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Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday| September 3, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update


Tuesday| September 3, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis Indian Rupee depreciated around 3 percent in todays trade. European PPI increased by 0.3 percent in the month of July. UKs Construction PMI rose by 2.1 points to 59.1-mark in August. European equities are trading on a flat note ahead of the US manufacturing data. Asian markets ended on a positive note and US stock futures are trading in the green. Indian Rupee depreciated around 3 percent today on the back of dollar demand from importers. Further, slow economic growth and worries over the CAD led to fears of downgrade to the economy which exert downside pressure on the currency. The Rupee crossed the 68-mark in todays trading session. UKs Construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 2.1 points to 59.1-mark in August as against a rise of 57-level in July. European Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.3 percent in the month of July. Spot gold prices declined around 0.1 percent today on the back of strength in the DX. However, sharp downside in prices was capped due to mixed global market sentiments coupled with recovery in SPDR holdings. In the Indian markets, Rupee depreciation acted as a positive factor for prices on the MCX. Spot silver prices gained around 0.2 percent today. However, sharp upside was capped due to downside in base metals, fall in gold prices and strength in the DX. On the domestic bourses, depreciation in the Rupee pushed prices to the upside. Base metals on the LME are trading on a negative note as Russia was quoted as saying that the US warships has been sent close to Syria leading to increased political tensions. Strength in the DX added further downside pressure. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee led to gains in the prices. Copper declined by 0.5 percent on the LME on account of surging political tensions in Syria due to US warships. Gain in LME copper inventories by as much as 2.2 percent and strength in the DX led to further downfall. Depreciation in the Rupee supported an upside in prices and gained around 1.4 percent and hovered around Rs.502.90/kg till 4:30pm IST. Nymex crude declined around 0.3 percent due to weak global market sentiments and strength in the DX. However, sharp declines were cushioned due to supply concerns arising due to US and Syria military tensions which may begin any time as US has already sent warships towards Syria. MCX crude gained as much as 2.4 percent on account of depreciation in the Rupee.
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Oct13 MCX Gold Oct13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Dec13 MCX Silver Dec13 Crude Oil Nymex Oct 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Sep 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Nov13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Sep13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Sep13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Sep13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Sep13 Unit Open

Performance during the day


Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

as at 4.30 pm 3 September 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5574.70 19002.77 13748.68 1934.24 17038.88

5580.95 19007.31 13978.44 1940.99 17074.53

5323.75 18166.17 13748.68 1928.09 16829.49

5341.45 18234.66 13978.44 1933.74 16829.49

-3.77 -3.45 2.99 0.46 0.11


Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 3 September13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

82.35 1.319 66.29

82.48 1.3197 68.25

82.28 1.3159 66.25

82.385 1.3175 68.08

0.30 -0.11 3.15


Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 3 September13
High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz

1390.99 1393.00 32941.00 24.17 0.232 54890 107.07 114.45 7193 7265.00 494.30 1917.00 128.30 2184 145.50 13776 924.00 1837.75 120.85

1398.56 1396.20 33980.0 24.46 0.24415 56987 107.77 115.74 7390 7285.00 504.80 1918.25 130.00 2184 148.20 13800 942.00 1838.00 123.00

1384.09 1382.30 32940.0 23.95 0.231 54890 104.21 114.06 7160 7192.00 494.00 1899.00 126.90 2155 145.10 13670 920.20 1813.00 120.70

1393.31 1396.20 33780.00 24.18 0.2423 56431 107.29 115.13 7365 7198.00 502.90 1901.00 129.40 2160 147.75 13691 939.40 1815.25 122.80

-0.07 0.01 2.17 0.21 3.27 2.69 -0.33 0.70 2.35 -0.59 1.38 -0.73 1.41 -1.02 0.96 -0.65 1.56 -1.26 0.90

Rs/kg $/bbl

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update


Tuesday| September 3, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, we expect precious metals, base metals and crude oil prices to trade on a mixed note on the back of uncertainty over the military attacks on Syria from US. Further, weak economic data in the evening session will lead to strength in the DX and this factor will exert downside pressure on dollar denominated commodities. Base metals prices will trade lower on account of forecast for decline in manufacturing data from the US. In the Indian markets, Rupee has already depreciated sharply and prices will continue to remain in positive territory.

Technical Outook for evening session 3 September 13 ( CMP as of 4.30 pm)


Commodity Gold Oct'13 Spot Gold Silver Dec13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Sep13 Nymex Crude Oil Oct13 Natural Gas Sep13 LME Copper Copper Nov13 Zinc Sep13 Lead Sep13 Aluminum Sep13 Nickel Sep13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmbtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 Support 1 CMP Resistance1 Resistance 2

33400 1376 57000 23.30 7240 104.9 245 7070 495 127 146 120.6 918

33600 1384 57700 23.85 7300 106.1 248 7160 498 128 147 121.5 929

33865 1393.5 58460 24.15 7372 107.35 252.7 7202 503.7 129.65 147.95 122.75 940.8

33980 1402 59100 24.63 7420 108 255 7280 505.5 130.6 149 123.8 950

34150 1412 59650 25.14 7490 109.2 257 7330 508 132 150 125 962

Important Events for Today


Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y Non-Manufacturing PMI Average Cash Earnings y/y Spanish Unemployment Change Construction PMI ISM Manufacturing PMI

UK China Japan Euro UK US

4:31am 6:30am 7:00am 12:30pm 2:00pm 7:30pm

53.9 0.4% 0.0K 59.1 -

0.8% -5.2K 58.4 54.2

2.2% 54.1 0.6% -64.9K 57.0 55.4

Medium Medium Medium Medium High High

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