Chng 4

NGHEO OI VA BAT BNH ANG TRONG TANG TRNG & PHAT TRIEN
PGS.TS inh Phi Ho

TAI LIEU THAM KHAO inh Phi Ho, 2006. Kinh te hoc phat trien: Ly thuyet va thc tien. Nha XB Thong Ke, TP. HCM. inh Phi Ho, 2008. Kinh te hoc nng nghip bn vng: Ly thuyet va thc tien. Nha XB Thong Ke, TP. HCM. inh Phi Ho. When Vietnam escapes underdeveloped? Economic development. Number 163-March, 2008. inh Phi Ho, 2008. Ngho v mi trng t nhin trong qu trnh pht trin nng nghip bn vng ng bng sng Cu Long. Pht trin kinh t. S 220, thng 2 nm 2009. A.P. Thirlwall, 1994. Growth and development with special reference to developing economies. London: the Macmillan Press LTD.
2

Dinh Phi Ho (2009). Microcredit to reduce poverty in

HCMC: Efficiency and Policy Suggestion. Economic Development Review . Number 179 July 2009 Bruce R. Morris, 1967. Economic growth and development. USA: Pitman Publishing Corporation. M. Gillis, D. H. Perkins, M. Roemer and D.R. Snodgrass, 1983. Economics of Development. USA: W.W. Norton & Company, Inc.

NGO Working Group, 2005. Vietnam Development

Report 2000-2004: Attacking Poverty.
3

GI Y E TAI NGHIEN CU

1. Ngheo oi Viet Nam (ong Bang Song Cu Long/Mien ong Nam Bo/Tay Nguyen hoac mot a phng): Nguyen nhan va giai phap. 2. Ngheo oi nong thon Viet Nam (ong Bang Song Cu Long/Mien ong Nam Bo/Tay Nguyen hoac mot a phng): Nguyen nhan va giai phap. 3. Bat bnh ng trong phan phoi thu nhap Viet Nam (ong Bang Song Cu Long/Mien ong Nam Bo/Tay Nguyen hoac mot a phng): Nguyen nhan va giai phap. 4. Ngheo oi va bat bnh dang trong phan phoi thu nhap Viet Nam (ong Bang Song Cu Long/Mien ong Nam Bo/Tay Nguyen hoac mot 4 a phng): Nguyen nhan va giai phap.

I. KHAI NIEM & THC O Ngheo oi tuyet oi (Absolute Poverty) Tnh trang mot ngi hoac mot ho gia nh khong c hng va thoa man nhng nhu cau c ban cho cuoc song (an, mac, , c cham soc sc khoe, c giao duc c ban va c hng cac dch vu can thiet khac) ma c xa hoi tha nhan tuy theo trnh o phat trien kinh te xa hoi cua moi nc (WB). Mot ngi hoac mot ho gia nh c xem la ngheo oi tuyet oi khi thu nhap hoac chi tieu thap hn tieu chuan toi thieu c qui nh bi mot quoc gia hoac to chc quoc te trong khoang thi gian nhat nh.
5

KHAI NIEM

Bang 1: Tieu chuan ngheo oi cua World Bank

Khu vc Tieu chuan ngheo oi Mc thu nhap hoac chi tieu (USD)/ngi/ngay 1 USD hoac 360 USD/nam 2 4 14,4

Cac nc ang phat trien Viet nam Chau My Latin va Caribe ong Au Cac nc phat trien

KHAI NIEM

Bang 2: Tieu chuan ngheo oi cua Viet Nam 2000-2005 (Theo quyet nh 143/2000 cua Bo LTBXH)
Khu vc Tieu chuan ngheo oi Mc thu nhap (chi Mc thu nhap (chi tieu) /ngi/thang tieu) / ngi/nam 150,000 ong 1,800,000 ong (128 USD) 120,000 ong 1,200,000 ong (85 USD/nam) 80,000 ong 960,000 ong (68 USD)

Thanh th Nong thon ong bang Nong thon mien nui hai ao

Tieu chuan cua Viet Nam so vi World Bank 128 < 360 USD/ngi/nam

Tieu chuan TP. HCM Di 4,000,000 ong/nam (284 USD/nam).

KHAI NIEM

Ngheo oi tng oi (Relative Poverty) Tnh trang mot ngi hoac mot ho gia nh thuoc nhom co thu nhap thap nhat trong xa hoi c xac nh trong nhng a iem cu the va thi gian xac nh. Tnh trang ngheo oi luon hien dien bat ke trnh o phat trien kinh te khac nhau. Bat bnh ang trong phan phoi thu nhap (Inequality) S khac biet ve thu nhap gia cac nhom dan c 7 khac nhau trong xa hoi.

Hien trang ngheo oi

(1) Ngheo oi chung (Overall Poverty)

So ngi (ty le) hoac so ho (ty le) co thu nhap (chi tieu) khong bao am c mc song toi thieu. Da theo tieu chuan cua WB - 2003, mc thu nhap di 360 USD/ngi / nam. The gii hien co 1,1 ty ngi ngheo oi. Da theo tieu chuan cua WB, mc thu nhap di 360 USD/ngi / nam. Chau phi ty le ngi ngheo oi la 80%; Khu vc Nam A: 79%; Trung ong va Bac Phi: 61%. Viet nam: 19,5%

THC O

Mot na dan so th gii (3 t ngi) la ngheo oi (Theo tieu chuan WB, 2007: 2 USD/Ngi/Ngay)
8

(2) Ngheo oi lng thc (Food Poverty) So ngi (ty le) hoac so ho (ty le) co thu nhap (chi tieu) khong bao am c mc nang lng toi thieu 2100 Calories/ngay/ngi

Xu hng ngheo oi
THC O Ty le ngi hoac ty le ho ngheo oi giam dan theo thi gian.

Bang 4: Xu hng ngheo oi Viet Nam (Theo tieu chuan cua WB)
1993 Ty le ho ngheo (%) 58,1 1998 37,4 2002 28,9 2004 18,1 2006 2010 15,5 14,2
9

Bat bnh ang

(1) ng cong LORENZ

Cho thay mc o khac nhau cua phan phoi phu nhap gia cac nhom dan c khac nhau. Ve ng cong Lorenz THC O (1) Phan chia dan c ra lam 5 nhom, moi nhom chiem 20% dan so . (2) Ty le % tong thu nhap cua moi nhom dan c

(3) Ty le % tong thu nhap cong don the hien tren truc tung, ty le % dan so cong don tren truc hoanh.
(4) V ng 450
10

ng dng v ng cong Lorenz

Cho biet tnh hnh so lieu cua quc gia A nam 2008 (%)

Thap nhat Ty le dan so xep theo th t trnh o thu nhap Ty le c hng trong tong thu nhap quoc gia 20 6,6

Nhom Thu nhap Thap T.bnh Kha Cao nhat 20 7,8 20 12,6 20 23,6 20 49,4

Bc 1: Chuyen sang dang gia tr cong don

11

(1) Ty le dan so xep theo th t thu nhap Ty le dan so cong don, % Ty le dan so cong don, so thap phan (2) Ty le thu nhap Ty le thu nhap cong don, % Ty le thu nhap cong don, so thap phan 6,6 14,4 27 50,6 100 0,066 0,144 0,27 0,506 1 20 0,2 40 0,4 60 0,6 80 0,8 100 1

12

V tr ng Lorenz
Hnh 1: ng cong Lorenz
ng 450 D
1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
T l % thu nhp cng dn

ng 450
Bnh ng tuyt i

ng cong Lorenz

ng Lorenz nhp vo ng 450

Bnh ng tuyt i

ng Lorenz nhp vo ng OCD

0 O 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Bt bnh ng tuyt i
13

T l % dn s cng dn

Hnh 1: ng cong Lorenz

ng 450 D
1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
T l % thu nhp cng dn

(2) H s Gini (Gini Concentration Ratio)

ng cong Lorenz
S3 S1 S2 A S4

S5

SA+ SB SA = SOCD - SB SA = 1/2 - SB

B

RGini =

SA

SB = S1 + S2 + S3 + S4 + S5
C

SA + SB = 1/2

0 O

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1
14

T l % dn s cng dn

 ngha Gini

Hnh 1: ng cong Lorenz

ng 450 D
1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
T l % thu nhp cng dn

RGini = 0
Bnh ng tuyt i RGini = 1 Bt B tuyt i

ng cong Lorenz
S3 S1 S2 A S4

S5

0 < RGini < 1

C

Bt bnh ng

O 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1
15

T l % dn s cng dn

Cach tnh h so Gini - Tnh cac gia tr theo so thap phan - Dien tch hnh A + Dien tch hnh B = = - Dien tch hnh B (SB) = S1 + S2 + S3 +S4 + S5 - Dien tch hnh A = 0,5 - SB - Ap dung cong thc tnh RGini 0,5.

ng dung: Xac nh h so Gini trong trng hp cua quc gia A

16

HNG DAN
Ket qua Dien tch S1 (0,2 x 0,006)/2 0.0066 Dien tch S2 [(0.144+0.066)x0,2]/2 0.0210 Dien tch S3 [(0.144+0.27)x0,2]/2 0.0414 Dien tch S4 [(0.27+0.506)x0,2]/2 0.0776 Dien tch S5 [(0.506+1)x0,2]/2 0.1506 Dien tch SB S1 +S2 +S3 +S4 +S5 0.2972 Dien tch SA 0,5 - SB 0.2028 RGini SA / 0,5 0.4056
17

Cach tnh

QUOC GIA CAC NC THU NHAP THAP Bangladesh India Indonesia Sri Lanka Zambia
CAC NC TN TRUNG BNH South Korea Uruguay Argentina Peru Mexico Brazil

% THU NHAP NHAN C BI Ty so 40%SO NGI 20% SO NGI Gini NGHEO NHAT GIAU NHAT

17,3 16,2 14,4 13,3 10,8

16,9 14,3 14,1 12,9 9,9 8,1

45,3 49,4 49,4 56,1 61,1

45,3 47,4 50,3 51,9 57,7 62,6

0,375 0,413 0,430 0,485 0,537

0,378 0,423 0,442 0.458 0,523 0,569
18

II

QUOC GIA III CAC NC TN CAO Singapore Taiwan Hong Kong New Zealand Australia UK France Canada Germany United States Switzerland Sweeden Japan

% THU NHAP NHAN C BI Ty so 40%SO NGI 20% SO NGI Gini NGHEO NHAT GIAU NHAT 14 20 16,2 15,9 15,5 17,3 18,4 17,4 19,5 15,7 16,9 21,2 21,9 48,9 41,4 47 46,7 42,2 39,5 40,8 39,4 38,7 41,9 44,6 36,9 37,5 0,422 0,326 0,396 0,387 0,374 0,338 0,338 0,338 0,315 0,369 0,378 0,288 0,285

19

(3) Tiu chun 40 World Bank

Ty le thu nhap chiem trong tong thu nhap dan c cua 40% dan so co mc thu nhap thap nhat cua xa hoi. - Ty le > 17%, mc o bnh ang cao - 12% Ty le 17%, bat bnh ang tng oi - Ty le < 12%, mc o bat bnh ang cao

(4) H s chnh lch thu nhp

Mc chenh lech thu nhap cua 20% dan so co thu nhap cao nhat va 20% dan so co thu nhap thap nhat. He so chenh lech cang ln, tnh trang bat bnh ang cang cao.
20

Bang 5: He so chenh lech mot so nc

Ten nc 20% so dan ngheo nhat Turkey Tuynidi Xenegan 5,8 6,4 5,7 20% so dan giau nhat 47,7 47,9 48,2 He so chenh lech 8,22 7,48 8,46

Bang 6: Tnh trang bat bnh ang Viet Nam Nam He so Gini He so chenh lech
1993 1998 2004 0,34 0,35 0,37 5 6,7 7,27
21

(5) Ch s pht trin gii

anh gia tnh trang bat bnh ang hoac phan biet oi x phan biet vi n gii.
GDI (Gender Development Index) Tnh nh HDI nhng theo n gii.

Khi GDI cang nho so vi HDI, tnh trang bat bnh ang gii cang cao. Bang 7: Ch so phat trien gii (2002)

HDI Viet Nam 0,688

Xep hang 109/175

GDI 0,687

Xep hang 89/175

22

Bang 8: Ch so phat trien gii cua mot so nc

HDI Norway Singapore Luxembour Arab Xeut Thailand Sri Lanka Vietnam 0,939 0,876 0,924 0,74 0,757 0,735 0,682 Xep hang 1 26 12 68 66 81 101 GDI 0,937 0,871 0,907 0,719 0,757 0,732 0,680 Xep hang 1 26 19 75 58 70 89
23

II. Cac mo hnh ve bat bnh ang trong qua trnh tang trng va phat trien kinh te 1. M hnh Kuznets Lewis (1995)
Mo hnh tang trng trc, phan phoi lai thu nhap sau (Grow first, then Redistribute). Moi lien he gia GNP/ngi va s bat bnh ang trong phan phoi thu nhap c the hien theo hnh ch U ngc. Mo hnh ch U ngc (Inverted U).
24

Lun im Kuznets

Hnh 2: Mo hnh ch U ngc

Gini Ratio
0,9

PCI tng, RGini tng

Bt bnh ng tng,

0,6

PCI tng, RGini gim

Bt bnh ng gim

0,3

Per Capita GNP

25

Da vao so lieu thu thap trong giai oan 1965 -1988 cua 63 quoc gia tren the gii, Kuznets tm ra ket qua moi quan he U ngc cua Kuznets.
% Thu nhap nhan So bi: nc 40% Dan so thu nhap thap nhat 15 27 21 14,4 12,7 18,3 40% Dan so thu nhap cao RGini nhat

Nhom nc

GNP/Ngi / Nam (USD)

QG co TN thap QG co TN trung bnh QG co TN cao

49,4 54,0 40,5

0.43 0,473 3,37

265 455 5740

26

Ket qua hoi quy LnG = - 0,116 + 0,183 Ln (Yp) - 0,014 Ln (Yp)2 (2) R2 = 0,5; Cac he so hoi quy am bao y ngha thong ke 95%. R2 = 0,5 Y ngha

50% nguyen nhan tnh trang khac nhau ve bat bnh ang trong phan phoi thu nhap cua cac nc c giai thch bi trnh o GNP/ngi. b = + 0,183
Khi trnh o GNP/ngi tang dan, tnh trang bat bnh ang cung tang theo.

c = - 0,014
Khi trnh o GNP/ngi tiep tuc tang rat cao, tnh trang bat bnh ang giam dan.
27

2. Mo hnh Lewis Ly giai nguyen nhan dan en xu hng ch U ngc Trong giai oan au cua qua trnh phat trien kinh te Dch chuyen lao ong d tha khu vc nong nghiep Yi tang Ki tang

Nguyen nhan

Wi khong oi
i tang

IW khong oi BB
IO tang

Trong giai oan sau cua qua trnh phat trien kinh te Dch chuyen lao ong qua phan d tha khu vc nong nghiep

Wi tang
i giam

IW tang
IO giam

BB
28

Xu hng hnh ch U ngc mang tnh tat yeu cua qua trnh phat trien. Tranh hap tap, voi va
Chnh sach

oi vi cac nc ang phat trien, trong giai oan nen kinh te tang trng nhanh, GNP/ngi ang tang dan phai chap nhan mc o phan hoa cach biet trong phan phoi thu nhap.
Khuyen khch va huy ong cac chu doanh nghiep tang tiet kiem va au t vao san xuat nham ay nhanh tch luy von san xuat.

(The more income they receive, the more they invest) 29

(1) Mat thi gian bao lau mi ti giai oan tang trng tng ng vi giam bat bnh ang? Van e (2) Neu chu doanh nghiep dung li nhuan e au t nc ngoai th sao?

2. Mo hnh phan phoi lai trc, tang trng sau (Redistribute first then Grow) Kinh nghiem cua nhng quoc gia theo nen kinh te XHCN S phat trien c bat au bang cach tt oat cua nhng ke tt oat.

Luan iem

Cac nguon lc san xuat c phan phoi lai cho cac n v nha nc va ngi san xuat nho trong cong nghiep cung nh nong nghiep di cac hnh thc s hu nha nc va s hu tap the. 30

Khong con bat bnh ang He qua Tang trng? Neu ngi chu mi co kha nang s dung hieu qua nguon lc

Bnh ang va tang trng

Neu ngi chu mi khong co kha nang s dung hieu qua nguon lc Bai hoc kinh nghiem, Vietnam, China, Russia

Tang trng

Bnh ang va khong tang trng

31

4. Mo hnh World Bank (Phan phoi lai cung vi tang trng, Redistribution with Growth) Hoa hp gia 2 cc: Tang trng trc, phan phoi lai thu nhap sau va phan phoi lai thu nhap trc, tang trng sau Nguon li thu c t tang trng kinh te can c phan phoi lai sao cho cung vi thi gian thc hien tang trng.

Luan iem

Ly thuyet Pareto (1848 1923): phan phoi thu nhap c cai thien hoac t nhat la khong xau i trong khi qua trnh tang trng van tien len.
32

Quy nh ve mc tien lng toi thieu, ho tr ve von va khuyen khch phat trien cac d an thu hut nhieu lao ong khong co trnh o. Chnh sach

nh hng au t c s ha tang va tai tr von vao nhng lnh vc ma ngi ngheo lam chu tai san trong san xuat (Ho nong dan san xuat vung nong thon, doanh nghiep va va nho thanh th).
M rong au t cho giao duc va ao tao nganh nghe nham cai thien trnh o van hoa, ky nang lao ong, m rong c hoi viec lam cho ngi ngheo.
33

Chnh sach

au t va m rong mang li dch vu cong ong: Nc sach, cham soc sc khoe, cung cap hang hoa thiet yeu ve lng thc thc pham hang tieu dung can thiet khac vung nong thon va ni ma ngi ngheo tap trung sinh song khu vc thanh th.

Korea va Taiwan la bang chng viec ap dung mo hnh World Bank trong nhng nam 60 va 70.

34

5. Mo hnh Gillis Perkins - Roemer- Snodgrass (1983)

Khi GNP/ngi tang, thu nhap trung bnh cua ngi ngheo se tang.
Yp = f(Y) Luan iem (1)

Ln Yp = a + b LnY

(2)

Yp: thu nhap trung bnh trong nam cua 40% ho ngheo nhat cua xa hoi. Y: GNP/ngi/nam

Da vao so lieu thu Ln Yp = -1,687 + 1,088 LnY (3) thap trong giai oan R2 = 0,97 1965-1988 cua 63 quoc gia tren the gii.
Co moi tng quan dng gia tnh trang ngheo oi va vung a ly co GNP/ngi thap
35

Bang 10: So ngi ngheo oi phan theo vung a ly

Vung So ngi ngheo (Trieu ngi) 520 280 70 180 60 6 1,116 % cua tong so ngi ngheo tren the gii 47 25 6 16 5 1 100

Nam A ong A Sa mac Sahara Chau My La tin va vung Caribe Trung ong va Bac Phi ong Au Tong so

36

Bang 11: So ngi ngheo oi phan theo vung a ly Viet Nam (Theo tieu chuan cua World Bank)
Vung Ty phan trong tong ngheo oi quoc gia (%) 1992 Nui pha bac B song Hong Bac trung bo DH mien trung Tay nguyen ong Nam bo ong bang SCL Ca nc 21 23 16 10 4 7 18 100 1998 28 15 18 10 5 3 21 100 1998 18 20 14 11 4 13 21 100 2004 14,4 21,6 12,9 8,6 5,7 15,9 20,9 100
37

Ty le ngi ngheo oi (%)

Bang 12: So ngi ngheo oi phan theo thanh th va nong thon Viet Nam (Theo tieu chuan cua World Bank)
Ty le ngi ngheo (%) Thanh th Nong thon 1993 58,1 25,5 74,5 1998 37,4 9,2 90,8 2002 28,9 6,6 93,4 2004 19,5 3,6 96,4

Nguon: TCTK, 2007.

38

Tang trng va phat trien kinh te se anh hng nang cao thu nhap cho ngi ngheo Chnh sach Giam so ngi ngheo.

Ngo nhan: khi qua nhan manh en xoa oi giam ngheo ma khong da tren c s tang trng kinh te. Ngi ngheo tap trung cac vung a ly co thu nhap thap, ac biet la vung nong thon.
Chnh sach thu hut au t phat trien va phan bo nguon lc xoa oi giam ngheo u tien cho cac vung nong thon.
39

6. Mo hnh cac yeu to anh hng en ngheo oi Viet Nam

Ty le ngheo con cao so vi the gii

Ngheo oi tap trung vung nong thon Van e Ngheo oi tap trung vao hai vung lua trong iem (BSH, BSCL) Tnh trang bat bnh ang ang trong xu hng ngay cang tang va chenh lech cang cao gia thanh th va nong thon Tieu chuan WB nang cao gap oi am bao phat trien ben vng

Chien lc giam ngheo can thiet cho ca ngan va dai han

40

Mo hnh ly thuyet
Waheed (1996), Dominique V.D.W va Dileni G. (2000), Bales S. (2001), Wan D.W va Cratty (2002), WB (2007), D.P. Ho va N.T. Hoai (2007) nhan dien co 8 yeu to anh hng.
(1). Nghe nghiep, tnh trang viec lam Ngi ngheo thng khong co viec lam, lam thue hoac lam viec trong nong nghiep, trong khi ngi giau thng co viec lam trong nhng lnh vc co thu nhap cao va tng oi on nh nh buon ban, dch vu, cong chc. (2). Trnh o hoc van Khong co u tien e trang trai cho chi ph hoc tap cho nen thng bo hoc rat sm hay tham ch la khong i hoc. Ri vao cai bay: t hoc ngheo Ngi ngheo khong nhng thieu hieu biet ma con thieu kha nang tiep thu kien thc chuyen mon can thiet trong hoat 41 ong kinh te.

Yeu to

(3). Gii tnh cua chu ho

vung nong thon, ho gia nh co chu ho la n co kha nang ngheo ln hn so vi nhng ho co chu ho la nam.
N thng co t c hoi lam viec vi thu nhap cao ma thng lam viec nha va song da vao nguon thu t ngi nam trong gia nh. Yeu (4). Quy mo ho to Quy mo mot ho gia nh cang ln th ho co chi tieu bnh quan au ngi thap hn.

Nhieu kha nang ngheo

(5). So ngi song phu thuoc

Ty le ngi an theo cang cao, phai ganh chu nhng chi ph nhieu hn cho hoc hanh, kham cha benh. Nhieu kha nang ngheo

42

(6). Qui mo dien tch at cua ho gia nh

nong thon, at la t lieu san xuat chu yeu cua nong nghiep, nguon tao ra thu nhap. Khong co at hoac qui mo at t thng i oi vi ngheo.
Yeu to

(7). Qui mo von vay t nh che chnh thc Thieu von au t dan en nang suat thap, keo theo thu nhap ho gia nh thap. Vay von t nh che chnh thc la cong cu quan trong giup ho nong thon thoat ngheo
43

(8). Kha nang tiep can c s ha tang

Yeu to

C s ha tang nong thon bao gom ng giao thong, ien, nc sach, he thong thong tin lien lac.
Khi c s ha tang nong thon phat trien nhat la thong qua thc hien cac d an phat trien c s ha tang se tao nhieu c hoi viec lam cho ngi ngheo vung nong thon.

44