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EEA Report No 4/2008

JRC Reference Report No JRC47756

Impacts of Europe's changing climate


— 2008 indicator-based assessment

Joint EEA-JRC-WHO report


Cover design: EEA
Cover photo © Guy Padfield, http://www.guypadfield.com
Left photo © Stockxpert
Right photo © EEA
Layout: EEA

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Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2008

ISBN 978-92-9167-372-8
ISSN 1725-9177
DOI 10.2800/48117

© EEA, Copenhagen, 2008, European Communities, 2008

REG.NO. DK- 000244

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Contents

Contents

Acknowledgements..................................................................................................... 5

Foreword..................................................................................................................... 9

Executive summary................................................................................................... 11

Introduction ............................................................................................................. 20
1.1 Purpose and scope............................................................................................20
1.2 Background and policy framework.......................................................................20
1.3 Outline............................................................................................................21
2 The climate system and human activities............................................................. 23
2.1 Introduction.....................................................................................................23
2.2 The past 800 000 years.....................................................................................25
2.3 The past 10 000 years until 150 years ago ..........................................................25
2.4 The past 150 years...........................................................................................26
3 Observed climate change impacts........................................................................ 28

4 Climate change impacts: what the future has in store.......................................... 31


4.1 Scenarios........................................................................................................31
4.2 Projected global climate change impacts..............................................................32
4.3 Risks of non‑linear climate change......................................................................34
4.4 Limiting damage by mitigation and adaptation......................................................34
5 An indicator-based assessment............................................................................ 37
5.1 Introduction.....................................................................................................37
5.2 Atmosphere and climate ...................................................................................39
5.3 Cryosphere .....................................................................................................60
5.4 Marine biodiversity and ecosystems.....................................................................76
5.5 Water quantity, river floods and droughts.............................................................92
5.6 Freshwater quality and biodiversity ..................................................................102
5.7 Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity..............................................................111
5.8 Soil...............................................................................................................124
5.9 Agriculture and forestry...................................................................................135
5.10 Human health................................................................................................149
6 Adaptation to climate change............................................................................. 161
6.1 Europe needs to adapt.....................................................................................161
6.2 Adaptation occurs at transboundary, sub‑national and local levels.........................163
6.3 From European and national strategies to regional and local implementation..........164
7 Economic consequences of climate change......................................................... 167
7.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................167
7.2 Direct losses from weather disasters.................................................................169
7.3 Normalised losses from river flood disasters.......................................................173
7.4 Coastal areas.................................................................................................176

Impacts of Europe's changing climate — 2008 indicator-based assessment 


Contents

7.5 Public water supply and drinking water management...........................................178


7.6 Agriculture and forestry...................................................................................179
7.7 Biodiversity and ecosystem goods and services...................................................182
7.8 Energy..........................................................................................................183
7.9 Tourism and recreation....................................................................................187
7.10 Health...........................................................................................................190
7.11 Costs of climate change for society...................................................................192
8 Data gaps, uncertainties and future needs......................................................... 193
8.1 Introduction...................................................................................................193
8.2 Gaps in observations and uncertainties in projections..........................................195
8.3 Future needs .................................................................................................202
Glossary.................................................................................................................. 208

References.............................................................................................................. 213

List of tables, figures and maps............................................................................... 242

 Impacts of Europe's changing climate — 2008 indicator-based assessment


Acknowledgements

Acknowledgements

Report coordination Chapter 4 Climate change impacts: what the


future has in store
André Jol, Pavel Šťastný (European Environment
Agency (EEA)); Frank Raes, Carlo Lavalle (Joint Author(s):
Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Frank Raes (JRC/IES); Jelle van Minnen (ETC/ACC)
Sustainability (JRC/IES)); Bettina Menne, Tanja Wolf and Rob Swart (ALTERRA).
(Word Health Organization/Europe (WHO/Europe)).

Chapter 5 An indicator-based assessment


Contributors by chapter/section
Section 5.1 Introduction
Summary
Author(s):
Author(s): André Jol (EEA).
André Jol and Markus Erhard (EEA).
Section 5.2 Atmosphere and climate
Contributors:
Tim Carter (Finnish Environment Institute Author(s):
(SYKE), Finland) and Rob Swart (ALTERRA, Jelle van Minnen (ETC/ACC); Pavel Šťastný (EEA)
the Netherlands). and Rita van Dingenen (JRC/IES).

Chapter 1 Introduction Contributors:


Phil Jones (Climate Research Unit — University
Author(s): of East Anglia (CRU-UEA), the United Kingdom);
André Jol (EEA). Albert Klein Tank, Gerard van der Schier (Royal
Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), the
Chapter 2 The climate system and human Netherlands); Ronald Hiederer (JRC/IES); Dick Dee
activities (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
Forecasts (ECWMF)); Ricardo Fernandez (EEA).
Author(s):
Frank Raes (JRC/IES)) and Jelle van Minnen Section 5.3 Cryosphere
(European Topic Centre on Air and Climate change
(ETC/ACC)). Author(s):
Thomas Voigt (ETC/ACC) and Gunnar Sander
Chapter 3 Observed climate change impacts (EEA).

Author(s): Contributors:
Frank Raes (JRC/IES); Jelle van Minnen (ETC/ACC) Michael Zemp, Wilfried Häberli (World Glacier
and Rob Swart (ALTERRA). Monitoring Service (WGMS), Switzerland);
Jack Kohler, Sebastian Gerland, Cecilie von
Contributors: Quillfeldt (Norwegian Polar Institute (NPI),
Cynthia Rozenzweig (National Aeronautics and Norway); Tim Carter (SYKE); Dorthe Dahl‑Jensen
Space Administration/Goddard Institute for Space (University of Copenhagen (KU), Denmark);
Studies (NASA), USA). Andreas Ahlstrøm (Geological Survey of
Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), Denmark);
Konrad Streffen (Cooperative Institut for
Research in Environmental Sciences (IRES), USA);

Impacts of Europe's changing climate — 2008 indicator-based assessment 


Acknowledgements

Christian Haas (University of Alberta (U of A), Section 5.7 Terrestrial ecosystems and


Canada); Michael Karcher (Alfred Wegener biodiversity
Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI),
Germany), Stephan Gruber, Jeanette Nötzli Author(s):
(University of Zürich (UZH), Switzerland); Jane Feehan (EEA); Mike Harley (AEA-Technology
Daniel Vonder Mühll (Swiss Federal Institute (AEA-T), the United Kingdom) and Jelle van Minnen
of Technology (ETH), Switzerland); Felix Keller (ETC/ACC).
(European Tourism Institute at the Academia
Engiadina (ETI), Switzerland). Contributors:
Richard Gregory (Royal Society for the Protection
Section 5.4 Marine biodiversity and of Birds (RSPB), the United Kingdom); Lawrence
ecosystems Jones-Walters, Ana Nieto (European Centre for
Nature Conservation (ECNC), the Netherlands);
Author(s): Michel Bakkenes, Rob Alkemade (Netherlands
Trine Christiansen (EEA) and Thomas Voigt Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL),
(ETC/ACC). the Netherlands); Annette Menzel (Technical
University Munich (TUM), Germany); Arnold
Contributors: van Vliet (Wageningen University and Research
Gilles Larnicol, Stephanie Guinehut (Collecte Centre (WUR), the Netherlands); Tim Sparks
Localisation Satellites (CLS) France); (Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH), the
Giovanni Coppini, Nadia Pinardi (European United Kingdom); Josef Settele (Helmholtz Centre
Topic Centre on Water (ETC/W)); Peter Wadhams for Environmental Research (UFZ), Germany);
(University of Cambridge, the United Kingdom); Chris Both (University of Groningen, the
Salvatore Marullo (Italian National Agency for Netherlands); Pamela Berry (University of Oxford,
New Technologies, Energy and the Environment the United Kingdom); Nikki Hodgson (AEA-T).
(ENEA), Italy); Peter Loewe (Federal Maritime
and Hydrographic Agency (BSH), Germany); Section 5.8 Soil
Martin Edwards, David Johns (Sir Alistar Hardy
Foundation for Ocean Science (SAHFOS), the Author(s):
United Kingdom); Keith Brander (International Arwyn Jones, Luca Montanarella, Vladimir
Council for Exploration of the Sea (ICES), Denmark); Stolbovoy (JRC/IES); Anna-Rita Gentile (EEA).
Mark Dowell, Nicolas Hoepffner (JRC/IES);
Stefan Rahmstorff (Potsdam Institute for Climate Contributors:
Impact Research (PIK), Germany); Andreas Groh, Roland Hiederer, Ezio Rusco, Ciro Gardi, Hannes
Karin Novotny, Reinhard Dietrich (Dresden Reuter, Brechje Marechal (JRC/IES); Bob Jones
University of Technology (TUD), Germany); (Cranfield University, the United Kingdom);
Eva Gelabert (EEA). Jacqueline McGlade, Franz Dafner, Ronan Uhel 
(EEA).
Section 5.5 Water quantity, river floods and
droughts Section 5.9 Agriculture and forestry

Author(s): Author(s):
Luc Feyen (JRC/IES) and Peter Kristensen (EEA). Carlo Lavalle, Fabio Micale, Catalin Lazar,
Costanza Conte, Giampiero Genovese,
Section 5.6 Freshwater quality and Andrea Camia, Tracy Durrant Houston,
biodiversity Giuseppe Amatulli, Roland Hiederer (JRC/IES).

Author(s): Contributors:
Peter Kristensen (EEA). Ole Bøssing Christensen (Danish Meteorological
Institute (DMI), Denmark); Elena Cebrian Calvo
Contributors: (EEA); Simone Orlandini (University of Florence,
Peeter Nöges (JRC/IES); Heleen de Wit, Anne Lyche Italy); Jørgen E. Olesen (Danish Institute for
Solheim (ETC/W); Rick Battarbee (Environmental Agricultural Sciences (DIAS), Denmark).
Change Research Centre (ECRC), the United
Kingdom).

 Impacts of Europe's changing climate — 2008 indicator-based assessment


Acknowledgements

Section 5.10 Human health Contributors:


André Jol (EEA); Tim Carter (SYKE); Rob Swart
Author(s): (ALTERRA); Jelle van Minnen (ETC/ACC).
Bettina Menne (WHO/Europe).
Editing
Contributors:
Sari Kovats (London School of Hygeine and Tropical Peter Saunders, Bart Ulstein (under contract to
Medicine (LSHTM), the United Kingdom); Dorota NERI); Rob Swart (ALTERRA).
Jarosinska (EEA); Tanja Wolf (WHO/Europe);
Jan Semenza (European Centre for Disease Report support assistance
Prevention (ECDC)); Renault Lancelot (Centre for
International Cooperation in Agricultural Research Mette Palitzsch Lund, Mona Mandrup Poulsen,
for Development (CIRAD), France); Guy Hendrickx Pia Schmidt (EEA).
(Avia GIS, Belgium).
Members of the Advisory Group

Chapter 6 Adaptation to climate change André Berger (EEA Scientific Committee; Université
Catholique de Louvain, Belgium);
Author(s): Peter Wadhams (EEA Scientific Committee;
Stéphane Isoard (EEA) and Rob Swart (ALTERRA). University of Cambridge, the United Kingdom);
László Somlyódy (EEA Scientific Committee,
Contributors: Budapest University. of Technology and Economics,
André Jol (EEA); Tim Carter, Hanna Mela (SYKE); Hungary); Jakub Gibek (European Commission
Laurens Bouwer (Institute for Environmental Directorate-General Environment (EC, DG ENV));
Studies; University of Amsterdam (IVM), the Karin Zaunberger (European Commission
Netherlands); Jelle van Minnen (ETC/ACC). Directorate-General Environment (EC, DG ENV));
Claus Bruning (EC, DG RTD) (European
Chapter 7 Economic consequences of climate Commission Directorate-General for Research
change (EC, DG RTD)); Maria Fuentes (European
Commission Directorate-General Agriculture
Author(s): (EC, DG AGRI)); Antonio Navarra (National
Stéphane Isoard (EEA); Paul Watkiss (Paul Watkiss Institute of Geophysics and Vulcanology (INGV,
Associates, the United Kingdom); Thomas Voigt Italy)); Earl Saxon (International Union for
(ETC/ACC), José Barredo (JRC/IES); Peter Conservation of Nature (IUCN)); Tim Carter
Kristensen (EEA); Bettina Menne (WHO/Europe). (Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Finland));
Zbigniew Kundzewicz (Research Centre of
Contributors: Agricultural and Forest Environment (RCAFE‑PAS),
André Jol, Etem Karakaya, Hans Vos (EEA); Karin Poland); Andrzej Kedziora (Research Centre of
Zaunberger (European Commission Directorate Agricultural and Forest Environment (RCAFE‑PAS),
General Environment (EC, DG ENV)); Maria Poland); Steven Wade (HR Wallingford, the United
Fuentes (European Commission DG Agriculture Kingdom); Chris Hewitt (Hadley Centre, the
(EC, DG AGRI)); Luc Feyen (JRC/IES); Juan United Kingdom); Ole Bøssing Christensen (Danish
Carlos Ciscar (Joint Research Centre, Institute for Meteorological Institute (DMI, Denmark));
Prospective Technological Studies (JRC/IPTS)); Nils Rick Batterbee (University College London, the
Roar Sælthun (University of Oslo (UiO), Norway); United Kingdom); Josef Settele (Helmholtz Centre
Laurens Bouwer (IVM); Petra Löw, Angelika Wirtz for Environmental Research (UFZ, Germany));
(Munich RE Group, Germany); Sandrine Noël Lars-Otto Reiersen (Arctic Monitoring and
(European Insurance and Reinsurance Federation Assessment Programme (AMAP), Norway);
(CEA), France); Robert Nicholls (University of Manfred Klöppel (European Centre for
Southampton); Ana Iglesias (Polytechnic University Medium‑Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF));
of Madrid); Bas Amelung (Maastricht University). Dick Dee (European Centre for Medium-Range
Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)); Wolfgang Cramer
Chapter 8 Data gaps, uncertainties and future (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
needs (PIK), Germany)); Katrin Vohland (Potsdam
Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK),
Author(s): Germany)); Albert Klein Tank (Royal Netherlands
Markus Erhard (EEA). Meteorological Institute (KNMI), the Netherlands));

Impacts of Europe's changing climate — 2008 indicator-based assessment 


Acknowledgements

Patrice Miran (Plan Bleu, France); Chantal van Ham Bureau (OECC), Spain) NFP;
(International Union for Conservation of Nature Mattias Lundblad (Swedish Environmental Protection
(IUCN), Regional Office for Europe). Agency, Sweden) NFP;
Neil Maycock (Defra Environmental Statistics &
National focal points and primary contact points Indicators Division, the United Kingdom), NFP.
on climate change review
Other expert review
Johan Brouwers (Flemish Environment Agency
(VMM), Belgium), NFP; Detelina Petrova (Bulgarian Johan Bogaert (Flemish Environmental
Executive Environment Agency (IAOS), Bulgaria), Administration (VMM), Belgium); Paul Ruyssenaars
NFP; Christina Pykonen (Federal Environment (European Topic Centre on Air and Climate change
Agency (UBA), Germany), NFP; (ETC/ACC)); Frank de Leeuw (European Topic
Andries Hof (Netherlands Environmental Centre on Air and Climate change (ETC/ACC));
Assessment Agency (PBL), the Netherlands), NFP; Peter Part (Joint Research Centre, Institute for
Johnny Auestad (Norwegian Pollution Control Environment and Sustainability (JRC/IES)); Sandrine
Authority (SFT), Norway), NFP; Domenico Gaudioso Noël (European Insurance and Reinsurance
(Italian Environment Protection and Technical Federation (CEA/EIRF)); Lorenzo Ciccarese (Italian
Services Agency (APAT), Italy), NFP; Environment Protection and Technical Services
Concepción Martínez Lope (Spanish Climate Change Agency (APAT), Italy).

 Impacts of Europe's changing climate — 2008 indicator-based assessment


Foreword

Foreword

Climate change and its associated impacts require Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
immediate action in order to safeguard the economy and the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. We
and environment of Europe and the rest of the consider the report a successful example of an inter-
world. This indicator report shows how temperature institutional collaboration.
is increasing, sea levels are rising, glaciers, ice sheets
and sea ice are melting, precipitation is changing, The report highlights that more action is needed
and the intensity and frequency of weather extremes towards halting biodiversity loss and maintaining
in many regions is increasing. It also underlines the the resilience of ecosystems because of their
cascade of consequences including an increased essential role in regulating the global climate
risk of floods and droughts, losses of biodiversity system. Enhancing ecological coherence and
(marine, freshwater and terrestrial), threats to interconnectivity of the EU Natura 2000 network is
human health, and damage to economic sectors key to the long-term survival of many species and
such as energy, transport, forestry, agriculture, and habitats, for them to be able to adapt to a changing
tourism. climate.

We are already experiencing a global average Climate change is also a significant and emerging
temperature increase of almost 0.8 °C above threat to public health, and changes the way we
pre‑industrial levels, and even higher increases in must look at protecting vulnerable populations.
Europe and northern latitudes. There is an urgent The large number of additional deaths during the
need to stabilize the climate below a 2 °C increase 2003 heat wave highlighted the need for adaptation
above pre-industrial levels, so as to avoid major actions, such as heat health action plans. A number
irreversible impacts on society and ecosystems. To of vector-borne, water- and food-borne and other
achieve this we need both global greenhouse gas diseases are expected to increase. The possible
emission reductions and actions to adapt to climate spread of such diseases is highly dependent on early
change. detection and having preventive measures in place.

For the past decade the European Union has tackled The report highlights that vulnerable regions
climate change through international agreements and sectors vary widely across Europe. Key
under the United Nations Framework Convention economic sectors, which will need to adapt through
on Climate Change. What is now needed is a integration within sectoral policies at European
massive scale-up in renewable energy technology and (sub-) national levels, include energy supply,
development and transfer, investment in energy and health, water management, agriculture, tourism and
resource efficiency, adaptation actions and efforts transport. The report shows that there is a lack of
to reduce deforestation, increase the resilience of information on good practices in adaptation actions
ecosystems and reduce effects on human health. A and their costs.
global post-2012 regime, hopefully agreed by the
end of 2009, will need to include all these elements. The report shows there is a need for improved
international monitoring and reporting mechanisms
Tackling the climate change problem requires by countries and international organisations.
numerous relevant institutions to work towards A European Clearing House on climate change
the same goal. This report was prepared jointly impacts, vulnerability and adaptation will make
by the European Environment Agency, including information widely available to users across
its European Topic Centres, the Joint Research Europe. It will be underpinned by the EU Shared
Centre of the European Commission, and World Environmental Information System (SEIS), the
Health Organization Regional Office for Europe. services to be generated by the EU Kopernikus
It builds on results of recent national and EU-wide programme on global monitoring for environment
research activities, the fourth assessment of the and security and the WHO Climate, Environment

Impacts of Europe's changing climate — 2008 indicator-based assessment 


Foreword

and Health Information System (CEHAIS). Our experts that have contributed. In particular we
institutes are committed to contribute to the further would also like to thank the external Advisory
development of these systems and services. Group, which included representatives from
various key EU and national research programmes,
The report was prepared at a time when the several international organizations, the European
European Commission was discussing ideas for Commission and the EEA Scientific Committee, for
a European strategy on adaptation in its Green their continued support for the project and their
Paper on Adaptation (2007). More concrete policy valuable advice.
actions have been developed in its White Paper on
Adaptation (due at the end of 2008). This report will
provide a valuable resource in the implementation
phase of the White Paper and for the development Professor Jacqueline McGlade, Executive Director,
of national adaptation plans by member countries. European Environment Agency, Copenhagen
Our three organizations are committed to providing
the appropriate data and information to support
the efforts of European policy makers and society
to develop and implement both adaptation and Professor Leen Hordijk, Director, Institute for
mitigation actions. Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research
Centre, Ispra
Hereby we would like to thank all staff that worked
hard on finalizing the report, from EEA, and
its European Topic Centres on Air and Climate
Change, on Water and on Biological Diversity, JRC Dr Nedret Emiroglu, Director of Health Programs,
and WHO Europe, as well as the many external WHO Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen

10 Impacts of Europe's changing climate — 2008 indicator-based assessment


Executive summary

Executive summary

Introduction work programme on impacts, vulnerability and


adaptation to climate change, developed to help
Background and objective countries improve their understanding of climate
change impacts.
This report is an update and extension of the 2004
EEA Report Impacts of Europe's changing climate. This report
Since 2004, there has been much progress in
monitoring and assessing the impacts of climate The main part of this report summarises the
change in Europe. The objectives of this report are to relevance, past trends and future projections for
present this new information on past and projected about 40 indicators (from 22 in the 2004 report).
climate change and its impacts through indicators, The indicators cover atmosphere and climate, the
to identify the sectors and regions most vulnerable cryosphere, marine systems, terrestrial systems
to climate change with a need for adaptation, and biodiversity, agriculture and forestry, soil,
and to highlight the need to enhance monitoring water quantity (including floods and droughts),
and reduce uncertainties in climate and impact water quality and fresh water ecology, and human
modelling. To reflect the broadening of coverage health. The report also addresses adaptation and the
of indicators and make use of the best available economics of climate change impacts and adaptation
expertise, the report has been developed jointly by strategies and policies, and data availability and
EEA, JRC and WHO Regional Office for Europe. uncertainty.

Developments in science and policy


Key messages
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), in its 4th Assessment report (2007) Atmosphere and climate
reconfirmed and strengthened earlier scientific
findings about key aspects of climate change. Recent observations confirm that the global mean
Increased monitoring and research efforts have temperature has increased by 0.8 °C compared
enhanced understanding of climate change impacts with pre-industrial times for land and oceans,
and vulnerability. European research on impacts and and by 1.0 °C for land alone. Europe has warmed
vulnerability in national and EU programmes has more than the global average (1.0 and 1.2 °C,
advanced considerably, making a major contribution respectively), especially in the south-west, the
to international assessments of the IPCC, the Arctic north-east and mountain areas. Projections suggest
Climate Impact Assessment (2004), the UNEP Global further temperature increases in Europe between
Outlook for Ice and Snow (2007) and WHO reports. 1.0–5.5 °C by the end of the century, which is also
higher than projected global warming (1.8–4.0 °C).
At the 2007 UN Framework Convention on Climate Whether the EU's goal of less then 2 °C global
Change (UNFCCC) Bali conference, the urgency of warming (compared with pre-industrial levels)
responding effectively to climate change through will be exceeded will depend on the effectiveness
both adaptation and mitigation activities was of international climate policy regarding global
recognised by a larger number of countries than ever greenhouse gas emission reductions. More frequent
before. The EU has proposed a target of a maximum and more intense hot extremes and a decreasing
global temperature increase of 2 °C above the number of cold extremes have occurred the past
pre‑industrial level and a number of EU mitigation 50 years and this trend is projected to continue.
targets and actions by 2020. A post-Kyoto regime
that would include both adaptation and mitigation Changes in precipitation show more spatially
is expected to be agreed by end of 2009. There variable trends across Europe. Annual precipitation
has been progress in implementing the UNFCCC changes are already exacerbating differences

Impacts of Europe's changing climate — 2008 indicator-based assessment 11


Executive summary

between a wet northern part (an increase of 10 to 40 % infrastructure. The Greenland ice sheet has lost ice
during the 20th century) and a dry southern part since the 1990s, probably at an increasing rate. Hence
(a decrease of up to 20 % in some parts of southern its contribution to global sea-level rise has increased
Europe). The intensity of precipitation extremes in the past decades. Accelerated flow of outlet glaciers
such as heavy rain events has increased in the past to the sea accounts for more of the ice loss than
50 years, and these events are projected to become melting. No reliable predictions of the future of the
more frequent. Dry periods are projected to increase ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica can yet be
in length and frequency, especially in southern made. The processes causing the faster movement of
Europe. the glaciers are poorly understood and there is a lack
of long-term observations.
No clear trend in the frequency and intensity of
storms has yet been observed, but the strength of the Marine biodiversity and ecosystems
heaviest storms is projected to increase, albeit with
slightly lower frequency. Uncertainties for projected According to satellite observations, the rate of global
annual precipitation and frequency and the intensity mean sea-level rise has increased to 3.1 mm/year in
of extreme events continue to be larger than those the past 15 years (compared with a global average
for annual temperature. Climate variability and of 1.7 mm/year in the 20th century). Because of
change have contributed to an increase in ozone ocean circulation and gravity effects, sea-level rise
concentrations in central and south-western Europe, is not uniform but varies across European seas. An
which is projected to continue. This may result in acceleration of sea surface temperature increases
current ozone abatement policies becoming less has also been observed in recent decades. Projections
effective. suggest that sea level and sea surface temperature
of some European seas could rise more than the
Cryosphere global average. IPCC (2007) sea-level rise estimates
(up to 0.59 m by 2100) may be too low because of the
The cryosphere (the frozen world) is important since risks of more rapid changes than so far assessed in
it is affected by climate change, while changes in the the Greenland ice sheet (and partly in the Antarctic
cryosphere itself have a major effect on the climate ice sheet). Sea-level rise can cause flooding, coastal
system. European glaciers are melting rapidly: those erosion and the loss of flat and low-lying coastal
in the Alps have lost two thirds of their volume since regions. It increases the likelihood of storm surges,
1850, with loss accelerating since the 1980s, and enforces landward intrusion of salt water and
they are projected to continue their decline. Snow endangers coastal ecosystems and wetlands.
cover has decreased by 1.3 % per decade during the
past 40 years, with the greatest losses in spring and Changes in the timing of seasonal biological
summer, and decreases are projected to continue. phenomena (phenology) and distribution of marine
These various changes will cause natural hazards species have been observed, including earlier
and damage to infrastructure and changes in river seasonal cycles (by 4–6 weeks) and northward
flows and seasonality, thus substantially affecting the movements, by up to 1 100 km over the past 40 years,
hydrological cycle in river catchment areas. which seems to have accelerated since 2000. These
changes will affect marine ecosystems, biodiversity
The reduction in Arctic sea ice, especially in summer, and affect fisheries, including increasing the
has accelerated the past five decades, with a record vulnerability of North Sea cod stocks to over-fishing
low extent in September 2007 of about half the normal and a decline in seabird populations. Sub-tropical
minimum in the 1950s. Arctic sea ice may even species are occurring with increasing frequency in
disappear at the height of the melting season in the European waters, and sub‑Arctic species are receding
coming decades, creating a feedback that will further northwards. The rate of northward movement of a
increase climate change because dark open water particular species, the sailfin dory, has been estimated
reflects much less sunlight than white snow‑covered at about 50 km/year. Changes in the geographic
surfaces. Species specialised for life in the ice are distribution of fish may affect the management of
threatened. Less ice will ease access to the Arctic's fisheries. Fisheries regulations in the EU include
resources. Oil and gas exploration, shipping, tourism allocations of quotas based on historic catch patterns,
and fisheries will offer new economic opportunities, and these may need to be revised.
but also increase risks to the Arctic environment.
Water quantity, river floods and droughts
Also mountain permafrost is reducing due to
increasing temperatures, which is already increasing Climate change, including changes in temperature,
natural hazards and damage of high-mountain precipitation, glaciers and snow cover, is intensifying

12 Impacts of Europe's changing climate — 2008 indicator-based assessment


Executive summary

the hydrological cycle. However, other factors such on human use and aquatic ecosystems. Changes
as land-use changes, water management practices include movement of freshwater species northwards
and extensive water withdrawals have considerably and to higher altitudes, changes in life-cycle events
changed the natural flows of water, making it (phenology), for example spring phytoplankton
difficult to detect climate change-induced trends and zooplankton blooms up to one month earlier
in hydrological variables. In general, annual river than 30–40 years ago. Climate change may thus
flows have been observed to increase in the north favour and stabilise the dominance of harmful
and decrease in the south, a difference projected cyanobacteria in phytoplankton communities,
to exacerbate. Strong changes in seasonality are resulting in increased threats to the ecological status
projected, with lower flows in summer and higher of lakes and enhanced health risks, particularly
flows in winter. As a consequence, droughts and in water bodies used for public water supply
water stress will increase, particularly in the south and bathing. This may counteract nutrient load
and in summer. reduction measures. Further monitoring is needed to
confirm and better analyse these changes.
Europe has been affected by several major droughts
in recent decades, such as the catastrophic drought Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity
associated with the summer 2003 heatwave in
central parts of the continent and the 2005 drought Climate change, in particular milder winters, is
in the Iberian Peninsula. The regions most prone responsible for the observed northward and uphill
to an increase in drought hazard are southern and distribution shifts of many European plant species.
south‑eastern Europe, but minimum river flows will By the late 21st century, plant species are projected
also decrease significantly in many other parts of the to have shifted several hundred kilometers to the
continent, especially in summer. north, forests are likely to have contracted in the
south and expanded in the north, and 60 % of
In the past, the recorded number of river floods has mountain plant species may face extinction. The rate
been strongly influenced by improved monitoring of change will exceed the ability of many species to
and reporting systems. For example since 1990, adapt, especially as landscape fragmentation may
259 major river floods have been reported in Europe, restrict movement. The timing of seasonal events
of which 165 have been reported since 2000. For the in plants (phenology) is changing, for example the
coming decades, however, floods are projected to average advance of spring and summer between
occur more frequently in many regions, particularly 1971 and 2000 was 2.5 days per decade. The pollen
in winter and spring, although estimates of changes season starts on average 10 days earlier and is longer
in flood frequency and magnitude remain uncertain. than 50 years ago. Changes in seasonal events are
projected to continue.
Projected climate-induced changes in the
hydrological cycle will aggravate the impact of Birds, insects, mammals and other animal
other stresses (such as land-use and socio‑economic groups are also moving northwards and uphill.
changes) on water availability, freshwater ecosystems, A combination of the rate of climate change, habitat
energy production, navigation, freshwater supply fragmentation and other obstacles will impede
and use (in agriculture, households, industry) and the movement of many animal species, possibly
tourism. Adaptation actions will be needed such as leading to a progressive decline in European
improving water efficiency to mitigate water stress biodiversity. Distribution changes are projected to
and enhancing retention to reduce flood risk. continue. Suitable climatic conditions for Europe's
breeding birds are projected to shift nearly 550 km
Freshwater quality and biodiversity north-eastward by the end of the century, with the
average range size shrinking by 20 %. Projections
Increased temperatures of lakes and rivers (by for 120 native European mammals suggest that,
1–3 °C during the 20th century) have resulted assuming no migration, up to 9 % risk extinction
in decreases in ice cover on lakes and rivers by during the 21st century.
12 days on average in the last century in Europe.
These changes can be at least partly attributed to Climate change has caused advancement in the
climate change, and partly to other causes such as life cycles of many animal groups (phenology),
freshwater use for cooling processes (e.g. power including frog spawning, bird nesting and the
plants). Lake and river surface water temperatures arrival of migrant birds and butterflies, and these
are projected to increase further with increasing trends are projected to continue. Populations may
air temperatures. Warming of surface water can explode if the young are not exposed to normal
have several effects on water quality and hence predation pressures. Conversely, populations may

Impacts of Europe's changing climate — 2008 indicator-based assessment 13


Executive summary

crash if the emergence of vulnerable young is not in Since the beginning of the 21st century, the
synchrony with their main food source or if shorter variability of crop yields has increased as a
hibernation times lead to declines in body condition. consequence of extreme climatic events, e.g. the
summer heat of 2003 and the spring drought of
Soil 2007. Since extreme events are projected to increase
in frequency and magnitude, crop yields will
Information on the impacts of climate change on soil become more variable. Increases in water demand
and the various related feedbacks is very limited. for agriculture (by 50–70 %) has occurred mainly
Indicators with full European coverage are absent and in Mediterranean areas and this is projected to
there is a need for the establishment of appropriate continue, thus increasing competition for water
monitoring schemes. Changes in the bio-physical between sectors and uses. There is a need for
nature of soil are likely due to projected rising adaptation of farm practices and land management
temperatures, changing precipitation intensity and to reduce or avoid adverse impacts. Some of the
frequency and more severe droughts. Such changes adaptation options such as irrigation may however
can lead to a future decline in soil organic carbon increase emissions because of increased energy
stocks and a substantial increase in CO2 emissions. consumption.
Adapted land-use and management practices could
be implemented to counterbalance these impacts. In much of continental Europe, the majority
Projected increased variations in rainfall pattern of forests are growing faster now than in the
and intensity will make soils more susceptible to early 20th century, due to advances in forest
erosion. Projections show significant reductions management practices, increased nitrogen
in summer soil moisture in the Mediterranean deposition, and reduced acidification by air
region, and increases in the north‑eastern part of pollution (sulphur dioxide) and also increasing
Europe. Maintaining water retention capacity temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
is important, e.g. through adaptation measures. Projected climate change will favour certain species
Climate change alters the habitat of soil biota, which in some forest locations, while making conditions
affects the diversity and structure of species and worse for others, leading to substantial shifts in
their abundance. Ecosystem functioning is modified vegetation distribution. Changes in distribution
consequently, but quantified knowledge of these and the timing of seasonal events of both pests and
impacts is limited. Soil degradation is already intense pollinators will further change forests, although
in parts of the Mediterranean and central-eastern the types of change are difficult to project. Periods
Europe and, together with prolonged drought of drought and warm winters are increasing
periods and increased numbers of fires, is already pest populations and further weakening forests.
contributing to an increased risk of desertification. In Projected temperature increases will increase
many cases, desertification is irreversible, leading to the danger of forest fires and lead to more area
adverse social, economic and environmental effects. being burned, more ignitions and longer fire
Projected risks for future desertification are the seasons, especially in southern and central Europe.
highest in the same areas. Adaptation actions will also be needed in the
forestry sector to limit the adverse effects.
Agriculture and forestry
Human health
In both agriculture and forestry, climate change
affects the growing season and average yields Increased temperatures can have various effects
while also key relevant land-use and management on human health. The large number of additional
changes occur, making it difficult to detect climate deaths during the 2003 (more than 70 000 excess
change‑induced trends. The length of the growing deaths reported in 12 European countries) heat
season of several agricultural crops has increased wave highlighted the need for adaptation actions,
at northern latitudes, favouring the introduction such as heat health action plans. Such heat waves
of new species that were not previously suitable. are projected to become much more common
However, there has been a shortening of the growing later in the century as the climate continues
season locally at southern latitudes. The flowering to change, with mortality risk increases by
and maturity of several species in Europe now between 0.2 and 5.5 % for every 1 °C increase in
occurs two or three weeks earlier than in the past temperature above a location‑specific threshold.
with consequent higher risk of frost damage from There is some evidence that winter mortality in
delayed spring frosts. Changes in the growing season Europe has decreased, but this could have other
and the timing of the cycle of agricultural crops causes, particularly improved housing and the
(agrophenology) are projected to continue. prevention of winter infections. A number of

14 Impacts of Europe's changing climate — 2008 indicator-based assessment


Executive summary

vector-borne diseases are expected to increase in Economic impacts


the near future. The tiger mosquito, a transmitter
of a number of viruses, has extended its range Economic costs and potential benefits of climate
in Europe substantially over the past 15 years impacts have been quantified in some studies, but
and is projected to extend even further. Ticks factors other than climate change often have a
and the associated Lyme disease and tick-borne dominant effect, making assessments uncertain.
encephalitis are moving into higher altitudes and Furthermore the costs of adaptation actions are
latitudes. There is a risk of additional outbreaks of poorly understood for both the current situation
Chikungunya (a virus that is highly infective and and the future.
disabling but not transmissible between people)
and a potential for localised dengue to re-appear. However, about 90 % of all natural disasters that
Changes in the geographic distribution of the occurred in Europe since 1980 are directly or
sandfly vector are occurring in several European indirectly attributable to weather and climate,
countries and there is a risk of human Leishmania representing about 95 % of the economic losses
cases further north. The possible spread of these caused by catastrophic events. Overall losses
diseases is very dependent on early detection and resulting from weather- and climate-related
the preventive measures in place. Some water- and events have clearly increased during the past
food-borne disease outbreaks are expected to 25 years. Even though social change and economic
become more frequent with rising temperatures development are the main factors responsible
and more frequent extreme events. The risk is very for this increase, there is evidence that changing
dependent on human behaviour and the quality of patterns of weather disasters are also drivers.
health care services and their ability to detect early However, it is still not possible to determine the
and act. proportion of the increase in damage that might be
attributed to anthropogenic climate change.
Adaptation to climate change
Economic losses as a consequence of extreme flood
To limit adverse impacts and benefit from some events in recent years have been substantial. For
positive changes, adaptation is needed. Europe example, the estimated losses in central Europe
has to adapt and should also assist developing in 2002 were EUR 17.4 billion. In addition, the
countries as they are most vulnerable in terms of economic costs of coastal flooding (assuming no
communities, economic sectors and ecosystems. adaptation) are estimated in the range of 12 to
18 billion EUR/year for Europe in 2080. Adaptation
Adaptation involves all levels of decision-making, could significantly reduce these costs to around
from municipalities to international organisations. 1 billion EUR/year.
It is a cross-sectoral and transboundary issue which
requires comprehensive integrated approaches. The hot summer of 2003 in Europe is estimated to
Economic sectors that are particularly concerned have led to EUR 10 billion of economic losses to
with adaptation include energy supply, health, farming, livestock and forestry from the combined
water management, agriculture, tourism and effects of drought, heat stress and fire.
transport. Integration of adaptation into sectoral
policies at European and national levels is Work undertaken in the context of the initiative
important in order to reduce, in the long term, 'The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity'
the vulnerability of ecosystems, economic sectors, tentatively indicates that at a global level the
landscapes, health and communities to climate cumulative welfare losses due to loss of ecosystem
change impacts. services, with climate change being one of the
causes, could be equivalent to 7 % of annual
The European Commission adopted a Green Paper consumption by 2050. However, little is currently
'Adapting to climate change in Europe — options known either ecologically or economically about
for EU action' in June 2007 and is planning to the impacts of future biodiversity loss, and further
publish a White Paper framing a European assessment and methodological work is needed.
adaptation strategy and options for adaptation in
late 2008. National adaptation strategies have been Projections suggest significantly reduced
or are being developed and implemented in many space‑heating demand in northern Europe and
member countries, usually on the basis of impact increased space-cooling demand in southern
and vulnerability assessments, and/or because of Europe, with associated costs and benefits.
the urgency deriving from extreme weather and Hydropower production is projected to increase in
climate events. northern Europe and decrease in the south. With

Impacts of Europe's changing climate — 2008 indicator-based assessment 15


Executive summary

more severe summer droughts, the availability of Improved attribution methods for impact
cooling water for power plants could be limited. assessments

Changes in climate are starting to reduce the Even if many of the observed changes in various
attractiveness of major tourist resorts in mountain natural and societal systems are consistent with
areas and the Mediterranean, while improving it in observed climate changes, other factors also influence
other regions. The suitability of the Mediterranean system behaviour. Disentangling the climate change
for tourism is projected to decline during the factor from other (e.g. societal) factors and separating
key summer months, although there will be an anthropogenic from natural forcing for different
increased suitability during spring and autumn. indicators often remains a challenge (IPCC, 2007).
This can produce shifts in the major flows of tourism There is a need to improve in this area, in order to
within the EU, which will be very important in have better projections of impacts and develop more
regions where tourism is a dominant economic focused adaptation actions.
sector. Adaptation responses such as economic
diversification will be critical to limit economic losses. Improved understanding of socio-economic and
institutional aspects of vulnerability and adaptation
Key future challenges Many of the research and assessment activities to
date have focused on the climatological, physical and
Improved monitoring and reporting biological aspects of climate change impacts. A better
understanding of the socio-economic and institutional
In recent decades the availability of observed and aspects of vulnerability and adaptation, including
projected data and information on climate change costs and benefits, is urgently needed. Very few
impacts across Europe has improved. However, studies have assessed the effectiveness of adaptation
for many impacts the information availability measures over a variety of time scales; today's
differs very considerable between regions. There adaptation measures may not be effective in future
are some national monitoring and data collection decades if, for example, extreme weather events
programmes for a number of the 'Essential Climate become more frequent and intense.
Variables' defined by WMO as part of GCOS
(Global Climate Observing System), with regular Improved and coordinated scenario analysis of
international reporting obligations to the UNFCCC. impacts and vulnerability
Also satellite data are increasingly being used for
tracking these variables. Some data depend on The scenarios for the climate change impacts and
voluntary work by non-governmental organisations. vulnerability indicators presented in this report
However for many indicators the data result from are based mainly on global scenarios and contain
a limited number of local or regional projects and spatially detailed European information for only
national or EU-wide research projects. There are few indicators. They are also incomplete and differ
no regular Europe-wide monitoring programmes between indicators. Regular interaction is needed
for many of the indicators presented in this report. between the climate modelling community and
More spatially detailed information is needed to the user community that is analysing impacts,
develop adequate adaptation strategies. Through vulnerability and adaptation in order to develop
coordinated efforts by countries and the Commission, high‑resolution, tailor-made climate change scenarios
monitoring and reporting systems can be improved for the regional and local level at a level that is needed
in a way consistent with the Shared Environmental to define appropriate adaptation measures. It would
Information System for Europe SEIS (EC, 2008). be useful if European research projects were to adopt
GMES (Global Monitoring and Environmental the same contrasting set of climate scenarios for
Security, EC, 2004) projects could fill key data and global development, such as those used by IPCC, and
information gaps, along with the Environment and make use of regional climate projections as soon as
Health Information system (EHIS). The INSPIRE they become available. There will be a need both for
Directive will help to improve inter-operability, explorative research for the very long term (centuries)
harmonisation and access to data. It would be useful and for analysis of climate-change impacts in the
to have a European agreement on the definition of medium term (decades) for which better adaptation
key climate change indicators, including extreme actions urgently need to be developed. However,
weather events (for example 'floods' and 'droughts') despite uncertainties in existing climate change
and to define operational ways of tracking impacts scenarios, stakeholders will have to make decisions,
through multiple sectors, over a variety of time and which could then be further improved as more
geographic scales. detailed scenarios become available.

16 Impacts of Europe's changing climate — 2008 indicator-based assessment


Executive summary

More information on good practices and avoiding increasing amount of data and information
mal-adaptation on climate change impacts, vulnerability and
adaptation. A European clearing house on climate
Understanding of how to implement integration change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation could
of adaptation into sectoral policies should be make this information widely available to potential
further improved, particularly with regard to water users across Europe. The information could include
management, energy supply, biodiversity protection, data on observed and projected climate changes,
health and agriculture. Good practices should also information on vulnerable systems, indicators,
be developed to address the cross-sectoral and tools for impacts assessments, and good practice
transboundary nature of adaptation, in synergy with adaptation measures. Such a clearing house should
mitigation actions, in order to enhance resilience be developed and made consistent with the existing
across European countries, sectors, landscapes and European environmental data centres (on climate
communities. Future activities should also consider change, water, land use, biodiversity and air)
European neighbouring countries and overseas and information systems (European Community
territories. In addition, it is important to better Biodiversity Clearinghouse) that are currently
understand mal-adaptation e.g. by developing managed by EEA, by JRC (data centres on forestry
criteria (including social, environment, health and and soil), and the WHO (Climate, Environment and
economic aspects). Substantial work should also be Health Action and Information system, CEHAIS).
undertaken on better assessment of adaptation costs This clearing house could also effectively provide
across all sectors. important European information to international
organisations such as UNFCCC.
Develop information exchange mechanisms

Planned research programmes both at the national


and the European level will result in a rapidly

Table S.1 Observed (obs) and projected (scen) trends in climate and impacts for northern
(Arctic and boreal), temperate (maritime climate, central/eastern) and southern
(Mediterranean) regions of Europe

Northern Temperate Southern


Section Indicator Arctic and Maritime Central/ Mediterranean
boreal climate eastern
obs/scen obs/scen obs/scen obs/scen
5.2 Atmosphere and climate
5.2.2 Global and European temperature +/+ +/+ +/+ +/+
5.2.3 European precipitation +/+ +/o o/o –/–
5.2.4 Temperature extremes in Europe
5.2.4 Heat waves in Europe +/+ +/+ +/+ +/+
5.2.4 Number of days with frost –/– –/– –/– –/–
5.2.5 Precipitation extremes in Europe +/+ +/+ +/+ +/+
5.2.6 Storms and storm surges in Europe o/o o/+ o/o o/o
5.2.7 Air pollution by ozone o/+ +/+ +/+ +/+
5.3 Cryosphere
5.3.2 Glaciers –/– n.a./n.a. –/– –/–
5.3.3 Snow cover –/– –/– o/– +/–
5.3.4 Greenland ice sheet –/– n.a./n.a. n.a./n.a. n.a./n.a.
5.3.5 Arctic sea ice –/– n.a./n.a. n.a./n.a. n.a./n.a.
5.3.6 Mountain permafrost –/– –/– –/– –/–
5.4 Marine biodiversity and ecosystems
5.4.2 Sea-level rise +/+ +/+ +/+ +/+
5.4.3 Sea surface temperature +/+ +/+ +/+ +/+
5.4.4 Marine phenology +/+ +/+ n.a./n.a. n.a./n.a.
5.4.5 Northward movement of marine species +/n.a. +/n.a. n.a./n.a. n.a./n.a.

Impacts of Europe's changing climate — 2008 indicator-based assessment 17


Executive summary

Table S.1 Observed (obs) and projected (scen) trends in climate and impacts for northern
(Arctic and boreal), temperate (maritime climate, central/eastern) and southern
(Mediterranean) regions of Europe (cont.)

Northern Temperate Southern


Section Indicator Arctic and Maritime Central/ Mediterranean
boreal climate eastern
obs/scen obs/scen obs/scen obs/scen
5.5 Water quantity, river floods and droughts
5.5.2 River flow +/+ o/+ o/+ –/–
5.5.3 River floods (number of events) o/– +/+ +/+ o/+
5.5.4 River flow drought o/– o/+ o/– o/+
5.6 Freshwater quality and biodiversity
5.6.2 Water temperature +/+ +/+ +/+ +/+
5.6.3 Lake and river ice cover –/– –/– –/– –/–
5.6.4 Freshwater biodiversityand water quality +/+ +/+ +/+ +/+
.6.4 (north and upward shift of species)
5.6.4 Water quality n.a./– n.a./– n.a./– n.a./–
5.7 Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity
5.7.2 Distribution of plant species +/+ +/+ +/+ +/+
(north-/upward shift)
5.7.3 Plant phenology +/+ +/+ +/+ +/+
5.7.4 Distribution of animal species +/+ +/+ +/+ +/+
(north-/upward shift)
5.7.5 Animal phenology +/+ +/+ +/+ +/+
5.7.6 Species-ecosystem relationships –/– –/– –/– –/–
5.8 Soil
5.8.2 Soil organic carbon n.a./n.a n.a./n.a n.a./n.a n.a./n.a
5.8.3 Soil erosion by water n.a./n.a n.a./n.a n.a./n.a n.a./n.a
5.8.4 Water retention n.a./+ n.a./– n.a./– n.a./–
5.9 Agriculture and forestry
5.9.2 Growing season for agricultural crops +/+ +/+ +/+ +/+
5.9.3 Timing of the cycle of agricultural crops +/+ +/+ +/+ +/+
5.7.2 (agrophenology)
5.9.4 Crop-yield variability +/+ +/+ +/+ +/+
5.9.5 Water requirement n.a./n.a. –/n.a. –/n.a. +/n.a.
5.9.6 Forest growth +/+ +/+ +/+ +/+
5.9.7 Forest fire danger –/+ –/+ +/+ +/+
5.10 Human health
5.10.2 Heat and health +/+ +/+ +/+ +/+
5.10.3 Vector-borne diseases (case study) +/+ +/+ +/+ +/+
5.10.4 Water- and food-borne diseases n.a./+ +/+ +/+ +/+
7 Economic consequences of climate change
7.2 Direct losses from weather disasters +/+ +/+ +/+ +/+
7.3 Normalised losses from river flood +/– +/+ +/o +/o
disasters
7.4 Coastal areas (floods) n.a./+ n.a./+ n.a./+ n.a./+
7.5 Public water supply and drinking water n.a./o –/– n.a./o –/–
management
7.6 Agriculture and forestry (yield) n.a./+ n.a./– n.a./o n.a./–
7.7 Biodiversity and ecosystem goods and n.a./+ n.a./+ n.a./+ n.a./+
services (welfare losses)
7.8 Energy
7.8 Heating and cooling demand n.a./– n.a./o n.a./o n.a./+
7.8 Hydropower production n.a./+ n.a./– n.a./– n.a./–
7.9 Tourism and recreation (comfort index) n.a./+ n.a./– n.a./– n.a./–
7.10 Health (impacts) n.a./+ n.a./+ n.a./+ n.a./+
7.11 The costs of climate change for society n.a./+ n.a./+ n.a./+ n.a./+

+ = increasing; – = decreasing; o = no significant changes (or diverging trends within the region); n.a. = not available

18 Impacts of Europe's changing climate — 2008 indicator-based assessment


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Map S.1 Key past and projected impacts and effects on sectors for the main biogeographic
regions of Europe

-60° -50° -40° -30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 60° 70° 80° 90°

70°
Arctic
Decrease in Arctic sea ice coverage
Greenland ice sheet loss

Northern Europe (boreal region) 60°


European seas
Sea-level rise Less snow, lake and river ice cover
Higher sea surface temperatures Increased river flows
Northward movement of species Higher forest growth
Increase in phytoplankton biomass Higher crop yields
Higher risk for fish stocks Northward movement of species
More energy by hydropower
Lower energy consumption for heating
More (summer) tourism
Higher risk of damages by winter storms

60°
North-western Europe (maritime climate) Central and eastern Europe
Increase in winter precipitation More temperature extremes
Increase in river flow Less summer precipitation
Northward movement of freshwater species More river floods in winter
Higher risk of coastal flooding Higher water temperature
Higher crop yield variability
Increased forest fire danger
Lower forest stability
50°

Mountain areas
High temperature increase
Less glacier mass
Less mountain permafrost
50° Higher risk of rock falls
Upwards shift of plants and animals
Less ski tourism in winter
Higher soil erosion risk
High risk of species extinction

40°

40°

Mediterranean region
Decrease in annual precipitation 30°
Decrease in annual river flow
More forest fires
Lower crop yields
Increasing water demand for agriculture
30°
Higher risk for desertification
Less energy by hydropower
More deaths by heat waves
More vector-borne diseases
0 5 00 1000 1500 Km Less summer tourism
Higher risk of biodiversity loss
-10° 0° 10° 20° 30°

Main biogeografic regions of Europe (EEA member countries)

Arctic North-western Europe Mountain areas

Arctic — Greenland Central and eastern Europe Mediterranean region


(not EEA member)
Boreal region

Source: IPCC, 2007; EEA.

Impacts of Europe's changing climate — 2008 indicator-based assessment 19

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