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Cisco Visual Networking Index: Forecast and Methodology, 20122017

May 29, 2013

This forecast is part of the Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI), an ongoing initiative to track and forecast the impact of visual networking applications. This document presents the details of the Cisco VNI global IP traffic forecast and the methodology behind it. For a more analytical look at the implications of the data presented in this paper, please refer to the companion document, The Zettabyte EraTrends and Analysis, or the VNI Forecast Highlights tool.
Executive Summary
Annual global IP traffic will surpass the zettabyte threshold (1.4 zettabytes) by the end of 2017. In 2017, global IP traffic will reach 1.4 zettabytes per year, or 120.6 exabytes per month. Global IP traffic will reach 1.0 zettabytes per year or 83.8 exabytes per month in 2015. Global IP traffic has increased more than fourfold in the past 5 years, and will increase threefold over the next 5 years. Overall, IP traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23 percent from 2012 to 2017. Busy hour Internet traffic is growing more rapidly than average Internet traffic. Busy hour Internet traffic increased 41 percent in 2012, compared to 34 percent growth in average traffic. Busy-hour Internet traffic will increase by a factor of 3.5 between 2012 and 2017, while average Internet traffic will increase 2.9-fold. Busy-hour Internet traffic will reach 865 Tbps in 2017, the equivalent of 720 million people streaming a high-definition video continuously.

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Metro traffic will surpass long-haul traffic in 2014, and will account for 58 percent of total IP traffic by 2017. Metro traffic will grow nearly twice as fast as long-haul traffic from 2012 to 2017. The higher growth in metro networks is due in part to the increasingly significant role of content delivery networks, which bypass long-haul links and deliver traffic to metro and regional backbones. Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) will carry over half of Internet traffic in 2017. 51 percent of all Internet traffic will cross content delivery networks in 2017 globally, up from 34 percent in 2012. Nearly half of all IP traffic will originate with non-PC devices by 2017. In 2012, only 26 percent of consumer IP traffic originated with non-PC devices, but by 2017 the non-PC share of consumer IP traffic will grow to 49 percent. PC-originated traffic will grow at a CAGR of 14 percent, while TVs, tablets, mobile phones, and machine-to-machine (M2M) modules will have traffic growth rates of 24 percent, 104 percent, 79 percent, and 82 percent, respectively. Traffic from wireless and mobile devices will exceed traffic from wired devices by 2016. By 2017, wired devices will account for 45 percent of IP traffic, while Wi-Fi and mobile devices will account for 55 percent of IP traffic. In 2012, wired devices accounted for the majority of IP traffic at 59 percent. In 2017, the gigabyte equivalent of all movies ever made will cross global IP networks every 3 minutes. Global IP networks will deliver 13.8 petabytes every 5 minutes in 2017. The number of devices connected to IP networks will be nearly three times as high as the global population in 2017. There will be nearly three networked devices per capita in 2017, up from nearly two networked devices per capita in 2012. Accelerated in part by the increase in devices and the capabilities of those devices, IP traffic per capita will reach 16 gigabytes per capita in 2017, up from 6 gigabytes per capita in 2012.

Video Highlights
It would take an individual over 5 million years to watch the amount of video that will cross global IP networks each month in 2017. Every second, nearly a million minutes of video content will cross the network in 2017. Globally, consumer Internet video traffic will be 69 percent of all consumer Internet traffic in 2017, up from 57 percent in 2012. This percentage does not include video exchanged through peer-to-peer (P2P) file sharing. The sum of all forms of video (TV, video on demand [VoD], Internet, and P2P) will be in the range of 80 to 90 percent of global consumer traffic by 2017. Internet video to TV doubled in 2012. Internet video to TV will continue to grow at a rapid pace, increasing fivefold by 2017. Internet video to TV traffic will be 14 percent of consumer Internet video traffic in 2017, up from 9 percent in 2012. Video-on-demand traffic will nearly triple by 2017. The amount of VoD traffic in 2017 will be equivalent to 6 billion DVDs per month. Content Delivery Network (CDN) traffic will deliver almost two-thirds of all video traffic by 2017. By 2017, 65 percent of all Internet video traffic will cross content delivery networks in 2017, up from 53 percent in 2012.

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Mobile Highlights
Globally, mobile data traffic will increase 13-fold between 2012 and 2017. Mobile data traffic will grow at a CAGR of 66 percent between 2012 and 2017, reaching 11.2 exabytes per month by 2017. Global mobile data traffic will grow three times faster than fixed IP traffic from 2012 to 2017. Global mobile data traffic was 2 percent of total IP traffic in 2012, and will be 9 percent of total IP traffic in 2017.

Regional Highlights
IP traffic is growing fastest in the Middle East and Africa, followed by Asia Pacific. Traffic in the Middle East and Africa will grow at a CAGR of 38 percent between 2012 and 2017. IP traffic in North America will reach 40.7 exabytes per month by 2017, at a CAGR of 23 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in North America will generate 7 billion DVDs worth of traffic, or 26.3 exabytes per month. IP traffic in Western Europe will reach 16.8 exabytes per month by 2017, at a CAGR of 17 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Western Europe will generate 3 billion DVDs worth of traffic, or 13.6 exabytes per month. IP traffic in Asia Pacific will reach 43.4 exabytes per month by 2017, at a CAGR of 26 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Asia Pacific will generate 9 billion DVDs worth of traffic, or 35.8 exabytes per month. IP traffic in Latin America will reach 7.4 exabytes per month by 2017, at a CAGR of 17 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Latin America will generate 2 billion DVDs worth of traffic, or 6.7 exabytes per month. IP traffic in Central and Eastern Europe will reach 8.8 exabytes per month by 2017, at a CAGR of 21 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Central and Eastern Europe will generate 2 billion DVDs worth of traffic, or 7.4 exabytes per month. IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will reach 3.5 exabytes per month by 2017, at a CAGR of 38 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in the Middle East and Africa will generate 789 million DVDs worth of traffic, or 3.2 exabytes per month.

Global Business Highlights


Business IP traffic will grow at a CAGR of 21 percent from 2012 to 2017. Increased adoption of advanced video communications in the enterprise segment will cause business IP traffic to grow by a factor of three between 2012 and 2017. Business Internet traffic will grow at a faster pace than IP WAN. IP WAN will grow at a CAGR of 13 percent, compared to a CAGR of 21 percent for fixed business Internet and 59 percent for mobile business Internet. Business IP traffic will grow fastest in the Middle East and Africa. Business IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will grow at a CAGR of 29 percent, a faster pace than the global average of 21 percent. In volume, Asia Pacific will have the largest amount of business IP traffic in 2017 at 8.3 exabytes per month. North America will be the second at 5.4 exabytes per month.

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Overview of VNI Methodology


The Cisco Visual Networking Index Forecast methodology rests on a combination of analyst projections, in-house estimates and forecasts, and direct data collection. The analyst projections for broadband connections, video subscribers, mobile connections, and Internet application adoption come from SNL Kagan, Ovum, Informa Telecoms & Media, Infonetics, IDC, Gartner, AMI, Arbitron Mobile, Ookla Speedtest.net, Strategy Analytics, Screen Digest, DellOro Group, Synergy, comScore, Nielsen, and others. Upon this foundation are layered Ciscos own estimates for application adoption, minutes of use, and kilobytes per minute. The adoption, usage, and bitrate assumptions are tied to fundamental enablers such as broadband speed and computing speed. All usage and traffic results are then validated using data shared with Cisco from service providers. Figure 1 shows the forecast methodology.
Figure 1. Cisco VNI Forecast Methodology Incorporates Fundamental Enablers of Adoption and Usage

Following the methodology through each step for a single application category (in this case, Internet video) will illustrate the estimation process.

Step 1: Number of Users


The forecast for Internet video begins with estimations of the number of consumer fixed Internet users. Even such a basic measure as consumer fixed Internet users can be difficult to assess, because few analyst firms segment the number of users by both segment (consumer versus business) and network (mobile versus fixed). This year, the number of consumer fixed Internet users was not taken directly from an analyst source but was estimated from analyst forecasts for consumer broadband connections, data on hotspot users from a variety of government sources, and population forecasts by age segment. The number of Internet video users was collected and estimated from a variety of sources, and the numbers were then reconciled with the estimate of overall Internet users.

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Step 2: Application Adoption


After the number of Internet video users has been established, the number of users for each video subsegment must be estimated. It was assumed that all Internet video users view short-form video in addition to other forms of video they may watch. On average 37 percent of Internet video users watch long-form content (based partially on comScore Video Metrix figures for video sites whose average viewing time is longer than 5 minutes), 23 percent watch some form of live content, 3 percent are ambient video watchers, and 4 percent are Internet personal video recorder (PVR) users. These figures are global averages; regional adoption rates for the application subsegments can vary significantly.

Step 3. Minutes of Use


For each application subsegment, minutes of use (MOU) are estimated. Multiple sources are used to determine MOU: the Cisco VNI Usage data collection program provides a minute-per-subscriber baseline for many applications, the Cisco Connected Life Market Watch survey provides MOU for markets that are not covered by the Usage program, and comScore Video Metrix provides PC-based MOU for online video. Special care is taken to ensure that the total number of Internet video minutes is well within the total number of video minutes (including television broadcast) for each user. For example, if the average individual watches a total of 4 hours of video content per day, the sum of Internet, managed IP, and mobile video hours should be a relatively small portion of the total 4 hours.

Step 4. Bitrates
After MOU have been estimated for each subsegment of video, the next step is to apply kilobytes (KB) per minute. To calculate kilobytes per minute, first the regional and country average broadband speeds are estimated for the years 2012 through 2017. For each application category, a representative bitrate is established, and this representative bitrate grows at approximately the same pace as the broadband speed. For video categories, a 7-percent annual compression gain is applied to the bitrate. Local bitrates are then calculated based on how much the average broadband speed in the country differs from the global average, digital screen size in the country, and the computing power of the average device in the country. Combining these factors yields bitrates that are then applied to the MOU.

Step 5: Rollup
The next step in the methodology is to multiply the bitrates, MOU, and users together to get average petabytes per month.

Step 6: Traffic Migration Assessment


The next step is to reconcile the Internet, managed IP, and mobile segments of the forecast. The portion of mobile data traffic that has migrated from the fixed network is subtracted from the fixed forecast, and the amount of mobile data traffic offloaded onto the fixed network through dual-mode devices and femtocells is added back to the fixed forecast. The sections that follow present quantitative results of the forecast and details of the methodology for each segment and type.

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Global IP Traffic Growth, 20122017


Table 1 shows the top-line forecast. According to this forecast, global IP traffic in 2012 stands at 43.6 exabytes per month and will grow threefold by 2017, to reach 120.6 exabytes per month. Consumer IP traffic will reach 98.9 exabytes per month and business IP traffic will surpass 21.7 exabytes per month.
Table 1. Global IP Traffic, 20122017

IP Traffic, 20122017 2012 By Type (PB per Month) Fixed Internet Managed IP Mobile data By Segment (PB per Month) Consumer Business By Geography (PB per Month) Asia Pacific North America Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe Latin America Middle East and Africa Total (PB per Month) Total IP traffic Source: Cisco VNI, 2013 43,570 55,553 68,892 83,835 101,055 120,643 23% 13,906 14,439 7,722 3,405 3,397 701 18,121 18,788 9,072 4,202 4,321 1,049 22,953 23,520 10,568 5,167 5,201 1,483 28,667 28,667 12,241 6,274 5,975 2,013 35,417 34,457 14,323 7,517 6,682 2,659 43,445 40,672 16,802 8,844 7,415 3,465 26% 23% 17% 21% 17% 38% 35,047 8,522 45,023 10,530 56,070 12,822 68,418 15,417 82,683 18,372 98,919 21,724 23% 21% 31,339 11,346 885 39,295 14,679 1,578 47,987 18,107 2,798 57,609 21,523 4,704 68,878 24,740 7,437 81,818 27,668 11,157 21% 20% 66% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 CAGR 20122017

Definitions

Consumer: Includes fixed IP traffic generated by households, university populations, and Internet cafs Business: Includes fixed IP WAN or Internet traffic generated by businesses and governments Mobile: Includes mobile data and Internet traffic generated by handsets, notebook cards, and mobile broadband gateways

Internet: Denotes all IP traffic that crosses an Internet backbone Managed IP: Includes corporate IP WAN traffic and IP transport of TV and VoD

The following tables show cross-tabulations of end-user segment and network type for the final year of the forecast period (2017). Consumer Internet remains the primary generator of IP traffic, but mobile data has the highest growth rate and begins to generate significant traffic by 2017 (Table 2).

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Table 2.

Exabytes per Month as of Year End 2017


Consumer Business 15.0 4.7 2.0 21.7 Total 81.8 27.7 11.2 120.7

Internet Managed IP Mobile data Total Source: Cisco VNI, 2013

66.8 22.9 9.1 98.8

Table 3 shows the same data as Table 2, but in terms of annual traffic run rates. These run rates are based on the monthly traffic at the end of 2017.
Table 3. Exabytes per Year as of Year End 2017
Consumer Internet Managed IP Mobile data Total Source: Cisco VNI, 2013 802.1 275.4 109.6 1,187.1 Business 179.7 56.7 24.3 260.7 Total 981.8 332.0 133.9 1,447.7

Consumer and business traffic are both dominated by Internet traffic, although business traffic is more evenly distributed across public Internet and managed IP (Table 4).
Table 4. Traffic Share by End-User Segment as of Year End 2017
Consumer Internet Managed IP Mobile data Total Source: Cisco VNI, 2013 68% 23% 9% 100% Business 69% 22% 9% 100%

Consumer traffic accounts for the majority of IP traffic in every network type segment. Consumer traffic will be 91 percent of all Internet traffic, 77 percent of all mobile data traffic, and 80 percent of managed IP traffic (Table 5).
Table 5. Traffic Share by Network Type as of Year End 2017
Consumer Internet Managed IP Mobile data Source: Cisco VNI, 2013 82% 83% 82% Business 18% 17% 18% Total 100% 100% 100%

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Consumer Internet traffic will represent two-thirds of all IP traffic, followed by consumer managed IP (VoD), which represents 13 percent of traffic (Table 6).
Table 6. Overall Traffic Share as of Year End 2017
Consumer Internet Managed IP Mobile data Total Source: Cisco VNI, 2013 55% 19% 8% 82% Business 12% 4% 2% 18% Total 68% 23% 9% 100%

Metro and Long Haul Traffic, 20122017


Metro-only traffic (traffic that traverses only the metro and bypasses long-haul traffic links) will surpass long-haul traffic in 2014, and will account for 58% of total IP traffic by 2017. Metro-only traffic will grow nearly twice as fast as long-haul traffic from 2012 to 2017 (Table 7).
Table 7. Metro and Long-Haul Traffic, 20122017

Metro and Long-Haul Traffic, 20122017 2012 Metro-Only (PB per Month) North America Asia Pacific Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe Latin America Middle East and Africa Long-Haul (PB per Month) Asia Pacific Central and Eastern Europe Latin America North America Western Europe Middle East and Africa Total (PB per Month) Total IP traffic Source: Cisco VNI, 2013 43,570 55,553 68,892 83,835 101,055 120,643 23% 9,513 2,802 2,826 4,251 3,862 617 12,164 3,360 3,560 4,991 4,230 928 14,988 3,982 4,218 5,326 4,437 1,317 18,044 4,583 4,695 5,628 4,647 1,787 21,535 5,207 5,099 5,725 4,880 2,362 25,664 5,804 5,492 5,447 5,088 3,077 22% 16% 14% 5% 6% 38% 10,188 4,392 3,860 603 571 84 13,797 5,956 4,842 842 761 121 18,193 7,965 6,131 1,185 983 166 23,038 10,623 7,594 1,691 1,280 225 28,732 13,882 9,443 2,310 1,582 297 35,225 17,781 11,714 3,040 1,922 387 28% 32% 25% 38% 27% 36% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 CAGR 20122017

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Content Delivery Network Traffic, 20122017


With the emergence of popular video-streaming services that deliver Internet video to the TV and other device endpoints, CDNs have prevailed as a dominant method to deliver such content. Globally, 51% of all Internet traffic will cross content delivery networks in 2017, up from 34% in 2012. Globally, 65 percent of all Internet video traffic will cross content delivery networks in 2017, up from 53 percent in 2012 (Table 8).
Table 8. Global Content Delivery Network Internet Traffic, 20122017

CDN Traffic, 20122017 2012 By Geography (PB per Month) North America Asia Pacific Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe Latin America Middle East and Africa Total (PB per Month) CDN Internet traffic Source: Cisco VNI, 2013 10,863 14,633 19,984 26,842 35,834 47,124 34% 4,630 2,468 2,792 437 465 71 6,484 3,347 3,517 586 597 103 9,127 4,617 4,542 809 747 142 12,349 6,444 5,723 1,163 967 197 16,581 8,876 7,298 1,611 1,204 265 21,766 12,065 9,323 2,150 1,470 351 36% 37% 27% 38% 26% 38% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 CAGR 20122017

Consumer IP Traffic, 20122017


As shown in Table 9, global consumer IP traffic is expected to reach 98.9 exabytes per month in 2017. Most of todays consumer IP traffic is Internet traffic.
Table 9. Global Consumer IP Traffic, 20122017

Consumer IP Traffic, 20122017 2012 By Type (PB per Month) Internet Managed IP Mobile data By Geography (PB per Month) North America Asia Pacific Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe Latin America Middle East and Africa Total (PB per Month) Consumer IP traffic Source: Cisco VNI, 2013 35,047 45,023 56,070 68,418 82,683 98,919 23% 12,392 10,957 6,153 2,360 2,763 423 16,237 14,363 7,204 3,013 3,547 658 20,378 18,236 8,394 3,809 4,285 968 24,876 22,887 9,681 4,710 4,902 1,362 29,891 28,465 11,342 5,714 5,423 1,848 35,223 35,156 13,344 6,787 5,939 2,469 23% 26% 17% 24% 17% 42% 25,529 8,835 684 32,097 11,686 1,239 39,206 14,640 2,223 47,035 17,609 3,774 56,243 20,414 6,026 66,842 22,946 9,131 21% 21% 68% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 CAGR 20122017

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Consumer Internet Traffic, 20122017


This category encompasses any IP traffic that crosses the Internet and is not confined to a single service providers network. Internet video streaming and downloads are beginning to take a larger share of bandwidth and will grow to more than 69 percent of all consumer Internet traffic in 2017 (Table 10).
Table 10. Global Consumer Internet Traffic, 20122017

Consumer Internet Traffic, 20122017 2012 By Network (PB per Month) Fixed Mobile By Subsegment (PB per Month) Internet video Web, email, and data File sharing Online gaming By Geography (PB per Month) Asia Pacific North America Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe Latin America Middle East and Africa Total (PB per Month) Consumer Internet traffic Source: Cisco VNI, 2013 26,213 33,337 41,429 50,809 62,269 75,973 24% 9,033 6,834 5,086 2,194 2,656 410 11,754 8,924 5,880 2,757 3,382 640 14,887 11,312 6,804 3,433 4,049 944 18,707 14,188 7,810 4,182 4,588 1,334 23,458 17,740 9,197 5,015 5,045 1,816 29,440 21,764 10,953 5,897 5,487 2,432 27% 26% 17% 22% 16% 43% 14,818 5,173 6,201 22 19,855 6,336 7,119 26 25,800 7,781 7,816 32 32,962 9,542 8,266 39 41,916 11,828 8,478 48 52,752 14,494 8,667 59 29% 23% 7% 22% 25,529 684 32,097 1,239 39,206 2,223 47,035 3,774 56,243 6,026 66,842 9,131 21% 68% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 CAGR 20122017

Definitions

Web, email, and data: Includes web, email, instant messaging, and other data traffic (excludes file sharing)

File sharing: Includes peer-to-peer traffic from all recognized P2P systems such as BitTorrent and eDonkey, as well as traffic from web-based file-sharing systems

Gaming: Includes casual online gaming, networked console gaming, and multiplayer virtual-world gaming Internet video: Includes short-form Internet video (for example, YouTube), long-form Internet video (for example, Hulu), live Internet video, Internet-video-to-TV (for example, Netflix through Roku), online video purchases and rentals, webcam viewing, and web-based video monitoring (excludes P2P video file downloads)

Web, Email, and Data


This general category encompasses web browsing, email, instant messaging, data (which includes file transfer using HTTP and FTP) and other Internet applications (Table 11). Note that data may include the download of video files that are not captured by the Internet video to PC forecast. This category includes traffic generated by all individual Internet users. An Internet user is here defined as someone who accesses the Internet through a desktop or laptop computer at home, school, Internet caf, or other location outside the context of a business.
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Table 11.

Global Consumer Web, Email, and Data Traffic, 20122017

Consumer Web, Email, and Data Traffic, 20122017 2012 By Network (PB per Month) Fixed web and data Mobile web and data By Geography (PB per Month) Asia Pacific North America Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe Middle East and Africa Latin America Total (PB per Month) Consumer web, email, and data Source: Cisco VNI, 2013 5,173 6,336 7,781 9,542 11,828 14,494 23% 1,711 1,452 1,144 299 84 483 2,231 1,882 1,224 323 138 538 2,925 2,387 1,330 359 217 562 3,798 2,995 1,456 415 321 556 4,898 3,715 1,652 554 446 562 6,261 4,534 1,883 654 586 575 30% 26% 10% 17% 48% 4% 4,851 321 5,762 574 6,782 999 7,921 1,621 9,366 2,462 10,960 3,534 18% 62% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 CAGR 20122017

File Sharing
This category includes traffic from P2P applications such as BitTorrent and eDonkey, as well as web-based file sharing. Note that a large portion of P2P traffic is due to the exchange of video files, so a total view of the impact of video on the network should count P2P video traffic in addition to the traffic counted in the Internet video to PC and Internet video to TV categories. Table 12 shows the forecast for consumer P2P traffic from 2012 to 2017. Note that the P2P category is limited to traditional file exchange and does not include commercial video-streaming applications that are delivered through P2P, such as PPStream or PPLive.
Table 12. Global Consumer File-Sharing Traffic, 20122017

Consumer File Sharing, 20112016 2012 By Network (PB per Month) Fixed Mobile By Subsegment (PB per Month) P2P file transfer Other file transfer By Geography (PB per Month) Asia Pacific Central and Eastern Europe North America Western Europe Latin America Middle East and Africa Total (PB per Month) Consumer file sharing Source: Cisco VNI, 2013 6,201 7,119 7,816 8,266 8,478 8,667 7% 2,358 911 829 1,350 666 88 2,801 1,079 982 1,367 782 108 3,156 1,242 1,090 1,360 850 118 3,440 1,374 1,173 1,305 862 112 3,655 1,427 1,244 1,255 807 89 3,857 1,494 1,302 1,235 725 53 10% 10% 9% -2% 2% -10% 5,374,262 826,343 5,981,677 1,137,158 6,330,010 1,486,266 6,404,161 1,861,915 6,199,877 2,277,919 5,893,411 2,773,901 2% 27% 6,155 45 7,060 59 7,738 78 8,159 107 8,343 135 8,506 161 7% 29% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 CAGR 20122017

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Internet Video
With the exception of the Internet video to TV subcategory, all of the Internet video subcategories consist of online video that is downloaded or streamed for viewing on a PC screen (Table 13). Internet video to TV is Internet delivery of video to a TV screen through a set-top box (STB) or equivalent device. Much of the video streamed or downloaded through the Internet consists of free clips, episodes, and other content offered by traditional content producers such as movie studios and television networks.
Table 13. Global Consumer Internet Video, 20122017

Consumer Internet Video 20122017 2012 By Network (PB per Month) Fixed Mobile By Category (PB per Month) Video Internet video to TV By Geography (PB per Month) Asia Pacific North America Western Europe Latin America Central and Eastern Europe Middle East and Africa Total (PB per Month) Consumer Internet video Source: Cisco VNI, 2013 14,818 19,855 25,800 32,962 41,916 52,752 29% 4,960 4,545 2,584 1,507 984 238 6,716 6,049 3,280 2,062 1,355 393 8,800 7,822 4,103 2,634 1,832 609 11,460 10,004 5,036 3,169 2,392 901 14,894 12,761 6,273 3,674 3,034 1,280 19,309 15,905 7,813 4,184 3,749 1,793 31% 28% 25% 23% 31% 50% 13,483 1,335 17,850 2,005 22,950 2,851 29,050 3,913 36,742 5,174 46,237 6,515 28% 37% 10,230 193 16,430 450 19,980 924 24,994 1,729 31,722 3,033 40,532 4,749 32% 90% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 CAGR 20122017

Definitions

Internet video to TV: Video delivered through the Internet to a TV screen by way of an Internet-enabled set-top box (for example, Roku) or equivalent device (for example, Microsoft Xbox 360), Internet-enabled TV, or PC-to-TV connection

Video: Video comprises the following underlying categories:


Short form: User-generated video and other video clips generally less than 7 minutes in length Video calling: Video messages or calling delivered on fixed Internet initiated by smartphones, non-smartphones, and tablets

Long form: Video content generally greater than 7 minutes in length Live Internet TV: Peer-to-peer TV (excluding P2P video downloads) and live television streaming over the Internet

Internet PVR: Recording of live TV content for later viewing Ambient video: Nannycams, petcams, home security cams, and other persistent video streams Mobile video: All video that travels over a second-generation (2G), 3G, or 4G network

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Consumer Managed IP Traffic, 20122017


Managed IP video is IP traffic generated by traditional commercial TV services (Table 14). This traffic remains within the footprint of a single service provider, so it is not considered Internet traffic. (For Internet video delivered to the set-top box, see Internet video to TV in the previous section.)
Table 14. Global Consumer Managed IP Traffic, 20122017

Consumer Managed IP Traffic, 20112016 2012 By Network (PB per Month) Fixed By Geography (PB per Month) North America Western Europe Asia Pacific Latin America Central and Eastern Europe Middle East and Africa Total (PB per Month) Managed IP video traffic Source: Cisco VNI, 2013 8,835 11,686 14,640 17,609 20,414 22,946 21% 5,558 1,068 1,924 106 165 13 7,313 1,324 2,609 165 257 18 9,066 1,590 3,348 237 376 24 10,689 1,871 4,180 313 528 28 12,151 2,145 5,006 379 699 33 13,459 2,392 5,717 452 890 37 19% 18% 24% 34% 40% 23% 8,835 11,686 14,640 17,609 20,414 22,946 21% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 CAGR 20122017

Business IP Traffic
The enterprise forecast is based on the number of network-connected computers worldwide. In our experience, this basis provides the most accurate measure of enterprise data usage. An average business user might generate 4 GB per month of Internet and WAN traffic. A large-enterprise user would generate significantly more traffic, 810 GB per month (Table 15).
Table 15. Business IP Traffic, 20122017

Business IP Traffic, 20122017 2012 By Network Type (PB per Month) Business Internet traffic Business managed IP traffic Business mobile data By Geography (PB per Month) Asia Pacific North America Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe Latin America Middle East and Africa Total (PB per Month) Business IP traffic Source: Cisco VNI, 2013 8,522 10,530 12,822 15,417 18,372 21,724 21% 2,949 2,047 1,568 1,045 635 278 3,758 2,551 1,868 1,189 774 391 4,718 3,141 2,174 1,358 916 516 5,780 3,790 2,559 1,564 1,073 651 6,952 4,566 2,981 1,803 1,258 811 8,289 5,449 3,458 2,057 1,476 995 23% 22% 17% 14% 18% 29% 5,809 2,512 201 7,198 2,993 339 8,781 3,466 575 10,573 3,914 930 12,635 4,326 1,411 14,976 4,722 2,026 21% 13% 59% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 CAGR 20122017

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Definitions

Business Internet traffic: All business traffic that crosses the public Internet Business managed IP traffic: All business traffic that is transported over IP but remains within the corporate WAN

Business mobile data traffic: All business traffic that crosses a mobile access point

Mobile Data Traffic


Mobile data traffic includes handset-based data traffic, such as text messaging, multimedia messaging, and handset video services (Table 16). Mobile Internet traffic is generated by wireless cards for portable computers and handset-based mobile Internet usage.
Table 16. Mobile Data and Internet Traffic, 20122017

Mobile Data and Internet Traffic, 20122017 2012 By Geography (PB per Month) Asia Pacific North America Western Europe Middle East and Africa Central and Eastern Europe Latin America Total (PB per Month) Mobile data and Internet Source: Cisco VNI, 2013 885 1,578 2,798 4,704 7,437 11,157 66% 310 222 181 50 66 55 614 380 276 96 116 97 1,168 632 426 182 211 179 2,053 993 655 333 365 304 3,377 1,466 976 559 577 481 5,257 2,087 1,384 861 845 723 76% 56% 50% 77% 66% 67% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 CAGR 20122017

For More Information


For more information, refer to the companion document The Zettabyte EraTrends and Analysis. Inquiries can be directed to traffic-inquiries@cisco.com.

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