Van Hanh He Thong Dien

Mn hoc: Vn hanh H thng in
Chuong 1
CAC PHNG PHAP D BAO PHU TAI IN NNG

1.1. KHAI NIM CHUNG

D bao phu tai in nng la mt vn quan trong trong cng tac thit k qui
hoach h thng in. Muc ch cua d bao in nng trong tng lai da vao cac quan
sat trong qua kh, phuc vu cho cng tac qui hoach ngun li trong h thng in, phuc
vu cho cng tac iu h thng (co k hoach chun b sn sang ap ng phu tai)
D bao la mt khoa hoc con non tre, trong o nhiu vn cha hnh thanh tron
ven. i tng nghin cu cua khoa hoc nay la cac phng phap d bao va pham vi ng
dung la cac hin tng xa hi, kinh t , ky thut, v . v . . . D bao la mt khoa hoc quan
trong, nhm muc ch nghin cu nhng phng phap lun khoa hoc, lam c s cho
vic xut cac d bao cu th cung nh vic anh gia mc tin cy, mc chnh xac
cua cac phng phap d bao - nu d bao sai lch qua nhiu v kha nng cung cp va
nhu cu nng lng se dn n hu qua khng tt cho nn kinh t. Nu d bao qua tha
v ngun se phai huy ng ngun qua ln lam tng vn u t dn n lang ph vn u
t va khng khai thac ht cng sut thit b, ngc lai nu d bao thiu cng sut ngu n
se dn n cung cp in khng u cho nhu cu cua phu tai, giam tin cy cung cp
in gy thit hai cho nn kinh t quc dn.
` Phn loai du bao :
Theo thi gian d bao (tm d bao) ta phn ra cac loai d bao sau :
- D bao ngn han (tm ngn): Thi gian t 1 n 2 nm
- D bao hang va (tm trung): Thi gian t 3 n 10 nm
- D bao dai han (tm xa): Thi gian t 15 n 20 nm, co tnh cht chin lc
Ngoai ra con co d bao iu vi thi gian d bao theo gi trong ngay, tun, . .
. phuc vu cho cntg tac iu h thng.
Sai s cho phep i vi tng loai d bao nh sau:
- D bao tm ngn va tm trung: T (5 - 10)%,
- i vi d bao dai han 5 - 15% (thm ch n 20%),
- Con d bao iu th cho phep (3 - 5)%.

1.2. CAC PHUONG PHAP DU BAO

1.2.1. Phuong phap tinh h s vuot truoc
Phng phap nay cho bit khuynh hng phat trin cua nhu cu tiu thu in
nng so vi nhp phat trin cua nn kinh t quc dn.
V du : Trong khoang thi gian 5 nm t nm 1995 n nm 2000, san lng
cng nghip cua Thanh ph a Nng tng t 100 ln 150%, con san lng in nng
tiu thu cung trong khoang thi gian o tng 170%.
Nhom Nha may in - B mn H thng in - HBK a Nng . 1
Nh vy h s vt trc la:
k = 13 , 1
150
170

Da vao h s k ta xac nh c in nng tiu thu nm d bao. Phng phap
nay co nhiu sai s do nhng nguyn nhn sau :
- Sut tiu hao in nng ngay cang giam (i vi mt sanm phm) do cng
ngh ngay cang cao va quan ly ngay cang tt hn.
- in nng ngay cang s dung trong nhiu nganh kinh t va nhiu a phng.
- C cu kinh t thng xuyn thay i

1.2.2. Phuong phap tinh truc tip :
Ni dung cua phng phap la xac nh in nng tiu thu cua nm d bao da
trn tng san lng kinh t cua cac nganh nm d bao va sut tiu hao in nng i
vi tng loai san phm, mc tiu hao cua tng h gia nh . . .Phng phap nay c ap
dung cac nc co nn kinh t phat trin n nh, co k hoach, khng co khung hoang.
u im cua phng phap la: tnh toan n gian, cho ta bit c t l s dung
in nng trong cac nganh kinh t nh cng nghip, nng nghip, dn dung, v . v. . . va
xac nh c nhu cu in nng tng a phng (s dung thun tin trong qui
hoach).
Nhc im : Mc chnh xac phu thuc nhiu vao vic thu thp s liu cua
cac nganh, a phng d bao.
Phng phap nay dung d bao tm ngn va tm trung.

1.2.3. Phuong phap ngoai suy theo thoi gian :
Ni dung cua phng phap la tm quy lut phat trin cua i n nng theo thi
gian da vao s liu thng k trong mt thi gian qua kh tng i n nh, ri keo dai
quy lut o ra d bao cho tng lai.
V du : M hnh co dang ham mu nh sau:
A
t
= A
0
(1 + )
t
(1-1)
Trong o: - : tc phat trin bnh qun hang nm
- t : thi gian d bao
- A
0
: in nng nm chon lam gc
- A
t
: in nng d bao nm th t.
C const
A
A
A
A
t
t
t
t
= = + =
+
+
=
+
+

1
) 1 (
) 1 (
0
1
0 1
Nh vy ham mu co u im la n gian, phan anh ch s phat trin hang nm
khng i. Co th xac nh hng s C bng cach ly gia tr trung bnh nhn ch s phat
trin cua nhiu nm.
C =
n
C C C .......
2 1
(1-2)
(C
i
: h s phat trin nm i ; n : s nm quan sat)
ng q
(1-3)
c:

4)
ai suy ham mu la n gian va co th ap dung
g n nh, thiu ngun thng tin
ua kh co s liu khng tht se dn n qui lut sai).
ng phap khac) nm d bao, da vao mi quan h trn d
o phu
dn theo thi gian d bao san lng
ng nghip, kinh t quc dn nm t d bao.
ach co hiu qua. Phng phap thng c ap dung cho d bao ngn han va trung han.
in
ong, thng ngi ta ly trung bnh co t trong y kin cua cac chuyn gia phat biu.
.3. DA
. . .) la mt m hnh ma s thay i cua y phu thuc vao s thay i
cua ai lng x.
T uat m hnh d bao co dang :
A
t
= A
0
C
t

Ly lgarit 2 v (1-3) ta
lgA
t
= lgA
0
+ t. lgC
t y = lgA
t
; a = lgA
0
; b = lgC th (1-3) co th vit:
y = a + bt (1-
Cac h s a,b c xac nh bng phng phap bnh phng cc tiu.
u im cua phng phap ngo
d bao in nng tm ngn va tm xa.
Khuyt im : kt qua ch chnh xac nu tng lai khng nhiu va qua kh phai
tun theo mt quy lut (thng i vi h thng khn
q

1.2.4. Phuong phap tuong quan :
Nghin cu mi tng quan gia cac thanh phn kinh t vi in nng nhm
phat hin nhng quan h v mt nh lng t o xy dng m hnh biu din s tng
quan gia in nng vi san lng cac thanh phn kinh t nh: san lng cng nghip,
san lng kinh t quc dn..v..v...Khi xac nh c gia tr san lng cac thanh phn
kinh t ( bng cac ph
ba tai in nng.
Nhc im cua phng phap la ta phai thanh lp cac m hnh d bao phu, v du
san lng cng nghip, san lng kinh t quc
c

1.2.5. Phuong phap so sanh di chiu :
So sanh i chiu nhu cu phat trin in nng cua cac nc co hoan canh tng
t. y la phng phap c nhiu nc ap dung d bao nhu cu nng lng mt
c

1.2.6. Phuong phap chuyn gia :
Da trn c s hiu bit su sc cua cac chuyn gia gioi cac lnh vc cua cac
nganh d bao cac ch tiu kinh t. Cung co khi dung phng phap nay d bao tr
v

1 NH GIA TUONG QUAN GIUA CAC DAI LUONG TRONG M HINH DU BAO
M hnh d bao biu din mi tng quan gia in nng y (la i tng ngu
nhin) vi mt bin ngu nhin x khac (nh gia tr san lng cng nghip, san lng
kinh t quc dn
Ngoai vic xac nh mt cach gn ung ( theo phng phap bnh phng cc
tiu) cac h s cua phng trnh hi qui, cn xac nh mt ai lng c trng phu na
la h s tng quan r, noi ln s phu thuc tuyn tnh gia cac bin ngu nhin y va x.
H s tng quan tuyn tnh c xac nh nh sau:
r =
( ) ( )

= =
=
n
i
n
i
i i
n
i
i i
y x
y x
1 1
2
'
2
'
1
' '
.
(1-5)
trong o :

( )
( )
= =
=
=
=
=
=

= =
= =
= =
= =
n
i
i
n
i
i
n
i
i
n
i
i
n
i
i
n
i
i
n
i
i i
n
i
i i
i i
i i
y
n
y x
n
x
y n y y
x n x x
y x n y x y x
y y y
x x x
1 1
2
1
2
1
2
'
2
1
2
1
2
'
_
1 1
' '
'
'
1
;
1
(1-6)

=
+ =
+ =

y x n y x
y x n x n y y n x y x
y x x y y x y x y x
i i
i i
i i i i i i
' '

Vi y x, : gia tr trung bnh
n : s quan sat
-1 r +1
ai lng r cang ln th mi lin h tuyn tnh gia cac bin ngu nhin cang
cht, h s tng quan co th xem nh mt ch tiu cua ham la chon.
xem h s tng quan r tn tai mc nh th nao, sau khi tnh c gia tr
r ta tip tuc phn tch thng k theo biu thc :
t =
2
1
2
r
n r
(1-7)
ai lng t la mt ai lng ngu nhin co phn phi Student, so sanh gia tr t
tm c vi bang phn b Student. Gia thit vi tin cy la 0,95 nu t > t
0,05
th
chng to cac bin ngu nhin y va x tng quan tuyn tnh vi nhau.
V du: anh gia tng quan gia in nng tiu thu vi gia tr san lng cng
nghip ghi trong bang sau:
S th t in nng tiu thu
( KW )
Gia tr san lng cng nghip
( 10
3
ng)
01 2,8 6,7
02 2,8 6,9
03 3,0 7,2
04 2,9 7,3
05 3,4 8,4
06 3,9 8,8
07 4,0 9,1
08 4,8 9,8
09 4,9 10,6
10 5,2 10,7
11 5,4 11,1
12 5,5 11,8
13 6,2 12,1
14 7,0 12,4

Goi y la in nng tiu thu va x la gia tr san lng cng nghip. Gia thit y va x
co mi quan h tuyn tnh bc nht theo dang:
y = Ax + B
Trong o A va B la cac h s xac nh theo phng phap bnh phng cc tiu.
Phng trnh hi qui co dang:
y = 3,1003 + 1,4481x
Xac nh h s tung quan r:
4143 , 4
14
8 , 61
4928 , 9
14
9 , 132
1
1
= = =
= = =
=
=
n
x
x
n
y
y
n
i
i
n
i
i
35 , 52 4928 , 9 14 95 , 1313 ) (
9973 , 23 4143 , 4 14 8 , 296 ) (
7516 , 34 4928 , 9 4143 , 4 14 81 , 622
2 2
1
2
1
2 '
2 2
1
2
1
2 '
1 1
' '
= = =
= = =
= = =

= =
= =
= =
x y n y y
x x n x x
x x y x n y x y x
n
i
i
n
i
i
n
i
i
n
i
i
n
i
i i
n
i
i i

T cac gia tr trn ta tnh c h s tng quan la:
98 , 0
35 , 52 9973 , 23
7516 , 34
= =
x
r

Ta nhn thy gia tr r gn bng 1 cho thy mc tng quan gia y va x la
tng quan rt cht. Theo (1-7) ta tnh c:
05 , 17
98 , 0 1
2 14 98 , 0
2
=

= t
Gia thit vi tin cy la 0,95 tra bang phn phi Student ta c: t
0,05
=2,179.
Nh vy: t = 17,05 > t
0,05
= 2,179, chng to rng y va x tng quan tuyn tnh vi nhau.

1.4. PHUONG PHAP BINH PHUONG CUC TIU
1.4.1 Khai nim:
Xet trng hp n gian nht gm hai bin ngu nhin co lin h nhau bng mt
ham dang tuyn tnh:
y = + x (1-8)
Trong o , la nhng h s khng thay i, x la bin c lp, y la bin phu
thuc. Nu xet n anh hng cua cac hin tng ngu nhin th (1-8) co th vit mt
cach tng quat nh sau:
y = + x + (1-9)
Vi nhiu co cac gia thit sau:
- : bin ngu nhin
- Ky vong toan E() = 0
- Phng sai cua = const
- Cac gia tr khng phu thuc nhau.
Da vao kt qua thng k chung ta thu c mt day cac gia tr xi, tng ng se
co mt day cac gia tr yi. Vn la xac nh cac thng s , . Nhng gia tr thc cua
chung khng th bit c v chung ta ch da vao mt lng thng tin han ch, ma ch
nhn c cac gia tr tnh toan a, b. Do o phng trnh hi qui co dang:
10) - (1 bx a y + =
)
Cn phai tm cac h s a, b nh th nao ng hi quy gn ung vi ng
thc t nht, ngha la sao cho tng bnh phng cac lch gia gia tr tnh toan theo
phng trnh hi qui vi gia tr thc t tng ng la nho nht ngha la at c muc tiu:

min (1-11)
=

n
i
i i
y y
1
2
^
y chnh la tinh thn cua phng phap bnh phng cc tiu. Phng phap nay
c ng dung ph bin v tnh cht n gian va co c s vng chc v mt xac sut,
theo phng phap trn cac h s a, b nhn c co tnh cht sau y :
a. Cac anh gia cua cac thng s khng lch, ngha la :
E(a) =
E(b) =
(ngha la sai s khng nghing v mt pha - cac thng s la chon tp trung
xung quanh gia tr thc ma ta cha bit)
b. Cac gia tr quan sat c la xac ang, ngha la phng sai cac gia tr y tin
ti 0 khi tng s quan sat n ln :
;
lim

0
2
lim
=
a
n
=
b
n
0
2
c. Cac gia tr quan sat c la hiu qua ngha la co phng sai nho nht.

1.4.2. Cac biu thuc toan hoc d xac djnh cac m hinh du bao:
Gia thit rng co ham s lin tuc y = (x, a, b, c...). Xac nh cac h s a, b, c...
sao cho thoa man iu kin:
[ ] 12) - (1 min ...) , , , (
1
2

=
n
i
i i
c b a x y
Mun vy chung ta ln lt ly ao ham (1-12) theo a, b, c.... va cho trit tiu,
chung ta se c mt h phng trnh:
Giai h phng trnh (1-13) chung ta se xac nh dc cac h s a, b, c....Sau y
xet mt s phng trnh thng gp.
[ ]
[ ]
[ ]
13) - (1
0 ...) , , , (
0 ...) , , , (
0 ...) , , , (
1
2
1
2
1
2
=
=
=
c
c b a x y
b
c b a x y
a
c b a x y
n
i
i i
n
i
i i
n
i
i i
1. Dang phuong trinh:

Phng trnh hi qui : = a + bx (1-14)
Ta co mt day quan sat x
i
(i = n i, ) tng ng la day y
i
(i = n i ) ,
]
2
1 =
+
n
i
i i
bx a y
Cn tm cac h s a, b sao cho

min
=

n
i
i i
y y
1
2
^
F(a,b) = [
min ( )
Theo (1-13) ta co:

( ) [ ]
( ) [ ]

= + =
= + =
=
=
0 0
0 0
1
1
i
n
i
i i
n
i
i i
x bx a y
b
F
bx a y
a
F
(1-15)

Hoc co th vit:
(1-16)
= +
= +

= = =
= =
n
i
i i
n
i
i
n
i
i
n
i
i
n
i
i
y x x a x b
y na x b
1 1 1
2
1 1
Giai ra ta tm c a, b
Nh vy da vao n quan sat ta tm c ham hi qui, ngha la ta tm c a, b
xac ang, khng chnh lch va hiu qua.
Chia phng trnh th nht cua (1-16) cho s quan sat n ta co :
a + b x = y (1-17)
Nh vy phng trnh hi qui cho ng thng i qua im co toa ( y x, ).
t

y y y
x x x
i i
i i
=
=
'
'
(gc toa chuyn n im ( y x, ) )
Khi o ; 0
1
'
=
=
n
i
i
x 0
1
'
=
=
n
i
i
y
Ta se xac nh c:

( )
=
=
=
=
x b y a
x
y x
b
n
i
i
n
i
i i
1
2
'
1
' '
(1-18)
Trong o : va
' '
i i
y x ( )
2
'
i
x xac nh theo (1-6) .

V du : Xy dng m hnh d bao dang y = a + bx, bit day s liu quan sat sau y
Nm S th t (nm) in nng tiu thu [MWh]
1990 1 12,20
1991 2 13,15
1992 3 14,60
1993 4 16,10
1994 5 17,20
1995 6 18,50
1996 7 19,40
1997 8 20,60
1998 9 21,75
1999 10 23,50

Theo (1-16) chung ta phai ln lt xac nh cac ai lng sau:

= = = =
n
i
i i
n
i
i
n
i
i
n
i
i
y x x y x
1 1
2
1 1
; ; ;
Cac kt qua tnh toan ghi trong bang sau:

S thu tu nm t
i
Din nng tiu thu y
i
2
i
t
t
i
y
i
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
12,2
13,15
14.60
16,10
17,2
18,50
19,40
20,60
21,75
23,50
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100
12,2
26,30
43,80
64,40
86,0
111,0
135,8
164,8
195,75
235,00
55 177 385 1075
T o ta co h phng trnh sau:

= +
= +
= +
= +

= = =
= =
1075 55 385
177 10 55
1 1 1
2
1 1
a b
a b
y t t a t b
y na t b
n
i
i i
n
i
i
n
i
i
n
i
i
n
i
i
Giai h phng trnh trn ta tm c: a = 10,93; b = 1,231
Phng trnh hi qui co dang :
= 10,93 + 1,231t
Hoc co th xac nh cac h s a, b theo (1-18) nh sau:
y =
i
y
n
1
= 17,70

=
i
t
n
t
1
= 5,50
x t t
i i
=
'

y y y
i i
=
'

Cn xac nh ;
' '
i i
y t ( )
2
'
i
t ;
Cac kt qua tnh toan ghi trong bang sau:
t
i
y
i
t
i
y
i
t
i
y
i
t
i
2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
12,2
13,15
14,60
16,10
17,2
18,50
19,40
20,60
21,75
23,50
-4,5
-3,5
-2,5
-1,5
-0,5
0,5
1,5
2,5
3,5
4,5
-5,50
-4,55
-3,10
-1,60
-0,50
0,80
1,70
2,90
4,05
5,80
24,75
15,93
7,75
2,40
0,25
0,40
2,55
7,25
14,17
26,10
20,25
12,25
6,25
2,25
0,25
0,25
2,25
6,25
12,25
20,25
101,55 82,5

Ta tm c :
b =
( )
5 , 82
55 , 101
10
1
2
'
10
1
' '
=
=
=
i
i
i
i i
t
y t
= 1,231
a = t b y = 17,70 - 1,231 . 5,50 = 10,93
Phng trnh hi qui : = 10,93 + 1,231t
H s tng quan :

( ) ( )

=
2
' 2
' '
.
i i
i i
y x
y x
r =
35 , 125 . 5 , 82
55 , 101
= 0,9985
H ss tng quan r gn bng 1 cho thy y va t tng quan cht.
t = 894 , 145
1
8
1
2 10
1
2
2 2 2
=
r
r
r
r
r
n r

Vi tin cy 0,95 tra bang phn phi Student ta c t
0,05
= 1,86, ta nhn thy
rng t > t
0,05
, nh vy gia y va t tng quan tuyn tnh vi nhau.

2. Dang phuong trinh :
= ax
2
+ bx + c (1-19)
Cung da vao day quan sat trong qua kh xac nh cac h s a, b, c sao cho
at c ham muc tiu:
min ( )
=

n
i
i i
y y
1
2
min ( [
+ + =
2
2
c bx ax y F
i i i
)]
Theo (1-13) ta co:

( ) [ ]
( ) [ ]
( ) [ ]

= + + =
= + + =
= + + =
=
=
=
0 0
0 . 0
0 . 0
1
2
1
2
1
2 2
n
i
i i i
n
i
i i i i
n
i
i i i i
c bx ax y
c
F
x c bx ax y
b
F
x c bx ax y
a
F
(1-20)
Hoc la :
(1-21)
= + +
= + +
= + +

= = =
= = = =
= = = =
n
i
i
n
i
n
i
i
n
i
i i
n
i
i
n
i
i
n
i
i
n
i
i i
n
i
i
n
i
i
n
i
i
y c x b x a
y x x c x b x a
y x x c x b x a
1 1 1
2
1 1 1
2
1
3
1
2
1
2
1
3
1
4
Giai h (1-21) ta c a, b, c
V du :
Xy dng m hnh dang y = ax
2
+ bx + c bit day s liu quan sat sau y:

Nm S thu tu nm t Din nng quan sat [MWh]
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
0
1
2
3
4
5
57,10
46,47
43,57
41,47
46,93
60,18

Tnh toan cac h s cua h phng trnh (1-21) ghi kt qua vao bang sau:

STT
nm x
i
in nng tiu
thu [MWh] y
i
2
i
x
3
i
x
4
i
x x
i
y
i i i
y x
2

0
1
2
3
4
5
57,1
46,47
43,57
41,47
46,93
60,18
0
1
4
9
16
25
0
1
8
27
64
125
0
1
16
81
256
625
0
46,47
87,14
124,41
187,72
300,90
0
46,47
174,28
373,23
750,88
1504,50
15 295,72 55 225 979 746,64 2849,36


= + +
= + +
= + +
72 , 295 6 15 55
64 , 764 15 55 225
36 , 2849 55 225 979
c b a
c b a
c b a
Giai h phng trnh trn ta c kt qua:
a = 2,727 b = - 13,22 c = 57,35
Vy phng trnh hi qui tm c nh sau:
= 2,727 x
2
- 13,22 x + 57,35

3. Dang phuong trinh mu:
= ab
x
(1-22)
vi a > 0; b > 0.
Ly logarit hai v ta c: lg y = lga + x lgb
Hay Y = A + Bx (1-23)
Trong o: Y = lg y; A = lg a; B = lg b (1-24)
Tng t nh dang phng trnh bc nht ta co h phng trnh sau:
(1-25)
= +
= +

= = =
= =
n
i
i i
n
i
i
n
i
i
n
i
i
n
i
i
Y x x A x B
Y nA x B
1 1 1
2
1 1
Giai h phng trnh (1-25) ta c A va B, theo (1-24) se tm c a, b.
Hay cung co th xac nh A va B nh sau:

=
=
=
=
x B Y A
x
Y x
B
n
i
i
n
i
i i
1
2 '
1
' '
(1-26)
V du: in nng tiu thu mt a phng c ghi trong bang sau:

Nm
( t )
1995
( 1 )
1996
( 2 )
1997
( 3 )
1998
( 4 )
1999
( 5 )
2000
( 6 )
2001
( 7 )
in nng
10
6
[KWh] A(t)
7,34 11,43 14,25 16,25 19,40 24,98 34,97

M hnh d bao co dang A(t) = A
0
C
t
, trong o A(t) la in nng nm th t, A
0

la in nng cua nm chon lam gc, C la h s.
Ta thanh lp h phng trnh theo (1-25):
= +
= +

= = =
= =
n
i
i i
n
i
i
n
i
i
n
i
i
n
i
i
A t t A t C
A A n t C
1 1
0
1
2
1
0
1
log log log
log log log

Tnh toan cac h s ghi trong bang sau:

t
i
A
i
[10
6
KWh] t
i
2
logA
i
t
i
.logA
i
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
7,34
11,43
14,25
16,25
19,04
24,98
34,97
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
6,865
7,058
7,153
7,225
7,228
7,398
7,544
6,865
14,116
21,459
28,900
36,140
44,388
51,808
28 140 50,531 204,976

Ta co h phng trnh sau:
= +
= +
531 , 50 log 7 log 28
976 , 204 log 28 log 140
0
0
A C
A C
Suy ra:
logA
0
= 6,8113 A
0
= 6,476.10
6
KWh
logC = 0,102 C = 1,265
Ta co phng trnh hi qui nh sau:

A(t) = 6,476.10
6
.(1,265)
t

Ghi chu: d bao phu tai in nng thng s dung cac phng phap sau:
- Phng phap san bng ham mu,
- Xac nh toan t d bao ti u trong nng lng,
- X dung m hnh ly thuyt thng tin anh gia tng quan trong
d bao nhu cu in nng.

Chng 2
TNH TOAN PHN B TI U CNG SUT TRONG H THNG IN
BNG PHNG PHAP LAGRANGE

2.1. MO DU
Cn phai xac nh s phn b ti u cng sut gia cac nha may in trong h
thng in ( co th ch co cac nha may nhit in , hoc co ca nhng nha may thuy in )
u ap ng mt gia tr phu ta tng cho trc (k ca cac tn tht) nhm nng cao tnh vn
hanh kinh t cua h thng in .
y la bai toan a ch tiu:
- Chi ph nhin liu tng trong toan h thng la nho nht (min)
- am bao tin cy hp ly
- Cht lng in nng am bao...
Giai quyt bai toan a ch tiu nh vy hin nay cha co mt m hnh toan hoc
cht che, ma thng ch giai quyt cac bai toan ring bit, sau o kt hp lai.
V vy bai toan phn b ti u cng sut gia cac nha may in thng ch xet at
muc tiu quan trong la chi ph nhin liu tng trong toan h thng la nho nht.

2.2. BAI TOAN LAGRANGE:
Bai toan c phat biu nh sau: Cn phai xac nh cac n s x
1
, x
2
,..., x
i
,........ ,x
n

sao cho at cc tr ham muc tiu :
F(x
1
, x
2
,..., x
j
,........ ,x
n
) min (max) (2-1)
va thoa man m iu kin rang buc: (m<n)
g
1
(x
1
, x
2
,..., x
j
,........ ,x
n
) 0
g
2
(x
1
, x
2
,..., x
j
,........ ,x
n
) 0 (2-2)
........................................
g
m
(x
1
, x
2
,..., x
j
,........ ,x
n
) 0

Trong trng hp ham muc tiu (2-1) la giai tch, kha vi, h rang buc (2-2) gm
toan ng thc va s nghim khng ln ta co th dung phng phap th trc tip giai
bnh thng. Khi cac h (2-1) va (2-2) tuyn tnh va x
i
0 ta co th dung thut toan qui
hoach tuyn tnh giai nh phng phap hnh hoc, n hnh, vn tai....

Vi du :
Tm cac gia tr x1, x2 sao cho : min ) , (
2
2
2
1 2 1
+ = x x x x F
thoa man : 1
3 2
2 1
= +
x x

Nhom Nha may in - B mn H thng in - HBK a Nng .
14

Bai giai :
T 1
3 2
2 1
= +
x x
suy ra
2
3 6
1
2
x
x

=
Thay vao ham muc tiu F :
min
2
3 6
) , (
2
1 2
1
2
2
2
1 2 1

+ = + =
x
x x x x x F
iu kin cc tr :
0
1
=
x
F

hoc la : 0 ) 2 (
4
18
2
1 1
1
= = x x
x
F

giai ra c : x
1
= 18/13 va x
2
= 12/13
Xet ao ham cp 2 :
0
4
26
4
18
2
2
1
2
> = + =
x
F

nn ham F at cc tr tai :
13
18
*
1
= x va
13
12
*
2
= x
va khi o gia tr ham muc tiu la :

13
36
*
=
opt
F
Phng phap thay th trc tip trn y ch tin li khi h phng trnh rang buc
la tuyn tnh va s lng m khng ln lm. Trong trng hp chung giai bai toan xac
nh cc tr co rang buc la ng thc va tuyn tnh thng s dung rng rai phuong
phap nhn tu Lagrange .
Ni dung chu yu cua phng phap Lagrange nh sau:
Cn phai xac nh cac n s x
1
, x
2
,..., x
j
,........ ,x
n
sao cho:
F(x
1
, x
2
,..., x
j
,........ ,x
n
) min (max) (2-3)
va thoa man
g
1
(x
1
, x
2
,..., x
j
,........ ,x
n
) = 0
g
2
(x
1
, x
2
,..., x
j
,........ ,x
n
) = 0
........................................ (2-4)
g
m
(x
1
, x
2
,..., x
j
,........ ,x
n
) = 0
trong o m <n
Thanh lp ham Lagrange :
(2-5)
=
+ =
m
i
n i i n n
x x x g x x x F x x x L
1
2 1 2 1 2 1
) ,...., , ( . ) ,...., , ( ) ,...., , (
Trong o : m 1, = i
i
la nhng h s khng xac nh.
15
Nghim ti u X
*
opt
cua ham muc tiu F cung chnh la nghim ti u cua ham
Lagrange L(X) va ngc lai v g
i
(x
1
, x
2
,..., x
i
,........ ,x
n
) = 0 vi moi i=1..m.
V vy ta cn tm li giai ti u cho ham L(x
1
, x
2
,..., x
i
,........ ,x
n
)
Bai toan Larange phat biu nh sau:
Hay xac nh (x
1
, x
2
,..., x
i
,........ ,x
n
) va (
1
,
2
,..........,
m
) sao cho :
0
) ( ) ( ) (
1
= + =

=
m
i j
i
i
j j
x
X g
x
X F
x
X L
(2-6)
vi j=1..n va thoa man cac ieu kin rang buc :
vi 0 ) ,....., , (
2 1
=
n i
x x x g m i , 1 = (2-7)
T (2-6) ta co n phng trnh va t (2-7) co m phng trnh nn se giai c
(n+m) n s x
j
va
i
xac nh ham L(X) at cc tiu hay cc ai ta cn phai xet thm ao ham cp
hai cua F(X) hay L(X) tai cac im dng a giai ra c trn:
Nu d
2
L< 0 th ham F(X) ( hoc L(X) ) at cc ai va ngc lai nu d
2
L > 0 th
ham muc tiu se at cc tiu.
Ta se giai lai bai toan v du 1 theo phng phap Lagrange :
Tm cac nghim s x1 , x2 sao cho :
min ) , (
2
2
2
1 2 1
+ = x x x x F
vi rang buc 1
3 2
2 1
= +
x x


=
=
+ =
1
1
2 1 2 1 2 1
) , ( . ) , ( ) , (
m
i
i i
x x g x x F x x L
) 1
3 2
( ) , (
2 1
1
2
2
2
1 2 1
+ + + =
x x
x x x x L
Xac nh cac im dng bng cach giai cac phng trnh :
0
2
2
) (
1
1
1
= + =

x
x
X L

0
3
2
) (
1
2
2
= + =

x
x
X L

0 1
3 2
2 1
= +
x x

Giai h 3 phng trnh trn c :

13
18
*
1
= x va
13
12
*
2
= x
va khi o gia tr ham muc tiu la :

13
36
*
=
opt
F
( nh kt qua a nhn c bng phng phap th )
16
Xet cac ao ham bc hai tai im dng:
0 2
) (
2
1
2
> =
x
X L

0 2
) (
2
2
2
> =
x
X L

nn ham L(X) va ham muc tiu F(X) at cc tiu tai im
X
*
(18/13 ; 12/13).
Trong trng hp ham muc tiu F(X) va cac rang buc g(X) la nhng phim ham
( tn tai tng quan gia nhng ham ) khi o tm cc tr cua cac phim ham phai s dung
cac bai toan bin phn. V du nh trng hp tnh phn b ti u cng sut i vi cac
nha may thuy in v khi o phai xet ti u trong ca chu ky iu tit.
Bai toan c phat biu nh sau :
Cn phai xac nh cac ham s x
1
, x
2
,..., x
i
,........ ,x
n
cua thi gian t sao cho ham
muc tiu la phim ham at cc tr:
(2-8) min(max) . ) ' ,...., ' , ' , ,...., , , (
1
0
2 1 2 1
=
dt x x x x x x t F V
t
t
n n
va thoa man m iu kin rang buc :
g
1
(t,x
1
, x
2
,..., x
j
,........ ,x
n
) = 0
g
2
(t,x
1
, x
2
,..., x
j
,........ ,x
n
) = 0
............................................. (2-9)
g
m
(t,x
1
, x
2
,..., x
j
,........ ,x
n
) = 0

Trong o :
dt
dx
x
j
j
= ' vi n j , 1 = (2-10)
(2-11)
=
+ =
m
i
i i
x t g t x t F x t L
1
)] , ( ). ( [ ) , ( ) , (
sau o tm cc tr cua phim ham:

(2-12) min(max) . ) , (
1
0
* *
=
dt x t F V
t
t
vi (2-13)
=
+ =
m
i
i i
x t g t x t F x t F
1
*
)] , ( ). ( ) , ( ) , (

Cac gia tr x
j
(t) vi j = [1..n] va cac h s nhn
i
(t) vi i = [1..m] co th nhn
c bng cach giai h phng trnh ao ham ring cua ham Lagrange va vit trong dang
h phng trnh Euler nh sau :
17

=
=
=
0 ) ' ( ) (
........ .......... .......... ..........
0 ) ' ( ) (
0 ) ' ( ) (
* *
2
*
2
*
1
*
1
*
n n
x f
dt
d
x f
x f
dt
d
x f
x f
dt
d
x f
(2-14)

Trong o :

n j
x
F
x f
n j
x
F
x f
j
j
j
j
, 1 ;
'
) ' (
, 1 ; ) (
*
*
*
*
= =
= =
(2-15)

Kt hp n phng trnh cua h (2-14) va m phng trnh rang buc (2-9) ta se giai
c (m+n) gia tr ham x
j
(t) va
i
(t) vi j = [1..n], i = [1..m]. Ngoai ra xac nh 2n
hng s tch phn ta se s dung cac iu kin u :
n j x t x x t x
j j j j
, 1 ) ( ; ) (
1 1 0 0
= = = (2-16)

2.3.- PHN B TI UU CNG SUT GIUA CAC NHA MAY NHIT DIN:
Xet bai toan :
Co n nha may nhit in cung cp cho phu tai tng P
pt
c nh. Bit nhng s liu
v c tnh tiu hao nhin liu tng nha may. Cn phai xac nh cng sut phat ti u
cua mi nha may P
j
vi j = [1...n], sao cho chi ph nhin liu tng trong h thng at cc
tiu, vi rang buc v iu kin cn bng cng sut.
M ta dang toan hoc:
Cn xac inh b nghim ti u P`(P*
1
,P*
2
,......,P*
n
) sao cho ham muc tiu v chi
ph nhin liu tng at cc tiu :
(2-17) min ) ( ) ,..., ,...., , (
1
2 1
= =

=
n
j
j j n j
P B P P P P f B
thoa man iu kin rang buc v cn bng cng sut :
(2-18) 0 ... .... ) (
1
2 1
= = + + + + + =

=
pt
n
j
j pt n j
P P P P P P P P P P g
vi const = P const; = P ; n 1, = j 0
pt

j
P (2-19)
Ta giai bng phong phap Lagrange :
) ( ) ( ) ( P g P B P L + = (2-20)
18
iu kin ham s L(P) at cc tr :

= + =
= + =
= + =
0
) ( ) ( ) (
..... .......... .......... .......... ..........
0
) ( ) ( ) (
0
) ( ) ( ) (
2 2 2
1 1 1
n n n
P
P g
P
P B
P
P L
P
P g
P
P B
P
P L
P
P g
P
P B
P
P L
(2-21)

Gia thit :
) ( ......... ) ( ) ( ) (
2 1
P B P B P B P B
n
+ + + = (2-22)

Khi o :
j
j
j
j
n
j
j
j j j
P
B
P
B
P
B
P
B
P
B
P
P B
= = + + + + + = ....... ......
) (
2 1
(2-23)
vi gia thit j k ; 0 =
j
k
P
B
ngha la chi ph nhin liu nha may th k khng phu

thuc vao cng sut phat ra cua nha may th j .
Ta t
j
j
j
P
B
= va goi la sut tng tiu hao nhin liu cua nha may th j, noi ln
nhp tng tiu hao nhin liu khi tng cng sut phat P
j
,
j
phu thuc vao c tnh
cua lo hi va turbin.

T iu kin rang buc :
(2-24) 0 ... .... ) (
1
2 1
= = + + + + + =

=
pt
n
j
j pt n j
P P P P P P P P P P g

ta tnh c :
1
) (
... ..........
) (
1
1
1 1 1
2
1
1
1
= =
+
+ + + =
P
P
P
P P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P g
pt
n
(2-25)

Tng quat :
1
) (
....... ......
) (
2 1
= =
+
+ + + + + =
j
j
j
pt
j
n
j
j
j j j
P
P
P
P P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P g
(2-26)

Thay vao iu kin cc tr (2-21 ) ta co h phng trnh :
19

= + = + =
= + = + =
= + = + =
0
) ( ) ( ) (
......... .......... .......... .......... .......... ..........
0
) ( ) ( ) (
0
) ( ) ( ) (
2
2 2 2
1
1 1 1

n
n n n
P
P g
P
P B
P
P L
P
P g
P
P B
P
P L
P
P g
P
P B
P
P L
(2-27)

Do o iu kin cc tr la:
0 ........ .......
2 1
= + = = + = = + = +
n n
(2-28)
hay :

) ( ........ .......
2 1
= = = = = =
n n
(2-29)

y chnh la nguyn ly phn b ti u cng sut gia cac nha may nhit in
trong HT.
Khi xem P
pt
= const , P = const th chi ph nhin liu tng trong h thng nho
nht th cac nha may phai phat cng sut P
j
* ti u khi thoa man nguyn ly cn bng sut
tng tiu hao nhin liu
j
= const.
Vi c tnh sut tng tiu hao nhin liu
j
cua cac t may phat la ham khng
giam khi tng cng sut phat P
j
(thc t nh vy) ta co th chng minh ham muc tiu
B(P) at cc tiu bng cach xet thm cac ao ham cp hai va co c:
0 ) ( d hay 0
) (
2
2
2
P L
P
P L
j
(2-30)
Nu xet tn tht cng sut phu thuc vao cng sut phat P
j
ngha la:
P = P(P
1
,P
2
,.....,Pn)

iu kin cc tiu cua ham Lagrange co th vit :

+ = + =
=
+ = + =
=
+ = + =
0 ) 1 (
) ( ) ( ) (
... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... ..........
0 ) 1 (
) ( ) ( ) (
0 ) 1 (
) ( ) ( ) (
2
2
2 2 2
1
1
1 1 1
n
n
n n n
P
P
P
P g
P
P B
P
P L
P
P
P
P g
P
P B
P
P L
P
P
P
P g
P
P B
P
P L
(2-31)

20

Khi o, nguyn ly phn b cng sut ti u la :

n
n
P
P
P
P
P
P
= =
1
.... ..........
1 1
2
2
1
1
(2-32)

i
i
P
P
1
goi la sut tng tiu hao NL khi co xet n tn tht P
Qua o cho thy khi P = const th cho ta kt qua iu kin phn b ti u cng
sut nh a trnh bay trn.
T nguyn ly cn bng sut tng tiu hao nhin liu nay, ta co th tm ra c
nghim ti u P* = (P*
1
,P*2,.......,P*n).

4.4. THU TUC PHN PHI TI UU CNG SUT :
Vic phn phi ti u cng sut gia cac nha may nhit in c tun theo
nguyn ly cn bng v sut tng tiu hao nhin liu . Sut tng th hin nhp tiu
tn nhin liu khi tng cng sut P phat ra. V vy theo nguyn ly phn phi trn y
at cc tiu nhin liu tiu hao trong toan h thng, nha may co nho se nhn phat nhiu
cng sut va nha may co ln (ngha la lam vic khng kinh t) se phai phat t cng sut.
Nguyn ly nay th hin tnh cng bng trong phn phi ti u. Cn quan tm nhng c
im sau:

4.4.1. Sut tng tiu hao nhin liu va sut tiu hao nhin liu :
Cn phai phn bit ro sut tng tiu hao nhin liu va sut tiu hao nhin liu .

ng vi mi nha may nhit in co th xy
dng c ng c tnh tiu hao nhin
liu B phu thuc cng sut phat ra P nh
hnh 2-1. Gia s t may phat ang lam vic
im a :
B
P
tg
a
a
a
= = (2-33)
a
: goi la sut tiu hao nhin liu cua nha
may ng vi im a [kg n.lieu/KWh ]
] n.lieu/KWh [kg tg
dP
dB
a
a
= = (2-34)
a
: goi la sut tng tiu hao nhin liu.
21
Hnh 2-1
T O ve tip tuyn Ob, im b goi la im lam vic kinh t, tai im lam vic nay
cng sut phat la P
kt
ng vi chi ph nhin liu la B
kt
. Khi P > P
kt
th theo c tnh ta thy
sut tng tiu hao nhin liu tng nhanh, cang tiu hao nhin liu. V vy theo quan im
kinh t tit kim nhin liu ch vn hanh vi P <= P . Tai im lam vic kinh t ta co:
kt
kt
kt
P dP
kt
P B
P
dB ) (
) ( =
nhin liu bng sut tng tiu hao nhin liu.
V du: Xem bang sau

Phu ng
P [MW]
Tiu hao nhin liu
B ]
S
[kg/kWh]
Su o
Wh]
Ngha la sut tiu hao

tai h th
[tn/h
ut tiu hao t tng tiu ha
[kg/k
2500 1050 0,420
2600 1070 0,412

................ ................ ... .. ............
5000 2000 0,400
5100 2070 0,406

Theo bang trn, thi im P = 2500 MWh cac gia tr sut tiu hao va sut tng

c tinh sut tng tiu hao nhin liu cua t lo-tuabin-may phat:

0,200
0,700

kg/kWh 420 , 0
1050
= = =
B
2500 P
kg/kWh 200 , 0
2500 2600
1050 1070
=
P
B
tiu hao c tnh nh sau:

4.4.2. D

T L
dP
dQ
dQ
dB
dP
dB
. . = = =

Hnh 2-2

dQ
dB
L
= - goi la sut tng tiu hao nhin liu cua lo hi [Kg n.lieu/Kcalo]
22

dP
dQ
L
= - goi la sut tng tiu hao nhin liu cua tucbin [Kcalo/KWh]
ng c tnh sut tng tiu hao nhin liu cua lo hi
L
thng co dang ng
cong (hnh 2-3a) tuy thuc cac loai lo hi khac nhau.

Hnh 2-3
ng c tnh tiu hao nhit lng Q cua turbin trong nhiu trng hp co dang
o nhit lng cua turbin
T
la gia tr ao ham cua
ng phap gia cng toan hoc, chng han phng phap bnh
phng cc tiu xy dng c quan h giai tch B = B(P). T o xac nh c c tnh
s
t trng hp tn tht cng sut la hng s, khng phu thuc vao cng sut phat
i mi nha may ta xy dng c quan h sut tng tiu hao nhin liu phu
ng cong
j
ta xy dng c ng cong (P) cua toan h
ng g
,12 P
pt
), nh cach lam m ta trn hnh ve ta xac
gn tuyn tnh (hnh 2-3b). ng c tnh co ch gay khuc ng vi gia tr P
kt
, iu o
giai thch khi van qua tai m, nhit lng tng nhanh va tnh kinh t giam t ngt.
ng c tnh sut tng tiu ha
ng Q theo P. T cac ng
T
va
L
xy dng c ng c tnh sut tng tiu hao
nhin liu cua t may nh hnh 2-3c.
Ngoai ra xy dng c tnh sut tng tiu hao nhin liu cua t may hoc nha
may in co th thc hin bng cach thng k cac tp s liu B va P trong cac ch vn
hanh khac nhau va nh cac ph
ut tng tiu hao nhin liu.

4.4.3.Thu tuc phn phi ti uu cng sut :
Xe
cua cac nha may. Gia s ta cn phai phn phi cng sut P
pt
cho n nha may, ta tin hanh
nh sau:
- V
thuc vao cng sut phat
j
=
j
(P
j
) vi j = [1..n] bng dang giai tch hoc bng s cho
theo bang .
- Da trn cac
th m n nha may, bng cach gi nguyn tr s trn truc tung, cng n gia tr cng
sut P trn truc hoanh.
- Cn c vao phu tai tng cng P
pt
cn cung cp k ca tn tht cng sut P (trong
tnh toan s b co th ly bng 0,07 - 0
23
nh c cac g y ia tr ti u cng sut phat ra t cac nha ma in P
j
* thoa man iu kin
cn bng sut tng tiu hao nhin liu:

1 2
= = = = = = ....... ........ ( )
n n

tuc phn phi nh trn cn phai chu y:
1. Khi gia nhin liu nha may th i nao o khac gia nhin liu tiu chun th cn
hiu chnh
i
thanh
i
theo :
va thoa man iu kin cn bng cng sut.

pt N J
P P P P P P + = + + + + +
* * *
2
*
1
... ....
Ta nhn thy nha may nao co sut tng tiu hao nhin liu cang nho th nhn cang
nhiu cng sut. Khi tin hanh thu
0
. '
a
a
i
i i
=
Trong o : a
i
la gia nhin liu cua nha may th i va a
0
la gia nhin liu tiu chun,
t o ta thy rng nha may nao co gia nhin liu cang t th ch nn phat t cng sut.
2. Co th xay ra trng hp tm ra nho hn ng vi cng sut cc tiu P
min

y phn phi ti u ta se nha may co nho nhn thm cng sut trc, nhng
ui cung cung phai am bao
i
bng nhau vi moi nha may th i va phai ap ng y u
g sut trong h thng gm cac nha may thuy
t la thi gian gia 2 ln thao nc va tr nc k tip nhau. Tuy
y li, thi tit v.v.... V vy ch lam
hoc ln hn ng vi cng sut cc ai cho phep P
max
th khi o ch cho nha may nhn
cng sut P
min
hoc P
max
v o la gi han kha nng phat cng sut cua nha may.
3. Thng trong thc t vn hanh ngi ta ch cho bang sut tng tiu hao nhin
liu va P
i
thay cho ng c tnh d phn b hn. Khi phu tai tng ln th theo
nguyn l
c
phu tai.

4.5. PHN B CNG SUT TI UU GIUA NHIT DIN VA THUY DIN:
Trong vn hanh khng phai nha may thuy in lun lun phat ht cng sut la ti
u mc du no co nhiu u im la gia thanh in nng re, khng tiu hao nhin liu...
Ch tiu ti u cua s phn b cn
in va nhit in la lam cc tiu chi ph nhin liu nhit in, ng thi phai thoa man
iu kin thuy nng nha may thuy in.
Ch ti u ch xet i vi nh ng thuy in co h cha nc, ngha la co kha
nng iu chnh dong chay vao tuc bin ( goi la kha nng iu tit )
Chu ky iu ti
theo dung tch h cha thng phn nha may thuy in iu tit theo ngay, tun, mua,
nm hoc nhiu nm.
Trong mt chu ky iu tit lng nc tiu ph cho nha may thuy in la khng
i va c xac nh bi nhng iu kin v thu
vic ti u cua thuy in phai xet trong toan b chu ky iu tit va iu kin rang buc
y chnh la lng nc tiu hao a qui nh.
24
Ngoai ra co nhng thi gian nha may thuy in buc phai lam vic theo ch
gii han va vn phn b cng sut ti u khng cn t ra. Chng han i vi thuy
in ch phat in khng co yu cu v giao thng, thuy li... thi im phu tai cao
nh ( cn phai tit kim nc mua nc can ), hoc thuy
p :
a may nhit in ng tr theo iu kin cn bng sut tng
tiu hao nhin liu .
(2-35)
V xet trong chu ky iu tit nn ta phai xet B con phu thuc vao t va xet ca s
im phai am nhn phu ta
in khng co h cha, h cha nho phai tn dung ht thuy nng nn phai phat ht cng
sut ngha la nhn phn phu tai nn (xem giao trnh Nha May in ).
Ta xet trng h
Co n nha may thu y in lam vic trong h thng cung vi mt s nha may nhit
in ma ta xem nh mt nh
Goi B la lng tiu hao nhin liu nha may nhit in ng tr trong mt n v
thi gian. ( n v la tn/h )
) , , (
,
ND ND
P P t B B =
thay i cua P
N
theo thi gian t :
dt
dP
P
ND
ND
=
,

Goi Q
i
la lu lng nc tiu hao trong mt n v thi gian nha m
3
ay thuy in
th i [ m /s ].
n 1, = i voi ) , , (
,
TDi TDi i i
Lng nc qui nh i vi thuy in th
P P t Q Q = (2-36)
u ti
Khi o bai toan c phat biu nh sau :
c nha may
in liu:
(2-37)
thoa man cac rang buc v lng nc tiu hao i vi cac nha may thuy in:

,
2 2 2
W dt P P t Q
T
T T
=
(2-38)
i trong chu ky i t T:
=
T
i i
dt Q W
0
.
Xac nh cng sut phat cua nha may nhit in ng tr P
N
va cua ca
thuy in P
T1
, P
T2
,.........., P
Tn
sao cho at cc tiu ham muc tiu v chi ph nh
min ). , , (
,
0

dt P P t B
N
T
N
. ) , , (
1
0
,
1 1 1
W dt P P t Q
T
T T
=

. ) , , (
2
0
.....................................

. ) , , (
0
,
n
T
Tn Tn n
W dt P P t Q =

va thoa man rang buc v iu kin cn bng cng sut:

0 ..... ) , (
2 1
= + + + + = P Ppt P P P P P t g
TDn TD TD ND
(2-39)
25
Ta giai bai toan ti u nay theo phng phap Lagrange nh a trnh bay muc
t ta lp phim ham Lagrange:
+ + +
T T
P t g dt P t Q dt P t Q ) , ( ). , ( ........ ). , (

1
,
2
,......,
n
: la nhng h s khng xac nh a vao cac phng trnh rang buc
theo iu kin lu lng nc.
s khng xac nh a vao phng trnh rang buc cn bng cng sut.
T y tm cc tiu cua phim ham L(t,P) :
0
1
+ + =

=
T
i
n
i
i
P t Q P t B
i
i
=
th
tm nghim cua bai toan ta lp h phng trnh Euler di dang:
2.2. Trc h

+ =
T
dt P t B P t L ). , ( ) , (

t n n
0 0
1 1
0

Trong o:

t
: h

min )]. , ( , (
t
dt P t g P t L ) , ( ) , ( [ )
t ) , ( ) , ( ) , ( ) , (
*
P t g P t Q P t B P t F
n
+ + =

t i
1
min ). , ( * ) , (
0
=
(2-40)

T
dt P t F P t L
0 '
* *
= Pi Pi f
d
f
dt
(2-41)
o :
Pi la cng sut cu ay nhit in n ,
i N T1 T2 Tn

Trong
a nha m g tr P
N
va cac nha may thuy in P
T1
P
T2
,...,P
Tn
.
P la cac ao ham P ,P , P ,........,P
i
Pi
P
P t F
f
) , ( *
*
= va
i
Pi
P
P t F
f
'
) , ( *
'
*
= (2-42)
c h phng trnh Euler dang : Ta
.......... .......... ..........

1 TD
+
=
+
=
+
0 ) 1 (
'
(
........ .......... .......... ..........
0 ) 1 (
'
(
0 ) 1 (
'
1 1
1 1
1
t
n n
n
TD
t
TD
ND
t
ND ND
P
P
P
Q
dt
d
P
Q
P
P
P
Q
dt
d
P
Q
P
P
P
B
dt
d
P
B
(4-43)

vi gia

TDn TDn TDn
thit : P
pt
= hng s
26
Ta k hiu :
=
ND
P
B
- sut tn
trong ch c lp.
goi la g tiu hao nhin liu nha may nhit in
xa

1
1
q
Q
=
,
2
2
2
q
P
Q
TD
=
,.......
t tng tiu hao nc nha may thuy in
1,2,.... trong ch xac lp.
- la su
1
P
TD

Nhn thy cac thanh phn :
' .
'
=
B d
va
i
TD
q
Qi d
' . =
P dt '

ND
P dt
xut hin trong qua trnh bin i ch lam vic cua h
i i
tc bin i theo thi gian cua cng sut nha may in.
h phng trnh (4-43) kh
t
ta co :
thng va , q phu thuc vao
Thng ta gia thit
i
= 0, q
i
= 0 ; khi o t
TDn TD ND
Q
P
Q
P
P
P
1 1 1
1
1
1
Nu xem tn th
n
q
(4-44)
q

= = = . ..........
1
t cng sut khng i th:
n n
q q q . ......... . .
2 2 1 1
= = = = (4-45)
y la nguyn ly cng bng cua vic phn b ti u cng sut gia cac nha may
in theo sut tng tiu hao nhin liu, trong o i vi thuy in i co ai din la sut
tng ng tr la
i
.q
i
.
Nhng ga tr cua
i
la nhng hng s ng vi nha may thuy in i va c chon
n ti u cua bai toan a nu. Sau y ta se
x s va xy dng thu tuc phn phi cng sut ti u gia
4.6. DC DIM VA THU TUC PHN PHI
4.6.1. Y ngha cua h s
trong chu ky iu tit nhm thoa man iu ki
et thm y ngha cua cac h
i
nhit in va thuy in.

:
Trong trng hp n gian khi khng xet n s thay i cua cng sut trong
mang in, t biu thc (4-45) ta co :
tdi nd i
dP
dQi
dP
dB
q
i : = =

(4-46)
Gia thit rng s thay i cng sut phat r
i cng sut phat ra nha may nhit in, chng han khi nhit in phat cng sut giam
i th t
a nha may thuy in th i la do thay
huy in i phai phat cng sut tng ln. Mt cach gn ung v gia tr tuyt i ta
xem nh : dP
t
= dP
n
. Nh vy tng quat ta co th vit :
27
1,2...n = i voi
dQi
dB
i = (4-47)
Nh vy i c nh ngha la s bin i cua tiu hao nhin liu nha may
i thuy in lam vic vi ln th nhin liu tit kim c nhit
t cua thuy
in i tng ln, thng gia tr cua sut tng tiu hao nc qi cua no se tng, khi o do
c i cn phai
va lai dn n
gia tr khng i ban u.

c (4-45).
n liu, xy dng ng c tnh cho nha may nhit in ng tr (hnh 2-4).
t la moi gia tr i la nhng hng s
a cho, xy dng cac ng c tnh iqi cho cac nha may thuy in i=1,2,...,n (hnh 2-
4).
- T gia tr ph ng cua h th
pt
k ca tn tht trong mang trn th sut
tng tiu hao nhin liu tng
HT
(hnh 2-4 ) ta xac nh cac gia tr ti u v cng sut cua
nhit in va cac thuy in P*
n
,P*
t1
,P*
t2
,.....,P*
tn
.

nhit in theo s thay i cua lu lng nc nha may thuy in i. Th nguyn cu i
la [ tn nhin liu/m
3
nc ] va chnh i la ch tiu phan anh hiu qua s dung nc nha
may thuy in i. Kh
in trn 1m
3
nc cang nhiu, do o goi la h s hiu qua s dung nng lng cua
thuy in.
Ngoai ra cn chu y rng co ch lam vic ti u ga tr i cua mi nha may
thuy in sau khi xac nh cn gi khng i trong sut chu ky iu tit. iu o c
giai thch nh sau :
Gia thit thi im nao o ga tr i c chon tng ln. Khi o tit kim
nhin liu nhit in cn tng cng sut phat thuy in i. Nhng v lng nc trong
chu ky iu tit a xac nh nn khi tng cng sut thuy in se tng lng nc tiu hao
va bt buc phai giam cng sut thi im khac. Mt khac, cng sut pha
ng sut phat cua nhit in gam i nn gia tr cua giam, v vy = /q la

chon giam i. Tom lai, khi tng i ta cn phai tng P
ti
, nhng khi P
ti
tng ( P
n
gam ) se
lam giam i va khi i giam tit kim nhin liu ta lai cn phai giam P
ti
tng i. Qua trnh tip tuc cho n khi i tr v

4.6.2. Thu tuc phn phi ti uu cng sut giua nhit din va thuy din:
Vic phn phi ti u cng sut gia nha may nhit in va thuy in trong HT
da trn nguyn ly cn bng sut tng tiu hao nh trn biu th
Thu tuc phn phi tin hanh nh sau:
- i vi cac nha may nhit in cn c vao nguyn ly cn bng sut tng tiu hao
nhi
- i vi tng nha may thuy in, cn c vao lng tiu hao nc Qi va cng sut
phat P
ti
ta xy dng ng c tnh sut tng tiu hao nc qi.
- Trc ht khao sat trng hp n gian nh
u tai t ng P
28

1
q
1

n
q
n
P*
N
P
N
P*
T1
P
T1
P*
Tn P
Tn
Hnh 2-4
Tuy nhin trong thc t thng cac ga tr cua i cua thuy in phai xac nh theo
iu kin ti u ma khng bit trc, v vy thu tuc phc tap hn.
Nh a phn tch, ch lam vic ti u cua cac nha may thuy in phai am bao
2 muc tiu :
- at cc tiu tiu hao nhin liu trong cac nha may nhit in.
- at lng tiu hao nc Wi trong chu ky iu tit nh qui nh.
T y thy rng phai chon cac gia tr i mt cach hp ly.

29

Hnh 2-6

T hnh 2- 4 ta thy rng nu nha may thuy in i nao o nu chon gia tr i ln
th ng c tnh iqi nng cao ln do o cng sut phat cua thuy in th i se giam i
va dn n lng nc trong chu ky iu tit nho hn qui nh. V vy trong trng hp
tng quat thu tuc phn phi ti u cng sut gia nhit in va n nha may thuy in c
tin hanh gn ung theo thut toan trn s hnh 2-5. Trong mt s trng hp do kho
d bao chnh xac lng nc trong chu ky iu tit dai nn thng xac nh ch lam
vic cua thuy in theo lng nc tiu hao trung bnh trong mt ngay m Q
tb
. Vi
Hnh 2-5
30
31
nhng gia tr chon khac nhau, gia tr cua QB
tb
B ta co th xy dng theo ng c tnh nh
hnh 2-6, da theo th phu tai cua thuy in. T y cung thy rng khi chon ln,
cng sut PB
T
B se nho, dn n QB
tb
B nho .
Trong trng hp co mt nha may thuy in, vic xac nh gia tr co th n
gan suy t gia tr QB
tb
B qui nh. Khi co nhiu thuy in vic xy dng cac ng QB
tb
B cung
phc tap, luc o thng chon cac h s B
i
B theo phng phap dn ung nh a nu .
Cn chu y rng cac gia tr c chon co tuy thuc vao tnh thi tit. Chng han
vao mua nc ln khi h khng cha ht toan b lng dong chay, cn chon nho, co th
dn n B
q
B nho hn ca gia tr cc tiu cua nhit in, nh vy QB
T
B se ln, thuy in se
phat toan b cng sut, nhit in ch am bao phn phu tai con lai. Tng t khi nc
can co th thc hin chon ln .
Trn y khi xet ch lam vic ti u cua nhit in va thuy in ch nhm thoa
man ch tiu cc tiu chi ph nhin liu va am bao cng sut phu tai h thng. Trong
thc t vic chon cac tham s con phai thoa man nhng ch tiu khac nh mc nc qui
nh ha lu phai am bao, cac ch tiu v cht lng in nng nh in ap v.v...

31
Chng 3
TNH TOAN PHN B TI U CNG SUT TRONG H THNG IN
BNG PHNG PHAP QUI HOACH NG

3.1. MO DU
Quy hoach ng la mt phng phap quy hoach toan hoc nhm tm li giai ti
u cua qua trnh nhiu bc (hoc nhiu giai oan). Tnh t ng y nhm nhn
manh vai tro thi gian va s xut hin day cac quyt nh trong qua trnh giai bai toan,
cung nh th t cac phep toan co y ngha quan trong.
Qua trnh khao sat c chia thanh nhiu bc, mi bc ta s dung mt quyt
nh. Quyt nh bc trc co th iu khin qua trnh bc sau. Nh vy quy
hoach ng tao nn mt day quyt nh. Day quyt nh o goi la sach lc (hoc co
khi la chin lc). Sach lc thoa man muc tiu quy nh goi la sach lc ti u. Ch
tiu ti u phai th hin i vi toan b qua trnh nhiu bc.
Sau y chun b tm hiu ni dung c ban cua phng phap quy hoach ng
ta khao sat mt th du v qua trnh iu khin nhiu bc.
Gia thit cn tm mt sach lc ti u phn phi ngun vn ban u X cho
mt h thng k x nghip hoat ng trong n nm sao cho li nhun thu c t k x
nghip o sau n nm la cc ai.
y ngun vn X co th la ngun vt t, sc lao ng, cng sut t cua may
moc .v.v... Ngoai ra bai toan co th xy dng theo nh ng muc tiu khac nh chi ph v
nhin liu la cc tiu, hiu qua tng v lao ng la cc ai v.v...
Sach lc ti u y la b gia tr ngun vn u t cho tng nha may mi
nm sao cho li nhun tng sau n nm la cc ai.
Gia thit goi X
j
(i)
la gia tr ngun vn u t cho x nghip i u nm j, trong
o i = 1,2 ... k va j = 1,2 ...n, ngoai ra thoa man iu kin v cn bng ngun vn mi
nm :

( )
=
k
t
i
j
X
1
= X
j
: j = 1, 2 ..., n (3-1)
trong o X
j
la ngun vn tng con lai, t vao nm j cho k x nghip.
Li nhun tng cua k x nghip sau n nm ky hiu la W, gia tr cua W phu thuc
vao ngun vn ban u X va s nm hoat ng n. Co th biu din W la ham cua cac
gia tr X
j
(i)

W(X,n) = W(X
1
(i)
, X
2
(i)
..., X
n
(i)
) (3-2)
y la bai toan in hnh cua quy hoach ng va co th phat biu nh sau :
Xac nh tp gia tr
( )
{ }
i
j
X ; i = 1,2 ...,k; j = 1, 2 ,...,n sao cho :
W(X,n) max (3-3)
va thoa man :

( )
=
k
t
i
j
X
1
= X
j
: j = 1, 2 ..., n (3-4)
32

( ) i
j
X 0 (3-5)
trong o biu thc (3-3) trng hp nay co th biu din bng tng li nhn cua n
nm, ngha la :
W(X,n) = ( )
=
k
t
j j
X W
1
(3-6)
trong o W
j
la li nhun cua k x nghip nm th j. Nh vy ham muc tiu W(X,n) co
dang mt tng, y la mt dang thun li khi s dung phng phap quy hoach ng.
y gia thit rng ngun vn X a vao nm u tin cho k x nghip va hang
nm khng c b sung. Khng nhng th lng ngun vn cua mi x nghip qua
tng nm u b hao hut do s dung san xut sinh li nhun, ngha la i vi x
nghip i co :

( ) i
X
1
>
( ) i
X
2
> ... >
( ) i
j
X > .... >
( ) i
n
X (3-7)
Li giai ti u y c xac nh nh giai quyt mu thun sau y : Thng
x nghip san xut em lai li nhun nhiu lai co ty l hao hut v ngun vn cao (h
hong may moc, s dung nhiu vt t, thit b, lao ng). Ngoai ra cn c bit lu y la
li nhun cua k x nghip phai at gia tr cc ai sau n nm, ma khng phai ch xet
tng nm ring re.
Bai toan xac nh sach lc ti u phn phi ngun vn X cho k x nghip san
xut trong n nm trn y co th giai quyt theo hai hng :
+ Hng th nht : Xac nh ng thi b gia tr
( )
{ }
i
j
X ham li nhun
W(W1, W2 ..., Wn) at gia tr cc ai trong khng gian n chiu. Trong trng hp n
nho, cac ham W
j
la giai tch, kha vi, bai toan co th giai c nh nhng phep tnh vi,
tch phn. Khi n ln (chng han n = 10) bai toan a tr nn rt phc tap.
+ Hng th hai : Giai quyt bai toan trn y theo tng bc. Hng nay cho
thut toan n gian hn, c bit trong trng hp s bc n (s giai oan, s nm) la
ln. Hng nay th hin ni dung tinh thn cua phng phap quy hoach ng : Vic ti
u hoa c thc hin dn tng bc, nhng phai am bao nhn c li giai ti u cho
ca n bc. o la mt c im quan trong v nguyn ly ti u cua quy hoach ng,
ngha la trong qua trnh tm li giai khng c phep nhn cuc b, tm ti u ring re
cho tng bc ma phai nhn rng ra nhng bc sau, v trong nhiu trng hp mt
quyt nh em lai li nhun cc ai ring re cho bc nay co th dn n hu qua tai
hai cho bc sau. Chng han trong th du v sach lc quan ly cac x nghip nu trn,
nu ch nhn cuc b trong 1 nm th at li nhun ti a, ta u t toan b ngun vn
X cho x nghip nao ma san xut co nhiu li nhun nht mc du sau nm o thit b h
hong nhiu gy thit hai san xut cho nhng nm sau.
Theo tinh thn cua phng phap quy hoach ng nu trn, ta thy mi bc
u phai chon quyt nh sao cho day quyt nh con lai phai tao thanh mt sach lc
ti u. o chnh la nguyn ly ti u cua quy hoach ng, nguyn ly do con co th phat
biu nh sau : Mt b phn cua sach lc ti u cung la mt sach lc ti u. iu o
phan anh quan im h thng khi xet ti u theo tng bc nh a trnh bay.
33
Tuy nhin co mt bc ma khi lam ti u ta khng cn quan tm n tng lai,
o la bc cui cung (bc th n). V vy qua trnh quy hoach ng c tin hanh theo
trnh t ngc: t bc cui cung ln bc u tin.
Trc ht ta quy hoach cho bc cui cung. Nhng khi o cha bit kt cuc cua
bc trc o, ngha la cha bit bc ( n - 1) kt thuc ra sao, chng han trong th du v
quan ly x nghip, ta cha bit nm th ( n - 1) ngun vn con lai bao nhiu, li nhun
a at c la bao nhiu ... V vy cach lam cua quy hoach ng la tm li giai ti u
bc n ng vi nhng phng an kt thuc khac nhau bc (n-1). Li giai o c goi
la gia tr ti u co i u kin bc n nh m at cc tr ham muc tiu bc n (va
khng quan tm n tra ng thai cua h sau bc n).
Tip tuc cn xac nh li giai ti u co iu kin bc (n - 1) ng vi moi
phng an kt thuc co th cua bc (n-2) sao cho ham muc tiu at cc tr trong ca hai
bc cui (bc n - 1 va n)
Tip theo khao sat nh vy n bc u tin. mi bc ta tm c li giai
ti u co iu kin am bao cho ca day quyt nh tip theo n bc n la ti u. Thu
tuc o phan anh nguyn ly ti u a trnh bay.
Sau khi thc hin xong trnh t ngc xac nh c li giai (quyt nh) ti u
co iu kin mi bc, cn c vao trang thai ban u a cho cua bai toan, ta tin hanh
trnh t thun t bc 1 n bc n va xac nh day quyt nh ti u.
V mt toan hoc, nh vic chuyn nghin cu qua trnh n bc v tng bc,
phng phap quy hoach ng a lam giam th nguyn cua bai toan, tao thun li
giai. Ngoai ra nh nhng thu tuc truy chng mang tnh cht chng trnh hoa nn
phng phap quy hoach ng d dang thc hin trn may tnh in t s.
y cn chu y rng vic m ta n giai oan (trong thi gian) cua qua trnh ch
la quy c, cung co th quan nim h gm n i tng khao sat trong mt giai oan thi
gian hoc tng quat la h gm k i tng hoat ng trong n giai oan thi gian.

3.2. THANH LP PHUONG TRINH PHIM HAM BELLMAN
Xet bai toan phn phi ngun vn nh sau: Gia thit ta u t ngun vn ban
u X
1
vao mt x nghip san xut hai mt hang A va B. Qua trnh khao sat la n
nm. Vao u nm th nht ngun vn tng X
1
c phn lam hai phn: x
1
san xut
mt hang A va (X
1
- x
1
) san xut mt hang B.
Sau nm u mt hang A mang lai cho X nghip mt li nhun theo quan h
g(x
1
), mt hang B mang lai li nhun h (X
1
- x
1
).
san xut cac m hang, ngun vn u b hao hut. Gia thit sau nm u san
xut mt hang A, ngun vn x
1
con:
x
2
= ax
1
trong o 0 < a < 1
i vi mt hang B ngun vn con:
(X
2
- x
2
) = b(X
1
- x
1
) trong o 0 < b < 1
Ngun vn x
2
va (X
2
- x
2
) tip tuc u t vao nm th hai san xut mt hang
A va B. Qua trnh tip din trong n nm.
34
Gia tr ban u X
1
cung nh s nm n a bit. Do co s khac nhau gia cac gia
tr g(x
i
), h (X
i
- x
i
), a, b nn xut hin yu cu tm s phn phi ti u ngun vn X
i

trong tng nm sao cho tng li nhun cua x nghip sau n nm la cc ai.

3.2.1. Cach dt bai toan theo phuong phap c din:
Bai toan phn phi ngun vn trn y co th phat biu mt cach c in nh
sau:
Cn xac nh cac gia tr x
1
, x
2
, ... x
n
la lng ngun vn u t san xut mt
hang A nm th nht, th hai, ... th n, sao cho tng li nhun cua x nghip khi san
xut hai mt hang A va B sau n nm la cc ai, ngha la:
W(x
1
,x
2
,...x
n
) = g(x
1
) + h(X
1
- x
1
) + g(x
2
) + h (X
2
- x
2
) + ...+
+ g(x
n
) + h (X
n
- x
n
) max (3-8)
Trong o : 0 x
i
X
i
i = 1, 2, ..., n (3-9)
Va :
X
1
a cho
X
2
= ax
1
+ b (X
1
- x
1
)
.............. (3-10)
X
n
= ax
n
+ b (X
n-1
- x
n-1
)

Bai toan chuyn thanh yu cu xac nh im cc ai cua ham W(x
1
, x
2
, ...x
n
)
trong khng gian n chiu vi cac rang buc dang (3-9) va (3-10).
Trong trng hp n nho li giai co th nhn c bng phep tnh vi phn. Tuy
nhin cn thn trong v mt s trng hp cc ai co th nm bin cua rang buc,
ngoai ra khi n ln, chng han n 10, bai toan tr nn rt phc tap. Khng nhng th,
cach giai bai toan nh vy cho qua nhiu thng tin khng cn thit, v khi a bit X
1
va
n ch cn xac nh x
1
nh la ham cua X
1
va n, nh vy bai toan c giai hoan toan, va
suy ra x
2
, x
3
... x
n
. Theo y o ta co th t bai toan mt cach mi, theo tinh thn quy
hoach ng.

3.2.2. Cach dt bai toan theo tinh thn quy hoach dng.
n gian ta gia thit cac ham li nhun g(x
i
) va h (X
i
- x
i
) ch phu thuc vao
lng vn u t vao u nm th i la x
i
va (X
i
- x
i
), ma khng thay i theo thi gian,
ngha la dang ham g(x
i
) va h (X
i
- x
i
) c lp vi thi gian.
Nh sach lc ti u phn phi ngun vn, li nhun cua x nghip sau n nm
san xut mt hang A va B at gia tr cc ai f
n
(X
1
) la ham cua ngun vn ban u X
1

va s nm n khao sat.
Nu qua trnh san xut cua x nghip ch din ra trong mt nm th li nhun cc
ai f
1
(X
1
) co dang :
f
1
(X
1
) = max {g (x
1
) + h (X
1
- x
1
)] (3-11)
0 x
1
X
1

trong o f
1
(X
1
) la gia tr cc ai cua li nhun khi s nm khao sat n = 1 va s ngun
vn t vao nm u tin la X
1
.
35
Biu thc (3-11) cho ta cach xac nh gia tr f
1
(X
1
) nh sau: cho x
1
nhn cac gia
tr khac nhau t 0 n X
1
, tnh g(x
1
) va h (X
1
- x
1
) sau o xac nh f
1
(X
1
). T y thy
rng nu ch xet qua trnh san xut 1 nm, nu g (x
1
) > h (X
1
- x
1
) th toan b X
1
u t
san xut mt hang A, mc du sau mt nm lng X
1
o se b hao hut nhiu (gia thit
a > b) nhng iu o ta khng quan tm.
By gi khao sat qua trnh ch trong 2 nm (khng phai hai nm u cua qua
trnh nhiu nm), ngha la n = 2. Khi o, sau nm th nht ngun vn u t san xut
mt hang A trong nm th hai la:
x
2
= ax
1

i vi mt hang B co (X
2
- x
2
) = b (X
1
- x
1
)
Theo nguyn ly ti u cua quy hoach ng th du cho nm u phn phi X
1
th
nao, th s vn con lai la X
2
= ax
1
+ b (X
1
- x
1
) cung phai phn phi ti u trong nhng
nm con lai, y la 1 nm con lai. V vy li nhun thu c nm th hai vi s vn
X
2
phai at cc ai, bng f
1
(X
2
)
f
1
(X
2
) = f
1
[ax
1
+ b (X
1
- x
1
)] (3-12)
trong o f
1
(X
2
) la li nhun cc ai cua 1 nm cui cua qua trnh n = 2 nm.
T y co th vit biu thc li nhun cc ai cua x nghip trong qua trnh san
xut n = 2 nm
f
2
(X
1
) = max {g(x
1
) + h (X
1
- x
1
) + f
1
(X
2
)} (3-13)
0 x
1
X
1

hoc:
f
2
(X
1
) = max {g(x
1
) + h (X
1
- x
1
) + max [g(x
2
) + h (X
2
- x
2
)]} (3-14)
0 x
1
X
1
0 x
2
X
2

trong o:
x
2
= ax
1

(X
2
- x
2
) = b (X
1
- x
2
)
Khao sat trng hp tng quat: X nghip cn xy dng sach lc phn phi ti
u ngun vn X
1
trong qua trnh n nm.
Gia thit qua trnh chia lam hai giai oan: nm u tin va (n - 1) nm con lai.
Khi o li nhun tng cua x nghip sau n nm bng tng hai khoan li nhun: Khoan
li nhun nm u tin do ngun vn X
1
gy nn:
g(x
1
) + h (X
1
- x
1
)
va khoan li nhun cua (n - 1) nm sau tao nn bi ngun vn con lai sau nm th nht
la X
2
= ax
1
+ b (X
1
- x
1
).
Theo nguyn ly ti u cua quy hoach ng, du nm th nht gia tr x
1
c
chon th nao, th s vn con lai X
2
= ax
1
+ b (X
1
- x
1
) cung cn phai phn phi ti u
sut trong (n - 1) nm con lai nhn c gia tr li nhun cc ai f
n-1
(X
2
). V vy
cho tng li nhun sau n nm la cc ai cn xac nh x
1
sao cho at cc ai phim ham
sau y:
W
n
(x
1
,X
1
) = [g(x
1
) + h (X
1
- x
1
) + f
n-1
(X
2
)] max (3-15)
t f
n
(X
1
) = max Wn(x
1
, X
1
)
36
Ta co phng trnh phim ham Bellman, xac nh thu tuc phn phi ti u trong
qua trnh n bc nh sau:
f
n
(X
1
) = max {g(x
1
) + h (X
1
- x
1
) + f
n-1
[ax
1
+ b (X
1
- x
1
)]} (3-16)
Trong o f
n
(X
1
) la gia tr cc ai cua li nhun trong n nm khi ngun vn tng
t vao nm u la X
1
.
f
n-1
[ax
1
+ b (X
1
- x
1
)] = f
n-1
(X
2
) la gia tr cc ai li nhun cua (n - 1) nm con lai
khi ngun vn tng t vao la X
2
(t nm th hai).
Phng trnh phim ham Bellman dang (3-16) co ng dung rng rai va hiu lc
trong nhiu lnh vc quy hoach cac h thng phc tap, c bit khi s bc n ln, thu
tuc xac nh x
1
, x
2
..., x
n
c chng trnh hoa va thc hin trn may tnh in t.
Phng trnh (3-16) co tnh cht truy chng v gia tr f
n
(X
1
) xac nh thng qua
f
n-1
(X
2
) trong o lai co:
f
n-1
(X
2
) = max {g(x
2
) + h (X
2
- x
2
) + f
n-2
[ax
2
+ b (X
2
- x
2
)]} (3-17)
0 x
2
X
2

Va tip tuc tnh cho n f
1
(X
n
) la gia tr cc ai cua li nhun 1 nm cui cung
khi vn u t la X
n
. Gia tr f
1
(X
n
) c tnh trc tin.
y:
f
1
(X
n
) = max {g(x
n
) + h (X
n
- x
n
)} (3-18)
0 x
n
X
n

trong o:
x
n
= ax
n-1
; (X
n
- x
n
) = b (X
n-1
- x
n-1
)

3.3. AP DUNG:
minh hoa thu tuc xac nh sach lc ti u theo phng trnh phim ham
Bellman ta xet v du n gian sau y:
Vi du 3-1: Vn s dung bai toan phn phi ngun vn (thit b) X
1
cho x
nghip san xut hai mt hang. Gia thit hang nm mt hang A cho li nhun g(x
i
) = x
i
2
;
i = 1, 2, 3 ; mt hang B cho li nhun h (X
i
- x
i
) - 2 (X
i
- x
i
)
2
; i = 1, 2, 3. Sau mi nm
do hao mon, ngun vn x
i
thanh x
i+1
= ax
i
vi a = 0,75. Ngun (X
i
- x
i
) thanh (X
i+1
- x
i+1
)
= b (X
i
- x
i
) vi b = 0,30. Xet qua trnh san xut trong 3 nm. Cn xac nh x
1
va t y
co x
2
, x
3
, (X
1
- x
1
), (X
2
- x
2
), (X
3
- x
3
) sao cho li nhun cua x nghip sau 3 nm at cc
ai.
Nh trn a trnh bay, qua trnh giai c tin hanh theo cac bc sau y:
a. Buoc 1: Bt u t nm cui cung, y la nm th ba. Ta xac nh li giai
ti u co iu kin cua nm th 3, ngha la xac nh gia tr ngun vn u t x
3
cho san
xut mt hang A nm th 3 khi gia thit rng tng s vn con lai sau 2 nm la X
3
va
phai at li nhun cc ai trong nm th ba la f
1
(X
3
). y co:
f
1
(X
3
) = max [x
3
2
+ 2 (X
3
- x
3
)
2
]
V cac ham g (x
1
) va h (X
i
- x
i
) kha vi nn co th s dung cac phep tnh vi phn.
Cn xac nh x
3
at max f
1
(X
3
)

37
Co :
( )
3
3 1
x
X f
= 2x
3
- 4 (X
3
- x
3
) = 0 t y :
x
3
=
3
2
X
3

v
( )
2
3
3 1
2
x
X f
= 6 > 0
nn gia tr x
3
=
3
2
X
3
ng

vi cc tiu cua ham f
1
(X
3
).
Nh vy ham f
1
(X
3
) at cc ai cac gia tr bin cua
x
3
trong khoang 0 va X
3
(xem Hnh 3-1)
Vi x
3
= 0 co f
1
(X
3
) = 2X
3
2

Vi x
3
= X
3
co f
1
(X
3
) = X
3
2
.
Vy li giai ti u la x
3
= 0, ngha la nm th ba, hoan toan khng u t vn
san xut mt hang A ma tt ca vn X
3
dung san xut mt hang B. iu o d hiu
v li nhun do mt hang B em lai gp i do A em lai. Tuy nhin ty l hao mon vn
khi san xut B rt ln (70%) nhng v la nm cui nn ta khng quan tm n nhng
nm tip na.
b. Buoc 2: Ta xac nh li giai ti u co iu kin nm th hai sao cho li
nhun at cc ai trong ca hai nm cui (th hai va th ba). Li nhn cc ai trong hai
nm cui f
2
(X
2
) khi ngun vn t vao nm th hai la X
2
co dang:
f
2
(X
2
) = max [x
2
2
+ 2 (X
2
- x
2
)
2
+ f
1
(X
3
)]
Ma trn ta a tnh c f
1
(X
3
) = 2X
3
2

Trong o :
X
3
= x
3
+ (X
3
- x
3
) = ax
2
+ b (X
2
- x
2
) = 0,75x
2
+ 0,3 (X
2
- x
2
)
Thay gia r f
1
(X
3
) vao ham f
2
(X
2
) ta nhn c mt a thc bc 2 cn tm cc
ai. Ham f
1
(X
2
) cung la mt parabol lom va co gia tr cc ai bin ( hnh 3-1). Giai ra
nhn c :
Vi x
2
= 0 co f
2
(X
2
) = 2,18 X
2
2
Vi x
2
= 0 co f
2
(X
2
) = 2,125X
2
2

Nh vy am bao sach lc ti u cho ca hai nm cui th nm th hai toan
b ngun vn X
2
cung dung san xut mt hang B. Khi o li nhun cc ai cua ca
hai nm cui la:
f
2
(X
2
) = 2,18X
2
2
khi lng vn con lai sau nm u la X
2

c. Buoc 3: Ta xac nh li giai ti u co iu kin cho nm u tin sao cho at
cc ai li nhun trong ca ba nm va co gia tr f
3
(X
1
) ng vi ngun vn u t vao nm
th nht la X
1
:
f
3
(X
1
) = max [x
1
2
+ 2 (X
1
- x
1
)
2
+ f
2
(X
2
)]
0 x
1
X
1

Ma a tnh c :
f
2
(X
2
) = 2,18 X
2
2
= 2,18 [0,75 x
1
+ 0,3 (X
1
-x
1
)]
2

Thay gia tr f
2
(X
2
) vao ham f
3
(X
1
) khao sat cc ai. Tng t nh hai trng
hp trn, ham f
3
(X
1
) la mt parabol lom, gia tr cc ai at bin (x
1
= 0 va x
1
= X
1
)
2
3
X
2
3
2X
3
X
3
3
2
X

3
3
1
X

f
1
(X
3
)
X
3
Hnh 3-1
38
Vi x
1
= 0 co f
1
(X
1
) = 2,20 X
1
2

Vi x
1
= X
1
co f
1
(X
1
) = 2,23 X
1
2

Vy am bao co sach lc ti u phn phi ngun vn trong 3 nm th trong
nm th nht phai co x
1
= X
1
, ngha la toan b ngun vn dung san xut mt hang A.
Li nhun cc ai sau 3 nm cua x nghip la :
f
3
(X
1
) = 2,23X
1
2

Tom lai khi cho ngun vn ban u X
1
ta a nhn c sach lc ti u gm
mt day quyt nh nh sau:
x
1
= X
1
; x
2
= 0; x
3
= 0
va f
3
(X
1
) = 2,23X
1
2

Qua th du trn y cn chu y my im sau y :
1. Trn y ch khao sat qua trnh san xut la 3 nm. Khi s nm khao sat la n
(n> 3) ma nhng s liu cua bai toan g(x), h(X
1
-x
1
), a, b nh cu th co th suy ra c
sach lc ti u nh sau:
Hai nm cui cung toan b vn dung san xut mt hang B, con t nm u
cho n nm th (n - 3) toan b vn dung san xut mt hang A.
2. Kt qua cua v du trn y la nhng trng hp c bit, mi bc toan b
ngun hoc cho i tng A hoc cho B. Thc t thng gp trng hp mi bc ca
hai i tng A va B u nhn ngun vn, iu o ng vi trng hp ham f
n
(X
1
);
f
n-1
(X
2
) ... la nhng a thc at cc ai vi gia tr x
i
trong khoang 0 < x
i
< X
i
.
3. Trong v du trn cac ham g(x
i
) va f(X
i
- x
i
) u giai tch va kha vi nn s dung
c nhng phep tnh vi phn. y vic tm cc tr trong khng gian 3 chiu (x
1
, x
2
,
x
3
) nh tinh thn cua phng phap quy hoach ng a chuyn v tm cc tr trong
khng gian 1 chiu (mt th nguyn) trong tng bc.

3.4. PHUONG PHAP QHD KHI HAM MUC TIU CO DANG TNG:
Trong thc t, nhiu trng hp ham muc tiu c biu din trong dang a
thc, la tng cua nhiu thanh phn. Li nhun cua x nghip trong n nm bng tng li
nhun cac nm; chi ph nhin liu san xut in nng cua toan h thng bng tng
chi ph nhin liu cua cac nha may in cung lam vic trong h thng .v.v....Ta xet bai
toan sau y:

3.4.1. Bai toan phn phi tai nguyn:
Co mt loai tai nguyn ( nhn cng, tin, may moc, nguyn liu...) tr lng la b
cn phn phi cho n n v san xut j (hoc n cng vic) vi (j = 1...n).
Bit rng nu phn phi cho n v th j mt lng tai nguyn la xj th ta thu
c hiu qua la C
j
(x
j
).
Bai toan t ra la: Hay tm cach phn phi lng tai nguyn b cho n dn v san
xut j sao cho tng s hiu qua la ln nht, ngha la tm cac nghim x
j
sao cho:
vi cac rang buc
19) - (3 max ) (
1

=
n
j
j j
x C
39

K hiu bai toan trn la bai toan P
n
(b).
Goi hiu qua ti u cua bai toan P
n
(b) la f
n
(b).

3.4.2.Phuong phap phuong trinh truy toan: ( Phim ham Bellman)
giai bai toan trn ta thc hin vic lng bai toan P
n
(b) vao ho cac bai toan
(qua trnh) sau:
Vi cac rang buc
Goi bai toan trn la P
k
().
Khi cho k va thay i, bai toan P
k
() se thay i tao thanh ho cac bai toan
cha bai toan ban u khi k = n, = b ngha la a chuyn qua trnh tnh thanh qua trnh
ng (nhiu giai oan, hay nhiu bc tuy y ngha cua bai toan).
Goi hiu qua ti u cua bai toan P
k
() la f
k
().
Ap dung nguyn tc ti u cua Qui hoach ng giai bai toan P
k
() nh sau:
Gia s phn phi cho n v th k mt lng tai nguyn la x
k
va nhn c hiu
qua la C
k
(x
k
), lng tai nguyn con lai (-x
k
) se phn phi cho (k-1) n v con lai nhn
c hiu qua ti u la f
k-1
(-x
k
), nh vy hiu qua tng cng cua k n v se la:
C
k
(x
k
) + f
k-1
(-x
k
) (3-23)
Nh vy cn tm x
k
sao cho hiu qua tng cng tnh theo cng thc (3-23) la ln
nht, ngha la hiu qua ti u f
k
() c xac nh nh sau:
y chnh la phng trnh truy toan cua Qui hoach ng (con goi la phng
trnh phim ham Bellman). a bit f
1
() chnh la C
1
() vi thay i, thay gia tr f
1

vao (3-6) se xac nh c f
2
():
Bit f
2
() se tnh c f
3
() .... cho k va thay i cui cung se tnh c hiu
qua ti u f
n
(b) cua bai toan P
n
(b).
21) - (3 , 1 max ) (
1
n k x C
k
j
j j
=
=
22) - (3 , 1 0
, 0
1
n j x
b x
j
k
j
j
=
=
=

{ }
= +
k
k
x
k k k k
f x f x C
0
24) - (3
) 1 )
) ( ( ( max
{ }

= +
2
2
0
25) - (3
) 2 1 ) 2 2
) ( ( ( max
x
f x f x C
20) - (3 , 1 0
1
n j x
b x
j
n
j
j
=
=
40
3.4.3. Ap dung d giai bai toan thuc t:
Vi du 3-2:
Mt cng ty u t mua 6 may mi phn b cho 3 n v san xut. Bit rng
nu phn phi x
j
may cho n v th j se mang lai hiu qua la C
j
(x
j
) cho trong bang 3-1.
Hay tm phng an phn b cac chic may sao cho mang lai hiu qua cao nht?
Bang 3-1.
Tin lai (Triu ng)
S may c phn phi
C
1
(x) C
2
(x) C
3
(x)
0 0 0 0
1 4 2 3
2 6 4 4
3 7 6 4
4 8 7 4
5 8 8 4
6 8 9 4
Din at bai toan di dang toan hoc nh sau:
Hay tm cac nghim x
j
sao cho at cc ai ham muc tiu:
thoa man cac rang buc:
x
1
+ x
2
+ x
3
= 6
x
j
0 j = (1,3)
Goi f
k
() la hiu qua ti u ( tin lai ln nht ) khi phn phi may cho k n
v san xut. Phng trnh phim ham Bellman nh sau:
Ta co f
1
() = C
1
(), thay i k = (1,3) va = (0,6) co cac bc tnh toan sau:

a. Cho k = 1 va thay i = (0,6)
f
1
(0) = 0; f
1
(1) = 4;
f
1
(2) = 6; f
1
(3) = 7;
f
1
(4) = 8; f
1
(5) = 8;
f
1
(6) = 8;

b. Cho k = 2 va thay i = (0,6)
f
2
(0) = 0;
max ) (
3
1

= j
j j
x C
{ }
= +
k
k
x
k k k k
f x f x C
0

) 1 )
) ( ( ( max
41

{ }
{ }
{ }
{ }
{ }
{ } 6 ) 0 4 ( ); 4 2 ( ); 6 0 ( max
) 0 ( ) 2 ( ); 1 ( ) 1 ( ); 2 ( ) 0 ( max
2 x 0
) 2 ( ) ( max ) 2 (
4 ) 0 2 ( ); 4 0 ( max
) 1 ( ) 0 ( ); 0 ( ) 1 ( max
1 x 0
) 1 ( ) ( max ) 1 (
1 2 1 2 1 2
2
2 1 2 2 2
1 2 1 2
2
2 1 2 2 2
= + + + =
+ + + =

+ =
= + + =
+ + =

+ =
f C f C f C
x f x C f
f C f C
x f x C f

{ }
{ }
{ }
{ }
{ }
{ } 10 ) 0 7 ( ); 4 6 ( ); 6 4 ( ); 7 2 ( ); 8 0 ( max
) 0 ( ) 4 ( ); 1 ( ) 3 ( ); 2 ( ) 2 ( ); 3 ( ) 1 ( ); 4 ( ) 0 ( max
4 x 0
) 4 ( ) ( max ) 4 (
8 ) 0 6 ( ); 4 4 ( ); 6 2 ( ); 7 0 ( max
) 0 ( ) 3 ( ); 1 ( ) 2 ( ); 2 ( ) 1 ( ); 3 ( ) 0 ( max
3 x 0
) 3 ( ) ( max ) 3 (
1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2
2
2 1 2 2 2
1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2
2
2 1 2 2 2
= + + + + + =
+ + + + + =

+ =
= + + + + =
+ + + + =

+ =
f C f C f C f C f C
x f x C f
f C f C f C f C
x f x C f

{ }
{ }
{ }
{ } 13 ) 0 9 ( ); 4 8 ( ); 6 7 ( ); 7 6 ( ); 8 4 ( ); 8 2 ( ); 8 0 ( max
); 0 ( ) 6 ( ); 1 ( ) 5 ( ); 2 ( ) 4 (
); 3 ( ) 3 ( ); 4 ( ) 2 ( ); 5 ( ) 1 ( ); 6 ( ) 0 (
max
6 x 0
) 6 ( ) ( max ) 6 (
12 ) 0 8 ( ); 4 7 ( ); 6 6 ( ); 7 4 ( ); 8 2 ( ); 8 0 ( max
) 0 ( ) 5 ( ); 1 ( ) 4 (
); 2 ( ) 3 ( ); 3 ( ) 2 ( ); 4 ( ) 1 ( ); 5 ( ) 0 (
max
5 x 0
) 5 ( ) ( max ) 5 (
1 2 1 2 1 2
1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2
2
2 1 2 2 2
1 2 1 2
1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2
2
2 1 2 2 2
= + + + + + + + =

+ + +
+ + + +
=

+ =
= + + + + + + =

+ +
+ + + +
=

+ =
f C f C f C
f C f C f C f C
x f x C f
f C f C
f C f C f C f C
x f x C f

c. Cho k = 3: Ta xet ngay trng hp = 6 (V khng cn chun b s liu
tnh f
4
, vi k = 4, do chi co 3 n v san xut)

{ }
{ } 15 ) 0 4 ( ); 4 4 ( ); 6 4 ( ); 8 4 ( ); 10 4 ( ); 12 3 ( ); 13 0 ( max
); 0 ( ) 6 ( ); 1 ( ) 5 ( ); 2 ( ) 4 (
); 3 ( ) 3 ( ); 4 ( ) 2 ( ); 5 ( ) 1 ( ); 6 ( ) 0 (
max
6 x 0
) 6 ( ) ( max ) 6 (
2 3 2 3 2 3
2 3 2 3 2 3 2 3
3
3 2 3 3 3
= + + + + + + + =

+ + +
+ + + +
=

+ =
f C f C f C
f C f C f C f C
x f x C f

Vy hiu qua ti u khi em 6 chic may phn phi cho 3 n v san xut se la:
f
3
(6) = C
3
(1) + f
2
(5) = C
3
(1) + C
2
(3) + f
1
(2) = C
3
(1) C
2
(3) C
1
(2) = 15 triu ng
Phng an phn phi ti u la:
x
1
= 2; x
2
= 3; x
3
= 1
42
3.5. PHUONG PHAP QUY HOACH DNG XAC DJNH CO CU TI UU
CAC T MAY LAM VIC
Mt trong nhng bai toan quan trong cn giai quyt khi vn hanh va thit k h
thng in la ng vi mi thi im cn xac nh s t may lam vic va cng sut ng
vi mi t may sao cho ai cc tr mt ham muc tiu nao o. Ch tiu ti u y co
th la chi ph tnh toan v san xut in nng la nho nht, la tng in nng san xut ra
la cc ai, tin cy cung cp in cua toan h thng at cc ai .v.v... n gian ch
tiu ti u thng xet theo cc tiu lng nhin liu tiu hao trong toan h thng.
Xet phn phi ti u cng sut gia cac nha may trong h thng theo ham muc
tiu la tng chi ph nhin liu trong toan h thng la be nht. Khi o gia thit rng
mi thi im s t may n va phu tai tng P
n
a bit, cn xac nh P
i
; i = 1, 2... n sao
cho chi ph nhin liu B
min.
Trong muc nay se s dung phng phap quy hoach ng xet bai toan xac nh
s t may ti u cn thit lam viec tng thi im (giai oan) ng thi xac nh
lng cng sut ti u phn phi gia chung. Nh vy y tng ng vi bai toan
xac nh sach lc ti u phn phi ngun vn tng P
ft
cho n i tng P
1
, P
2
... P
n
trong
ca thi ky nhiu bc t = 1, 2 ..., T sao cho at cc tiu v chi ph nhin liu tng B
.
Trc ht n gian, ta gia thit la s lng t may lam vic ch phu thuc vao
ch tiu lng nhin liu tiu hao ma cha xet n anh hng cua vic ngng hoc m
lai t may, ngha la y cha xet n tn hao nhiu liu khi m may. Vi gia thit o
th qua trnh co th xet c lp mi thi im. iu nay ung i vi cac nha may
nhit in v gia thit rng lng ngun nhin liu khng b han ch. i vi thuy in
cn thn trong hn, v quyt nh lng cng sut bc nay co anh hng nhiu n
quyt nh cua bc sau v phai am bao lng nc tiu hao khng i cho ca chu ky
iu tit.
Nh vy trc ht ta xet c cu ti u cac t may nhit in lam vic mi thi
im va phn phi ti u cng sut gia chung, ngha la bai toan c phat biu nh
sau: Gia thit h thng gm n t may nhit in. ng vi mi thi im t trong giai
oan T, cn xac nh cac gia tr cng sut phat cua cac t may.
Sao cho :
B
=
n
i 1
B
i
(P
i
) min (3-26)
va thoa man rang buc :

=
n
i 1
P
i
= P
ft
(3-27)
P
imin
P
i
P
imax
(3-28)
Trong o B
i
(P
i
) la quan h gia chi ph nhin liu cua t may i khi phat cng
sut P
i
, P
ft
la yu cu v cng sut tng cua h thng co k n tn hao trong mang
in. y P
ft
chnh la lng ngun vn tng cn phn phi cho n i tng.
Li giai [P
i
] ; i = 1, 2, ...,n thoa man cac iu kin trn se cho ta bit v c cu
ti u cac t may, ng vi P
k
= 0 chng to thi im o khng nn cho t may k lam
vic.
43
Sau y trnh bay thut toan giai da trn phng trnh phim ham Bellman.

3.5.1. Thun toan dua trn phuong trinh phin ham Bellman
y ta s dung phng phap quy hoach ng trong sach lc phn phi ti u
(ngun vn) cng sut P
ft
cho n i tng. Gia thit i tng th n a nhn cng sut
P
n
, theo nguyn ly ti u cua quy hoach ng, du P
n
la bao nhiu, th s ngun con lai
(P
ft
- P
n
) cung phai phn phi mt cach ti u cho ( n - 1) i tng con lai. Khi o chi
ph nhin liu trong toan h thng la:
B (P
1
, ...., P
n
) = B
n
(P
n
) + f
n-1
(P
ft
- P
n
) (3-29)
Trong o B
n
(P
n
) la chi ph nhin liu cua t may th n khi cng sut phat ra la P
n

f
n-1
(P
ft
- P
n
) la chi ph nhin liu cc tiu khi phn phi lng cng sut (P
ft
- P
n
)
cho (n - 1) t may con lai.
Vic chon t may nao la th n khng anh hng n kt qua tnh toan B (P
1
, ...,
P
n
). T y ta co phng trnh phim ham Bellman trong trng hp nay nh sau:
f
n
(P
ft
) = min {B
n
(P
n
) + f
n-1
(P
f1
- P
n
)} (3-30)
0 P
n
P
ft

Trong o f
n
(P
ft
) la chi ph nhin liu cc tiu khi phn lng cng sut tng P
ft

cho n t may nhit in. Biu thc (3-30) co dang truy chng nh a bit, va vic giai
cung se c tin hanh theo hai qua trnh:
Qua trnh ngc nhm xac nh li giai ti u co iu kin, ngha la xac nh c
cu t may ti u vi nhng gia tr ngun khac nhau khi bt u t bc cui cung,
y la mt t may. Sau o xac nh ti u co iu kin cua hai bc cui cung, y la
hai t may .v.v... cho n n t may. Nh vy qua trnh ngc la chun b y u thng
tin v li giai ti u phuc vu cho qua trnh thun tip theo.
Trong qua trnh thun, cn c vao P
ft
a cho, da vao nhng kt qua chun b
qua trnh ngc, xac nh c c cu ti u cac t may lam vic va phn phi ti u
cng sut gia chung.
Sau y trnh bay thut toan cua qua trnh ngc va thun giai bai toan a
nu.
Qua trnh ngc bao gm cac bc sau y :
1. Tm li giai ti u co iu kin i vi tng t may, ngha la xac nh B
i
(P
i
);
i= 1, 2, ..., n, trong o P
i
nhn cac gia tr t P
i
= 0 n P
imax
. Trong trng hp c tnh
tiu hao nhin liu B
i
(P
i
) cho i trong dang bang s, ta co th s dung trc tip. Kt qua
tnh bc nay c ghi vao b nh, chnh la cac gia tr f
1
(P
i
) = B
i
(P
i
)
2. i vi trng hp hai t may, ta ap dung phng trnh phim ham Bellman,
cn xac nh:
f
2
(P
ft
) = min {B
2
(P
2
) + f
1
(P
ft
- P
2
)} (3-31)
P
2min
P
2
P
2max

Trong o f
2
(P
ft
) la chi ph nhin liu cc tiu khi phn phi phu tai P
ft
cho hai t
may; f
1
(P
ft
- P
2
) la chi ph nhin liu cc tiu cua t may mt khi co lng phu tai chung
la P
ft
va t may th hai nhn P
2
.
44
ng vi bc nay, xac nh li giai ti u co iu kin ta cn thc hin hai
chu trnh.
* Chu trnh trong: Cho gia tr P
ft
la cc tiu : P
ftmin
va thay i gia tr P
2
t 0 n
P
2max
(hoc t P
2min
). Vi mi gia tr P
2
ta tnh chi ph nhin liu cho hai t may, sau o
so sanh ly gia tr min, theo biu thc (3-31). Nh vy ng vi mt gia tr phu tai P
ftmin

trong trng hp 2 t may, ta ghi c tr s ti u P
2
(P
ftmin
) la cng sut cn phat cua
t may 2. Tt nhin P
1
= P
ftmin
- P
2
. Ngoai ra cung ghi c gia tr chi ph nhin liu cc
tiu khi phn phi P
ftmin
cho hai t may.
* Chu trnh gia: By gi cho gia tr P
ft
tng dn, t P
ft
= P
f1min
= P n
P
f1
=2P ..., trong o P la bc cng sut chung trong h thng (thng cn c theo
bang s liu a cho).
ng vi mi gia tr P
ft
ta lai thay i gia tr P
2
nh trnh bay chu trnh trong va
xac nh c P
2
(P
ftmin
+ KP) va f
2
( P
ftmin
+ KP); K = 1,2,...
Tng dn gia tr P
ft
n P
ftmax
= P
1max
+ P
2max

Tom lai cui bc hai nay, i vi hai t may ta ghi c mt day kt qua v
phn phi ti u cac phu tai P
ftmin
; (P
ftmin
+ KP); ...; (P
1max
+ P
2max
) cho hai t may.
Nhng kt qua o la :
P
2
(P
ftmin
+ KP) va f
2
(P
f1min
+ KP); K = 1,2,....
Nhng s liu nay chun b cho qua trnh thun sau nay.
3. Trn y la cng vic chun b cho hai t may. By gi tip tuc tnh cho 3
t may ta thc hin nh sau:
* Chu trnh ngoai: Cho s t may tng n 3. ng vi s t may nht nh (n =
3) qua trnh tnh toan lp lai hai chu trnh trong va gia, ngha la lai thay i gia tr P
3

(vi P
ft
c nh) sau o lai thay i P
ft
.
Nh vy ng vi 3 t may, cung xac nh c gia tr cng sut ti u cua t
may th ba P
3
(P
ft
+ KP) va gia tr cc tiu cua chi ph nhin liu cho ba t may
f
3
(P
ft
+KP) khi phu tai thay i (P
ft
+ KP) , K = 0,1, 2 ...Nhng kt qua nay u c
ghi vao b nh may tnh.
4. Xet tip cho 4, 5, ..., n t may
n y kt thuc qua trnh ngc va cng vic chun b a xong, ngha la a co
cac b s liu sau:
B
i
(P
i
); i = 1, 2, ..., n
f
2
(P
ft
); P
2
(P
ft
)
f
3
(P
ft
); P
3
(P
ft
)
..............
f
n
(P
ft
); P
n
(P
ft
)
Trong o P
ft
c nhn cac gia tr khac nhau, t P
ftmin
n P
ftmax
ng vi mi
bc (1, 2, ..., n t may)
Qua trnh chun b gm ba chu trnh: trong, gia va ngoai trn y co th m ta
s lc nh gian khi nh sau (hnh 3-2).
45

Hnh 3-2

k := k + 1
P
ft
:= P
ft
+ P
P
k
:= P
k
+ P
Tnh f
k
(P
ft
) = B
k
(P
k
) + f
k-1
(P
ft
- P
k
)
P
k
= P
kmax
Chon F
k
= Min {f
k
(P
ft
)}
P
ft
= P
ftmax
k = n
IN KT QUA
DNG MAY
Nhp s liu
S
S
S
46
Tip theo trong qua trnh thun, cn c vao phu tai tng a cho thi im ang
xet
( ) n
ft
P va s lng t may n co kha nng tham gia, ta se xac nh c s t may co
gia tr P
i
0;
Bit P
ft
va s n da vao s liu qua trnh ngc, t b nh rut ra c P
n
va
f
n
(P
ft
), ngha la xac nh c gia tr cng sut ti u cua t may th n va chi ph nhin
liu cc tiu cho n t may. Nu tm ra P
n
= 0, co ngha la t may th n khng lam vic.
Tip theo xac nh phu tai ng vi (n - 1) t may con lai :

( ) 1 n
ft
P =
( ) n
ft
P - P
n

ng vi lng phu tai
( ) 1 n
ft
P nay, vi (n - 1) t may ta tra c gia tr P
n-1
va f
n-1
(
( ) 1 n
ft
P ).
Tip tuc lam nh vy cho n khi con mt t may (t may th nht) va xac nh c
P
n
, P
n-1
,..., P
2
, P
1
thoa man
B
n
(P
n
) + B
n-1
(P
n-1
) + ... + B
2
(P
2
) + B
1
(P
1
) min

( ) n
ft
n
i
i
P P =
=1

Trn y a trnh bay thu tuc xac nh c cu ti u cac t may lam vic va phn
phi ti u cng sut gia chung, ng vi gia tr phu tai tng P
ft
mt thi im nht
nh. Khi phu tai tng thay i nhng thi im khac nhau qua trnh tnh toan lp lai
tng t.

3.5.2. Dc dim khi xut hin thuy din trong h thng
Gia thit trong h thng co nhng t may thuy in co th iu chnh cng sut
phat P
Ti
theo chu ky iu tit cua h cha nc.
Bai toan xac nh c cu va phn phi ti u cng sut gia cac t may nhit va
thuy in trong trng hp nay phai thoa man nhng rang buc sau y :
- Chi ph nhin liu cua toan h thng trong ca chu ky khao sat la cc tiu
(B
min).
- Lng nc tiu thu bi mi nha may thuy in trong chu ky iu tit khng
vt gia tr cho phep Q
cf
.
- Thoa man v cn bng cng sut trong toan h thng tai mi thi im cua chu
ky khao sat.
giai bai toan nay ta vn s dung thut toan cua quy hoach ng, nhng cn
lu y nhng im sau y.
i vi cac t may nhit in vn s dung nhng quan h chi ph nhin liu
B
i
(P
i
), trong dang giai tch hoc bang s thng k. Nhng i vi t may thuy in phai
chuyn thanh t may nhit in quy i, khi o ta nhn toan b gia tr lu lng nc
Q
k
vi h s hiu qua nng lng trong quan h Q
k
= f (P
Tk
) cua t may thuy in k.
Sau o cung tin hanh qua trnh chun b xac nh li giai ti u co iu kin ng
vi cac gia tr phu tai tng P
ft
khac nhau.
Trong qua trnh thun sau khi xac nh c gia tr P
i
; i = 1, 2, ...n nhng thi
im khac nhau trong chu ky iu tit, ngha la xac nh c th phu tai cua cac t
may. Nhng gia tr nay la kt qua ng vi mt gia tr a chon. V vy phai kim tra
47
iu kin rang buc v lu lng nc cho phep trong chu ky iu tit cua thuy in.
Nu khng thoa man rang buc, ngha la gia tr lu lng tnh toan Q
it
Q
cf
th phai
chon lai gia tr va tnh lai cac qua trnh ngc va thun trn .
Tom lai li giai ti u cua bai toan xac nh c cu t may va phn phi cng
sut gia chung trong trng hp co nhit in va thuy in la s kt hp phng phap
chon dn h s cua thuy in vi thut toan cua quy hoach ng.
* Chu y : Trong trng hp h thng gm toan cac t may thuy in, thut toan
giai theo phng phap quy hoach ng hoan toan nh i vi h gm toan nhit in,
khi o ham muc tiu la cc tiu lng tiu hao nc.

3.5.3. Ap dung d giai bai toan thuc t:
Vi du 3-3: Xac nh c cu ti u cac t may lam vic va phn b cng sut ti
u gia chung trong nha may nhit in gm 3 t may co c tnh tiu hao nhin liu
cho trong bang 3-2.
Bang 3-2 .
P
ft
[MW] 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
B
1
[tn/h] 2 3 3,5 4 5 6 8
B
2
[tn/h] 1 2 2,5 4,5 5,5 7 9
B
3
[tn/h] 3 3 3 4 5,2 6,7 10
Ta bt u bng qua trnh ngc nhm chun b cac li giai ti u co iu kin
vi s t may khac nhau va phu tai tng P
ft
khac nhau s dung trong qua trnh thun
tm li giai cua bai toan phn b ti u.
Trng hp nha may ch co mt t may, ta co chi ph nhin liu cc tiu chnh
la gia tr B
i
(P
i
) vi i=(1,3) nh trong bang 3-2.
Trng hp co 2 t may, cn xac nh chi ph nhin liu cc tiu khi 2 t may
nhn phu tai chung la P
ft
. Ta thay i gia tr cua P
ft
t P
1min
(hoc P
2min
) n (P
1max
+P
2max
)
theo bc cng sut cho trong bang 3-2 va ng vi mi gia tr cua P
ft
tng ta thay i cac
gia tr cua P
1
, P
2
chon gia tr min cua chi ph nhin liu tng theo phng trnh phim
ham Bellman.
f
2
(P
ft
) = Min { B
2
(P
2
) + f
1
(P
ft
- P
2
)} = Min {B
2
(P
2
) + B
1
(P
ft
-P
2
)}
0 P
2
12
Chng han:
Khi P
ft
= 0, cho P
1
= 0, P
2
= 0; Ta co f
2
(0) = Min {B
2
(0) + B
1
(0)} = 2+1 = 3
Khi P
ft
= 2: f
2
(2)=Min{B
2
(0) + B
1
(2); B
2
(2) + B
1
(0)}= Min{1+3; 2+2}=4
Khi Pft = 4:
f
2
(4)=Min{B
2
(0)+B
1
(4); B
2
(2)+B
1
(2); B
2
(4)+B
1
(0)}= Min{1+3,5; 3+2; 2,5+2}= 4,5.
C th tip tuc cho n P
ft
= 24 MW
tin li cho qua ttrnh thun ta dung bang 3-3 tnh toan ghi lai cac kt qua.
ng vi mi gia tr phu tai bng tng cng sut phat cua 2 t may (P
ft
=P
1
+P
2
), ta
co cac gia tr chi ph nhin liu cua ca 2 t may ghi theo cac trn ng cheo co
48
P
ft
=P
1
+P
2
, t cac gia ttr trn ng cheo nay ta chon gia tr min, o chnh la gia tr
f
2
(P
ft
) khi P
ft
=P
1
+P
2
, trong o P
1
va P
2
la cng sut phat ti u cua 2 t may1 va 2.
Trong bang 3-2 cac gia tr f
2
(P
ft
) nay c khoanh tron.
qua trnh thun, gia s nha may co 2 t may 1 va 2 lam vic va P
ft
= 10MW,
da vao bang 3-2 trn ng cheo P
ft
= 10MW ta co f
2
(10) = 6,5 tn/h va c cu ti u
phat cng sut cua cac t may la: P
1
(10) = 6MW; P
2
(10) = 4MW.
Tng t: f
2
(16) = 10,5 tn/h P
1
(16) = 10MW P
2
(16) = 6MW
f
2
(20) = 13,0 tn/h P
1
(20) = 10MW P
2
(20) = 10MW
Bang 3-3 .
P
ft
0 2 4 6 8
P1 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 10
P2 B2\B1 2 3 3.5 4 5 6 8 12
0 1 3 4 4.5 5 6 7 9 14
2 2 4 5 5.5 6 7 8 10 16
4 2.5 4.5 5.5 6 6.5 7.5 8.5 10.5 18
6 4.5 6.5 7.5 8 8.5 9.5 10.5 12.5 20
8 5.5 7.5 8.5 9 9.5 10.5 11.5 13.5 22
10 7 9 10 11 11 12 13 15 24
12 9 11 12 13 13 14 15 17
Tip theo cn tnh toan cho trng hp nha may co 3 t may lam vic:
f
3
(P
ft
) = Min { B
3
(P
3
) + f
2
(P
ft
- P
3
)}
0 P
3
12
Trong o B
3
(P
3
) ly t bang 3-2 va f
2
(P
ft
-P
3
) ly t bang 3-3.
Kt qua tnh toan nh trn bang 3-4.
Bang 3-4 .
P
ft
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
P12 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 22
P3 B3\f2 3 4 4.5 5 6 6.5 7.5 8.5 10.5 11.5 13 15 17 24
0 3 6 7 7.5 8 9 9.5 10.5 11.5 13.5 14.5 16 18 20 26
2 3 6 7 7.5 8 9 9.5 10.5 11.5 13.5 14.5 16 18 20 28
4 3 6 7 7.5 8 9 9.5 10.5 11.5 13.5 14.5 22 18 20 30
6 4 7 8 8.5 9 10 10.5 11.5 12.5 14.5 15.5 17 19 21 32
8 5.2 8.2 9.2 9.7 10.2 11.2 11.7 12.7 13.7 15.7 16.7 18.2 20.2 22.2 34
10 6.7 9.7 10.7 11.2 11.7 12.7 13.2 14.2 15.2 17.2 18.2 19.7 21.7 23.7 36
12 10 13 14 14.5 15 16 16.5 17.5 18.5 20.5 21.5 23 25 27

Da vao bang 3-4 va bang 3-3 co th xac nh c c cu phn b ti u cng
sut gia cac t may va chi phi nhin liu cc tiu khi bit phu tai tng P
ft
.
a. Xet truong hop phu tai tng P
ft
20MW
- T bang 3-4 theo ng cheo ng vi P
ft
= 20MW ta tra c f
3
(20) =
12,5tn/h va tng ng P
3
(20) = 6MW, P
1-2
(20) = 14MW.
ft
= 14MW ta tra c f
2
(14) = 8,5 tn/h
va tng ng co c P
1
(14) = 10MW, P
2
(14) = 4MW.
49
- Nh vy, khi P
ft
= 20MW ta co c cu phn b ti u cng sut cho cac t may
nh sau: P
1
= 10MW, P
2
= 4MW , P
3
= 6MW va chi ph nhin liu cc tiu la 12,5
tn/h.
- Phng an phn b ti n trn la duy nht.

b. Xet truong hop phu tai tng P
ft
18MW
ft
= 18MW ta tra c f
3
(18) =
11,5tn/h va tng ng P
3
(18) = 4MW, P
1-2
(18) = 14MW, hoc P
3
(18) = 6MW , P
1-2
(18)
= 12MW.
ft
= 14MW ta tra c f
2
(14) = 8,5 tn/h
va tng ng co c P
1
(14) = 10MW, P
2
(14) = 4MW. Hoc theo ng cheo ng vi
trng hp P
ft
= 12MW ta tra c f
2
(12) = 7,5 tn/h va tng ng co c
P
1
(12)=8MW, P
2
(12) = 4MW.
- Nh vy, khi P
ft
= 18MW ta co 2 phng an phn b ti u cng sut cho cac
t may nh sau: P
1
= 10MW, P
2
= 4MW , P
3
= 4MW hoc P
1
= 8MW, P
2
= 4MW ,
P
3
=6MW va chi ph nhin liu cc tiu la 11,5 tn/h.
- Phng an phn b ti n trn la khng duy nht.
thun tin cho vic s dung trong qua trnh vn hanh, chung ta co th tnh
toan trc cac phng an phn b ti u cng sut tng vi phu tai tng a bit nh
trn bang3-5 .
Bang 3-5 .
P
ft

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
f
3
(t/h)
6 6 6 7 7,5 8 9 9,5 10,5 11,5
P
1
(MW)
0 0 0 0 4 6 8 6 8 10
P
2
(MW)
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 4
P
3
(MW)
0 2 4 6 4 4 4 4 4 4

P
ft

20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36
f
3
(t/h)
12,5 13,7 15,2 16,7 18,2 19,7 21,7 23,7 27
P
1
(MW)
10 10 10 10 10 10 10 12 12
P
2
(MW)
4 4 4 8 10 10 12 12 12
P
3
(MW)
6 8 10 8 8 10 10 10 12

50
Chng 4
NHNG KHAI NIM C BAN V TIN CY

4.1 MO DU

tin cy la ch tiu then cht trong s phat trin ky thut, c bit la khi xut
hin nhng h thng phc tap nhm hoan thanh nhng chc nng quan trong trong cac
lanh vc cng nghip khac nhau.
tin cy cua phn t hoc cua ca h thng c anh gia mt cach nh lng
da trn hai yu t c ban la: tnh lam vic an toan va tnh sa cha c.
H thng la tp hp nhng phn t (PT) tng tac trong mt cu truc nht nh
nhm thc hin mt nhim vu xac nh, co s iu khin thng nht s hoat ng cung
nh s phat trin.
V du: Trong HT cac phn t la may phat in, MBA, ng dy..... nhim vu
cu HT la san xut va truyn tai phn phi in nng n cac h tiu thu. in nng
phai am bao cac ch tiu cht lng phap nh nh in ap, tn s, va tin cy hp ly
(TC khng phai la mt ch tiu phap nh, nhng xu th phai tr thanh mt ch tiu
phap nh v mc hp ly nao o ).
HT phai c phat trin mt cach ti u va vn hanh vi hiu qua kinh t cao
nht.
V mt tin cy HT la mt h thng phc tap th hin ca c im:
- S lng cac phn t rt ln.
- Cu truc phc tap.
- Rng ln trong khng gian.
-Phat trin khng ngng theo thi gian.
-Hoat ng phc tap.
V vy HT thng c quan ly phn cp, co th quan ly, iu khin s phat
trin, cung nh vn hanh mt cach hiu qua.
HT la h thng phuc hi, cac phn t cua no co th b hong sau o c phuc
hi va lai a vao hoat ng.
Phn t la mt b phn tao thanh h thng ma trong qua trnh nghin cu tin
cy nht nh, no c xem nh la mt tng th khng chia ct c ( v du nh linh kin,
thit b.....) ma tin cy a cho trc, hoc xac nh da trn nhng s liu thng k.
Phn t y co th hiu theo mt cach rng rai hn. Ban thn phn t cung co
th co cu truc phc tap, nu xet ring no la mt h thng.
V du : MF la mt HT rt phc tap nu xet ring no, nhng khi nghin cu TC
cua HT ta co th xem MF la mt phn t vi cac thng s c trng co TC nh
51
cng hong hoc, thi gian phuc hi, xac sut MF lam vic an toan trong khoang
thi gian qui nh a c xac nh.
a s phn t cua h thng la phn t phuc hi . Tnh phuc hi cua phn t th
hin bi kha nng ngn nga phat trin va loai tr s c nh sach lc bao quan nh ky
(BQK) hoc sa cha phuc hi khi s c.

4.2 DJNH NGHIA V D TIN CY
tin cy P(t) cua phn t ( hoc cua h thng ) la xac sut trong sut
khoang thi gian khao sat t, phn t o vn hanh an toan.
P(t) c nh ngha nh biu thc sau:
P(t) = P { t } (4-1)
trong o la thi gian lin tuc vn hanh an toan cua phn t. Biu thc (4-1) ch
rng phn t mun vn hanh an toan trong khoang thi gian t th gia tr cua t phai be hn
gia tr qui nh .
Biu thc trn cung noi rng phn t ch vn hanh an toan vi mt xac xut nao
o (0 P 1) trong sut khoang thi gian t. Khi bt u vn hanh ngha la thi im
t=0, phn t bao gi cung lam vic tt nn P(0) = 1. Ngc lai thi gian cang keo dai, kha
nng vn hanh an toan cua phn t cang giam i va khi t , theo qui lut phat trin cua
vt cht trong tac ng tan pha cua thi gian, nht nh phn t phai h hong, ngha la
P() = 0.
Khi nghin cu tin cy, cac phn t thng chia thanh hai loai: Phn t phuc
hi va phn t khng phuc hi.
Phn t khng phuc hi la phn t t khi a vao s dung n khi xay ra s c la
loai bo nh: linh kin in tr, tu in v.v..., ta ch quan tm n s kin xay ra s c u
tin.
Phn t phuc hi la phn t khi a vao s dung n khi xay ra s c c em i
s cha phuc hi, vi gia thit la sau khi sa cha phn t trang thai nh mi. Trong
qua trnh vn hanh, phn t ch nhn mt trong hai trang thai: Trang thai lam vic an toan
hoc trang thai sa cha nh ky hoc sa cha s c.

4.3 NHUNG KHAI NIM CO BAN
4.3.1 PHN TU KHNG PHUC HI
1. Thoi gian vn hanh an toan .
Gia thit thi im t = 0 phn t bt u lam vic va n thi im t = b s
c. Khoang thi gian c goi la thi gian vn hanh an toan cua phn t. V s c
khng xay ra tt nh nn la mt ai lng ngu nhin co cac gia tr trong khoang
0
Gia thit trong khoang thi gian khao sat t phn t xay ra s c vi xac xut Q(t).
Khi o co th vit:
52
Q(t) = P { < t } (4-2)
V la ai lng ngu nhin lin tuc nn Q(t)
con goi la ham phn phi hoc ham tch phn xac sut
va tn tai ham mt xac sut q(t), biu din trn
hnh 4-1 va c goi la mt phn phi cua thi
gian trung bnh vn hanh an toan T, xac nh theo
biu thc
trong o thoa man
Ham mt phn phi cua la :

0
) (
1
lim ) (

+ <
=
t
t t t P
t
t q
(4-4)
q(t).t la xac sut thi gian lam vic nm trong khoang ( t t+t ) vi t
u nho.

2.D tin cy cua phn tu P(t)
Bn canh ham phn phi Q(t) m ta xac sut s c cua phn t, thng s dung
ham P(t) m ta tin cy cua phn t theo nh ngha:
P(t) = 1 - Q(t) = P { t} (4-5)
Nh vy P(t) la xac sut phn t vn hanh an toan trong khoang thi gian t v
y co t. T biu thc (4-3) va (4-5) co th vit:
dQ(t)
Hnh 4-1
q(t)
t
3) - (4
) (
) (
dt
t dQ
t q =
1 ). (
0
=
dt t q
7) - (4 ). ( ) (
6) - (4 ). ( ) (
0
=
=
t
t
dt t q t P
dt t q t Q
Q(t)
P(t
0
)
Q(t
0
)
t
t
0

Hnh 4-2
P(t)
t
Hnh 4-3
1 1
o o
53
T o thy rng Q() = 1 va P () = 0, iu o cung thy trn cac th xac nh
Q(t) va P(t) trn hnh 4-2 va hnh 4-3.

3. Cuong d hong hoc (t)
Cng hong hoc la mt trong nhng khai nim quan trong khi nghin cu
tin cy. Mt cach n gian co th hiu (t), nu cho trong dang hng s, la gia tr trung
bnh s ln s c xay ra trong mt n v thi gian. Nhng (t) la mt ham theo thi gian,
sau y khao sat chi tit v (t).
Vi t u nho th (t).t chnh la xac sut phn t a phuc vu n thi im t
se hong hoc trong khoang thi gian t tip theo. Hay noi khac i o la s ln hong hoc
trong mt dn v thi gian trong khoang thi gian t

( )
lim
( / )
t
t
t
P t t t t
=
< < + >

0
1
(4-8)
P(t < < t+t / > t) la xac sut co iu kin, la xac sut phn t h hong
trong khoang thi gian t t n (t+t) (s kin A) nu phn t o a lam vic tt n thi
im t ( s kin B).
Theo ly thuyt xac sut, xac sut cua giao gia 2 s kin A va B la:

hay la: P A B
P A B
P B
( / )
( )
( )
=

Nu BA nh trng hp ang xet khi (t 0)

) ( ) ( A P B A P =

) (
) (
) / (
t P
t t t P
t t t t P
>
+ < <
= > + < <
(4-9)
T (4-8) va (4-9) suy ra :

)) (
) (
.
1
lim ) (
0
t P
t t t P
t
t
t
>
+ < <

) (
1
). ( .
1
lim ) (
0
t P
t t t P
t
t
t
>
+ < <
=

) ( 1
) (
) (
) (
) (
t Q
t q
t P
t q
t
= = (4-10)

) / ( ). ( ) / ( ). ( ) ( B A P B P A B P A P B A P = =
54
Cng thc (4-10) cho ta quan h gia 4 ai lng: cng hong hoc, ham mt
, ham phn b va tin cy.
T (4-3) va (4-5) ta suy ra :
) ( ). ( ) (
) (
t P t t q
dt
t dP
= =
dt t
t P
t dP
). (
) (
) (
=
1) = P(0) ( do ) ( ln ) 0 ( ln ) ( ln ) ( ln ). (
) (
) (
0
0 0
t P P t P t P dt t
t P
t dP t
t t
= = = =

=

t
dt t
e t P
0
). (
) (

(4-11)

Cng thc (4-11) cho phep tnh c tin cy cua phn t khng phuc h khi
a bit cng hong hoc (t), ma cng hong hoc (t) nay xac nh c nh
phng phap thng k qua trnh hong hoc cua phn t trong qua kh.
i vi H thng in thng s dung iu kin:
(t) = = hng s ( thc t nh BQK ) (4-12)
Do o:
t
e t P

= ) ( ;
t
e t Q

=1 ) ( ;
t
e t q

= ) ( (4-13)
Biu din trn hnh ve hnh 4-4
Theo nhiu s liu thng k quan h cua cng hong hoc (t) theo th gian
thng co dang nh hnh 4-5.
ng cong cng hong hoc (t) c chia ra lam 3 min:

a. Min I: M ta thi ky chay th . Nhng hong hoc giai oan nay thng do
lp rap, vn chuyn. Tuy gia tr giai oan nay cao nhng thi gain keo dai t va (t)
giam dn va nh ch tao, nghim thu co cht lng nn gia tr cng hong hoc (t)
giai oan nay co th giam nhiu .
P(t)
Q(t)
P(t)
Q(t)
1
t
t o o
(t)
Hnh 4-4 Hnh 4-5
(I)
(II)
(III)
55
b. Min II : M ta giai oan s dung bnh thng, cung la giai oan chu yu cua
tui tho cac phn t. giai oan nay, cac s c thng xay ra ngu nhin, t ngt do
nhiu nguyn nhn khac nhau, v vy thng gia thit cng hong hoc (t) bng hng
s.
c. Min III: M ta giai oan gia ci cua phn t theo thi gian, cng hong
hoc (t) tng dn ( tt yu la xay ra s c khi t tin n v cung ).
i vi cac phn t phuc hi nh HT, do hin tng gia hoa nn cng
hong hoc (t) lun lun la ham tng nn phai ap dung cac bin phap bao quan nh ky
(BQK) phuc hi tin cy cua phn t. Sau khi sa cha va bao quan nh ky , phn
t lai co TC xem nh tr lai luc ban u, nn cng hong hoc (t) se bin thin
quanh gia tr trung bnh
tb
.
Khi xet thi gian lam vic dai ta co th xem:
(t) =
tb
= const tnh toan tin cy.

4. Thoi gian lam vic an toan trung binh T
lv

Thi gian lam vic c nh ngha la gia tr trung bnh cua thi gian lam vic an
toan da trn s liu thng k v cua nhiu phn t cung loai, ngha la T
lv
la ky vong
toan cua ai lng ngu nhin :

= =
0
). ( . ) ( dt t q t E T
LV
(4-14)
( Theo ly thuyt xac sut vi q(t) la ham mt )
T (4-3) va (4-5) ta suy ra:

+ = = =
0 0
0
). ( ) ( . ). ( ' . ) ( dt t P t P t dt t P t E T
LV

= =
0
). ( ) ( dt t P E T
LV

( bng din tch gii han bi ng P(t) va cac truc toa , va v -t.P(t)
0
= 0).

Vi (t) = const th P(t) = e
-t
( phn b mu)

= = =
0 0 0
1
) (
1
t t t
LV
e t d e dt e T

1
=
LV
T (4-15)

Trong o []= 1/nm va [T
LV
]= nm

LV
T
t
t
e e t P
= =

) ( (4-16)

56
4.3.2 PHN TU PHUC HI
c bit trong h thng in cac phn t la phuc hi, nn ta tip tuc xet mt s
c trng tin cy cua phn t co phuc hi.
i vi nhng phn t co phuc hi trong thi gian s dung, khi b s c se c
sa cha va phn t c phuc hi. Trong mt s trng hp n gian thng gia thit
la sau khi phuc hi phn t co tin cy bng khi cha xay ra s c. Nhng kt lun
muc trn ta a xet u ung vi phn t co phuc hi khi xet hanh vi cua no trong khoang
thi gian n ln s c u tin. Nhng khi xet sau ln phuc hi u tin se phai dung
nhng m hnh khac .
Nhng ch tiu c ban cua phn t phuc hi la :

1. Thng s dong hong hoc
Th im xay ra s c va thi gian sa cha s c tng ng la nhng ai lng
ngu nhin, co th m ta trn truc thi gian nh hnh 4-6:

Hnh 4-6
T
1
, T
2
, T
3
, T
4
,.... biu th cac khoang thi gian lam vic an toan cua cac phn t
gia cac ln s c xay ra.
1
,
2
,
3
,
4
,..... la thi gian sa cha s c tong ng.
nh ngha thng s dong hong hoc :
t t t P
t
t
t
+ < <
=

(
1
lim ) (
0
) (4-17)
Trong o P(t < < t+t) la xac sut hong hoc xay ra trong khoang thi gian t
n t+t. So vi (t), y khng oi hoi iu kin phn t phai lam vic tt t u n
th im t ma ch cn n thi im t phn t ang lam vic, iu kin nay lun lun
ung v phn t la phuc hi.
(t).t la xac sut hong hoc xay ra trong khoang thi gian t n t+t vi t u
nho. Gia thit xac sut cua thi gian lam vic an toan T
lv
cua phn t co phn b mu, vi
cng s c = const khi o khoang thi gian gia 2 ln s c lin tip T1,T2... cung
co phn b mu va dong s c la ti gian. Vy thng s cua dong s c la:
(t) = = const (4-18)
V vy thng s dong hong hoc va cng hong hoc thng hiu la mt, tr cac
trng hp ring khi thi gian lam vic khng tun theo phn b mu th phai phn bit.

2. Thoi gian trung binh giua 2 ln su c T :
57
T la ky vong toan cua T
1
, T
2
, T
3
,.....,T
n
. Vi gia thit T tun theo lut phn b mu (
thc t phn b chun ) ging nh phn trn a xet ta co:

1
) ( = = T E T (4-19)

3. Thoi gian trung binh sua chua su c T
S
:
Ts la ky vong toan cua
1
,
2
,
3
,.....( thi gian sa cha s c ) :

n
E Ts
n

+ + +
= =
......
) (
1 1
(4-20)
n gian ta cung xem xac sut cua Ts cung tun theo lut phn b mu. Khi o
tng t i vi xac sut lam vic an toan P(t) = e
-t
cua phn t, ta co th biu th xac
sut trong khoang thi gian t phn t ang trang thai s c - ngha la cha sa cha
xong . Xac sut o co gia tr :
H(t) = e
-t
(4-21)
Trong o = 1/Ts la cng phuc hi s c ( la ai lng khng co y ngha vt
ly, th nguyn la [1/nm] ).
Xac sut sa cha kt thuc trong khoang thi gian t, cung chnh la phn b xac
sut cua thi gian Ts la :
G(t) = 1- e
-t
(4-22)
va ham mt phn b xac xut la:
t
e
dt
t dG
t g

= =
) (
) ( (4-23)
Thi gian phuc hi s c trung bnh la :

1
). (
0
= =
dt t G Ts (4-24)
Phn t co tnh sa cha cao khi Ts cang nho ( cang ln) ngha la ch sau mt
khoang thi gian ngn phn t a co kha nng lam vic lai.

4. H s sn sang :
H s sn sang A la phn lng thi gian lam vic trn toan b thi gian khao sat
cua phn t :

+
=
+
=
S LV
LV
T T
T
A (4-25)
A chnh la xac sut duy tr sao cho thi im khao sat bt ky, phn t trang
thai lam vic. (i khi con goi la xac xut lam vic cua phn t )

5. Ham tin cy cua phn tu R(t) :
58
La xac sut trong khoang thi gian t khao sat phn t lam vic an toan vi iu
kin thi im u t = 0 cua thi gian khao sat phn t a trang thai lam vic. Vy
R(t) la xac sut cua giao 2 s kin:
- Lam vic tt tai t = 0
- Tin cy trong khoang 0 n t
Theo gia thit v dong ti gian hai s kin nay c lp vi nhau, vy co th vit:
R(t) = A.P(t) (4-26)
i vi lut phn b mu :

t
e A t R

= . ) ( (4-27)
Trong o :

+
= A la h s sn sang .

4.4 AP DUNG
4.4.1 Vi du 1
Cng hong hoc cua mt phn t co dang
nh ttrn hnh 4-7. Hay xac nh tin cy P(t) va
thi gian lam vic an toan T.
Giai:
Trong oan 0 t 1 ham (t) co dang:
(t) = 3 - 2t
Biu thc tin cy co dang:
) 2 3 (
). (
2
0
) (
t t
dt t
e e t P
t

=

Trong oan t 1 tin cy P(t) c biu din nh sau:
+

=
=
t t
dt t dt t dt t
e e t P
1
1
0 0
). ( ). ( ). (
) (

Trong o:
t dt dt t
t
+ = +

1 ) 2 3 (
1
1
0

Vy ta co:
) 1 (
) (
t
e t P
+
=

Tom lai ta co biu thc xac nh tin cy nh sau:

(t)
t
3
2
1
o
1 2 3
Hnh 4-7
59

=
+

1 t khi e
1 t 0 khi
) (
t) (1 -
) 3 (
2
t t
e
t P

Thi gian lam vic an toan trung bnh:

505 , 0 135 , 0 370 , 0
. . ). (
1
) 1 (
1
0
) 2 3 (
0
2
= +
+ = =

+
dt e dt e dt t P T
t t t

4.4.2 Vi du 2
Mt phn phi xac sut q(t) cua thi gian trung bnh vn hanh an toan T cua
phn t co dang nh trn hnh 4-8. Hay xac nh cng hong hoc (t).

Giai:
Cng hong hoc cua phn t c xac nh theo biu thc sau:
Theo biu trn hnh 4-8 ta co:
T o ta xac nh c ham phn b Q(t):

tin cy cua phn t c tnh toan nh sau:

q(t)
0 1
1
t t

t
0
t
1

t
Hnh 4-8
(t)
0 1
1
t t
t
0
t
1

t
Hnh 4-9
1 0

) (
) (
) ( t t t voi
t P
t q
t =
0 1
1
) (
t t
t q
=
0 1
0
0 1
0 0
). ( ) (
t t
t t
t t
dt
dt t q t Q
t
t
t
t

= =

0 1
1
) ( 1 ) (
t t
t t
t Q t P
= =
60
Vy:

th biu din ham (t) nh trn hnh 4-9. Trn hnh ve cho thy khi tt0, v
mt xac sut q(t) cua thi gian lam vic an toan T giam ti khng do o (t) .

t t t P
t q
t
= =
1
1
) (
) (
) (
61
Chuong 5
CAC PHNG PHAP ANH GIA TIN CY
CUA CAC S CUNG CP IN

5.1 KHAI NIM CHUNG
anh gia tin cy cua cac s cung cp in, ta cn phai khao sat nhng ch
tiu nh lng c ban v tin cy cua cac s ni in khac nhau cua h thng cung
cp in. Cac ch tiu o la: Xac sut lam vic an toan P(t) cua h thng trong khoang
thi gian t khao sat, thi gian lam vic an toan trung bnh T gia cac ln s c, h s sn
sang A cua h, thi gian trung bnh sa cha s c, sa cha nh ky....
Tnh toan tin cy cua s cung cp in nhm xac nh gia tr trung bnh
thit hai hang nm do ngng cung cp in, phuc vu ba i toan tm phng an cung cp
in ti u hai hoa gia 2 ch tiu: Cc tiu vn u t va cc ai mc am bao cung
cp in.
Trong chng nay se trnh bay mt s phng phap tnh toan cac ch tiu tin
cy cua cac s cung cp in.

5.2 PHUONG PHAP CU TRUC NI TIP - SONG SONG CAC PHN TU
Phng phap nay xy dng mi quan h trc tip gia tin cy cua h thng vi
tin cy cua cac phn t a bit. Phng phap bao gm vic lp s tin cy va ap
dung phng phap giai tch bng ai s Boole va ly thuyt xac sut cac tp h p tnh
toan tin cy.

5.2.1 So d d tin cy
S tin cy cua h thng c xy dng trn c s phn tch anh hng cua
hong hoc phn t n hong hoc cua h thng. V vy s tin cy thng khac vi s
vt ly. V du 4 banh t xem nh ni song song trong s vt ly, nhng trong s
tin cy phai xem 4 banh o mc ni tip v bt c mt banh nao o hong cung dn n
xe hong phai ngng....
S tin cy bao gm:
- Cac nut: Nut ngun, nut tai va cac nut trung gian- la ch ni tip cua t nht 3
nhanh.
- Cac nhanh: c ve bng cac khi hnh ch nht m ta trang thai tt cua phn
t. Phn t b hong tng ng vi vic xoa khi cua phn t o ra khoi s .
Nhanh va nut tao thanh mang li ni lin nut phat va nut tai cua s . Co th co
nhiu ng ni t nut phat n nut tai, mi ng gm nhiu nhanh ni tip.
62
Theo s , trang thai tt cua h thng la trang thai trong o co t nht mt ng
n t nut phat vao nut tai. Trang thai hong cua h thng khi nut phat b tach ri vi nut
tai do hong hoc cac phn t.
i vi HT s tin cy co th trung hoc khng trung vi s ni in
(S vt ly ) tuy thuc vao tiu chun hong hoc cua h thng c la chon.
V du : Co s in gm 4 ng dy song song nh hnh ve sau:

H. c

H b

Hnh 5-1

Tiu chun hong hoc (TCHH) cua h thng t ra la: Cng sut cua li khng u
truyn tai cng sut cho phu tai.
Ta xet 3 trng hp:
a/ Kha nng tai 4 ng dy u ap ng cng sut phu tai, h thng se hong khi
ca 4 ng dy b hong va s tin cy trung vi s in (Hnh 5-1a).
b/ Kha nng tai cua t nht 3 ng dy mi u cng sut cung cp cho phu tai,
khi o h thng se hong khi co 2 ng dy tr ln b hong, ta co s tin cy khac
v s in (hnh 5-1b).
c/ Kha nng tai cua ca 4 ng dy mi ap ng c cng sut phu tai. Trong
trng hp nay h thng se hong khi ch cn hong 1 ng dy bt ky, v vy s tin
cy se la s ni tip cac phn t nh (Hnh 5-1c) khac vi s in.
S tin cy nh trn ch thanh lp c khi phn t ch co 2 trang thai: tt
hoc hong va h thng cung ch co 2 trang thai o.
Ta ln lt xet cac s sau:
* S cac phn t ni tip.
* S cac phn t song song.
* S cac phn t mc hn hp.

5.2.2 D tin cy cua so d cac phn tu ni tip
63
Xet s tin cy cua h thng gm n phn t ni tip nh hnh 5-2 (trong o: N la
nut ngun va T la nut tai)

Hnh 5-2

Gia s a bit cng hong hoc cua n phn t ln lt la
1
,
2
,
3
,...,
n
va thi
gian phuc hi trung bnh
i
cua cac phn t. V cac phn t ni tip trong s tin cy
nn h thng ch lam vic an toan khi tt ca n phn t u lam vic tt, gia thit cac phn
t c lp nhau.
Xac sut trang thai tt ( tin cy ) cua h thng la:
=
= =
n
i
H
t Pi t Pn t Pi t P t P t P
1
2 1
) ( ) ( )... ( )...... ( ). ( ) ( (5-1)
Trong o: P
i
(t) la xac sut lam vic tt (trang thai tt) cua phn t th i trong
khoang thi gian t.
Vi gia thit thi gian trung bnh lam vic an toan T cua phn t co phn b mu,
ngha la:

t
i
e t Pi
.
) (

=
t
t n
i
H
e e t Pi t P
n
i
i

=
=
= =
=
1
.
1
) ( ) (

(5-2)
Trong o :

=
=
n
i
i
1
(5-3)
c goi la cng hong hoc cua h thng.
Thi gian vn hanh an toan trung bnh cua h thng la:

=
1
H
T (5-4)
Gia thit rng thi gian phuc hi (sa cha s c) cua phn t co phn b mu,
khi o cng phuc hi
i
=1/
i
, t y co th xac nh c thi gian phuc hi trung
bnh cua h thng la:

64

= =

=
=
=
n
i
i i
n
i
i
n
i
i i
H
1
1
1

(5-5)
hoc

1 1
1
1
=
=
=
n
i i
i
n
i
i i
H
(5-6)
Trong o :
H
1
= va ta nhn thy T
H
>>
H

H s sn sang cua h thng la :

+
=
+
=
H H
H
H
T
T
A (5-7)
Ham tin cy cua toan h thng se la :

t
H
e A t R
.
. ) (

= (5-8)
Xac sut trang thai hong cua h:
) .... . ( 1 ) ( 1 ) (
2 1 n H H
P P P t P t Q = = (5-9)
Cac cng thc trn cho phep ta ng tr cac phn t ni tip thanh mt phn t
tng ng khi bin i s .
Vi du 5-1: Xet li in nh hnh ve:

Hnh 5-3

Cac s liu cho trc:
1
= 0,02 [1/nm];
2
= 0,01 [1/nm];
3
= 1 [1/nm];
4
= 0,01 [1/nm];

1
=12 [h] ;
2
= 6 [h] ;
3
= 20 [h] ;
4
= 40 [h];
Xac nh sn sang A, khng sn sang A*, tin cy R(t) thi gian khao
sat t = 1 nm ?
Giai:
Theo (5-3) ta co :
Cng hong hoc cua h thng:
1/nam 06 . 1 01 . 0 1 01 . 0 * 3 02 . 0
6
1
= + + + = =
i

h
i i
42 , 19
06 , 1
40 . 01 , 0 20 . 1 6 . 01 , 0 . 3 12 . 02 , 0 1
6
1
=
+ + +
=
=

65
1/nam 00222 , 0
8760
42 , 19
= =
Cng phuc hi cua h :
1/nam 2 , 451
00222 , 0
1 1
= = =

sn sang:
9977 , 0
06 , 1 2 , 451
2 , 451
=
+
=
+
=

A
khng sn sang :
0023 . 0 9977 , 0 1 1 = = = A A
Ham tin cy :
t t
e e A t R
06 , 1
. 9977 , 0 . ) (

= =
Tai t=1 nm :
346 , 0 . 9977 , 0 ) (
06 , 1
= =

e t R

5.2.3 D tin cy cua so d cac phn tu song song

S tin cy nh trn hnh 5-4
H thng lam vic tt khi co t nht mt
phn t tt va se hong khi tt ca cac phn t u
b hong.
thun tin trong trng hp nay ta tnh xac
sut s c Q
H
(t) cua toan h.
H s c khi toan b n phn t b s c:

Hnh 5-4

=
= =
n
i
i n H
t Q t Q t Q t Q t Q
1
2 1
) ( ) ( )........ ( ). ( ) ( (5-10)
Trong o Q
i
(t) vi i=1,n la xac sut s c cua phn t th i trong khoang thi gian
t khao sat: Q
i
(t)=1 - P
i
(t)
Gia thit:
th biu thc (5-10) co th vit lai :

=
n
i
t
H
i
e t Q
1
) 1 ( ) (

(5-11)
tin cy cua h thng :

= =
n
i
t
H H
i
e t Q t P
1
) 1 ( 1 ) ( 1 ) (

(5-12)
t
i
i
e t P

= ) (
66

Trong chng 4 ta a co nh ngha v cng hong hoc cua phn t, y tng
t i vi h thng :

=
n
i
t i
n
i
t
H
H
e
e
dt
d
t P
t P
i
1
.
1
) 1 ( 1
) 1 (
) (
) (
(5-13)
Nu n phn t hoan toan nh nhau :
1
=
2
=.......=
n
= th :
n t
n t
n
i
t i
n
i
t
e
e
dt
d
e
e
dt
d
i
) 1 ( 1
) 1 (
) 1 ( 1
) 1 (
1
.
1

n t
n t t
e
e e n
) 1 ( 1
) 1 ( . .
1

=
(5-14)
Thi gian lam vic an toan trung bnh cua h thng la :

=
1
H
T (5-15)
V
t
i
i
e t Q

= ) ( vi n 1, = i
1
i
i
= nn

=

= = =
=
n
i
t n
i
t
i H
n
i
i
i
e e t Q t Q
1
). (
1
1
) ( ) (

(5-16)

t M
H
e t Q
.
) (

= (5-17)
Trong o
=
=
n
i
i
M
1
goi la cng phuc hi cua h thng .
H s sn sang cua h :

+
=
M
M
A (5-18)
Ham tin cy cua toan h:

t
e A t R
.
. ) (

= (5-19)
Vi du 5-2: Xet 2 ng dy song song co
1
=
2
=1 [1/nm];
1
=
2
= 20 [h]. Thi gian
khao sat la 1 nm.

Giai:
Ta co :
1
=
2
= 1/
1
= 1/
2
= 1/20 = 0.05 [1/h]
Tnh theo nm :
1
=
2
= 8760/20 = 438 [1/nm]
Cng phuc hi cua h :
M =
1
+
2
= 438+438 = 876 [1/nm]
67

Cng s c cua h :
774 , 0
) 1 ( 1
) 1 ( 1 2
) 1 ( 1
) 1 ( . .
2 1
1 1 1
=

=

=

e
e xe x
e
e e n
n t
n t t

H s sn sang cua h :
0.9991
774 . 0 876
876
=
+
=
+
=
M
M
A

tin cy cua h la :
4607 , 0 . 9991 , 0 . ) (
774 , 0 .
= = =

e e A t R
t

tnh toan cac ch tiu tin cy cua s hn hp ta xet v du sau:
Vi du 5-3:
Mt h dung in c cung cp t 2 ngun A va B theo s ni dy nh hnh
ve 5-5.

Hnh 5-5 i (1/n) i(h)

Ngun A
Ngun B
MBA 110/10
MBA 35/10
.dy 10Km
.dy 5 Km
0,15
0.20
0.05
0.04
0.12
0.15
100
100
90
80
10
10

Cac thng s cua cac phn t theo thng k cho c bang ( y xem TD
tuyt i tin cy cac may ct, dao cach ly cng s c rt nho gia thit bo qua ). Hay
xac nh nhng ch tiu tin cy cua s cung cp in vi thi gian khao sat la 1
nm.
T s ni in ta lp s tin cy cua h nh sau:

68
Hnh 5-6

Giai:
1. Xac nh tin cy P(t) cua h :
i vi mach a (ng dy 110KV)
P
a
(t) = P
1a
(t).P
2a
(t).P
3a
(t) = e
-a.t

vi
a
=
1a
+
2a
+
3a
= 0.15 + 0.05 + 0.12 = 0.32 1/nm
Xet khoang thi gian t = 1 nm ta co :
P
a
(t=1) = e
-0.32
= 0,725
i vi mach b tng t ta co :
P
b
(t=1) = e
-0.39
= 0,677

b
=
1b
+
2b
+
3b
= 0.20 + 0.04 + 0.15 = 0.39
Xac sut s c cua mach a vi t = 1nm :
Q
a
=1-P
a
= 1- 0.725 = 0.275
Xac sut s c cua mach b vi t = 1nm:
Q
b
=1-P
b
=1-0.677 = 0.323
tin cy cua h thi im t = 1 nm:
P = 1 - Q
a
Q
b
= 0,991
2. Xac nh thi gian lam vic an toan trung bnh T cua h: Trc ht cn xac
nh cng dong s c cua toan h theo biu thc (5-13) .

[ ]
) 1 )( 1 ( 1
. ). 1 ( . ). 1 (
) 1 )( 1 ( 1
) 1 )( 1 (
) 1 ( 1
) 1 (
) (
) (
1
.
1
t t
b
t t
a
t t
t t
t t
n
i
t i
n
i
t
H
H
b a
b a a b
b a
b a
i
e e
e e e e
e e
e e
dt
d
e
e
dt
d
t P
t P

+
=

=

Tai t = 1 nm, thay cac gia tr
a
,
b
vao ta co :

[1/nam] 16 . 0
) 1 )( 1 ( 1
39 . 0 . ). 1 ( 32 . 0 . ). 1 (
39 . 0 32 . 0
39 . 0 32 . 0 32 . 0 39 , 0
=

+
=

e e
e e e e

Thi gian lam vic an toan trung bnh la :
[nm] 2 . 6
16 . 0
1 1
= =
= T
3. Xac nh thi gian sa cha s c trung bnh cua h :
i vi mach a :
69

=
3
1
.
1
sia ia
a
sa
T T
vi T
s1a
=100 h ;
T
s2a
= 90 h ;
T
s3a
= 10 h ;
h x x x T
sa
7 . 64 ) 10 12 . 0 90 05 . 0 100 15 . 0 (
32 . 0
1
= + + =
Tng t i vi mach b :

=
3
1
.
1
sib ib
b
sb
T T
vi T
s1b
=100 h ;
T
s2b
= 80 h ;
T
s3b
= 10 h ;
h x x x T
sb
3 . 63 ) 10 15 . 0 80 04 . 0 100 20 . 0 (
39 . 0
1
= + + =
Cng sa cha cua tng mach :
01546 . 0
7 . 64
1 1
= = =
sa
a
T

0158 . 0
3 . 63
1 1
= = =
sb
b
T

Cng sa cha cua ca h :
03125 . 0 = + = =
=
b a
b
a i
i M
Thi gian sa cha s c trung bnh cua h :
[h] 32
03125 . 0
1 1
= = =
M
Ts
V T>>Ts nn h s sn sang cua h A 1.

5.3 QUA TRINH NGU NHIN MARKOV
5.3.1. Mo du
H thng c din ta bi cac trang thai hoat ng va kha nng chuyn gia cac
trang thai o. Trang thai h thng c xac nh bi t hp cac trang thai cua cac phn t.
Mi t hp trang thai cua phn t cho mt trang thai cua h thng. Phn t co th co
nhiu trang thai khac nhau nh trang thai tt (TTT), trang tha hong (TTH), trang thai bao
quan nh ky (TTBQK).....Do o mi s thay i trang thai cua phn t u lam cho h
thng chuyn sang mt trang thai mi.
Tt ca cac trang thai co th co cua h thng tao thanh khng gian trang thai
(KGTT). H thng lun lun mt trong nhng trang thai nay nn tng cac xac sut
trang thai (XSTT) bng 1.
70
Mt h thng vt ly nao o ma trang tha cua no bin i theo thi gian mt cach
ngu nhin, ta goi h o din ra mt qua trnh ngu nhin.
Qua trnh Markov la m hnh toan hoc din ta qua trnh ngu nhin trong o phn
t hoc h thng lin tip chuyn t trang thai nay sang trang thai khac va thoa man iu
kin : Nu h thng ang mt trang thai nao o th s chuyn trang thai tip theo xay
ra tai cac thi im ngu nhin va ch phu thuc trang thai ng thi ch khng phu
thuc vao qua kh cua qua trnh.
Nu h thng co n trang thai thi im t h thng ang trang thai i th n v
thi gian tip theo h thng co th lai trang thai i (i=1..n) vi xac sut p
ii
hay co th
chuyn sang trang thai j vi xac sut p
ij
(j =1..n va i khac j).
Cac trang tha cua h thng co th la:
- Trang thai hp thu: La trang thai nu h thng ri vao trang thai nay th khng
th ra khoi c.
- Trang thai trung gian: La trang thai ma h thng co th ri vao trang thai nay,
sau o h thng se chuyn sang trang tha khac.
Qua trnh Markov la ng nht nu thi gian h thng trang thai bt ky tun
theo lut phn b mu vi xac sut chuyn p
ij
khng phu thuc thi gian goi la cng
chuyn trang tha va c nh ngha:
Vi X(t+t) va X(t) la trang tha cua h thng thi im (t+t) va t.
Vi t u nho th ta co gn ung : p
ij
(t) p
ij
. t
Qua trnh Markov khng ng nht nu p
ij
la ham cua thi gian.
Qua trnh Markov c phn ra:
a. Ri rac trong khng gian va lin tuc trong thi gian.
b. Ri rac trong khng gian va ri rac trong thi gian (Xch Markov)
c. Lin tuc trong khng gian va thi gian.
i vi HT s chuyn trang thai xay ra khi xay ra hong hoc hay phuc hi cac
phn t. Vi gia thit thi gian lam vic va thi gian phuc hi cac phn t co phn b
mu, th thi gian h thng cac trang thai cung tun theo phn b mu va cng
chuyn trang thai bng hng s va khng phu thuc vao thi gian, va ta s dung qua trnh
Markov ng nht. Vi HT ch ap dung 2 qua trnh a va b.

5.3.2. Qua trinh Markov voi trang thai va thoi gian roi rac (Xich Markov)
Gia thit h thng S co cac trang thai S
1
,S
2
,...,Sn va s chuyn trang thai cua h
ch xay ra tai nhng thi im nht nh t
0
,t
1
,....t
n
goi la bc cua qua trnh.
K hiu S
i
(k) la s kin h ang trang thai i tai bc k (hoc sau k bc k t
trang thai ban u ). Gia s tai mi bc h ch co th mt trong n trang thai va S
1
(k),

) (
lim ]) ) ( / ) ( [ (
1
lim
0 0
t
t Pij
i t X j t t X P
t
p
t t
ij
= = = +
=

71
S
2
(k),....,Sn(k) vi k=0.1,2,...... tao thanh tp u trong khng gian trang thai, va v cac s
kin khng giao nhau nn tng xac sut cua cac s kin bng 1 ( tng XS cua tp u ).
M ta qua trnh chuyn trang thai va xac sut chuyn trang thai t i sang j la P
ij
,
xac sut lai trang thai i la p
ii
bng s trang thai ( graph trang thai ) nh hnh 5-7.
Bai toan t ra la: Bit trang thai
ban u cua h la S
i
va xac sut lai trang
thai i tai bc k la p
ii
(k) va xac sut chuyn
trang thai p
ij
(k). Cn xac nh xac sut
tai cac bc k=1,2,... h cac trang thai
S
1
, S
2
,...., S
n
.
Gia thit xac sut chuyn trang thai
p
ii
(k), p
ij
(k) la hng s cac bc ta co xch
Markov ng nht.
bc (k-1) h ang trang thai Si
vi xac sut la p
i
(k-1) th xac sut sau
bc k h chuyn sang trang thai S
j
la :

Hnh 5-7

hoc co th vit di dang :
+ =
n
j i
1 = i
). 1 ( ). 1 ( ) (
ij i jj j j
p k P p k P k P (5-21)

Thanh phn th nht : P
j
(k-1).P
jj
la xac sut h lai trang tha j ( j la trang thai
nu trc o h trang thai j tai bc (k-1).
Thanh phn th hai la tng cac thanh phn xac sut h chuyn sang trang thai j
nu trc o ( bc (k-1) ) h ang trang thai i khac j.
Vit di dang ma trn :
P(k)=P(k-1).P (5-22)

Trong o :
P(k) = [P
1
(k),P
2
(k)....,P
n
(k)] la ma trn hang 1xn, vi cac phn t la xac sut trang
thai cua h bc k.
P(k-1) = [P
1
(k-1),P
2
(k-1)....,P
n
(k-1)] la ma trn hang 1xn, vi cac phn t la xac
sut trang thai cua h bc (k-1).
) 20 5 ( ). 1 ( ... ). 1 ( ). 1 ( ). 1 ( ) (
2 2 1 1
+ + + + =
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 1 43 42 1
j i
nj n j j jj j j
p k P p k P p k P p k P k P
72
P la ma trn vung nxn; goi la ma trn chuyn trang thai vi cac phn t la xac
sut chuyn trang thai cua h, v gia thit la qua trnh Markov ng nht nn cac phn t
cua P u la hng s cac bc:

nn n n
n
n
p p p
p p p
p p p
P
....
... ... ... ....
....
....
2 1
2 22 21
1 12 11
= (5-23)

V mi bc h ch co th lai trang thai cu hoc chuyn sang mt trong (n-1)
trang thai con lai nn tng cac xac sut chuyn trang thai trong tng hang cua ma trn P
bng 1.
Gia s ban u bit chc chn h ang trang thai j v xac sut P
j
(0)=1; P
i
j
(0)=0
vi i=1n .
Ta co : Bc 1 P(1) = P(0).P
Bc 2 P(2) = P(1).P = P(0).P
2

Tng t n sau bc k bt ky xac sut trang thai cua h la :
P(k) = P(0).P
k
(5-24)

Biu thc (5-24) cho ta xac nh c xac xut cac trang tha cua h bc thi
gian k , khi bit vect xac xut trang thai ban u P(0) va ma trn chuyn trang thai P.
trang thai dng ( k ) xac sut trang thai se khng thay i :
P(k) = P(k-1).P = P(k).P

Khi o ta t P(k) goi la ma trn xac sut hanh vi gii han ( hoc vect bt
ng ) cua h va ta co :
.P (5-25)
vi iu kin :
=[
1
1
.............
n
]
trong o
i
i
n
=
=
1
1 (5-26)
vi
i
la

xac sut dng cua trang thai Si.
T (5-25) va (5-26) ta co th tm c xac sut trang thai dng (xac sut duy tr)
cua h.

Vi du 5-4:
Mt thit b co th co mt trong 4 trang thai sau y :
S1: trang thai lam vic ;
73
S2 : trang thai co h hong nhe ;
S3 : h hong nng ;
S4: b hong hoan toan.

Hnh 5-8
Xac sut chuyn trang thai cho trn s
hnh 5-8 (cha khao sat qua trnh sa cha phuc
hi).
Trang thai ban u cua h la S
1
vi ma
trn xac sut trang thai ban u la :
P(0) = [ 1 0 0 0 ]
Xac nh xac sut trang thai cua thit b
cac bc 1,2,3,4,5..
Ma trn chuyn trang thai :

1 0 0 0
7 . 0 3 . 0 0 0
2 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 0
1 . 0 2 . 0 4 . 0 3 . 0
= P

P(1) = P(0).P

1 0 0 0
7 . 0 3 . 0 0 0
2 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 0
1 . 0 2 . 0 4 . 0 3 . 0
0 0 0 1 ) 1 ( x P =

1 . 0 2 . 0 4 . 0 3 . 0 ) 1 ( ) 1 ( ) 1 ( ) 1 ( ) 1 (
4 3 2 1
= = P P P P P

P(2) = P(1).P

35 . 0 28 . 0 28 . 0 09 . 0 ) 2 ( ) 2 ( ) 2 ( ) 2 ( ) 2 (
4 3 2 1
= = P P P P P
Tong t ta tm c :

611 . 0 214 . 0 148 . 0 027 . 0 ) 3 ( = P
7931 . 0 1288 . 0 07 . 0 0081 . 0 ) 4 ( = P

74
Khi k ( trang thai dng ) ta co ma trn xac xut trang thai ti han (vect bt
ng) :
1 0 0 0 ) ( = = P
ngha la h tt yu b hong hoan toan.

5.3.3. Qua trinh Markov co trang thai roi rac trong thoi gian lin tuc
Trong thc t co nhiu trng hp h chuyn t trang thai nay sang trang thai
khac khng vao nhng thi im tt nh ma vao nhng thi im bt ky ngu nhin.
m ta hanh vi cua h trong trng hp nay co th dung qua trnh Markov vi
trang thai ri rac trong thi gian lin tuc goi la xich Markov lin tuc.
Gia s h co th co n trang thai S
1
,S
2
,....,S
n
. Goi p
i
(t) la xac sut thi im t
h trang thai S
i
v i=1n va i vi thi im bt ky ta co:
=
=
n
i
i
t p
1
1 ) ( (5-27)
Ta cn phai xac nh p
i
(t) vi i=1n
Gia thit thi im t h ang trang thai S
i
. Trong khoang thi gian t tip theo
h se chuyn sang trang thai S
j
vi xac sut p
ij
(t). Khi o mt xac sut chuyn trang
thai
ij
c xac nh :
t
t p
ij
t
ij
=

) (
lim
0
(5-28)
nn vi t u nho ta co :
t t p
ij ij
. ) ( (5-29)
Nu moi
ij
khng phu thuc vao thi im t th qua trnh Markov la qua trnh
ng nht.

Hnh 5-9
Gia thit h S c m ta 4 trang
thai trn graph trang thai hnh 5-9
Xac nh cac xac sut trang thai
P
i
(t) vi i=1..4.
Goi p
1
(t+t) la xac xut tai thi
im (t+t) h trang thai S
1
. S kin nay
la hp cua 2 s kin:
Hoc s kin 1: Tai thi im t h
trang thai S
1
va n (t+t) h vn trang
thai S
1
.
Hoc s kin 2 : Tai thi im t
h trang thai S
3
va n (t+t) h chuyn sang trang thai S
1
.
- S kin 1: co xac sut bng tch xac sut p
1
(t) vi xac sut co iu kin la sau t
h khng ra khoi S
1
; nn xac sut cua s kin 1 la :
75
) . 1 ).( (
12 1
t t p
Trong o :
+ ) . 1 (
12
t la xac sut h khng i n trang thai S
2
ngha la vn lai S
1
.
+ ) . (
12
t la xac sut h i n S
2
.
- S kin 2: co xac xut bng tch xac sut p
3
(t) ( tai t h ang S3 ) vi xac sut
tai thi im (t+t) h chuyn n S
1
; nn xac sut cua s kin 2 bng
t t p . ). (
31 3

- Hp 2 s kin trn, ta co xac sut tai thi im (t+t) h trang thai S
1
la :
t t p t t p t t p + = + . ). ( ) . 1 ).( ( ) (
31 3 12 1 1

Bin i va ly gii han khi t0 :

) ). ( ). ( ( lim
) ( ) (
lim
) (
31 3 12 1
0
1 1
0
1
t p t p
t
t p t t p
dt
t dp
t t
+ =
+
=

31 3 12 1
1
). ( ). (
) (
t p t p
dt
t dp
+ =

Biu thc trn la phng trnh vi phn ng vi p
1
(t). Tng t ta lp c phng
trnh vi phn ng vi p
2
(t) da trn graph trang thai :
Xac sut thi im (t+t) h trang thai S
2
k hiu la p
2
(t+t) la xac xut
hp cua 3 s kin sau :
S kin 1:Tai thi im t h S
2
, sau t vn yn S
2
; xac sut s kin la :
) . . 1 ).( (
24 23 2
t t t p

S kin 2 : Tai thi im t h S
1
, sau t chuyn sang S
2
t t p . ). (
12 1

S kin 3 : Tai thi im t h S
4
, sau t chuyn sang S
2
t t p . ). (
42 4

Do o :
t t p t t p t t t p t t p + + = + . ). ( . ). ( ) . . 1 ).( ( ) (
42 4 12 1 24 23 2 2

Bin i va ly gii han :

76
) ( ) ( ) ( ) (
) ( ) (
lim
) (
4 42 1 12 2 24 2 23
2 2
0
2
t p t p t p t p
t
t p t t p
dt
t dp
t
+ + =

+
=

Tng t, ta lp c h phng trnh Kolmogorov :

31 3 12 1
1
). ( ). (
) (
t p t p
dt
t dp
+ =
) ( ) ( ) ( ) (
) (
4 42 1 12 2 24 2 23
2
t p t p t p t p
dt
t dp
+ + = (5-30)
) ( ) ( ) (
) (
2 23 3 34 3 31
3
t p t p t p
dt
t dp
+ =
) ( ) ( ) (
) (
3 34 2 24 4 42
4
t p t p t p
dt
t dp
+ + =

hoc vit di dang ma trn :

A P P .
.
=

Trong o : P la ma trn hang gm cac phn t la ao ham dp
i
(t)/dt.
A la ma trn vung kch thc nxn , cac thanh phn la cng chuyn trang thai
ij
, thc t cach vit nh sau :
Cach thanh lp ma trn A cung ging nh cach thanh lp ma trn P trong xch
Markov ri rac, ch khac ch tng cac phn t cua 1 hang ma trn nay bng 0 ( trong
khi o xch Markov bng 1 ) va cac phn t la cng chuyn trang thai ch khng
phai la xac sut chuyn trang thai :
V du thanh lp ma trn A theo s d trang thai hnh 5-9:

42 42
34 34 31 31
24 23 24 23
12 12
0 0
) ( 0
) ( 0
0 0

+
+
= A
Khi o :

42
0
42
0
34
)
34 31
( 0
31
24 23
)
24 23
( 0
0 0
12
.
4
p
3
p
2
p
1
p
.
4
p
.
3
p
.
2
p
.
1
p

+
+
=
12

77

V h phng trnh vi phn trn ta co th giai c bng cach bin i Laplace
khi co t 3 trang thai tr xung, khi co 4 trang thai tr ln phai giai gn ung, va ta s
dung xch Markov.
ch dng cua h thng khi t th dp
i
(t)/dt 0 va p
i
(t) tr thanh hng s
goi la xac sut duy tr cua h .
Khi o P[p
1
,p
2
,...,p
n
] = [
1
,
2
,......,
n
]
Vi cac gia tr
i
la hng s va goi la vect bt ng , co c bng cach giai h
phng trnh:
P.A = 0
Vi 1
1
=
=
n
i
i
p

Mt cach gn ung co th xem t p
ij ij
. vi t la khoang thi gian khao sat va
0p
ij
1 .

5.3.4. Su dung xich Markov danh gia d tin cy cung cp din
Gia thit tai thi im t nao o h co th mt trong n trang thai va a bit ma
trn xac sut hoc mt xac sut chuyn gia cac trang thai.
a. Xet h gm nhng phn t khng phuc hi: Gia thit h gm 2 phn t song
song nh hnh 5-10 va co graph trang thai nh hnh 5-11 .

Hnh 5-10

Hnh 5-11
Cac trang thai c ky hiu nh sau:
S
0
: trang thai ca 2 ng dy lam vic tt.
S
1
: trang thai phn t 1 b s c.
S
2
: trang thai phn t 2 b s c.
S
3
: trang thai ca 2 phn t u b s c.

H phng trnh vi phn dang ma trn :
78

A P p p p p P .
.
3
.
2
.
1
.
0
.
= =

Vi ma trn A thanh lp t graph trang thai:

0 0 0 0
0 0
0 0
0 ) (
1 1
2 2
2 1 2 1

+
= A

Vit di dang khai trin , ta co h phng trnh vi phn :

+ =
=
=
+ =
) ( ) (
) ( ) (
) ( ) (
) ( ). (
2 1 1 2
3
2 1 0 2
2
1 2 0 1
1
0 2 1
0
t p t p
dt
dp
t p t p
dt
dp
t p t p
dt
dp
t p
dt
dp

(5-31)
va thoa man iu kin: p
0
(t) + p
1
(t) + p
2
(t) + p
3
(t) =1

Giai h phng trnh trn nhn c cac gia tr xac sut trang thai la ham cua thi
gian va phu thuc vao cac tham s
1
,
2
.
Gia s
1
=
2
= = const ;
Giai h phng trnh trn vi iu kin u:
p
0
(0) = 1 ;
p
1
(0) = p
2
(0) = p
3
(0) = 0

ta nhn c:

t
e t p
2
0
) (

=

t t
e e
t p t p
2
2 1
) ( ) (

= =
t t
e e
t p t p t p t p

+
= =
2 ) 2 (
1 ) ( ) ( ) ( 1 ) (
2
2 1 0 3

79
V du : Gia thit bit xac sut vn hanh an toan trong khoang thi gian t = 100 gi
cua mi phn t la p
i
= 0,9 . Xac nh tin cy cua h trong 100 gi.
Mt xac sut s c cua hai phn t bng nhau, c xac nh theo biu thc:
q= 1-p t 0,1 .100
= 0,1/100 = 0,001 [1/h]
Thay gia tr va t = 100h vao cac biu thc xac nh P
0
(t), P
1
(t), P
2
(t), P
3
(t) nhn
c:
81 , 0 ) 100 (
2 , 0 100 001 , 0 2
0
= = =

e e p
x x

09 , 0 ) 100 ( ) 100 (
2 1
= = p p
Xac sut vn hanh an toan (gia thit h thng lam vic tt khi co 1 ng dy lam
vic tt) :
99 , 0
2 1 0
= + + = p p p P
Co th nhn c kt qua trn nh trc y a tnh bng cng thc n gian :
99 , 0 1 , 0 1 1 . 1
2 2
2 1
= = = = q q q P
( Tuy nhin dang qua trnh Markov co u im hn nhiu khi co nhiu trang thai
va co tac ng ngc nhau nh sa cha phuc hi .......)

b. Tip theo khao sat tin cy cua phn t co phuc hi: Xet h co 1 phn t, gia
thit cng s c va cng phuc hi vi graph trang tha nh hnh 5-12
S
0
: la trang tha lam vic tt.
S
1
: la trang tha hong .
H phng trnh vi phn
Kolmogorov :

=
+ =
) ( . ) ( .
) (
) ( ) (
) (
1 0
1
1 0
0
t p t p
dt
t dp
t p t p
dt
t dp

(5-32)

Hnh 5-12

iu kin u : P
0
(0) = 1 ; P
1
(0) = 0 ;
va : P
0
(t) + P
1
(t) = 1 ;
Giai h phng trnh vi phn trn ta co :

t
e t p
). (
0
. ) (

+
+
+
+
=
80
T biu thc trn ta thy rng tin cy p0(t) cua phn t co phuc hi gm thanh
phn hng s va thanh phn giam dn theo thi gian.
Khi t = 0 ta co : p
0
(t) = 1
va khi t co A t p =
+
) (
0
la h s sn sang.
Trong nhiu trng hp do vic giai cac pghng trnh vi phn khi h phc tap rt
cng knh, nn thng ch quan tm n xac sut trang thai duy tr p
0
, p
1
. Khi o ch cn
giai h (5-32) trong dang ai s:
Khi t dp
0
(t)/dt = 0:
0
1 0
= + p p
1
1 0
= + p p
Suy ra :

+
=
+
=
1 0
p va p
Kt qua co th nhn c khi s dung vect bt ng [][p
0
,p
1
] khi t :

=
1
1
.
1 0 1 0
p p p p
Trong o :
= + =
2
1
1 0
1 1 p p
i

va ta co quan h :

0 1
1
0
p p
p
p
= =
ngha la nu / cang ln th xac sut s c cang cao .

* Trng hp h gm nhiu phn t :
Gia thit h co n phn t ni tip nh trn hnh 5-13 va graph trang thai nh trn
hnh 5-14, cac ga tr , cua cac phn t nh nhau.

Hnh 3-14

Hnh 3-15
anh gia tin cy cua h , ta xet hai trang thai in hnh nh trn hnh 5-14 .
So - Moi phn t u lam vic ;
S
1
- Mt phn t nao o b s c ;
V h se ngng lam vic khi hoc phn t 1 , hoc phn t 2 ... ,hoc phn t n s
c , nn mt xac xut chuyn t So n S
1
la n . S dung h phng trnh vi phn
tng t trng hp mt phn t ta nhn c:
81

P t
n
n
n
e
o
n t
( )
( )
=
+
+
+
+

(5-33)
Xac sut lam vic duy tr cua h

P
n
o
=
+

Khi khng xet n tnh phuc hi, ngha la thay = 0 biu thc (5-33) ta nhn
c xac xut trong khoang thi gian t h lam vic an toan tng t phn trc ta co:
P(t) = e
-nt
= e
-t
Vi = n la tham s dong s c cua h .
Tng t co th xet cho trng hp s song song .

5.4 DU TRU CNG SUT TI UU TRONG H THNG DIN
Xac nh cng sut d tr ti u trong HT la mt bai toan quan trong trong cng
tac thit k va vn hanh h thng in. Tinh thn chu yu cua bai toan la nhm giai quyt
mu thun: Khi a thm cng sut t vao h thng th phai tng thm vn u t va ph
tn vn hanh, nghia la chi ph tnh toan phai tng thm mt lng N, nhng h thng
in co cng sut d tr tng se co tin cy cao hn, xac sut ngng cung cp in se
giam va nh vy thit hai kinh t do thiu hut in nng gam i mt lng H. Khi
H>N th cng sut d tr u t thm vao o la hp ly.
Cng sut d tr trong HT c nh ngha :
ft dt
P P P =
Trong o : P
la tng cng sut t cua cac t may trong HT

P
ft
la tng cng sut cua phu tai thi im khao sat k ca tn tht
trong h thng.
Cng sut d tr ti u c xac nh sao cho cc tiu ham muc tiu :
Z = N+H min
Trong o: N la thanh phn vn u t va ph tn vn hanh a qui v mt nm.
H la gia tr trung bnh thit hai kinh t do ngng cung cp in trong
mt nm, c tnh bng biu thc:
H = ho.W
Trong o W la gia tr trung bnh cua in nng thiu hut hang nm, no phu thuc
vao gia tr xac sut thiu hut cng sut trong h thng.
Nhng ai lng ngu nhin anh hng n xac sut thiu hut cng sut trong h
thng gm:
1. S c cac phn t trong HT nh lo, turbin, may phat....
2. Sai lch gia phu tai thc t va phu tai thit k.
3. Sai s v d bao phu tai.
82
Sau y ta xac nh cac xac sut xut hin cac s c ngu nhin k trn. n
gian ta gia thit rng gia tr cng sut thiu hut bin i ri rac va theo tng cp, mi cp
co gia tr la b [MW].
Xac sut s c cac phn t trong h thng c biu din trong day:
,... 2 , 1 , 0 }, { + + = i P
sc
ib

Trong o } {
sc
ib
P la xac sut trong h thng thiu hut ib [MW] cng sut do s
c cac t may.
Tng t ta co th biu din xac sut tha cng sut do phu tai giam so vi gia tr
cc ai a thit k , goi la day xac sut giam phu tai .
} {
g
ib
P , vi i=0,-1,-2,.....
Trong o } {
g
ib
P la xac sut trong h thng tha ib [MW] do phu tai thc t
giam
Xac sut sai lch phu tai do d bao co th biu din trong day xac sut :
} {
ss
ib
P , vi i = 0,-1,+1,-2,+2,....
Trong o } {
ss
ib
P la xac sut trong h thng thiu ( ng vi i > 0 ) hoc tha (ng
vi i < 0 ) mt lng cng sut la ib [MW] do sai s d bao phu tai.
Mi day xac sut trn y tao thanh mt khng gian xac sut cua cac s kin c
ban do o co th vit:
1
0
=
=
n
i
sc
ib
P
1
0
=
=
n
i
g
ib
P
1
0
=
=
n
i
ss
ib
P
Hoc vit c : 1 . .
0 0 0
=

= = =
n
i
ss
ib
n
i
g
ib
n
i
sc
ib
P P P (5-34)
Nu gia thit rng cng sut thit k am bao ung yu cu, ngha la d tr bng
khng khi phu tai cc ai. Khi o xac sut thiu hut cng sut 1 cp b[MW] trong h
thng c xac nh theo biu thc :
....... ....) ( ....) (
2
+ + + + + + =

ss
b
sc
b
ss
b
sc
o
g
b
ss
o
sc
b
ss
b
sc
o
g
o
th
b
P P P P P P P P P P P
Trong o tng ai s cac ch s pha di cua mi thanh phn cua khai trin pha
bn phai bng b. Th du
ss
b
sc
o
g
b
P P P
2
trong o - b + 0 + 2b = b
thanh phn nay gm : xac sut khi xut hin phu tai thc nho hn phu tai cc ai khi thit
k mt lng b [MW] la P
g
-b
; ng thi co xut hin sai s vi phu tai d bao nho hn
phu tai thc mt lng 2b [MW] vi xac sut la P
ss
2b
; va khng xay ra s c mt t may
83
nao co xac xut la P
sc
0
. V vy lng cng sut thiu hut trong h thng luc nay la
b[MW].
Tng t co th vit biu thc xac nh xac sut thiu hut cng sut mb[MW]
trong h thng la:
....... ....) ( ....) (
) 1 ( ) 1 (
+ + + + + + =
+
ss
mb
sc
b
ss
b m
sc
o
g
b
ss
b m
sc
b
ss
mb
sc
o
g
o
th
mb
P P P P P P P P P P P
Tng quat co th vit xac sut thiu hut mb [MW] cng sut trong h thng :
ss
kb
sc
jb
th
mb
P P P

=
n
0 = j
n
-n = k
g
ib
0
-n = i
P (5-35)
vi iu kin : i + j + k = m
Trong trng hp h thng co gia tr d tr la rb [MW] khi phu tai cc ai biu thc xac
nh P
th
mb
vn xac nh theo ( 30 ) nhng by gi phai co iu kin ;
i + j + k = ( m + r )
Sau y se trnh bay phng phap xac nh cac day xac sut P
g
ib
, P
ss
ib
, P
sc
ib
.

Ga tr cua xac sut s c cua i t may trong h thng co n t may :
P
sc
ib
phu thuc vao s lng t may va s liu thng k v xac sut trang thai s
c q cua tng t may.
Gia thit cng sut va xac sut s c q cua n t may trong h thng la nh nhau,
khi o co th dung lut phn b nh thc xac nh xac sut xay ra s c ung k t may
trong toan b n t may P
sc
kb
, vi cng sut cua mi t may la nh nhau va bng b[MW] :

) (
) 1 (
k n k k
n
sc
kb
q q C P

= (5-36)
Trong o :
)! ( !
!
k n k
n
C
k
n
=

T biu thc (5-36) suy ra rng gia tr P
sc
kb
chnh la thanh phn th k cua khai trin nh
thc:
1 .....
)! ( !
!
) (
1
= + +
+ + = +
n k k n n n n
q q p
k n k
n
q np p q p
Trong o p =1-q la xac sut lam vic tt cua mi t may.
Trong trng hp s t may n ln va xac sut s c cua mi t may q nho, ta co
th dung phn phi Poisson xac nh P
sc
kb
:

!
) (
k
e nq
P
nq k
sc
kb
=
Trng hp cac t may co cng sut va xac sut s c q khac nhau n gian ta
co th dung cng sut trung bnh Ptb cua t may va xac sut s c trung bnh q
tb
cua t
may :
84

=
=
n
i
i tb
P
n
P
1
1

=
=
=
n
i
n
i
tb
Pi
qiPi
q
1
1

Trong o Pi, qi la cng sut va xac sut s c cua t may th i trong h thng.
Nu trong h thng co cac t may co cng sut va xac sut rt khac nhau th ta
chia thanh nhiu nhom, mi nhom gm nhng t may co cng sut va xac sut s c
ging nhau. Khi o xac xut s c ng thi cac t may co th xac nh theo biu thc
sau , vi gia thit h co k nhom may :

( p
i
+ q
i
)
ni
= 1
Trong o n
i
- s t may thuc nhom i , thoa man :
n
i
= n

85
Chuong 6
CHT LNG IN NNG VA VN IU CHNH
TN S, IN AP TRONG H THNG IN

6.1. CAC YU CU DI VOI SAN XUT DIN NNG
H thng in lc bao gm cac nha may in, ng dy tai in, tram bin ap va
cac h tiu thu in kt hp vi nhau thanh mt h thng chung san xut, truyn tai va
phn phi in nng n cac h tiu thu mt cah lin tuc va kinh t nht (h thng nng
lng, mang in). Khac hn vi nhng nganh cng nghip khac, san xut in nng co
nhng c im chu yu sau:
1. c im quan trong nht la vic san xut, truyn tai, phn phi va s dung
in nng bao gi cung tin hanh cung mt luc. Ngha la moi thi im phai co s cn
bng chnh xac gia in nng san xut ra va in nng tiu thu cng vi tn tht trn li
truyn tai va phn phi. Nu s cn bng trn khng am bao th cac ch tiu cht lng
in nng chu yu la tn s va in ap trong h thng se lch ra khoi pham vi cho phep.
2. c im th hai la cac qua trnh qua trong h thng in din ra rt nhanh
cho nn phai s dung cac ky thut t ng iu khin cac qua trnh nay ch khng th
thao tac bng tay.
3. c im th ba la in nng co lin quan cht che vi tt ca cacnganh kinh t
quc dn va moi hoat ng cua con ngi. Cho nn oi hoi tin cy cung cp in phai
rt cao v moi s c trong h thng dn n thiu hut cng sut se anh hng n nn
kinh t quc dn.
Do nhng c im trn nn i vi san xut in nng co nhng yu cu c ban
sau:
1. Phai am bao tin cy cung cp in lin tuc cho cac h tiu thu theo tnh
cht tng loai h trn tiu thu cu th (loai I, loai II, loai III).
2. am bao cht lng in nng cu th la in ap tai cac nut trong li va tn s
chung cua h thng khng c lch ra khoi pham vi cho phep.
3. am bao gia thanh san xut in nng re nht (phu thuc vao khu thit k va
vn hanh h thng in).
thc hin tt cac yu cu trn ngi ta phai xy dng nhng h thng in ln
lin kt nhiu nha may va khu vc khac nhau, ngay nay ngi ta a xy dng c nhng
h thng in lin quc gia. Cac u im chnh cua vic xy dng nhng h thng in
ln la:
1. Nng cao tin cy cung cp in lin tuc cho phu tai.
2. S dung hp ly cac ngun nng lng, thc hin c vic phn phi ti u
cng sut gia cac nha may in dn n giam gia thanh in nng.
86
3. Giam tng cng sut d tr cua h thng va co kha nng tng cng sut n v
cac t may, cho phep xy dng cac nha may in cng sut ln nng cao c hiu qua
kinh t trong san xut in nng.
4. Giam tr s cc ai cua th phu tai tng cua h thng in.
Khi xy dng cac h thng in ln th vic kim tra iu khin cac qua trnh
trong h thng rt phc tap. thc hin vic nay phai xy dng cac trung tm iu
vi cac thit b thng tin hin ai. Trung tm iu co nhng nhim vu chu yu sau:
1. am bao vic san xut va tiu thu in nng vi san lng cao nht.
2. am bao cung cp in lin tuc cho phu tai, mun vy phai lun lun duy tr
mt lng cng sut d tr nht nh trong h thng.
3. am bao cht lng in nng trong h thng khng lch ra khoi cac gia tr cho
phep.
4. am bao tnh kinh t ln nht trong pham vi toan h thng, ngha la am bao
chi ph san xut in nng be nht.

6.2. DC TINH TINH CUA PHU TAI
c tnh tnh cua phu tai mt nut nao o la quan h gia cng sut tac dung va
cng sut phan khang cua phu tai i vi in ap tai nut o khi tn s cho bit hoc i
vi tn s khi in ap cho bit. S d goi la c tnh tnh v phu tai c xet ch lam
vic xac lp.
Nu phu tai ch qua con phai xet n tc bin i cua cac thng s va
ta se co nhng ng c tnh ng cua phu tai.
c tnh ng cua phu tai la quan h gia cng sut phu tai i vi tn s, in ap
va cac ao ham cua chung.
Khi ch cua H thng in thay i th trong phu tai cung xay ra cac qua trnh
qua . Cac qua trnh nay thng khng c xet ring cho tng thit b dung in ring
bit ma c xet chung cho tng nhom ln phu tai cung c cung cp in t mt nut
phu tai nao o. Mi nut phu tai nh vy la mt phu tai tng hp bao gm nhiu loai phu
tai kha c nhau nh: ng c khng ng b, ng c ng b, may bu ng b, tu in,
anh sang, lo in....Cac thanh phn trung bnh cua cac loai thit b dung in trong mt
nut phu tai tng hp 110KV tnh theo phn trm cng sut nh trong bang 6-1.

Bang 6-1
Tn phu tai Thanh phn (%)
- ng c khng ng b
- ng c ng b
- Chiu sang
- Chnh lu, lo in va t nong
- Tn tht trong mang in
48
10
25
10
7
87
Vic xy dng c tnh phu tai tng hp rt kho khn, cho nn ngi ta ch xy
dng cac ng c tnh gn ung da vao cac c tnh cua tng loai phu tai va t l tham
gia cua no vao th phu tai tng. Trc khi tm cac ng c tnh tnh cua nut phu tai
tng hp, ta khao sat cac ng c tnh tnh cua cac phu tai thanh phn.
a. Phu tai thp sang:
Cng sut tac dung tiu thu bi cac en nung nong do in tr tac dung cua en
thay i theo nhit , do o co quan h vi in ap theo biu thc sau:
P = KU
1,6
(6-1)
i vi en ng cng sut phu thuc rt t vao in ap.
b. Dng co din khng dng b:
S thay th cua ng c khng ng b
nh trn hnh 6-1, t s thay th vit c cac
biu thc cho cng sut tac dung va phan khang:
s la h s trt cua ng c, trong o
0
la tc ng b, la tc thc cua
ng c. Khi momen cua may cng tac la hng s th cng sut tac dung cua ng c
khng ng b la hng s.
c. Dng co din dng b va may bu dng b
* ng c ng b
c tnh cng sut tac dung va phan khang cua ng c ng b co dang:

* May bu ng b
May bu ng b khng tiu thu cng sut tac dung cho nn goc = 0 do o c
tnh cng sut phan khang co dang:
Xr
X
I
I
2

R
2
/s
Hnh 6-1
U
) 2 6 (
) / (
2
2
2
2
2
2 2
2

+
= =
s
R
s R X
U
s
R
I P
r
) 3 6 (
2
2
2
+ = + =
s r
Q Q X I
X
U
Q

0
0

= s
) 4 6 (
cos
sin
2

=
=
d
q
d
d
q
X
UE
X
U
Q
X
UE
P
) 5 6 (
2
=
d
q
d
X
UE
X
U
Q
88
d. Tu din tnh
Tu in tnh la thit b bu phat cng sut phan khang. c tnh cng sut phan
khang co dang:
e. Duong dc tinh tnh cua phu tai tng hop
Trong h thng in phu tai tng hp tai cac nut phn ln la ng c, cho nn c
tnh cua phu tai tng hp co dang gn ging c tnh cua ng c va co dang nh trn
hnh 6-2 va hnh 6-3.

Cng sut tac dung cua ng c chu yu phu thuc vao cng sut cac may b, con
khng phu thuc (ng c ng b) hoc phu thuc rt t (ng c khng ng b ) vao
in ap. Cho nn c tnh tnh cua phu tai tng P
pt
(U) (hnh 6-2) co dc tng i be
v thanh phn chu yu cua no la ng c.
Vi mt tr s nht nh nao o cua in ap, cho tn s f tng ln, ng c se quay
nhanh hn ( = 2 f) nhng v momen quay cua ng c gia thit khng i nn ta co:
P
pt
= M (6-7)
Ngha la khi f tng dn n tng va cng sut phu tai P
pt
cung tng nn ta co chiu mui
tn ch f tng theo hng P
pt
tng (nh hnh 6-2).
Cng sut phan khang cua phu tai xac nh chu yu bi cng sut t hoa cua ng
c khng ng b va may bin ap. Chung ta bit cng sut t hoa bng

X
U
Q
2
= (6-8)
Do o luc in ap giam th cng sut t hoa giam tng i nhanh ngha la ng
c tnh tnh Q
pt
(U) co dc ln hn so vi ng c tnh tnh P
pt
(U).
Vi mt tr s nht nh cua in ap, cho tn s f tng ln dong in t hoa cua
ng c khng ng b va may bin ap se giam xung v in khang t hoa X
se tng
ln khi tn s tng. Cng sut t hoa chim phn ln trong tng cng sut cua phu tai nn
) 6 6 (
1
;
2
= =
C
X
X
U
Q
C
C

P
ft
U
f
0
+
-
Q
ft
U
f
0
+
-
Hnh 6-2 Hnh 6-3
89
khi tn s f tng Q
pt
se giam, trn hnh 6-3 chiu mui tn ch f tng hng theo chiu giam
Q
pt
.

6.3. QUAN H GIUA TN S VA DIN AP DI VOI CN BNG CNG SUT
6.3.1 Xet tai mt nut
Tr s cng sut tac dung va phan khang i ti mt nut nao o khng nhng phu
thuc bin U va goc pha cua in ap nut o ma con phu thuc vao bin va pha
cua in ap cac nut ln cn va in khang cua ng dy cac oan nay.
Theo iu kin cn bng cng sut tac dung va phan khang: Tng cac dong cng
sut tac dung va phan khang i ti nut (P
F
, Q
F
) phai bng tng cng sut tac dung va phan
khang cua phu tai tai nut o (P
pt
va Q
pt
). Vi mt tn s xac nh nao o ta co:

( ) ( )
( ) ( )
=
=
, Q
, P

pt
pt
U Q U
U P U
F
F
(6-9)
y la h 2 phng trnh hai n s U va se giai tm c U
pt
tai nut khao sat. Do
kho xac nh P
pt
(U) va Q
pt
(U), nn ta s dung phng phap giai tch th giai tm ga
tr U
pt
cua nut khao sat.
Trn hnh 6-4 ve ng c tnh P
pt
=
1
(U) ng vi mt tr s f xac nh cho
trc va ho ng c tnh P
F
= (U, ) ng vi tn s f nh a cho nhng vi cac tr s
khac nhau.
Da vao iu kin cn bng cng sut tac dung P
F
= P
pt
, t cac giao im cua c
tnh P
pt
=
1
(U) va ho ng P
F
=
1
(U,) co th xac nh c quan h = (U).
Trn hnh 6-5 ve c tnh Q
pt
=
2
(U) va ho ng c tnh Q
F
=
2
(U,) ng vi
cung mt tr s f nhng khac nhau. Dung quan h = (U) a tm c trn xac
nh cac im nm trn c tnh Q
F
= (U) t cac ng cua ho ng Q
F
=
2
(U,), ni
tt ca cac im nay lai ta c c tnh Q
F
= (U) ng vi cn bng cng sut tac dung.
Da vao iu kin cn bng cng sut phan khang ta co Q
pt
= Q
F
,cho nn giao
im cua hai ng Q
pt
(U) va Q
F
(U) se cho gia tr in ap thc t U
pt
(U
4
) tai nut khao sat.
Trnh t giai bng giai tch th co th tom tt nh sau :
P
U
Q
U
Hnh 6-4 Hnh 6-5
U
1
U
2
U
3
U
4
U
5

1

U
1 U
2
U
3
U
4
U
5
5

4
2
P
ft
(U)
P
F
(U,)
Q
F
(U,)
Q
F
(U)
Q
ft
(U)
90
Trn hnh 6-4 xac nh c quan h (U), dung quan h nay xac nh Q
F
(U) trn
hnh 6-5, giao im cua hai ng Q
pt
(U) va Q
F
(U) cho in ap tai nut khao sat.

6.3.2 Xet trong pham vi toan h thng
Ta xet hai trng hp in hnh gy nn bin i tn s va in ap trong h thng.
1. Trng hp th nht
Nu thay i lng hi vao turbin cua mt t may phat nao o th goc lch cua
rto may phat o se thay i. Trong toan b h thng se xay ra bin i tn s, ca pha va
bin cua in ap tt ca cac nut. Tt ca nhng bin i nay se din ra cho n luc xac
lp cn bng mi trong h thng. Qua trnh din ra rt phc tap, v du: giam lng hi
nc vao turbin cua t may 1, tc cua t may o se quay chm lai, goc lch cua rto se
giam xung do o cng sut tac dung do no phat ra P = (EUsin)/X se giam va yu cu
cng sut tac dung cua cac may phat khac phai tng ln am bao cn bng cng sut
trong h thng. Trn truc cua cac may phat nay se xut hin mt cn bng va bt u b
ham. Goc lch rto cua chung se giam va cng sut tac dung do no phat ra lai giam theo
do o may 1 lai b ham. V phai nhn thm cng sut ma cac may phat kia phat ra khng
u. Kt qua tt ca cac may phat u b ham do o tn s chung cua h thng b gam
xung. Luc tn s giam cng sut tac dung cua phu tai cac nut cung giam theo cac c
tnh tnh v tn s, con cng sut tac dung cua cac may phat in th tng ln do tac dung
cua cac b t ng iu chnh tc . Ca hai yu t nay se dn n cn bng truc mi
may phat in. Tn s se khng giam na va se n nh mt tn s mi.
Mc khac khi tn s giam se lam bin i sc in ng cua tt ca cac may phat
in va in khang cua tt ca cac nhanh va do o se lam bin i in ap tt ca cac nut
trong h thng. in ap bin di se dn n bin i cng sut tac dung va phan khang
cn cung cp cho cac phu tai theo c tnh tnh v in ap. Tom lai qua trnh din ra rt
phc tap.
2. Trng hp th hai
Gia s dong in kch t mt t may ln nao o cua h thng giam xung, cng
sut phan khang do t may phat o phat ra giam xung va lam cho in ap cac nut ln
cn giam xung. S d in ap phai giam xung la am bao cn bng cng sut phan
khang v ta bit theo c tnh tnh cua phu tai v in ap, luc in ap giam th cng sut
cung cp cho phu tai cung giam. in ap giam lai lam cho phu tai tac dung cac nut
giam xung theo c tnh tnh cua phu tai v in ap. Do o se xut hin mt cn bng
cng sut tac dung trn truc cac may phat in dn n goc lch rto va tc quay cua
cac may phat in tng ln, cho n luc co cn bng mi tao nn bi s tng phu tai tac
dung cua h thng theo c tnh tnh v tn s cua cac phu tai. Tn s tng se lam bin
i sc in ng cac may phat in va in khang cac nhanh va do o se lam bin i
in ap cac nut.
91
Hai trng hp trn la qua trnh lin quan phc tap gia cac bin i cua tn s,
in ap, cng sut tac dung va cng sut phan khang. n gian trong thc t ngi ta
thng gia thit.
a. Moi bin i v cn bng cng sut tac dung cua may phat va phu tai dn n
s bin i v tn s.
b. Moi bin i v cn bng cng sut phan khang ch dn n bin i in ap.
Tom lai cac iu kin cn thit am bao gia tr cua tn s va in ap trong h
thng la :
1. Cng sut tac dung cua cac may phat in phai u cung cp toan b cho phu
tai tac dung cua h thng va tn tht cng sut tac dung trong mang trong iu kin lam
vic nh mc cua in ap va tn s.
2. Cng sut phan khang cua cac may phat in va may bu ng b phai u
cung cp cho toan b phu tai phan khang cua h thng va tn tht cng sut phan khang
trong mang trong iu kin lam vic nh mc cua in ap va tn s.
3. Phn b cng sut phan khang cua cac may phat in va may bu ng b trong
h thng phai am bao sao cho lng cng sut phan khang truyn trn ac ng dy lin
lac gia cac khu vc la be nht nhm giam tn tht in ap va in nng trong mang.

6.4. DIU CHINH TN S TRONG H THNG DIN
6.4.1 Nguyn ly diu chnh
iu chnh tn s trong cac h thng in lc hin ai la mt trong nhng nhim
vu quan trong nht cua iu khin h thng. Trong h thng cn phai giao nhim vu iu
chnh tn s cho mt s nha may in nht nh (lam vic phn nh phu tai).

Trn hnh 6-6 ve s nguyn ly iu chnh tn s may phat in, trn hnh 6-7
ve cac ng c tnh tn s cua thit b t ng iu chnh tc cua turbin (P
F0
) va c
tnh tn s cua phu tai tng cua h thng co xet n tn tht cng sut trong mang (P
pt0
).
Giao im cua hai ng c tnh nay xac nh tn s lam vic cua h thng f
0
.
Turbin
MF
Hnh 6 - 6
Hnh 6-7
f
0
f
1
f
2
a
b
c
o
P
ft0

P
ft

P
F0

P
F

P
0
P
f
92
Gia s phu tai tng trong h thng tng ln va ta co ng c tnh P
pt
. Nu khng
co thit b t ng iu chnh tc tc cng sut cua may phat in khng i (bng P
0
)
th h thng se chuyn sang lam vic tai im a va tn s se giam xung tr s f
1
. Khi co
iu chnh tc tc co iu chnh s cp th h thng se lam vic tai im b va tn s se
giam xung tr s f
0
> f
2
> f
1
. Khi co thit b t ng iu chnh tn s tc co iu chnh
th cp th ng c tn s cua may phat se dch chuyn ln thanh ng (P
F
) va h
thng se lam vic tai im c ng vi no ta co tn s f
0
= f
0
.
Co th chia qua trnh iu chnh tn s thanh ba giai oan nh sau:
1. Luc u khi phu tai tng t ngt tn s cha kp bin i nn thit b t ng
iu chnh tc va tn s cha tac ng. Cng sut tng se do mi t may phat ganh
mt phn, nhiu t tuy theo sc in ng va goc pha cua chung va cac in khang trong
mang ( P = sin
12
Z
EU
). Trong luc o cng sut cua turbin vn cha tng do o cac may
phat b ham va tn s trong h thng giam xung.
2. Khi lch cua tn s vt qua vung khng nhay cua thit b t ng iu
chnh tc cua turbin (khoang 0,05% f
m
i vi turbin hi va 0,02% f
m
i vi turbin
nc) th cac b iu chnh tc bt u lam vic. Nhng v no co quan tnh nn tac
ng chm tr khoang (1 2 sec), sau khi tac ng lng hi (nc) vao turbin tng va
tn s bt u tng (oan ab trn c tnh P
pt
).
3. Khi lch cua tn s vt qua vung khng nhay cua thit b t ng iu
chnh tn s (khoang 0,02%) th no bt u tac ng va lam dch chuyn ng c tnh
iu chnh tc cua turbin. Tc dch chuyn tng i chm qua trnh iu chnh
chim khoang (30 40 sec) mi phuc hi c tn s nh mc.
6.4.2 Biu thuc tinh toan
Khi co thit b t ng iu chnh tc , ng c tnh tn s cua iu chnh tc
P
F
(f) va ng c tnh tnh cua phu tai P
pt
(f) co tc c xac nh nh sau:
K
F
=
dm Fdm
F
f
f
P
P
: (6-10)
K
pt
=
dm pt
pt
f
f
P
P

: (6-11)
Trong o :
- P
Fm
la cng sut nh mc tng cac may phat in
- P
prm
la tng cng sut phu tai va tn tht trong mang
T (6-10) va (6-11) ta rut ra c:

F
dm
Fdm F
K
f
f
P P .
= (6-12)

pt
dm
pt pt
K
f
f
P P

= (6-13)
93
Du tr cng thc (6-12) ch rng khi tn s giam (f < 0) th cng sut cac may
phat in tng ln (P
F
> 0). Ngc lai cng thc (6-13) khi tn s tng (f > 0) th
cng sut cua phu tai cung tng.
Ta goi la h s d tr:

pt
Fdm
P
P
= (6-14)

Khi trong h thng co bin i v cn bng cng sut mt lng:
P = P
F
- P
pt
(6-15)
se lam cho tn s bin i mt lng la f, xac nh bi phng trnh sau:
( )
pt F
dm
pt pt F
k k
f
f
P P P P +
= = (6-16)
Suy ra :
( )
pt F pt dm
k k P
P
f
f
+
(6-17)

T cng thc (6-17) ta thy rng khi dc K
F
cang ln ngha la ng c tnh
P
F
(f) cang dc th tn s cang n nh. dc c tnh cua may phat tng i ln
K
F
=(15 20) i vi may phat turbin hi va K
F
= (25 50) i vi may phat turbin nc.
Khi cng sut t may khng i tc khng co thit b t ng iu chnh tc , dc
cua c tnh K
F
= 0).
Khi co nhiu t may trong h thng th cn phai xac nh dc trung bnh K
Ftb

cho tt ca cac t may.
i vi mi t may ta co:

fi
dm
Fidm fi
K
f
f
P P .
= (6-18)
Cng lai se co :

=
n
i
Fi Fidm
dm
F
K P
f
f
P
1
. .
Hay :
=
n
Fdm Ftb
dm
F
P K
f
f
P
1
.
Suy ra : K
Ftb
=
=
=
n
i
Fi
n
i
Fi Fidm
P
K P
1
1
(6-19)
Vi du :
Gia s trong h thng co 50% s t may tai y tc phat ht cng sut. 25% s t
may nhit in co d tr cng sut 10% va co dc K
F
= 16,6. 25% s t may con lai la
94
thuy in co d tr cng sut 20% va co dc K
F
= 27. dc cua c tnh phu tai ly
bng 1,5. Hay xac nh khi phu tai tng ln bao nhiu th tn s giam 1%.
Giai:
Theo cng thc (6-19) ta co :

K
Ftb
=
1
27 25 , 0 6 , 16 25 , 0 0 5 , 0 x x x + +
= 10,4
Theo (6-14) ta co :

075 , 1
1
2 , 0 25 , 0 1 , 0 25 , 0 0 5 , 0 1
=
+ + +
=
x x x

Theo cng thc (6-17) ta tnh c bin i tn s h thng nh sau:

68 , 12
1
5 , 1 4 , 10 075 , 1
1
x
P
P
x
x
P
P
f
f
ft ft dm
=
+

Nh vy khi phu tai tng ln 12,68% th tn s h thng se giam xung 1%.
Nu h thng hoan toan khng co d tr tc ta co: K
Ftb
= 0 va = 1, khi o ta
tnh c:
Ngha la khi phu tai tng 1,5% th tn s h thng se giam 1%. Luc nay bin i
cua tn s ch phu thuc vao dc cua ng c tnh tnh cua phu tai.

6.5. DIU CHINH DIN AP TRONG H THNG DIN
6.5.1 Ngun ly chung:
iu chnh in ap ta co th s dung cac phng phap sau :
a/ iu chnh in ap may phat in bng cach iu chnh dong in kch t may
phat.
b/ iu chnh in ap ra cua may bin ap tng ap va ha ap bng cach t u phn
ap c nh hoc iu ap di tai.
c/ iu chnh in ap trn ng dy tai in bng may bin ap iu chnh va bin
ap b tr.
d/ t cac thit b bu ngang co iu chnh thay i tn tht in ap trn ng
dy co th dung b tu in, may bu ng b, ng c in ng b co iu chnh kch t
hoc thit b khang bu nhanh (SVC)
e/ t thit b bu doc trn ng dy thay i in khang ng dy nhm thay
i tn tht in ap.
5 , 1
1
x
P
P
f
f
ft dm

95
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
1
2
3
4
5
o
o
U
C

U
H
o
o
o
o
o o
o
o
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
o
o
o
U
C

U
H
Theo ban cht vt ly, ch co hai phng phap c ban iu chnh in ap la:
hoc tng thm ngun cng sut phan khang (cac phng phap a, d) hoc phn b lai
cng sut phan khang trong mang in (cac phng phap con lai), phng phap sau ch
co hiu qua khi h thng in co u cng sut phan khang. Khi h thng in thiu cng
sut phan khang phng phap duy nht iu chnh in ap la tng thm cac ngun
cng sut phan khang.
6.5.2 Cac thit bj diu chnh din ap:
Cac thit b s dung iu chnh in ap gm co :
- u phn ap cua may bin ap
- May bin ap iu ap di tai
- B iu chnh ng dy
- B tu in co diu chnh
- May bu ng b
- ng c ng b co iu chnh kch t

a. Du phn ap cua may bin ap (MBA)
u dy cao ap cua may bin ap ngoai u
ra chnh con co cac u ra phu goi la u phn ap.
Cac u phn ap cho phep thay i s vong dy cun
cao cua MBA va do o thay i h s bin ap cua
MBA (hnh 6-8).
(Giai thch nguyn ly lam vic)
Hnh 6-8
b. May bin ap du ap duoi tai
May bin ap u ap di tai la loai may bin ap co th thay i u phn ap khi
ang mang tai.S nguyn ly cua mt s loai may bin ap iu ap di tai nh hnh 6-9.

Hnh 6 - 9a Hnh 6 - 9b
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
0
1
2
3
4
o
U
H
o
o
o
o o
MC1
MC2
MC3
MC4
U
C

96

Hnh 6 - 9c

c. B diu chnh duong dy
Co s nguyn ly nh trn hnh 6-10, gm co may bin ap iu chnh co cac u
phn ap phu iu ap di tai va may bin ap b tr ni vao ng dy, in ap tng thm
nay c iu chnh bng cach thay i u phn ap cua may bin ap iu chnh khi
mang tai. B nay co th c u hoc cui ng dy tai in trc khi vao tram bin
ap.
Hnh 6 - 10

o
o
U
H

U
C

o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
-4
-3
-2
-1
o
MBA Chnh
MBA B tr
MBA iu chnh
o
o
oo
o
o
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
MBA iu chnh
MBA B tr
97
~
MBA
MF
U
F
U
R

6.5.3 Diu chnh din ap o nha may din
a. Diu chnh din ap o may phat din
in ap thanh cai may phat co th iu chnh c trong khoang 5% so vi in
ap nh mc cua no. ch phu tai cc ai do tn tht trong mang ln nn am bao
cht lng in nng in ap may phat cn gi cao. Ngc lai trong ch phu tai cc
tiu, tn tht in ap trong mang in nho cn phai giam thp in ap u cc may phat.

b. Diu chnh o may bin ap tng ap
Yu cu in ap thanh cai cao ap
cua MBA tng ap c xac nh bi s cn
bng cng sut phan khang cua h thng in
trong cac ch cc ai va cc tiu. am
bao in ap yu cu chung ta cn phai chon
u phn ap thch hp. Trn hnh 6-11 ve s
may bin ap tng ap. Hnh 6-11
Nu ta t u vao cua MBA mt gia tr bng in ap nh mc cua cun ha ap
U
H
th in ap u ra khi khng tai la U
pa
va khi co tai la U
pa
- U
B
. Trong o U
pa
la in
ap cua u phn ap cn chon va U
B
la tn tht in ap trong MBA.
Khi in ap vao U
V
(U
F
) khac vi U
H
(U
Fm
) th in ap U
r
cung phai khac i vi
cung mt t l
Vy ta co biu thc :

B pa
R
Fdm
F
H
V
U U
U
U
U
U
U

= =
T o suy ra c:

B pa
R
Fdm F
U U
U
U U

= (6-20)

Khi bit in ap yu cu chnh la U
R
trong cac ch phu tai va bit U
B
th theo
(6-20) ta co th la chon u phn ap U
pa
phi hp vi U
F
iu chnh in ap.

6.5.4 Diu chnh din ap bng cach dt thit bj bu ngang
Thit b bu thng oc s dung iu chnh in ap khi s dung cac phng
tin khac khng am bao tiu chun v cht lng in nng. Thit b bu thng dung la
tu in tnh, may bu ng b hoc cac ng c ng b co th iu chnh kch t. Vic s
dung thit b bu con co lila nng cao tnh kinh t cua mang in.
Ta xet s nh hnh 6-12, am bao in ap yu cu thanh cai ha ap U
B
, ta
cn t y thit b bu vi dung lng Q
b
.

98
Hnh 6-12

- Trc khi t thit b bu in ap thanh cai U
A
co gia tr :
0
0
B
B A
U
QX PR
U U
+
+ = (6-21)
Trong o : U
A
la in ap u ngun,
U
B0
in ap thanh cai B qui i v pha cao ap,
P, Q : cng sut tac dung va phan khang cua phu tai,
X, R : Thng s ng dy va may bin ap.
Trc khi t bu doc ta co :
- Sau khi t thit b bu ta co :
B
b
B A
U
X Q Q PR
U U
) ( +
+ = (6-22)
Trong o : U
B
in ap thanh cai B qui i v pha cao ap.
Cn bng (6-21) va (6-22) ta co:

B
b
B
B
B
U
X Q Q PR
U
U
QX PR
U
) (
0
0
+
+ =
+
+
T o suy ra:
0
0
B B
B B
B
b
U
QX PR
U
QX PR
U U
U
X Q +
+
+ =
Co th xem:
B B
U
QX PR
U
QX PR +
+
0

Do o ta co:
X
U U U
Q
B B B
b
) (
0
= (6-22)

Theo (6-22) khi thay U
B
, X, U
B0
cac ch phu tai khac nhau ta xac nh c
dung lng bu cn thit moi ch vn hanh cua mang in. V U
B
phu thuc vao h s
bin ap cua MBA nn co th t u phn ap hp ly sao cho dung lng bu cn t la be
nht.

MBA
U
A
U
B
U
A

U
B

X R
P - jQ
99
6.5.5 Diu chnh din ap bng cach dt thit bj bu doc
iu chnh in ap co th t thit b bu doc bng cach mc ni tip tu in
trn ng dy nh trn hnh 6-13.
a/ b/

- U
B1
: Khi co t tu bu doc
- U
B2
: Khi khng t tu bu doc

Hnh 6 - 13
B tu co tac dung lam giam in khang ng dy, do o lam cho tn tht in ap
giam i.
Trc khi t thit b bu doc ta co tn tht in ap:
U
QX PR
U
+
=
Sau khi t thit b bu doc tn tht in ap:
U
X X Q PR
U
C
) ( +
=
Ro rang la tn tht in ap trn ng dy giam xung khi ta t tu bu doc.
Gia thit rng b tu bu co m nhanh va mi nhanh co n tu in vi in ap nh
mc U
0
va cng sut nh mc Q
0
cua mi tu. Cn xac nh s lng m va n.
- S tu in trong mt nhanh n phai thoa man iu kin in ap :
nU
0
U
t

U
t
la in ap thc t trn cc cua b tu
3
10 . .
. 3

= =
C
dm
C t
X
U
S
IX U [KV]
Trong o : I, S : dong in va cng sut i qua b tu
Suy ra
3
0
0
10 . .
. 3

=
C
dm
t
X
U U
S
U
U
n (6-23)
- S nhanh m phai thoa man iu kin dong in :
mI
0
I
U
A

U
B1
U
B2
U
A
U
B
U
A

U
B1
U
B2
U
A
U
B
100
Trong o : I
0
la dong in cho phep cua tu in
0
0
0
U
Q
I = [A]

Suy ra:
C
dm
X
nX
Q U
SU
I
I
m
0
0
0
0
. 3
= = = (6-24)
Trong o: - X
0
: in khang cua tu
- ] [ 10 .
3
0
2
0
0
=
Q
U
X
Qua hnh 6-13 ta thy ni t tu co anh hng n phn b in ap trn ng
dy. Nu mang ch co mt phu tai cui ng dy thng t tu ngay tram bin ap
phn phi. Khi mang co nhiu phu tai phn b doc ng dy th cn phai cn nhc
la chon im t tu cho phu hp. Noi chung im t cang gn v pha ngun cang cn
t tu in va mc in ap cang n nh.

Van Hanh He Thong Dien

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Van Hanh He Thong Dien

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Mn hoc: Vn hanh H thng in

1. Dang phuong trinh:

ngha la chi ph nhin liu nha may th k khng phu

tiu hao c tnh nh sau:

.......... .......... ..........

ng sut phat cua nhit in gam i nn gia tr cua giam, v vy = /q la

< < + >

la tng cng sut t cua cac t may trong HT

Mn hoc: Vn hanh H thng in

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