Chng 6: Chon mau

Chng nay se tap trung thao luan 3 van e chnh sau ay: 6.1-Tai sao lai lay mau? Cac khai niem c ban 6.2-Chon mau xac suat va chon mau phi xac suat 6.3 6.3-Xac nh kch thc mau

6.1 6.1-Tai sao lai lay mau? Cac khai niem c ban
Trong mot cuoc bau c, ch mot phan nho c tri c hoi ve cac y nh bo phieu cua ho, ngay ca khi s quan tam cuoi cung cua ngi tham do la vic anh gia ket qua la chon cui cng hoan tat ve nhng phieu hp le ung ho S dung thuat ng thong ke, moi c tri c goi la n v, cac c tri thc te c tham do c goi la mau va tap hp toan bo nhng ngi hp le cho bo phieu c goi la tong the (tong so) (population).

6.1 6.1-Tai sao lai lay mau? Cac khai niem c ban (tt)
S la chon cac ng c vien trong bau c tong thong co the c xem xet nh nhng gia tr cua bien ng c No se la ung an, nhng khong thong dng, e goi rang ng c vien nhan c so ln cac phieu bau trong tong the (tong so) la mot tham so Toan bo qua trnh e co c ket qua bang cach nay c goi la chon mau.

6.1 6.1-Tai sao lai lay mau? Cac khai niem c ban (tt)
Trong ieu tra mc song dan c hang nam, Moi ho tren a ban dan c la n v ho Neu tien hanh ieu tra toan bo so ho se rat ton kem. V vay thng la ieu tra phong van tap hp nho hn so tong, tap hp nho nay c goi la mau So lng n v ho trong mau goi la c hay kch thc mau va thng c ky hieu la n, tong so ho dan c thng ky hieu la N.

6.2 6.2-Chon mau xac suat va chon mau phi xac suat
Thiet ke chon mau co the chia thanh hai loai: thiet ke chon mau xac suat va thiet ke chon mau phi xac suat Chon mau phi xac suat la chon theo ch nh chu quan cua ngi nghien cu Mot so chon mau phi chnh thc bao gom: (1) chon mau thuan tien; (2) chon mau phan oan; n; va (3) chon mau ch nh

Chon mau thuan tien

Chon mau thuan tien, khong can chu y en tnh ai dien ma ch chu y en tnh thuan tien cho ngi nghien cu. Chang han chung ta co the phong van giam oc kinh doanh ma chung ta quen biet

Chon mau phan oan

Chon mau phan oan la s phan oan cua ngi nghien cu ve cac nhom ai dien e chon so n v ai dien trong tong so cua cac nhom phan oan n gian la chung ta co gang e chon so oi tng ma chung ta ngh rang so oi tng o co the ai dien cho tong the Th du, e nghien cu 3 loai doanh nghiepkhach hang co quy mo doanh nghiep theo mc ln, va va nho, ngi nghien cu se chon ra 3 nhom doanh nghiep -khach hang va phan oan rang o la 3 nhom ai dien cho oi tng khach hang tng ng vi 3 loai quy mo doanh nghiep ln, va va nho

Chon mau ch nh
Chon mau ch nh la lay theo ty le gan ung cua cac nhom ai dien trong tong the Chung ta co the tin chac rang co mot so phan loai cac nhom oi tng nao o, chang han nh cac cong ty nho, cac cong ty trung bnh va cac cong ty ln c chon lam ai dien theo so mau gan ung vi cung mot ty le ma no chiem trong tong the Th du, tong cac oi tng nghien cu la 1.000 cong ty, trong o co 600 cong ty nho, 300 cong ty trung bnh va 100 cong ty ln. Vi so chon mau ch nh la 10 10% % tren tong the, nh vay so cong ty nho c chon se la 60 cong ty, cong ty trung bnh la 30 va cong ty ln la 10

Chon mau phi xac suat (tt)

Chon mau phi xac suat la de phac thao va thc hien, nhng co the cho ket qua sai lech bat chap s phan oan cua chung ta nh the nao, neu chung khong ai dien cho tong the Han che chnh cua chon mau phi xac suat la chon mau nay khong a ra c s e anh gia quy mo giao ong cua mau va sai so c lng Chon mau phi xac suat co the ap dung cho nghien cu s bo hay ieu tra th, ieu tra lam ro c s cac gia thuyet.

Chon mau xac suat

Chon mau xac suat la da vao ly thuyet xac suat e lay mau ngau nhien Co mot so cach lay mau ngau nhien o l: (1) lay mau ngau nhien n thuan; (2) lay mau ngau nhien he thong, va (3) lay mau ngau nhien phan tang g .

Lay mau ngau nhien n thuan

Lay mau ngau nhien n thuan la cach lay mau ma moi n v phan t trong tong the eu co c hoi ngang nhau xuat hien trong mau Th du: chung ta co the anh so cac phan t cua tong the, tng ng vi moi so a c an nh cho tng phan t la mot nhan hieu, sau o ta xao tron cac nhan hieu va rut ngau nhien theo so lng a nh se cho ta mot chon mau ngau nhien.

TH DU CHON MAU NGAU NHIEN N THUAN

Chung ta cung co the ap dung phng phap tra bang so ngau nhien-la mot bang liet ke san cac con so ngau nhien va chng trnh may tnh tnh. . Cach s dung bang so ngau nhien nh sau sau: : (1) Xac nh so cot so se s dung tng ng vi so ch so cua tong the can nghien cu. Th du tong the nghien cu N=900 N=900 cong ty, khi o so cot ch so s dung la 3 cot, neu tong the nghien cu la 1500 cong ty, khi o so cot ch so s dung se la 4 cot;

TH DU CHON MAU NGAU NHIEN N THUAN (tt)

(2) Xac nh con so se c chon lam phan t mau, con so o phai ln hn 0 va nho hn tong the N (trong th du cua chung ta la 900 hoac 1500, 1500 , tc con so th t s dung cho cac phan t se t 1 en 900 hoac t 1 en 1500) 1500); (3) So lng phan t c chon bang kch thc mau. Neu kch thc mau n bang 10% tong the, theo th du cua chung ta n se la 90 hoac 150 cong ty;

TH DU CHON MAU NGAU NHIEN N THUAN (tt)

(4)Tiep theo ta s dung chng trnh may tnh

e chon ngau nhien 90 hoac 150 phan t gia cac so t 11-900 hoac t 1 1-1500. Chung ta co the s dung ba hoac bon cot tng ng vi so tong the la 900 hay 1500 t bang so ngau nhien Nhn t tren xuong t mot iem bat au tuy y, ta liet ke toan bo nhng ch so nho hn 901 hoac nho hn 1501, am bao ieu kien ta cha liet ke trc o. Khi o bang liet ke se co 90 hoac 150 con so, so mau cong ty c chon la cong ty tng ng vi con so trong bang liet ke.

Lay mau co he thong

Lay mau co he thong la cach lay mau au tien la ngau nhien sau o c cach k n v lai chon mot phan t (con goi la chon nhay coc, trong o k la khoang cach bc nhay) Th du, ta chon 90 phan t (cong ty) trong tong so 900 phan t (cong ty), ty le lay mau khi o se la 90 90/ /900 900= =1/10. 10. Nh vay khoang cach bc nhay k =10 10. . Cac so th t cua cong ty c xep t 1 en 900 900. . ay can phai xac nh phan t au tien la ngau nhien.

Lay mau co he thong (tt)

Co the co hai cach e xac nh phan t au tien ngau nhien. Cach th nhat, la lay ngau nhien trong toan bo tong the 900 cong ty ( co the la 1 hoac 20, hay 900), sau o t phan t a c chon cong them hoac tr i k ( trong th du cua chung ta la tr i hoac cong them 10, k=10). Neu phan t ngau nhien la 900 phai tr i 10, neu phan t au tien la 1 th cong them 10

Lay mau co he thong (tt)

Cach th hai, la lay ngau nhien trong k n v au tien Trong th du cua chung ta k=10. Nh vay ta chon phan t au tien bang cach chon mot phan t ngau nhien trong 10 phan t au tien, gia s phan t au tien c chon la 5 chang han. Khi o cac phan t tham gia mau se la 5, 15, 25. (5+k) cho ti khi u so mau 90 phan t hay 90 cong ty tng ng can chon

Lay mau ngau nhien phan tang

Lay mau ngau nhien phan tang la phan cac oi tng nghien cu thanh cac nhom, tang theo cac ac tnh, sau o lay mau theo tang, nhom Chang han phan nhom cay trong rng theo o tuoi e chon mau khao sat. Nh tang 1 gom tong so cay tren 100 tuoi, tang 2 gom tong so cay t 50 tuoi en 100 tuoi, tang 3 gom tong so cay di 50 tuoi Sau o ap dung phng phap chon mau ngau nhien n thuan cho moi tang. Cach chon mau nay co o chnh xac cao va co the phan tch ket qua theo cac tang so sanh s khac biet..

6.3 6.3-Xac nh kch thc mau

Kch thc mau c tang len, tren tong the se hoan thien chat lng ket qua thong ke Neu muc ch cua ieu tra la c tnh tham so cha biet, th chat lng cua ket qua la quan he nghch vi kch thc cua sai so c tnh cho phep Sai so c tnh bang gia tr tuyet oi cua khoang cach biet gia thong so cha biet va thong so c tnh. Nhng khi tham so cha biet th sai so c tnh cung la cha biet. V vay xac nh xac suat la can thiet.

6.3 6.3-Xac nh kch thc mau (tt)

Sai so cho phep co the tnh bang %, va thng c ky hieu la va o tin cay cho phep tnh bang xac suat P Cac nha toan hoc-thong ke hoc a tnh toan c bang tnh kch thc mau n phu thuoc vao P va Chang han bang tnh kch thc mau theo 1 so gia tr cua P va di ay:

p 0,05 0,04 0,03

0,85 207 323 375

0,90 270 422 755

0,95 384 600 1867

6.3 6.3-Xac nh kch thc mau (tt)

Mot so cong thc tnh c mau toi thieu a co trong nhieu tai lieu thong ke. Di ay n c mot cong thc xac nh n (6.1)

n = N

N .

Z
+

pq
2

pq

Trong o p la ty le mau d kien chon n1 so vi tong so (so lng tong the oi tng) N, p=n1/N /N; ; q= q=1 1-p ; Z c goi la gia tr bien thien chuan c tnh san trong bang ng vi o tin cay P.

6.3 6.3-Xac nh kch thc mau (tt)

Kch thc mau toi thieu theo cong thc tren la ln nhat khi mau so la nho nhat va t so la cao nhat. Ta co the thay gia tr ln nhat cua t trong cong thc tren xuat hien khi p=q=1p=q=1-p hay p=0,5, nh vay n se la:

(6.2)

Z Z n = 0,5x(1 0,5) = 0,25

6.3 6.3-Xac nh kch thc mau (tt)

Khi biet =0,1, o tin cay hay xac suat P= P=0 0,9, khi o tra bang co gia tr bien thien chuan Z= Z=2 2,58 58, , kch thc mau toi thieu can chon n=166 n=166. . Khi biet quy mo tong the N, ta cung co the xac nh kch thc mau theo cong thc sau sau: :

(6.3)

Z p .q

Th du:
Xac nh kch thc mau trong ieu tra mc song dan c tai mot huyen co 25 25. .000 ho dan, vi sai so cho phep la 1% va o tin cay la 95 95% % Co mot so cach xac nh kch thc mau trong th du nay: Cach th nhat: Ta khong tnh en quy mo tong the N. Tra bang tnh kch thc mau, vi =0,01 01; ; p= 0,95 95, , ta co n=9 n=9.603. 603.

Th du (tt)
Cach th hai: Nh cach th nhat, ta cung khong tnh en quy mo tong the N Cho p=q=0 p=q=0,5, va tra bang gia tr cua Z (tra bang ng vi o tin cay (p) va sai so , Z=1 Z=1,96 96), ), a cac thong so q, p, Z vao cong thc (6.2) ta co n= 0,25 25( (1,96 96/ /0,01 01) )2 = 9.604 604, , gan giong ket qua cua cach th nhat.

Th du (tt)
Cach th ba: Ta tnh en quy mo tong the N. Khi o ta ieu tra tam tren so mau ban au n1= 7.500 ho gia nh, nh vay ty le mau d kien ban au se la 30% (7.500/25.000) hay p=0,3, khi o q=1q=1 -0,3=0,7 Tra bang phan bo chuan, ta cung biet Z=1,96. Van dung cong thc (6.3) vi cac thong so , q, p va Z se cho ta gia tr kch thc mau: n= (25.000x1,962x0,3x0,7)/(25.000x0,012+ Z2x0,3x0,7)=6.093. Trong trng hp nay n1> n, ta khong can tien hanh ieu tra them. Trong trng hp n1< n, ta phai tien hanh ieu tra them nn-n1 ho na

3-Xac nh kch thc mau (tt)

Trong cach th nhat va cach th hai, ta khong tnh en quy mo tong the va co so mau ln, con trong cach th ba, ta tnh en quy mo tong the N, kch thc mau se nho hn Tuy nhien, trong trng hp quy mo tong the N ln hn, cac ket qua ve kch thc mau co the ngc lai vi ket qua tren.

Cau hoi thao luan:

1) Cac khai niem c ban ve mau, kch thc mau, cach xac nh? 2/ Chon mau xac suat va chon mau phi xac suat, u nhuc iem va pham vi ap dung? 3/ Hay ap dung mot trong cac cong thc tnh kch thc mau cho trng hp mot nghien cu cu the cua ban

BI TP 5:
(1) Xc nh i tng v s mu (kch c mu) iu tra nghin cu vn t ra bi trcc-gii trnh cch xc nh (2) Hy la chn hnh thc chn mu thch hp cho vn nghin cu ca bn