Impact of Mobile Services PDF

The Impact p of Mobile Services in Nigeria: g
How Mobile Technologies Are Transforming Economic and Social Activities
Abuja, Nigeria March 16, 2010
Mobile Services in Nigeria
Table of Contents Executive Summary The transformational role of mobile services Evolution of the industry worldwide Development of Nigerias Mobile Market Relevance of mobile industry in overall Nigerian economy Overview of mobile applications in social and economic activities across emerging
markets
Nigerian end users users perception on the impact of mobile services The value of mobile services in daily lives Financial impact on individuals Common uses of mobile services Impact on rural population Example of local social initiatives Pyramid Perspective
Executive Summary
Mobile communications are having a positive impact in Nigeria by attracting investment and developing various commercial activities
Pyramid analyzed mobile adoption trends, examples of mobile applications as well as the perspectives of key players and 1,500 Nigerian end users. The top five conclusions of our study are as follows:
1.
Mobile services have ample reach in Nigeria and will continue to post rapid growth. Mobile subscriptions surpassed 72.6m at YE2009 resulting in a penetration rate of 50% of the h population. l i Pyramid projects subscriptions will surpass 128m by 2014, creating a substantial user base for the development of the mobile applications market. The mobile industry is having a positive economic impact by generating substantial investment in infrastructure and employing a significant number of Nigerians. During the past decade, approximately $16bn has been invested in projects related to mobile services. services There are as many as 3m jobs directly and indirectly related to mobile services in the country.
2.
Executive Summary
Nigerian end users agree that mobile services have favorably influenced every aspect of their lives
3.
Nigerian end users agree that mobile services have positively influenced every aspect of their lives, lives enabling them to connect with different people, people access information, information create business opportunities, lower transaction costs and enhancing social interaction. Around the world, Pyramid has identified numerous examples of initiatives using public and private i f funding di that h l leverage mobile bil services i in i social i l programs, i improve the h operation i of f various vertical industries and foster connectivity in remote areas. The future development p of the mobile market in Nigeria g will be driven by y collaboration among industry players, the local government and international organizations. End users in Nigeria value mobile services greatly and are frequent users of this platform, yet the availability of specific mobile data-based applications is still limited. Developing a set of tools and information systems y will require q close collaboration among g local and international entities; ; telecom vendors and operators can play a key role in importing successful initiatives to Nigeria.
4.
5.
markets
Transformational Role of Mobile Services
The evolution of the mobile services market around the world is driven by advances in the areas of access networks, devices and applications
Wider Availability of High Speed Networks Versatile and Affordable Devices
Key Aspects: Intense competition among vendors brings device prices downwards Key Aspects: Declining prices for connectivity services Operators promoting bundled services Operators Evolution towards 3G and beyond Shared access and coverage of rural population Governments and NGOs supporting programs to connect schools, h l medical di l centers, etc Key Aspects: Development of User-Generated Content (UGC) Virtual communities and cloud computing Changing g gp patterns in entertainment drive advertising g investment towards mobile platforms Improvement in key features (size, definition, battery life, camera, etc) Wider availability of embedded modules (WiMax, 3G)
MOBILE MARKET
Variety of Applications
Source: Pyramid Research
The global telecom market continues to grow at rapid pace, particularly in the area of mobile services with subscriptions p surpassing p g 4.5bn in 2009 and very y important p potential p going forward in the area of mobile broadband (ie. Internet) services
Global access lines by type, 2008 2008-2014

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Subscription CAGR, 20092009-2014
Acces ss lines (bn)
Pay-TV VoIP Fixed circuit-switched voice Mobile broadband Mobile voice/messaging Fixed broadband
1% 20% -3% 30% 6% 11%
Source Pyramid Research, Research 4Q09 Mobile and Fixed Forecasts
Pyramid forecasts that over 55% of mobile subscriptions in the world will be using 3G+ in the next three years
Mobile subscriptions by technological generation, Global, 2005 2005-2014
Source Pyramid Research, Research 4Q09 Mobile Forecasts
In Nigeria, the mobile industry has developed over the past decade driven by a successful liberalization program and the overall potential of the market
Milestones in licensing and concessions awarded by the NCC
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
b y: Newtelecom Februar Digital policywas mobile enacted. licenses were December: awardedto Auctionsfor MTN,Mtel GSM andEconet licenses. Wireless (later Vmobile, Celteland nowZain).
June: Telecommun Firstnational icationsAct longdistance 2003 was license was enacted. offeredto MTSFirst Wireless. September: FourthGSM license and national carrier license awardedto GloMobile. November: Nitels national carrierand i t international ti l gateway license became operative.
October/ November: February: January: September: May: November: Twonational NCC Anational Gateway NCCawarded Three longdistance introduced carrier Telecoms licensesin national operator unified license was Integrated the 2.3GHz longdistance licenses access awardedto Services bandtofour operator t b became li licenses. P tC Prest Cable bl & national ti l operators, t licenses operative. These were Satellite TV longdistance but became grantedto13 Systems license discussions operative. companiesin became are still total, operative. ongoingto March: g including finalize the December: NCCissued MTN, Zain, issue 3G UMTS October: Alloperators Multi Links licensesto Etisalat had and MTN,Zain, launched introduced Starcomms. GloMobile services persecond The earliest andAlheri g billing. operative ti Engineering date forthe licenseswas July: July2006. NCCawarded fixed July: wireless Transcorp licenses buys75% stake inNitel
Source: NCC, NCC Pyramid Research
Pyramid estimates that the Nigerian mobile services market has grown from 422,000 in 2001 to roughly 73m at the end of 2009
In terms of the mobile

penetration, growth in Nigerias mobile market has been exponential, from just 0.33% of the population in 2001 to 48.7% in 2009.
Evolution of mobile subscriptions Nigeria, 20012001-2009

Mobile subscriptions 80 Subscription penetration 50% 45%
Mobile su ubscriptions (millions)
70 60 50 40 30 20 10
Penet tration of popula ation
40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Intense competition, the

proliferation of prepaid plans, lowcost handsets and the rapid expansion of mobile networks to different parts of the country are the main drivers of growth in mobile subscriptions.
The expansion of coverage to

underserved areas by the smaller CDMA operators has also led to increased competition, bringing overall communication prices down down.
Going forward, due to intense competition and constant innovation

from mobile service providers, a greater number of people will see value l i in and db be i in a position iti t to use mobile bil services. i P Pyramid id projects j t that Nigerias mobile subscriptions will surpass 128m by 2014, creating a substantial user base for the development of the mobile applications market.
10
The availability of prepaid services has been a key driver of the expansion of Nigerias mobile market; data services are only beginning to take off
Mobile market indicators, Nigeria, 20012001-2009 2001 Subscription penetrationof population Userpenetrationof population Prepaidsubscriptionsas percentageoftotal ARPS(US$) DataARPSas percentageoftotalARPS Monthlyminutesofuse (MOU) ( ) Annualchurnrate 0.3% 2002 1.2% 2003 2.4% 2004 7.2% 2005 13.8% 2006 20.9% 2007 28.2% 2008 43.1% 2009 48.7%
0.3% 99.9% $48.21 0.5% 223 2.0%
1.1% 99.8% $47.56 0.7% 162 8.7%
2.2% 99.6% $41.55 0.9% 136 18.5%
6.5% 99.6% $29.94 1.1% 119 18.6%
12.0% 99.5% $17.80 2.0% 89 26.8%
17.4% 99.5% $13.65 3.0% 70 27.9%
23.3% 99.5% $12.12 3.5% 53 48.4%
34.5% 99.2% $11.26 5.7% 51 44.0%
37.8% 99.1% $7.66 8.3% 46 41.8%
11
In US-dollar based revenue terms, the Nigerian mobile services market expanded at one of the fastest rates in Africa for the past decade and is the second largest in the region
Size of the mobile market, nominal GDP per capita and mobile service revenue CAGR, 20012001-2009, Select African markets
80%
Mobil le service reve nue CAGR 2001 1-2009
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% $0 $1,000 Kenya $1,072 Ghana $1,093
Nigeria $6,235
Algeria $3,101
Senegal $716 Cameroon $826 South Africa $9,993
Tunisia $1,395
Cote d'Ivoire $1,165 $ ,
Egypt $4,742
Morocco $3,048
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
GDP per capita it (US$)
12
The explosion of the mobile industry in Nigeria has resulted in a series of positive effects across the economy ranging from investment in networks to the creation of employment
Mobile services have multiple positive effects in an economy, most notably in emerging markets. Their economic benefits extend beyond y the investment that network operators p allocate to license fees, , taxes and network equipment and include the following factors:
End user spend money on mobile telecom services and devices allows a new industry to flourish Telecom operator spending on marketing, distribution, maintenance, training, support and network enhancements create important benefits for all involved in the value chain Mobile operators create employment, both direct and indirectly, and invest in the development of the labor force. Mobile services have a wide economic impact in a country, since they enable end users to conduct their daily business in a more effective manner, reducing the time and cost of transactions, improving access to markets, commoditizing information and generally allowing businesses to operate more efficiently.
13
According to Pyramids estimates, the annual revenue from mobile services represents between 2% and 7% of African countries Nominal GDP; in Nigeria this ratio is close to 4%
Ratio of mobile services revenue to total GDP, , select countries, , 2009

Ghana DRC Senegal Cote d'Ivoire Nigeria Cameroon Tanzania South Africa Kenya Botswana Algeria 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%
Mobile services revenue as percentage of GDP

14
Mobile operators also contribute to the economy by directly and indirectly creating jobs to provide and distribute their services; in Nigeria, we estimate there are as many as 3m jobs related to this industry
There are several groups of jobs, which
can be divided into two subgroups, that gravitate around mobile services:
Employment p y related to mobile sector In Nigeria, g , 2009
The top category of indirect employment
encompasses equipment sales, infrastructure deployment, advertising, marketing and public relations as well as security workers involved in the protection of base stations. Reportedly, in 2008 Zain employed as many as 8,000 8 000 security guards.
At the base of the pyramid, there are
mobile service resellers resellers, recharge card distributors, retailers, phone booth operators as well as street vendors. The so-called mini call centers consist of simply one or a few mobile phones and airtime bought in bulk from the operator. Call center operators allow other people to use the phone for a fee and quite often will take a message, also for a fee.
Source: NCC, NCC Pyramid Research
15
In addition, the sale of airtime and SIM cards has driven various forms of entrepreneurship
Distribution on the streets and MTN and Glo points of sale, Nigeria
S Source: P Pyramid id Research, R h NCC
16
In terms of capital investments, mobile operators in Nigeria have worked on infrastructure deployments, network rollouts, upgrades and expansions; the investment related to mobile services, for the past decade, adds up to approximately US$16bn
Private investment by telecom operators in Nigeria, 20012001-2008
Pyramid Research estimates that capital investments in mobile networks and operations have accounted for 80% of total telecommunications foreign capital investments (a total of more than $12bn by the middle of 2008) since the Nigerian government successfully liberalized the industry in 2001. As of March 2010, the NCC reported $18bn in telecom sector CAPEX, $16bn of which is invested by mobile operators.
Source: Pyramid Research, Research NCC
17
Mobile networks in Nigeria are in constant evolution; operators such as MTN, Zain and Glo, have undergone a technological migration from 2G to 2.5G and are working towards 3G
Breakdown by Mobile Technology, Nigeria Nigeria, , 20032003-2014

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 3G+ 2.5G 2G
% of T Total Terminals
Note: For the purposes of this exhibit, the following categories apply: 2G = GSM, TDMA, and CDMA One technologies 2.5G 2 5G = GPRS GPRS, EDGE EDGE, and CDMA 1X 1X, technologies 3G+ r= CDMA 200, UMTS, HSPA, Mobile WiMAX, and LTE technologies
Source: Pyramid Research, Research 4Q09 Mobile Forecasts
18
Additional areas where mobile services can have an important impact include rural connectivity projects, education, health, finance, agriculture, transport and entertainment applications
Vertical Rural Connectivity Nigeria
Millennium Village Pampaidaextend telephony services to hard to reach rural areas
International
India: Gramjioti Pilot Program- provide mobile broadband connectivity to villages and towns around Chennai in India
R Rural l Connectivity C ti it
Rural Telephony ProgramProgram train and support local villagers to provide mobile based pay-phone services
Uganda: Village Phone Phone- train and support local villagers to provide mobile based payphone services
Education
Ladybird Mobile Reading Program- support classroom activities through mobile based educational exercises
South Africa: Dr. Mathleverage the MXit mobile social platform to provide tutoring services
Health
My Question, My Answer- SMS and phone operator based educational and counseling program covering the HIV/AIDS topic
Uganda: Text to Change- SMS based interactive quiz and educational tool covering the HIV/AIDS topic
19
Additional areas where mobile services can have an important impact include rural connectivity projects, education, health, finance, agriculture, transport and entertainment applications
Vertical Finance Nigeria
Moneybox Africa- mobile commerce application to virtually store and move money, make payments and enable other mobile based financial transactions Cassava Growers ProjectProject disseminates market information in conjunction with information points and trade agents
International
Kenya: Safaricom M-Pesa- SMS based mobile payment and money transfer platform
A i lt Agriculture
Uganda: Grameen Market Information- disseminates market information through SMS, supported by Community Knowledge Workers
Transport
Hot FM Abuja Traffic Monitoring- Collects traffic information sent by listeners through SMS and mobile calls.
United States: OnStar- GSM based in-vehicle security and information service
Entertainment
DSTV and MTN Mobile TV Service- broadcasts content over a mobile network
South Africa: Mxit: WAP based instant messaging and social networking program
20
markets
Nigerian end users perception on the impact of mobile services The value of mobile services in daily lives Financial impact on individuals Common uses of mobile services Impact on rural population Example of local social initiatives Pyramid Perspective
21
Nigerian End Users Perception of Mobile Services
During 2009, Pyramid conducted a survey of over 1,500 mobile end users in Nigeria to analyze the impact of mobile services in their daily lives
The sample group of our survey is representative of

Nigerian society, including a combination of female and male participants. The research was designed t i to include l d mobile bil users living li i in i diff different t parts t of f the country, with 70% of interviewees living in urban areas and 30% living in rural areas in the following regions and cities: Lagos, Abuja, Kano, , Kaduna, , Ibadan, , Jos, , Aba and Enugu. g In Akure, terms of age groups, we focused the study on the 16-69-year-old population.
Pyramid developed a questionnaire comprising
mostly closed-end questions. The main topics covered in our interviews were as follows: Determinants of mobile ownership Drivers of usage Purpose and pattern of mobile phone usage, including: Work-related activities Entertainment and access to i f information ti Access to health, education, financial and logistics/transportation information and services
Perceived changes in patterns and benefits of

economic activity among mobile phone users Perceived changes in work practices and networks of social contacts among mobile phone users
Data D t was collected ll t d via i a combination bi ti of f phone-based h b d and d

face-to-face interviews in households and high-traffic pedestrian areas.
S Source: P Pyramid id Research R h
22
60% of interviewees agreed that mobile services have positively influenced every aspect of their lives including 35% who claim that a mobile phone has dramatically improved all aspects of their lives
Q. What option p best describes the impact p of mobile services in your y daily life? Nigeria, 2009
100% 90% 80% 70%

R Respondents
Having a mobile phone has negatively impacted my life Neutral Having a mobile phone has made some of my daily tasks easier Having a mobile phone has improved p most aspects p of my y life Having a mobile phone has dramatically improved all aspects of my life
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Male Female
Source: Pyramid Research survey of 1,500 1 500 mobile service users in Nigeria Nigeria, 2009
23
Furthermore, more than 80% of our sample has seen financial gains from using mobile services through g a combination of saving g on communications expenses p and generating g g additional income by way of staying connected
Q. Have you Q y seen a positive p financial impact p on your y life from the use of mobile services? Nigeria, 2009
100% 90% 80% 70% Benefited from savings in telecom and other areas Benefited from additional income Benefited both from savings and additional income No financial benefit
Respondents
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Metropolitan South East North
Source: Pyramid Research survey of 1,500 1 500 mobile service users in Nigeria Nigeria, 2009
24
End users from different age groups point out the positive financial impact of using a mobile phone ranges from increased opportunities to find jobs to savings in transportation and better access to information
Q. What type of financial benefits do you derive from mobile phone use? Nigeria, 2009
Age 46-69 Age 26-35 Job opportunity Age 36-45 Age 16-25
Lower cost than alternative comms
Lower travel or entertainment expenses p
Make and receive payments
Better access to financial information
Time savings in travel
Better access to market information
Better ability to find jobs
Communicate with clients
Increased ability to sell 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Mobile phone users deriving benefit 50%
Source: Pyramid Research survey of 1,500 mobile service users in Nigeria, 2009
25
Nigerians also rely on mobile services to conduct activities related to education, health and entertainment activities
Q. For which of the following activities do you leverage your mobile phone? Nigeria, g , 2009
Job opportunity
Most commonly mentioned uses by category:

Age 46-69 Age 26-35 Age 36-45 Age 16-25
EDUCATION Communicating with teachers and colleagues g Downloading information to mobile phone
Financial services
Education
EMERGENCY/HEALTH
Transportation & logistics
Calling friends, family and emergency services Communicating with doctor/nurse/hospital ENTERTAINMENT Listening to music/radio Playing games Taking/sending pictures
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Mobile phone users engaging in activity
Emergency or other health services
Entertainment & information
Work-related Work related
26
In the area of work related activities, mobile services are leveraged by individuals living in both rural and urban areas
Q. For which of the following activities do you leverage your mobile phone? Nigeria, 2009
Rural Mobile as modem for PC Internet access Personal l organiser i ( (calendar, l d alarms, l contacts) ) Email access Save time and increase productivity Accessing information Improve customer service, relationships Increase ability to sell by speaking to potential clients Speaking to colleagues 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Urban
Respondents reporting usage

27
Example of Social Initiatives
In fact, for individuals based out of remote areas, mobile services are often the sole media of communication and a source of added income
Rural Telephony Project startup package and a phone lady on the outskirts of Suleja Suleja, , a city of 105,000 inhabitants north of Abuja
Key Aspects of the Rural Telephony Project in Nigeria The program is a cooperation between the Growing Businesses Foundation (GBF), a Nigerian NGO, MTN Foundation (MTNF), which is the CSR arm of MTN Nigeria, g , the International Finance Corporation p ( (IFC) ) and a group of small communal microfinance institutions (MFIs). A startup package, provided by MTNF, includes loans that range between N14,200 and N21,400 ($95 and $140) depending on optional material in the package $140), package, payable over a six-month period, and carry a 15% annual interest rate. The startup packages include a Nokia phone, an MTN SIM card, , an optional p antenna to boost the wireless signal, a solar charger, subsidized MTN airtime, promotional material. The promotional material is comprised of a table, an umbrella, chairs, banners showcasing call rates, a hat and a T-shirt. To date, date the program has benefited 1,500 1 500 Phone Ladies in rural and semirural Nigeria. These beneficiaries operate in 21 of the countrys 36 states.
S Source: Pyramid P id Research, R h 2009
28
Example of Social Initiatives
Existing connectivity projects in Nigeria illustrate the complex organizational structure behind social initiatives
Rural telephony program partners and their role, 20042004-June 2009
Source: GBF, GBF Pyramid Research
29
Table of Contents Executive Summary The transformational role of mobile services Evolution of the industry worldwide Development of Nigerias Mobile Market Relevance of mobile industry in overall Nigerian economy Overview O i of f mobile bil applications li ti i in social i l and d economic i activities ti iti across emerging i
markets
30
Pyramid Perspective
Going forward, Nigerian end users expect to see a wider variety of data-based applications in the market; in the agriculture sector, for instance, we identified interest in a combination of information and transactional services
Q. W What at new ew mobile ob le appl applications cat o s would you like l e to use in the t e future? utu e? Nigerias rural users
Money y transfers over mobile phone p Education-related applications from government Abilit t Ability to pay f for t transportation t ti f fees with my mobile phone Agriculture-related information Local information (weather, news) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Percentage of rural respondents reporting use

31
Pyramid Perspective
Overall, the future development of the mobile market in Nigeria will be driven by collaboration among industry players, the local government and international organizations
Key Strategic Aspects to Develop Social Initiatives Leveraging Mobile Technologies
Learn from initiatives established in other countries Attract internationals players (Multilateral organizations, NGOs, private app developers) Secure S the h collaboration ll b i of f local l l industry players (incentives, funds, grants)
Developing a set of tools and information systems will require close collaboration among local and international entities Telecom vendors and operators can play a key role in importing successful initiatives to Nigeria Government agencies may facilitate databases of critical info (weather, agriculture, education) to start the program
Organize Local Players to Launch Programs / Facilitate Industry data
Government involvement in the promotion of the Nigerian mobile market
Manage program towards self-sustainability

Set clear goals for participants
Secure addition of new partners to each initiative Develop VAS
Monitor , operate and enhance the application + VAS
Ensure applications are available to a large share of users Promote enhancements
Source: Pyramid Research
32
THANK YOU.
Gabriela Baez Managing Director Email: gbaez@pyr.com Badii Kechiche Sr. Analyst
Email: bkechiche@pyr.com bkechiche@pyr com
PYRAMID RESEARCH UK Tel: +44-20-7560 4471 Fax: +44-20-7560 4485 PYRAMID RESEARCH US Tel.: + 1 617 871 1900 Fax: + 1 617 871 1933
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The Impact p of Mobile Services in Nigeria: g

How Mobile Technologies Are Transforming Economic and Social Activities

Abuja, Nigeria March 16, 2010

Mobile Services in Nigeria

Mobile Services in Nigeria

Mobile Services in Nigeria

Mobile Services in Nigeria

Mobile Services in Nigeria

Transformational Role of Mobile Services

Source: Pyramid Research

Mobile Services in Nigeria

Transformational Role of Mobile Services

Global access lines by type, 2008 2008-2014

Subscription CAGR, 20092009-2014

Acces ss lines (bn)

1% 20% -3% 30% 6% 11%

Source Pyramid Research, Research 4Q09 Mobile and Fixed Forecasts

Mobile Services in Nigeria

Transformational Role of Mobile Services

Mobile subscriptions by technological generation, Global, 2005 2005-2014

Source Pyramid Research, Research 4Q09 Mobile Forecasts

Mobile Services in Nigeria

Transformational Role of Mobile Services

Mobile Services in Nigeria

Transformational Role of Mobile Services

In terms of the mobile

Evolution of mobile subscriptions Nigeria, 20012001-2009

Mobile su ubscriptions (millions)

Penet tration of popula ation

Intense competition, the

The expansion of coverage to

Going forward, due to intense competition and constant innovation

Mobile Services in Nigeria

Transformational Role of Mobile Services

0.3% 99.9% $48.21 0.5% 223 2.0%

1.1% 99.8% $47.56 0.7% 162 8.7%

2.2% 99.6% $41.55 0.9% 136 18.5%

6.5% 99.6% $29.94 1.1% 119 18.6%

12.0% 99.5% $17.80 2.0% 89 26.8%

17.4% 99.5% $13.65 3.0% 70 27.9%

23.3% 99.5% $12.12 3.5% 53 48.4%

34.5% 99.2% $11.26 5.7% 51 44.0%

37.8% 99.1% $7.66 8.3% 46 41.8%

Source Pyramid Research, Research 4Q09 Mobile Forecasts

Mobile Services in Nigeria

Transformational Role of Mobile Services

Mobil le service reve nue CAGR 2001 1-2009

Senegal $716 Cameroon $826 South Africa $9,993

Cote d'Ivoire $1,165 $ ,

GDP per capita it (US$)

Source Pyramid Research, Research 4Q09 Mobile Forecasts

Mobile Services in Nigeria

Transformational Role of Mobile Services

Mobile Services in Nigeria

Transformational Role of Mobile Services

Ratio of mobile services revenue to total GDP, , select countries, , 2009

Mobile services revenue as percentage of GDP

Mobile Services in Nigeria

Transformational Role of Mobile Services

There are several groups of jobs, which

Employment p y related to mobile sector In Nigeria, g , 2009

The top category of indirect employment

At the base of the pyramid, there are