Althoughadvancedeconomleshavelargelymet

expectatlonssofarlnzo:,developlngAslahasnot
achlevedthemomentumenvlsagedlntheAsian
Development Outlook .ThlsSupplementtrlms
o.percentagepolntsfromthereglonsgrowth
forecasts,to6.%lnzo:and6.(%lnzo:(.
|nthePeoplesPepubllcofChlna,aweaker-than-
expectedrsthalfoftheyearandtlghtercredlt
havedampenedgrowthexpectatlons,suchthatthe
economylsnowforecasttoexpandby;.;%lnzo:
and;.%lnzo:(.Thlshashadknock-onenectsfor
otherLastAslaneconomles.LastAslasgrowthls
revlseddownfrom;.:%to6.;%lnbothzo:andzo:(.
|n|ndla,slowlngxedcapltalformatlon,weak
lndustrlalactlvlty,andploddlngprogressonreform
arewelghlngontheeconomy,nowforecastto
expandby.8%lnzo:.SouthAslalspacedto
growby.6%lnzo:and6.z%lnzo:(.
SoutheastAslasstrongstarttotheyearlsbelng
temperedbyslowergrowthlnthePeoples
PepubllcofChlnaandcontlnuedweakdemand
fromadvancedeconomlesforltsexports.Theve
largesteconomleslntheAssoclatlonofSoutheast
AslanNatlonsarepolsedtogrowby.z%lnzo:
and.6%lnzo:(.
wlthsofterollprlcesandrelatlvelystablefood
prlces,lnnatlonlndeveloplngAslalsnowforecast
todlpto.%lnzo:.
Outlook for major industrial economies
Te Asian Development Outlook (ADO) envisaged
tepid giowth in the majoi industiial economies ovei
the foiecast hoiizon. Macioeconomic indicatois foi the
fist half of the yeai show gioss domestic pioduct (GDP)
iising in line with these expectations (Table :).
Te United States (US) is giowing modeiately,
despite fscal tightening theie. While Abenomics
stimulus is lifing Japans giowth somewhat above
ADO foiecasts, the lingeiing euio aiea contiaction is
geneiating slowei-than-expected giowth theie in :o:,.
Contingent upon Japans continued fastei pace, the
advanced economies may collectively exceed the ADO
foiecast of :.o to giow by :.: in :o:,. With the
euio aiea iecoveiing fiom its iecession and the US
stiengthening fuithei, :o: GDP giowth should meet
the ADO foiecast of :..
US GDP expanded at a seasonally adjusted
annualized iate of :.8 in the fist quaitei of this
yeai, somewhat less than in the same peiiod in :o::
but a maiked impiovement ovei the o. iecoided
in the fouith quaitei of :o::. Stiong consumei
Softening growth prospects for
developing Asia
Supplement
ASIAN DEVELOPMENT
Outlook
July 2013

AD8s Peglonal Lconomlc Outlook Task Porce led ln the preparatlon
of the revlsed outlook for thls ADO Supplement. The Task Porce ls
chalred by the Lconomlcs and Pesearch Department and lncludes
representatlves from the Central and west Asla Department, Last
Asla Department, Paclc Department, Omce of Peglonal Lconomlc
|ntegratlon, South Asla Department, and Southeast Asla Department.
Table 1 Baseline GDP growth (%)
2012 2013 2014
ADO
2013
Revised ADO
2013
Revised
Major industrial economies
a
1.1 1.0 1.1 1.9 1.9
United States
2.2 2.0 2.0 2.6 2.6
Euro area 0.6 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.2
Japan 1.9 1.2 1.8 1.4 1.4
ADO = Asian Development Outlook, GDP = gross domestic product.
a
Average growth rates are weighed by GNI, Atlas method (current US dollars).
Sources: Asian Development Bank. . Asian Development Outlook . Manlla;
ADB estimates.
spending, investment in iesidential housing, and
inventoiy accumulation ofset the diag fiom declining
goveinment spending.
Signs aie that stiength in iesidential housing
stietched into the second quaitei. As of Apiil :o:,,
the house piice index had incieased ovei the pievious
month continuously since Januaiy :o::. Housing staits
in ApiilMay :o:, weie up moie than :o fiom a
yeai eailiei. Laboi maikets have also impioved, with
,8,ooo jobs added in the second quaitei of :o:,,
though the unemployment iate iemained at ,.o in
June as woikfoice paiticipation ticked up.
Industiial pioduction has been impioving,
expanding by :.o in May :o:, ovei the pievious yeai.
Howevei, the puichasing manageis index hoveied
aiound ,o thioughout the second quaitei, indicating
neithei expansion noi contiaction in manufactuiing.
Despite some positive signs, the efect of fscal
tighteningbudget sequestiation togethei with
incieases in payioll taxes and the tax iate on high
income eaineismay yet slow consumption giowth in
the months ahead. As such, foiecasts foi US GDP have
been lef unchanged fiom the ADO piojections, at
:.o in :o:, and :.o in :o:.
Euio aiea GDP continues to contiact, but with
easing seveiity. In the fist quaitei of :o:,, seasonally
adjusted annualized GDP giowth in Geimany was a
weak o.,, while output in Fiance, Italy, and Spain
declined fuithei. Retail sales in May iose by :.o fiom
Apiil, afei falling in the pievious , months. Industiial
pioduction in Apiil incieased by a seasonally adjusted
o. in the euio aiea, mainly on account of Geimany
(:.:) and Fiance (:.,), but pioduction fuithei
declined in Italy (o.,). Te June manufactuiing
puichasing manageis index in the euio aiea impioved
to 8.8, its highest level since Febiuaiy :o::, consistent
with an easing pace of GDP contiaction in the second
quaitei.
To help bolstei the fagging economy, the Euiopean
Cential Bank loweied its inteiest iate on main
iefnancing opeiations fiom o.,, to o.,o on 8 May
:o:, and is expected to maintain this lowei iate in
the months ahead. Howevei, in ciisis countiies with
impaiied tiansmission mechanisms, low cential bank
iefnancing iates aie having little impact, as aveiage
bank lending iates in May on new business loans of up
to c: million weie as high as ., in Spain and ,., in
Italy. Loan giowth is likely to iemain subdued as banks
incieasingly iely on shoit-teim funding and thus aie
ieluctant to extend long-teim loans.
Euio aiea unemployment ieached a seasonally
adjusted ::.: in May, up fiom ::.o in Apiil and
Maich :o:,. Te unemployment iate incieased in Spain
to :o. and in Italy to ::.:, but declined in Geimany
to ,., and steadied in Fiance at :o..
Looking ahead, economic activity is expected
to pick up in the second half of :o:,, with exteinal
demand and thus net tiade counteiing the efects of
weak inteinal demand. Howevei, in light of the weakei-
than-expected fist quaitei, the foiecast foi annual
euio aiea GDP giowth in :o:, has been ievised down
fiom o., in the ADO to o.,. Tis impiovement
fiom o.o in :o:: is expected to extend into :o: and
stiengthen, such that the euio aiea should achieve the
ADO foiecast of :.:.
In Japan, the package of monetaiy and fscal
iefoims dubbed Abenomics seems to be beaiing fiuit.
On the back of iobust piivate consumption, GDP giew
in the fist quaitei at double the seasonally adjusted
annualized iate assumed in the ADO: .: iathei than
:.o. In May, industiial pioduction iose by a seasonally
adjusted annualized iate of :.o ovei the pievious
month, doubling the o. inciease in Apiil. Te
puichasing manageis index has impioved steadily fiom
,o. in Maich :o:, to ,:.: in Apiil and ,:., in June.
Te Tankan suivey of business conditions is iepoiting
optimism among manufactuieis, who now expect
coipoiate piofts to expand this yeai.
Unemployment is at its lowest since Octobei :oo8:
.: in May :o:,. Consumei confdence has wobbled
somewhat in iecent months but iemains above its
mid-:o:: levels. Revived consumption has also pushed
up impoit demand, widening the tiade defcit to s8.
billion in Apiil :o:, fiom s,. billion a yeai eailiei.
Despite stiong fist quaitei giowth, some indicatois
point to volatile economic conditions ahead. Coie
machineiy oideis, a leading indicatoi of capital
spending in the next ,o months, impioved maikedly
in Maich but diopped shaiply in Apiil. Te value
of the yen has swung wildly against the US dollai,
depieciating to \:o: pei dollai on May :: befoie
appieciating again shaiply to beyond \, on June :,.
When the Nikkei index plummeted by ,., on :, May
:o:,, the stock maiket saw its laigest single-day decline
since the :oo8 global fnancial ciisis.
All in all, Japans iecoveiy is expected to pick
up momentum as impiovement in coipoiate piofts
bolsteis household income and business investment, as
expoits pick up, and as the efects of Abenomics take
ioot. In view of the stiong fist quaitei, the :o:, giowth
foiecasts aie ievised up fiom :.: in the ADO to
:.8. Howevei, the impending value-added tax iate
inciease is cause to maintain the ADO giowth foiecast
foi :o: at :..
Regional Economic Outlook
Growth outlook
Developing Asia had dim culty building momentum
in the fist half of :o:,, despite the maiginally bettei
outlook foi the advanced economies. Te iegion was
expected to bounce back fiom its ielatively sluggish
o.: giowth pace in :o::, but it is now foiecast to pick
up only slightly to o., in :o:, and o. in :o:, a o.,
peicentage point ieduction fiom ADO foiecasts
(Table :). Although the downwaid ievision to giowth
foiecasts foi the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) is
a key factoi undeilying the aggiegate, unexpectedly
subdued economic activity cuts acioss subiegions.
In East Asia, the PRCs weakei-than-expected
GDP giowth of ,., yeai on yeai in the fist quaitei
of :o:, and ,., in the second quaitei points to
slow but peisistent giowth deceleiation. In May,
industiial pioduction expanded by a modeiate .:,
and investment giowth also weakened. Tuibulence in
the domestic inteibank maiket in late June elevated
funding costs (paiticulaily foi nonbank fnance) and
made fnancial institutions moie aveise to iisk. Tis
could fuithei weaken investment in the iemaindei
of the yeai, undeimining giowth at least in the shoit
teim. On the upside, consumption is expected to
suppoit giowth as consumei confdence iemains high
and ietail sales aie picking up. Tis view is bolsteied
by continued wage giowth in ieal teims and stiong
employment despite slackening economic giowth.
Impoits and expoits both saw giowth deceleiate
substantially, paitly because of a ciackdown on ovei-
invoicing tiade fows to Taipei,China and Hong Kong,
China to skiit capital contiols. Expoit giowth will
likely iemain sof as weak global activity and the
stiengthening ienminbi weigh on exteinal demand.
Meanwhile, weakei domestic demand foi capital
goods and high-end consumei goods will be a diag on
impoits. Taken togethei, giowth in the PRC is ievised
downwaid fiom 8.: to ,., in :o:, and fiom 8.o to
,., in :o:.
Te slowei PRC economy coupled with weak
exteinal demand fiom majoi industiial economies
continue to stymie giowth in most of East Asia,
paiticulaily in Hong Kong, China; Mongolia; and
Taipei,China. Giowth in Mongolia in the fist quaitei
of :o:, biaked to ,.: yeai on yeai in line with
the ietuin of slowei giowth in the PRC and falling
commodity piices. Hong Kong, China lost momentum
in the fist quaitei of :o:, as the fiagile inteinational
tiading enviionment held GDP giowth to a scant
o.: seasonally adjusted, quaitei on quaitei teims.
In Taipei,China, piospects aie dimming following the
ielease of weak fist quaitei data, and this is expected
to continue until the second half of the yeai. In
contiast, fist quaitei giowth in the Republic of Koiea
exceeded maiket expectations, lifed by constiuction
investment, plant equipment investment, and expoits.
Oveiall giowth in East Asia has been ievised down
fiom ,.: to o., in both :o:, and :o:.
South Asias laigest economy, India, is expected
to see giowth modeiate to ,.8 in :o:, against the
eailiei piojection of o.o. While this is highei than the
,.o posted in :o::, giowth iemains constiained by
supply-side bottlenecks, as iefected in the continued
slowdown in fxed capital foimation, weakness in the
industiial sectoi, and sluggish piogiess in pushing
thiough badly needed stiuctuial iefoims. Howevei,
giowth in India is expected to acceleiate in :o: as
slowei infation piovides some scope foi monetaiy
easing that could boost investment and consumption.
Giowth will be fuithei boosted by pie-election
spending, and the pickup in US giowth will suppoit
Indian tech companies and ielated seivice sectois.
Te Sii Lankan economy is foiecast to giow by
o.8 in :o:, on the back of a stiong peifoimance in
Table 2 GDP growth, developing Asia (%)
2012 2013 2014
ADO
2013
Revised ADO
2013
Revised
Developing Asia 6.1 6.6 6.3 6.7 6.4
Central Asia
5.6 5.5 5.3 6.0 6.0
East Asia
6.5 7.1 6.7 7.1 6.7
China, Peoples Rep. of
7.8 8.2 7.7 8.0 7.5
South Asia
5.0 5.7 5.6 6.2 6.2
India
5.0 6.0 5.8 6.5 6.5
Southeast Asia
5.6 5.4 5.2 5.7 5.6
ASEAN-5
5.6 5.4 5.2 5.7 5.6
The Pacic 7.6 5.2 5.0 5.5 5.5
ADOAslanDevelopmentOutlook,ASLANAssoclatlonofSoutheastAslanNatlons.
Note:Developing Asiarefersto45developlngmembercountrlesoftheAslan
Development8ank.Central AsiacomprlsesArmenla,Azerbal[an,Georgla,
Kazakhstan,theKyrgyzPepubllc,Ta[lklstan,Turkmenlstan,andUzbeklstan.East
AsiacomprlsesthePeoplesPepubllcofChlna,HongKong,Chlna,thePepubllc
ofKorea,Mongolla,andTalpel,Chlna.South AsiacomprlsesAfghanlstan,
8angladesh,8hutan,|ndla,theMaldlves,Nepal,Paklstan,andSrlLanka.
Southeast AsiacomprlsestheASLAN-5(|ndonesla,Malaysla,thePhlllpplnes,
Thalland,andvletNam)plus8runelDarussalam,Cambodla,theLaoPeoples
DemocratlcPepubllc,Myanmar,andSlngapore.The PaciccomprlsesCook
|slands,Pl[l,Klrlbatl,theMarshall|slands,thePederatedStatesofMlcronesla,Nauru,
PapuaNewGulnea,Palau,Samoa,Solomon|slands,Tlmor-Leste,Tonga,Tuvalu,
andvanuatu.
Sources: Asian Development Bank. . Asian Development Outlook . Manlla;
ADB estimates.
the fist quaitei of the yeai. Healthy giowth in :o:,
and acceleiation to ,.: in :o: will be suppoited
by fuithei monetaiy easing and impioved electiicity
geneiation that will powei giowth in domestic
industiy. By contiast, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal,
and Pakistan aie expected to iepoit sofei giowth
in :o:, than in :o::, as some of these countiies face
political tiansitions that could hampei economic
policy making. Te South Asia subiegion is expected to
expand by ,.o in :o:, (maiginally less than the ADO
piojection of ,.,) and pick up momentum to post
o.: giowth in :o:.
Southeast Asias economic giowth was geneially
solid in the fist quaitei of :o:,. Te Philippines
achieved stiongei-than-expected GDP giowth of ,.8
yeai on yeai, as domestic demand was buoyed by
acceleiated public and piivate investment and stable
iemittance infows. Indonesias domestic demand
continues to be stiong, diiven by piivate consumption
and both piivate and public investment, with GDP
giowing by o.o yeai on yeai. Tailands economic
giowth modeiated to ,., yeai on yeai in the fist
quaitei, coming of a iapid :o:: pace that laigely
iefected iecoveiy fiom foods in :o::. Malaysias
economic giowth slowed on weakei exteinal demand
and modeiating domestic demand. Te iest of the
subiegion is holding up ielatively well, except that
Singapoies open economy giew by only o.: yeai on
yeai in the fist quaitei of :o:,. Capital outfows fiom
the subiegion have fueled stock maiket volatility, but
the ieal sectoi has so fai been laigely unafected. With
the sofei outlook foi the PRC, giowth foiecasts foi
Southeast Asia have been tiimmed fiom ,. to ,.:
in :o:, and fiom ,., to ,.o in :o:. Although less
iapid than envisaged in the ADO, aggiegate giowth
in the ASEAN-, (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines,
Tailand, and Viet Nam, the fve laigest economies
in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) will
continue to be solid at ,.: in :o:, and ,.o in :o:.
In Cential Asia, as in othei subiegions, giowth is
modeiating. Te aggiegate giowth piojection foi the
subiegion is ievised down fiom ,., to ,., in :o:,
befoie edging up to o.o in :o:, as foiecast in the
ADO. Te ievision in :o:, iefects sluggish economic
peifoimance in Kazakhstan and Geoigia, outweighing
stiongei-than-expected giowth in the Kyigyz Republic.
In Kazakhstan, industiial pioduction giew by a modest
:.8 in the fist o months of :o:, (compaied with :.:
in the same peiiod of :o::), as agiicultuie also giew
slowly and constiuction diagged. Expoits of oil aie
stagnant, and those of metals and giains aie diopping.
Giowth may iecovei in :o:, when the Kashagan oil
feld is to be commissioned. In Geoigia, upcoming
piesidential elections aie cieating policy and political
unceitainty that is slowing investment as investois shif
to a wait-and-see attitude. Fastei giowth is anticipated
in :o:. Meanwhile, the Kyigyz Republic posted stiong
giowth of 8. yeai on yeai in the fist , months of
:o:,, with industiial pioduction giowing by :: as
output fiom the Kumtoi goldmine iesumed.
Te Pacifc appeais to be slowing moie than
anticipated in ADO . Regional giowth is now
piojected to modeiate fiom ,.o in :o:: to ,.o in
:o:,, oi o.: peicentage points below eailiei foiecasts.
Unexpectedly low goveinment capital spending in
Timoi-Leste and lowei gold pioduction in Solomon
Islands diive the ievision. Although Papua New
Guinea, the laigest developing economy in the Pacifc,
is on tiack to achieve ADO giowth foiecasts, lowei
piices foi expoit commodities piesent cleai downside
iisks foi goveinment stimulus that was meant to
suppoit giowth following the completion of a liquefed
natuial gas pipeline. In contiast, the Fijian economy is
showing signs of picking up as planned infiastiuctuie
development moves ahead, and consumption and
investment also appeai to be on the iise, lending an
upwaid bias to foiecasts theie. Giowth piojections
foi most of the smallei economies of the Pacifc
iemain unchanged foi :o:,, except foi Kiiibati, wheie
infiastiuctuie investment is delayed, and Nauiu, which
is weighed by heightened political iisks and weakei
phosphate expoit piospects. A moie positive global
economic outlook is expected to spill ovei into the
Pacifc and acceleiate giowth in the iegion to ,.,
in :o:, in line with ADO piojections. Buoying this
upbeat piojection aie the stait of liquefed natuial gas
expoits fiom Papua New Guinea and post-cyclone
ieconstiuction and infiastiuctuie woik in a few
smallei Pacifc island states.
Ination outlook
Slow GDP giowth in the iegion is helping to contain
demand-side infationaiy piessuie in developing Asia.
At the same time, commodity piices aie set to decline at
a fastei pace than anticipated in the ADO. Te giowth
slowdown in developing Asia and othei emeiging
maikets, along with continued sofness in the majoi
industiial economies, is suppiessing demand foi eneigy,
while stiong haivests aie keeping food piices in check.
Afei topping s::o pei baiiel in mid-Febiuaiy
:o:,, the piice of Bient ciude ieveised couise and
fell to a low of s8 in mid-Apiilits lowest since July
:o::. Beaiish maiket sentiment pievailed thiough the
second quaitei against the backdiop of weakening
global demand. Although political tensions in the
Middle East have pushed up oil piices in iecent weeks,
oil futuies suggest that the maiket expects Bient ciude
AslanDevelopment8ank|S8N978-92-9254-l75-0 (PDP)PubllcatlonStockNo.PPTl35856-3
About the Asian Development Bank
AD8svlslonlsanAslaandPaclcreglonfreeofpoverty.|tsmlsslonlstohelpltsdeveloplngmembercountrlesreducepovertyandlmprovethe
qualltyofllfeofthelrpeople.Despltethereglonsmanysuccesses,ltremalnshometotwo-thlrdsoftheworldspoor:l.7bllllonpeoplewhollveon
lessthan$2aday,wlth828mllllonstruggllngonlessthan$l.25aday.AD8lscommlttedtoreduclngpovertythroughlncluslveeconomlcgrowth,
envlronmentallysustalnablegrowth,andreglonallntegratlon.
8asedlnManlla,AD8lsownedby67members,lncludlng48fromthereglon.|tsmalnlnstrumentsforhelplngltsdeveloplngmembercountrlesare
pollcydlalogue,loans,equltylnvestments,guarantees,grants,andtechnlcalasslstance.
AslanDevelopment8ank
6AD8Avenue,MandaluyongClty
l550MetroManlla,Phlllpplnes
www.adb.org
piices to fall back to aiound s:o: in :o:. Expanded
natuial gas pioduction globally is contiibuting to the
sofening of eneigy piices.
Te Woild Bank index of food commodity piices
fell foi the fouith stiaight month in June, putting piices
:. below a yeai eailiei. Giain haivests in most majoi
pioducing countiies aie expected to exceed those of last
yeai. Te Food and Agiicultuie Oiganization sees food
commodity maikets, in paiticulai ceieals, to be moie
balanced in the :o:,/: agiicultuial season. It expects,
foi example, wheat pioduction to be o., highei than
in :o::/:, as pioduction iecoveis in diought-afected
aieas of Euiope and Cential Asia. Piices foi iice, a key
consumei commodity in developing Asia, have been
ielatively stable, even ietieating somewhat fiom theii
:o::/:, levels as pioduction is spuiied by subsidies in
laige expoiteis such as India and Tailand.
With expected declines in commodity piices and
deceleiating giowth, infationaiy piessuies within
developing Asia will be geneially less acute than
anticipated in the ADO . Infation in the PRC
aveiaged :. in the fist o months of :o:,, well
below the foiecast ,.: foi the yeai as a whole. India
has benefted fiom a favoiable monsoon that pushed
down domestic food piices, such that oveiall piice
incieases should aveiage o., this yeai. Foi the iegion
as a whole, infation is foiecast to aveiage ,., in :o:,
and ,., in :o:, half a peicentage point of of ADO
foiecasts (Table ,). Te ASEAN-, appeai to buck this
tiend of sofei-than-expected piice piessuies, but
this anomaly iefects a inciease in subsidized
fuel piices in Indonesia in June :o:, that is pushing
up consumei piices theie. Infation in Malaysia, the
Philippines, Tailand, and Viet Nam is expected to be
at oi below ADO piojections.
Table 3 Ination, developing Asia (%)
2012 2013 2014
ADO
2013
Revised ADO
2013
Revised
Developing Asia 3.7 4.0 3.5 4.2 3.7
Central Asia
5.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.8
East Asia
2.6 3.1 2.4 3.3 2.7
China, Peoples Rep. of
2.6 3.2 2.5 3.5 2.7
South Asia
7.9 7.4 6.7 7.1 6.9
India
7.4 7.2 6.5 6.8 6.6
Southeast Asia
3.9 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.2
ASEAN-5
3.6 4.0 4.2 3.8 4.0
The Pacic 5.3 6.1 5.7 6.3 5.9
ADOAslanDevelopmentOutlook,ASLANAssoclatlonofSoutheastAslanNatlons.
Note:Developing Asiarefersto45developlngmembercountrlesoftheAslan
Development8ank.Central AsiacomprlsesArmenla,Azerbal[an,Georgla,
Kazakhstan,theKyrgyzPepubllc,Ta[lklstan,Turkmenlstan,andUzbeklstan.East
AsiacomprlsesthePeoplesPepubllcofChlna,HongKong,Chlna,thePepubllc
ofKorea,Mongolla,andTalpel,Chlna.South AsiacomprlsesAfghanlstan,
8angladesh,8hutan,|ndla,theMaldlves,Nepal,Paklstan,andSrlLanka.Southeast
AsiacomprlsestheASLAN-5(|ndonesla,Malaysla,thePhlllpplnes,Thalland,
andvletNam)plus8runelDarussalam,Cambodla,theLaoPeoplesDemocratlc
Pepubllc,Myanmar,andSlngapore.The PaciccomprlsesCook|slands,Pl[l,
Klrlbatl,theMarshall|slands,thePederatedStatesofMlcronesla,Nauru,PapuaNew
Gulnea,Palau,Samoa,Solomon|slands,Tlmor-Leste,Tonga,Tuvalu,andvanuatu.
Sources: Asian Development Bank. . Asian Development Outlook . Manlla;
ADB estimates.