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ANALYSIS OF SEARCH RESULTS FOR THE

CLARIFICATION AND IDENTIFICATION OF
TECHNOLOGY EMERGENCE (AR-CITE)
Robert K. Abercrombie, Bob G. Schlicher, and Frederick T. Sheldon
abercrombierornl.gov, schlicherbgornl.gov, and sheldonftornl.gov
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1 Bethel Valley Road, Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6085
(USA)

Introduction
This research examines emerging
technologies Irom initial discovery (via
original scientiIic and conIerence
literature), through critical discoveries
(via original scientiIic, conIerence
literature and patents), transitioning
through Technology Readiness Levels
(TRLs) and ultimately on to commercial
application. The purpose oI this study is
to address the relationships among
multiple disparate sources oI
inIormation as a way to explain
systematically the emergence oI new
technologies Irom innovation on
through to commercial application with
regards to TRLs. In one example, we
investigate the combinations oI Iour
distinct and separate searchable on-line
networked sources (i.e., scholarly
publications and citation, patents, news
archives, and on-line mapping networks)
as they are assembled to become one
collective network (a data set Ior
analysis oI causal relations). In another
example, we investigate the
combinations oI Iive categories oI data
sources (i.e., university R&D, industry
R&D, product emergence, and two
levels oI annual market revenue |$1B
(USD) and $10B (USD)|). These
established networks and relationships
Iorm the basis analyze the temporal Ilow
oI activity (searchable events) Ior the
multiple example subject domains that
we investigated.
Background Related Work
The logical sequence oI milestones is
derived Irom our analysis oI a
previously documented data set and
technology that includes the initial
discovery (evident via original scientiIic
and conIerence literature), the
subsequent critical discoveries (evident
via original scientiIic, conIerence
literature and patents), and the
transitioning through the various TRLs
ultimately to commercial application
(Abercrombie, Udoeyop, & Schlicher,
2012).
The TRL is deIined as a measure used to
assess the maturity oI evolving
technologies (devices, materials,
components, soItware, work processes,
etc.) during their development and in
some cases during early operations
("DeIense Acquisition Guidebook,"
2012). TRLs can serve as a helpIul
knowledge-based standard and
shorthand Ior evaluating and classiIying
technology maturity, but they must be
supplemented with expert proIessional
judgment.
Research Hypothesis and
Experimental Design
The question we investigate is the
Iollowing. 'Can one map the liIe cycle
oI a technology in a standard
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methodological way to quickly identiIy
and classiIy the emergence oI a speciIic
technology?
Using the technology evolution model
(TEM) developed in our prior work
(Abercrombie, et al., 2012), a step wise
analysis was conducted, applying the
deIinitions oI the TRLs to the
corresponding milestones in the TEM to
two case studies. The Iirst case study
applied the TEM to investigate the
original Simple Network Management
Protocol (SNMP) data set spanning the
years 19882008. The second case study
conducted a similar step-wise TRL
analysis on a data set, spanning the
years 19652011 (Lee et al., 2012). This
second study addressed the evolution oI
eight speciIic subject areas oI
Iundamental research in InIormation
Technology (IT) (Digital
Communications, Computer
Architecture, SoItware Technologies,
Networking, Parallel & Distributed
Systems, Databases, Computer
Graphics, and AI & Robotics), and
respective industry interest categories
(Broadband & Mobile, Micro-
processors, Personal Computing,
Internet & Web, Cloud Computing,
Enterprise Systems, Entertainment &
Design, and Robotics & Assistive
Technologies) documenting university
research (equivalent to scholarly pursue)
and industry R&D (represented in
patents and trade secrets) evolution to
products with their respective market
share.
Results
The Iirst data set consists oI Iour distinct
and separate searchable on-line
networked sources (i.e., scholarly
publications and citation, patents, news
archives, and on-line mapping
networks). The data reIlects a time line
oI the technology transitions categorized
by TRLs as shown in Figure 1. These
results convinced us to adapt the TEM
so that the TRLs are used to determine
the stage in the sequence oI evolution
(technology transIer).
The second case study uses the modiIied
TEM to study a data set created Irom
survey data Irom the IT Sector (Lee, et
al., 2012) measuring the relationships
among universities, industry, and
governments` innovations and
leadership. Figure 2 identiIies the TRL
transitions on eight subject areas oI
Iundamental research in IT and industry
interest categories.


Figure 1. SNMP Technology Identification
by TRLs.


Figure 2. Area of Fundamental IT
Research Technology Identification by
TRLs.
Discussion and Conclusion
In general, when a new technology is
Iirst invented or conceptualized, it is not
suitable Ior immediate application.
Instead, new technologies are usually
subjected to experimentation,
reIinement, and increasingly realistic
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testing. However, applying the
deIinitions oI the TRL transitions
provides a stepwise concrete
explanation Ior the subject technology`s
evolution thus giving insight into its
maturity and market impact.
This work examines and clariIies how to
systematically classiIy the technology
evolution starting Irom an initial
discovery (via original scientiIic and
conIerence literature), through critical
developments (via original scientiIic,
conIerence literature and patents),
transitioning through TRLs to
commercial application and signiIicant
economic impact. The relationships
among multiple disparate sources oI
inIormation were addressed, as a way to
explain systematically the identiIiable
states oI new technologies, Irom
innovation on through to commercial
application. In the Iirst case study we
selected a very well-known documented
technology to test the TRL transitioning
hypothesis. In the second case study the
TRL transitioning hypothesis was
validated by selecting a cross-section oI
Iundamental IT research domains and
their corresponding industry interest
category spanning 19652011. In both
studies, applying the TRL transitioning
technique to the documented subject
areas resulted in trends that clariIied and
reIined the identiIication oI the
emergent technology. The TRL
transitions, in the modiIied TEM, are
useIul in the creation oI business
intelligence. Business intelligence
assists in providing a basis Ior strategic
business decision(s). Further research is
needed to reIine the critical underlying
data sources. In this study only two
economic impact categories were used.
To better under the progression (i.e.,
enabling breakthroughs) oI technology
transIer, it will be necessary to
subdivide the economic impact
categories into smaller bin sizes.
Another area oI investigation is to
address the associated supply chains
among the industry interest categories.
We would like to better understand how
inventions Irom one category aIIect
(overlap) the emergence (development)
properties in another category (e.g.,
phone hardware versus iTunes
soItware). Moreover, we intend to
investigate alternative techniques to
better understand key agents oI change
(i.e., TRL transitioning) toward a more
robust identiIication oI technology
emergence.
Acknowledgments
This manuscript has been authored by a
contractor oI the U.S. Government
(USG) under contract DE-AC05-
00OR22725. Accordingly, the USG
retains a nonexclusive, royalty-Iree
license to publish or reproduce the
published Iorm oI this contribution, or
allow others to do so, Ior USG purposes.
References
Abercrombie, Robert K., Udoeyop,
Akaninyene W., & Schlicher, Bob
G. (2012). A study oI scientometric
methods to identiIy emerging
technologies via modeling oI
milestones. Scientometrics, 91(2),
327-342. doi: 10.1007/s11192-011-
0614-4
DeIense Acquisition Guidebook. (2012).
Retrieved January 15, 2013, Irom
https://acc.dau.mil/CommunityBrow
ser.aspx?id518692&langen-US
Lee, Peter, Dean, Mark E., Estrin,
Deborah L., Kajiya, James T.,
Raghavan, Prabhakar, & Viterbi,
Andrew J. (2012). Continuing
Innovation in Information
Technologv. Washington, DC: The
National Academies Press.