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Hng dn s dng Eviews thc hnh Kinh t lng

I HC KINH T QUC DN
KHOA TON KINH T - B MN TON KINH T
_________________________________

KINH T LNG PHN 2


HNG DN THC HNH BNG PHN MM EVIEWS
BI DNG HI
Yu cu: Eviews4, DATA, DATA2, DATA3, DATA4, DATA0810
www.mfe.edu.vn, mc Th vin / D liu phn mm. ;
Vi ca s Series
View

Procs

Spreadsheet
Graph
Descriptive Statistic
Correlogram
Unit Root Test
Seasonal Adjustment
Moving Average Method
Exponential Smoothing
Hodrick-Prescott Filter

S liu
th
Cc thng k c trng
Lc t tng quan
Kim nh nghim n v
Hiu chnh yu t thi v
Hiu chnh theo trung bnh trt
San m n, kp, Holt-Winters
Lc chui

Vi ca s Equation
View

Procs

Representations
Estimation Output
Actual, Fitted, Residual
Gradients and Derivatives
Covarian Matrix
Coefficient Test
Residual tests
Correlogram Q-statistic
Histogram Normality test
Serial Correlation LM test
White Heterokedasticity
Stability test
Chow breakpoint test
Chow forecast test
Ramsey RESET test
Specify/Estimate
Forecast
Make residual series

Bi Dng Hi Khoa Ton kinh t HKTQD

Cc cch th hin khc nhau


Bng kt qu y
Cc thng tin v phn d
Cc thng tin v Gradient v o bin
Ma trn Hip phng sai cc c lng
Cc kim nh v h s
Cc kim nh v phn d
Lc t tng quan ca phn d
th, kim nh tnh phn phi chun
Kim nh t tng quan theo B-G
Kim nh phng sai sai s thay i
Cc kim nh v dng hm
Kim nh tnh ng nht gia hai on
Kim nh nh gi d bo
Kim nh nh dng hm theo Ramsey
nh dng phng trnh, mu, phng php
t tn chui c lng, nh gi d bo
t tn chui phn d

Hng dn s dng Eviews thc hnh Kinh t lng

1. M HNH C BIN TR
S dng b s liu DATA_ANNUAL trong th mc DATA3.

1.1. M hnh c tr phn phi


Thc hin cc hi quy

LS EX C GDP
LS EX C GDP(-1)
LS EX C GDP(-2)
LS EX C GDP GDP(-1) GDP(-2)
[?] Nhn xt v kt qu, so snh gia cc trng hp.

1.2. M hnh t hi quy


M hnh:
EX t = C + 0GDPt + EX t 1 + ut
LS EX C GDP EX(-1)
[?] Phn tch kt qu vi 3 cch phn tch: (1) M hnh tr v hn vi gi thit Koyck, (2) M
hnh k vng thch nghi, (3) M hnh hiu chnh b phn. Vi mi m hnh hy vit li cc
phng trnh gc v phng trnh c lng.

1.3. Tr a thc Almon


Xt m hnh tr bc 6:

EX t = C + j GDPt j + ut
j =0

Vi gi thit h s tr c dng a thc bc 2:


Thay vo s c

j = 0 + 1 j + 2 j 2

EX t = C + 0 Z 0t + 1Z1t + 2 Z 2t + ut vi

LS EX C PDL(GDP,6,2)
c kt qu: 0 = 0.115 1 = 0.007

Z it = j i GDPt j
j =0

2 = 0.033

0 = 0.164 1 = 0.004 2 = 0.089 3 = 0.115 4 = 0.075 5 = 0.032 6 = 0.206


[?] Thc hin vi m hnh tr bc 8, a thc Almon bc 2, v gii thch ngha kt qu?
[?] Thc hin vi m hnh tr bc 8, a thc Amon bc 3, v gii thch kt qu?

1.4. Kim nh nhn qu Granger


Kim nh tnh nhn qu gia EX v GDP: Trong di hn GDP c thc s tc ng n EX, v EX c
thc s tc ng n GDP hay khng?
Chn EX v GDP thnh Group, m ca s Group
[Group] View > Granger Causality Chn bc ca tr bt u t 1
[?] Vit li m hnh tng ng vi kt qu, hai bin c quan h nhn qu khng?
[?] Tng bc ca tr ln. Ti mc tr no EX khng cn l nguyn nhn ca GDP, GDP khng
cn l nguyn nhn ca EX?
______________________________________________

Bi Dng Hi Khoa Ton kinh t HKTQD

Hng dn s dng Eviews thc hnh Kinh t lng

2. HI QUY H PHNG TRNH


S dng b s liu DATA_ANNUAL trong th mc DATA3.

2.1. H phng trnh ng thi


M hnh gm hai phng trnh

EX t

GDPt

= 1 + 2GDPt + 3 IM t

+u1t

[2.1]

= 1 + 2 EX t + 3Gt + 4 I t

+u2 t

[2.2]

[?] c lng hai phng trnh bng LS thng thng v lu li kt qu so snh


LS EX C GDP IM
LS GDP C EX G I
Cc bin ni sinh: EX, GDP; cc bin ngoi sinh: C, IM, G, I
[?] nh dng hai phng trnh trong h bng iu kin Hng v iu kin Th bc.

2.2. Khai bo h phng trnh


C nhiu cch hi quy mt h phng trnh, t tn h l EX_GDP

Cch 1: Ca s lnh: SYSTEM EX_GDP


Cch 2: [Workfile] Objects > New Object > System
Cch 3: [Eview] Object > New Object > System
Ca s [System] v biu tng ca h ( EX_GDP ) trong Workfile.
Trong ca s [System], khai bo cc bin cng c v cc phng trnh. Lu bin cng c bao gm
c h s chn, v cc h s ca phng trnh k hiu l C,

INST C IM G I
EX = C(11) + C(12)*GDP + C(13)*IM
GDP = C(21) + C(22)*EX + C(23)*G + C(24)*I
[System] Estimate Ca s [System Estimation]

Nu chn OLS: kt qu ging nh hi quy ring hai phng trnh


Nu chn 2SLS: kt qu c lng bng phng php bnh phng nh nht hai bc
Nu chn 3SLS: kt qu c lng bng phng php bnh phng nh nht ba bc
thay i cc phng trnh chn [System] View > Specification hoc [System] Spec
Xem ma trn hip phng sai: [System] View > Coefficient Covarian Matrix
Kim nh v cc h s: [System] View > Wald Coefficient Test
[?] Thm vo phng trnh [2.1] bin G, v c lng li h phng trnh.
[?] Khng thm bin G vo [2.1], m thay vo l bin EXt1 , khi xc nh li bin cng
c v c lng h phng trnh.

________________________________________

3. M HNH C BIN PH THUC L NH TNH


Bi Dng Hi Khoa Ton kinh t HKTQD

Hng dn s dng Eviews thc hnh Kinh t lng

S dng b s liu BINARY_CAR trong th mc DATA4


Vi YD l thu nhp kh dng c nhn, GEN l gii tnh, CONS l chi cho tiu dng, CAR th hin s
hu t ring.

3.1. M hnh LPM


M hnh

pi = Pr ( CAR = 1/ YDi ) = E (CAR / YDi ) = 1 + 2YDi

[7.1]

LS CAR C YD
[?] c lng kh nng c t ring khi thu nhp l 120?
Xem gi tr c lng: [Equation] View > Actual, Fitted, Residuals
Lu gi tr c lng: [Equation] Forecast > tn l: CF

GENR W = (CF*(1 CF)))^0.5


LS CAR/W 1/W YD/W
[?] Vi kt qu mi, c lng kh nng c t ring khi thu nhp l 120?
[?] Xt m hnh Pr ( CAR = 1/ YDi ) = 1 + 2 ln YDi , gii thch ngha, v c lng m hnh?

3.2. M hnh Logit


M hnh

pi = Pr ( CAR = 1/ YDi ) = Logit ( 1 + 2YDi ) =

exp( 1 + 2YDi )
1 + exp( 1 + 2YDi )

Logit CAR C YD
(Hoc [Eviews] Quick > Estimate Equation > [Equation Specification] Method : Binary > Logit)
Dependent Variable: CAR
Method: ML - Binary Logit (Quadratic hill climbing)
Sample: 1 40
Convergence achieved after 4 iterations
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
z-Statistic
Prob.
C
-5.986968
1.941467 -3.083734
0.0020
YD
0.052696
0.017302
3.045689
0.0023
Mean dependent var
0.450000 S.D. dependent var
0.503831
LR statistic (1 df)
13.34465 McFadden R-squared
0.242405
Probability(LR stat)
0.000259

[?] Vit li m hnh c lng v phn tch ngha kt qu? c lng kh nng c t ring
khi thu nhp l 120? c lng mc thay i khi thu nhp tng thm 1 n v?
[?] c lng v gii thch ngha m hnh: Logit CAR C GEN
[?] c lng v gii thch ngha m hnh: Logit CAR C YD GEN GEN*YD ; khi
c lng chnh lch kh nng c t ca nam v n khi thu nhp l 120?

3.3. M hnh Probit


M hnh

pi = Pr ( CAR = 1/ YDi ) = Tobit ( 1 + 2YDi ) = ( 1 + 2YDi )

Probit CAR C YD
(Hoc [Eviews] Quick > Estimate Equation > [Equation Specification] Method : Binary > Probit)

Bi Dng Hi Khoa Ton kinh t HKTQD

Hng dn s dng Eviews thc hnh Kinh t lng

Dependent Variable: CAR


Method: ML - Binary Probit (Quadratic hill climbing)
Included observations: 40
Convergence achieved after 3 iterations
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
z-Statistic
Prob.
C
-3.455582
1.020164 -3.387279
0.0007
YD
0.030425
0.009115
3.337726
0.0008
Mean dependent var
0.450000 S.D. dependent var
0.503831
LR statistic (1 df)
13.09888 McFadden R-squared
0.237940
Probability(LR stat)
0.000295

[?] Vit li m hnh c lng v phn tch ngha kt qu? c lng kh nng c t ring
khi thu nhp l 120? c lng mc thay i khi thu nhp tng thm 1 n v?
[?] c lng v gii thch ngha m hnh: Probit CAR C YD GEN GEN*YD ; khi
c lng chnh lch kh nng c t ca nam v n khi thu nhp l 120?
[?] c lng v gii thch ngha m hnh: Probit CAR C 1/YD
________________________________________

4. LM TRN V NGOI SUY CHUI THI GIAN


S dng b s liu VN_Quaterly trong th mc DATA4.
Phn tch cho chui GDP

4.1. Ngoi suy gin n


Hi quy GDP theo bin thi gian, t bin xu th thi gian, bt u t 0 vi quan st u tin

Genr T = @trend()
Hi quy xu th thi gian tuyn tnh

LS GDP C T
Lu li chui c lng vi tn GDP1. Xem cc tiu ch nh gi d bo
[Equation] Forecast > t tn, xem RMSE, MAE, MAPE
[?] D bo gi tr ca GDP trong 1 nm tip theo?
[?] Hi quy cc m hnh ngoi suy sau, so snh nh gi, v d bo cho 1 nm tip theo
GDPt = 1 + 2 ln t + ut

GDPt = e 1 + 2 ln t +ut

GDPt = e 1 t 2 eut

4.2. Trung bnh trt (MA)


Hm trung bnh trt: @movav(X,3) =

X ( 2) + X (1) + X
3

Do , tnh trung bnh trt trung tm 3 thi k ca GDP:

GDPt 1 + GDPt + GDPt +1


3

Genr GDP_MA3 = @movav(GDP(+1),3)


[?] t chui GDP_MA9 l trung bnh trt trung tm 9 thi k ca GDP, so snh trn th cc
chui GDP, GDPMA3, GDP_MA9, so snh trung bnh, ti a, ti thiu, lch chun ca cc chui.

Bi Dng Hi Khoa Ton kinh t HKTQD

Hng dn s dng Eviews thc hnh Kinh t lng

4.3. San m (Exponential Smoothing)


M hnh san m n GDP1SE = GDP1 , GDPt SE = GDPt + (1 )GDPt SE1
Chn GDP, m ca s Series.
[Series] Procs > Exponential Smoothing
[Exponential Smoothing] > Single, v t tn chui l GDP_ESS (trong Smoothed series)
Sample: 1990:1 2008:4
Included observations: 76
Method: Single Exponential
Forecast Series: GDP_ESS
Parameters:
Sum of Squared Residuals
Root Mean Squared Error
End of Period Levels:

Alpha

Mean

0.3120
1.03E+10
11647.74
126704.1

M hnh san m kp GDPt DE = GDPt SE + (1 )GDPt DE1


[Exponential Smoothing] > Double, v t tn chui l GDP_ESD
Method: Double Exponential
Forecast Series: GDP_SED
Parameters: Alpha
Sum of Squared Residuals
Root Mean Squared Error
End of Period Levels:

Mean
Trend

0.0800
7.69E+09
10060.49
124898.5
1685.333

[?] Vi kt qu san m kp, vit cng thc d bo, v d bo GDP trong nm sau?

4.4. Hiu chnh yu t ma v


C hai m hnh: theo dng Nhn v theo dng Cng
Chn GDP, m ca s Series.
[Series] Procs > Seasonal Adjustment > Moving Average Method
M hnh dng Nhn:
[Seasonal Adjustment] Ratio to moving average Multiplicative
t tn chui sau khi hiu chnh l GDP_SAM
Ratio to Moving Average
Adjusted Series: GDP_SAM
Scaling Factors:
1
2
3
4

0.834067
1.093575
0.976339
1.122923

M hnh dng Cng:


[Seasonal Adjustment] Difference from moving average Additive, t tn chui l GDP_SAD
Difference from Moving Average
Adjusted Series: GDP_SAD
Scaling Factors:
1
2
3
4

-12361.31
5603.803
-1644.939
8402.446

[?] So snh chui GDP, GDP_SAM, GDP_SAD v nhn xt v s hiu chnh ma v.


Bi Dng Hi Khoa Ton kinh t HKTQD

Hng dn s dng Eviews thc hnh Kinh t lng

[?] Vi chui GDP_SAM, hi quy theo xu th thi gian, so snh vi kt qu trong phn 4.1; t
kt qu hi quy v cc h s hiu chnh ma v, d bo cho nm tip theo.

4.5. San m Holt-Winters


Chn GDP, m ca s Series.
Holt-Winters c xu th, khng c tnh ma v
[Series] Procs > Exponential Smoothing
[Exponential Smoothing] Holt-Winters No seasonal, t tn chui l GDP_HN
Method: Holt-Winters No Seasonal
Forecast Series: GDP_HN
Parameters: Alpha
Beta
Sum of Squared Residuals
Root Mean Squared Error
End of Period Levels:
Mean
Trend

0.0300
0.8001
6.72E+09
9401.643
126136.5
2971.115

Holt-Winters c xu th, c ma v, dng Cng


[Exponential Smoothing] Holt-Winters Additive , t tn chui l GDP_HA
Method: Holt-Winters Additive Seasonal
Forecast Series: GDP_HA
Parameters: Alpha
Beta
Gamma
Sum of Squared Residuals
Root Mean Squared Error
End of Period Levels:
Mean
Trend
Seasonals: 2008:1
2008:2
2008:3
2008:4

0.1800
0.4799
1.0000
3.02E+08
1994.939
126761.2
2052.432
-24705.60
5717.984
-290.4307
19278.05

Holt-Winters c xu th, c ma v, dng Nhn


[Exponential Smoothing] Holt-Winters Mutiplicative , t tn chui l GDP_HM
Method: Holt-Winters Multiplicative Seasonal
Original Series: GDP
Forecast Series: GDP_HM
Parameters: Alpha
Beta
Gamma
Sum of Squared Residuals
Root Mean Squared Error
End of Period Levels:
Mean
Trend
Seasonals: 2008:1
2008:2
2008:3
2008:4

0.3101
0.6000
1.0000
63598622
914.7808
125568.7
1665.087
0.790690
1.047565
1.000662
1.161083

[?] Vi ba m hnh trn, hy d bo gi tr ca GDP trong nm tip theo.


[?] So snh tt c cc kt qu d bo tnh theo cc m hnh

Bi Dng Hi Khoa Ton kinh t HKTQD

Hng dn s dng Eviews thc hnh Kinh t lng

5. QU TRNH NGU NHIN V TNH DNG


5.1. To mt s qu trnh ngu nhin
nhn bit hnh thc v tnh cht cc chui thi gian qu trnh ngu nhin, t to ra mt s chui
thi gian, gm 100 thi k.
[Eviews] New > Workfile [Workfile Range] Undatet or Irregular > End observation: 100
thun tin v sau, khi to chui xu th thi gian, v cc chui t X1 n X9, t Y1 n Y4 nhn
gi tr bng 0
Genr T = @trend()
Genr X1 = 0 Genr X9 = 0 Genr Y1 = 0 Genr Y4 = 0
To ra mt s qu trnh ngu nhin (ln lt theo th t) v xem th so snh
Qu trnh

Cu lnh

Nhiu trng
(to 2 chui c s khc bit)

Genr W1 = NRND
Genr W2 = NRND

Bc ngu nhin

Smpl 2 100
X1 = X1(-1) + W1

Bc ngu nhin c hng s

X2 = 0.3 + X2(-1) + W1
X3 = 0.2 + X3(-1) + W2

T hi quy bc 1 dng

X4 = 0.5*X4(-1) + W1

T hi quy bc 1 dng c h s chn

X5 = 3 + 0.5*X5(-1) + W1

T hi quy bc 1 dng c xu th

X6 = 2 + 0.06*T + 0.3*X6(-1) + W2

Trung bnh trt bc 1

X7 = W1 + W1(-1)
X8 = W2 + 0.7*W2(-1)

T hi quy bc 2 khng dng

Smpl 3 100
Y1 = 0.06*Y1(-1) + Y1(-2) + W1

T hi quy bc 2 dng

Y2 = 0.5*Y2(-1) + 0.4*Y2(-2) + W2

Mt s cp th so snh
W1 v X1 : chui dng v khng dng
X4 v X7: Dng AR v MA
X1 v X4: AR(1) khng dng v dng
X1 v Y1 : Khng dng AR(1) v AR(2)
X2 v X6: Xu th khng dng v dng
X4 v Y2: Dng AR(1) v AR(2)
[?] To ra chui trung bnh trt bc 2
[?] To chui t hi quy bc 3 v trung bnh trt bc 3

5.2. Lc t tng quan


nh gi v mc t tng quan, ly mu t 2 n 100 phn tch.
Chn W m ca s Series
[Series] View > Correlogram [Corelogram Specification] > Level
Cc ng gch t: khong 95% cho ACF v PACF (khong cha bc b gi thuyt

k = 0 v kk = 0 ): khng c t tng quan v t tng quan ring.


Lc t tng quan ca X1, v ca sai phn X1 ([Corelogram Specification] > 1st difference)
Bi Dng Hi Khoa Ton kinh t HKTQD

Hng dn s dng Eviews thc hnh Kinh t lng

[?] So snh lc ca X1 v sai phn, gii thch


[?] Xem lc t tng quan ca X4, X7, Y1, Y2 v nn nhn xt

5.3. Kim nh nghim n v


Kim nh tnh dng ca chui
Chn W m ca s Series
[Series] View > Unit Root Test
[Unit Root Test] > Test type: ADF ; Test in: Level ; Include : None
Bc b H0 (c nghim n v, khng dng).
Vi chui X2: kim nh nghim n v ca chui
[Unit Root Test]: ADF; Level ; None: i sang dng thm: Intercept, hoc Trend and Intercept.
Kim nh nghim n v ca chui sai phn ca X2: [Unit Root Test]: ADF; 1st difference; None
[?] Kim nh nghim n v ca chui X4 trong 3 trng hp: khng thm, thm h s chn,
thm xu th thi gian; kim nh no ph hp nht?
[?] Thc hin kim nh tng t nh trn vi X5, X6?

5.4. Kim nh ng tch hp


Kim nh xem gia hai chui khng dng X2 v X3 c ng tch hp khng
Thng thng: hi quy X3 theo X2, kim nh nghim n v vi phn d
LS X3 C X2
Series E = resid
Unit Root Test vi chui E
Kim nh Johansen
M hai chui X3 v X2 vi ca s Group
[Group] View > Cointergration Test [Johansen Cointergration Test] > OK
Thng tin dng None: H0: C 0 mi quan h ng tch hp
Thng tin dng At most 1: H0: C nhiu nht 1 mi quan h ng tch hp
Nu Thng k Trace ln hn gi tr ti hn th bc b H0.
C th thc hin kim nh cho nhiu chui, v thm cc bin ngoi sinh, thay i chn la v h s
chn, xu th,.
________________________________________

6. M HNH ARIMA V VAR


6.1. M hnh AR
Vi b s liu Exchange_week trong th mc DATA4
Xem bin EX1
V th, xt s bin ng
Kim nh Nghim n v, khi c hng s, khng c nghim n v, chui l dng

Bi Dng Hi Khoa Ton kinh t HKTQD

Hng dn s dng Eviews thc hnh Kinh t lng

Lc t tng quan: nhn thy c AR(1)


S dng m hnh AR(1) c lng v d bo
LS EX1 C AR(1)
Dependent Variable: EX1
Convergence achieved after 3 iterations
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
C
271.6288
19.48596
13.93972
AR(1)
0.761968
0.072357
10.53061
R-squared
0.693547 Mean dependent var
Adjusted R-squared
0.687292 S.D. dependent var
S.E. of regression
32.10431 Akaike info criterion
Sum squared resid
50503.66 Schwarz criterion
Log likelihood
-248.2642 F-statistic
Durbin-Watson stat
1.992794 Prob(F-statistic)

Prob.
0.0000
0.0000
283.6549
57.41089
9.814284
9.890042
110.8938
0.000000

kim nh tnh ngu nhin ca phn d


[Equation] View > Residual Tests > Correlogram Q-statistic
Chui phn d l ngu nhin, m hnh tt.
[?] Hy th vi m hnh LS EX1 C AR(1) AR(2) v nhn xt v t hi quy bc 2?
[?] Qua hy d bo v chui cho 4 quan st tip theo?

6.2. M hnh MA
Xt bin EX2 trong cng b s liu
Kim nh nghim n v, xem lc t tng quan
c lng m hnh: LS EX2 C AR(1) v nhn xt v kt qu
c lng m hnh: LS EX2 C MA(1) v nhn xt kt qu
c lng m hnh: LS EX2 C AR(1) MA(1) v nhn xt kt qu

6.3. M hnh ARMA


Vi bin EX3: hy xt m hnh cc m hnh AR(1); MA(1), v m hnh kt hp:
LS EX3 C AR(1) MA(1)
Ngoi ra c th xt yu t xu th bng cch thm bin T, hoc @trend()

6.4. M hnh VAR


c lng m hnh VAR ca hai bin EX1 v EX2 n tr bc 3
[Eviews] Quick > Estimate VAR
[Var] Basics : Unrestricted VAR ; Endogenous Variables: EX1
Endogenous: 1 3 ; Exogenous Variables : C.

Bi Dng Hi Khoa Ton kinh t HKTQD

EX2 ;

Lag Intervals for

10

Hng dn s dng Eviews thc hnh Kinh t lng

BI TP TNG HP
Cc bi tp thc hin vi = 5%

Bi s 1
S dng b s liu US_Y trong th mc DATA0810. Trong GDP l Tng sn phm quc ni, M2
l cn i tin M2, R l li sut, DEF l thm ht ngn sch.
1. Cn i tin M2 tng quan vi bin no cht ch nht, cng chiu hay ngc chiu?
2. Hi quy M2 theo GDP v R (m hnh [1]), th hai bin c lp c thc s gii thch cho s bin
ng ca bin ph thuc khng? Gii thch c bao nhiu phn trm s bin ng?
3. Dng kim nh Durbin-Watson cho bit m hnh [1] c t tng quan bc 1 hay khng? So snh
kt qu vi kim nh Breusch-Godrey? Kim nh hin tng phng sai sai s thay i bng cc
kim nh, v kim nh v dng hm ca m hnh.
4. C kin cho rng M2 ph thuc vo GDP v R khng ch cng k m cn t k trc v k
trc na. Hy thc hin hi quy (m hnh [2]) v cho bit kin c ng khng? Da trn
kt qu hi quy, c th nhn thy du hiu ca hin tng a cng tuyn trong m hnh khng?
7. Gi thit rng M2 ph thuc GDP v R di dng tr v hn, v theo gi thit ca Koyck, thc
hin m hnh t hi quy M2 theo GDP, R v tr bc mt ca M2 (m hnh [3]). Khi phn tch
tc ng ngn hn, di hn ca GDP v R n M2?
8. Vi m hnh [3], dng Durbinh kim nh t tng quan bc 1, v so snh vi kim nh
Breusch-Godfrey.
9. Xt m hnh hiu chnh sau: Cn i tin k vng l hm ca Tng sn phm quc dn v Li sut:
log M 2*t = c + 1 log GNPt + 2 log Rt + ut ; chnh lch gia cn i tin k ny v k trc c

hiu chnh qua phng trnh: log( M 2t / M 2t 1 ) = ( log M 2*t log M 2t 1 ) . Thc hin bin i v
c lng m hnh t hi quy phn tch; tnh c lng h s hiu chnh, v c lng cc h
s tc ng ca GDP v R n cn i tin k vng.
10. Xt h phng trnh:
[a] M2t = a1 + a2 GDPt + a3Rt + a4DEFt + u1t
[b] GDPt = b1 + b2 Rt
+ b3 GDPt 1
+ u2t
[c] DEFt = c1 + c2 M2t + c3 DEFt 1
+ u3t
Thc hin nh dng cc phng trnh bng iu kin cn v . c lng h bng phng php
bnh phng nh nht hai bc v phn tch kt qu. Khi nhng h s no khng c ngha
thng k, phng trnh hi quy no c h s xc nh l ln nht?

Bi s 2
Vi b s liu Data_Quarterly trong th mc DATA3
Xt m hnh gm cc phng trnh sau
IM t = 1 + 2GDPt + 3GDPt 1 + 4 EX t 1 + 5t

+u1t

EX t = 1 + 2GDPt + 3GDPt 1 + 4 IM t

+ u2 t

GDPt = 1 + 2GDPt 1 + 3 EX t 1

+u3t

1. Hy nh dng cc phng trnh trong h bng iu kin Hng v iu kin Th bc.


2. Nu cch c lng ph hp vi h phng trnh trn?

Bi Dng Hi Khoa Ton kinh t HKTQD

11

Hng dn s dng Eviews thc hnh Kinh t lng

3. Hy c lng h bng phng php bnh phng nh nht hai bc v ba bc


4. Khi thm vo phng trnh th ba bin tr bc 1 ca IM th nh dng cc phng trnh th no?
Nu c hy c lng h bng 2SLS v 3SLS.

Bi s 3
S dng b s liu US_Y trong th mc DATA0810
1. t bin gi D71 = 1 nu thi gian t nm 1971 tr i (giai on sau), v D = 0 vi thi k trc
(giai on u). Nu hi quy M2 theo D71 (m hnh [1]), xt v trung bnh th giai on sau cn
i tin M2 c nhiu hn giai on u khng? Nu c th ti a bao nhiu?
2. Hi quy M2 theo GDP, R, D71, D71*R (m hnh [2]). Vit hm hi quy mu vi hai giai on,
tm c lng im ca M2 khi GDP = 10000, R = 5. H s chn ca m hnh c khc nhau gia
hai giai on khng? Giai on no h s chn ln hn, ln hn bao nhiu?
3. Vi m hnh [3], khi li sut tng 1(%), th cn i tin M2 giai on no thay i nhiu hn,
nhiu hn ti a bao nhiu?
4. t bin Y = 1 nu c ct gim trong li sut, Y = 0 nu ngc li (tc l nu li sut k hin ti
thp hn li sut k trc R < R(-1) th Y = 1). Hi quy m hnh xc sut tuyn tnh ca Y theo sai
phn ca GDP (tng trng tuyt i ca GDP). Theo kt qu ny, nu tng trng tuyt i GDP
tng 1 t USD th kh nng c ct gim li sut thay i th no?
5. Hi quy kh nng c ct gim li sut theo tng trng kinh t tuyt i bng m hnh Logit. Hy
c lng kh nng c ct gim li sut khi tng trng l 45 t USD, nu mc tng trng tng
thm 1 t USD na th kh nng c ct gim li sut thay i th no?
6. Tr li cu hi trn nhng vi m hnh Probit.
7. Hi quy kh nng c ct gim li sut theo tng trng kinh t v tng trng cung tin M2 (sai
phn ca M2) bng m hnh Logit. c lng kh nng c ct gim li sut khi tng trng 50 t
USD v tng trng cung tin l 35 t. Khi nu tng trng cung tin tng thm 1 t th kh
nng c ct gim li sut thay i th no? Nu m hnh i thnh Probit th kt qu chnh lch so
vi m hnh Logit bao nhiu?

Bi s 4
S dng b s liu US_1947_2005 trong th mc DATA2.
Vi bin D1 nhn gi tr bng 1 nu c thng d trong ti khon vng lai (gi tt l thng d), v bng
0 nu ngc li.
1. S dng m hnh LPM c lng kh nng c thng d theo GDP, gii thch ngha kt qu?
2. Khi i sang m hnh Logit, vit m hnh v kt qu hi quy mu. c lng kh nng c thng
d khi GDP bng 4000? Phn tch tc ng ca GDP n kh nng ny, v tnh t l u th?
3. Vi m hnh Probit, c lng kh nng c thng d khi GDP bng 4000 l bao nhiu? Tc ng
ca GDP n kh nng c thng d so vi m hnh Logit th no?
4. Vi m hnh Logit, tc ng ca GDP n kh nng c thng d c ging nhau gia thi k ng
Dn ch v ng Cng ho nm quyn hay khng? (Bin D2 l bin gi xc nh ng nm
quyn). Hy c lng kh nng c thng d khi GDP bng 4000 gia hai trng hp.
5. Kt qu trong cu 4 s th no nu m hnh l Probit?

Bi Dng Hi Khoa Ton kinh t HKTQD

12

Hng dn s dng Eviews thc hnh Kinh t lng

Bi s 5
S dng b s liu Binary_Health_Insurance trong th mc DATA4
Vi HI l bin th hin vic h gia nh c mua bo him y t.
1. Phn tch tc ng ca thu nhp h gia nh n kh nng mua bo him bng hai m hnh Logit
v Probit.
2. Phn tch tc ng ca gii tnh ch h n kh nng mua bo him bng hai m hnh.
3. Phn tch tc ng ng thi ca gii tnh ch h v hc vn ch h n kh nng mua bo him?
4. Vi hai m hnh, c th cho rng vi cng mc thu nhp th ch h tt nghip c kh nng mua
bo him nhiu hn ch h khc hay khng? Nu c th khong bao nhiu nu thu nhp l 850?
5. Phn tch tc ng ca yu t tui ch h n kh nng mua bo him?

Bi s 6
S dng b s liu VN_Quarterly trong th mc DATA4.
1. Hy c lng CPI theo GDP v nhn xt v kt qu hi quy?
2. Hi quy trung bnh trt trung tm 5 thi k ca CPI theo trung bnh trt trung tm 5 thi k ca
GDP v nhn xt v kt qu, so snh vi m hnh trong cu trn.
3. S dng cc m hnh ngoi suy gin n d bo v CPI trong nm tip theo
4. S dng san m kp d bo v CPI trong nm tip theo
5. Hi quy chui san m kp ca CPI theo chui san m kp ca GDP, so snh vi cc kt qu trc.
6. Phn tch tnh ma v ca chui CPI qua hai m hnh Nhn v Cng, m hnh no ph hp hn?
7. Hi quy chui hiu chnh ma v ca CPI theo chui hiu chnh ma v ca GDP (c hai dng) v
phn tch kt qu.
8. S dng Holt-Winters dng Cng v Nhn phn tch chui CPI v d bo cho nm tip theo.
9. T kt qu m hnh Holt-Winters dng Cng ca CPI, tch yu t ma v, v nhn xt so snh
chui kt qu vi chui cng dng trong cu (6). Thc hin tng t vi kt qu m hnh nhn.
10. San bi Holt-Winters dng Nhn cho CPI v GDP, ri hi quy kt qu chui CPI theo GDP, v so
snh nhn xt vi cc m hnh thc hin.

Bi tp 7
S dng b s liu Data_Quarterly trong th mc DATA3, xt bin GDP
1. V th v nhn xt v xu th ca chui
2. S dng lc t tng quan phn on v bc ca t tng quan
3. Kim nh nghim n v vi chui trong trng hp c v khng c xu th?
4. Kim nh nghim n v vi sai phn ca chui?
5. S dng m hnh AR(1), v m hnh AR(1) AR(2) c lng chui c ph hp khng?
6. Xt chui sai phn t l DGDP, nhn xt lc t tng quan?
7. c lng m hnh AR(1) AR(2) AR(3) cho chui sai phn v nhn xt kt qu?
8. a ra m hnh t hi quy ph hp nht
9. c lng m hnh MA(1) MA(2) v nhn xt kt qu?
10. c lng m hnh ARMA(1,1) v nhn xt kt qu?

Bi Dng Hi Khoa Ton kinh t HKTQD

13

Hng dn s dng Eviews thc hnh Kinh t lng

Ph lc 1 BNG GI TR HM LOGISTIC L(u ) =

ez
1 + ez

; L( z ) = 1 L( z )

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
5.0

0.5000
0.5250
0.5498
0.5744
0.5987
0.6225
0.6457
0.6682
0.6900
0.7109
0.7311
0.7503
0.7685
0.7858
0.8022
0.8176
0.8320
0.8455
0.8581
0.8699
0.8808
0.8909
0.9002
0.9089
0.9168
0.9241
0.9309
0.9370
0.9427
0.9478
0.9526
0.9569
0.9608
0.9644
0.9677
0.9707
0.9734
0.9759
0.9781
0.9802
0.9820
0.9837
0.9852
0.9866
0.9879
0.9890
0.9900
0.9910
0.9918
0.9926
0.9933

0.5025
0.5275
0.5523
0.5769
0.6011
0.6248
0.6479
0.6704
0.6921
0.7130
0.7330
0.7521
0.7703
0.7875
0.8038
0.8191
0.8334
0.8468
0.8594
0.8710
0.8818
0.8919
0.9011
0.9097
0.9176
0.9248
0.9315
0.9376
0.9432
0.9483
0.9530
0.9573
0.9612
0.9648
0.9680
0.9710
0.9737
0.9761
0.9783
0.9804
0.9822
0.9839
0.9854
0.9867
0.9880
0.9891
0.9901
0.9911
0.9919
0.9927
0.9934

0.5050
0.5300
0.5548
0.5793
0.6035
0.6271
0.6502
0.6726
0.6942
0.7150
0.7350
0.7540
0.7721
0.7892
0.8053
0.8205
0.8348
0.8481
0.8606
0.8721
0.8829
0.8928
0.9020
0.9105
0.9183
0.9255
0.9321
0.9382
0.9437
0.9488
0.9535
0.9577
0.9616
0.9651
0.9683
0.9713
0.9739
0.9763
0.9785
0.9805
0.9824
0.9840
0.9855
0.9869
0.9881
0.9892
0.9902
0.9912
0.9920
0.9928
0.9934

0.5075
0.5325
0.5572
0.5818
0.6059
0.6295
0.6525
0.6748
0.6964
0.7171
0.7369
0.7558
0.7738
0.7908
0.8069
0.8220
0.8362
0.8494
0.8618
0.8732
0.8839
0.8938
0.9029
0.9113
0.9191
0.9262
0.9328
0.9388
0.9443
0.9493
0.9539
0.9581
0.9619
0.9654
0.9686
0.9715
0.9742
0.9766
0.9788
0.9807
0.9825
0.9842
0.9857
0.9870
0.9882
0.9893
0.9903
0.9913
0.9921
0.9928
0.9935

0.5100
0.5349
0.5597
0.5842
0.6083
0.6318
0.6548
0.6770
0.6985
0.7191
0.7389
0.7577
0.7756
0.7925
0.8085
0.8235
0.8375
0.8507
0.8629
0.8744
0.8849
0.8947
0.9038
0.9121
0.9198
0.9269
0.9334
0.9393
0.9448
0.9498
0.9543
0.9585
0.9623
0.9658
0.9689
0.9718
0.9744
0.9768
0.9790
0.9809
0.9827
0.9843
0.9858
0.9871
0.9883
0.9894
0.9904
0.9913
0.9922
0.9929
0.9936

0.5125
0.5374
0.5622
0.5866
0.6106
0.6341
0.6570
0.6792
0.7006
0.7211
0.7408
0.7595
0.7773
0.7941
0.8100
0.8249
0.8389
0.8520
0.8641
0.8754
0.8859
0.8957
0.9047
0.9129
0.9206
0.9276
0.9340
0.9399
0.9453
0.9503
0.9548
0.9589
0.9627
0.9661
0.9692
0.9721
0.9747
0.9770
0.9792
0.9811
0.9829
0.9845
0.9859
0.9873
0.9885
0.9895
0.9905
0.9914
0.9922
0.9930
0.9936

0.5150
0.5399
0.5646
0.5890
0.6130
0.6365
0.6593
0.6814
0.7027
0.7231
0.7427
0.7613
0.7790
0.7958
0.8115
0.8264
0.8402
0.8532
0.8653
0.8765
0.8870
0.8966
0.9055
0.9137
0.9213
0.9282
0.9346
0.9405
0.9458
0.9507
0.9552
0.9593
0.9630
0.9664
0.9695
0.9723
0.9749
0.9772
0.9794
0.9813
0.9830
0.9846
0.9861
0.9874
0.9886
0.9896
0.9906
0.9915
0.9923
0.9930
0.9937

0.5175
0.5424
0.5671
0.5915
0.6154
0.6388
0.6615
0.6835
0.7047
0.7251
0.7446
0.7631
0.7807
0.7974
0.8131
0.8278
0.8416
0.8545
0.8665
0.8776
0.8880
0.8975
0.9064
0.9145
0.9220
0.9289
0.9352
0.9410
0.9463
0.9512
0.9556
0.9597
0.9634
0.9668
0.9698
0.9726
0.9752
0.9775
0.9796
0.9815
0.9832
0.9848
0.9862
0.9875
0.9887
0.9897
0.9907
0.9916
0.9924
0.9931
0.9938

0.5200
0.5449
0.5695
0.5939
0.6177
0.6411
0.6637
0.6857
0.7068
0.7271
0.7465
0.7649
0.7824
0.7990
0.8146
0.8292
0.8429
0.8557
0.8676
0.8787
0.8889
0.8984
0.9072
0.9153
0.9227
0.9296
0.9358
0.9416
0.9468
0.9517
0.9561
0.9601
0.9637
0.9671
0.9701
0.9729
0.9754
0.9777
0.9798
0.9817
0.9834
0.9849
0.9863
0.9876
0.9888
0.9898
0.9908
0.9917
0.9925
0.9932
0.9938

0.5225
0.5474
0.5720
0.5963
0.6201
0.6434
0.6660
0.6878
0.7089
0.7291
0.7484
0.7667
0.7841
0.8006
0.8161
0.8306
0.8442
0.8569
0.8688
0.8797
0.8899
0.8993
0.9080
0.9161
0.9234
0.9302
0.9364
0.9421
0.9473
0.9521
0.9565
0.9605
0.9641
0.9674
0.9704
0.9731
0.9756
0.9779
0.9800
0.9818
0.9835
0.9851
0.9865
0.9878
0.9889
0.9899
0.9909
0.9918
0.9925
0.9932
0.9939

Bi Dng Hi Khoa Ton kinh t HKTQD

14

Hng dn s dng Eviews thc hnh Kinh t lng

Ph lc 2

BNG GI TR HM ( z ) =

z2
1
exp ;
2
2

( z ) = ( z )

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.0

0.3989
0.3970
0.3910
0.3814
0.3683
0.3521
0.3332
0.3123
0.2897
0.2661
0.2420
0.2179
0.1942
0.1714
0.1497
0.1295
0.1109
0.0940
0.0790
0.0656
0.0540
0.0440
0.0355
0.0283
0.0224
0.0175
0.0136
0.0104
0.0079
0.0060
0.0044
0.0033
0.0024
0.0017
0.0012
0.0009
0.0006
0.0004
0.0003
0.0002
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001

0.3989
0.3965
0.3902
0.3802
0.3668
0.3503
0.3312
0.3101
0.2874
0.2637
0.2396
0.2155
0.1919
0.1691
0.1476
0.1276
0.1092
0.0925
0.0775
0.0644
0.0529
0.0431
0.0347
0.0277
0.0219
0.0171
0.0132
0.0101
0.0077
0.0058
0.0043
0.0032
0.0023
0.0017
0.0012
0.0008
0.0006
0.0004
0.0003
0.0002
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001

0.3989
0.3961
0.3894
0.3790
0.3653
0.3485
0.3292
0.3079
0.2850
0.2613
0.2371
0.2131
0.1895
0.1669
0.1456
0.1257
0.1074
0.0909
0.0761
0.0632
0.0519
0.0422
0.0339
0.0270
0.0213
0.0167
0.0129
0.0099
0.0075
0.0056
0.0042
0.0031
0.0022
0.0016
0.0012
0.0008
0.0006
0.0004
0.0003
0.0002
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001

0.3988
0.3956
0.3885
0.3778
0.3637
0.3467
0.3271
0.3056
0.2827
0.2589
0.2347
0.2107
0.1872
0.1647
0.1435
0.1238
0.1057
0.0893
0.0748
0.0620
0.0508
0.0413
0.0332
0.0264
0.0208
0.0163
0.0126
0.0096
0.0073
0.0055
0.0040
0.0030
0.0022
0.0016
0.0011
0.0008
0.0005
0.0004
0.0003
0.0002
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001

0.3986
0.3951
0.3876
0.3765
0.3621
0.3448
0.3251
0.3034
0.2803
0.2565
0.2323
0.2083
0.1849
0.1626
0.1415
0.1219
0.1040
0.0878
0.0734
0.0608
0.0498
0.0404
0.0325
0.0258
0.0203
0.0158
0.0122
0.0093
0.0071
0.0053
0.0039
0.0029
0.0021
0.0015
0.0011
0.0008
0.0005
0.0004
0.0003
0.0002
0.0001
0.0001
0.0000

0.3984
0.3945
0.3867
0.3752
0.3605
0.3429
0.3230
0.3011
0.2780
0.2541
0.2299
0.2059
0.1826
0.1604
0.1394
0.1200
0.1023
0.0863
0.0721
0.0596
0.0488
0.0396
0.0317
0.0252
0.0198
0.0154
0.0119
0.0091
0.0069
0.0051
0.0038
0.0028
0.0020
0.0015
0.0010
0.0007
0.0005
0.0004
0.0002
0.0002
0.0001
0.0001
0.0000

0.3982
0.3939
0.3857
0.3739
0.3589
0.3410
0.3209
0.2989
0.2756
0.2516
0.2275
0.2036
0.1804
0.1582
0.1374
0.1182
0.1006
0.0848
0.0707
0.0584
0.0478
0.0387
0.0310
0.0246
0.0194
0.0151
0.0116
0.0088
0.0067
0.0050
0.0037
0.0027
0.0020
0.0014
0.0010
0.0007
0.0005
0.0003
0.0002
0.0002
0.0001
0.0001
0.0000

0.3980
0.3932
0.3847
0.3725
0.3572
0.3391
0.3187
0.2966
0.2732
0.2492
0.2251
0.2012
0.1781
0.1561
0.1354
0.1163
0.0989
0.0833
0.0694
0.0573
0.0468
0.0379
0.0303
0.0241
0.0189
0.0147
0.0113
0.0086
0.0065
0.0048
0.0036
0.0026
0.0019
0.0014
0.0010
0.0007
0.0005
0.0003
0.0002
0.0002
0.0001
0.0001
0.0000

0.3977
0.3925
0.3836
0.3712
0.3555
0.3372
0.3166
0.2943
0.2709
0.2468
0.2227
0.1989
0.1758
0.1539
0.1334
0.1145
0.0973
0.0818
0.0681
0.0562
0.0459
0.0371
0.0297
0.0235
0.0184
0.0143
0.0110
0.0084
0.0063
0.0047
0.0035
0.0025
0.0018
0.0013
0.0009
0.0007
0.0005
0.0003
0.0002
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0000

0.3973
0.3918
0.3825
0.3697
0.3538
0.3352
0.3144
0.2920
0.2685
0.2444
0.2203
0.1965
0.1736
0.1518
0.1315
0.1127
0.0957
0.0804
0.0669
0.0551
0.0449
0.0363
0.0290
0.0229
0.0180
0.0139
0.0107
0.0081
0.0061
0.0046
0.0034
0.0025
0.0018
0.0013
0.0009
0.0006
0.0004
0.0003
0.0002
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0000

0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.2

Bi Dng Hi Khoa Ton kinh t HKTQD

15

Hng dn s dng Eviews thc hnh Kinh t lng

Ph lc 3

BNG GI TR HM 0 ( z ) =

( z )dz 0.5

0 ( z ) = 0 ( z )

( z ) = 0 ( z ) + 0.5

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.0

0.0000
0.0398
0.0793
0.1179
0.1554
0.1915
0.2257
0.2580
0.2881
0.3159
0.3413
0.3643
0.3849
0.4032
0.4192
0.4332
0.4452
0.4554
0.4641
0.4713
0.4772
0.4821
0.4861
0.4893
0.4918
0.4938
0.4953
0.4965
0.4974
0.4981
0.4987
0.4990
0.4993
0.4995
0.4997
0.4998
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.5000

0.0040
0.0438
0.0832
0.1217
0.1591
0.1950
0.2291
0.2611
0.2910
0.3186
0.3438
0.3665
0.3869
0.4049
0.4207
0.4345
0.4463
0.4564
0.4649
0.4719
0.4778
0.4826
0.4864
0.4896
0.4920
0.4940
0.4955
0.4966
0.4975
0.4982
0.4987
0.4991
0.4993
0.4995
0.4997
0.4998
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.5000

0.0080
0.0478
0.0871
0.1255
0.1628
0.1985
0.2324
0.2642
0.2939
0.3212
0.3461
0.3686
0.3888
0.4066
0.4222
0.4357
0.4474
0.4573
0.4656
0.4726
0.4783
0.4830
0.4868
0.4898
0.4922
0.4941
0.4956
0.4967
0.4976
0.4982
0.4987
0.4991
0.4994
0.4995
0.4997
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.5000

0.0120
0.0517
0.0910
0.1293
0.1664
0.2019
0.2357
0.2673
0.2967
0.3238
0.3485
0.3708
0.3907
0.4082
0.4236
0.4370
0.4484
0.4582
0.4664
0.4732
0.4788
0.4834
0.4871
0.4901
0.4925
0.4943
0.4957
0.4968
0.4977
0.4983
0.4988
0.4991
0.4994
0.4996
0.4997
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.5000

0.0160
0.0557
0.0948
0.1331
0.1700
0.2054
0.2389
0.2704
0.2995
0.3264
0.3508
0.3729
0.3925
0.4099
0.4251
0.4382
0.4495
0.4591
0.4671
0.4738
0.4793
0.4838
0.4875
0.4904
0.4927
0.4945
0.4959
0.4969
0.4977
0.4984
0.4988
0.4992
0.4994
0.4996
0.4997
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.5000

0.0199
0.0596
0.0987
0.1368
0.1736
0.2088
0.2422
0.2734
0.3023
0.3289
0.3531
0.3749
0.3944
0.4115
0.4265
0.4394
0.4505
0.4599
0.4678
0.4744
0.4798
0.4842
0.4878
0.4906
0.4929
0.4946
0.4960
0.4970
0.4978
0.4984
0.4989
0.4992
0.4994
0.4996
0.4997
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.5000

0.0239
0.0636
0.1026
0.1406
0.1772
0.2123
0.2454
0.2764
0.3051
0.3315
0.3554
0.3770
0.3962
0.4131
0.4279
0.4406
0.4515
0.4608
0.4686
0.4750
0.4803
0.4846
0.4881
0.4909
0.4931
0.4948
0.4961
0.4971
0.4979
0.4985
0.4989
0.4992
0.4994
0.4996
0.4997
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.5000

0.0279
0.0675
0.1064
0.1443
0.1808
0.2157
0.2486
0.2794
0.3078
0.3340
0.3577
0.3790
0.3980
0.4147
0.4292
0.4418
0.4525
0.4616
0.4693
0.4756
0.4808
0.4850
0.4884
0.4911
0.4932
0.4949
0.4962
0.4972
0.4979
0.4985
0.4989
0.4992
0.4995
0.4996
0.4997
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.5000

0.0319
0.0714
0.1103
0.1480
0.1844
0.2190
0.2517
0.2823
0.3106
0.3365
0.3599
0.3810
0.3997
0.4162
0.4306
0.4429
0.4535
0.4625
0.4699
0.4761
0.4812
0.4854
0.4887
0.4913
0.4934
0.4951
0.4963
0.4973
0.4980
0.4986
0.4990
0.4993
0.4995
0.4996
0.4997
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.5000

0.0359
0.0753
0.1141
0.1517
0.1879
0.2224
0.2549
0.2852
0.3133
0.3389
0.3621
0.3830
0.4015
0.4177
0.4319
0.4441
0.4545
0.4633
0.4706
0.4767
0.4817
0.4857
0.4890
0.4916
0.4936
0.4952
0.4964
0.4974
0.4981
0.4986
0.4990
0.4993
0.4995
0.4997
0.4998
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.5000

Bi Dng Hi Khoa Ton kinh t HKTQD

16

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