Proceedings of International Conference on Mechanical & Manufacturing Engineering (ICME2008), 21– 23 May 2008, Johor Bahru, Malaysia.

© Faculty of Mechanical & Manufacturing Engineering, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia (UTHM), Malaysia.
ISBN: 97–98 –2963–59–2

Utilizing the Monte Carlo Simulation in Life Evaluation of Superheater Tubes

E. Poursaeidi1, 2,*, M. Alimadadi2
1- Assistant professor of mechanical deportment of Zanjan University, Iran
2- Research and laboratories division of Iran Power Plant Repair Co., Karaj, Iran
*
Corresponding author epsaeidi@znu.ac.ir; epsaeidi@yahoo.com;
Abstract
Remaining life of vulnerable to the fire-side corrosion superheater tubes of the boiler of a
powerplant was studied by use of the Monte Carlo simulation, based on nondestructive in site
tests. The criterion which was used for this purpose is due to the creep life of aforementioned
tubes, wall thickness rate, and stress sensitivity coefficient of the tubes. The in site gathered
probabilistic variables related to mentioned criterion were modeled by use of probabilistic
distribution functions, and their adoptable distribution functions were distinguished. The
simulation was carried out by developing a MATLAB program.

1. Introduction inspection instruments, the faults within the

Internally pressurized tubes are critical
components in heat-exchanger applications,
such as boiler water tubes, steam superheater
elements and chemical plant reformer tubes.
Tubes in such applications are vulnerable to
temperature excursions: as a consequence the
material may enter the creep regime, and
creep deformation (bulging) and even frac-
ture (longitudinal rupture) may subsequently
occur with serious consequences. It is
estimated that 10% of all powerplant break-
downs are caused by creep fractures of boiler
tubes. In general, 30% of all tube failures in
boilers and reformers are caused by creep [1].
The residual creep life evaluation of the
components of a boiler has the major
importance from the technical, safety and
economical viewpoints. It also can prevent
the unexpected and unpredicted stops which
may be accompanied with large damages,
which in some cases, may not be able to be
compensated. For this reason, based on the
results of destructive and non-destructive
tests and alternative inspections, there are
many different analytical methods have been
developed by use of various criteria and
standard codes.
Applying the results of these tests and
inspections in the analytical methods
involved with uncertainties, which may have
caused because of the faults within the
operators or also normal simplifications in
analytical assessments.
But the most important point, which con-
sequently led to develop of the probabilistic
methods of life estimation, is the scattering of
the sampling domains from the different
aspects of number of elements, variety of
components and complicated service
conditions. As an example, consider a boiler
with hundreds of kilometers of tubes which a
significant percent of them are in critical
regions of very high temperature, susceptible
to high temperature corrosion and oxidation
and also erosion due to contacts of hot gas
flow and combustion products. The first and
the major problem which arises is the
sampling problem in such a described
condition.
Secondly, in-plant measurements of tube
wall thinning are performed by grinding off
the oxide to bare metal and measuring the
wall thickness using conventional ultrasonics.
This is very time-consuming, and severely
limits the number of tubes that can be
sampled. Also, only a small portion of the
tube is examined, and if this is not the most
damaged region, an excessively optimistic
life prediction may result [2].
The reliability analysis and assessment
methods for the structures containing defects
(especially pressurized components) are
Proceedings of International Conference on Mechanical & Manufacturing Engineering (ICME2008), 21– 23 May 2008, Johor Bahru, Malaysia.
© Faculty of Mechanical & Manufacturing Engineering, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia (UTHM), Malaysia.
ISBN: 97–98 –2963–59–2
taken seriously by engineers and researchers
with the development of reliability engineer-
ing and probability fracture mechanics [3].
The probabilistic estimation of the remaining
life of corroded pipelines has been exten-
sively used in the last decade [4].
The Monte Carlo simulation is one of the
conventional probabilistic methods which
have been used excessively in engineering
applications. In this study, the final super-
heater remaining creep life estimation of
Rajaee powerplant (Unit 1) which is placed
in about the west of Tehran has been carried
out by use of the Monte Carlo simulation.
In a Monte Carlo simulation, a logical
model of the system being analyzed is
repeatedly evaluated, each run using different
values of the distributed parameters. The
selection of parameter values is made
randomly, but with probabilities governed by
the relevant distribution functions. Monte
Carlo simulation can be used for system
reliability and availability modeling, using
suitable computer programs. Since Monte
Carlo simulation involves no complex mathe-
matical analysis, it is an attractive alternative
approach. It is a relatively easy way to model
complex systems, and the input algorithms
are easy to understand. There are no
constraints regarding the nature of input
assumptions on parameters such as failure
and repair rates, so non-constant values can
be used [5].
In this study the probabilistic residual
life prediction of final superheater tubes
evaluated by selecting the creep life criterion
due to the rate of wall thinning, stress
sensitivity of the creep rate and the creep
rupture life without wall thinning.
For this purpose, the wall thickness
measurement report [6] and the final report of
remaining life evaluation of boiler and
turbine critical components [7] of Rajaee
powerplant (Unit 1) are taken as reference for
all necessary information which is used
within the literature.
Monte Carlo simulation of final super-
heater tubes remaining life, have been carried
out by developing a MATLAB program.
Due to the metallurgical investigations,
the tubes microstructural components are
basically austenite accompanied with carbide
particles. In addition, there are some scattered
distinguished particles in rectangular or
polygonal shapes distributed on grain
boundaries and within the matrix (figure 1-a).
According to EDAX experiment results,
these particles were TiN. The formation of
oxide layer in outer surface and inner surface
can be detected by metallography (figure 1-b
& 1-c). Also, the existence of intergranular
attack zone and depletion zone can be
observed (figure 1-c) [7].
Figure1.Tubes microstructure:a) the base microstructure
with ordered shapes of TiN precipitates, b) the oxide
layer of the steam-side and c) the depletion zone and
intergranular corrosion of fire-side of the tube [7].
2. Experimental Method
2.1. Introducing a residual life evaluation
criterion [2]
Typical premature creep failures in
superheater and reheater tubes are associated
with significant tube wall thinning, e.g. 30%
or more. The thinning primarily results from
excess oxidation due to over temperature
exposure though, in some cases, aggressive
species in the fuel may cause increased rates
of fire-side corrosion at design temperatures.
The mathematical equation which is
introduced here is the relation between the
service life of a tube and the following three
variables:
1. rate of wall thinning,
2. stress sensitivity of the creep rate
3. creep rupture life without wall thinning.
Proceedings of International Conference on Mechanical & Manufacturing Engineering (ICME2008), 21– 23 May 2008, Johor Bahru, Malaysia.
© Faculty of Mechanical & Manufacturing Engineering, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia (UTHM), Malaysia.
ISBN: 97–98 –2963–59–2

Empirical creep equations are used and a J F

temperature adjustment can be made to the G H I
relation to allow for slight differences in
effective operating temperature. The relation Outlet HDR
permits estimations of service and residual
lives for tubes of varying wall thicknesses,
given tube burst or uniaxial creep rupture
data.

 B C D E

   1
1    1.
 0  (1) A
where K is the wall thinning rate, hour-l,
  is the creep life without corrosion, Inlet HDR

hour, n is the stress sensitivity coefficient and Figure 2. A Schematic view of Rajaee powerplant final
 is the total service life, hour. superheater (Unit 1)

By assuming the wall thinning rate as a Point F is the selected critical section for
linear relation, it can be defined as: life evaluation due to its high temperature -as
  
     (2)
 !"
where #$ is the initial wall thickness, mm,
#% is the wall thickness at the time of
inspection, mm, and &' is the life elapsed
until measurement, hour.
The creep life of tubes (tr(0)) can be
evaluated by use of Larson-Miller parameter.
Finally the residual service life (tres) can be
predicted by subtracting the elapsed time (top)
from the predicted total service life (tnr).

() 

*+ (3)
2.2. Identifying the probability distribution
functions due to required collected data
The use of Monte Carlo method requires
the parameters to be generated randomly. The
random numbers are important only when
they derived out from the real state of the
variables of the system which is being
investigated. So it will be inevitable to
recognize the type of distribution functions of
the variables which are concerned within the
investigated system.
The wall thickness measurements of
virgin tubes of final superheater, has taken as
the reference. By use of the Kolmogorov-
Smirnov test [5], the probability distribution
function of reference tubes and in-service
tubes was distinguished.
A schematic of Rajaee powerplant final
superheater (unit 1) is presented in figure 2.
a part of upper bundle in comparison with the
lower bundle- and also existence of a 90o
bending.
The employed material in final super-
heater tubes of Rajaee powerplant is 321H
(SA213-TP321H American standard steels).
This grade is from the group of 18Cr-8Ni
austenitic stainless steels (300 series).
321H is a titanium-stabilized austenitic
Cr-Ni steel for welded assemblies that cannot
be subsequently annealed and for parts to be
used at temperatures between 425 and 900oC
[8].
The creep life of the virgin tubes was
calculated by use of Larson-Miller parameter
of 347 which is in the vicinity of the 321 -due
to its properties- according to the allowable
functional stress which is approximately 93
MPa, [7], and the maximum temperature
which is assumed to be 600oC due to conser-
vativeness. The Larson-Miller parameter
diagram of the 347 is presented in figure 3.
Therefore, the creep life of virgin tubes will
be predicted to be about 1,300,000 hours.
The stress sensitivity coefficient (n) of
steels varies from 2 to more than 14 due to
different factors such as temperature, applied
stress, strain rate, creep activation energy,
transition systems and so on [10]. Take n as 5
through 10 considered to be convenient in
this literature. The precise quantity of n must
be calculated experimentally. A summery of
the results is shown in table 1.
Proceedings of International Conference on Mechanical & Manufacturing Engineering (ICME2008), 21– 23 May 2008, Johor Bahru, Malaysia.
© Faculty of Mechanical & Manufacturing Engineering, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia (UTHM), Malaysia.
ISBN: 97–98 –2963–59–2

tubes’ material. Hence, experimentally

determination of the acceptable quantities for
mentioned coefficient in each case study has
a great influence on the final result of life
prediction.

Table 2. Remaining life prediction with 1% failure

Figure 3. Larson-Miller parameter=T/1000 (20 + log t)
where T is temperature in oR and t is time in hr, taken
from 1000 hours test [9].
Table 1. Probability distribution of input parameters
Standard Distribution
Parameter Average
deviation type
Wi (mm) 5.91 0.07 normal
Wf (mm) 4.94 0.31 normal
tr(0) (hr) 1,300,000 - fixed
tm (hr) 87,000 - fixed
n 5-10 - fixed
σ (MPa) 93 - fixed
3. Results and discussion
The results of probabilistic calculations
are presented in terms of cumulative failure
probability rather than remaining life. The
remaining life is obtained by deciding what
level of failure probability is acceptable
according to the investigated system. To
conclude the level of failure, the operational
circumstances must be considered from
different points of view.
The remaining tube life prediction for
1% of failure probability which is simulated
by 10,000 random inputs is presented in table
2. The frequency of results for remaining life
prediction, which is simulated by 150,000
random inputs, is presented in figure 4.
The overall results suggest that the
remaining life of aforementioned tubes with
1% of failure probability lies approximately
between 100 through 160 thousand hours due
to the stress sensitivity coefficient selected.
Figure 5 shows the effect of stress sensitivity
coefficient on the cumulative probability
function. Therefore, by increasing the
specified n, the cumulative curves shift to the
left. This implies the effect of stress
sensitivity coefficient on the strength of
probability simulated for 10,000 times, top=87000hr
n tres (hr)
5 156,800
6 134,300
7 121,300
8 117,000
9 109,100
10 97,870
According to the figure 6, with a
constant stress sensitivity coefficient,
increasing the number of simulations, results
in converge of failure probability curve to a
special consequent. Accordingly, increasing
the number of simulations leads to increase
the reliability of the life prediction. On the
other hand the computer consuming time due
to increasing the number of simulations, must
be taken into account and a balance must be
considered between the necessary simulation
time and the degree of precision which is
expected.
It must be considered that the
preciseness level of the probabilistic
assessment depends on the precision of prob-
abilistic distribution functions determination.
Moreover, other parameters such as the creep
Figure 4. Remaining life prediction histogram for
150,000 simulations
Proceedings of International Conference on Mechanical & Manufacturing Engineering (ICME2008), 21– 23 May 2008, Johor Bahru, Malaysia.
© Faculty of Mechanical & Manufacturing Engineering, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia (UTHM), Malaysia.
ISBN: 97–98 –2963–59–2
Figure 5. Cumulative probability function for n= 5, 6, 7,
8, 9 and 10 simulated for 50,000 times
life of virgin tubes and the rate of wall
thinning have effective influence on the
remaining life predicted.
Using the Monte Carlo simulation in
probabilistic life assessment of superheater
tubes has the advantage of considering
typical variations in tube skin temperatures
and pressures, in addition, the variations
occur with location within the furnace or with
time, or both. Moreover, it can be adopted
with individual circumstances involved in
each unit within a plant.
4. Conclusion
Remaining life evaluation of critical
components of different industries can be
carried out by use of different deterministic
and stochastic methods. The paper is
primarily concerned with use of Monte Carlo
simulation as a probabilistic method. The
simulation of a specified criterion was
conducted by developing a MATLAB
program. Finally the effect of different
parameters on the reliability of predicted life
was investigated.
5. Acknowledgment
The authors gratefully acknowledge the
financial support for this study provided by
Mr. Kalouti, the manager and Mr.
Mohammadi, the heavy equipment repair
deputy of Iran Powerplant Repairs Co. and
also special thanks to Mr. Razavi for his
contributions.
Figure 6. Effect of number of simulation on convergence
of the cumulative probability function
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