Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Risk
Expenditure
Asset Management and Cost Saving Maintenance Strategy based on Risk-Informed Decision Making
.
TV Sddeutschland Bau und Betrieb GmbH Cost effective, reliable, and safe through TV gAte and ROI
Costs must be decreased Increasing responsibility Adapted availability needed Increased flexibility needed Worldwide competition ...........
SOMEHOW RISK-INFORMED
Knowledge Based
Understanding of RISK
SDDEUTSCHLAND
PoF
CoF
SHE-related Costs-related
TV Sddeutschland Bau und Betrieb GmbH
ASME Risk Based Inspection Vol. 1 General Document Vol. 3 Fossil Fuel Fired Electric Power Generating Systems EPRI Risk Based In-Service Inspection Evaluation Procedure WOG Application of Risk Based Methods for Piping In-Service Inspection API (American Petroleum Institute) API 579 Fitness for Service API RP 580 Risk Based Inspection (qualitative) API RP 581 Risk Based Inspection (qualitative/quantitative)
Risk TV Based In-Service Inspection and Maintenance Procedures for European Industries Sddeutschland Bau und Betrieb GmbH
4
Inspection Reports Operating Window Medium / Hazards Damage/Deterioration Mechanism SDDEUTSCHLAND Reliability Data ....
Data Mining
Expert Panel
Ranking
Risk-Matrix
Regulatory Requirements
ISI/IST Scope, Locations, Method, and Frequency Monitoring Design modifications Spare Parts Operation ....
Optimization
Realization
Nr 1 2 3 7 8 13 17 23 27 31 35 40 44 45
fte
2. Hlfte 1. Hlfte 2. Hlfte 1. Hlfte 2. Hlfte 1. Hlfte 1011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Kauer
Schmitt,Schrder,S
Projektteam
Information / Kontro TP2: Vernetzung / E TP3: Datenbasis Information / Kontro TP4: Mitarbeiter TP5: Vermarktung Information / Kontro Abschluss Projektnachlauf
12/23
Representation of the contribution to risk of the subcomponents of the component 01P002: PoFi * CoFi
TV Sddeutschland Bau und Betrieb GmbH
6
Risk-informed decision making using the risk matrix as central element for the long term strategy and day to day work planning
Economic Risk Ranking Diagram
5
Probability of Failure (PoF)
2 11 15 86 82
2 6
2 4 5 6 8
15 19 31 31
I17 I
18 17
II I2
1 0 2
I: Run to Failure Corrective Maintenance Aim at zero expenditure II: ALARP As Low as Reasonably Practicable via Periodical and Condition Based Maintenance corresponding to risk Principle of expenditure minimization III: Unacceptable Urgent measures like Change of Design, and/or Operation, Repair etc. Principle of Risk Mitigation
7
Explicit measures are planned on the basis of the risk identified the information regarding risk driving components, subcomponents and damage/deterioration mechanisms the information regarding acting damage/deterioration mechanisms, remnant life and the confidence level achieved, through which adapted and adequate measures can be selected the overall confidence level by considering resources, spare part situation, .....
TV Sddeutschland Bau und Betrieb GmbH
8
Detailed Planning
SDDEUTSCHLAND
predictable f(t)
non-predictable
Monitoring possible?
Condition Monitoring
Influence Monitoring
Determine Interval, Method, Scope, and Place f (Risk, Remnant Useful Life, Confidence)
Not possible
Determine Interval, Method, Scope, and Place f (Risk, Confidence) Confidence Assessment
Confidence Assessment
Reduction of PoF
TV Sddeutschland Bau und Betrieb GmbH
Reduction of Pof
Discussion with the authority regarding the general possibility to extend the prescribed interval and about the method going to be used Assessment of 464 Subcomponents Risk Ranking Result: - Extreme High: 0 % - Very High: 7% - High: 20 % - Medium: 33 % - Low: 40 %
Extension more or less no problem for most of the equipment At the end there were 25 pieces of equipment for which it was TV Sddeutschland Bau und Betrieb GmbH simply not possible to extend the interval in the first place
10
For those 25 we developed a detailed procedure how to replace the internal by non-intrusive inspections (formalistic speaking the non-intrusive is replacing the internal inspection) The result was that this is possible for additionally 15 pieces of equipment
Result:
10 pieces of equipment (out of 464) remaining to be internally inspected, repaired, or replaced at the originally scheduled inspection time
Big Shut Down could be postponed TV Sddeutschland Bau und Betrieb GmbH (Savings > 8 Mio EUR)
11
25
water steam cycle
Failures
20 15 10 5 0
gas turbine
air intake
fuel gas
electric power
510
78,75%
79,67%
78,00%
Feedwater system
84,74 % 80,13%
NC F
76,00% 74,00%
Cooling system
Transformers
Concept 1
Concept 2
Concept 3
average Power [ MW ]
12
steam turbine
generator
generator
Main Components
86,00% 84,00%
AF
Pmittel
525
Identification (ranking) of critical systems and components Identification of possible damage / deterioration mechanisms Suitable inspection and maintenance methods Determination of scope, location, and intervals Economic balance Documentation and traceability Adjusted requirements for specifications, quality, certification,... (Risk Oriented Design, Risk Oriented Quality), Insurance Risk, .....
13
Summary
SDDEUTSCHLAND
; Cost Optimization
Appropriate balance between costs and benefits
; Cost Concentration
Prioritizing on relevant and critical systems and components
; Cost Traceability
Systematic decision making on the basis of traceable measures API, ASME, RIMAP, ... national standards
TV Sddeutschland Bau und Betrieb GmbH
14
Risk
; Code Compliance
Expenditure