Africa and Chinas Global Activism By David H. Shinn Elliott School of International Affairs The George ashington !

niversity "a#er "resented at the $ational Defense !niversity "acific Sym#osi%m Chinas Global Activism& Im#lications for !.S. Sec%rity Interests $ational Defense !niversity 'ort (esley ). *c$air )%ne +,- +,,. Chinas a##roach to Africa has changed dramatically since the end of the Cold ar. 'rom the /011 Band%ng $on2Aligned Conference and %ntil the end of the /03,sChinese #olicy in Africa foc%sed on s%##ort for inde#endence and "an2African movements and the #ro#agation of its version of comm%nist ideology. It also devoted considerable energy to co%ntering di#lomatic inroads by Tai4an- a #olicy that contin%es to the #resent b%t is no4 less im#ortant. 5nly si6 African co%ntries 7B%r8ina 'aso- ChadGambia- *ala4i- Sao Tome and "rinci#e- and S4a9iland: recogni9e Tai4an; China has an embassy in virt%ally all the remaining co%ntries on the continent. Chinas goal no4 is to ens%re that Africa remains a sec%re so%rce for oil and ra4 materials- a gro4ing mar8et for Chinese e6#orts- and a base of s%##ort for Chinas e6#anding global interests. In +,,< China s%r#assed )a#an as the 4orlds second largest im#orter of #etrole%m after the !nited States. *ore than t4enty2five #ercent of Chinas im#orted oil comes from Africa and the #ercentage is gro4ing significantly each year. Africa c%rrently #rovides t4elve #ercent of the 4orlds li=%id hydrocarbon #rod%ction and it 4ill s%##ly thirty #ercent of the 4orlds gro4th in #rod%ction %# to +,/,. China also obtains an im#ortant =%antity of minerals from Africa to s%##ort its ra#id ind%strial e6#ansion. China is the 4orlds largest cons%mer of co##er and im#orts a s%bstantial #art of its needs from Africa. It de#ends increasingly on African ferrochrome- #latin%mcobalt- iron- gold- silver- and timber. Altho%gh access to African reso%rces is Chinas #rimary interest- it engages African governments and its b%siness comm%nity in a 4ide variety of sectors and iss%es. It does not yet have the infl%ence across the continent that is e6ercised by the !.S. or the E%ro#ean !nion- b%t it is fast reaching that #oint. Chinas Economic and "olitical >ole as ?ie4ed by Africans It sho%ld come as no s%r#rise that Africas fifty2three co%ntries and the different a%diences 4ithin those co%ntries do not hold identical vie4s abo%t Chinas gro4ing economic and #olitical role on the continent. African governments generally 4elcome Chinas engagement and attention. China offers some co%ntries a #olitical and economic alternative to the !nited States and@or E%ro#ean !nion. Those co%ntries that have the greatest diffic%lty establishing close ties 4ith the !.S. and members of the E%ro#ean !nion are most li8ely to see8 collaboration 4ith China. African co%ntries 4ith #oor h%man rights credentials- a sl%ggish record on democrati9ation- and a #ro#ensity for

+ corr%#tion- and that incl%des many of them- do not have to 4orry abo%t sanctions or even %n#leasant lect%res 4hen they interact 4ith China. China has embraced co%ntries li8e S%dan and Aimbab4e that have had es#ecially #oor relations 4ith the !.S. and some other 4estern co%ntries. China- together 4ith India and *alaysia- manages S%dans oil ind%stry. Today- China receives abo%t seven #ercent of its total oil im#orts from S%dan alone. S%dan describes China as its most im#ortant #artner. BeiBing 4armly 4elcomed in +,,1 Aimbab4es "resident *%gabe- 4ho has been sh%nned by the est. China im#orts significant =%antities of minerals from Aimbab4e and has become its second largest trading #artner after So%th Africa. B%t China has also embraced reso%rce #oor and democratically2challenged co%ntries li8e Togo that have strained relations 4ith the est. estern oil com#anies are 4ell established in Angola- a co%ntry 4ith serio%s corr%#tion #roblems. China has Boined the =%est for Angolan oil in a maBor 4ay. After So%th Africa- Angola is Chinas second largest trading #artner in Africa. China #rovided Angola a C+ billion soft loan as #art of an aid #ac8age. In ret%rn it received a long2term contract for the s%##ly of oil to China and signed agreements on oil e6#loration and constr%ction of a refinery. E=%atorial G%inea and $igeria also face serio%s corr%#tion iss%es. (i8e Angola- China and the !.S. have significant energy interests in both co%ntries. This s%ggests that neither China nor the !.S. is #re#ared to stand on anti2 corr%#tion #rinci#les 4hen it comes to access to oil. China li8es to refer to itself as a develo#ing co%ntry. Altho%gh only a half2tr%ththis de#iction sells 4ell in Africa. *ost African governments- 4hich manage develo#ing economies- see China as a #artner that does not im#ose #olitical or economic conditions e6ce#t for acce#tance of its Done ChinaE #olicy. Chinas #resident recently commented that China 4ill engage in b%siness 4itho%t any e6#ectation that governments 4ill im#rove democracy- res#ect h%man rights- or fight corr%#tion. hen =%estioned in +,,< abo%t its relationshi# 4ith S%dan- Chinas de#%ty foreign minister res#onded that Db%siness is b%siness. e try to se#arate #olitics from b%siness.E 'or their #art- African governments loo8 at Chinas #osition on the !nited $ations Sec%rity Co%ncil as #otential #rotection against occasional harsh meas%res #ro#osed by 4estern members of the co%ncil. China and African co%ntries facing h%man rights criticism defend each other in vario%s organs of the !nited $ations. All African governments li8e high level attention from the 4orlds most im#ortant co%ntries. China has develo#ed this as#ect of its relationshi# 4ith Africa more effectively than any other maBor #o4er- incl%ding the !.S. It has become a tradition that each year Chinas foreign minister visits Africa first. In )an%ary +,,. the foreign minister 4ent to Ca#e ?erde- Senegal- *ali- (iberia- (ibya- and $igeria. "resident H% )intao made 4ell #%blici9ed and s%bstantively significant visits in A#ril to *orocco$igeria- and Fenya. "rime *inister en )iabao is in the middle of a tri# that ta8es him to Angola- Egy#t- Ghana- the Democratic >e#%blic of the Congo- So%th Africa- Tan9aniaand !ganda. Before +,,. is over the list of high level Chinese officials 4ho 4ill have visited Africa 4ill be long and im#ressive. In addition- significant n%mbers of African leaders 4ill visit China; most of them have been to BeiBing before. This is a lo4 cost 4ay to develo# strong #ersonal relations 4ith African officials. The third ministerial meeting of the China2Africa Coo#eration 'or%m 4ill ta8e #lace in BeiBing in $ovember of this year- bringing large n%mbers of African ministers to the Chinese ca#ital.

G The reaction to China by the average African- the b%siness comm%nity- and sometimes even the government that re#resents these constit%encies is more n%anced. African cons%mers 4elcome ine6#ensive and relatively high =%ality Chinese goods in the mar8et. There is not %niversal agreement- ho4ever- that Chinese #rod%cts are of ade=%ate =%ality. Even Aimbab4eans ostraci9ed by the est com#lain abo%t the fre=%ency 4ith 4hich their ne4 Chinese b%ses brea8 do4n and that Chinese cons%mer goods are too shoddy. Africans also com#lain 4hen Chinese investment and aid #roBects res%lt in the arrival of large n%mbers of Chinese 4or8ers to do Bobs that Africans are ca#able of doing. To the e6tent that Chinese #rod%cts %nderc%t locally made goods- force the clos%re of African ind%stries- and decrease the #ros#ects for em#loyment- the reaction has often been negative. It is- ho4ever- diffic%lt to establish a direct ca%se and effect relationshi# bet4een Chinese im#orts and the fail%re of local ind%stries. A n%mber of African co%ntries have e6#ressed concern that Chinese te6tile e6#orts are flooding their mar8ets and %nderc%tting local mills. Chea#er Chinese te6tiles also eliminate Africas ability to com#ete in American and E%ro#ean mar8ets. Chinese te6tile e6#orts have harmed ind%stries in (esotho- S4a9iland- Ghana- !ganda- FenyaSo%th Africa- and *orocco. Since the s%rge in Chinese te6tile im#orts began in +,,GSo%th Africa lost 11-,,, Bobs in the ind%stry by the end of +,,1. *ore than ten clothing factories closed in S4a9iland- forcing /+-,,, em#loyees o%t of 4or8. There 4ere another /G-,,, Bob losses in (esotho. (o42cost Chinese te6tile and other cons%mer im#orts also devastated cons%mer #rod%ct ind%stries in several $igerian cities. In /00, there 4ere very fe4 Chinese trading stores in $amibia. Today virt%ally every to4n has at least one. These foreign enter#rises almost certainly dis#laced some locally2o4ned stores. This raises the #ossibility of gro4ing n%mbers of %nha##y $amibian traders. It co%ld also have an im#act on the f%t%re of Chinese2$amibian relations. 5ther African co%ntries have had similar e6#eriences. There has been a shar# increase in recent years in the registry of Chinese com#anies in Bots4ana. This 4ill s%rely have im#lications for the ability of local com#anies to com#ete. Altho%gh it is too early to B%dge the im#act of these Chinese commercial inc%rsions- they may 4ell res%lt in a negative reaction by ordinary citi9ens and the #rivate sector generally. In +,,< Chinese e6#orts- incl%ding those from Hong Fong- to Africa totaled more than C/G billion 4hile Chinese im#orts 4ere abo%t C/. billion- giving Africa a trade s%r#l%s 4ith China. These fig%res are- ho4ever- highly misleading. China had maBor trade deficits 4ith oil e6#orting nations Angola- >e#%blic of Congo- E=%atorial G%ineaGabon- and S%dan. It had a modest deficit 4ith mineral e6#orting Aambia- Aimbab4eand Democratic >e#%blic of the Congo 4hile its h%ge trade 4ith So%th Africa 4as in balance. B%t China maintained a trade s%r#l%s- sometimes a large one- 4ith all b%t a fe4 of the remaining co%ntries in Africa. *any of these nations are #oor and least able to finance trade imbalances 4ith China. In an effort to alleviate this sit%ation- China eliminated tariffs for many #rod%cts e6#orted by some of them. !ntil those African co%ntries that have a deficit 4ith China are able to redress this sit%ation- ho4ever- it 4ill contin%e to challenge the economic relationshi#. There are also concerns- albeit by very small n%mbers of African environmentalists- abo%t Chinas generally dismissive a##roach to good environmental #ractices. China is the 4orlds largest im#orter of forest #rod%cts. *any of its #%rchases in Africa are from %nlicensed loggers or from com#anies that do not engage in

< environmentally so%nd logging #ractices. There are other relatively small interest gro%#s in most African co%ntries that tend to be 4ary of China. They incl%de h%man rights activists- o%ts#o8en advocates for democracy- and those concerned abo%t Chinas e6#ort of arms to the continent. Everything considered- ho4ever- Chinas trade- investment- and di#lomatic activities in Africa dra4 more a##la%se than criticism from Africans. Africas *ilitary and Sec%rity Coo#eration 4ith China Bet4een +,,, and +,,G- China ran8ed third as an arms s%##lier to s%b2Saharan Africa after the 4estern E%ro#ean co%ntries collectively and >%ssia. The val%e of its arms transfers d%ring this #eriod 4as C1,, million. China ro%tinely sells military e=%i#ment and s%##orts the local man%fact%re of arms on strictly commercial terms 4itho%t concern abo%t h%man rights or the #ossible negative im#act of this activity on local conflicts. African governments- es#ecially those that have diffic%lty obtaining arms from the est- are %s%ally gratef%l. B%t some- s%ch as So%th Africa- have e6#ressed concern abo%t Chinas arms #olicy on the continent. China- for e6am#le- sold s%bstantial =%antities of military e=%i#ment to both Ethio#ia and Eritrea d%ring their /0032+,,, 4ar. B%siness 4as b%siness. Altho%gh China has no military bases in Africa- it ma8es fre=%ent %se of high level visits by Chinese military #ersonnel and invitations to African delegations to ens%re strong military to military relations. 5ther than e6#ressions of a #rofo%nd desire to contin%e military coo#eration- these visits rarely res%lt in the #%blic anno%ncement of any s%bstantive details. The !.S. and E%ro#ean !nion maintain arms sanctions against S%dan. As a res%lt- S%dan relies on Chinese fighter #lanes- helico#ter g%nshi#s- artillery #ieces- and tan8s. China b%ilt three factories on the o%ts8irts of Fharto%m for assembling small arms and man%fact%ring amm%nition. Since the mid2/00,s- the s%##ly of arms to S%dan has been lin8ed to the s%##ly of oil to China. BeiBing did inc%r the 4rath of so%thern S%danese 4ho- %ntil three years ago- 4ere engaged in a 4ar against Fharto%m and its Chinese2s%##lied armed forces. China also has a close military relationshi# 4ith Aimbab4e- another co%ntry %nder a E%ro#ean !nion arms embargo. China first sold )2H fighters and radar e=%i#ment to Aimbab4e in /030. Aimbab4e #%rchased /+ 'C2/ fighter #lanes- assa%lt rifles- armored #ersonnel carriers- and military vehicles val%ed at C+<, million in +,,<. Aimbab4es air force received si6 F23 advanced Bet trainers from China in +,,1. According to #ress re#orts- Aimbab4e #romised China access to its mineral 4ealth in #ayment for some of these #%rchases. Sino2Egy#tian military coo#eration dates bac8 to the early years of the non2 aligned movement. The !.S. remains Egy#ts most im#ortant s%##lier of military e=%i#ment- b%t Egy#t recently #artnered 4ith China to #rod%ce F23E flight trainers. A Chinese g%ided missile destroyer and s%##ly shi# #assed thro%gh the S%e9 Canal in +,,+ and doc8ed in Ale6andria d%ring the first Chinese aro%nd2the24orld voyage of this ty#e. $igeria signed an agreement in +,,1 to obtain an %ndetermined n%mber of Chinese '2 3II* all24eather- m%lti2#%r#ose- combat Bets for its air force. China and Sierra (eone signed a military coo#eration agreement in +,,. 4hereby China is #roviding a s%rveillance boat and training. It 4ill be %sed by the army to deal 4ith illegal traffic8ing and fishing in Sierra (eones territorial 4aters. Fenya began negotiations 4ith China in

1 +,,1 for the #%rchase of <,, Styer military tr%c8s and thirty armored #ersonnel carriers. The deal may res%lt in a center for maintenance and s#are #arts. Beginning in the early /00,s- China embar8ed on a ne4 #olicy of #roviding #ersonnel for !$ #eace8ee#ing missions. Altho%gh the n%mber of Chinese #ersonnel committed to the missions has been modest %ntil recently- many of these o#erations have been in Africa. China has had abo%t +, observers in the estern Sahara since /00/. In the mid2/00,s- it sent small n%mbers of observers to *o9ambi=%e- (iberia- and Sierra (eone. Beginning in +,,, China contrib%ted ten observers to the Ethio#ia2Eritrea mission. In +,,/ China sent a small n%mber of observers and more than +,, troo#s to the Democratic >e#%blic of the Congo. T4o years later it contrib%ted .,, troo#s and #olice to the mission in (iberia. Since +,,< a small n%mber of Chinese observers have been in Cote dIvoire and B%r%ndi. China has sent a small n%mber of observers- troo#s- and #olice to the !$ mission in S%dan; China event%ally e6#ects to assign <G1 military #ersonnel there. >ob%st Chinese engagement in African #eace8ee#ing is a ne4 and im#ortant develo#ment. "resident H% #romised d%ring his A#ril +,,. visit to $igeria that China 4o%ld #lay a larger role in troo# contrib%tions to !$ #eace8ee#ing missions in Africa. This is a clear e6am#le of Chinas e6#anding global activism. Chinas Soft "o4er in Africa Chinas %se of soft #o4er in Africa has been its least controversial foreign #olicy tool and- relative to its lo4 cost- has #robably been its most effective one. "erha#s recogni9ing this develo#ment- DChinas Africa "olicyE statement released in )an%ary +,,. foc%sed heavily on soft #o4er and said virt%ally nothing abo%t arms sales and access to Africas nat%ral reso%rces. *any African governments and ordinary Africans regard China as a model of moderni9ation that is more res#onsive to African needs than is the est. Chinese com#anies have #roven that they can b%ild roads- dams- rail4aysand bridges efficiently- =%ic8ly- and at relatively lo4 cost. Chinas economic develo#ment model does not re=%ire #olitical liberali9ation or economic #olicy reform. It enco%rages its African #artners to develo# their economies thro%gh trade and investment in infrastr%ct%re and social instit%tions. Chinas res#ect for national sovereignty is es#ecially attractive to many African leaders. >ecogni9ing this sit%ation- Ethio#ias $ational Sec%rity "olicy and Strategy statement concl%ded that D4e need to f%lly %tili9e Chinese develo#ment e6#erience as 4ell as training and technical assistance #ossibilities.E It is tr%e that China can #rovide technical assistance- es#ecially for agric%lt%re- that is sometimes more a##ro#riate for African co%ntries than 4estern aid. 5ne of the fe4 African s8e#tics of China as a develo#ment model is So%th Africas "resident Thabo *be8i. He said in +,,1 that his co%ntry 4o%ld not follo4 the Chinese develo#ment model. He arg%ed that Africa can not re#licate China- 4hich benefits from massive #rivate ca#ital inflo4s that f%el ra#id e6#ort2led gro4th. African co%ntries sim#ly do not have access to this ca#ital. China s%##orts the D$e4 "artnershi# for Africas Develo#ment 7$E"AD:E- an African2led effort to create so%nd governance and s%stainable develo#ment. By insistingho4ever- that it 4ill 4or8 thro%gh the China2Africa Coo#eration 'or%m- China sideste#s the need to s%##ort trans#arency- democracy- a free #ress- civil society- inde#endent B%diciary- and r%le of la4 re=%ired by $E"AD. China ma8es m%ch of the fact that it

. #rovides technical and financial assistance 4itho%t strings- e6ce#t- of co%rse- the %nstated re=%irement that a co%ntry s%##ort the one China #olicy. Altho%gh gro4ing- Chinese foreign aid to Africa is modest 4hen com#ared to that #rovided by E%ro#ean !nion co%ntries or the !.S. It also tends to be in the form of soft loans rather than grants. China re#ortedly #rovided C/.3 billion in foreign assistance to Africa in +,,+; fig%res for s%bse=%ent years are not available. Debt cancellation has become an im#ortant #art of its soft #o4er a##roach to Africa. It cancelled C/.+ billion in African debt in +,,, and another CH1, million in +,,G. China has a long history of sending medical teams and agric%lt%ral e6#erts to Africa. Since /0.< China has sent more than /1-,,, doctors or medical s#ecialists to nearly every co%ntry on the continent. They have treated an estimated /3, million African #atients. Altho%gh most co%ntries are e6#ected to #ay for the medical teams e6#enses- China #ic8s %# the tab for the #oorest co%ntries. Chinese health di#lomacy has made many friends for China in Africa. "rivate Chinese clinics are even beginning to re#lace or s%##lement 4estern medicine in some African co%ntries. China a4ards abo%t /-1,, scholarshi#s ann%ally to African st%dents and Chinese %niversities have established relationshi#s 4ith a n%mber of their African co%nter#arts. In +,,G nearly /-3,, African st%dents st%died in China- com#rising one2third of the total n%mber of foreign st%dents. In +,,1 China o#ened in Fenya its first Conf%ci%s Instit%te in Africa. '%nded by BeiBing and devoted to Chinese st%dies and lang%age training"resident H% visited the Instit%te d%ring his +,,. visit to Fenya 4hen he em#hasi9ed the im#ortance of c%lt%ral coo#eration. China and Egy#t agreed in +,,1 to establish the Egy#tian Chinese !niversity in Cairo. 5nce com#leted- it 4ill be the first Chinese %niversity in Africa or the *iddle East. Another first- China ina%g%rated in +,,. an '* radio station in $airobi- Fenya- that transmits nineteen ho%rs of #rogramming daily in English- S4ahili- and Chinese. China has a##roved si6teen African co%ntries as o%tbo%nd destinations for Chinese to%rists. This res%lted in travel to Africa d%ring +,,1 by //,-,,, Chinese to%rists- an increase of /,, #ercent over +,,<. Chinese investment in Africa has led to 3,-,,, migrant 4or8ers from China- creating a ne4 Chinese dias#ora that may not ret%rn home. China also sent its first gro%# of yo%ng vol%nteers to Africa in +,,1. Associated 4ith the Chinese Io%th ?ol%nteers Association- the first t4elve vol%nteers 4ent to Ethio#ia for si6 months to teach Chinese- im#rove #hysical ed%cation- develo# the %se of marsh gas- and im#rove information technology. ith each #assing year- the sco#e of Chinas activities in Africa is loo8ing more and more li8e the 8inds of #rograms offered by the !.S. and E%ro#ean !nion co%ntries. Im#act of China on !.S. Interests in Africa 'ared Aa8aria 4rote in Newsweek earlier this year that DChinese foreign #olicy is still mostly motivated by #arochial concerns.E He cited its foc%s on co%ntering Tai4an and retaining access to energy so%rces 4herever they might e6ist. Aa8aria arg%ed that this narro4 #olicy begs the =%estion 4hether BeiBing 4ants to be a sta8eholder in the international system. It also leaves %nans4ered if China is 4illing to #ay the #rice that comes 4ith great global #o4er. These =%estions are in #lay in Africa and the o%tcome is not yet clear.

H In its dialog%e 4ith China on Africa- the !.S. has for the time being o#ted for the vie4 that China sho%ld be seen as a Dres#onsible sta8eholder.E A senior official in the State De#artments Africa b%rea% testified before the Ho%se Africa S%bcommittee in +,,1 that China can hel# to advance !.S. goals if it increases #ros#erity and stability on the continent. He listed the follo4ing as areas of m%t%al coo#eration& Chinese #artici#ation in !$ #eace8ee#ing o#erations- financial s%##ort for the African !nion and its develo#ment efforts- and the e6#ansion of b%siness and investment o##ort%nities for African #artners. He concl%ded that DChina sho%ld have many of the same interests in Africa as the !nited States- based- among other elements- on o%r shared reliance on a global oil mar8et- shared desire to diversify so%rces from the *iddle East and shared concern over volatile oil #rices.E 'ollo4ing tal8s in BeiBing at the end of +,,1- Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs- )endayi 'ra9er- commented that she did not believe the !.S. is in direct com#etition 4ith China in Africa. She added that it 4o%ld be a mista8e to Dconsider China an adversary in Africa.E A st%dy by the Co%ncil on 'oreign >elations late in +,,1 concl%ded that China #oses three challenges to the !.S. and its 4estern #artners. 'irst- it cited Chinas s%##ort for co%ntries li8e S%dan and Aimbab4e that face charges of egregio%s h%man rights violations. Second- it arg%ed that China is %nhel#f%l in efforts to enco%rage trans#arencyco%nter corr%#tion- im#rove governance- and s%##ort economic reform in Africa. Thirdit noted that Chinese b%siness #ractices- 4hich serve state interests as m%ch as the #rofit motive- create %nfair com#etition in bidding for contracts. Altho%gh there are im#ortant African iss%es 4here the !.S. and China disagreethe ne6t several years offer the greatest o##ort%nity for collaboration and coo#eration. As com#etition for scarce energy reso%rces in Africa increases in the years ahead- it 4ill be more diffic%lt to coo#erate in areas 4here there is no inherent conflict. Iss%es that lend themselves no4 to coo#eration incl%de co%ntering terrorism- organi9ed crime- and dr%g cartels and addressing global #%blic health crises. Im#roved health services are des#erately needed in Africa. This is an area 4here Chinese e6#erience on the continent and 4estern ca#ital co%ld 4or8 to the advantage of everyone. As China a##reciates the increasing environmental dangers ca%sed by its ra#id economic e6#ansion- the time may also be ri#e for 4or8ing coo#eratively to4ards better environmental #ractices in Africa. If there is !.S.2Chinese agreement on some of these DeasierE challenges- it co%ld lead to disc%ssions aimed at convincing China to change its #olicy on the #rovision of arms to Africa. "otential !.S.2China com#etition for African oil is one of the most hotly debated to#ics today. The !.S. c%rrently obtains more than fifteen #ercent of its im#orts from Africa and that fig%re may rise to one2=%arter by +,/1. China b%ys more than t4enty2 five #ercent of its im#orts from Africa and has re#laced )a#an as the second largest im#orter of African oil after the !.S. India has also become a maBor com#etitor for African oil- 4hich is highly desired beca%se of its lo4 s%lf%r content. To the e6tent that all of these co%ntries contrib%te to the develo#ment of ne4 oil so%rces in Africacom#etition among them 4ill be minimi9ed. It is also in the interest of China and the !.S. to hel# stabili9e a co%ntry li8e $igeria so that it can e6#and its hydrocarbon #rod%ction. B%t event%ally e6ternal oil demand- ass%ming that it remains high- and static African #rod%ction 4ill li8ely res%lt in shar# com#etition for African oil by these and

3 other co%ntries. This iss%e alone 4ill im#act significantly the long2term f%t%re of !.S.2 China relations as it relates to Africa.