8

J.G. Teng and J.M. Rotter

The difculty of solving a shell buckling problem is, however, replaced by another. Numerical predictions have much less value in design than comprehensive algebraic relationships, but algebraic formulations do not arise naturally from the numerical calculations. Considerable effort is required to identify the controlling parameters of any new problem, so that although the correct answer to a problem may be formally obtained using numerical methods, the underlying controlling physics is not apparent, and the manner in which the results should be expressed still requires a major research effort. The complexity of practical problems means that there continues to be great need for research on shell buckling. Nevertheless, numerical modelling opens the door to great strides to improve our understanding of shell buckling under a much wider range of conditions. The second difculty, the sensitivity to geometric imperfections in unknown forms, remains. It requires urgent attention if numerical buckling analyses are either to be applied directly in design or to be used to provide predictions that can replace the experimental studies that were always previously required to develop design methods. The establishment of a procedure to convert numerically obtained buckling loads into a reliable design strength predictions is one of the most important challenges facing the shell buckling research community (Samuelson 1991a). The new European Standard on Strength and Stability of Shells (ENV 1993-1-6 1999) has made a substantial rst step in this direction (Rotter 2002a,b), but much more research is needed to verify its procedures and to discover shortcomings that may be present in the process.

Imperfections and their characterisation Imperfections in shell buckling design It is evident that the buckling strength of imperfect cylindrical shells remains an area of active research. Lower bound strength estimates give no reward for good quality fabrication, and often seriously underestimate the reliable strength that can be achieved. To exploit the knowledge of imperfection sensitivity, the design must explicitly dene the imperfection that is adopted. The key problem for the design process is to identify and characterise appropriate practically relevant geometric imperfections, including both their form and amplitude. The imperfection forms that are most deleterious to shell strength are often unlikely to arise in practice, and the imperfection amplitudes are often difcult to predict in advance. The imperfection form that is most deleterious to strength also changes substantially with the load case, so where several different load cases must be addressed in design, it may be that different imperfection forms and amplitudes must be assumed for each load case. Moreover, the assumptions made about imperfections in design must be transformed into tolerances in execution, and the tolerance measurement systems must allow for the substantial differences that there may be between the assumed imperfection form and the real imperfections.