SCI/VERKEHR Cologne 2009

THE WORLD MARKET FOR DIESEL LOCOMOTIVES

Vehicle Fleets, Procurements, Manufacturers, Market Development

THE WORLD MARKET FOR DIESEL LOCOMOTIVES Vehicle Fleets, Procurements, Manufacturers, Market Development SCI Verkehr GmbH is an independent consultancy company which specialises in the technology and economics of transport. We have close connections to the rail industry, with consultants in a wide range of specialist fields. We have an extensive network of experts in Germany and abroad, and we specialise in market and strategy aspects for the mobility sector. Our activities focus on companies in the transport and railway industry, logistics, public and private transport companies and transport and economics departments in public administration at federal, regional and community level. Based on the current developments in rail transport, this study, entitled Worldwide Market for Diesel Locomotives, delivers an analysis and sound estimate of the market for diesel locomotives. The study provides a consistent continuation of the study "The Worldwide Market for Diesel Locomotives" which was published in 2006. With this, SCI Verkehr provides market and business information of competitive relevance on current volumes in the worldwide market for new vehicles and after-sales business. In addition, the study presents and evaluates key information about companies, technology and economics. In concrete terms, this market study of diesel locomotives contains: A regionally differentiated look at the worldwide market for diesel locomotives including an intensified analysis of all known markets of the individual countries A comprehensive analysis of the current fleet stocks concerning operational purposes, quantities and age structures as well as future procurement potential Analysis of the current market shares of all manufacturers and customers of diesel locomotives as well as a forecast of the future vehicle requirements An overview of diesel locomotive manufacturers including a brief description of their current range of products and services as well as contact details An overview of the most important drivers behind the procurement and refurbishment of diesel locomotives in the individual regions A condensed presentation of the most important fleet-specific features of diesel locomotives in the form of a diagram A list of operators vehicle stocks and the current diesel locomotive procurements in the annex to the study.

This Multi Client Study is based on numerous information sources, which are continuously analysed, validated and recorded in a database system. The German version of the study is available from March 2009 and the English version from May 2009 at the price of EUR 2 800 + delivery costs and VAT. Your contact Christian Beler Head of Marketing and Sales Tel. +49-221-93178-20 Fax +49-221-93178-78 E-mail: c.bessler@sci.de

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TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Executive Summary: The World Market for Diesel Locomotives ............................... 15 2 Market Delimitation and Methodology of the Study.................................................... 23 2.1 Objective of the Market Analysis.............................................................................. 23 2.2 Delimitation of the Railway Technology Market ...................................................... 24 2.3 Market Analysis Methodology ................................................................................. 30 3 Manufacturers of Diesel Locomotives.......................................................................... 35 3.1 Global Players.......................................................................................................... 35 3.2 Other Manufacturers ................................................................................................ 42 4 The Market for Diesel Locomotives in Western Europe.............................................. 61 4.1 Germany ................................................................................................................. 66 4.2 France ...................................................................................................................... 67 4.3 United Kingdom: ...................................................................................................... 69 4.4 Italy........................................................................................................................... 70 5 The Market for Diesel Locomotives in Eastern Europe............................................... 71 5.1 Poland ...................................................................................................................... 75 5.2 Czech Republic........................................................................................................ 76 5.3 Romania ................................................................................................................... 77 6 The Market for Diesel Locomotives in Asia ................................................................. 79 6.1 China........................................................................................................................ 82 6.2 India ......................................................................................................................... 83 7 The Market for Diesel Locomotives in North America ................................................ 85 8 The Market for Diesel Locomotives in South America ................................................ 91 9 The Market for Diesel Locomotives in the CIS ............................................................ 95 9.1 Russia ...................................................................................................................... 99 9.2 Ukraine....................................................................................................................101 10 The Market for Diesel Locomotives in Africa/the Middle East................................ 103 10.1 South Africa...........................................................................................................107 11 The Market for Diesel Locomotives in Australia/Pacific ......................................... 109 Annex Annex A: Fleet Overview by Region and Country Markets...................................................113 Annex B: Contact Addresses of Manufacturers....................................................................135 Annex C: Diesel Locomotive Stocks of the Railway Companies..........................................141

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The Market for Diesel Locomotives in Australia/Pacific

Vehicle installed base/age structure The railway network in this region is characterised by long overland lines. A low degree of electrification led to a dominance of diesel traction among the locomotives operated, for which nearly exclusively diesel-electric traction is used. Almost 80% of the diesel locomotive fleet is operated in Australia and 20% in New Zealand. The diesel locomotives of the Fiji Islands only form a small part of the total fleet. Around 65% of the operated diesel locomotives are operated in mainline transport and 35% in shunting operation.

Installed Base by Country [Number of Diesel Locomotives]

Australia

New Zealand

Fiji
Figure 1: Installed base overview diesel locomotives Australia/Pacific 2009 (by country)

0
Mainline locos

1 000
Shunting locos

2 000

3 000
SCI Verkehr GmbH

Since 1960, diesel locomotives have constantly been procured in Australia/Pacific. Procurement peak took place in the 1980s followed by a decline in procurements in the 1990s and the beginning of the new millennium. The installed base has an average age of around 25 years and is currently being rejuvenated and extended by numerous procurement projects.
Age Structure of Installed Base [Number of Diesel Locomotives]
750

500

250

0 no info before 1950 19501959 19601969 19701979 19801989 19901999 20002009

SCI Verkehr GmbH

Figure 1: Age structure diesel locomotives in Australia/Pacific 2009

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The market for Diesel Locomotives in Africa/the Middle East

Manufacturers/products/market shares In the last five years, Electro-Motive Diesel sold the most diesel locomotives in the region. A total of 25% of the vehicles were delivered by EMD. A further 20% of the diesel locomotives came from China and were manufactured there by CNR or CSR. Alstom sold a modified version of the diesel-electric PRIMA to Iran. A total of 100 vehicles have been ordered by the Iran state railway. GE Transportation was very successful in the region with the Evolution series, which will be delivered to Egypt.
Delivery by Manufacturer 2005 bis 2009 [Number of Diesel Locomotives] 15% 27% 5% EMD Chinese manufacturer Alstom General Electric Lugansk Teplovoz 15% Other manufacturers In total: ~300 Diesel Locomotives

Figure 1: Market shares diesel locomotives Africa/Middle East in the period 20052009

20% 18%
SCI Verkehr GmbH

Market volume and market development The current market volume for new diesel locomotives in Africa/the Middle East is around EUR 130 million per annum; for after-sales services, around EUR 200 million. This market development is influenced by the following drivers:
Driver Transport demand Brief description An increase of the mining volume in the coal mining region, especially in the leading market of South Africa, will lead to an increased demand for traction in the long term. For this purpose mainly mainline locomotives will be needed. Funds for operation and vehicle procurement will increase. In Iran, Egypt and Algeria diesel locomotives are either currently being procured or there are concrete plans for their procurement. However, as the companies need investment funds in all segments of railway operation, the funds available are distributed accordingly. The installed base, however, has a relatively low average age, in some submarkets of the region (e.g. South Africa and Iran) this average is higher so that SCI Verkehr anticipates an increase in replacement procurements in the coming five years. In order to increase transport capacity on existing lines, locomotives with higher drive power and higher availability will be ordered. In the coming years network sections are increasingly going to be put into operation or old lines are going to be reactivated in the region. These projects include investment in infrastructure and traction. Importan Trend ce

Investment funds

Fleet structure

Operational requirements Infrastructure

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Annex A

Eastern Europe - Overview

Installed Base / Country
Installed Base / Country [Number of D-locos] Poland Czech Republic Romania Hungary Turkey Slovakia Bulgaria Serbia and Montenegro Lithuania Latvia Other Countries 0 1 000 2 000 3 000
SCI Verkehr GmbH

Delivery 20052009 / Country

Delivery / Country [Number of D-locos] Turkey Lithuania Serbia and Montenegro Poland Estonia Other Countries 0 20 40 60
SCI Verkehr GmbH

Installed Base / Operator

Installed Base / Operator [Number of D-locos]

Delivery 20052009 / Market Shares

Delivery / Market Shares [Number of D-locos]

PKP

23 %

Tlomsas 25 % CZ Loko Siemens

CD

CFR Transmashholding TCDD 7% Other Manufacturers

Other Operators 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

SCI Verkehr GmbH

23 % 22 %

In total: ~3 000 D-locos

SCI Verkehr GmbH

Installed Base / Power installed

Installed Base / Power installed [Number of D-locos] 6 000

Delivery 20052009 / Power installed

Delivery / Power installed [Number of D-locos] 100

75 4 000 50 2 000 25

0
no info <1.0 MW 1.01.9 MW 2.02.9 MW 3.04.9 MW 5.0 MW
SCI Verkehr GmbH

0
no info <1.0 MW 1.01.9 MW 2.02.9 MW 3.04.9 MW 5.0 MW
SCI Verkehr GmbH

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Annex C

Region

Country

Operator

Number of locomotives

Identification

Main supplier

Delivery from

Delivery to 1982 1982 1970 1960 1958 1956 1992 1989 1988 1988 1988 1981 1970 1960 1958 1981

Gauge [mm] 1524 1524 1524 1524 1524 750 1524 1524 1524 1524 750 1524 1524 1524 750 1435

Top-speed Power [km/h] 100 [kW]

Mode of drive

Eastern Europe Eastern Europe Eastern Europe Eastern Europe Eastern Europe Eastern Europe Eastern Europe Eastern Europe Eastern Europe Eastern Europe Eastern Europe Eastern Europe Eastern Europe Eastern Europe Eastern Europe Eastern Europe

Latvia Latvia Latvia Latvia Latvia Latvia Lithuania Lithuania Lithuania Lithuania Lithuania Lithuania Lithuania Lithuania Lithuania Mazedonia

Lietuvos Gelezinkeliai Lietuvos Gelezinkeliai Lietuvos Gelezinkeliai Lietuvos Gelezinkeliai Lietuvos Gelezinkeliai Lietuvos Gelezinkeliai State JSC "Latvijas Dzelzcels" State JSC "Latvijas Dzelzcels" State JSC "Latvijas Dzelzcels" State JSC "Latvijas Dzelzcels" State JSC "Latvijas Dzelzcels" State JSC "Latvijas Dzelzcels" State JSC "Latvijas Dzelzcels" State JSC "Latvijas Dzelzcels" State JSC "Latvijas Dzelzcels" Makedonski Zeleznici

81 10 12 48 1 3 58 14 70 14 2 10 32 4 2 2

2M62 Lugansk 2M62 Lugansk TEP60 Kolomensky Zavod TEM2 Bryansk TGK2 unknown TU2 unknown ChME3 CKD 2TE10U Lugansk 2M62 Lugansk TEP70 Kolomna TU7 Kambarka 2TE10M Lugansk M62 Lugansk TEM2 Bryansk TU2 Kaluga 667 BMZ-USSR

1976 1976 1970 1960 1958 1956 1965 1989 1976 1987 1988 1981 1970 1960 1958 1981

2940 diesel-electric diesel-electric

160 100 60 50 95 100 100 160 50 100 100 100 50 100

2208 diesel-electric 883 diesel-electric 185 diesel-hydraulic 242 diesel-electric 993 diesel-electric 4400 diesel-electric 2540 diesel-electric 2994 diesel-electric 294 diesel-hydraulic 4400 diesel-electric 1270 diesel-electric 882 diesel-electric 242 diesel-electric 882 diesel-electric

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Order form MC Diesel Locomotives

Please fax to: + 49 (221) 931 78-78 SCI Verkehr GmbH Cologne Office FAO Mr. Christian Bessler I would like to order the Multi Client Study The World Market for Diesel Locomotives Quantity Issue First copy + additional copies** First copy + additional copies ** Group package*** Language German German English English ___x German ___x English Single price* 2,800 600 2,800 600 8,000 Total price* Total price*

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