forecasts
that Australias carbon price will
fall dramatically as a result of the
tumbling EU ETS prices.
Executive Director, Hugh
Grossman said: The failed vote
in the EU ETS will fow through to
the Australian market straight away
when trading commences. We have
seen price expectations in Australia
drop from an average of A$14 (11)
for fnancial year 2016 through 2020
should the EU vote have passed,
back to an average of A$2.70 (2)
now that reform has failed.
RepuTex notes that prices
may fall even lower as Australian
companies look to cheap
international markets to offset their
domestic obligations at very low
cost. In year one we are likely to
see Australian companies swoop
on cheap international offsets,
meaning that the local carbon price
could fall as low as A$1.30 (1) until
demand for domestic units catches
up to the regulated supply.
From that point we expect
the European price will drive the
Australian market, however with
slightly lower Australian emissions
being forecast, that demand may
not be as strong as the market
previously expected, which will
keep prices low initially.
Nonetheless, longer term
structural reforms remain possible
in Europe, which may fow through
to Australia later, Grossman
believes: We have never viewed
the recent EU backloading proposal
as anything more than a temporary
fx it was always designed to be a
stepping stone to broader structural
reform in the EU ETS.
Now that the temporary solution
has failed, all eyes turn to the EU
Commission as it looks to lock
down a new emissions reduction
target through to 2030. Should
agreement be reached before 2015
as was determined in Durban we
would see European carbon prices
recover, and that recovery would
fow though to Australia, however
we would not expect prices to rise
in the near term.
In an open letter, ministers from
nine European member states, have
set out the actions they want to see
from the European Commission
this year to reform Europes ailing
carbon trading initiative.
Backed by the environment and
energy ministers from Denmark,
Finland, France, Germany, the
Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden,
Slovenia, and the UK, the joint
statement calls for a resolution
to the backloading proposals by
July this year at the latest and
for the European Commission to
produce a legislative proposal to
deliver proper structural reform
to the EU ETS by the end of this
year.
The document says they remain
deeply concerned that the ETS
as currently designed cannot
provide the price signals needed to
stimulate the low carbon investment
needed now because the supply of
allowances substantially outstrips
demand, leading to a very low
carbon price. This also threatens
the credibility of carbon markets.
As if to heap yet more pressure
on Brussels, measurements
from a US National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (Noaa)
site on the Mauna Loa volcano in
Hawaii have recorded atmospheric
carbon dioxide concentrations of
more than 400 ppm, widely seen as
a symbolic threshold.
As REW goes to press,
discussions are due between
national governments and the EC
on backloading plans.
David Appleyard
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1305REW_17 17 5/15/13 11:47 AM
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1305REW_18 18 5/15/13 11:47 AM
THE DEAL
RENEWABLE ENERGY WORLD MAY-JUNE 2013 19
I
n late April, concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) manufacturer and
solar project developer Soitec announced that it had fnalised
a bond that will be used to fnance a portion of its 44 MWp
CPV plant in Touwsrivier, South Africa. The bond, worth some
ZAR1 billion (approximately US$85 million) is the frst publicly-listed
project development bond ever issued to fnance a CPV solar power
plant, and only the third bond issued to fnance any type of solar
installation worldwide.
Issuing a bond that will list on the bond market allows institutional
investors like pension fund managers or asset managers to invest in
it and potentially receive a stable return over a fxed period of time.
THE PLAYERS
Solar projects are typically fnanced through a mix of debt and equity.
Debt investors get their money back plus interest, and equity investors
get a share of the project and make money through any proft that
the project generates. Equity investors in some countries can also
take advantage of tax credits or other fnancial incentives offered by
governments that support renewable energy development. For this
deal, said Gaetan Borgers, executive vice president of Soitecs solar
division, the company issued the bond to cover the debt portion of
the project and partners have already been identifed to fnance the
equity portion.
This was Soitec Solars frst foray into the project fnance bond
market. We decided to try a bond because we thought it would
The frst use of a bond to fnance a solar project marks
many frsts for the solar industry and could prove to be a
new model for project fnancing in the near future, fnds
Jennifer Runyon.
COULD UTILITY-
SCALE SOLAR
FINANCING WITH
BONDS BE THE
NEW NORMAL?
Soitecs pilot facility in the Aquila Private Game Reserve on the
Western Cape. The pilot plant is next to the future Touwsrivier
power plant. SOITEC
TheDEAL
enable us to spread the investment on a larger pool of investors,
said Borgers of the decision to use a bond to cover the debt.
Borgers explained that Soitec worked with a number of partners
when developing and issuing the bond. Three banks Trident
Capital, Deloitte & Touche, and Standard Bank of South Africa
served as advisors for developing the bond, and in December 2012
the bond received a favourable rating from Moodys, indicating that
it was investment grade and effectively giving it the green light to
enter the bond market. Then, in the spring of 2013, Standard Bank
of South Africa formally issued the bond, and Deloitte and Trident
marketed it to investment houses and money managers in hope of
convincing them to invest, said Borgers. The bonds were placed
with a diverse pool of South African institutional investors, pension
funds and asset managers, said Kimon Boyiatjis, chief investment
offcer at Trident in a statement. Soitecs role in the process was to
answer questions about the project itself. Today the bond is listed on
the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and is fully subscribed.
THE PROJECT
The 44 MWp Touwsrivier project will be located on South Africas
Western Cape. Borgers said site preparation has begun for the
project fencing and ground preparation for now and some
modules and systems have already been shipped to the site. Soitec
will source the 1500 modules that the project will require from both
its German and US manufacturing centres. Borgers said the frst
modules should be in the feld by June of this year. Group Five is the
EPC partner on the project.
The project is being developed under South Africas Renewable
Energy Independent Power Producer (REIPP) programme, which
seeks to assist developers in bringing some 3725 MW of new
renewable energy capacity to South Africa to meet the governments
target of generating 10,000 GWh of electricity with renewable energy
resources annually.
The Touwsrivier project has a signed 20-year power purchase
agreement (PPA) with Eskom, South Africas state-owned energy
utility. Under the terms of the REIPP, the PPA will be supported by
the South African Department of Energy in the event that Eskom
does not meet the terms of the PPA.
Scheduled for completion by June 2014, Touwsrivier will be the
largest CPV plant in the western world once fnished.
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THE DEAL
RENEWABLE ENERGY WORLD MAY-JUNE 2013 21
THE SIGNIFICANCE
Soitecs bond, issued by CPV Power Plant No1 Bond SPV (RF) Ltd,
an affliate of Soitec Solar GmbH, marks many frsts for the solar
industry and could prove to be a new model for project fnancing in
the near future. It is the frst use of a bond for a CPV project, the frst
use of a bond to fnance a solar project in South Africa, the frst use
of a bond for project fnance by Soitec Solar Gmbh. It is also only
the third time a bond has ever been used to fnance any solar project
worldwide.
The new fnancing mechanism couldnt have come soon
enough. The solar power plant market is the fastest growing market
segment in the PV industry, said Borgers, and since traditional
project fnancing relies on just one or two banks, Borgers believes
that, until now, market growth has been limited. Solar bonds for this
type of development, particularly in areas of high irradiance, make
good fnancial sense. If you look at a PV power plant or a CPV power
plant, especially in countries that enjoy a large amount of sun, the
cash fow projections are extremely predictable, explained Borgers.
So we think that this is perfectly aligned to the requirements to have
a successful bond, he said.
With predicable cash fows and booming global solar
development, Borgers said he really isnt sure why more solar
projects are not already being funded this way. He surmises that
investors probably just need to get more familiar with solar projects.
Once they understand that [solar farms] are perfectly reliable power
plants, there is no reason that a bond could not be used, he said.
We think that it actually opens a large amount of capital and so it is
a very attractive thing as we move forward.
Ompi Aphane, deputy director for general energy policy
and planning for South Africas Department of Energy, is thrilled
that Soitec was successful in using the bond market for project
development. It opens an entirely new feld of project funding to the
solar industry in South Africa, he said in a statement. We hope that
this will contribute to the creation of a new pool of fnancial resources
that can support the South African governments ambitious plans for
renewable energy.
THE OPPORTUNITY
Beyond South Africa, anywhere there is an active bond market
and a strong solar resource, solar project fnancing with bonds is
a viable path, said Borgers. He mentioned the US and Europe as
good candidates for this type of transaction and stated that other
institutions are keen to work with Soitec on a similar model. Since
we released our announcement we have been approached by other
banks that have said, Well, why dont you try to do that [issue a
bond] for another project with us, he said. And so I think that its
going to catch the attention of the fnancial market.
Financial instruments that bring more capital to the solar market
are exactly what the industry needs. With module prices at record
lows, developers are actively seeking capital to execute new solar
projects in regions all over the world. Issuing bonds like Soitecs to
cover a portion of the project could be a good way to get more
money into the sector, and institutions across the world are starting
to take note.
For example, in the UK, Foresight Group recently announced that
it had issued a 60 million ($93 million) solar bond, which has been
used to refnance its existing portfolio of solar assets located in Kent,
Somerset and Wiltshire. This is the largest solar bond to date in the
UK and is a further endorsement of the low-risk profle of operating
solar power plants, according to Foresight Group. The company
said it plans to deploy another 250 million ($387 million) into new
large-scale ground-mounted solar projects in the UK over the next
year. We are fnding a growing appetite from both institutional and
retail investors who see solar power as a maturing asset class with
an attractive risk profle, said Ricardo Pineiro, investment manager
at Foresight.
Warren Buffets MidAmerican Energy Holdings issued its frst
utility-scale solar project bond in March 2012 to help fnance the
550 MW Topaz Solar Farm in San Luis Obispo County, California.
MidAmerican Energy Holdings initially issued bonds worth
$700 million, then upped them to $850 million once they proved
popular. One month later the holding company announced plans
to issue another bond because the frst one was oversubscribed
by $400 million. The bonds, which will reach maturity in September
2039, will yield a 5.75% return rate.
THE RISKS
Soitecs solar bond has an 11% fxed return and reaches maturity in
2029. Moodys gave the Soitec bond a rating of Baa2.za. According
to Tom McKelvey, a retired money manager who worked for UBS
managing large corporate US pension funds and sovereign Middle
Eastern funds, Baa2 is just above a C rating, with C being junk.
Its a low rating but its still considered investable, he said. Its
also important to note that ratings differ from market to market, so
comparing a rating designed for the Johannesburg stock market
with one designed for the US market isnt apples to apples.
According to McKelvey, high-yield bonds are inviting to money
managers because of the potential returns they offer. But he
cautioned that Soitecs 11% return and Baa2.za rating indicates that,
while attractive, it defnitely comes with some risk. In this day and
age, when interest rates are so low, money managers would be very
interested in a bond offering an 11% return, he said. But the risks
are real. Soitecs CPV technology has never been used in a project
as big as this. And the company could always go out of business,
McKelvey said or the equipment could fail, O&M costs could be
greater than anticipated, or any number of other unforeseen issues
could arise, which means an investment in the Soitec bond is one
that McKelvey would call speculative.
Depending on the type of fund that a money manager is running,
said McKelvey, she or he might buy enough Soitec bonds to make
up to 3% of the total holding. If it was well-known to be a speculative
fund, I might go as high as 5%, he added. I would probably take a
chance that it might make it, he concluded.
As the solar industry continues to mature and investors become
more comfortable with solar power projects, expect to see greater
use of solar bonds for project development in 2013 and beyond.
Jennifer Runyon is Managing Editor of
RenewableEnergyWorld.com.
e-mail: rew@pennwell.com
This article is available on-line. To comment on it or forward it to
a colleague, visit: www.RenewableEnergyWorld.com
1305REW_21 21 5/15/13 11:48 AM
22 RENEWABLE ENERGY WORLD MAY-JUNE 2013
The European Commission is debating interim climate
and renewables targets
EU OBSERVER
How should Europe structure
energy policy for 2030?
Efforts must be especially made in creating certainty for
investors, reducing the administrative burden and increasing
clarity in planning, said the European Commission in opening its
consultation on a European climate and energy framework for
2030. How should such a framework be structured to address your
sectors current concerns, and which concerns are most important
for promoting your sectors future development?
To add your voice to the discussion, visit www.RenewableEnergyWorld.com.
T
H
E
B
IG
Q
U
E
S
T
IO
N
When it comes to discussing
future European energy
policy frameworks, the City of
London has a canny ability of
switching off. The systems too
bureaucratic, theyll argue, and
theres limited scope to exert
real infuence.
And for that reason, many
of those within the square mile
will focus instead on more
immediate opportunities.
Only the thing is, now that
the renewable energy market
is beginning to fnd its feet, its
this early stage opportunistic
attitude that is changing.
As the markets look for
greater stability and more long-
term growth, its inevitable that
in order to achieve these new
levels of industry assurance,
certainty from government
policy must be encouraged.
Any future European policy
framework must provide clear,
transparent targets, backed by
clear and transparent economic
support. Policies need to be set
early, promoted and reinforced
on a country-by-country
basis and carefully managed
throughout the lifecycle of the
economic incentive.
Whats more, and with a
market like offshore wind in
particular, its worth considering
a longer term shift away from
specifc steadfast calendar
timeframes and instead towards
wider measurements and
parameters that evaluate policy
success based either in pure
capacity terms or alternatively,
pegged against individual
country targets, market
percentages and sector goals.
Whatever the case, as the
new framework takes shape, its
imperative that a close working
relationship is established early
on between policy makers,
developers, investors and
fnanciers, in order to ensure
that all interests are aligned.
Setting policy in Brussels is one
thing. Constructing, operating
and safeguarding renewable
energy assets for the long-term
is quite another.
FRASER MCLACHLAN, CHIEF EXECUTIVE, GCUBE INSURANCE
THE BIG QUESTION
1305REW_22 22 5/15/13 11:48 AM
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1305REW_23 23 5/15/13 11:48 AM
THE BIG QUESTION
According to the Heat Coalition,
of which ESTIF is a member and
which is a platform gathering 11
European associations with a
stake in the heating and cooling
sector, the forthcoming climate
and energy policy framework
must adequately address the
future role of the heating and
cooling sector, as it accounts
for no less than 45% of the fnal
energy consumption in Europe
today.
Unfortunately, the stance
taken on heating and cooling
in the Green Paper confrms
the recent conclusion from
the IEA Energy Technology
Perspectives publication,
arguing that 'heating and
cooling remain neglected areas
of energy policy and technology,
but their decarbonisation is a
fundamental element towards
a low carbon economy. With
virtually no mention of this
sector or any reference to the
challenges it faces, the Green
Paper fails to consider the
relevant issues.
However, the Heat Coalition
strongly believes that this is
the right time to develop a
comprehensive European
approach for heating and
cooling towards making
energy more affordable and
keeping European businesses
competitive, as requested by
both the European Parliament
and the Council.
Recently, the European
Parliament responded to the
European Commissions Energy
Roadmap 2050 by calling on
the Commission to consider the
'full integration of the heating
and cooling sector into the
transformation of the energy
system; stressing that 'readily
available renewable energy
solutions (geothermal, biomass
including biodegradable waste,
solar thermal and hydro/
aerothermal), in combination
with energy effciency
measures, have the potential to
decarbonise the heat demand
by 2050 in a more cost-effective
way, while addressing the
problem of energy poverty.
Moreover, the Councils
conclusions on the renewable
energy Communication, agreed
last December, stated that
'more attention should be paid
to the widely untapped potential
of renewables in the heating and
cooling sector'.
Given these clear signals
from both the European
Parliament and the Council,
the heating and cooling sector
should be considered as a
crucial pillar supporting the
2030 framework.
Today, the Heat Coalition
calls on the European
Commission to put forward a
comprehensive strategy, which
must include improved statistics
and data collection process, to
promote innovative renewable
energy sources and energy
effcient solutions throughout
the entire renewable energy
supply chain.
XAVIER NOYON, SECRETARY GENERAL, EUROPEAN SOLAR THERMAL ENERGY FEDERATION
GASOKOL/ESTIF
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One of Germanys most-debated subjects
right now is the rising cost of its Energiewende
policy, which aims to enable the country to
decommission its nuclear generation capacity.
Furthermore, the policy is designed to allow
generation from renewable energy sources to
take an 80% share of Germanys total electricity
consumption from renewables by 2050
(currently about 23%).
The cost of the new infrastructure has proved
unpalatable to most, however, with debate rife as
to how best to structure this cost in the wake of
the global economic downturn, and particularly
how to spare the consumers from shouldering
this cost directly. Germanys government has
set up several incentive programmes in key
sectors to encourage private direct investment
and/or research in certain sectors incentives
including low-interest loans, employee benefts
and government grants. As a result, although
the debates rage on, Germanys Energiewende
is progressing extremely well.
One of the by-products of all this has been
that Germany last year exported more energy
than ever before. This was not only because of
the increased production, but also because of
the current grids comparative infexibility when
it comes to either absorbing the energy exactly
where it is produced, or in storing the seasonal
highs in energy production from the different
renewable sources. Thus most of the incentives
now are for companies to help come up with
smarter grids and energy storage systems.
The more smart grids and energy storage
capacity systems grow, the more theoretically
transnational co-operation and liberalisation
in this subject has to improve, as a fully-
integrated, pan-European smart grid becomes
more and more possible. Much is already being
done here. Grid control co-operation is already
underway in Germany, Denmark, Belgium,
TOBIAS ROTHACHER, SENIOR MANAGER RENEWABLE ENERGIES, GERMANY TRADE AND
INVEST
GTAI/AMPRION
Holland, Switzerland and the Czech
Republic, while Austria and Poland are
making preparatory work to also join this
cooperative transmission initiative.
There needs to be emphasis now on
integration of renewable energy into the
grids, including data exchanges and pro-
actively examining how grids would deal
with future renewable energy volume
increases rather than reactively.
Work also needs to be done on
ensuring that the benefts of network
extension are seen to be acceptable
at their cost, both socially and publicly,
especially in an environment/structure of
more decentralised energy producers.
1305REW_25 25 5/15/13 11:48 AM
WIND: POLICY & MARKETS
In the old days armed gangsters threatened you with violence or worse if you didnt do their bidding. But in the
modern world mobsters brandish environmental impact assessments or power point presentations with balance
sheets and projected revenues and things become far less straightforward, fnds Rachana Raizada.
TACKLING ORGANISED CRIME
IN A BID TO SECURE INVESTOR
CONFIDENCE IN WIND
26 RENEWABLE ENERGY WORLD MAY-JUNE 2013
T
his April, the Direzione Investigativa Antimafa (DIA) of Palermo
announced it had completed the confscation of assets (a
record 1.3 billion) belonging to Vito Nicastri, an entrepreneurial
plenipotentiary based in the western province of Trapani, and
known in Sicily as King of the Wind. His wind farm development
empire sold plants on a turnkey basis at a going rate of around 2
million/MW capacity. Crime and corruption crept in at several levels:
applications for public grant funding through different legal entities
so as to get multiple grants; acquiring land concessions; acquiring
operating permits and authorisations from various government
bureaucracies; contracts for public tenders; and procuring
infrastructure construction services from mafa-certifed suppliers.
Anticipation of generous government incentives once the projects
were in operation fuelled demand for Nicastris services. A web spun
so widely and fnely that it even netted legitimate renewable energy
players which had no idea until it was too late.
CORRUPTION HIT
AS ITALY CLEANS
UP WIND SECTOR
1305REW_26 26 5/15/13 11:48 AM
WIND: POLICY & MARKETS
In September 2010, Denmarks Greentech Energy Systems
received a shock when 15% of its share capital in a project
company, Minerva Messina (a 48.3 MW wind project in Sicily), was
seized by the Italian authorities although it hadnt received state
grants and had been fnanced with Greentech equity and project
fnancing. Nicastri had developed the project, 85% of which came
into Greentechs possession in 2007 with its purchase of a Danish
company Vind Energi Invest. A Nicastri-controlled company held
15% until Greentech bought the minority share in May 2010. Another
Nicastri company, Eolo Costruzioni, was a subcontractor to Siemens
during construction.
But for local Sicilian companies attempting their own
development, the situation was more obvious. Over fve years ago,
Salvatore Moncada, the CEO of Moncada Energy Group visited
diverse public entities to understand why his applications for wind
The web of corruption in the Sicilian wind sector even netted
legitimate renewable energy players, some of which had no
idea until it was too late
ISTOCK
RENEWABLE ENERGY WORLD MAY-JUNE 2013 27
farm permits were stalled. I understood I should do something
incorrect, says Moncada, who subsequently went to a meeting
in a bar in Castelvetrano, Trapani where an associate of Nicastris
suggested that 70,000 could get seven applications approved.
I felt the obligation to denounce it to the authorities, remembers
Moncada, adding that he also denounced a director in the Sicilian
government who tried to sell him a wind project. Moncadas
complaints contributed to a series of investigations on Nicastri by
the DIA specifc to wind energy:
Eolo (2009): this operation established the presence of mafa
involvement in wind energy. Nicastri was subjected to preventive
measures when one of his wind farm development companies
was found to be linked to a mafa family.
Via col vento (10/11/2009): Nicastri and three others were found
to have benefted from public funds for wind farm development
using false land claims and statements of credit availability.
Vento del sud (14/09/2010): suspected of intercepting public
funds for energy development, Nicastris assets (1.5 billion)
were sequestered;
Broken Wings (July 2012): Nicastri was arrested in this operation.
Ironically the Moncada family construction business, founded
in 1991, had decided after twenty years to turn to something
greener and cleaner as the Italian electricity market was
liberalised. It was one of the most polluted sectors, says
Moncada with reference to construction (not in the environmental
sense). We decided to abandon it and enter renewable energy,
which at that time had received little attention either from the
mafa or the Sicilian government.
Having as little contact as possible with the government was
a major attraction for Moncada, who estimates that over half of all
business activities in Sicily require something from the government.
The laws are transparent but the processes through which they are
applied are not. You need to know someone who will move your
application forward or it will remain blocked, he says.
Initially it was smooth sailing with the frst wind farm entering
production in 2005. A prototype of a 750 kW turbine with direct
drive technology designed and constructed by a Moncada group
company was tested at the plant in anticipation of a future turbine
manufacturing facility. Four more wind farms entered operation
in 2007, all in the southern province of Agrigento. The regional
government of Sicily hadnt yet understood the value of these
projects. They saw me as a dreamer. But when they saw wind was a
proftable business, they began to put up walls. There was no need
for a limit but by blocking permits, they could increase the value of
the projects, explains Moncada.
Moncadas main concern with taking his complaint to the police
was his familys safety. As an entrepreneur you expect to take risks,
but normally those risks dont involve living under police protection,
he notes. Moncada had already experienced this between 2005 and
2007 for a previous denouncement made to the police related to his
construction business. After a quiet period of living mostly at home
he became one the few to voluntarily eschew it after only a year and
a half and request its removal. Some see a police escort as a status
symbol and even go to the cinema, but its a huge cost to the state.
Nicastris role as a wind plant developer was a lateral career
move following a stint in photovoltaics in the early 1990s. In 1994,
1305REW_27 27 5/15/13 11:48 AM
Nicastri testifed to collecting three billion lire in bribes for delivery to
a councillor in the Sicilian government to fnance election activities.
The proceedings revealed a corrupt system underlying public grant
funding for PV installations. Nicastri received a lenient, suspended
sentence but the cost to the treasury was estimated at 30 billion lire.
Structural Funds programmes under the EUs Cohesion Policy
contribute to the confuence of factors that have made renewable
energy in southern Italy a magnet for criminal attention: impoverished
regions with a historical presence of organised crime and a large
pot of public funds for development of the souths abundant wind
and solar resources. Italy is second only to Poland and Spain as a
benefciary of EU Cohesion Policies which aim to reduce regional
imbalances within member states. It received 28.8 billion in EU
funds for 20072013; an additional 95 billion was contributed by
the Italian government.
A specifc share is for energy investments: the Renewable Energy
and Energy Effciency Operational Programme for Apulia, Campania,
Calabria and Sicily has a total budget of around 1.6 billion. A 2011
report on organised crime by the EU Directorate General for Internal
Policies acknowledges the misuse of EU structural funds in Italys
wind sector. The disbursement process for funds under the old law
n.488/92 was regarded as fundamentally fawed in that it dispersed
authority among regional authorities and private fnancial institutions.
The DIA in its 2nd Semester Report for 2010 identifes this law as a
major factor in allowing criminal infltration.
The DIAs recent asset confscation, authorised after courtroom
hearings in the Tribunal of Trapani followed the DIAs 2010 seizure
of these assets as a preventive measure (i.e., before a trial) under
Italys revamped anti-mafa laws. The assets included 43 companies
(or partial holdings), 98 real estate properties, vehicles, a luxury
catamaran, and 66 fnancial accounts (banks deposits, insurance
policies etc.). By reconstructing Nicastris asset holdings over thirty
years, a signifcant gap emerged between assets owned and income
declared. These operations (investigations, inspections, monitoring,
analysis, technical and other activities) require many months of work,
states Colonel Giuseppe Dagata, Head of the DIAs Palermo Centre.
The diffculties are in reconstructing the assets of those involved and
their relationships, whether personal or fnancial, especially since the
economic relationships, in the case of Nicastri, extended outside
Italian borders (Spain, Belgium, Luxembourg, Denmark, Malta).
DIA investigations unrelated to renewable energy (Abele and
Cadice) had established that Nicastri was under Mafa protection
and documented fnancial relations between Nicastri and mafa. His
importance in mafa circles was confrmed by the pizzini (notes used
for mafa communication) found at the arrest of two noted bosses.
An effective networker, Nicastris relationships apparently extended
across the island to criminal cliques in Eastern Sicily and across
the Strait of Messina to the Calabrese Ndrangheta.
The DIAs 2009 Eolo operation concluded that the mafa subsidiary
known as Cosa Nostra intervened with its representatives to
promote agreement among wind power entrepreneurs in Trapani so
as to avoid internal competition and secure control of manufacturing
related to wind plant construction. Nicastri wasnt charged but was
allegedly implicated in the network of interests revolving around wind
energy. This is described as a systematic dynamic among public
administration (elected offcials and government functionaries), the
mafa and entrepreneurs. This paradigm was apparently replicated
across Sicily. Nicastris case received the most international publicity
but is only one amongst several high profle cases involving organised
crime in the sector.
A 500 page document issued by the Tribunal of Palermo provides
transcripts of intercepted conversations relating to transactions
among entrepreneurs and government functionaries in the windy
municipality of Mazaro del Vallo, Trapani. The document summarises
the complexity of processes for wind farm authorisation. The
application process which should in theory be unifed may require
as many as 13 different permits ranging from environmental impact
assessments to seismic clearances, and clearances from the armed
forces for airspace security. In this backdrop to Eolo, Nicastri enters
the scene in 2006 when his company, Eolica del Vallo, synergistically
consolidated its position in Trapani by acquiring control of projects of
Sud Wind and ENERPRO: the former had acquired land rights, while
the latter had acquired the necessary permits.
The DIAs aggressiveness in clamping down on organised crime
is widely lauded but investor confdence is far from being restored.
An industry insider who has observed investment funds shying away
from Italy believes the country risk is just too high when the political
instability and the reduced incentive schemes announced in 2012 are
added in. Both Moncada and Greentech appear to share this view,
given that neither companys expansion plans prioritise Italy, despite
a large untapped potential. While Sicily does lead Italy in wind energy
production (2.4 TWh in 2011), solar electricity production data might
lead one to believe that 3rd placed Lombardy (almost 1 TWh) with its
dense, smoggy, grey skies is a sunnier place than 7th placed Sicily.
The mafa allegations and potential for random asset seizures hasnt
helped companies wanting to sell their wind farms in Sicily arent
fnding buyers.
Greentech successfully recovered its seized Minerva assets in
2011 without any economic impact on the company. Following the
seizure, Sigieri Diaz della Vittoria Pallavicini stepped in as Greentechs
new CEO and successfully effected a cleanup operation not just on
Minerva Messina but also a Sardinian project that faced unexpected
setbacks in 2011. Construction of Greentechs Cagliari II wind farm
was halted by authorities for pre-emptive reasons due to alleged
irregularities committed during project development between 2003
and 2008. The assets were released in 2012.
We have solved 100% of the old problems with Greentech, says
WIND: POLICY & MARKETS
28 RENEWABLE ENERGY WORLD MAY-JUNE 2013
Sicilian wind farm. REUTERS
1305REW_28 28 5/15/13 11:48 AM
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