July 19, 2013

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The ValuEngine Weekly is an Investor Education newsletter focused on the quantitative approach to investing and the tools available from In today's fast-moving and globalized financial markets, it is easy to get overloaded with information. The winners will adopt an objective, scientific, independent and unemotional approach to investing. If you are not yet a member of ValuEngine's stock analysis service, sign up now for a two-week free trial at www.valuengine.com! ValuEngine.com.

VALUATION WARNING: Our models find that overvaluation is at levels typically seen when market pullbacks occur. Overvalued stocks now make up 76% of our stocks assigned a valuation and 41% of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. 15 of 16 sectors are calculated to be overvalued--13 of them by double digits. MARKET OVERVIEW

Index
DJIA NASDAQ RUSSELL 2000 S&P 500

Week Open
15459.69 3601.09 1038.2 1679.59

Thurs. Close
15548.54 3611.28 1050.27 1689.37

Change
88.85 10.19 12.07 9.78

% Change
0.57% 0.28% 1.16% 0.58%

YTD
18.37% 19.23% 23.55% 18.31%

Summary of VE Stock Universe

Stocks Undervalued Stocks Overvalued Stocks Undervalued by 20% Stocks Overvalued by 20% 23.87% 76.13% 9.70% 43.60%

SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector
Aerospace Auto-Tires-Trucks Basic Materials Business Services Computer and Technology Construction Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Finance Industrial Products Medical Multi-Sector Conglomerates Oils-Energy Retail-Wholesale Transportation Utilities

Change
0.70% 1.08% 0.28% 0.85% -0.08% 0.75% 0.20% 0.62% 0.71% 0.44% 0.38% 0.43% 0.40% 0.50% 1.27% 0.89%

MTD
4.36% 8.46% 4.60% 4.92% 7.34% 5.22% 5.20% 4.66% 7.56% 5.93% 7.66% 4.87% 5.73% 5.36% 4.72% 6.50%

YTD
25.44% 38.73% 1.42% 69.46% 26.49% 32.48% 28.79% 15.80% 25.84% 26.82% 203.21% 6.60% 13.77% 32.64% 26.28% 16.88%

Valuation
20.81% overvalued 25.69% overvalued 7.66% undervalued 16.35% overvalued 22.49% overvalued 14.26% overvalued 25.11% overvalued 21.77% overvalued 18.88% overvalued 17.94% overvalued 18.32% overvalued 11.93% overvalued 5.01% overvalued 25.37% overvalued 16.35% overvalued 9.45% overvalued

Last 12MReturn
32.25% 43.24% -23.42% 19.21% 24.07% 33.58% 28.82% 17.16% 17.82% 25.87% 20.40% 18.19% 7.40% 36.88% 20.13% 10.24%

P/E Ratio
18.02 18.51 20.04 23.56 30.3 24.89 24.61 21.63 17.95 20.59 25.25 17.2 27.43 22.92 20.62 21.04

Sector TalkOils/Energy
Below, we present the latest data on leading Oils/Energy Sector stocks from our Institutional software package (VEI) . These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.

Top-Five Oils/Energy Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
SSL CVI PSX DK TSO

Name
SASOL LTD -ADR CVR ENERGY INC PHILLIPS 66 DELEK US HLDGS TESORO CORP

Mkt Price
45.06 45.78 56.92 27.38 51.1

Valuation(%)
N/A 4.75 -4.04 8.04 17.29

Last 12-M Retn(%)

4.77 59.23 53.42 40.19 82.57

Top-Five Oils/Energy Sector Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
SSL CVI PSX TSO DK

Name
SASOL LTD -ADR CVR ENERGY INC PHILLIPS 66 TESORO CORP DELEK US HLDGS

Mkt Price
45.06 45.78 56.92 51.1 27.38

Valuation(%)
N/A 4.75 -4.04 17.29 8.04

Last 12-M Retn(%)

4.77 59.23 53.42 82.57 40.19

Top-Five Oils/Energy Sector Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker
FSLR PSX MPC CVI TSO

Name
FIRST SOLAR INC PHILLIPS 66 MARATHON PETROL CVR ENERGY INC TESORO CORP

Mkt Price
48.86 56.92 68.29 45.78 51.1

Valuation(%)
-32.52 -4.04 -8.35 4.75 17.29

Last 12-M Retn(%)

237.66 53.42 45.83 59.23 82.57

Top-Five Oils/Energy Sector Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker
WLT SOL JKS GPOR LNG

Name
WALTER ENERGY RENESOLA LT-ADR JINKOSOLAR HLDG GULFPORT ENGY CHENIERE ENERGY

Mkt Price
13.56 3.73 12.18 50.88 30.15

Valuation(%)
300 274.12 150.79 132.93 127.75

Last 12-M Retn(%)

-63.79 168.35 283.02 143.1 122.18

Find out what Wall Street Investment and Media Professionals already know, ValuEngine offers sophisticated stock valuation and forecast research as well as a variety of portfolio screening and creation tools. If you are reading this you should sign up for ValuEngine's award-winning To Sign Up for a stock valuation and forecast FREE TRIAL, service Please Click HERE NO OBLIGATION, 30 DAY FREE TRIAL!

Free Download for Readers

As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers, we are offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our Detailed Stock Valuation Reports--this report is normally $25.00

This week's free download is our report on General Electric (GE). General Electric Company operates as a technology and financial services company. Its segments include Energy Infrastructure, Aviation, Healthcare, Transportation, Home & Business Solutions and GE Capital. The company's Energy Infrastructure segment offers wind turbines; gas and steam turbines and generators. Its Aviation segment offers jet engines, turboprop and turbo shaft engines, aerospace systems and equipment. Its Healthcare segment provides medical imaging and information technologies, medical diagnostics, patient monitoring systems. Its Transportation segment provides drive technology solutions to various industries. Its Home and Business Solutions segment provides home appliances; lighting products, plant automation, hardware, software, and embedded computing systems. Its GE Capital segment offers commercial loans and leases, fleet management, financial programs, credit cards, personal loans and other financial services. General Electric Company is headquartered in Fairfield, Connecticut. ValuEngine continues its BUY recommendation on General Electric for 2013-0718. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that General Electric has the probability to OUTPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE Company Size and P/E Ratio.

Read our Complete Detailed Valuation Report on General Electric HERE.

What's Hot-ValuEngine View Continues S&P 500 Domination

So far, this has not been a Summer to Sell in May and Go Away. Markets continue to impress with record levels being set. Economic data continues to improve--with the housing market numbers reaching pre-crisis levels in terms of home builder confidence, and the Fed continues to make noises about pulling back on various support programs. This should be good news, but we have seen bad reactions to the realization that ZIRP must one day come to an end in the past. If only the labor market would improve, that seems to be the last piece of the puzzle. Of course, with sequestration and austerity still ruling the day in Washington DC, that may not be an easy piece to put into place. Strong markets have meant very strong performance from our various long portfolios. Currently, our best performing newsletter over the past twelve months is the ValuEngine View. We re-balanced the VE this week and once again the results were impressive. For this edition of the ValuEngine View, the portfolio returned almost 6.5% versus the S&P's gain of 1.48%. We quadrupled the benchmark return and beat it by 499 bps. Thirteen of our fifteen picks provided positive returns with six picks returning double-digits. The trailing 12 month gain of the VE View is 69% versus the S&P 500 return of 24.25%. The return since inception of the View is 75.27% versus the S&P's gain of 48.02% Here are the results from the latest edition of the ValuEngine View:

Symbol
AAMRQ BPOP CADX CBD CBK CVI ENOC

Company Name
AMR CORP POPULAR INC CADENCE PHARMA PAO ACUCAR-GDR CHRISTOPHER & BANKS CVR ENERGY INC ENERNOC INC

Entry Price 6/19/13

4.7 28.69 6.89 45.67 6.42 54.82 12.96

Exit Price
5.32 32.05 7.41 46.19 7.2 47.29 15.21

Change
0.62 3.36 0.52 0.52 0.78 -7.53 2.25

%Change
13.19 11.71 7.55 1.14 12.15 -13.74 17.36

Symbol
FBC FSLR GA GILD ICA NMR PIKE TEO

Company Name
FLAGSTAR BANCORP FIRST SOLAR INC GIANT INTERACTIVE GILEAD SCIENCES EMPRESAS ICA NOMURA HLDG-ADR PIKE ELECTRIC TELECOM ARGENTINA

Entry Price 6/19/13

13.88 45.96 7.75 51.94 6.71 7.97 12.72 14.45

Exit Price
14.5 48.91 7.71 57.14 7.85 8.23 12.94 15.23

Change
0.62 2.95 -0.04 5.20 1.14 0.26 0.22 0.78

%Change
4.47 6.42 -0.52 10.01 16.99 3.26 1.73 5.40

LONG PORTFOLIO GSPC S&P500 1651.81 1676.26 24.45

6.47 1.48

Why Subscribe to The ValuEngine View Newsletter? Click HERE to Download a FREE Sample of the ValuEngine View
The ValuEngine View newsletter is the product of a sophisticated stock valuation model that was first developed by ValuEngine's academic research team. It utilizes a three factor approach: fundamental variables such as a company's trailing 12-month Earnings-Per-Share (EPS), the analyst consensus estimate of the company's future 12month EPS, and the 30-year Treasury yield are all used to create a more accurate reflection of a company's fair value. A total of eleven additional firm specific variables are also used. Investors subscribe to our newsletter because of the quality of our research and the success of our portfolios. Our newsletter is relatively new but we have been providing our investment research to many investment professionals on Wall Street for years. The newsletter is edited by ValuEngine's team of research analysts, led by Steve Hach. The ValuEngine models make the initial stock selections, then editors review those selections and eliminate any stocks they feel are not appropriate or too risky. An analyst then writes up the newsletter each month and publishes to the website.

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Suttmeier Says
--Commentary and Analysis from Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier
If you have any comments or questions, send them to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com Treasury Yields 10-Year--(2.536) Weekly and semiannual value levels are 2.800 and 3.227 with daily, annual, monthly, annual and semiannual risky levels at 2.504, 2.476, 2.284, 1.981 and 1.719. Commodities and Forex Comex Gold ($1282.3) My weekly value level is $1268.6 with a monthly pivot at $1289.4, and daily, annual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $1316.1, $1599.9, $1603.0 and $1852.1. Nymex Crude Oil ($108.08) Monthly, weekly and quarterly value levels are $101.69, $100.76 and $91.75 with daily, semiannual and annual risky levels at $109.58, $109.84 and $115.23. The Euro (1.3109) Semiannual and quarterly value levels are 1.2477 and 1.1545 with daily, weekly, monthly and annual risky levels at 1.3214, 1.3293, 1.3231 and 1.3257. Major Indices Daily Dow: (15,549) Weekly, quarterly and annual value levels are 14,981, 14,288 and 12,696 with my monthly pivot at 15,437, the July 18 all time high at 15,589.40, a daily risky level at 15,669, and my semiannual risky level at 16,490. S&P 500 (1689.4) Weekly, quarterly and annual value levels are 1608.4, 1525.6 and 1348.3 with a monthly pivot at 1669.0, the July 18 all time high at 1693.12, a daily risky level at 1710.3, and my semiannual risky level at 1743.5. NASDAQ (3611) Weekly, quarterly and annual value levels are 3445, 3284 and 2806 with a monthly pivot at 3510, the July 18 multi-year high at 3624.54, a daily risky level at 3680, and semiannual risky level at 3759.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (3078) Quarterly, monthly, weekly and annual value levels are 2983, 2978, 2930 and 2463 with the July 18 multi-year high at 3091.21, a daily risky level at 3150, and semiannual risky level at 3304. Dow Transports (6579) Weekly, annual and quarterly value levels are 6070, 5925, 5469 and 5348 with the July 18 all time high at 6595.90, daily and monthly risky levels at 6650 and 6758, and semiannual risky level at 7104. Russell 2000 (1049.93) Weekly, quarterly and annual value levels are 994.17, 863.05, 860.25 and 809.54 with the July 18 all time high at 1052.46, a monthly pivot at 1030.75, and daily / semiannual risky levels at 1064.66 / 1089.42. The SOX (487.22) Weekly, quarterly and annual value levels are 474.20, 404.59 and 338.03 with monthly and daily risky levels at 496.16 and 504.76, and semiannual risky level at 533.56. Dow Utilities: (506.90) Monthly and weekly value levels are 489.78 and 457.58 with daily, quarterly, semiannual and annual risky levels at 515.36, 510.38, 523.33 and 540.37.

Stock of the Day

Here is today's stock of the day from Richard Suttmeier's Morning Briefing Newsletter.

Netflix (NFLX) ($266.41) Netflix Inc. is the largest online movie rental subscription service in the United States providing subscribers access to a comprehensive library of more than 18,000 movie, television and other filmed entertainment titles. The standard subscription plan allows subscribers to have three titles out at the same time with no due dates, late fees or shipping charges for a monthly fee.

Analysis Netflix has a Buy rating according to ValuEngine with fair value at $181.80, which makes the stock 47.4% overvalued, The ValuEngine one-year price target is $282.95. The daily chart for Netflix shows overbought momentum with the stock above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at $233.79, $228.26 and $155.08. My semiannual value level is $237.48 with a monthly risky level at $272.18.

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Intelligent Investing with Richard Suttmeier

Articles by Richard Suttmeier | Articles by Steve Hach

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