LTE2012 WhitePaper

White Paper
LTE 2012
Markets & Trends Facts & Figures
www.idate.org
White Paper LTE 2012
Table of contents
1. LTE market forecasts (Dec. 2011) ................................................................................... 7 1.1 Market forecasts December 2011 ............................................................................ 8 1.2 Data base presentation and LTE market forecasts ................................................... 11
1.2.1 Definitions .................................................................................................................... 11 1.2.2 Information by operator ................................................................................................ 11
1.3 New LTE commercial services .................................................................................. 13 2. LTE: Strategies for MNOs............................................................................................... 14 2.1 The LTE wholesale model: high-speed dumb-pipes? ............................................... 15 2.2 LTE spectrum: already too much fragmentation ....................................................... 15 2.3 LTE network strategies and technical hurdles .......................................................... 16 2.4 Capex strategies........................................................................................................ 16 2.5 Service strategies for LTE ......................................................................................... 17 2.6 Conclusions on LTE strategies .................................................................................. 18 3. Femtocells........................................................................................................................ 19 3.1 Femtocell Momentum Returns............................................................................... 19 3.2 Vendor Evolution Accelerates................................................................................ 21 3.3 Some Hurdles, Though Surmountable .................................................................. 22 3.4 Some Recommendations ...................................................................................... 22 4. LTE devices ..................................................................................................................... 24 4.1 General trends with mobile devices .......................................................................... 25 4.2 Positioning and strategies of main LTE device players............................................. 25 4.3 Review of LTE devices availability ............................................................................ 26 4.4 Market forecasts ........................................................................................................ 27 5. Radio Spectrum ............................................................................................................... 28
www.idate.org DigiWorld by IDATE 2012
LTE 2012
LTE is gaining momentum: The Digiworld Institute by IDATE predicts that, by 2016, a total of 830 million subscribers* worldwide will have access to mobile data solutions through LTE networks. Innovative services and business models, such as investment/revenue sharing, and VoLTE which can bring benefits to both operators and subscribers, need to be deployed if operators are to maximise the potential of LTE deployment, maintain ARPU levels and have their network continue to be a smart pipe. Against a backdrop of pioneer rollouts and recent announcements, several questions emerge on the topic of LTE: How do commercial LTE networks perform in the real world? What are the LTE commercial deployments scheduled by Tier1 operators? Could LTE accelerate the consolidation of the mobile market? What is the cost of deploying LTE? Which type of operator benefits the most? Will LTE accelerate changes in pricing plans for mobile data? What are the regulatory constraints for LTE deployment? How many and what type of LTE devices will be rolled out this year?
* Forecast January 2012
In this new edition of our LTE yearbook, you will find valuable data on the central components of the LTE world, along with analyses from our experts and a comprehensive round-up of the highlights of the year gone by: LTE market forecasts (Dec. 2011) LTE: Strategies for MNOs Femtocells LTE devices Radio Spectrum
LTE Watch Service

These are just a few of the conclusions drawn from the ongoing monitoring of the globes LTE markets by IDATEs LTE Watch Service: Database: a unique, continually updated LTE market database, providing market data by Operators (+90 analysed), by country (40 covered) and by technology, along with forecasts for the coming months and up to 2016. Insights: Monthly views on key issues Analyst Access: consulting hours, analyst briefs, presentations
More information about this LTE Watch Service at the end of the report Contact: Frdric PUJOL, Radio Technologies & Spectrum Practice Manager email: f.pujol@idate.org Tel: +33 6 82 80 46 20 For more details, visit: www.idate.org
www.idate.org DigiWorld Institute by IDATE 2012
IDATE becomes the DigiWorld Institute
Founded in 1977, IDATE has gained a reputation as a leader in tracking telecom, Internet and media markets, thanks to the skills of its teams of specialized analysts. Now, with the support of close to 40 member companies who include many of the digital economys most influential players the newly rebranded DigiWorld Institute has entered into a new stage of its development, structured around three main areas of activity: A European forum open on the world: The DigiWorld Institute will take existing IDATE initiatives, such as DigiWorld Summit, and the monthly clubs in Paris, London and Brussels, to the next level. An independent observatory: The DigiWorld Institute will keep a close and continual watch on digital world industries, collect relevant data and provide benchmark analyses on market developments and innovations in the telecom, Internet and media sectors through its DigiWorld Yearbook and the DigiWorld Economic Journal, along with its comprehensive collection of market reports and market watch services that are published and made available online throughout the year.
Time-tested analysis and consultancy solutions: The DigiWorld Institute established its credibility
and independence by building multi-disciplinary teams of economists and engineers who regularly perform bespoke research and analysis on behalf of top-flight industry players and public authorities. We have also built a solid reputation in managing think tanks on the outstanding developments that are shaping the industrys future, drawing on the skills and knowledge of our members, our teams and outside experts.
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1. LTE market forecasts (Dec. 2011)

Our Top 24 LTE operators represented close to five million LTE subscriptions at the end of September 2011. It is estimated that these subscriptions represent close to 98% of all LTE subscriptions worldwide. At that time, Verizon Wireless totalled 3,165,000 LTE subscriptions, by far the most important LTE subscriber base in the world. It is followed by NTT DOCOMO and SK Telecom, underlining the rapid adoption of LTE technology in Asian countries. The first LTE operator, TeliaSonera, reported only 200,000 LTE subscribers as 2.6 GHz devices are, as yet, not widely available in Sweden.
Table 1: Rank 1 2 3 4 5 LTE subscribers Q3 2011 MNO Verizon Wireless NTT DOCOMO SK Telecom TeliaSonera Tele2 Country USA Japan South Korea Sweden Sweden Subscribers 3,165,000 388 600 250,000 200,000 105,000
Source: IDATE LTE Watch Service December 2011
The Verizon Wireless LTE base represents 66.1% of the top 15 LTE MNOs worldwide.
Table 2: Country USA Japan South Korea Sweden Uzbekistan Top 5 sub-total Top 15 sub-total Other MNOs (Top 16-24) Total (Top 24 MNOs)
Q3 2011 subscriber figures for the Top 5, Top 15 and Top 24 LTE networks MNO Verizon Wireless NTT DOCOMO SK Telecom TeliaSonera MTS LTE subscribers 3,165,000 388,600 250,000 200,000 100,000 4,103,600 4,789,600 112,500 4,902,100
1.1 Market forecasts December 2011

In this section, IDATE forecasts the rates of LTE adoption between 2011 and 2015. By LTE adoption, we mean the number of subscribers who access mobile data via the LTE network. In 2010, there were about 142,000 LTE subscribers worldwide. Almost all LTE devices activated during 2010, including USB data cards, modems and notebooks, were singlemode. Dual-mode (3G/LTE) and/or dual-mode & multiple frequency devices appeared early in 2011. This year, LTE smartphones, tablets and M2M devices appeared, mainly for Verizon Wireless in the 700 MHz band. It is expected that, by the end of 2013, a significant portion of LTE devices will support both FDD and TDD duplex modes. TD-LTE deployments in India, China and many other countries in the Asia-Pacific, Latin America and Middle East regions and, to a lesser extent, Europe, will fuel this growth. We anticipate that more than 80% of LTE devices will also support 3G and, in most cases, 2G in 2014. A limited number of LTE devices will support Mobile WiMAX in order to facilitate smooth transition for operators switching to TD-LTE. The main change, in comparison to the previous version of the database published in June 2011, is in the higher forecasts for such countries as the USA and South Korea, and the Latin American and Africa/Middle East regions. Adjustments made for 2011 take into account the progress in deployment by major operators in the following countries and geographical areas:
North America
USA is by far the leading LTE market today with around 3,200,000 subscribers at end-Q3 2011. The US market is really pulling the LTE ecosystem with massive deployments by Verizon Wireless, the AT&T Mobility launch this year, the activity of Tier 2 players (Metro PCS, US Cellular) and the plans of Sprint Nextel and Clearwire for LTE technology. Even if LightSquared is experiencing technical difficulties with the interference generated by its network to the GPS devices, it still represents a very significant LTE deployment in the USA. The plans of Dish to implement a wholesale LTE network using its S-Band spectrum are also contributing to the rapid adoption of LTE technology. The switch by Clearwire switch to TD-LTE in 2013 means that more than 10 million Mobile WiMAX subscribers will migrate to TD-LTE in a one- or two-year time frame. These elements lead us to raise our 2015 forecasts. Thus, at the end of 2015, we anticipate that 138.6 million subscribers will be accessing LTE networks (compared with 117 million in our June 2011 forecasts). The USA will then continue to be the leading LTE market worldwide. Canada: Rogers Wireless launched LTE commercial service in July 2011. Our forecasts for 2011 were revised to take this launch into account. Our forecasts are now that there will be 140.5 million LTE subscribers at the end of 2015 in North America.
Latin America
The first commercial deployments will be in 2012. Latin America has already started to allocate spectrum for LTE and TD-LTE and LTE FDD deployments will be seen next year. Brazil will play a key role in this region In most Latin American countries, the digital dividend spectrum will be assigned after 2012 but various spectrum bands are planned for LTE: 2.6 GHz, 1800 MHz, AWS, PCS We forecast that there will be 31.6 million LTE subscribers in 2015 at the end of 2015 in Latin America.
Asia
Japan: the initial deployment by NTT DOCOMO was limited to only 9% of the population at the end of 2010. By 2014, NTT DOCOMO plans to provide LTE services to 50% of the population. At the end of 2015, it is anticipated that 26.5 million subscribers will be accessing LTE networks in Japan. South Korea: the two leading operators in South Korea, SK Telecom and KTF, launched LTE in 2011 but KT was barred by a class action related to the switch-off of its 2G network in the 1800 MHz band. The South Korean regulator auctioned off LTE spectrum in August 2011 in the 1.8 GHz, 2.1 GHz and 800 MHz bands. At the end of 2015, we anticipate that 18 million subscribers will be accessing LTE networks in South Korea (compared with 16.8 in our June 2011 forecasts). India: in 2010, the Broadband Wireless Access (BWA) auctions for the 2.3 GHz were technology-neutral. This spectrum will mainly be used for TD-LTE networks. The Indian Department of Telecommunications (DoT) has kick-started the sale process for spectrum in the 700MHz band with a view to selling off the frequencies in 2012. We expect to see the first TD-LTE services in India in S1 2012 and forecast close to 39 million LTE subscribers by the end of 2015. The availability of TD-LTE devices will be key to the take-up of LTE technology in India. China: grave uncertainty persists concerning the green light from the government for TDLTE deployment. We expect this decision to be further delayed as the government is still obliging China Mobile to continue its TD-SCDMA deployment. China Mobile is heavily committed to TD-LTE and building its TD-SCDMA network so that cell sites and other network elements may be re-used for the LTE network. With its massive 1.3 billion population, China has vast numbers of potential mobile subscribers. We expect that a few more than 43 million subscribers will be accessing LTE networks by the end of 2015.
Europe
Sweden: our figures were adjusted in order to reflect the subscriber figures for TeliaSonera and Tele2 + Telenor. TeliaSonera was the first mobile operator to launch LTE. However, its early deployment took place in the 2.6 GHz band and this, it turned out, did not get timely support from chipset and device manufacturers. Digital dividend spectrum was allocated in early 2011 in Sweden and this will help to establish a national footprint for LTE services. In September 2011, there were close to 300,000 LTE subscribers in Sweden. By the end of 2015, we forecast 5.4 million subscribers in the country which pioneered LTE. Germany was the first European country to auction the digital dividend spectrum in 2010 and commercial service was launched by Vodafone Germany at the end of last year. After covering rural areas using the digital dividend, operators are now implementing 1800 MHz and 2600 MHz networks and will extend LTE coverage in the digital dividend. There were fewer than 1,000 subscribers at end-2010 and a mere 78,000 at the end of Q3 2011. These figures, lower than expected, are reflected in our downwardly-adjusted December 2011 forecasts for end-2011: 325,000 LTE subscriptions instead of 541,000. Our forecast is for 86 million LTE subscribers for the end of 2015 in Western Europe.
Central and Eastern Europe

Central and Eastern Europe already have a clutch of commercial LTE networks (Estonia, Latvia, Poland). In Russia, Yota is deploying a wholesale TD-LTE network which will be used by the main mobile operators. We shifted our June 2011 forecasts as commercial launch has been postponed from end-2011 to 2012. Our present forecasts are that there will be 24.3 million LTE subscribers at the end of 2015 in Eastern Europe.
Middle East and Africa

Saudi Arabia: the three MNOs, Etisalat-Mobily, Zain Saudi Arabia and Saudi Telecom Company (STC), launched LTE services this year and had approximately 30,000 LTE subscribers in September 2011. In Africa, tests are under way in South Africa but commercial services are not expected next year. We forecast that there will be 32.3 million LTE subscribers at the end of 2015 in the Middle East and Africa region.
All together now: 456 million subscriptions by end-2015

By the end of 2015, we forecast, there will be more than 456 million LTE subscriptions worldwide. Of these, Asia-Pacific will represent 31.3% of the total, North America 30.7% and Western Europe 18.9%. Our market forecasts by region are in the following table.
Table 3: Country Argentina Australia Brazil Canada China China India India Italy Italy Japan Malaysia Mexico Philippines Russia Russia Taiwan USA USA Leap Wireless US Cellular Telus China Mobile China Telecom Reliance Industries Augere Telecom Italia 3 KDDI P1 Networks America Movil Globe Vimpelcom Megafon Chunghwa Telecom LightSquared Sprint USA USA Optus Planned LTE commercial services (major countries and operators - 2012) Operator Date 2012 April 2012 2012 Q1 2012 2012 2012 S1 2012 Q2 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 Q1 2012 Q1 2012 Q1 2012 Q1 2012 1800 MHz 450 MHz, 2.6 GHz AWS bands 2.6 GHz & 2.3 GHz 2.6 GHz & 2.3 GHz 2.3 GHz 2.3 GHz 2.6 GHz 1800 MHz 1.5 GHz & 800 MHz 2.6 GHz & 2.3 GHz 1.7 GHz & 2.1 GHz 2.1 GHz 2.6 GHz (Yota) 2.6 GHz (Yota) 2.6 GHz & 700 MHz 1.5-1.6 GHz 1900 MHz +Agreement with LightSquared 700 MHz Frequency band
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Table 4: Region
LTE market forecasts LTE subscriptions 2010 2 65 7 70 0 0 144 2011 1,909 1,368 46 11,672 0 126 15,121 2012 9,537 4,816 1,547 32,640 727 883 50,150 2013 30,444 15,668 3,600 61,826 3,043 3,420 118,000 2014 71,602 45,547 11,592 96,280 10,572 12,530 248,123 2015 143,274 86,405 24,286 140,555 31,574 32,266 458,360
Asia-Pacific Western Europe Central & Eastern Europe North America Latin America Africa Middle East Total
1.2 Data base presentation and LTE market forecasts

In this version of the LTE database, we detail the plans of 71 operators who have launched or announced LTE developments. The plans of 76 other operators are also presented. In addition, we describe the regulatory situation regarding LTE in 43 countries.
1.2.1 Definitions
The database focuses primarily on developments in Long Term Evolution Frequency Division Duplex (LTE-FDD) and Time Division Duplex (TD-LTE). We also present Mobile WiMAX developments in the USA because the strategies of both Clearwire and Sprint have a direct impact on LTE developments there, with the plans of Verizon Wireless and AT&T being influenced by the presence of the Mobile WiMAX operator. This year, Clearwire has dropped Mobile WiMAX and is going to switch to TD-LTE in 2013. Yota in Russia is also part of the database as the Mobile WiMAX operator is now implementing a LTE overlay.
1.2.2 Information by operator

The database provides the following information on each operator: Technology Deployment Spectrum Technical data and main vendors Outsourcing and sharing Capex Services and tariffs Subscribers and ARPU
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Operators covered
The 60 mobile operators covered in detail in the database are as follows:
76 operators (64 in the June 2011 edition of the data base) are included in the other operators sheet.
Geographical zones and countries

In comparison to the June 2011 edition, five countries have been added: three in the Middle East (Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and UAE), and Singapore and Vietnam.
Table 5: Asia-Pacific Australia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Japan Malaysia New Zealand Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan Uzbekistan Vietnam Geographical Zones & Countries Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Mexico North America Canada USA Central and Eastern Europe Estonia Hungary Poland Russia Turkey Western Europe Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Ireland Italy Netherlands Norway Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland The UK Middle-East Bahrain Saudi Arabia UAE
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1.3 New LTE commercial services

The LTE ecosystem is growing in strength, with close to 250 operators having already announced their commitment to LTE technology. As of end-November 2011, 37 operators have launched a LTE service; many commercial launches are planned for 2012.
Table 6: Operator A1 (Telekom Austria) Aero2 CSL DOCOMO Elisa EMT MetroPCS MTS Net4Mobility Telenor & Tele2 Omnitel Smart Communications T-Mobile TeliaSonera TeliaSonera TeliaSonera TeliaSonera UCell Verizon Wireless Vodafone
Source: IDATE June 2011
Early LTE deployments (2009-1H 2011) Country Austria Poland Hong-Kong Japan Finland Estonia USA Uzbekistan Norway Lithuania Philippines Germany Denmark Finland Norway Sweden Uzbekistan USA Germany Date 11/2010 09/2010 11/2010 12/2010 12/2010 12/2010 09/2010 08/2010 11/2010 04/2011 04/2011 04/2011 12/2010 05/2010 12/2009 12/2009 08/2010 11/2010 12/2010 Frequency band 2.6 GHz 1800 MHz 1800 MHz & 2.6 GHz 2.1 GHz 2.6 GHz 2.6 GHz 1.7/2.1 GHz (AWS) 2.6 GHz 2.6 GHz 2.6 GHz 2.6 GHz 800 MHz 2.6 GHz 2.6 GHz 2.6 GHz 2.6 GHz 2.6 GHz 700 MHz 800 MHz
Table 7: Operator M1 SK Telecom LG U+ O2
H2 2011 LTE deployments Country Singapore South Korea South Korea Germany Canada Austria Canada Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia USA UAE Australia Denmark Austria Une EPM Uruguay Date 06/2011 07/2011 07/2011 07/2011 07/2011 07/2011 09/2011 09/2011 09/2011 09/2011 09/2011 09/2011 09/2011 10/2011 11/2011 12/2011 12/2011 Frequency band 1800 MHz and 2.6 GHz 1800 MHz and 800 MHz 2.1 GHz 800 MHz and 2.6 GHz AWS bands 2.6 GHz PCS 2.3 GHz 2.3 GHz or 2.6 GHz ? 2.6 GHz 700 MHz 2.6 GHz 1800 MHz 2.6 GHz 2.6 GHz 2.6 GHz 2.6 GHz
Rogers Wireless T-Mobile Bell Mobility Mobily STC Zain AT&T Mobility Etisalat Telstra TDC Hi3G Colombia Antel
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2. LTE: Strategies for MNOs

Main Findings
The LTE ecosystem is experiencing a phase of remarkable growth, with many positive indicators: Numerous LTE commercial launches took place in 2011: in November 2011, there were more than 30 LTE commercial networks in operation around the world. The ecosystem is growing from strength to strength with more than 200 operators already having announced their commitment to LTE technology In the USA, Verizon Wireless is reporting significant LTE growth with more than three million LTE subscribers in October 2011 and is rapidly developing its LTE coverage Many players are showing an interest in the LTE wholesale model: LightSquared, Clearwire and Dish in the USA, Yota in Russia, NBN in Australia LTE will dominate the 4G field: the LTE ecosystem is narrowing the mobile WiMAX market. LTE-Advanced will be here sooner than expected: first real-scale deployments are expected in 2013. TD-LTE is now commercial in Saudi Arabia and should be launched in the coming months in India. It is expected that most chipsets will support both the TDD and FDD mode. TDLTE is now seen as a complement to LTE FDD in many countries More devices are becoming available: close to 200 LTE devices were available in early October 2011. Many smartphones are offered by Verizon, NTT DOCOMO or AT&T. A variety of devices is coming to the market: dongles, personal hotspots, tablets, smartphones, M2M devices, fixed routers and more. Operators remain generally cautious in their network expenditure but their mobile capex is slightly on the rise with a growth of 0.6% in 2010. Service strategies: most operators have so far only launched LTE data services. LTE can be used as a tool against white spots in rural areas taking advantage of using the digital dividend. Other services such as Cloud Gaming, connected cars, smart metering, home automations, surveillance systems are being researched by operators. New tariffing schemes are appearing for LTE with a greater variety of options: speed, monthly caps, QoS LTE is mainly implemented for additional capacity and is also driving costs down for mobile operators. With the LTE ecosystem growing so rapidly, IDATE forecasts that there will be more than 379 million LTE subscribers worldwide by the end of 2015. However, it should be noted that some hurdles remain: Spectrum fragmentation is increasing: 13 frequency bands are already in use for LTE networks or planned for the coming year LTE devices availability is a hurdle (for instance in the 2.6 GHz band) today in Western Europe The auction process has once more been delayed in the United Kingdom, causing additional delay to LTE starting there Voice over LTE (VoLTE) is mainly a long-term concern for most operators
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2.1
The LTE wholesale model: high-speed dumb-pipes?

In the USA, newcomers such as LightSquared and Dish have based their strategy upon the availability of new spectrum which can provide capacity in a context of growing saturation of the mobile networks. LightSquared have also put considerable effort in very quickly signing deals with resellers in order to strengthen its business case. Among them are MVNOs, regional mobile operators, cable TV operators and electronic goods distributors. The presence of three wholesale players in the USA (LightSquared, Dish and Clearwire) is certainly not sustainable in the long run. Countries such as Kenya and perhaps Mexico seem to be considering a regulatory obligation for LTE wholesale operation. The objective is to enable the provision of LTE services in markets where it would not be sustainable for existing mobile operators to implement separate LTE infrastructures.
Figure 1: LTE wholesale players
Source: IDATE
2.2
LTE spectrum: already too much fragmentation

There is increasing fragmentation of the LTE spectrum with new frequency bands being used or planned for LTE (see table below). Auctions in Western Europe have attracted high bids: in September 2011, the digital dividend was sold at a higher price in Italy (85.5 cents per MHz per pop) than during previous auctions in Germany (70 cents), Spain (50 cents), Sweden (31 cents) and in the USA (70 cents). The 1800 MHz band is becoming more attractive for LTE operations as GSM traffic is moving to 3G bands (2.1 GHz and 900 MHz). Operators in Western Europe and AsiaPacific are starting LTE services in this band with dongles. Spectrum allocation is (again) being delayed in the United Kingdom.
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2.3
LTE network strategies and technical hurdles

TD-LTE and LTE FDD are seen as complementary. The choice between the TDD and FDD versions of LTE is generally dictated by the available spectrum TD-LTE real take-off is expected when India and China implement the technology. The former is expected to start commercial service end-2011, early 2012. Interest in LTE-Advanced is increasing as DOCOMO, SK Telecom in South Korea and Clearwire have announced their intention to rapidly implement this evolution of the technology. The 2013 objective set up by Clearwire and SK Telecom shows a two-year shift of the initially expected launch of LTE-Advanced. Carrier aggregation is expected to be a major enhancement for the downlink. VoLTE is slowly being implemented by mobile operators. Front-runners MetroPCS and Verizon in the USA will implement VoLTE in 2012. Transition from mobile WiMAX to TD-LTE is accelerating as support to Mobile WiMAX wanes from both equipment vendors and operators Femtocells will bring additional capacity and play a very significant role in LTE development in the medium to long term. SK Telecom and NTT DOCOMO have already announced their plans to deploy LTE femtocells rapidly.
2.4
Capex strategies
Operators remain generally cautious in their network expenditures but their mobile capex is slightly on the rise with a growth of 0.6% in 2010. The limited capex requires innovation in investment models with operators increasingly considering network sharing. The network-sharing business model remains one way to bring down capex, as seen in Sweden with the Net4Mobility joint venture between Tele2 and Telenor. In the US, if approved by the FCC, Sprint and LightSquared are about to make a deal of USD 9 billion allowing the acceleration of the deployment of a LTE network. Mobile operators are also considering new type of network architecture for LTE deployment with heterogeneous elements composed of macro-cells and small cells. By deploying small cells, operators can meet capacity requirements at a lower cost than full deploying macrocells. LTE is driving the need to upgrade backhaul, which weighs heavily in mobile network operator costs sometimes up to 40% of network costs. Microwave and fibre are the predominant technology of choice in meeting LTE requirements. Given cost considerations, operators are thinking of the possible reuse of existing FTTH infrastructure. Moreover, the configuration of the future RAN architecture with small cells and Remote Radio Head implying a long distance of several kilometres of backhaul will favour the use of fibre. Migration to LTE can be undertaken smoothly for an operator with the integration, or the reuse, of its existing 3G infrastructure assets reducing up-front investment. LTE clearly results in lower cost per MB of capacity than 3G network can offer, and especially when taking into account a busy hour traffic load
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2.5
Service strategies for LTE

We anticipate that mobile traffic will reach more than 127 EB in 2020, representing a 33-fold increase compared with the 2010 figure. By 2020, Asia will represent 34.3% of total mobile traffic followed by Europe (22%) and the Americas (21.4%).
Figure 2: Mobile voice and data traffic 2010-2020 (Yearly EB)
Source: IDATE January 2011
To handle this growth, many mobile operators will implement HSPA+ features in their networks and LTE is seen as the medium-term solution. LTE is an opportunity for operators to increase ARPU with benefits valued by the consumer. In building their offers, mobile operators must find different criteria for segmenting their offerings, namely: segmentation by bandwidth, segmentation by the volume of data that can be transferred, segmentation by usages, premium subscriptions based upon quality of service and on the longer term. Content-based pricing is also a future option for mobile operators. LTE services: most operators launched LTE data services only. LTE can be used as a tool against white spots in rural areas taking benefit from the use of the digital dividend. Other services such as connected cars, smart metering, home automations, surveillance systems are being investigated by operators. These services are actually more oriented to B2B or B2B2C, relying on a M2M business model. In Japan, DOCOMO has partnered with Ubitus and NHN Japan to provide Cloud Gaming services on its two LTE tablets from Samsung and Fujitsu. This service consists in hosting the game on servers which render games that require graphics computing on the server cloud and processes gaming media into streaming video. More generally, LTE operators eventually plan to offer their fixed broadband services on LTE. These services are a kind of over-the-top service and are often the adaptation of existing services with high definition content.
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2.6
Conclusions on LTE strategies

The first LTE commercial launch and strategies of the major the main operators are shaping the key trends in LTE development in the years ahead: LTE is mainly implemented for additional capacity LTE is also driving costs down for mobile operators LTE will dominate the 4G field: the LTE ecosystem is narrowing the mobile WiMAX market LTE devices availability is a hurdle (2.6 GHz band) today in Western Europe Spectrum fragmentation for LTE is slowing down roaming prospects More network sharing will be encouraged by spectrum scarcity in the digital dividend and business models sustainability in specific developing markets Voice (VoLTE) is mainly a long-term concern for most operators LTE femtocells will play a key role in LTE deployments LTE-Advanced will be here sooner than expected: first real-scale deployments are expected in 2013. Last year, 2015 was the target for LTE-Advanced deployments. TD-LTE is now seen as a complement to LTE FDD in many countries LTE in the digital dividend can be used as a substitute to the fixed network as shown in Germany, Australia and planned by Verizon Wireless The LTE wholesale model is developing worldwide with many implementations around the world
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3. Femtocells
Main Findings
IDATE estimates that the worldwide femtocell access point market will reach a cumulative total of 39.4 million deployed units by 2015, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 71% between 2011 and 2015. The Americas will account for 19.8 million unit shipments, or 50.4% of the worldwide total, representing CAGR of 72% between 2011 and 2015. Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) is expected to account for 6.7 million units by 2015, representing 17.1% of the worldwide total and CAGR of 64%. We estimate that unit deployments in the Asia Pacific (APAC) will amount to 12.8 million by 2015, representing 32.5% of the total worldwide and CAGR of 73%.
Figure 3: Femtocell Unit Shipments, 2010 to 2015 (000)
Global Femtocell Deployments 2010-2015 (000)

Femtocell Unit Deployments (000)
2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: IDATE
3.1 Femtocell Momentum Returns

Following a slow start, the number of operators launching commercial femtocell services is increasingly quite rapidly in the Americas; Asia Pacific; and, Europe, Middle East and Africa. In the past year the number of live femtocell networks has doubled; there are now 30-plus deployments in more than 20 countries, including eight of the worlds largest operators by revenue.
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Table 8: Operator AT&T Sprint Verizon China Unicom KDDI NTT DoCoMo Optus SingTel SK Telecom SoftBank StarHub Vodafone Vodafone
Commercial Femtocell Deployment Summary Country US US US Asia Pacific China Japan Japan Australia Singapore South Korea Japan Singapore Australia New Zealand EMEA UK Moldova Spain Russia Norway Portugal France Romania France Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Qatar Spain UK December 2009 July 2010 November 2009 April 2011 January 2010 December 2010 June 2010 November 2008 May 2011 February 2011 October 2010 November 2010 August 2010 May 2011 February 2011 December 2009 May 2011 May 2011 December 2009 July 2010 May 2011 February 2011 May 2011 June 2010 June 2010 July 2009 Launch Date April 2010 December 2007 January 2009
Everything Everywhere Moldtelecom Movistar MTS Network Norway Optimus Orange Orange SFR Vodafone Vodafone Vodafone Vodafone Vodafone Vodafone Vodafone Source: IDATE, various
Increasingly, a far greater degree of emphasis is being placed on outdoor (metro and rural), enterprise and LTE femtocells under the small cells heading, thereby widening the addressable market. Femtocell access point (FAP) prices have now reached EUR 100, though care needs to be taken in terms of what is encompassed by that figure. While femto-based services are broadly lacking at this early stage, AT&T, Vodafone and Sprint are currently ahead in terms of deployments.
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Figure 4:
Selected Operators Strategic Positioning
Source: IDATE
3.2 Vendor Evolution Accelerates

The femtocell vendor environment is going through a process of rapid evolution. While the sector was dominated initially by a handful of small, specialist vendors - including ip.access, Ubiquisys and Airvana - this is no longer the case. Major telecom equipment vendors - including Alcatel-Lucent, Cisco, Hitachi, Huawei, NEC, Nokia-Siemens Networks (NSN), Samsung Electronics and ZTE - are now engaged in this market. In addition, the recent emergence of a new category of mainly Taiwanese femtocell ODMs (Original Design Manufacturers) is shaking up the industry once again. This latter category of vendors is acting to drive down prices as it benefits from the rise of open standards, adding to the likelihood that mass-market volumes will be achieved. Likewise in the femtocell chipset sector, while Picochip - a pure-play small cells pioneer has a clear and substantial lead, the number of viable and interested players has increased greatly. Broadcom (via its acquisition of femtocell specialist Percello), Texas Instruments and Qualcomm are all now devoting considerable resources to the sector.
Figure 5: Selected Femtocell Vendors Strategic Positioning
Source: IDATE
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3.3 Some Hurdles, Though Surmountable

From the operator point of view, femtocells offer a cost-effective means of providing additional coverage and capacity while reducing capital and operating costs and improving retention. The concept of femtocell-enabled data offload is steadily gaining ground and it is likely that, once the market develops further, a range of new femtocell-based business models will emerge. From the consumer perspective, femtocells offer improved residential cellular coverage, potentially lower in-home call charges and the ability to use one handset both in and out of the home. The biggest source of competition to femtocells comes from the growing ubiquity of Wi-Fi, which certain operators believe has greater momentum and is better suited to data applications than femtocells. On the other hand, Wi-Fi lacks a voice capability and offers inferior battery life, while many handsets are not Wi-Fi compatible. There are growing signs, however, that both technologies could be combined in a single unit in future; already FAP vendor Contela offers a combined Wi-Fi/femtocell solution while Huawei has spoken publicly of the desirability of such devices for indoor use.
IDATE believes the femtocell sector will grow in importance over the coming years as the
small cells concept develops into an over-arching strategic approach encompassing both coverage and capacity considerations.
3.4 Some Recommendations

In terms of the residential market, it seems to IDATE that there remains something fundamentally wrong with the way in which femtocells have been presented to date. From the end users perspective, femtocells - though clearly meeting a need - remain a solution to a problem not of their own making, and one which many consumers would expect to be rectified at the service providers expense rather than their own. Service providers are effectively offering their subscribers the ability to bring service levels up to an acceptable standard for an additional fee. Clearly, this is not the case everywhere, and Japanese as well as some US operators in particular are taking a different approach, but the perception that users are being required to pay extra to attain a satisfactory service surely remains an uncomfortable one for the femtocell industry. The fact that consumers pay also the operating costs, thereby saving the operators OPEX, could also be said to add insult to injury. If consumers were to receive in return meaningful extra value for their investment, in addition simply to receiving better coverage, then the balance might be better redressed. The fact remains, however, that such added value is very little in evidence and earlier predictions that consumers would be offered benefits - such as free calls within the home or preferential data usage rates have thus far largely failed to materialise. In addition, having to date represented femtocells almost exclusively as a coverage solution, operators have encouraged the perception among subscribers that their service is below par. Instead, in the view of IDATE, operators should either present femtocells as a premium solution that will bring dedicated coverage to a household, along with much improved quality of service (and charge accordingly), or take the logical step following from the more prevalent message and provide femtocells free of charge to those customers suffering sub-standard coverage. Many in the industry believe that the provision of femtocell access points free of charge is commercially viable, and that the cost savings associated with offloading would justify such a move. In addition, Alcatel-Lucent has stated that operators could justify offering a free small cell to customers consuming 1GB of data per month due to the improvement in performance that would be delivered to the macro network. The vendor adds that this is
22
so even without taking into account the fact that operators are able to deliver improved residential coverage and maintain quality-of-service for high-spending users, enabling them to reduce churn among the most lucrative customer base. IDATE believes, however, that offering femtocells free of charge on a mass scale would be a retrograde step and that it would represent, in effect, an acknowledgement of defeat. Instead, IDATE believes that operators should focus their marketing efforts on the premium nature of femtocells and actively sell the proposition as a guarantor of superior, dedicated coverage and valuable services rather than simply as a fix to the problem of poor coverage. As tiered data pricing becomes increasingly common, the concept of paying for higher data rates and guaranteed quality of service will likely take root among consumers, and this gives operators the perfect opportunity to present femtocells as a means of ensuring premium service in the home. At the same time, operators could retain the option of offering femtocells free of charge to high value customers as well as those suffering subpar coverage on a case-by-case basis.
23
4. LTE devices
Main findings
The LTE ecosystem is growing from strength to strength with more than 200 operators already having announced their commitment to LTE technology. By the end of June 2011, 19 operators had launched LTE service and at least 16 more are expected during the second half of the year. The general trends to be observed with mobile devices are the rising use of sensors, increased power available at lower cost and the multiplication of third-party applications and usages enabled by application storefronts. The success of chipset manufacturers will depend on how they respond to the need of mobile devices for skills in other areas than baseband The challenges For LTE device manufacturers will be how to optimise the integration of 4G into existing devices, as well as the obvious challenges of technical issues, cost, Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) and Time To Market. For Mobile Network Operators, mobile devices are also key in promoting their new ultra fast networks. So far, Verizon has been catching most of the evolved LTE FDD devices announced, this will surely change soon, especially in Asia and, later on, in Europe. The fragmentation of LTE frequency bands across the world is proving to be a hurdle for mobile operators with specific bands. Preferred LTE bands around the world are likely to be the Digital Dividend (700 MHz in the USA, 800 MHz in Europe), 1800 MHz and 2600 MHz bands. LTE devices with a VoLTE (Voice over LTE) function will appear in 2012 and will initially be dedicated mainly to Verizon Wireless Following the early LTE dongles, mobile hotspot devices such as MiFi-like have entered the scene along with fixed LTE routers for specific markets, where LTE is presented as an alternative to fixed broadband, especially in rural areas. As for more evolved devices such as smartphones and tablets, it is only the US market that has seen products developed for it. Other kinds of devices such as eReaders, mobile gaming devices or machine-to-machine (M2M) communication modules, still await their market. With LTE ecosystem growing so rapidly, IDATE forecasts that there will be more than 379 million LTE subscribers worldwide by the end of 2015. We forecast shipments of close to 252 million LTE devices in 2015 worldwide. From a worldwide perspective, these shipments should represent 15% of all mobile device shipments by then.
24
4.1 General trends with mobile devices

Although LTE can be considered as a decent improvement for mobile devices, it is not in itself what will finally make the consumer choose one device or another. It is a nice-to-have feature that complements other, must-have features. Here, we see the general trends that are shaping the devices of today and tomorrow, trends which can be synthesised as such: More and more sensors will be available in mobile devices to improve global user experience. These sensors, that will be progressively cheaper as penetration continues with accelerometers, gyroscope, magnetometers, light sensors and proximity sensors. Ever more processing power will be available, thanks to multi-core ARM-based processors and powerful Graphical Processing Units. While high-end devices will be more powerful, processor innovation will gradually penetrate the lower-end market. Those innovations on the hardware side will foster mobile application storefront development thanks to both the supply and demand side. New usages will drive both data consumption and demand for new devices.
4.2 Positioning and strategies of main LTE device players

The advent of a new Radio Access Network technology is often a game-changer in the mobile industry. It brings with it a raft of new challenges but, above all, new opportunities for players in the industry, especially chipset manufacturers, mobile device manufacturers and Mobile Network operators who may find a way to add further differentiation in the expanding arena of mobile competition. For chipset manufacturers, it will be seen that, in order to be able to succeed, the increased capabilities of mobile devices increasingly require competencies in various areas not limited to baseband. In our judgement, this will see Qualcomm, NVIDIA and STEricsson establishing themselves as Tier 1 players in this market For mobile device manufacturers, the challenges will be to have the best possible integration of 4G into existing devices, with, of course, a series of challenges: technical, cost, IPR (Intellectual Property Rights) and Time To Market. Each of the device manufacturers has so far adopted different strategies. Some, such as Apple, have adopted a cautious approach, waiting for the technology to mature for mass market adoption. On the other hand, device vendors such as HTC or Samsung and LG have entered the market very early in an attempt to differentiate themselves and increase market share. In the long term, however, we do not see early LTE adoption into devices as an entry barrier for newcomers.
Figure 6: LTE devices roadmap
Source: IDATE
25
For Mobile Network Operators, mobile devices are also key in their promotion of their new ultra fast network. Several important choices are to be made regarding which device to put on offer, at what level of subsidisation, with which mobile OS (operating system) and with what support for legacy services such as SMS and voice. The issue here is that, on the one hand, they have to make available a sufficient range of devices to appeal to potential subscribers whilst, on the other hand, represent a sufficiently broad market for device manufacturers to dare invest in new products for their network. So far, Verizon has been capturing most of the evolved LTE FDD devices announced so but this situation can be confidently expected to change soon, especially in Asia and later on in Europe. With the TD-LTE ecosystem currently growing, we expect to see multimode handsets coming to the market in 2012: Mobile WiMAX and TD-LTE will be combined into handsets in order to provide a smooth transition path for Mobile WiMAX operators switching to TDLTE. LTE devices combining FDD and TDD capabilities are also expected for operators deploying the two duplex modes on their networks and to facilitate international roaming. Voice on LTE networks: initial LTE rollouts rely on Circuit Switched (CS) fallback for 3GPP operators meaning that voice will be carried over 3G networks. Verizon Wireless is planning to launch VoLTE by mid-2012 when its LTE coverage matches its 3G coverage. Adoption of VoLTE is expected to take many years as the transition to full-IP requires an IP Multimedia Sub-system (IMS) platform. Preferred LTE bands around the world are likely to be the Digital Dividend (700 MHz in the USA, 800 MHz in Europe), 1800 MHz and 2600 MHz bands. However, regional differences are likely to remain. This has a significant impact on the growth of the LTE device ecosystem as the selection of frequency bands is likely to be driven by national constraints first. Regional harmonisation is likely to be the next step and international roaming is expected to be a headache.
4.3 Review of LTE devices availability

The building of an ecosystem around a network technology usually follows a simple path with the simplest device reaching the market first, followed in time by more complex devices such as mobile handsets. This is what is currently happening with the LTE device ecosystem although each LTE band currently represents an (almost) independent ecosystem. The first round of LTE dongles was followed with mobile hotspots such as MiFi like devices and fixed LTE routers for specific markets where LTE is presented as an alternative to fixed broadband, especially in rural areas. Today, virtually all LTE markets in the world have at least one of those devices, most of them though being a mere USB dongle.
Figure 7: Building an ecosystem in time
Source: IDATE
26
As far as more evolved devices such as handsets and tablets are concerned, only the US market has seen products specifically developed for it. A country such as Japan should probably also see such devices come on to its market by the end of 2011 but other markets are lagging behind for the time being. As for other kind of devices such as eReaders, mobile gaming devices or machine to machine communication modules, the market is still to be found and is not very well developed, even with the few announcements that have been made.
Table 9: Kind of device Modules Tablets Notebooks / netbooks USB dongles / PC cards / Mobile hotspots
Source: GSA, March 2011
Number of LTE devices announced by category Number of devices announced 22 7 6 28
4.4 Market forecasts

By the end of 2015, we forecast that overall there will be more than 379 million LTE subscribers worldwide. We forecast 13.8 million LTE subscribers at the end of 2011 with the USA representing the bulk of this figure with 11.6 million subscribers. At the end of 2015, Asia-Pacific should represent 35.2% of the total, North America 31.4% and Western Europe 22.5%. We forecast close to 252 million LTE devices shipments in 2015 worldwide. From a worldwide perspective, LTE devices shipments should reach 15% of all mobile devices shipments by 2015.
27
5. Radio Spectrum
Main findings
The main radio spectrum trends for 2011 are : Digital Dividend availability, deployment of LTE in the 1800 MHz band, allocation and use of the 2.6 GHz band, new frequency bands such as the L-Band and the advent of cognitive radios with the first white spaces developments.
Digital Dividend: auctions in many countries, first commercial services in the USA and in Germany White Spaces: first developments in the USA and in the UK
Mobile services (IMT) 100 MHz

174
PMR
Broadcasting
Fixed services
Unlicensed
Satellite
200
223
300
380
400
430 470
500
600
700
800
790
900
862 880 915 925
960
1 GHz
VHF
410 1164 1375 1400 1479.5 1452 1492 L-Band 1350 1427 1517 450
UHF
IMT GSM
DECT 1880 1900
S-band
1980 2010
1710
1785
1805
2 GHz
1920
1 GHz
20102025
2110
2170
S-band
2200
2300
2400
2483 2500
2690
2 GHz UMTS core
IMT
Unlicensed 2.4
IMT
3 GHz
L-Band in Europe: towards use as a supplementary downlink band?
LTE in the 1800 MHz band: growing interest in AsiaPac and in Europe 2.6 GHz band: more auctions in Europe, LTE services in Europe
Source: IDATE
New radio technologies

New technologies such as cognitive radio could well make new business models possible in the future. This can, though, only be expected to have a long-term: it will take years before cognitive radio technologies have established themselves significantly. Cognitive radios see the first real implementation of the white spaces in the USA and the preparation of the regulatory framework in Europe. The white spaces system will only represent niche markets if they are successful due to the numerous limitations to their implementation.
28
Spectrum aggregation will be a major improvement for mobile operators. It will enable the provision of higher data rates and the use of more spectrum in the downlink in order to adapt the mobile traffic structure. It also reinforces the attraction of isolated frequency bands such as the L-Band. LTE-Advanced is gaining momentum and will probably be implemented before 2015.
Regulatory situation
The search for new spectrum is very active in Europe and in the USA in order to provide resources for the mobile broadband expansion as we observe fast-growing mobile broadband uptake New spectrum is now mainly coming from public users as evidenced in the United Kingdom The identification of new frequency bans is progressing in Europe: the L-Band is attracting some interest and the 2.3 GHz could be made available in many countries The measures outlined by regulatory and policy-making bodies in both areas are similar: more spectrum must be made available for wireless broadband and the rules applying to available spectrum will (need to) allow more flexibility. The EU faces additional challenges in achieving harmonisation in spectrum policy, as spectrum management is a competence of the Member States. One of the main points for mobile broadband at WRC-12 will be the clarification of the Digital Dividend use and cross-border coordination.
Digital Dividend
There is a growing interest in a Second Digital Dividend in Europe where mobile services could be introduced below the existing 790-862 MHz frequency band. This could provide benefits in terms of international harmonisation but is only a very long-term prospect. The analogue switch-off is under way in Europe and will be finalised by end-2011 in most countries. Auctions took place in Germany in May 2010 and in 2011 in Spain and Sweden. Other countries are following but timetables are fragmented across Europe. LTE commercial services in the Digital Dividend started in 2010 in the USA and in Germany. In the USA, the Digital Dividend spectrum was auctioned in 2008 and LTE services are developing as Verizon Wireless launched its LTE network in the 700 MHz band at the end of 2010. Interference issues with Digital TV and Cable TV networks and (Programme Making and Special Events (PMSE) still have to be solved.
Figure 8: Scenario for a Second Digital Dividend
Source: IDATE
29
Spectrum refarming
Introduction of the UMTS/HSPA technology in the 900 MHz band is enabling mobile operators to increase capacity and answer to mobile broadband needs. As of mid-2011, there are more than 34 commercial networks using UMTS/WCDMA in the 900 MHz band (18 at mid-2010), spread around Europe, Latin America, Asia-Pacific, Africa and Europe. It is generally easy to free up spectrum in the 1800 MHz band as 2G traffic is moving to 3G frequency bands. Many operators in Europe and Asia-Pacific have been trialling LTE in the 1800 MHz band, and commercial launches took place in Hong Kong (CSL), Poland (Aero2) and in Lithuania (Omnitel). The European Commission is working on making the 1800 MHz band available for LTE, mobile WiMAX and 3G throughout the Union. Today, regulatory conditions have to be analysed on a country-by-country basis.
New spectrum for mobile broadband

Mobile data traffic is expected to continue to grow at a very rapid pace. We anticipate that mobile traffic will reach more than 127 EB in 2020, representing a 33-times increase compared with the 2010 figure. This is putting pressure on mobile operators to increase data rates and capacity on their networks and raising interest in new spectrum. LTE and LTE-Advanced will dominate the 4G field; our projections show that there will be close to 380 million LTE subscribers worldwide by the end of 2015. LTE commercial service started at the end of 2009 with large-scale deployments in the USA and in Japan at the end of 2010. TDD spectrum represents an opportunity for the development of mobile broadband and TD-LTE will certainly represent the bulk of the TDD market in the coming years. TDD spectrum used to be less attractive to operators than FDD spectrum but recent developments around TD-LTE technology reinforce interest in this type of spectrum. LTE is already implemented in many frequency bands: 700 MHz and AWS bands in the USA, 800, 1800 and 2600 MHz in Europe, 2.1 GHz, 2.6 GHz in Asia. There will soon be implementations in the 2.3 GHz (in TDD mode) and in the PCS band in the Americas. Fragmentation is already here and is putting pressure on chipset developers. We expect the 2.6 GHz, 1800 MHz and 800 MHz bands to be the most widely used in Western Europe for 4G deployments. The 3.4-3.8 GHz band is gaining more and more interest and will become available for mobile applications. It could be used in cities to provide very high data rates. Use of satellite spectrum to build a national LTE network in the USA is planned by LightSquared (1.5-1.6 GHz) and by Dish (S-Band) The L-Band (1452 MHz to 1492 MHz) is widely available today across Europe as well as in other countries such as Canada or Brazil and could provide supplemental downlink for inter-band carrier aggregation.
4G licenses/spectrum valuation
The latest Digital Dividend auctions in Sweden and Spain respectively reached EUR cents 31 and 54 per MHz per pop The 2.6 GHz and 800 MHz bands are being auctioned in Western Europe. We expect prices for the 2.6 GHz spectrum to be in the EUR cents 1- 3 per MHz per pop and for the 800 MHz spectrum in the EUR cents 20-80 per MHz per pop range.
30
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A selection of complementary Reports (optionally)

LTE Markets & Strategies
MNOs commercial positioning & wholesale models (Q4 2011 & Q4 2012) This report provides an overview of the latest trends in the fast growing LTE market and the reasons driving MNOs' migration to LTE.
Femtocells
Offloading mobile networks (Q3 2012) This report presents the latest trends in the femtocell market, MNOs offloading & WiFi strategies. It examines also how mass-market deployment levels will be reached and what obstacles must first be overcome.
Mobile Devices
Is LTE boosting innovation? (Q1 2012) This report spotlights the value chain and the positioning of the key players. It provides data & forecasts up to 2016 (chipset, smartphone & tablets).
Radio Spectrum
Finding new spectrum for MBB (Q3 2012) This study provide readers with analyses of the current spectrum status, outcomes of the WRC 2012, LTE refarming, latest developments of the digital Dividend and a time table for a second DD as well as a focus on 4G spectrum licence issues.
IDATE has more than 100 studies available in its market report catalogue please contact us for a tailor-made solution.
World LTE Market
Our LTE Team

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Frdric PUJOL Radio Technologies & Spectrum Practice Manager f.pujol@idate.org +33(0)467 144 450
Frdric Pujol joined the DigiWorld Institute by IDATE in November 1992. As head of the Mobile Broadband Practice, he is responsible for coordinating mobile industry forecasting and technicaleconomic analysis reports. Previously, Frdric acquired solid experience in mobile network architecture while working for the France Telecom Group (Sofrecom, Telesystems). He holds a postgraduate degree in engineering from ISEN (Institut Suprieur d'Electronique du Nord, Lille, 1986), where he majored in Telecommunications, and from CITCOM (Centre d'Ingnierie des Technologies de la Communication, Paris, 1987), where he majored in Network Architecture.
Basile CARLE Mobile Devices
Tiana RAMAHANDRY Telecom Equipment
Christoph PENNINGS Regulatory aspects
Carole MANERO Services, Cost & Business Models
Soichi NAKAJIMA Asia coverage
IDATE becomes the DigiWorld Institute

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White Paper

White Paper LTE 2012

www.idate.org DigiWorld by IDATE 2012

White Paper LTE 2012

LTE Watch Service

www.idate.org DigiWorld Institute by IDATE 2012

White Paper LTE 2012

IDATE becomes the DigiWorld Institute

Copyright DigiWorld by IDATE 2012, BP 4167, 34092 Montpellier Cedex 5, France

www.idate.org DigiWorld Institute by IDATE 2012

White Paper LTE 2012

1. LTE market forecasts (Dec. 2011)

Source: IDATE LTE Watch Service December 2011

www.idate.org DigiWorld Institute by IDATE 2012

White Paper LTE 2012

1.1 Market forecasts December 2011

www.idate.org DigiWorld Institute by IDATE 2012

White Paper LTE 2012

Central and Eastern Europe

www.idate.org DigiWorld Institute by IDATE 2012

White Paper LTE 2012

Middle East and Africa

All together now: 456 million subscriptions by end-2015

Source: IDATE LTE Watch Service December 2011

www.idate.org DigiWorld Institute by IDATE 2012

White Paper LTE 2012

Source: IDATE LTE Watch Service December 2011

1.2 Data base presentation and LTE market forecasts

1.2.2 Information by operator

www.idate.org DigiWorld Institute by IDATE 2012

White Paper LTE 2012

Geographical zones and countries

Source: IDATE LTE Watch Service December 2011

www.idate.org DigiWorld Institute by IDATE 2012

White Paper LTE 2012

1.3 New LTE commercial services

Table 7: Operator M1 SK Telecom LG U+ O2

Source: IDATE LTE Watch Service December 2011

www.idate.org DigiWorld Institute by IDATE 2012

White Paper LTE 2012

2. LTE: Strategies for MNOs

www.idate.org DigiWorld Institute by IDATE 2012

White Paper LTE 2012

The LTE wholesale model: high-speed dumb-pipes?

LTE spectrum: already too much fragmentation

www.idate.org DigiWorld Institute by IDATE 2012

White Paper LTE 2012

LTE network strategies and technical hurdles

www.idate.org DigiWorld Institute by IDATE 2012

White Paper LTE 2012

Service strategies for LTE

Source: IDATE January 2011

www.idate.org DigiWorld Institute by IDATE 2012

White Paper LTE 2012

Conclusions on LTE strategies

www.idate.org DigiWorld Institute by IDATE 2012

White Paper LTE 2012

Global Femtocell Deployments 2010-2015 (000)

2010 2011 2012 2013

3.1 Femtocell Momentum Returns

www.idate.org DigiWorld Institute by IDATE 2012

White Paper LTE 2012

www.idate.org DigiWorld Institute by IDATE 2012