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Political Report
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Volume 9, Issue 9 October 2013

Deeply Troubling Trends

In the pages of AEIs Political Report we have looked many times at peoples views of the government in Washington. What we havent done in recent years, however, is look at the long-term trends on the subject. The charts here do just that. They show a sharp drop in views about virtually every aspect of governance. The publics responses to Gallups questions about trust in the federal government to handle international and domestic problems are at the lowest levels ever, with especially steep drops in the past decade. Today attitudes are strongly colored by partisan affiliation. Even so, there has been a sharp drop in Democrats confidence in the governments ability to handle domestic affairs since the beginning of President Obamas administration, from 74 percent in 2009 to 58 percent today.
Q: How much trust and confidence do you have in our federal government in Washington when it comes to . . . ?
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2013

A great deal/Fair amount of trust and confidence in the federal government when it comes to handling

75% 70% International problems

Domestic problems

49% 42%

A great deal/Fair amount of trust and confidence in the federal government when it comes to handling Responses of Democrats Republicans Independents International problems 2013 71% 35 42 2009 2007 78% 51 56 38% 81 43 Domestic problems 2013 58% 29 37 2009 2007 74% 35 41 38% 66 45

Source: Gallup, latest that of September 2013.

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Deep Dissatisfaction and Growing Anger

Only a third of respondents are satisfied with the way the nation is being governed today, while around two-thirds are dissatisfied. Anger is not an emotion we see very often in public opinion polls, but today around a quarter in ABC News/ Washington Post polls report that they are angry about the way the federal government works. In a September 2013 Pew poll not shown here, 17 percent said they were basically content with the federal government, 51 percent frustrated, and 26 percent angry. In October 1997, twelve percent in the Pew poll said they were angry.
Q: On the whole, would you say you are . . . ?
80%

70%

Satised with the way the nation is being governered

60%

67%

50%

54%

40%

37%

Dissatised 32%

30%

20%

10% 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Source: Gallup, latest that of September 2013.

Q: I am going to mention four phrases and ask which one best describes how you feel about the way the federal government works. Do you feel . . . ?
Source: ABC/Washington Post, latest that of September 2012.

70%

60%

60%

Satised, but not enthusiastic

Dissatised, but not angry

50%

44%
40%

30%

20%
20%

27% 25%

Angry
17%

10%

1%

Enthusiastic

4%

0% 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

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Government and Peoples Lives

In the latest polls, nearly two-thirds of Americans say the government in Washington has a negative impact on peoples lives and only 13 percent describe the impact as positive. Two-thirds say they have just a little or no confidence at all that when the government in Washington decides to solve a problem, it will actually be solved.
Q: These days, what kind of impact do you think . . . ?
70%

64%
60%

Government has a positive impact on most people's lives

Negative impact

50%

45%
40%

33%
30%

20%

Doesn't have much impact

10%

17% 13%

13%

0% Aug-96

Oct-97

Dec-98

Feb-00

Apr-01

Jun-02

Aug-03

Oct-04

Dec-05

Feb-07

Apr-08

Jun-09

Aug-10

Oct-11

Source: CBS/New York Times, latest that of October 2011.

Q: Do you think the government can have . . . ? A positive impact on most peoples lives Feb. 1996 87% Aug. 1996 89 Feb. 1997 88 Jan. 1998 87
Note: In both surveys in 1996, the sample was registered voters. Source: CBS News, August 1996, February 1997; CBS/New York Times, September 1996, January 1998.

Q: In general, how much do you think . . . ? The federal government helps people like you A lot 17% A little 56 Not at all 26
Source: Public Religion Research Institute, JuneJuly 2013.

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Government Has Too Much Power and Its Wasteful

Throughout our history, Americans have been skeptical about government power, but recent trends show greater concern than in the past. Six in ten people say that 60 cents of every dollar collected by Washington in taxes are wasted. In a 1979 Gallup question, four in ten gave that response.
Q: Do you think the federal government today . . . ?
60%

52%
50%

Federal government today has too much power

60%

40%

39%

About the right amount

30%

32%

20%

10%

7%

Too little

7%
Jul-2008 Sep-2009 Nov-2010 Jan-2012 Mar-2013

0% Sep-2002

Nov-2003

Jan-2005

Mar-2006

May-2007

Source: Gallup, latest that of September 2013.

Q: For every dollar you pay in federal taxes, about how many cents do you think are wasted by the government?
60

Mean (in cents) 50.6 42.4 44.9 41.4 44.3 38.2 45.9

60

50

49.7

40

39.8

Cents

30

20

10

1979

1981

1981

1981

1984

1986

2001

2011

2009

2013

Source: Reason/Rupe, September 2013. Gallup, 19792011.

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More Government or Less?

The questions in this section ask whether government should be doing more or less. The CBS/New York Times and Gallup trends shown here show a preference for smaller government in the abstract, although four in ten want government to do more. Specific questions about government programs almost always show people are reluctant to cut much of anything. As the polls on the next page demonstrate, a consistent 20 percent want government to do more even if it means more taxes.
Q: If you had to choose, would you rather have . . . ?
70%

60%

Smaller government providing fewer services 44% 51%

50%

40%

40% 40%

30%

Bigger government providing more services

20% Apr-76 Oct-78 Apr-81 Oct-83 Apr-86 Oct-88 Apr-91 Oct-93 Apr-96 Oct-98 Apr-01 Oct-03 Apr-06 Oct-08 Apr-11 Sep-13

Note: Question wording from 1976 to 1989 included the preface, In general, government grows bigger as it provides more services at the beginning of the question. Source: CBS/New York Times, latest that of September 2013.

Q: Which comes closer to your own view?

70%

60%

Government is trying to do too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses 53%

50%

49% 45% 40% Government should do more to solve our country's problems

40%

30%

20% 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: Gallup, latest that of September 2013.

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Q: Would you rather have . . . ?

More government services if that meant more taxes
60%

Less government services in order to reduce taxes 56% Services and taxes about as we have them now

50%

47% 40% 35% 26% 20% 16% 20% 29%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

September 1993

September 2011

September 2013

Source: Gallup.

Q: Next, Id like you to think more broadly about the purposes of government. Where would you rate yourself on a scale 1 to 5 . . . ? 5 Government should take active steps in every area it can to try and improve the lives of its citizens 4 3 Midpoint 2 1 Government should provide only the most basic functions
Source: Gallup, September 2013.

2010 19% 15 33 15 18

2011 21% 14 27 18 19

2013 19% 15 33 16 16

Q: Which comes closer to your own opinion . . . ? The less government the better There are more things government should be doing
Source: Reason/Rupe, September 2013.

51% 44

AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; Michael Barone, Resident Fellow. Research Assistants: Jennifer Marsico, Editor; Andrew Rugg, Editor. Interns: Madeline Glista; Kate Wildman.

1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org

Sources of the Problem: Parties and Political Divisions

More than half say the federal government needs major reform, and half feel the political system needs a major shake-up. Gallup reports that from 19721976, 66 percent of Americans on average said they had a great deal or a fair amount of trust in the men and women holding or seeking political office . . . That compares with an average of 56 percent trust since 1997. Today, 46 percent have high confidence.
Q: When Congress cant get things done is it . . . ? Mainly because . . . The political parties have grown so far apart that they cant agree on solutions A few members of Congress who refuse to compromise keep things from getting done
Source: Pew Research Center, September 2013.

48% 36

Q: Which comes closer to your view about political division in Washington these days even if neither is exactly right . . . ? Growing political divisions . . . Among elected offices reflect a more divided American society Are mostly among elected officials and not American society more broadly
Source: Pew Research Center, September 2013.

Q: Who do you blame for gridlock in Washington . . . ? Blame for the gridlock Democrats 10% Republicans Both equally

28 58

41% 44

Note: Registered voters. Source: Quinnipiac, September 2013.

Sources of the Problem: Congressional Gridlock

Q: Please tell me whether you . . . ? Congress passes Too few laws 56% 40 34% 62 28 The wrong kinds of laws 67% Too many laws Agree Disagree

Source: Reason/Rupe, September 2013.

Q: As you may know, members of Congress disagree about how much the federal government should spend. Which of the following statements comes closest to your own opinion about why they disagree . . . ? Because the Americans they represent disagree about how much the federal government should spend Because members of Congress are out of touch with their constituents on this issue
Source: Reason/Rupe, September 2013.

28% 63

Q: Next, we have a question about the best approach for political leaders to follow in Washington. Where would you rate yourself on a scale of 1 to 5 . . . ? 2010 2011 2013 5 More important to stick to beliefs 14% 15% 14% 4 13 13 11 3 Midpoint 24 21 20 2 16 20 18 1 More important to compromise 31 31 35
Source: Gallup, latest that of September 2013.

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Solving the Problem

Q: Which of these statements comes closest to your view? The federal government needs major reform The federal government is basically sound and needs only some reform The federal government doesnt need much change at all
Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of March 2010.

March 2010 53% 42 3

October 1997 37% 58 4

Q: In your opinion . . . does our political system need a major shake-up or do you think that our political system . . . ? September 2013 Political system needs a major shake-up Is basically sound and only needs some reform
Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of September 2013.

October November 1995 1991 50% 48% 35% 43 48 62

Faith in the Problem Solvers

Q: When the government in Washington decides to solve a problem, how much confidence do you have that the problem actually will be solved? 2010 1991 A lot of confidence the problem will be solved 4% 7% Some 29 31 Just a little 35 38 None at all 31 23
Note: Not all askings are shown. Question wording varied slightly. Source: ABC/Washington Post, 1991 and Hart Research Associates/Center for American Progress, 2010.

Q: How much trust and confidence do you have in general in men and women in political life in this country who either hold or are running for public office . . . ? 2013 1972 Have a great deal/fair amount of confidence in men and women in political life in this country who either hold or are running for public office 46% 65% Not much/none at all 52 32
Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of September 2013.

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