REMINDER: PLEASE TURN OFF YOUR PHONES

PSYCHOLOGY OF EMOTION: PERCEIVING AND PREDICTING EMOTION

Wesley G. Moons, Ph.D. University of California, Davis Department of Psychology

PREDICTING THE FUTURE

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Affective forecasting (Gilbert & Wilson)

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Predicting ones own future affective response Hypothetical event

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Construal process

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Durability bias
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Emotion lasts less time than predicted

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Intensity bias (Buehler & McFarland, 2001)

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Emotion initially weaker than predicted

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Overall term: Impact Bias

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Combined effect of intensity and durability biases Overestimating the impact an event will have

IMPACT BIAS IN AFFECTIVE FORECASTING

Forecast

Emotion Intensity

Actual

Time
Emotional Event

ESTABLISHED FORECASTING ERRORS

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Impact bias demonstrated in:

1.! 2.! 3.! 4.! 5.! 6.! 7.! 8.!

Getting dorm assignment (or not) Breaking up Political loss or victory Negative personality feedback Not getting the job Receiving tenure as a faculty member (or not) Missing a train Getting picked on a dating game (or not)

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In all cases, people overestimated the impact of the event Errors larger for negative than positive events

MISCONSTRUAL
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Definitions
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Construal = an interpretation or imagination of how something will be Misconstrual = An incorrect construal

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When predicting for an event, we first construe what that event would be like:
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This party will be awesome!

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We then forecast our affective response to that construal:

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Im going to be really happy.

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If we misconstrue the event we arent predicting our reactions to the right event
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Instead of being happy, Im bored.

INACCURATE THEORIES
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Theories about the intensity and duration of emotion influence affective forecasts
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People never really get over losing their first love. Winning the lottery fixes all your problems.

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Such beliefs influence our forecasts:

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If Jimmy breaks up with me, Ill never be happy again. If only I could win the lottery, I would be happy forever.

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Different cultures can have different theories

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Within culture, people know/endorse different theories

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Inaccurate theories make affective forecasts inaccurate

MOTIVATED DISTORTIONS
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Sometimes people want to feel a certain way

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Or believe they should feel a certain way

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Example: Caring for terminally ill partner

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Predict enormous grief upon partners death

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People often feel some relief however So they only predict grief

People dont want to predict relief

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Other examples
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Of course, Id be happy if you and my ex dated. Id be happy with any gift you give me. Getting married to you will be the happiest moment of my life.

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People often make an initial judgment and correct from there

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UNDERCORRECTION
Anchoring and adjustment Examples
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How old is Hillary Clinton? !! In what year did Benjamin Franklin fly that kite?

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We also anchor (initial forecast) and adjust (correction) in our when affective forecasting
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How would you feel if your best friend moved away:

Anchor: Id be devastated! !! Adjustment: But I guess she could visit and text.
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Undecorrection is an insufficient tempering of an extreme initial forecast

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By default, we overestimate and undercorrection means that our final forecasts would still be too extreme

FOCALISM
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Excessive focus on central event

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Failure to take peripheral information into account

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Imagine losing your apartment keys:

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Central:
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Fear of where they could be Anger at self for losing them Annoyed to waste time searching

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Peripheral:
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Friend to help you look and make you laugh Work that needs to be done before deadline Apartment manager can let you in

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Failure to recognize co-occuring factors during the event

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Forecasting for the event in a vacuum

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Focalism increases extremity of negative and positive forecasts

IMMUNE NEGLECT
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Psychological Immune System (defenses/coping)

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Rationalization Attribute blame to non-self Self-enhancement

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Imagine a break-up
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Defenses kick in to make us feel better

He was a jerk. Im fantastic.

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Defenses work best outside of awareness

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Inability to take them into account consciously

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Failure to incorporate defenses into forecast

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Because they occur outside of our awareness

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Immune neglect increases impact bias for ONLY negative events.

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Coping and defense strategies only related to negative events

SELECTIVE MEMORY
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Predict how missing the train will make you feel

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Based on prior missed train experience Most extreme instance more accessible

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Extreme examples more easily retrieved

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Remember when you fell asleep in class Less likely to remember all the times you got away with it More likely to remember the time you were called on by professor

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Biased memory selection biases forecast

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Extreme memory leads to extreme forecast

CULTURAL DIFFERENCES
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East Asians typically more holistic than EuropeanAmericans

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More attention to non-central, peripheral information

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Culture influences focalism

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Asians and Asian-Americans include peripheral info more

11 9

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Reduced impact bias

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Forecasts may be accurate for Asians and Asian-Americans 7

5 3 1 Euro Forecast Asian Experience

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Experiment:
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Euro and Asian samples Forecast happiness Week when 68 reached

AFFECTIVE FORECASTING AND BEHAVIOR

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Motivates Behavior

Leads to preparatory behaviors

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example

Playing dating game Will be selected or not by date First, can choose dose of happiness inducing pill More anticipated negative affect in response to rejection, the higher the dosage selected

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be a primary source of motivation

Avoid negative and approach positive

We are motivated by our forecasts to take action

EMPATHIC ACCURACY
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Empathic accuracy
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Ability to accurately perceive specific emotions and thoughts experienced by others Every day mind-reading

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Target is visible and cues available

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Facial expression Body posture Voice tone Speech content

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Typical study procedure:

1.! 2.! 3.!

Target is videotaped describing an emotional event Target reports emotions and thoughts felt at moments during video Perceiver watches tape and reports targets emotions and thoughts

IMPORTANCE OF EMPATHIC ACCURACY

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Different from:
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Empathy Sympathy Perspective-taking

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Some better than others:

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More attentive More motivated More sympathetic

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Associated with mostly positive relationship outcomes

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Positive effect on adolescents social adjustment

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Buffers adolescents against adjustment problems when peer relationships are poor

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But negative during a couples disagreement

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Better understanding of partners negative thoughts and feelings toward the self Temporary increase in distress in empathic romantic partners

EMPATHIC FORECASTING
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Empathic forecasting:
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Predicting other peoples emotional reactions to hypothetical events

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Similarities:
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Construal of event (like affective forecasting) Consideration of others (like empathic accuracy)

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Differences
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Affective forecasting: Judgment is about self rather than other Empathic accuracy: Judgment is about whats in front of us rather than an imagined hypothetical event

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Affective vs. empathic forecasting errors

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Similar durability bias for self and other when predicting positive event Others expected to feel bad for longer than the self after negative event
More extreme for strangers than close others

THE END!