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Citizens United Political Victory Fund Kellyanne Conway, President & CEO the polling company, inc./WomanTrend November 24, 2013
DATE:
RE: Analysis: Iowa Republican Primary Voter Survey OVERVIEW Candidate Image and Standing If Bob Vander Plaats decides to run for U.S. Senate in 2014, he will instantly become the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. None of the announced candidates in the race to replace retiring Sen. Tom Harkin (D) next year are as well-known; more than 70% of Republicans say they have never heard of or do not have an opinion of each of the seven tested. Former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker has the highest favorability (21% favorable to 8% unfavorable) and highest name identification (64%) among them, but these are only marginally higher than other candidates. Vander Plaats dominance is due to his high name identification and positive image among Republican voters (48% favorable, 18% unfavorable). His three previous unsuccessful campaigns for statewide office seem not to have damaged his standing among Republican voters, albeit as a hypothetical and unannounced candidate for 2014 early in the process. Vander Plaats prominence as a conservative leader in Iowa, and a major kingmaker for the quadrennial Iowa Caucus give him automatic advantages not afforded to any other candidate currently in the race. In fact, he leads among every significant subgroup (e.g., gender, age, geography), with the exception of the 10% of primary voters who consider themselves ideologically moderate (Jodi Ernst leads them with 17% of the vote).
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
48%
17% 10%
David Young
21%
8%
Matt Whitaker
19% 9%
Joni Ernst
19%
7%
16% 8%
14% 8%
Scott Shaben
14% 10%
18%
Favorable
Unfavorable
the polling company, inc./WomanTrend for Citizens United Political Victory Fund Statewide Survey of 400 Likely GOP Primary Voters in Iowa Analysis November 2013
About 4 out of 10 voters surveyed consider themselves "Republican", "very conservative", AND "supporters of the Tea Party". Of this subset, four candidates--David Young, Matt Whitaker, Joni Ernst, and Sam Clovis--have higher name ID and favorability than the remaining three, but still lag far behind Vander Plaats, who clocks an impressive 61%-9% favorable-to-unfavorable rating among this more committed, hard core group of voters.
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
23% 9%
David Young
25% 5%
Matt Whitaker
24% 6%
Joni Ernst
24% 5%
18% 6%
14% 8%
Scott Shaben
15% 7%
9%
Favorable
Unfavorable
If Vander Plaats passes on the race, the primary will remain be a wide open contest. Jacobs will have a money advantage; Young is the Beltway favorite, given his experience working for Sen.
the polling company, inc./WomanTrend for Citizens United Political Victory Fund Statewide Survey of 400 Likely GOP Primary Voters in Iowa Analysis November 2013
Grassley; and Ernst has the endorsement of the Lieutenant Governor and a plea to Iowans to help her make history as the first female U.S. Senator to represent Iowa. Yet this survey suggests that popular radio talk show host Sam Clovis might have the early advantage among reliable, active voters in a BVP-free contest: Clovis is the only other candidate (besides Vander Plaats) in double-digits among: Seniors (who are the most reliable primary voting bloc) Tea Party supporters Those who call themselves "very conservative" Those who live in Congressional District 4, the most conservative CD in the state, currently represented by Rep. Steve King.
Methodology Statement On behalf of Citizens United Political Victory Fund, the polling company, inc./WomanTrend (Kellyanne Conway) surveyed 400 likely Republican primary voters in Iowa from November 22 - 23, 2013. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 4.9% at the 95% confidence level. This survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording technology, and data were weighted by age and party registration.
the polling company, inc./WomanTrend for Citizens United Political Victory Fund Statewide Survey of 400 Likely GOP Primary Voters in Iowa Analysis November 2013