Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | July 16, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | July 16, 2013 News and Analysis

International Commodities
Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

German ZEW Economic Sentiment declined to 36.3-mark in July. UKs Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.9 percent in June. European ZEW Economic Sentiment rose to 32.8 in current month. European equities are trading lower today on the back of unexpected decline in German economic sentiments data. Asian markets ended on a positive note and US stock futures are trading on a flat note. German ZEW Economic Sentiment declined by 2.2 points to 36.3mark in July from earlier rise of 38.5-level in June. European ZEW Economic Sentiment rose by 2.2 points to 32.8-level in current month with respect to rise of 30.6-mark in June. UKs Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.9 percent in June as against a rise of 2.7 percent in May. Producer Price Index (PPI) Input rose by 0.2 percent in June from earlier fall of 0.6 percent a month ago. Spot gold prices increase around 0.5 percent in todays trade on the back of weakness in the US Dollar Index (DX). However, sharp upside in prices was capped on the back of weak global market sentiments. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1288.5/oz and hovered around $1288.3/oz today till 4:30pm IST. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee prevented sharp upside in prices on the MCX. Taking cues from fall in base metals complex coupled with weak global markets, Spot silver prices fell around 0.05 percent today. However, weakness in the DX along with positive movement in gold prices cushioned sharp fall in prices. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee capped sharp gains in prices on the MCX. The base metals group traded on a mixed note today on the back of mixed LME inventories. Further, weakness in the DX supported an upside in prices. However, unfavorable economic data from Euro Zone and weak global markets added downside pressure on prices. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee capped sharp gains in prices on the MCX. Copper the leader of the base metals pack rose around 0.2 percent today on account of weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside in prices was capped on the back of rise in LME copper inventories by 0.6 percent which stood at 641,825 tonnes coupled with decline in German economic sentiments data. On the domestic front, appreciation in the Indian Rupee restricted sharp upside in prices. Nymex crude oil prices rose around 0.2 percent today taking cues from expectations of decline in API crude oil inventories. Further, weakness in the DX acted as a positive factor. On the domestic bourses, appreciation in the Rupee restricted sharp upside in prices. The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories are expected to decline by 2.0 million barrels for the week ending on 12th July 2013.

as at 4.15 pm 16 July 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5930.80 19788.09 14594.88 1875.53 15905.04

5966.05 19890.63 14638.80 1875.68 15916.17

5910.95 19649.58 14550.89 1860.37 15667.43

5955.25 19851.23 14599.12 1866.36 15667.43

-1.25 -0.91 0.64 -0.47 0.11

Source: Reuters

as at 4.15 pm 16 July 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

83.25 1.3061 59.18

83.27 1.3124 59.49

82.855 1.3051 59.12

82.87 1.3118 59.21

-0.39 0.43 -0.99

Source: Reuters

as at 4.15 pm 16 July 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Aug13 MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Sept13 MCX Silver Sept13 Crude Oil Nymex Aug 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Aug 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Aug13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - July13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - July13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX July13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX July13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz

1281.69 1279.40 26380.00 19.92 0.1968 40826 106.44 109.05 6289 6940.00 414.75 1891.00 110.70 2054 121.50 13500 801.70 1810.00 105.55

1288.50 1285.50 26573.0 19.96 0.1972 41093 106.74 109.58 6328 6975.00 417.00 1897.50 111.30 2064 122.20 13573 806.50 1815.25 106.10

1276.95 1279.40 26340.0 19.66 0.19675 40674 105.91 108.63 6286 6913.00 414.20 1877.00 109.80 2043 120.60 13485 795.80 1793.75 104.60

1288.30 1285.50 26502.00 19.88 0.1972 41007 106.55 109.52 6317 6955.00 415.55 1877.25 110.00 2048 120.95 13566 803.50 1794.50 104.65

0.49 0.13 0.24 -0.05 -0.53 0.14 0.22 0.39 0.51 0.23 0.39 -0.67 -0.54 -0.39 -0.33 0.19 0.22 -0.82 -0.76

Rs/kg $/bbl

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | July 16, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook

In the evening session, we expect precious metals, base metals and crude oil prices to trade higher on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, expectations of favorable economic data from US will support an upside in prices. However, sharp upside in prices will be capped on the back of decline in German economic sentiments data. Crude oil prices will get further support in prices taking cues from forecast for decline in API crude oil inventories.

Technical Outook for evening session 16 July 13 ( CMP as of 4.30 pm)

Commodity Gold Aug'13 Spot Gold Silver Sept13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Aug13 Nymex Crude Oil Aug13 Natural Gas July13 LME Copper Copper Aug13 Zinc July13 Lead July13 Aluminum July13 Nickel July13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2
26200 1273 40400 19.59 6230 105 211 6860 410 108.4 119 103.4 783

Support 1
26350 1280 40750 19.76 6280 105.9 215 6910 413 109 120 104 793

CMP
26482 1286.7 40985 19.87 6316 106.52 218 6956 415.3 109.85 120.85 104.6 802.6

Resistance1
26700 1297 41400 20.07 6380 107.6 219.5 7010 419 110.6 122 105.3 810

Resistance 2
26800 1302 41800 20.27 6420 108.3 222 7060 422 111.5 123.1 106.2 819

Important Events for Today

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

CPI y/y PPI Input m/m RPI y/y German ZEW Economic Sentiment CPI y/y Core CPI y/y ZEW Economic Sentiment BOE Inflation Letter MPC Member Fisher Speaks Core CPI m/m CPI m/m TIC Long-Term Purchases Capacity Utilization Rate Industrial Production m/m FOMC Member George Speaks

UK UK UK Euro Euro Euro Euro UK UK US US US US US US

2:00pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 2:30pm Tentative 4:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:30pm 6:45pm 6:45pm 11:45pm

2.9% 0.2% 3.3% 36.3 1.6% 1.2% 32.8 -

3.0% -0.1% 3.4% 39.9 1.6% 1.2% 31.8 0.2% 0.3% 14.3B 77.9% 0.3% -

2.7% -0.3% 3.1% 38.5 1.6% 1.2% 30.6 0.2% 0.1% -37.3B 77.6% 0.0% -

High Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium High Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium