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August 8, 2013
NMDC
Performance Highlights
Quarterly highlights (Standalone)
Particulars (` cr) Net sales EBITDA % margin Adj. PAT 1QFY14 2,871 1,971 68.7 1,638 1QFY13 2,840 2,302 81.0 1,906 % chg (yoy) 1.1 (14.4) (1238)bp (14.1) 4QFY13 3,204 2,156 67.3 1,871 % chg (qoq) (10.4) (8.6) 139bp (12.4)
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Mining 39,627 (20,512) 1.1 201/93 412,981 1 18,665 5,519 NMDC.BO NMDC@IN
`100 `123
12 months
NMDC reported better than expected 1QFY2014 results both on top-line and profitability front due to better-than-expected realizations. We maintain
Buy on the stock due to its inexpensive valuations. Robust operational performance: NMDCs net sales increased by 1.1% yoy to
`2,871cr (above our estimates of `2,695cr) mainly due to higher volumes which increased 6.8% yoy to 7.3mn tonne, although the same was partially offset by lower realizations. Iron ore realization decreased 5.6% yoy to `3,904/tonne, but it was above our estimate. EBITDA/tonne slumps on lower realizations: The EBITDA/tonne decreased by 19.8% yoy to `2,715 due to lower realizations. The companys depreciation expenses grew by 10.9% yoy to `36cr and there was an exceptional item of `66cr relating to penalty and contribution towards the Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) created for Karnataka illegal mining cases. Excluding this exceptional item, the adjusted net profit decreased by 14.1% yoy to `1,638cr (above our estimate of `1,540cr).
Outlook and valuation: NMDCs stock price has corrected sharply over the past one year. Nevertheless, a strong balance sheet, presence in sellers market (iron ore), low cost of production, high-grade mines, long mine life and high dividend yield (7.0% at CMP) make NMDC an attractive bet at the current levels. Valuing the stock at 3.5x FY2015E EV/EBITDA, we derive a fair price of `123 and recommend Buy on the stock. Key financials (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg FDEPS (`) OPM (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY2012 11,261 (1.0) 7,266 11.8 18.3 79.3 5.5 1.6 33.3 40.1 1.7 2.1 FY2013E 10,704 (4.9) 6,342 (12.7) 16.0 68.9 6.2 1.4 24.4 27.7 1.6 2.4 FY2014E 10,718 0.1 6,136 (3.2) 15.5 66.6 6.5 1.3 21.2 24.1 1.6 2.4 FY2015E 11,514 7.4 6,383 4.0 16.1 64.5 6.2 1.2 20.0 22.7 1.5 2.3
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 80.0 11.5 4.9 3.7
3m (6.2)
1yr 6.0
(23.0) (45.4)
Bhavesh Chauhan
Tel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6821 bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com
Vinay Rachh
Tel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6841 vinay.rachh@angelbroking.com
1QFY14 2,871 28 1.0 62 2.2 148 5.2 661 23.0 899 31.3 1,971 68.7 1,971 68.7 36 521 (66.0) 2,390 83.2 818 34.2 1,638
1QFY13 2,840 (5) (0.2) 54 1.9 135 4.8 354 12.5 538 19.0 2,302 81.0 2,302 81.0 33 552 2,821 99.3 915 32.4 1,906
4QFY13 3,204 (65) (2.0) 100 3.1 161 5.0 852 26.6 1,048 32.7 2,156 67.3 -
FY2013 10,704 184 1.7 289 2.7 580 5.4 871 8.1 3,326 31.1 7,378 68.9 -
FY2012 11,261 23 0.2 257 2.3 529 4.7 406 3.6 2,336 20.7 8,925 79.3 8,925 79.3 12 130 2,016 10,811 96.0 3,494 32.3 7,266
August 8, 2013
Result highlights
Volumes jump 6.8% yoy
NMDCs net sales increased by 1.1% yoy to `2,871cr (above our estimate of `2,695cr) mainly due to higher volumes which increased 6.8% yoy to 7.3mn tonne. However, its realizations decreased 5.6% yoy to `3,904/tonne. Exhibit 3: Sales volume increases 6.8% yoy
9 8 7 7.6 6.9 6.4 6.5 6.8 5.9 5.3 8.2 7.3 60 50 40
(mn tonnes)
(`/tonne)
30
(%)
1QFY13
1QFY14
Average realization
(` cr)
1,500 1,000 500 0 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 Net revenue (LHS) yoy change (RHS)
August 8, 2013
(%)
2,000
0.0
(%)
20
4,100
( ` /tonne)
( ` cr)
(%)
1,500 1,000 500 0 1QFY12 3QFY12 EBITDA (LHS) 1QFY13 3QFY13 1QFY14 EBITDA margin (RHS)
40 30 20 10 0
income declined by 5.7% yoy to `521cr and tax rate was also higher at 34.2% in 1QFY2014 compared to 32.4% in 1QFY2013. Consequently, the adjusted net profit decreased by 14.1% yoy to `1,638cr (above our estimate of `1,540cr). Exhibit 8: Net margin stood at 57.1%
2,500 64.7 2,000 1,500 64.1 65.9 67.1 65.3 64.3 63.1 58.4 57.1 68 66 64 62 60 1,000 500 0 1QFY12 3QFY12 Net profit (LHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
(` cr)
August 8, 2013
(%)
50
Investment rationale
Steady production volume growth during FY2013-15
NMDC aims to ramp up its production capacity to 48mn tonne by FY2015E (current capacity 32mn tonne) through increased exploration of its existing mines and development of new mines, ie Bailadila 11/B, Kumaraswamy and Deposit 10 & 11/A. However, given the anticipated low steel demand, we forecast iron ore sales volumes to increase to 30mn tonne by FY2015. We expect sales volumes to grow by 6.9% and 7.1% yoy in FY2014 and FY2015, respectively.
7 7 32
48
40 30 20 10 0 Current
Total
August 8, 2013
FY2015E
30 3,569
28 3,519
Angel forecast
15.5 16.1
Variation (%)
1.2 (0.6)
(` cr)
Dec-10 5x
Aug-11 8x
Apr-12 11x
Dec-12 17x
Aug-13 14x
August 8, 2013
(`)
Dec-10 9x
Aug-11 14x
Apr-12 19x
Dec-12 24x
Aug-13
(`)
400 300 200 100 0 Apr-10 Dec-10 2.0x Aug-11 4.0x Apr-12 6.0x Dec-12 8.0x Aug-13
25 23 33
Buy Buy
- Neutral 165,962
Company background
Incorporated in November 1958, government-owned NMDC is Indias largest iron ore producer with a capacity of 32mn tonne. The company operates high-grade iron ore mines at Kirandul and Bacheli in Chhattisgarh and Donimalai in Karnataka. The average mine life of NMDC is 38 years currently.
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Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio (%) Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) (0.9) (2.9) (0.9) (2.0) (0.8) (2.3) (0.8) (3.0) (0.7) (3.2) (0.7) (3.1) 3.6 60 43 91 27 5.6 48 15 62 3 4.8 68 20 68 15 3.7 65 20 68 27 2.9 60 20 68 25 2.8 50 20 68 21 33.4 347.9 26.6 50.6 744.9 38.8 40.1 444.2 33.3 27.7 246.6 24.4 24.1 200.7 21.2 22.7 192.9 20.0 69.7 66.2 3.8 174.0 75.0 66.8 6.7 333.3 78.1 67.7 3.7 197.7 67.6 67.0 2.2 101.8 65.3 67.0 1.6 69.4 63.2 67.0 1.2 51.4 8.7 8.7 8.9 1.8 36.0 16.4 16.4 16.7 3.3 48.5 18.3 18.3 18.7 4.5 61.6 16.0 16.0 16.3 7.0 69.4 15.5 15.5 15.8 7.0 76.7 16.1 16.1 16.5 7.0 84.6 11.5 11.2 2.8 1.8 4.3 6.0 1.9 6.1 6.0 2.1 3.3 2.0 2.6 1.2 5.5 5.4 1.6 4.5 1.7 2.1 0.8 6.2 6.1 1.4 7.0 1.6 2.4 0.6 6.5 6.3 1.3 7.0 1.6 2.4 0.6 6.2 6.1 1.2 7.0 1.5 2.3 0.5 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E
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E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Pvt. Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
NMDC No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
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