Professional Documents
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by
Professor Department of Civil Engineering IIT Bombay, Powai, Mumbai 400 076, India.
Email: dc@civil.iitb.ac.in URL: http://www.civil.iitb.ac.in/~dc/ Lecture 30
Module 7
IIT Bombay, DC
Log N
1.25 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
Gutenberg Richter recurrence relations are derived using Least Square Fit method using prepared earthquake catalogue for Mw 4.
Past seismicity
Region
a-value
G-R relation Log N=4.03 0.64 Mw Log N=4.02 0.62 Mw Log N=3.41 0.41 Mw Log N=4.13 0.51 Mw
used (Year)
Saurashtra Mainland Kachchh Gujarat 135 175 189 189 4.03 4.02 3.41 4.13
1 ln(10)(u mmin )
b-value using ML estimate 0.526 0.572
Mainland Gujarat
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0.642
Surat
Cumulative Probability
Ahmedabad
7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
1872
1882 1903 1919 1921 1935 1938 1950 1956 1963 1965 1966
4
6 1 4 10 7 3 6 7 7 3 5
14
10 14 21 26 20 14 14 21 13 26 27
1872.372
1882.5 1903.083 1919.391 1921.833 1935.583 1938.25 1950.5 1956.583 1963.583 1965.25 1966.417
21.75
23.2 24 22 25 21 21.6 24 23.3 24.9 24.4 24.46
72.15
71.38 70 72 68 72.4 75 71.2 70 70.3 70 68.69
5
5 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.7 6 5.3 6 5.3 5.1 5
1.289
10.128 20.583 16.308 2.442 13.75 2.667 12.25 6.083 7 1.667 1.167
Bhavnagar
Bhachau Kachchh Bhavnagar Kachchh Surat Satpura Kachchh Kachchh Pakistan Kachchh Pakistan
Pareto Distribution Rayleigh Distribution Weibull Distribution Exponential Distribution Earthquakes Earthquake (Mw >= 5) in Gujarat region
19
20 21 22 23 24 25
1970
1976 1985 1993 2001 2006 2007
2
6 4 8 1 3 11
13
4 7 24 26 7 6
1970.167
1976.5 1985.333 1993.732 2001.083 2006.25 2007.933
24.6
24.51 24.36 20.6 23.44 23.79 21.16
68.61
68.45 69.74 71.4 70.31 70.73 70.54
5.2
5.1 5 5 7.7 5.7 5
3.75
6.333 8.833 8.399 7.351 5.167 1.683
Kachchh
Allah Band Kachchh Rajula Kachchh Gedi, Junagadh
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Recurrence Estimation
Probability Distribution Model Recurrence interval (years) Predicted 7.853 16.173 3.135 7.011 Last Event occurred on Next Earthquake Expected on Study Date Considered (Nov 10th 2009) 2009.85 2009.85 2009.85 2009.85 Year Left from Present Date Next earthquake expected before Oct 2015* Feb 2024 Jan 2011 Dec 2014*
*Note: This research output published in Journal Disaster Advances in Aug. 2011 was validated by actual occurrence of earthquake of September 2011.
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13
14 15 16 17 18
Gujarat
Gujarat Gujarat Peninsular Gujarat region Gujarat
0.417 0.64 0.62 0.51 0.526 0.572 0.642 0.67 0.87 ( 0.06) 0.72 0.43 0.71 0.03 0.7 to 0.9 0.07 0.4 to 0.6
0.4 to 0.8 0.92 0.55 0.89
Rastogi et al. (2013) WCE NDMA (2010) Tripathi et al., (2005) Ashara et al., (2006) Jaiswal (2006)
Periods for study taken (1820-2008) (1872-2008) (1872-2008) (1820-2008) (1820-2009) (1872-2009) (1872-2009) (1970-2010) (*1800-2009) (1842-2002)
Raghukanth (2010)
Kolathayar et al. (2011) for Clustered catalogue Kolathayar et al. (2011) for declustered catalogue Jaiswal and Sinha (2007) Bhatia et al. (1999) Thaker et al. (2012)
(1250-2008)
(250 B.C. -2010) (250 B.C. -2010) (1842-2002) 1818-2008
All the faults are Normal faults, depth ranging 10 to 15km from ground surface.
DSHA
1
Describes the potential for dangerous, earthquake-related natural phenomena i.e. Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE)
The earthquake hazard for the site is a peak ground acceleration of 0.57g resulting from an earthquake of magnitude 5.7 on the Narmada Son Fault at a distance of 11.42 km from the site.
Sometimes called Deterministic Scenario in Magnitude, Distance pair i.e. (5.7, 11.42)
Total 40 major faults are considered. Length derived from referred literature and maps. Maximum earthquake magnitude calculated from relationships recommended by few researchers considering one third length as rupture surface.
25
F18 F48 F24 F49 F27 F25A F5 F26 F28 F29 F6 F3 F7 F8 F10 F9 F43 F45 F46 F1 F30 F31 F32 F33 F35 F34 F37 F41
25
24
F14 F13 F15
24
23
F12
23
22
F2
F4
22
F38
F42
21
Legend :
n th Fault, Fn
21
20
20
19 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74
19 75
GMPEs selected
GMPE Abrahamson and Silva (1997) Boore et al. (1997) Campbell (1997) (Rock site definition is in accordance with NEHRP seismic code) (for Mw > 5 and sites with distance to seismogenic rupture 60 km in active tectonic region) Sadig (1997) Shallow crustal earthquake (Moment magnitude Mw = 4 to 8 and of California distance up to 100 km). Toro et al. (1997) Crustal earthquake of (For spectral period less than 0.2 sec, Intraplate region in Eastern values limited to 1.5 g and periods less and Central North America than 1 sec are limited to 3 g.) Frankel et al. Intraplate region of Central (1996) and Eastern North America Raghukanth and Peninsular India (For sites with shear wave velocity Vs Iyengar (2007) 3.6 km/sec.)
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Applicability Worldwide shallow crustal earthquake Shallow crustal earthquake of Western north America Worldwide shallow crustal earthquake
Remark
Various GMPEs
0.1
Abra.-Silva (1997) Boore-Joyner-Fumal (1997) Campbell (1997) Frankel (1996) Sadigh (1997) Rock Toro (1997) Raghu Kanth & Iyengar (2007)
0.01
1E-3 0
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20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
DSHA Results
Name
City/Urban Area N0
Ahmedabad Amreli Anjar Baroach Bhavnagar Bhuj Dholavira Dholera Dwarka Gandhidham Gandhinagar Jamnagar Junagadh Mandavi Mehsana Morvi Palanpur Patan Porbundar Rajkot Surat Surendranagar Vadodara Valsad Veraval 23.030 21.602 23.112 21.715 21.770 23.252 23.883 22.248 22.241 23.071 23.229 22.466 21.515 22.833 23.598 22.814 21.171 23.850 21.643 22.283 21.194 22.718 22.306 20.610 20.912
of Location
Fault
F24 F6 F14 F33 F30 F14 F17 F31 F2 F14 F26 F13 F7 F13 F24 F14 F24 F49 F2 F13 F34 F28 F24 F37 F2
Mw
5.5 5.5 7.0 5.5 5.5 7.0 7.0 5.5 5.5 7.0 5.5 7.0 6.0 7.0 5.5 7.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 7.0 5.5 6.0 5.5 5.5 5.5
Distance (km)
171.240 25.330 13.320 7.190 8.000 14.500 5.000 33.030 89.240 15.960 174.240 34.480 14.370 34.720 143.610 59.090 152.810 115.390 110.190 83.280 17.760 105.020 22.190 19.000 12.000
14.290 15.500 13.320 7.190 8.000 14.500 5.000 20.330 12.000 15.960 31.570 34.480 14.370 34.720 15.010 59.090 10.250 15.600 11.640 83.280 17.760 30.570 22.190 19.000 12.000
F17 F7 F14 F33 F30 F14 F17 F28 F13 F14 F17 F13 F7 F13 F17 F14 F17 F17 F43 F13 F13 F17 F24 F37 F2
0.1
0.01
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Deterministic Spectra
0.7
Ahmedabad
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
Cities representing Kachchh region has very high ground motions and Mainland Gujarat has lowest ground motions. For Saurashtra mixed results are obtained.
0.1
0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Note: 0.5 Fractile = 50th percentile (representing MCE) and 0.84 Fractile = 84th percentile (representing SSE), with 5% damping
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Deterministic scenarios
Name of City/Urban Area
Ahmedabad Amreli Anjar Baroach Bhavnagar Bhuj Dholavira Dholera Dwarka Gandhidham Gandhinagar Jamnagar Junagadh Mandavi Mehsana Morvi Palanpur Patan Porbundar Rajkot Surat Surendranagar Vadodara Valsad Veraval
PGA (g) Median (0.5 percentile) 0.125 0.116 0.530 0.220 0.230 0.620 0.670 0.160 0.089 0.490 0.053 0.200 0.176 0.154 0.125 0.085 0.160 0.138 0.160 0.060 0.094 0.084 0.073 0.091 0.188
IS: 1893 Part1 (2002) PGA in (g) Zone assigned PGA (MCE) PGA (DBE)
III III V III III V V III IV V III IV III V IV IV IV IV III III III III III III III
0.16 0.16 0.34 0.16 0.16 0.34 0.34 0.16 0.24 0.34 0.16 0.24 0.16 0.34 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16
0.08 0.08 0.17 0.08 0.08 0.17 0.17 0.08 0.12 0.17 0.08 0.12 0.08 0.17 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
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IIT Bombay, DC
19
0.01
1E-3
1E-4
F14 (Exponential, b-value LSF estimate) F14 (Exponential,b-value as per ML estimation) F15 (Exponential, b-value LSF estimate) F15 (Exponential,b-value as per ML estimation) F17 (Exponential, b-value LSF estimate) F17 (Exponential,b-value as per ML estimation) F18 (Exponential, b-value LSF estimate) F18 (Exponential,b-value as per ML estimation) F14 (Exponential, b-value=0.92, Jaiswal and Sinha (2007)) F14 (Characteristic Model) F15 (Exponential, b-value=0.92, Jaiswal and Sinha (2007)) F15 (Characteristic Model) F17 (Exponential, b-value=0.92, Jaiswal and Sinha (2007)) F17 (Characteristic Model) F18 (Exponential, b-value=0.92, Jaiswal and Sinha (2007)) F18 (Characteristic Model)
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Logic Tree used in seismic hazard computations (Figures in the bracket show the weightage assigned in seismic hazard computations) (Abbreviations: Raghu Kanth and Iyengar (2007) RI07, Abrahamson and Silva (1997) AS97, Frankel (1996) F96, Toro et al., (1997) T97, Boore-Joyner and Fumel (1997) BJF97, Campbell (1997) C97, Sadigh et al. (1997)- S97).
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For PSHA map, 8430 grid points means = 8430 x 4 x 7 = 233520 computations carried out in present study.
This can be handled using computer software like SEISRISK III , CRISIS 2007 , EZ-FRISK88 etc. and MS Excel.
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Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
10 %
2%
475
2475
Operational Basis Earthquake (OBE) Contingency Level Earthquake (CLE) Max. Credible Earthquake (MCE)
Which means each 1120/233520 computations are repeated for each level of ground motion computations.
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1E-3
1E-5
1E-7
1E-9
1E-11
1E-4
1E-3
0.01
0.1
0.01
Ahmedabad
1.1 1.0 0.9 Retrun Period 2475 years Retrun Period 475 years Retrun Period 72 years IS 1893 (2002)- Zone III
0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
ensity D y it il b a b o r P
0.075
0 .0 5 0
0 .0 2 5
75 33.
75 43.
75 73.
25 81.
101
.2 5
108
.7 5
4.0
qu a r th
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
a ke
m Mo
en t
gn Ma
it
(M ude
7 .5
8 .0
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PGA (g)
Gandhidham
Mehsana
Dholavira
Vadodara
Dholera
Dwarka
Ahmedabad
Junagadh
Baroach
Mandavi
Bhavnagar
Gandhinagar
Jamnagar
Palanpur
Porbundar
Cities
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Surendranagar
Veraval
Patan
Amreli
Valsad
Bhuj
Rajkot
Morvi
Anjar
Surat
Summary
The seismicity within the Gujarat is very complex and migrating in nature and region wise not common. Seismic hazard assessment using single seismicity parameter for entire Gujarat may not correctly represent to the actual seismicity distribution. It is therefore important to carryout the seismic hazard analysis for Gujarat region using regional seismicity parameters which are consistent with present state of seismicity in the Gujarat. It is observed that in the prepared earthquake catalogue most of the events are from historic records i.e before 1960 and seismicity rate was constant up to 1962. After 1962, the seismicity rate within the Gujarat is observed to be increased. However for larger earthquake magnitude threshold i.e. Mw 4 catalogue can be considered to be complete for its use in seismic hazard assessment.
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Summary
The seismicity parameter (b-value) is calculated by two different approaches namely Least Square Fit method and Maximum Likelihood method. These parameters constitute the basic framework required for seismic hazard assessment for Gujarat region. The b-values obtained using Least Square Fit are 0.41, 0.64 and 0.62 for Kachchh, Saurashtra and Mainland Gujarat, respectively. The b-values estimated using the Maximum Likelihood estimations (Aki, 1965) are observed to be 0.53, 0.57 and 0.64 for Kachchh, Saurashtra and Mainland Gujarat, respectively. For Kachchh region, the recurrence interval for the earthquake magnitude Mw = 6 is less than the 25 years and Mw 7.5 it approaches 120 to 150 year. For both Mainland and Saurashtra region The recurrence interval for earthquake magnitude Mw = 5 is greater than 25 years and for Mw = 6 it is more than 125.
Summary
For earthquake magnitude Mw 5 in Gujarat region, it is observed that Exponential Model and Weibull Model are appropriate probability distributions for Gujarat region. Estimated seismic ground motions using Deterministic approach advocates that across Gujarat region, the seismic activities thereby seismic ground motions are dominated by the faults in the Kachchh region. It is again interesting to note that two major faults in Kachchh region namely F17 (Iceland Belt Fault) and F14 (Kachchh Mainland Fault) are the major contributors to the seismicity in the entire Gujarat. It is also notable that the present seismicity in Kachchh region is concentrated near F14 (KMF) and the location of Bhuj earthquake of 2001 is also close to this fault.
Summary
Though the peak ground acceleration (PGA) values are not in close agreement with those recommended by IS:1893 Part 1 (2002) for some cities but overall seismic ground motion distribution across the Gujarat region is more or less in agreement with regional distribution recommended by IS: 1893 Part 1 (2002). It is observed that the seismic hazards for few cities are found to be affected by near sources at lower spectral periods and by distant sources at higher spectral periods. In presently study it is observed that many cities of Gujarat like Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar etc. are influenced by distance source seismicity at higher spectral periods. For all cities in the Mainland Gujarat, the present PSHA study results in close agreement with the seismic ground motions recommended by IS: 1893 Part 1 (2002).
Jabalpur city
36
Sikkim Himalaya
Seismic Hazard analysis was carried out deterministically by considering the seismotectonic parameters and presented maximum credible earthquake for Sikkim by Nath et al. (2006). Further developed new attenuation relation for Sikkim Himalaya, a finally he developed seismic microzonation map using geographical information system (GIS)
Nath, 2007
37
IIT Bombay, DC
Delhi
Site-specific Microzonation Study in Delhi Metropolitan City by 2-D Modelling of SH and P-SV Waves by Parvez et al. (2004), Microzonation of earthquake hazard in Greater Delhi area by Iyengar and Ghosh (2004), and Seismic Microzonation Studies for Delhi Region by Rao and Neelima Satyam (2005) and First Order Seismic Microzonation of Delhi, India Using Geographic Information System (GIS) by Mohanty et al. (2006).
Mohanty et al. (2006) prepared a first order seismic microzonation map of Delhi using five thematic, layers viz., Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) contour, different soil types at 6 m depth, geology, groundwater fluctuation and bedrock depth, integrated on GIS platform.
IIT Bombay, DC 38
Delhi
IIT Bombay, DC
39
Dehradun
40
Guwahati
The total area has been grouped into five zones based on the hazard index values, categorized as very high (>0.50) high (0.40-0.50) moderate (0.30-0.40) low (0.20-30) and very low (< 0.20). Most of the residential area falls in a moderate zone. (Nath, 2007) 41
Bangalore
Based on 950 bore hole data with SPT and MASW at 56 locations
Bangalore
PGA contour at rock level with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for Bangalore city (Sitharam, 2008)
IIT Bombay, DC 43
Kolkata
In the seismic zonation map, Kolkata lies on the boundary of zone III and IV (which suggest the PGA value of 0.2 and 0.25g, respectively)
the major part of Kolkata City can experience PGA value above 0.25g, which suggests that Kolkata is in seismic zone IV. (Mohanty 2008)
IIT Bombay, DC 44
End of Module 7
IIT Bombay, DC 45