Project proposal Calculation of flooding zone for climate change scenarios and sea level rise to establish a safe

corridor for sustainable development of Phu Quoc Island

1.

Overview

Phu Quoc Island is a district in Kien Giang province located in the southwest coast of Vietnam. Phu Quoc district includes the land and the sea, having a strategically important position in the economic development of maritime security and defense. Phu Quoc Island is famous as a major fishing grounds and aquaculture resources and aquatic biodiversity. The Island is also famous as a tourism destination, especially ecotourism which are interested by many domestic and foreign tourists. Climate change and sea level rise have the potential to change the natural conditions, also the diversity of the marine life, affecting the development of the economic social development of Kien Giang province in general and Phu Quoc Islands in particular. The direct effect is on the production of agriculture, forestry and fisheries. Beside, climate change and sea lever rise also narrow areas of natural landscape, ecological degradation and biodiversity, reducing the appeal of tourism activities. According to Nguyen Ngoc Thuy (1995), in coastal Vietnam, the sea level increases on average 2 mm / year. The results of monitoring at Phu Quy station showed that the speed of sea level rise in the region is 2.3 mm / year. According to the data of 126 stations along the coast of Vietnam, sea levels rise is from 1 to 2 mm / year. According to the experts, sea level will rise from 0.2 to 0.4 m in 50 years and about 0.5 - 1 meter in the next 100 years. According to calculations of scientists, when 1m sea level rise, the scope of its impact will be on the low lands that have absolute height below 10m. If the sea level rise is 0.5 m, Kien Giang province will only remain 17.63% of the area; If it is 1m, Kien Giang province only remains 6.51% of the land that jut out of the water. For Phu Quoc island district, the direct effects of rising sea levels is the loss of land in the coastal low lands as Cua Duong Dong, Thay streams, Ham canal gates; and in the future, it will affect to all of the coastal low lands around the island of Phu Quoc. The next is the decline of biodiversity, affecting food security, water security and energy security and disrupt, interfere in the economic social activities. Indirect impacts of rising sea levels are to promote the development of the erosion hazard, salinity and pollution. Therefore, the study of the impact of sea level rise on coastal

areas play an important role in planning the use of natural resources and social management as well as the orientation of economic development in a sustainable way. Currently, for Phu Quoc Island, Kien Giang Province and other provinces in the Mekong Delta, we are beginning to put the issue to cope with climate change and sea level rise. So we need to investigate the impact of climate change and develop a plan to strengthen the capacity and ability to cope with and adapt to climate change conditions and sea level rise by the territory integrated management solutions, especially in the coastal zone. This research is of practical needs and real urgency. 2. Objective - Calculating flooding zone for climate change scenarios and sea level rise to develop safe corridors for the sustainable development of Phu Quoc island district, serving the economic development, high quality tourism service. - Assessing and forecasting the influence of sea level rise to natural environment and ecosystem sea areas and coastal islands of Phu Quoc; proposing the solution to minimize and adapt. 3. The main contents Content 1: Gather databases and surveys on: meteorological, oceanographic, waves, currents, oceans - island topography of Phu Quoc, the evolution of climate change, status quo and planning the economic social development. Content 2: Survey and assess the status of environmental factors, the ecosystem which sensitive to the effects of climate change and sea level rise, evaluate the sensitivity, environmental damage and ecological systems in the new circumstances. Content 3: Calculate and build a flood zoning map for the scenarios of climate change and sea level rise, building safety corridors for planning the economic social development. - Evaluate, process datas of sea level change in coastal stations, estuaries and islands in 20 30 - 50 years of Phu Quoc Island. - Analyse, calculate the speed of sea level rise and predict the scenarios of sea level rise for the period of 2020, 2050 and 2100. - Map the flood zoning and sea level rise scenarios to plan the sustainable development, coping with climate change. - Integrated study and forecast causes of sea level rise in the study area. - Construct safety corridors for planning economic social development according to the sea level rise scenarios, serving sustainable development.

Content 4: Evaluate loss of environmental resources and ecological under the scenarios of sea level rise. - Analyse and evaluate to assess the impact of losses due to sea level rise for the natural environment of Phu Quoc island district in 2030, 2050 and 2100. - Analyse and evaluate to assess the impact of losses due to sea level rise for the economic - social and public health. - Analyse and evaluate to assess the impact of losses due to climate change for environmental resources, social - ecnonomic, public health of Phu Quoc Island. Content 5: Propose strategies and solutions to mitigate, adapt and cope with the rising sea scenario. - Propose mitigation strategies, adapt and respond to scenarios of sea level rise. - Propose solution strategies, adapt and respond to scenarios of sea level rise. 4. Outputs - The full database of meteorology, currents, waves and sea-island topographic of Phu Quoc Island and the data on the current state of environmental factors, the ecosystem sensitivity to sea level rise will be collected. The results of the analysis, calculation and evaluation of environmental changes and ecosystems under scenarios of climate change and rising sea levels. - Thematic reports: + Status of natural conditions (climate, topography, soil and land use status, habitat, biodiversity), status of natural environment (soil, water, sediment sea, air and radiation environment); status of environmental ecological; forecasting climate change and the ecology of Phu Quoc island district. + The results of the environmental changes and ecosystems assesment following sea level rise scenarios. The result of lost of ecosystem resources avaluation. + Strategies and solutions to adapt to climate change and sea level rise. The proposed solutions for sustainable development planning.

5. Implementation plan Activity Output Time 10/2013 02/2014

The complete set of document Gather and synthesize for the resource types which documents exist from the previous period. Write a research proposal. - Records, survey maps showing Investigate, field the volume of business. The survey, measure, questionnaire, measurement monitor and sampling results. analysing additional - Report of investigation, survey checks and monitoring. Analyse sample Ensure the using quality of sample

01/2014 12/2014

02/2014 02/2015

Process data, documents and build the maps, tables Map at 1/50.000. The data performing the results tables. Build 3 models. of the survey data. Build models. Build database system The data on natural resources about environment and environment of Kien Giang resources based on GIS province. The thematic must keep abreast Synthetic and handle of scientific goals of the project. material, build thematic The mitigation solutions must reports have scientific basic and high practical. Sightseeing, exchange, analyzed abroad academic send Expected in Korea samples

06/2014 04/2015

06/2014 06/2015

10/201406/2015

8-9/2014

Activity

Output - Profile Seminar,

Time

Scientific seminars.

conference,

- The opinions, speeches. - Final Report, absorbing evaluate the effectiveness of the workshop 10/2015

Report has been compiled from Build summary report the subjects, the research results, and acceptance test ensure the scientific content subjects meet the research objectives. 6. Implementing Agency Implementing agency: Office of Vietnam Environment Administration 10 Ton That Thuyet, Hanoi Phone: +84.4.3795 6868/3236 Email: phongtonghop@vea.gov.vn Coordination unit - People's Committee of Kien Giang Province; - People's Committee of Phu Quoc Island;

08/2014 -12/2015

- Department of Natural Resources and Environment of Kien Giang Province; - Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment; - Department of Hydrometeorology and Climate Change; - The units of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment; - Units of the Vietnam Environment Administration (VEA); - Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development. 7. The estimated costs Total cost of project: