TSUNAMI DATABASES FOR THE NATIONAL TSUNAMI EARLY

WARNING CENTRE OF MALAYSIA : TOWARD THE

IMPLEMENTATION PLAN OF REGIONAL TSUNAMI WATCH
PROVIDERS (RTWP)


Chai Mui Fatt, Asmadi bin Abdul Wahab, Norhadizah binti Mohd Khalid,
Nasrul Hakim bin Hashim, Muhammad Nazri bin Noordin and Mohd Rosaidi bin Che Abas



ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study is to develop a tsunami database for the National
Tsunami Early Warning Centre of Malaysia, towards the implementation plan
of Regional Tsunami Watch Providers (RTWP). Firstly, we determined the
tsunami source points along the most active subduction zones at an interval of
0.5 degree (~50 km) with 5 magnitudes (M
w
6.5, 7.0, 7.5, 8.0 and 8.5) and 4
depths (0, 20, 40 and 60 km). The coastal and forecast points are located along
the coastal area at 1 and 50 m of bathymetric contour depth with random
interval distance, respectively. In numerical simulations, TUNAMI-F1
(Tohoku Universitys Numerical Analysis Model for Investigation of Far-field
tsunami, No. 1), TUNAMI-N2 (Tohoku Universitys Numerical Analysis
Model for Investigation of Near-field tsunami, No. 2) and NAMI-DANCE
version 4.7 are used to calculate the tsunami waveforms at the outpoint points.
Greens Law calculations are then applied to the tsunami heights at forecast
points to estimate the reliable tsunami heights for the coastal points. Tsunami
arrival times at the coastal points are then calculated by inverse tsunami arrival
time using the TTT (Tsunami Travel Times) software. The empirical equations
of the Scaling Law are used to determine the fault parameters of earthquake
which is controlled by moment magnitude. Tsunami databases are then
constructed by using MySQL database which combined 3 major components at
the Malaysian National Tsunami Early Warning System (MNTEWS). This pre-
computed tsunami database contains more than 30,000 earthquakes scenarios
covering the most active subduction zones historically. Combinations of PHP
scripting language and SQL command syntax are performed to retrieve the
database output by simple, interpolation, extrapolation and maximum risk
methods. The threat levels of warning, alert and watch are issued based on
wave amplitude and arrival times of tsunamis at the coastal points.

_________________________________________________________________________________
The author works for Malaysian Meteorological Department, Malaysia.


























TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Seismicity and Tectonics of Malaysia 2
1.2 Felt Earthquakes 3
1.3 Local Origin Earthquakes 4
1.4 Recent Tsunamis 5
1.5 Tsunami Early Warning System in Malaysia 6
1.5.1 Overview of the Malaysian National Tsunami Early Warning System 6
1.5.2 Seismic Network 7
1.5.3 Tide Gauge Network 8
1.5.4 Deep Ocean Buoy Network 9
1.5.5 Coastal Camera Network 10
1.5.6 Tsunami Siren Warning Network 11
1.5.7 Disaster Alert System (DAS) 12
1.6 Review and Purpose 12
1.7 Scope of Study Area 12

2. DATA 13
2.1 Bathymetry Data 13

3. THEORY 14
3.1 Causes of Tsunami 14
3.2 Ocean Bottom and Sea Surface Displacements 14
3.3 Propagation of Near-field Tsunamis 14
3.3.1 Governing Equation in Cartesian Coordinate System 15
3.3.2 Bottom Friction Term 15
3.4 Propagation of Far-field Tsunamis 16
3.4.1 Governing Equation in Spherical Coordinates System 17
3.5 Ocean Bottom Deformation 17
3.6 Scaling Law 18
3.7 Greens Law 18
3.8 Numerical Model 19
3.8.1 Staggered leap-frog Scheme 19
3.8.2 Numerical Stability 21

4. METHODOLOGY 21
4.1 Tsunamigenic Earthquake Locations 21
4.2 Magnitude and Depth 23
4.3 Source Points 24


4.4 Forecast and Coastal Points 25
4.4.1 Greens Law 26
4.5 Initial Condition 27
4.5.1 Depth of Top Left Corner 27
4.5.2 Location of Top Left Corner 28
4.5.3 Ocean Bottom Deformation 29
4.6 Inverse Tsunami Travel Times 31
4.7 Tsunami Numerical Simulation Models 34
4.7.1 Numerical Simulation by TUNAMI-F1 34
4.7.2 Numerical Simulation by TUNAMI-N2 34
4.7.3 Numerical Simulation by NAMI-DANCE 35
4.7.4 Validation Model by TUNAMI-F1 in Spherical Coordinates System 35
4.7.5 Validation Model by NAMI-DANCE in Spherical Coordinates System 37
4.7.6 Validation Model by TUNAMI-N2 in Cartesian Coordinate System 38
4.7.7 Validation Model by NAMI-DANCE in Cartesian Coordinate System 39
4.8 Tsunami Database 40
4.8.1 Construction of Tsunami Database 41
4.8.2 SQL Commands 42
4.9 Retrieving from Tsunami Database 43
4.9.1 Simple Method 43
4.9.2 Interpolation Method 44
4.9.3 Extrapolation Method 47
4.9.4 Maximum Risk Method 48
4.10 Earthquake and Tsunami Bulletins 49
4.10.1 Warning Category 50
4.10.2 Design of Earthquake Bulletin No. 1 51
4.10.3 Design of Tsunami Bulletin No. 2 52
4.10.4 Design of Tsunami Bulletin No. 3 (Upgrade or Downgrade) 54
4.10.5 Design of Tsunami Bulletin No. 4 (Cancellation of Warning) 55

5. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 56
5.1 Tsunami Heights 56
5.1.1 Different Magnitude at Fixed Depth 56
5.1.2 Different Depths at Fixed Magnitude 57
5.1.3 Different Source Points 58
5.2 Tsunami Travel Times 59
5.2.1 Different Magnitude at Fixed Depth 59
5.2.2 Different Depths at Fixed Magnitude 60
5.2.3 Different Source Points 61
5.2.4 Comparison of Tsunami Arrival Times between TTT and Simulation Result 62
5.3 Application of Greens Law 63
5.4 Validation Models 64
5.4.1 TUNAMI-F1 in Spherical Coordinates System 64
5.4.2 NAMI-DANCE in Spherical Coordinates System 66


5.4.3 TUNAMI-N2 in Cartesian Coordinate System 67
5.4.4 NAMI-DANCE in Cartesian Coordinate System 69
5.4.5 Comparison Waveforms at the Outpoints Points 70
5.5 Tsunami Database 71
5.5.1 Simple Method 72
5.5.2 Interpolation Method 72
5.5.3 Extrapolation Method 72
5.5.4 Maximum Risk Method 72
5.6 Comparison of Database Output 73
5.6.1 Tsunami Heights 74
5.6.2 Tsunami Arrival Times 75
5.7 Application of Searching Methods 76
5.8 Web Application for Tsunami Database 77
5.9 Scenario Case 78
5.9.1 Earthquake Bulletin No. 1 78
5.9.2 Tsunami Bulletin No. 2 79
5.9.3 Tsunami Bulletin No. 3 83
5.9.4 Tsunami Bulletin No. 4 84

6. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 85

FUTURE PLAN 86

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT 86

APPENDICES 87

REFERENCES 108




















Page 1 of 110


1. INTRODUCTION


The Indo-Australia Plate is moving northward against the Eurasian Plate at the rate of 37 to 57
mm per year. Historically, no large earthquake with a moment magnitude, M
w
greater than 8.0
had occurred along the boundary of these two plates for over a century. Seismically, this region
was relatively quiescent. However, on 26 December 2004, the Sumatran mega-thrust earthquake
occurred in the west coast of Northern Sumatra, Indonesia with a moment magnitude, M
w
9.3 and
triggered a massive tsunami which devastated throughout several countries bordering the Indian
Ocean and caused significant damages to Malaysia. The great Sumatran earthquake produced 1.1
x 10
17
Nm of total energy at the depth of 20-30 km with maximum length of 1200 km along the
interface between the Indonesia and Burmese plates and 20 m displacement of the fault plane
(Murty, 2007). The devastating tsunami waves struck along the northwest coastal areas in
Peninsular Malaysia particularly in the coastal areas of Penang, Kedah, Perlis and to a lesser
extent Perak and Selangor. The tsunami claimed 68 lives, 6 missing and 300 victims injured (The
Star Newspaper, 2005) and the estimated cost of destroyed properties about RM100 millions
(e.g. Tajul, 2005). In response to this event, the Malaysian government has decided to set up the
Malaysian National Tsunami Early Warning System in 2005 by deploying deep ocean tsunami
buoys in strategic locations, coastal surveillance monitoring cameras, warning sirens, tide gauges
and seismic stations.
Apart from that, the government has to increase the public awareness and disaster
preparedness especially in tsunami hazard at the community level. In November 2007, the
Malaysian Meteorological Department (MMD) had conducted the first public awareness
disasters campaign on earthquake and tsunami held in Sabah. This campaign also has been
extended into high risks areas in Sarawak and Peninsular Malaysia in 2008 and 2009.


















Page 2 of 110


1.1 Seismicity and Tectonics of Malaysia

Malaysia is located close to the most seismically active plate boundaries between the Indo-
Australia Plate and Eurasian Plate in the west and between Philippine Sea Plate and Eurasian
Plate in the east (Figure 1). Generally, Malaysia is considered as a country with relatively low
seismicity except for the state of Sabah. Therefore, Malaysia is facing a certain degree of
earthquake risks from both distant and local earthquakes, particularly in Sabah. Major
earthquakes with long period surface waves originating from active seismic areas along the
subduction zones in west coast of Sumatra, Sulawesi and Philippines have been felt especially in
the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah. Thus, empirical evidence suggests that
Malaysia is not totally free from seismic risks.


Figure 1. Seismicity and tectonics profile in the area of reporting from 1979 to 2008. The
colors and circles are representing the categories of the hypocenter depth and magnitude,
respectively.
I
n
d
o
-
A
u
s
t
r
a
l
i
a

p
l
a
t
e
E
u
r
a
s
i
a
n

p
l
a
t
e
Page 3 of 110


1.2 Felt Earthquakes

A felt earthquake is referring to the tremors felt in Malaysia due to the earthquake activities in
the active seismic areas mainly along the Sumatra subduction zone, Sumatra fault line and
earthquakes of local origin. In the past 30 years, the Malaysian Meteorological Department
recorded 98 felt earthquakes in total since 1979 in the area of reporting (Figure 2). Peninsular
Malaysia had experienced tremors originating from the Sumatra earthquake belt with maximum
intensity up to VII on the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) scale. While Sabah and Sarawak
had experienced earthquakes of local origin, appeared to be related with several active faults, and
the maximum MMI scale was VII and VI, respectively (MMD, 2009a).



Figure 2. Felt earthquakes recorded by local seismological stations from 1979 to 2008.



Page 4 of 110


1.3 Local Origin Earthquakes

Malaysia had also experienced earthquakes of local origin (Figure 3). These local earthquakes
are associated with active fault that exists in Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak. Several
possible active faults have been delineated and local earthquakes in Peninsular Malaysia are
appearing to be isolated and infrequent. Earthquakes of local origin which had occurred in
Terengganu in 1995 were resulted from the impounding of the Kenyir Dam and not due to
tectonism. Between 30 November 2007 and 25 May 2008, a total of 22 weak earthquakes with
magnitudes ranging from 1.8 to 3.5 had occurred in Bukit Tinggi, Pahang.
The 1976 Lahad Datu earthquake with a magnitude of 5.8 on the Richter scale had caused
some houses and buildings to develop cracks in the walls. A four-storey police complex nearing
completion was severely damaged. Several roads in the district are reported to have cracked too,
causing damages. Similarly, the 1991 Ranau earthquake of a magnitude of 5.2 on the Richter
scale caused extensive damages to a four-storey teachers quarters, and was certified unfit for
occupation. The earthquake with a magnitude of 4.8 occurred on 2 May 2004 near Miri, Sarawak
likewise caused some damages to the non-reinforced concrete buildings and developed cracks on
the ground.
In 2009, MMD had recorded 16 weak earthquakes. The earthquake distributions were
fourteen (14) in Peninsular Malaysia and two (2) in Sabah.


Figure 3. Local origin earthquakes recorded from year 1979 to 2008 in Malaysia.

Page 5 of 110


1.4 Recent Tsunamis

In the last half decade, many recent earthquakes along the subduction zones had generated
tsunami events (Table 1 and Figure 4). The Indian Ocean Tsunami on 26 December 2004 was
the most significant recent tsunami which devastated throughout several countries bordering the
Indian Ocean. The final death toll amounted to 229,867 people, the largest for any tsunami event
and one of the greatest for any natural disaster (United Nations, 2006).

Table 1. Information of the recent earthquake events from 2004-2009 (USGS)
Date Earthquake Magnitude (M
w
) Longitude Latitude
Dec 2004 Sumatra-Andaman 9.1 95.854
0
E 3.316
0
N
Jul 2006 West Java 7.8 107.320
0
E 9.222
0
S
Jan 2007 Molucca Sea 7.5 132.783
0
E 0.1510
0
S
Apr 2007 Solomon Islands 8.0 156.957
0
E 8.453
0
S
Sep 2007 Bengkulu 8.4 101.382
0
E 4.517
0
S
Nov 2008 Sulawesi 7.3 122.100
0
E 1.290
0
N
Jan 2009 Irian Jaya 7.6 126.395
0
E 1.222
0
N
Aug 2009 Andaman Islands 7.6 92.923
0
E 14.013
0
N
Sep 2009 Southern Sumatra 7.6 99.856
0
E 0.725
0
S


Figure 4. Epicenters (red circles) of the recent earthquakes that generated tsunami event.
Page 6 of 110


1.5 Tsunami Early Warning System in Malaysia

In 2005, the Malaysian government decided to set up the Malaysian National Tsunami Early
Warning System to overcome the lack of capability in carrying out tsunami watch and the
issuance of early warning for tsunami in the nation. The set up of the Malaysian National
Tsunami Early Warning System is based on the following key features (Low, 2005):
1. Maintaining real-time continuous monitoring of earthquake occurrences and tsunami on a
24-hour basis throughout the year.
2. Issuance of information, advisory, notice, early warning and warning on the occurrence
of earthquake and tsunami that threaten the security and safety of Malaysia.
3. The system shall be an integral part of the proposed Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning
System to be coordinated by the Intergovernmental Oceanic Commission (IOC),
UNESCO.

1.5.1 Overview of the Malaysian National Tsunami Early Warning System
The Malaysian National Tsunami Early Warning System consists of 3 major components,
namely data and information collection, processing and dissemination (Figure 5).
The data and information component comprises data collection networks sub-systems
such as seismic network, deep ocean buoy network, tide gauge network, coastal camera network
and linkage to Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA),
Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System (IOTWS) and other tsunami warning centers.
The processing component sub-systems comprises integration and analysis to integrate
all the necessary input information, an intelligent decision making as guidance for quick decision
making to issue tsunami information or warning, tsunami prediction to expedite the
determination of possible occurrence or non-occurrence of tsunami, television and mini-studio
for direct broadcasting to the media.
The dissemination component is designed to disseminate advisory or warning and other
information to the relevant personnel and agencies within 15 minutes after the occurrence of an
earthquake. The modes of dissemination are sorted out into dispatching short messages (SMS) to
mobile phones, sending telefaxes to relevant disaster management agencies, transmitting relevant
information to mass media via broadcasting system, public announcement system such as
warning sirens and alarms, transmitting the seismic and tsunami information to the National
Disaster Data and Information system (NADDI) located at the Malaysian Remote Sensing
Agency (MACRES) and automated updating of the Malaysian Meteorological Department
(MMD) earthquake and tsunami web pages.




Page 7 of 110



Figure 5. System overview of Malaysian National Tsunami Early Warning System (Low, 2005)

1.5.2 Seismic Network
Malaysian Meteorological Department operates a total of 17 seismological stations throughout
the country with 10 broadband seismometers (Streckeisen STS-2) and 7 short period
seismometers (SS-1 Ranger) as shown in Figure 6. The seismic stations are located at Kulim,
Ipoh, Kuala Lumpur, Kluang, Kota Tinggi, Kuala Terengganu, Jerantut, Kuching, Sibu, Bintulu,
Bakun, Kota Kinabalu, Kudat, Sandakan, Lahad Datu, Sapulut and Tawau.
The current real time digital seismic network is able to detect earthquakes and acquire
digital seismic waves from various seismometers and accelerometers. Each remote seismological
station is installed with three components weak motion seismometer and strong motion
accelerometer (episensor). The real time data is transmitted via VSAT telemetry using 256 kbps
digital leased line communication from the service providers satellite gateway to the central
processing center in headquarter of MMD for processing, analysis and dissemination.
The central processing center runs Boulder Real Time Technologies (BRTT) Antelope
system as processing software on SUN Blade for real time and post processing base. BRTT
provides software which supports the collection, archiving, integration, and processing of
environment sensors, particularly seismic sensors. The Antelope Real Time System (ARTS) is
providing automatic and manual event detections, arrival picking, locations and magnitude
calculation. MMD is also using SeismComP3 and EarlyBird processing software for comparison
with Antelope.
Apart from that, MMD also operates a total of 10 strong motion stations had been
installed in Klang Valley area. The strong motion stations are located at Gohtong Jaya, Shah
Page 8 of 110


Alam, Bukit Kiara, Dusun Tua, Serendah, Ulu Yam, Beranang, Kundang, Janda Baik and
Putrajaya.



Figure 6. Locations of seismic stations in Malaysia. (Blue triangles: stations with
Streckeisen STS-2 seismometers, yellow triangles: new stations with Streckeisen STS-2
seismometers, green triangles: stations with SS-1 Ranger seismometers) (e.g. Zamuna,
2009)


1.5.3 Tide Gauge Network
The tide gauge stations should be situated at strategic locations such as the one facing the open
sea, where tsunami waves should not be high, with easier national leveling network connection
and outcropped bedrock without accumulation of sand or mud and effective for warning
purposes (Shiraihi, 2008). For the case of local tsunamis, many tide gauges are needed along the
coastlines to get real time confirmation and evaluation of tsunami waves. The location of the sea
level gauges plays an important role in tsunami warning particularly in prediction of tsunami
occurrences, monitoring in progress of tsunami and estimation of severity of tsunami along the
coasts.
The total of 6 tide gauge stations (Table 2 and Figure 7) had been installed in strategic
locations, and serve as the first line monitoring system to detect the rise and fall of sea water
levels. The INMARSAT satellite communication is used for real time data transmission to the
central processing center in headquarter of MMD for analysis. In a normal mode, the data
transmission cycle is every 1 hour and only one averaged value of the data in the last 15 minutes
is transmitted. In case where the sea level change exceeds the set threshold or tsunami generation
is expected than usual normal mode, then the system will automatically or remotely changed to
tsunami mode. In a tsunami mode, the data transmission is done every 1 minute and only one
Page 9 of 110


averaged value of the data in the last 15 seconds is transmitted. Currently, MMD also collects
sea-level data from 79 overseas tidal stations in near-real time via WMO and GTS circuit. An
additional of 15 new tide gauge stations will join the current National Tide Gauge Network in
near future.

Table 2. List of tide gauge stations operated by MMD (MMD, 2009b)
Location Name Longitude Latitude
Porto Malai, Langkawi 99.76
0
E 6.24
0
N
Pulau Perak, Kedah 98.92
0
E 5.71
0
N
Pantai Kerachut, Penang 100.20
0
E 5.45
0
N
Pulau Perhentian, Terengganu 102.70
0
E 5.93
0
N
Kudat, Sabah 116.85
0
E 6.90
0
N
Lahad Datu, Sabah 119.09
0
E 5.05
0
N


Figure 7. The location of existing and future tide gauge stations.

1.5.4 Deep Ocean Buoy Network
The Malaysian deep ocean buoy network consists of three (3) operational data buoys (Figure 8
and Table 3) with seabed mounted tsunami detection modules and has been deployed at the
strategic locations. The first tsunami buoy of Malaysia was installed near the Rondo Island,
Sumatra, Indonesia on 30 December 2005 and the second tsunami buoy was installed on 7 March
2006 near the Layang-Layang Island (Shallow Reef), Sabah in the South China Sea region. The
last tsunami buoy will be installed in the Sulu Sea region to provide early warning on tsunami
generation near the Philippines and Sulu Sea (MMD, 2009b). The detailed information of the
deep ocean buoys are described in Table 3.
Page 10 of 110



Figure 8. The locations of Malaysian Deep Ocean buoy (MMD, 2009b).

Table 3. List of name and location of Malaysian Deep Ocean buoys (MMD, 2009b).
Buoy name Location Name Longitude, Latitude
Buoy 1 Rondo Island, Indonesia 95.10
0
E, 6.10
0
N
Buoy 2 Layang-Layang Island, Malaysia 113.79
0
E, 7.37
0
N
Buoy 3 Sulu Sea To be installed

The position of the buoys is based on the study that would maximize the lead time for the
states to issue a warning to the communities in coastal areas. The Malaysian deep ocean buoys
are equipped with bottom pressure sensor positioned in the deep ocean that is able to detect the
early passing of tsunami before it reaches shallow waters and causes destruction along the
coastlines. The buoys data are then transmitted via satellite communication system
(INMARSAT) to the server provided at the Malaysian National Tsunami Early Warning Center,
MMD. In a normal mode, the data transmission cycle is every 1 hour and only one averaged
value of the data in the last 15 minutes is transmitted. When the sea level change exceeds a set
threshold or tsunami generation is expected than usual normal mode, then the system will
automatically or remotely change to tsunami mode. In a tsunami mode, the data transmission is
done every 15 seconds and only one averaged value of the data in the last 15 seconds is
transmitted. Apart from that, MMD also collects sea-level data from 18 overseas NOAA Dart
buoys in near-real time via WMO and GTS circuit.

1.5.5 Coastal Camera Network
Currently, a total of 4 coastal cameras had been installed in the strategic locations along the
coastlines of northern parts of Peninsular Malaysia at Batu Feringgi, Pasir Panjang and Kuala
Muda in Penang and Pantai Chenang in Langkawi Island, Kedah to provide vital information on
sea conditions at the coastal areas (Figure 9). In the near future, MMD will enhance the
capability of the coastal camera network by adding a total of 14 coastal cameras into the existing
network.
Buoy 1
Buoy 2
Buoy 3
Page 11 of 110




Figure 9. The location of existing and future coastal cameras.

1.5.6 Tsunami Siren Warning Network
Currently, a total of 13 warning sirens had been installed in the populated coastal areas and
beaches along the coastlines of Malaysia (Figure 10). The siren network is intended to provide
notification of an emergency to warn and ensure public safety within the affected areas. In the
near future, MMD will add a total of 10 warning sirens into the existing network.


Figure 10. The location of existing and future warning sirens.
Page 12 of 110


1.5.7 Disaster Alert System (DAS)
Disaster alert system is a fixed lines alert system (FLAS) to deliver voice messages via fixed
telephone line to the public in the affected areas. FLAS enables the Malaysian National Tsunami
Early Warning centre to perform mass broadcast of alert voice messages by making outbound
calls to TMs fixed line subscribers. FLAS is able to broadcast alert messages to a large volume
of recipients. FLAS supports outbound call to states, districts, towns and area based on the user
selection according to the identified tsunami risk areas.


1.6 Review and Purpose

The study on Tsunami Early Warning System in Malaysia to issue tsunami warning using pre-
computed scenarios database was carried out by Norhadizah (2007). This study is emphasis on
how to make the database for tsunami using the tsunami simulation results as pre-computed
scenarios. This study also introduces entering data into the database, retrieving data from the
database, and then applying to the Tsunami Early Warning System for issuance of the warning.
The study of appropriate modeling of tsunamis in Malaysia for risk evaluation had been carried
out by Zaty (2007) using numerical method of tsunami simulation with the staggered leap-frog
scheme (TUNAMI) developed by Disaster Control Research Center, Tohoku University, Japan.
A prototype database for Tsunami Early Warning System with Data Assimilation in
Malaysia was undertaken by Chai (2008). This study was a refinement to the procedures
especially in retrieving data from database and cancellation of tsunami warning. This study has
developed a practical forecast system that combines real seismic and tsunami data with a forecast
database of pre-computed scenarios as guidance tools during the actual tsunami event.
The purpose of this study is to develop a tsunami database for the National Tsunami
Early Warning Centre of Malaysia (MNTEWC) in parallel to the implementation plan of
Regional Tsunami Watch Providers (RTWP). In order to reach the status of RTWP by 2011, the
MNTEWC should develop 3 Service Levels capabilities to provide tsunami advisories over the
Indian Ocean countries through bilateral arrangements. Service Level 1 is the service level
provided by the Interim Advisory Service for event analysis and provision of a series of
advisories from the initial assessment. Service Level 2 is a more robust service level that
includes all the elements of Service Level 1 but adds modeling and forecast. Service Level 3
links the Service Level 2 services and products with local risk, hazard assessment and
inundation models through National Tsunami Warning Centers (NTWCs) to provide coastal
inundation forecast for communities at risk.


1.7 Scope of Study Area

The scope of study area covers the region from 50
0
S to 40
0
N and 10
0
E to 150
0
E in latitude and
longitude, respectively, which covers wider areas in Indian Ocean, Pacific Ocean, Andaman Sea,
Philippines Sea, South China Sea, Sulu Sea, Celebes Sea and Banda Sea.


Page 13 of 110


2. DATA
2.1 Bathymetry Data

The General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO One Minute Grid, approximately to
1850 m) is downloaded from the Internet at http://www.gebco.net, and drawn in three dimensions
chart (Figure 11) by Generic Mapping Tool software (Wessel and Smith, 2007). In tsunami
numerical simulations, the accurate bathymetric data is essential and plays important roles
because the phase velocity of the tsunami wave depends on the water depth (Fujii and Satake,
2006). This original bathymetric data is then modified to 2 and 5 arc-minute of spatial grid sizes,
approximately to 3700 and 9250 m, respectively. On the other hand, this bathymetry data is also
used to calculate tsunami travel times by using TTT software and waveforms at the outpoint
points.


Figure 11. Bathymetry chart of the study area in three dimensions.
Page 14 of 110


3. THEORY

3.1 Causes of Tsunami

Tsunamis are water waves generated by the disturbance caused by submarine earthquakes,
landslides, explosive volcanism and large meteorite impact with the ocean. The major cause of
tsunami generation in the Pacific Ocean over the last 200 years is due to earthquakes generated
in a subduction zone, an area where plate tectonic forces are forcing an oceanic plate down into
mantle. When the energy accumulates in the overriding plate exceeds the frictional forces
between the two struck plates caused the overriding plate spans back into an unrestrained
position. This sudden motion is the cause of the tsunami because it gives an enormous shove to
the overlying water. Tsunami generation depends on several factors such as magnitude, depth,
faulting and rupture of ocean bottom. Most of the earthquakes with magnitude more than 7.9 will
cause destructive local tsunami near the epicenter and significant sea level changes causing
severe damages at great distances (Chadha, 2007). Shallow submarine earthquake events (<100
km) could cause the vertical displacement of ocean bottom to generate tsunami rather than
deeper events (>100 km). Thus, earthquakes with thrust or normal fault mechanism are most
likely to generate a tsunami rather than a strike slip fault.


3.2 Ocean Bottom and Sea Surface Displacements

During the generation of phase, an ocean bottom disturbance due to an earthquake reshapes the
sea surface into a tsunami. The initial conditions at ocean bottom and surface water differ by
factor of kd cosh / 1 , where k and d is wave number and water depth, respectively. When the
wavelength ( ) is much larger than d t 2 ( d t 2 >> ) the factor of kd cosh / 1 is approaching 1.
Hence, sea surface displacement is the same as the ocean bottom displacement by assuming that
the wavelength of the ocean bottom deformation is much larger than the water depth (Kajiura,
1963).


3.3 Propagation of Near-field Tsunamis

Propagation of near-field tsunamis, the waves of which propagate less than 1,000 km distances,
could be considered on a Cartesian coordinate system in numerical simulations. The
computational area for tsunami simulation in near-field tsunamis is small compared with
computational area for far-field tsunamis. Thus, for better results in numerical simulation,
Cartesian coordinate system is applicable.




Page 15 of 110


3.3.1 Governing Equation in Cartesian Coordinate System
The shallow water approximation assumed that the vertical acceleration of water particle is
negligible compared to the gravitational acceleration except for an oceanic propagation of
tsunami (Kajiura, 1963). Thus, the vertical motion of the particles has no effect on the pressure
distribution assuming that pressure is hydrostatic. For the case of tsunami propagation in
shallow water, the horizontal eddy turbulence is negligible compared to the bottom friction
except for run-up on the land. The fundamental equations of continuity and momentum in two
dimensional for Cartesian coordinate system can be expressed by following equations (Imamura,
1995):

0 =
c
c
+
c
c
+
c
c
y
N
x
M
t
q

0
2
= +
c
c
+
|
.
|

\
|
c
c
+
|
|
.
|

\
|
c
c
+
c
c

t q
x
x
gD
D
MN
y D
M
x t
M

0
2
= +
c
c
+
|
|
.
|

\
|
c
c
+
|
.
|

\
|
c
c
+
c
c

t
q
y
y
gD
D
N
y D
MN
x t
N


where x and y are horizontal axes, t is time, is the vertical displacement of water surface above
the still water surface, g is the gravitational acceleration, D is the total water (D = h+ ),
x
and
y
are the bottom frictions in the x and y directions, respectively and is density. M and N are the
components of discharge fluxes in the x and y directions which are given by,

}

= + = =
q
q
h
uD h u udz M ) (

}

= + = =
q
q
h
vD h v vdz N ) (

where u and v are water particle velocities in the x and y directions, respectively, while and h
are the vertical displacement of water surface above the still water surface and still water depth,
respectively.


3.3.2 Bottom Friction Term
The analogy of the uniform flow, the bottom friction is generally expressed by following
equations (Imamura, 1995):
2 2
3
7
2
2 2
3
7
2
N M N
D
gn
N M M
D
gn
y
x
+ =
+ =

t


where n is Manningss roughness.
(
2
)
(
3
)
(1)
(2)
(3)
Page 16 of 110


The relation between friction coefficient f and n are described by the following equation
(Imamura, 1995):

g
fD
n
2
3 / 1
=

The n should be selected depending on the condition of the bottom surface (Table 4).

Table 4. The coefficient values of the Bottom Friction n (Linsley and Franzini, 1979)
Channel Material n
Neat cement, smooth metal 0.010
Rubble masonry 0.017
Smooth earth 0.018
Natural channels in good condition 0.025
Natural channels with stones and weeds 0.035
Very poor natural channels 0.060


3.4 Propagation of Far-field Tsunamis

Propagation of far-field tsunamis are described as waves which propagate more than 1,000 km
over the ocean and in numerical simulations should be considered polar coordinate system
(Shuto, 1997). The physical dispersion wave of tsunami cannot be neglected when tsunami
energy travels in a long distance over the ocean. Propagation of tsunamis in long distance should
consider the effects of earths sphere and rotation due to Coriolis force.
In this study, for far-field tsunamis that propagate across a large ocean, the linear long
wave theory is used in spherical coordinates system (R, u, |) where R is radius of the earth, u is
co-latitude measured from North Pole () to south and | is longitude measured to the east from
Greenwich Meridian (Figure 12).



Figure 12. The spherical coordinates system for rotating earth (e.g. Zaty, 2007).

(
4
)

|
u
R
(4)
Page 17 of 110


3.4.1 Governing Equation in Spherical Coordinates System
The integrated equations for linear long wave theory on the rotating earth in the spherical
coordinates system must consider the Coriolis force effect, which is used in the computation of
trans-oceanic tsunami propagation by following equations (Nagano, 1991):

0
0
cos
0 ) cos (
cos
1
= +
c
c
+
c
c
=
c
c
+
c
c
=
(

c
c
+
c
c
+
c
c
fM
R
gh
t
N
fN
R
gh
t
M
N
M
R t
u
q

q
u
u
u u
q


In which q is the water surface elevation, M and N are discharge fluxes along the latitude u and
longitude , h is the water depth, f is the Coriolis parameter ( u esin 2 = f ), g is the gravitational
acceleration and R is radius of the earth.


3.5 Ocean Bottom Deformation

The dislocation of the ocean bottom can be calculated from those fault plane parameters (Figure
13) using the elastic theory given by Okada (1985). If an earthquake occurs in the level deeper
than 100 km under the ocean bottom, no lift will take place on the ocean bottom and tsunami will
not be generated. Usually, only the vertical component of the ocean bottom is considered for
tsunami generation. When the tsunami source is on a steep ocean slope and the horizontal
displacement is large, the vertical displacement of the water due to the horizontal displacement
of the slope must be considered (Tanioka and Satake 1996a).
To compute the surface deformation, the fault parameters such as fault location, geometry
(strike, dip and rake), size (length L and width W) and average slip u need to be defined first.
The seismic moment M
o
is given as
uLW uS M = =
0


where S is the fault area and is rigidity. Thus, the moment magnitude is defined as

5 . 1
1 . 9 log
0

=
M
M
W


(
5
)
(5)
(6)
(7)
Page 18 of 110



Figure 13. Fault plane parameters (Satake, 2008).


3.6 Scaling Law

Scaling law theory is used to determine the fault size parameters such as length, width and slip
amount (Tatehata, 1997). This theory is useful to calculate the parameter of earthquake events,
which is controlled by moment magnitude. The equations of scaling law theory are expressed as
follows:

9 . 1 5 . 0 log =
W
M L
2
L
W =
4 . 1 5 . 0 log =
W
M U

Here, L is length (km), W is width (km), U is slip amount (cm) and M
w
is moment magnitude.


3.7 Greens Law

The Greens Law is applied to estimate the reliable tsunami heights for coastal point from the
forecast point at the sea using conservation theory of potential energy along the rays by assuming
that there is no reflection, no energy loss and small wave heights (e.g. Satake, 2008). The
tsunami height at coastal points can be defined as

1
4
1
0
1
2
1
0
1
0
h
d
d
b
b
h
|
|
.
|

\
|
|
|
.
|

\
|
=

where, b
0
and b
1
are distances between the rays at the coastal and forecast points, h
0
and h
1
are
tsunami heights at the coastal and forecast points and d
0
and d
1
are water depths at the coastal
(
6
)
(
7
)
(9)
(8)
Page 19 of 110


and forecast points, respectively. This law is only applicable to direct waves and is not taken into
account for the reflected waves or edge waves. If the tsunami wave front at the forecast point (h
1
,
d
1
) is parallel with the coastal point (h
0
, d
0
), the ratio of
0 1
/ b b is assumed as 1. Then, the
equation (9) is simplified to
1
4
1
0
1
0
h
d
d
h
|
|
.
|

\
|
=

3.8 Numerical Model

The finite difference method is used to discrete expression of approximation of the differential
equation and is extensively used for numerical analysis to solve differential equations. In the
finite difference method, mainly three forms of differences such as forward, backward and
central are considered. The expression of the finite difference is similar but the order of errors is
different. The forward difference and backward difference have an error of the first order and
central difference has an error of second order.

3.8.1 Staggered leap-frog Scheme
In the numerical modeling of tsunami, the governing equations (1) can be discretized by using a
staggered leap-frog scheme (Shuto, 1990). Staggered scheme is a grid system to set variables in
spatial domain staggeringly. The scalar variable like is set on the center of a grid, and vector
variable like M and N is on the side as shown in Figure 14. Basically, the leap-frog scheme is
using central difference to discretize the equation (1) to be solved numerically with truncation
errors of the second order. The advantages of the staggered leap-frog scheme are that it is simple,
easy to set boundary conditions, provides stable result as long as the Courant condition is
satisfied and there is no dissipative error. However, the disadvantages of this scheme are
existence of dispersive and second order error.

Figure 14. Staggered leap-frog scheme in x-y domain (left) and x-t domain (right).
(Imamura, 2006).
(
8
)
(10)
Page 20 of 110


The discretization of equation (1) is rather complicated by considering the bottom friction and
non-linear terms. The numerical schemes of TUNAMI code for shallow water equations in two
dimensions Cartesian coordinate system for linear term without considering the non-linear and
bottom friction terms can be summarized as follows (Koshimura, 2008):

( ) ( )
2 / 1
2 / 1 ,
2 / 1
2 / 1 ,
2 / 1
, 2 / 1
2 / 1
, 2 / 1 ,
1
,
+

+
+
+

+
+
+

A
A
+
A
A
+ =
k
j i
k
j i
k
j i
k
j i
k
j i
k
j i
N N
y
t
M M
x
t
q q

( )
( )
k
j i
k
j i
k
j i
k
j i
k
j i
k
j i
x
t
D D
g M M
, , 1
, , 1
2 / 1
, 2 / 1
2 / 1
, 2 / 1
2
q q
A
A
+
=
+
+

+
+
+


( )
( )
k
j i
k
j i
k
j i
k
j i
k
j i
k
j i
y
t
D D
g N N
, 1 ,
, 1 ,
2 / 1
2 / 1 ,
2 / 1
2 / 1 ,
2
q q
A
A
+
=
+
+

+
+
+


Here, At and Ax are corresponding to temporal and spatial grid sizes respectively, subscript i and
k represent the spatial grid number ( ) x i x A = and time ( ) t k t A = , respectively.
Numerical schemes of TUNAMI code of equations (5) for linear long wave theory in
spherical coordinates system through Figure 15 can be summarized as follows (Shuto, 1997):

0
4 cos
2
1
,
2
1
,
2
1
, 1
2
1
, 1
2
1
,
2
1
, 1
,
2
1
,
2
1
1
,
2
1
=
(

+ + +
A

+
A

+ + + +
+ +
+
+ +
+
+
n
m j
n
m j
n
m j
n
m j
n
m j
n
m j
m
m j
n
m j
n
m j
N N N N
f
R
gh
t
M M

q q
u


0
cos cos
cos
1
2
1
2
1
,
2
1
2
1
, ,
2
1
,
2
1
2
1
,
2
1
,
=
(
(
(

+
A

+
A
+ + +
+
u
u u
u
q q m
n
m j m
n
m j
n
m j
n
m j
m
n
m j
n
m j
N N M M
R t


0
4 sin
,
2
1
1 ,
2
1
,
2
1
2
1
,
2
1
2
1
,
2
1
1 ,
,
2
1
,
2
1
1
,
2
1
=
(

+ + + +
A

+
A

+ + + +
+ +
+
+ +
+
+
n
m j
n
m j
n
m j
n
m j
n
m j
n
m j
m
m j
n
m j
n
m j
M M M M
f
R
gh
t
N N
u
q q
u


Here, a point of computation is numbered as ( n m j , , ) in the ( t , , u ) directions, u A and A are
computation grid lengths in the latitude and longitude directions, respectively. R is the radius of
the earth, g is the gravitational acceleration, h is the water depth, and f represents the Coriolis
force coefficient due to the rotation of the earth.





(
1
0
)
(11)
(12)
Page 21 of 110



Figure 15. Computation point for water level and discharge (Shuto, 1997).


3.8.2 Numerical Stability
To perform the calculation in a stable and reasonable way by considering the CFL (Courant
Friedrics Lewy) condition given by the following formula (Imamura, 2006):

max
2gh
x
t
A
s A

Here, Ax is spatial grid size, t is temporal grid size, g is gravity acceleration (9.8 m/s
2
) and h
max

is the greatest sea depth in the calculated area. If the temporal grid size was set at more than the
CFL condition, the numerical simulations would result with instability.



4. METHODOLOGY


4.1 Tsunamigenic Earthquake Locations

The locations of the tsunamigenic earthquake are searched through Global Centroid Moment
Tensor Project catalog search from the year 1976 until 2008 which is downloaded from the
Internet at http://www.globalcmt.org/CMTsearch.html. The depths are from 0 to 100 km and
magnitudes from 6.5 to 10 considering that the most possible tsunami can occur due to an
earthquake. Epicenters are chosen within 10
0
E to 150
0
E and 50
0
S to 40
0
N in longitude and
latitude, respectively (Figure 16).
Comparison at the same criteria for depths and magnitudes are made with other searches
of tsunami databases taken from Integrated Tsunami Database for the World Ocean (WinITDB,
2007) and National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) Tsunami Event Database at
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov which covered the wider data. However, these databases showed
insufficient information available on the fault parameters. Thus, comparisons of the fault
(
1
1
)
(13)
Page 22 of 110


parameters from Global CMT Project catalog with these databases are made in terms of location,
magnitude and depth to determine the locations of tsunamigenic earthquake.


Figure 16. Location of tsunamigenic earthquake events from Global CMT Project catalog
search (focal mechanisms), WinITDB (red stars) and NGDC (blue triangles) drawn by
using GMT commands in two dimensions bathymetry data of study area.

The results had almost similarity in that the locations of the tsunamigenic earthquake are
located along the subduction zones and fault lines. However, an earthquake that occurred along
the fault lines is unlikely to generate tsunami due to strike-slip fault mechanism. The main
concern is the shallower earthquakes occurring along the subduction zones have high possibility
to generate tsunami due to the reverse fault mechanism.





Page 23 of 110


4.2 Magnitude and Depth

The magnitude and depth are set based on the historical earthquake events which are taken from
Global Centroid Moment Tensor Project catalog search, Integrated Tsunami Database for the
World Ocean (WinITDB, 2007) and National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC). Comparison is
made in terms of magnitudes and depths (Figure 17). The minimum magnitude of 6.5 is set based
on the MMD tsunami warning criteria when distant tsunami hazard more than 200 km from
Malaysian coastline exists (e.g. Saw, 2007). Since the distributions of magnitude and depth are
denser between M
w
6.5 to M
w
8.5 and shallower than 60 km therefore, the interval of magnitude
and depth are chosen as described in Table 5.


Figure 17. Distribution of magnitudes (horizontal axis) and depths (vertical axis)

Table 5. The list of magnitudes and depths are based on historical earthquake events.
Magnitude (M
w
) Depth (km)
6.5 0
7.0 20
7.5 40
8.0 60
8.5
Page 24 of 110


4.3 Source Points

By definition, the source point is defined as the center of tsunami source and equivalent to center
of the fault in width and length of the earthquake. The location of the source points is chosen
among the earthquake source areas searched through historical earthquake events from Global
CMT Project catalog search and WinITBD (Figure 16). The source points are located along the
most active subduction zones (Figure 18). Each source point is located on the grid point with
distance interval of 30 arc-minutes (~50 km) along the earthquake sources. The total numbers of
source points for each model of TUNAMI-F1 and NAMI-DANCE is 1547, and 181 for
TUNAMI-N2 with 5 magnitudes (M
w
6.5, 7.0, 7.5, 8.0 and 8.5) and 4 depths (0, 20, 40 and 60
km). This means that one source point consists of 20 scenarios. Therefore, the total of scenarios
for each model of TUNAMI-F1 and NAMI-DANCE is 30940 and 3620 for TUNAMI-N2.


Figure 18. Epicenters of theoretical earthquakes with differential by strike angle.







Page 25 of 110


4.4 Forecast and Coastal Points

The forecast points are located along the bathymetric contour depth of 50 m with random
interval distance between each point as shown in Figure 19. The forecast points (red triangles in
Figure 19) are located along the coastal area which is defined as output point in tsunami
numerical simulations. According to JMA, the forecast point of 50 m is chosen considering the
effects of the non-linear term in shallow water theory.
The coastal points are located at 1 m bathymetric contour depth along the coastlines
because we clipped the water depth in bathymetry data at minimum to 1 m. The coastal points
(blue circles in Figure 19) are placed along the coastlines with random interval distance. The
location of coastal points is determined and searched using Google Earth (2009) considering the
most vulnerable areas for tsunami impacts, denser population areas and tourism attractions. In
order to represent the spreading of ray equivalent to 1, the forecast and coastal points are
situated in parallel position to each other along the rays. Thus, the tsunami heights at the coastal
points are then estimated by Greens Law theory based on the tsunami heights at forecast points
with bathymetric contour depths of 50 m. Neither forecast nor coastal point which is not located
in the grid point of the bathymetry contour depth as mentioned above due to the complexity of
the coastal bathymetry. The nearest grid point of the bathymetry contour depth is selected to
locate the forecast point or coastal point.


Figure 19. Location of the coastal points (blue circles) and forecast points (red triangles).

Page 26 of 110


4.4.1 Greens Law
In numerical simulations, using the finer grid is essential to estimate the accurate tsunami heights
especially in shallow waters as the phase velocity of tsunami wave depends on the water depth
(Fujii and Satake, 2006). In numerical simulations, if we use bathymetry data of 1, 2 and 5 arc-
minute, it is less reliable to estimate the tsunami heights at the coastal points.
In order to avoid longer computation of tsunami propagation in shallow waters and
underestimation of tsunami heights at coastal points, the Greens Law calculation is applied.
Greens Law calculation using equation (10) is applied to obtain the reliable tsunami height at
the coastal points based on the maximum tsunami height at the forecast points with bathymetric
contour depth of 50 m. In this case, the forecast point and coastal point are situated in parallel
position to each other, so that the ratio of
0 1
/ b b in equation (9) is assumed as 1 (Figure 20).


Figure 20. Forecast point (green circle) and coastal point (red circle) are situated in
parallel position to each other.

Page 27 of 110


4.5 Initial Condition

Tsunami source is a center of fault in width and length and defined as center of fault (COF). In
tsunami numerical simulations the input of tsunami source is at top left corner (TLC) as shown in
Figure 21. The strike angle (| ) assumed to be parallel to the trench axis. Dip angle () and rake
angle () are assumed as 45
0
and 90
0
, respectively for the most credible worst case of tsunami
event.


Figure 21. Fault plane parameters. Red dashed line indicated as depth of center fault (DCF).

4.5.1 Depth of Top Left Corner
The depth of TLC (Figure 22) can be calculated from depth of center fault by following equation:

o sin
2
W
DCF d
TLC
=

Here,
TLC
d is depth of TLC, DCF is depth of center fault, W is width and is dip angle.

Figure 22. Vertical cross section of fault plane. Red star indicated the center of fault and
X is the distance from TLC and perpendicular with DCF.
(
1
2
)
(14)
Page 28 of 110


4.5.2 Location of Top Left Corner
The location of the TLC can be calculated based on the location and depth of the COF. Figure 23
shows the top view of the fault plane in Figure 22.

Figure 23. Top view of the fault plane in Figure 19. Red star indicated the center of fault (COF)

The change of longitude x and latitude y to obtain the location of TLC is defined as

( )
(

|
.
|

\
| +
= A
180
cos
226 . 110
| | t R
x


( )
(

|
.
|

\
| +
= A
180
sin
578 . 110
| | t R
y


which | is strike direction, X = Wcos,
|
.
|

\
|
=

L
X
1
tan
180
t
| and R =
2 2
2 2
|
.
|

\
|
+ |
.
|

\
| L X

The coefficients value of 110.226 and 110.578 are corresponding to length (km) per 1
degree for longitude and latitude, respectively. These coefficients value are based on 8
0
N in
latitude. The location of COF moves to east and south. Thus, TLC location can be calculated
based on the following equations:

Longitude
TLC
= Longitude
COF
+ x

Latitude
TLC
= Latitude
COF
- y

(
1
3
)
(15)
(
1
4
)
(16)
Page 29 of 110


4.5.3 Ocean Bottom Deformation
An initial profile of tsunami source is assumed to be the same as a deformation of ocean bottom
due to earthquake when the wavelength of the ocean bottom is much larger than the water depth
(Kajiura, 1963). Elastic theory (Okada, 1985) is used to calculate the static deformation of the
ocean bottom due to fault motion (Figure 24).



Figure 24. The deformation area of the source point at COF 96.5
0
E and 1
0
N in longitude
and latitude (green star), respectively with M
w
8.5 and 0 km. Green circle is TLC. Blue
and red contours represented as subsidence and uplift of the sea bottom deformation,
respectively with 0.1 m of contour interval.


Page 30 of 110


In this study, single segment is applied to all the source points. Fault parameters model
(Table 5) is used for each source point at different magnitudes and depths. For the case in which
depth of TLC has negative value, the depth is forced to be 10.000 km considering that tsunami
source must be located at or beneath the ocean bottom but not in the upper part of the ocean
bottom. Other parameters such as slip amount, length and width are determined by Scaling Law
theory. These fault parameters are used as the initial condition for model source to calculate
tsunami propagation over the ocean.

Table 5. Fault parameters for selected source point at different magnitudes and depths.
M
w
DCF
(km)
Depth of
TLC
(km) Slip (cm)
Length
(km)
Width
(km)
Strike
(deg)
Dip
(deg)
Rake
(deg)
6.5 0 10.000* 70.8 22.4 11.2 0 45 90
6.5 20 15.238 70.8 22.4 11.2 0 45 90
6.5 40 35.238 70.8 22.4 11.2 0 45 90
6.5 60 55.238 70.8 22.4 11.2 0 45 90
7.0 0 10.000* 125.9 39.8 19.9 0 45 90
7.0 20 11.531 125.9 39.8 19.9 0 45 90
7.0 40 31.531 125.9 39.8 19.9 0 45 90
7.0 60 51.531 125.9 39.8 19.9 0 45 90
7.5 0 10.000* 223.9 70.8 35.4 0 45 90
7.5 20 10.000* 223.9 70.8 35.4 0 45 90
7.5 40 24.94 223.9 70.8 35.4 0 45 90
7.5 60 44.94 223.9 70.8 35.4 0 45 90
8.0 0 10.000* 398.1 125.9 62.9 0 45 90
8.0 20 10.000* 398.1 125.9 62.9 0 45 90
8.0 40 13.219 398.1 125.9 62.9 0 45 90
8.0 60 33.219 398.1 125.9 62.9 0 45 90
8.5 0 10.000* 707.9 223.9 111.9 0 45 90
8.5 20 10.000* 707.9 223.9 111.9 0 45 90
8.5 40 10.000* 707.9 223.9 111.9 0 45 90
8.5 60 12.377 707.9 223.9 111.9 0 45 90


Remark: * Depth of TLC has negative value and forced to be 10.000 km.

Strike angle (| ) is the angle measured counter-clock-wise from the local north to the
strike direction. Dip angle () is the angle between the mean earth surface and the fault plane,
measured from the mean earth surface down to the fault plane. Rake () describes to which
direction the hanging block moves relative to the foot block on the fault plane.



Page 31 of 110


4.6 Inverse Tsunami Travel Times

Tsunami Travel Times (TTT) software was developed by Dr. Paul Wessel and is distributed as a
commercial product in Geoware online. This software works on several platforms including
Windows, Linux, UNIX and Mac OS. In this study, TTT software package version 1.12 is used
which was provided free of charge by NOAAs National Geophysical Data Center as the World
Data Center (WDC) for Solid Earth Geophysics-Tsunamis collaborated with the IOCs
International Tsunami Information Centre (ITIC) which runs on Cygwin in Windows platform.
Basically, TTT is able to calculate tsunami travel times on all of the grid points from the supplied
bathymetric data using Huygens principle on a geographic latitude and longitude grid (e.g. Fujii,
2008). Since the original GEBCO data (1 arc minute) has positive values on land grid and the
grid format is NetCDF, a conversion into i2 format is needed for TTT calculations. Output grid
file suffix in .b and written in unit of minute. So, the contour interval is in minute.
In TUNAMI-F1 and TUNAMI-N2, the tsunami travel times are inversely calculated from
the coastal point to tsunami source (Figure 25) using GMT options. The purpose is to calculate
the minimum predicted value of tsunami travel time from coastal point to the grid points of
tsunami source area (equivalent to sea bottom deformation area). The grid points of those within
the tsunami source, and have absolute value as shown in Table 6 are considered as initial points.
The minimum value of tsunami travel time from coastal point to the grid point of tsunami source
area is selected as tsunami arrival time. Since the same method is not applicable to calculate the
tsunami travel times from coastal points to the tsunami source area due to the different output file
format, thus, in NAMI-DANCE, the tsunami travel time is calculated from the coastal point to
the center of fault of the tsunami source point (Figure 26). In this case, for the same source point
the tsunami travel time is the same because this method doesnt consider the effects of
magnitude and sea bottom deformation area. The tsunami arrival time which is obtained by the
inversion of tsunami travel times are then stored into database as tsunami arrival time at coastal
points.

Table 6: The absolute value of the tsunami source area against magnitude
Magnitude (M
w
) Tsunami source
6.5 > 0.01 m
7.0 > 0.02 m
7.5 > 0.03 m
8.0 > 0.05 m
8.5 > 0.1 m


Page 32 of 110



Figure 25. Inverse tsunami travel time diagram from coastal point (green triangle) to
nearest tsunami source area point which has absolute value greater than 0.1 m (red dots)
with contour interval of 10 min. Green star is the COF. The value of 229 is the tsunami
arrival time in minutes.



Page 33 of 110




Figure 26. Inverse tsunami travel time diagram from the coastal point (green triangle) to
the center of fault (green star) of the tsunami source point with contour interval of 10
min. The value of 244 is the tsunami arrival time in minutes.









Page 34 of 110


4.7 Tsunami Numerical Simulation Models

We used a benchmarked and validated open ocean propagation model and bathymetry according
to the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and
Mitigation System (ICG/IOTWS) Working Group 4 (WG4) recommendations (IOC, 2008). This
study used three different types of numerical simulation models namely TUNAMI-F1,
TUNAMI-N2 and NAMI-DANCE version 4.7 to calculate the tsunami propagation over the
ocean. For the propagation of the tsunamis over the large ocean, TUNAMI-F1 and NAMI-
DANCE version 4.7 are used to calculate the tsunami propagation in spherical coordinates
system over the Indian Ocean, Pacific Ocean, Andaman Sea, Philippines Sea, South China Sea,
Banda Sea, Sulu Sea and Celebes Sea. However, for near field tsunamis, TUNAMI-N2 and
NAMI-DANCE version 4.7 are used to calculate the tsunami propagation in the Cartesian
coordinate system over the Sulu Sea and Celebes Sea.

4.7.1 Numerical Simulation by TUNAMI-F1
TUNAMI-F1 (Tohoku Universitys Numerical Analysis Model for Investigation of Far-field
tsunamis, No.1) is applied to linear theory for tsunami propagation over the ocean in the
spherical coordinates system. In this study, the crustal deformation of the ocean bottom is
followed the elastic theory of Okada, 1985 and tsunami propagation over the oceans using
tunami code which was modified by Associate Prof. Shunichi Koshimura from Disaster Control
Research Center, Graduate School of Engineering, Tohoku University of Japan. Tsunami
propagation initiated at each fault is calculated based on governing equation (5) were
numerically solved by the leap-frog finite-difference scheme (Koshimura, 2008).
The dimension of calculation area for tsunami propagation over the Indian Ocean and
Andaman Sea are 1681 and 961 grid points for longitude and latitude, respectively. The area of
the numerical calculations covers the region from 10
0
E to 150
0
E in longitude and from 50
0
S to
30
0
N in latitude. The temporal interval (t) is 6 s for computation which was less than Courant
Friedrics Lewy (CFL) stability condition determined by equation (13). The value of temporal
interval (t) is 20.3 s when spatial grid size (Ax) is 9250 m, gravity acceleration (g) is 9.8 m/s
2

and the greatest sea depth in the calculated area (
max
h ) is 10559 m.
For the other regions such as Pacific Ocean, Philippines Sea, South China Sea, Banda
Sea, Sulu Sea and Celebes Sea that cover the region from 90
0
E to 150
0
E in longitude and 20
0
S to
40
0
N in latitude, the dimension of calculation area is 1801 grid points for longitude and latitude.
The temporal interval is 6 s for computation. The value of temporal interval (t) is 8.1 s when
spatial grid size (Ax) is 3700 m, gravity acceleration (g) is 9.8 m/s
2
and the greatest sea depth in
the calculated area (
max
h ) is 10563 m. The calculation time of numerical simulation is set to 24
hours considering that the arrival of tsunami and time of maximum tsunami height can reach at
coastal points within this period.

4.7.2 Numerical Simulation by TUNAMI-N2
TUNAMI-N2 (Tohoku Universitys Numerical Analysis Model for Investigation of Near-field
tsunamis, No.2) is applied to shallow water theory for propagation over the ocean in the
Cartesian coordinates system. In this study, the crustal deformation of the ocean bottom is
following the elastic theory of Okada, 1985 and using tunami code, which was modified by
Page 35 of 110


Shunichi Koshimura from Disaster Control Research Center School of Engineering, Tohoku
University of Japan, to calculate the tsunami propagation over the Cartesian coordinate system.
Tsunami propagation initiated at each fault is calculated based on governing equation (1) that
were numerically solved by the leap-frog finite-difference scheme (Koshimura, 2008).
The dimension of calculation area for tsunami propagation over the Sulu Sea is 841x841
grid points for longitude and latitude that covers the region from 114
0
E to 128
0
E in longitude and
from 2
0
N to 16
0
N in latitude. The temporal interval is 3 s, and spatial grid size is 1 arc-min
approximately to 1850 m.
For Celebes Sea, the dimension of calculation area is 901x901 grids points for longitude
and latitude that covers the region from 114
0
E to 129
0
E in longitude and from 3
0
S to 12
0
N in
latitude. The temporal interval is 3 s and spatial grid size is 1 arc-min (approximately to 1850 m).
The calculation time of numerical simulation is 12 hours considering that the arrival of
tsunami and the time of maximum tsunami height can reach at the coastal points is within this
period.

4.7.3 Numerical Simulation by NAMI-DANCE
This code named NAMI-DANCE version 4.7 is initially prepared for the use of Astronautic
Technology Sdn. Bhd. (ATSB) Malaysia according to the contract with Middle East Technical
University or METU in April 2006. The computational tool of NAMI-DANCE was developed
using C++ programming language by Profs Andrey Zatysev, Ahmet Yalciner, Anton Chernov,
Efim Pelinovsky and Andrey Kurkin (METU, 2008). This model simulates and animates tsunami
generation and propagation in a given arbitrary shaped bathymetry with linear for nonlinear form
of shallow water equation with Cartesian or spherical coordinates. The module of co-seismic
tsunami generation uses Okada, 1985. The module for tsunami propagation was solved using
nonlinear shallow water equation which was given in Shuto, Goto, C., Imamura, F., 1990 and
Goto, C., and Ogawa, Y., 1991 used in TUNAMI-N2 which had been authored by Profs. Shuto
and Imamura and distributed under the support of UNESCO TIME Project in 1990. In addition
to necessary tsunami parameters, this model also computes the distribution of current velocities
and direction at the selected time intervals, relative damage levels according to drag and impact
forces and prepares 3D plots of sea state at selected time intervals from different camera and
light positions and animates the tsunami propagation from source to target.
In NAMI-DANCE, propagation of tsunami over the spherical and Cartesian coordinates
systems are follows TUNAMI-F1 and TUNAMI-N2, respectively.

4.7.4 Validation Model by TUNAMI-F1 in Spherical Coordinates System
The validation model of TUNAMI-F1 for propagation tsunami in the spherical coordinate
systems is validated against Bengkulu Tsunami on 12 Sep 2007 (3.78S, 100.99E, Magnitude
8.5, depth 24.4 km at 11:11:15 GMT according to CMT). We assumed that the tsunami source is
based on the mainshock by Harvard Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) Project which is strike =
328
0
, dip angle = 9
0
and slip angle = 114
0
. Using the scaling law (Tatehara, 1997) the fault size is
223.9 km x 111.9 km and the average slip on the fault is 7.079 m. The top left corner is 4.903S,
101.103E at depth 1.335 km. As the initial condition for tsunami, static deformation of the sea
bottom is calculated for a rectangular fault model (Okada, 1985) using the source model (Figure
27). The used bathymetry data is GEBCO resample to 2 arc-minutes and temporal interval is 3 s.
Page 36 of 110


Tsunami propagation over the ocean was calculated by using the linear theory equations were
numerically solved by using a finite difference scheme (Koshimura, 2008). We selected Padang
tide gauge station (1S, 100.3666E) as outpoint point in numerical simulation (GLOSS, 2009).
We compared the predicted arrival times and tsunami heights at Padang tide gauge station with
observation record obtained from the PTWC as describes in Table 7.


Figure 27. Deformation area of the Bengkulu Tsunami based on Harvard CMT. Beach
ball is the focal mechanism. Blue star is center of fault (COF) and green circle is top left
corner (TLC). Blue and red contours represented as subsidence and uplift of the sea
bottom deformation, respectively with 0.1 m of contour interval.

Table 7: Padang tide gauge observation record from PTWC earthquake bulletin.
Arrival time Tsunami Height
1221Z 0.35m
1306Z 0.56m
1348Z 0.98m
Page 37 of 110


4.7.5 Validation Model by NAMI-DANCE in Spherical Coordinates System
Using the linear theory for propagation tsunami in the spherical coordinates system, NAMI-
DANCE version 4.7 also validates against Bengkulu Tsunami as mentioned in section 4.7.4. The
earthquake parameters are selected similar with TUNAMI-F1 numerical model. The initial
condition of the sea bottom deformation is calculated for a rectangular fault model (Okada,
1985) using the source model (Figure 28). Bathymetry data 2 arc-minutes was resampled from
the original 1 arc-minute GEBCO. Tsunami propagation in the spherical coordinates system was
calculated without considering the Coriolis force and then using a finite difference scheme
numerically solved the nonlinear theory equations. We compared the predicted arrival times and
tsunami heights of tsunami at Padang tide gauge station with earthquake information bulletin
from the PTWC as mention in Table 7.



Figure 28. Tsunami source of the Bengkulu Earthquake (NAMI-DANCE Ver. 4.7).






Sumatra
Padang
Indian Ocean
Page 38 of 110


4.7.6 Validation Model by TUNAMI-N2 in Cartesian Coordinates System
The validation model of TUNAMI-N2 for propagation tsunami in the Cartesian coordinate
system is validating against Bengkulu Tsunami on 12 September 2007 (3.78S, 100.99E,
Magnitude 8.5, depth 24.4 km at 11:11:15 GMT according to CMT). We assumed that the
tsunami source is based on the mainshock by Harvard Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) Project
and scaling law, which is strike = 328
0
, dip angle = 9
0
and slip angle = 114
0
. The fault size is
223.9 km x 111.9 km. The top left corner is 4.903S, 101.103E at depth 1.335 km. Average slip
on the fault is 7.079 m. As the initial condition for tsunami, static deformation of the sea bottom
is calculated for a rectangular fault model (Okada, 1985) using the source model (Figure 29).
The bathymetry data used is GEBCO 1 arc-minutes (~ 1850 m) and temporal interval is 3 s for
computation. Tsunami propagation over the ocean was calculated by using non-linear theory
equations were numerically solved by using a finite difference scheme (Koshimura, 2008).
Padang tide gauge station (1S, 100.3666E, GLOSS) was selected as the outpoint point. The
predicted arrival times and tsunami heights at Padang tide gauge station is compared with the
observation record obtained from the PTWC as in Table 7.


Figure 29. Deformation area of the Bengkulu Tsunami with 0.1 m of contour interval.
Light blue star is center of fault (COF) and green circle is top left corner (TLC).
Page 39 of 110


4.7.7 Validation Model by NAMI-DANCE in Cartesian Coordinates System
Using the non-linear theory for propagation tsunami in the Cartesian coordinates system, NAMI-
DANCE version 4.7 also validates against 12 September 2007 Bengkulu Tsunami with similar
parameters used as mentioned in section 4.7.6. The initial condition of the sea bottom
deformation is calculated for a rectangular fault model (Okada, 1985) using the source model
(Figure 30). Original GEBCO data with spatial grid size 1 arc-minutes (~1850 m) is used.
Tsunami propagation in the Cartesian coordinates system was calculated considering the bottom
friction term. We used natural channels in good condition for bottom friction term as 0.025, and
then using a finite difference scheme numerically solved the non-linear shallow water equations.
The arrival times and tsunami heights of tsunami at Padang tide gauge station are then compared
with observation record obtained from the PTWC.




Figure 30. Ocean bottom deformation of the Bengkulu Tsunami (NAMI-DANCE Ver. 4.7).
.




Sumatra
Padang
Indian Ocean
Page 40 of 110


4.8 Tsunami Database

Tsunami databases at the Malaysian National Tsunami Early Warning Centre are constructed by
MySQL database. MySQL database is the worlds most popular open source database because of
its fast performance, high reliability, ease of use, and dramatic coast savings. MySQL database is
an open source relational database management system (RDBMS) based on Structured Query
Language (SQL), and works on many different system platforms including Linux, UNIX,
Windows and other platforms.
The establishment of the reliable and robust tsunami database needs a selection database
and systems. This study has adopted a system for developing web application to construct a
tsunami database and applied for retrieving. The definition of web application is an application
that runs entirely from web browser (such as windows internet explorer and firefox) over a
network such as Internet or an intranet. The architecture of tsunami database consists of three
main parts namely web server, middleware programming language and relational database
(Figure 31).
In this study, we used Apache 2.2.11 as web server (http://www.apache.org) and MySQL
5.1.34 for relational database (http://www.mysql.com) works on Linux platform. For middleware
scripting language was done by PHP 5.2.9 (http://www.php.net) to connect the web server with
relational tsunami database. This software is freely downloaded from the Internet because was
distributed as GNU General Public License.


Figure 31. Architecture of web applications (Greenspan, 2001)




Page 41 of 110


4.8.1 Construction of Tsunami Database
The primary step to construct a database is to identify the architecture. Each table consist a set of
primary key as a unique identifier. This unique value cannot be NULL and the value remains the
same with other table for relationship. A relationship between the two tables mainly applied to
this study is one-to-many.
In this study, the tsunami database consist more than 30,000 tables, out of which one
table for FP and HYP each, and remaining tables for simulation results. The architecture and
relationship between tables are shown in Figure 32. FP table contains the number of forecast
points as a primary key, longitude, latitude, depth, name of coastal points, block name
(Appendix-1) and country of coastal area. HYP table contains parameter information on case
name as a primary key, longitude, latitude, magnitude, depth, strike, dip, rake, length, width and
slip. Each table in simulation result contains the number of forecast points as a primary key, case
name, arrival time of tsunami and maximum height of tsunami at coastal points. Several
temporary tables also had been constructed for retrieving purpose.


Figure 32. Architecture of tsunami database. Blue star () is primary key for each table.




Simulation table
------------------
------------------
----------
NO
(Identifier
case)
CASE_NAME
(Identifier
case)
ARRIVAL
(Arrival time
of tsunami
at coastal
point)
MAX_HEIGHT
(Maximum
tsunami
height at
coastal point)
MAX_TIME
(Time
maximum
tsunami
height at

------------------
------------------
----------
NO
(Identifier
case)

CASE_NAME
(Identifier
case)
ARRIVAL
(Arrival time
of tsunami
at
coastal point)

MAX_HEIGHT
(Maximum
tsunami
height at
coastal point)
MAX_TIME
(Time
FP table
NO (Identifier case)
LON (Longitude of coastal point)
LAT (Latitude of coastal point)
DEPTH (Bathymetry depth of coastal point)
NAME (Name of coastal point)
BLOCK (Block of coastal name)
COUNTRY (Country of coastal name)
HYP table
CASENAME (Identifier case)
LON (Longitude of the earthquake)
LAT (Latitude of the earthquake)
MAG (Magnitude of the earthquake)
DEPTH (Depth of the earthquake)
STRIKE (Strike of the earthquake fault)
DIP (Dip of the earthquake fault)
RAKE (Rake of the earthquake fault)
LENGTH (Length of the earthquake fault)
WIDTH (Width of the earthquake fault)
SLIP (Slip amount of the earthquake fault)
Simulation table
NO (Identifier case)
CASENAME (Identifier case)
ARRIVAL (Arrival time of tsunami at
coastal point)
MAX (Maximum tsunami height at
coastal point)



Page 42 of 110


4.8.2 SQL Commands
The SQL commands were used in this study based on the MySQL 5.1 reference manual which
available on Internet at http://dev.mysql.com/doc/refman/5.1/en. The basic commands of SQL to
create a tsunami database with MySQL such as create database, create table for FP, HYP and
simulation and load data local infile are described as per below. The describe tables of skema,
FP and HYP are shown in Appendix-2.

Create a database in MySQL called tunami-f1
CREATE DATABASE tunami-f1;

Create a forecast point table called FP
CREATE TABLE FP (
No smallint(6) NOT NULL default 0 PRIMARY KEY,
Lon float NOT NULL default 0,
Lat float NOT NULL default 0,
Depth float NOT NULL default 0,
Name varchar(50),
Block varchar(50),
Country varchar(100)
);

Create a hypocenter table called HYP
CREATE TABLE HYP (
Casename varchar(60),
Lon float NOT NULL default 0,
Lat float NOT NULL default 0,
Mag float NOT NULL default 0,
Depth float NOT NULL default 0,
Strike float NOT NULL default 0,
Dip float NOT NULL default 0,
Rake float NOT NULL default 0,
Length float NOT NULL default 0,
Width float NOT NULL default 0,
Slip float NOT NULL default 0
);

Create a simulation table called skema
CREATE TABLE skema (
No smallint(6) NOT NULL default 0 PRIMARY KEY,
Casename varchar(60) NOT NULL,
Arrival float NOT NULL default 0,
Max float NOT NULL default 0
);

Insert simulated data from local drive into table called S1_A_M65_D0 which located on server
LOAD DATA LOCAL INFILE S1_A_M65_D0.txt' into table S1_A_M65_D0 lines terminated by
'\r\n;



Page 43 of 110


4.9 Retrieving from Tsunami Database

The important step to perform database retrieving is how quickly and precisely to get the tsunami
heights and arrival times from the database. There are several methods to obtain tsunami
estimation results from the database such as simple method, interpolation method, extrapolation
method and maximum risk method. These methods are performed by combining PHP scripting
language and SQL command syntax to retrieve for issuing tsunami information and warning
bulletins.

4.9.1 Simple Method
Simple method is performing a search to the nearest data point from the determined hypocenter.
This method is the easiest way to estimate the heights and arrival times of tsunami from the
database. The tsunami height and arrival time of tsunami are selected at the nearest element of
data point from the corresponding determined hypocenter as illustration in Figure 33. Table 8 is
describes the nearest data point of magnitude and depth for database selection.


Figure 33. The simple method seeking the nearest data point from the determined
hypocenter.

Table 8. The nearest selected data point for magnitude and depth of the determined hypocenter
Magnitude Data point selection Depth Data point selection
M
w
6.5-6.7 M
w
6.5 0-10 km 0 km
M
w
6.8-7.2 M
w
7.0 11-30 km 20 km
M
w
7.3-7.7 M
w
7.5 31-50 km 40 km
M
w
7.8-8.2 M
w
8.0 51-70 km 60 km
M
w
8.3-8.5 M
w
8.5 >70 km and <100 km 60 km







S
6
S
1
0
S
7
x
1

x
2

Determined
hypocenter
Data point
Page 44 of 110


4.9.2 Interpolation Method
Interpolation method is the computation of points or values between ones that are known or
tabulated using the surrounding points or values (http://mathworld.wolfram.com). Input data is
recently determined hypocenter parameters such as longitude, latitude, depth and magnitude.
Each four corners of the data point consist of values of longitude, latitude, depth and two
magnitudes. Our definition of data point is consists of tsunami heights and arrival times. The
data point at each nearest corner with determined hypocenter is retrieved from database. If the
data point consists variant of magnitude and depth, the recently determined hypocenter is
computed by using horizontal and vertical interpolation methods based on the nearest eight (8)
corners in the surrounding (Figure 34).



Figure 34. The interpolation data point of the determined hypocenter in 3 dimensions view.

The horizontal interpolation method of epicenter location is calculated by linear method
and considered the nearest 4 corners data point in surrounding the determined hypocenter (Figure
35).






Latitude
x
2

Longitude
Interpolated data point Data point Determined Hypocenter
Magnitude or Depth
Page 45 of 110




Figure 35. Horizontal interpolation method of epicenter location (e.g. Sugeng, 2007 and
Chai, 2008)

The epicenter location interpolation can be determined by the following equations;
Point (1) =
2 1
1
2 1
2
2 1
x x
x
S
x x
x
S
+
+
+

Point (2) =
2 1
1
2 1
2
3 4
x x
x
S
x x
x
S
+
+
+

Point (3) = Point (1)
2 1
2
y y
y
+
+ Point (2)
2 1
1
y y
y
+

Here, points S1, S2, S3 and S4 are the nearest data point surrounding the determined hypocenter,
Point (1) is interpolated grid point between S1 and S2, Point (2) is interpolated grid point
between S3 and S4, Point (3) is epicenter input of determined hypocenter, y
1
and y
2
are the
distance of lower and upper latitude from epicenter to interpolated point and x
1
and x
2
are the
distance of lower and upper longitude from interpolated point to closest data point.
The vertical interpolation method of magnitude and depth are considered the nearest 4
elements, which has nearest distance to the determined hypocenter. Each data point consists of
two magnitudes and one depth or equivalent to 8 cases.
The coefficients of magnitude (M
C
) and depth (D
C
) interpolation are calculated by a
logarithm method based on the following equations (Figure 36):

S
6
S
1
1
S
1
0
S
7
y
1

y
2

S1 S2
S3 S4
1
2
3
Latitude
x
1
x
2
y
2
y
1

(11)
2
1
5
)
Longitude
(17)
Page 46 of 110


2 1
2 1
2 1
1
10 1
10 1
d d
d d
d d
d d
C
D

= ,
1 2
1 2
1 2
2
10 1
10 1
m m
m m
m m
m m
C
M

=
Point (1) = ) 1 (
2 1 C C
M A M A +
Point (2) = ) 1 (
2 1 C C
M B M B +
Point (3) = Point (1)
C
D + Point (2) ) 1 (
C
D
Here, point A
1
, A
2
, B
1
and B
2
are the data point consisting of depth and magnitude which has the
nearest distance to the determined hypocenter, Point (1) is interpolated grid point between A
1
and
A
2
, Point (2) is interpolated grid point between B
1
and B
2
, Point (3) is interpolated grid point of
magnitude and depth, d
1
and d
2
are lower and upper of depth and m
1
and m
2
are lower and upper
of magnitude.


Figure 36. Vertical interpolation method of magnitude and depth










(
1
6
)
(
1
7
)
(18)
S
6
S
1
0
S
7
y
1

y
2

B
1
B
2
A
2
A
1

2
1
Depth
m
1 m
2
d
2
d
1
m

d
3
Magnitude
Page 47 of 110


4.9.3 Extrapolation Method
The extrapolation method is performed to determine the non-existing data point at lower and
upper magnitude of the determined hypocenter or when there is no surrounding data point
(Figure 37).

Figure 37. The extrapolation method of magnitude (e.g. Chai, 2008).
The coefficients of upper and lower magnitude are described by the following equations:
( )
2
10
2
log
3 . 0
10
M M
B
U Co

=
( )
2
10
1
log
3 . 0
10
M M
A
L Co

=
Here, Co(U) and Co(L) are corresponding to coefficient values of upper and lower magnitude,
M
A
and M
B
are the lower and upper magnitude of determined magnitude and M
1
and M
2
are the
lower and upper magnitude of data point which is the closest with determined magnitude.
In tsunami database, only the coefficient value of upper magnitude is being taken into
account for searching method. However, the coefficient value of lower magnitude is very rarely
used in this study by the assumption that an earthquake with a magnitude lower than 6.5 doesnt
generate a tsunami. In order to get the database output for tsunami heights, we multiply the data
point of the nearest element of depth with coefficient value of the upper magnitude (M
w
8.5). The
tsunami arrival times are selected at the fastest time.















Magnitude
M
2
M
1

M
A


M
B


(
1
8
)
(19)
Page 48 of 110


4.9.4 Maximum Risk Method
Maximum risk method is used to search the maximum data at each coastal point. The source
points of those located within the half length of the earthquakes fault distance (Figure 38) and
given the maximum data of tsunami at the coastal area will be chosen as database output (e.g.
Norhadizah, 2007 and Chai, 2008). The length (L) of the earthquake that is controlled by
moment magnitude (M
w
) is determined by using the Scaling Law as described in equation (8).
This method is easier than that of interpolation one. However, when the magnitude is bigger it
will cause the target area for searching to increase exponentially and longer time is needed to get
the output of the database.



Figure 38. Source points those located within the half length (L/2=111.9 km for M
w
8.5)
of the earthquakes fault distance and given the maximum data at the coastal area are
selected as database output.


Page 49 of 110


4.10 Earthquake and Tsunami Bulletins

Issuance of different types of bulletin for a particular region of the coastal areas can be divided
into 4 types (Table 9) and the flow chart for issuing bulletins is described in Figure A-3-1 in
Appendix-3. Earthquake Bulletin No. 1 contains earthquake information that is determined from
the seismic network and will be issued within less than 15 minutes for magnitude more than
M
w
5.9. If there is a possibility of tsunami generation, Tsunami Bulletin No. 2 will be issued as
soon as the earthquake tsunami potential has been analyzed based on the pre-computed scenarios
that is available in the database. The Tsunami Bulletin No. 3 will be issued upon confirmation of
water level data from buoys and tide gauges. This bulletin will be updated hourly until there are
no significant changes of the water level observed. If there are no significant changes of the
water level observed, Tsunami Bulletin No.4 will be issued for termination purpose.

Table 9. Type of bulletins
Bulletin Type Description of Bulletin
Earthquake Bulletin No. 1 Earthquake Information
Tsunami Bulletin No. 2 Estimation from pre-computed scenario database
Tsunami Bulletin No. 3 Observation water-level data from BPRs and tide gauges
Tsunami Bulletin No. 4 Termination of warning

Earthquake Bulletin No. 1 issuance generally depends on pre-determined criteria or
thresholds (Figure A-3-2 in Appendix-3). This bulletin contains earthquake parameters that can
be determined quickly from seismic waveform data such as origin time, coordinates, depth,
magnitude, occur on land or sea, region and tsunami evaluation. This bulletin will be issued
based on the earthquake strength as shown in Table 10. The moment magnitude or Mwp is more
accurate for large earthquakes than the common Richter magnitude (e.g. m
b
). It is recommended
that the moment magnitude to be used for initial M
wp
, based on the first arriving seismic P
waves.
Based on the Tsunami Warning Center Reference Guide, the definitions of tsunami potential
are described as per below;

Local tsunami: A local tsunami is one with destructive or life threatening effects usually limited
to within 100 kilometers (km) of the epicenter.

Regional Tsunami: A regional tsunami is one with destructive or life threatening effects usually
limited to within 1000 km of the epicenter.

Ocean-wide Tsunami: An ocean-wide tsunami is one with destructive or life threatening effects
that can extend across an entire ocean basin.




Page 50 of 110


Table 10. Product thresholds based on earthquake strength
Earthquake
Depth
Earthquake
Location
Earthquake
Magnitude
Mw or Mwp
Description of
tsunami potential
Bulletin Type
< 100 km Under or
very near
the sea
7.9 Potential for a
destructive ocean-
wide tsunami
Earthquake Bulletin No.1,
Tsunami Bulletin No. 2,
Tsunami Bulletin No. 3 and
Tsunami Bulletin No. 4
7.6 to 7.8 Potential for a
destructive
regional tsunami
Earthquake Bulletin No.1,
Tsunami Bulletin No. 2,
Tsunami Bulletin No. 3 and
Tsunami Bulletin No. 4
7.0 to 7.5 Potential for a
destructive local
tsunami
Earthquake Bulletin No.1,
Tsunami Bulletin No. 2,
Tsunami Bulletin No. 3 and
Tsunami Bulletin No. 4
6.5 to 7.0 Very small
potential for a
destructive local
tsunami
Earthquake Bulletin No.1,
Tsunami Bulletin No. 2,
Tsunami Bulletin No. 3 and
Tsunami Bulletin No. 4
6.0 to 6.4 No tsunami
potential
Earthquake Bulletin No.1
Any depth Inland 6.5 No tsunami
potential
Earthquake Bulletin No.1
100 km Inland or
sea
6.5 No tsunami
potential
Earthquake Bulletin No.1


4.10.1 Warning Category
The warning category is based on the premise that residents on the coastal areas which falls
within 60 minutes travel time from a tsunamigenic earthquake source need to be warned based
on the expected tsunami heights that are retrieved from pre-computed scenarios tsunami
database. Those coastal areas which fall outside the 60 minutes travel time from tsunami source
should be put under an alert or watch status and will be upgraded to a warning upon confirmation
of water level data from buoys and tide gauges. Table 11 is described the warning category to be
issue based on travel times and expected tsunami heights at the coastal areas.
According to the ICG/IOTWS Working Group 4 recommendations, the common
threshold for threat or no threat is 0.5 m at 1 m water depth (IOC, 2009). This threshold is used
as guidance for issuing tsunami threat or not threat at the coastal blocks.





Page 51 of 110


Table 11. Tsunami warning category (e.g. Srinivasa, K.T, 2009)
Scenario Database (Travel Times and Tsunami Heights)
Travel Times < 60 minutes Travel Times > 60 minutes
Expected Tsunami
Height
Bulletin Message Expected Tsunami
Height
Bulletin Message
> 2m Warning > 2m Alert
0.5 to 2 m Alert 0.5 to 2 m Watch
< 0.5 m Watch < 0.5 m Watch


4.10.2 Design of Earthquake Bulletin No. 1

############################################################################
MALAYSIAN NATIONAL TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING CENTRE (MNTEWC)
Malaysian Meteorological Department
Jalan Sultan, 46667, Petaling Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia
Tel:(+6-03)79550470, Fax:(+6-03)79584824/79550482
E-mail:gft@met.gov.my,Website:http://www.met.gov.my
############################################################################

Earthquake Bulletin Number : 1
Issued at : DDD, DD MMM YYYY, HH:MM:SS UTC

The MNTEWC has detected an earthquake with the following preliminary parameters :
Origin Time : DD MMM YYYY, HH:MM:SS UTC
Coordinates : xx.x (N or S) xxx.x (E or W)
Depth (km) : xx
Magnitude : x.x
Land/Sea : xxxx
Location : xxxxxxxxx
Remark : xxx km xxxxxxxxx of xxxxxx, xxxxxxx


Tsunami Evaluation : There is xxxxxxxxxxxx.

This will be the only bulletin for this event unless additional information becomes available.

Time of received by Tsunami Warning Focal Point (Feedback for evaluation) :

Any inquiry addressed to seismo@met.gov.my



Page 52 of 110


4.10.3 Design of Tsunami Bulletin No. 2

############################################################################
MALAYSIAN NATIONAL TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING CENTRE (MNTEWC)
Malaysian Meteorological Department
Jalan Sultan, 46667, Petaling Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia
Tel:(+6-03)79550470, Fax:(+6-03)79584824/79550482
E-mail:gft@met.gov.my,Website:http://www.met.gov.my
############################################################################

Tsunami Bulletin Number : 2
Issued at : DDD, DD MMM YYYY, HH:MM:SS UTC

This bulletin applied to areas within the Indian Ocean Region


TSUNAMI INFORMATION

The MNTEWC has detected an earthquake with the following revised parameters:
Origin Time : DD MMM YYYY, HH:MM:SS UTC
Coordinates : xx.x (N or S) xxx.x (E or W)
Depth (km) : xx
Magnitude : x.x
Land/Sea : xxxx
Location : xxxxxxxxx
Remark : xxx km xxxxxxxxx of xxxxxx, xxxxxxx


Estimated Tsunami Arrival Time and Tsunami Wave Amplitude


TSUNAMI WARNING

Coastal Location Country Arrive Time (UTC) Amplitude
Min Time Date (m)
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x



Page 53 of 110



TSUNAMI ALERT

Coastal Location Country Arrive Time (UTC) Amplitude
Min Time Date (m)
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x


TSUNAMI WATCH

Coastal Location Country Arrive Time (UTC) Amplitude
Min Time Date (m)
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x

This will be the final bulletin issued unless there are potential of tsunami generation changes by
re-evaluation of the earthquake parameters.

Page 54 of 110


4.10.4 Design of Tsunami Bulletin No. 3 (Upgrade or Downgrade)

############################################################################
MALAYSIAN NATIONAL TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING CENTRE (MNTEWC)
Malaysian Meteorological Department
Jalan Sultan, 46667, Petaling Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia
Tel:(+6-03)79550470, Fax:(+6-03)79584824/79550482
E-mail:gft@met.gov.my,Website:http://www.met.gov.my
############################################################################

Tsunami Bulletin Number : 3
Issued at : DDD, DD MMM YYYY, HH:MM:SS UTC


TSUNAMI INFORMATION

The MNTEWC has detected an earthquake with the following revised parameters:
Origin Time : DD MMM YYYY, HH:MM:SS UTC
Coordinates : xx.x (N or S) xxx.x (E or W)
Depth (km) : xx
Magnitude : x.x
Land/Sea : xxxx
Location : xxxxxxxxx
Remark : xxx km xxxxxxxxx of xxxxxx, xxxxxxx


TSUNAMI OBSERVATION REPORT

Measurement or Report of Tsunami Observations from Buoy and Tide Gauge Stations.

Tide Gauge/Buoy Lon Lat Arrival Time (UTC) Amplitude
Min Time Date (m)
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxx xxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxx xxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxx xxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxx xxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x


Bulletin will be issued hourly or sooner if conditions warrant. The tsunami warning will remain
in effect until further notice.




Page 55 of 110


4.10.5 Design of Tsunami Bulletin No. 4 (Cancellation of Warning)

############################################################################
MALAYSIAN NATIONAL TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING CENTRE (MNTEWC)
Malaysian Meteorological Department
Jalan Sultan, 46667, Petaling Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia
Tel:(+6-03)79550470, Fax:(+6-03)79584824/79550482
E-mail:gft@met.gov.my,Website:http://www.met.gov.my
############################################################################

Tsunami Bulletin Number : 4
Issued at : DDD, DD MMM YYYY, HH:MM:SS UTC

TSUNAMI INFORMATION
The MNTEWC has detected an earthquake with the following revised parameters:
Origin Time : DD MMM YYYY, HH:MM:SS UTC
Coordinates : xx.x (N or S) xxx.x (E or W)
Depth (km) : xx
Magnitude : x.x
Land/Sea : xxxx
Location : xxxxxxxxx
Remark : xxx km xxxxxxxxx of xxxxxx, xxxxxxx


TSUNAMI OBSERVATION REPORT

Measurement or Report of Tsunami Observations from Buoy and Tide Gauge Stations.

Tide Gauge/Buoy Lon Lat Arrival Time (UTC) Amplitude
Min Time Date (m)
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxx xxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxx xxx MM HH:MM:SS DD-MMM-YYYY x.x


TSUNAMI WARNING CANCELLATION

The tsunami warning issued by MNTEWC is NOW CANCELLED for
xxxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxxxx

This will be the final bulletin issued for this event unless additional information becomes
available.


Page 56 of 110


5. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION


5.1 Tsunami Heights

The tsunami heights at the coastal points which are obtained by the numerical model are checked
at different magnitudes, depths and sources. To check the numerical simulation results, we
compared the tsunami heights at the selected coastal points with different magnitudes (M
w
6.5,
7.0, 7.5, 8.0 and 8.5) and fixed depth (0 km). Therefore, comparison tsunami heights also made
with different depths (0, 20, 40 and 60 km) and fixed magnitude (M
w
8.0). As well as magnitude
and depth, the tsunami heights at the coastal points are also checked with different source points.

5.1.1 Different Magnitudes at Fixed Depth.
As magnitude is getting larger, the tsunami heights at the selected coastal points also gets higher
as shown in Figure 39 and Table A-4-1 in Appendix-4. Basically, tsunami heights are depending
on the uplift of the ocean bottom due to slip dislocation. Based on the Scaling Law (Tatehata,
1997), these implied that the M
w
8.5 (7.079 m) produces slip amount 10 times larger than M
w
6.5
(0.708 m) does. For example, tsunami height at North Andaman coastal point is much larger at
M
w
8.5 (9.61 m) than M
w
6.5 (0.12 m) does.


Figure 39. Tsunami heights at the selected coastal points by different magnitudes.

Page 57 of 110


5.1.2 Different Depths at Fixed Magnitude.
We analyzed the source point named as S15_D by selecting the magnitude of M
w
8.0 with
various depths (0, 20, 40 and 60 km). As well as magnitude, the tsunami heights at the output
points are shown slightly higher at the shallow source (e.g. 0 km) than at the deeper source (e.g.
60 km) (Figure 40 and Table A-4-2 in Appendix-4). Theoretically, the shallow source is able to
generate the uplift of ocean bottom higher than deeper source, and these results are totally
agreeable with the theory. This figure has shown that the trend line patterns are almost similar at
all the coastal points. Basically, the depth of top left corner for M
w
8.0 at depth of 20 km is
negative, so we forced to 10 km considering that tsunami source must be located at or beneath
ocean bottom but not in upper part of ocean bottom. The reason to force the depth of top left
corner to 10 km is to avoid instability occurs in numerical simulation model. Since the fault
parameters for M
w
8.0 at depths 0 and 20 km are the same, the tsunami heights at the coastal
points are also similar.



Figure 40. Tsunami heights at selected coastal points by different depths.




Page 58 of 110


5.1.3 Different Source Points.
We analyzed the source points of S15_A, S15_D, S18_A and S18_D by selecting only the
magnitude M
w
8.0 and depth 0 km, and the results are shown in Figure 41 and Table A-4-3 in
Appendix-4. This figure has shown that the tsunami heights at the coastal points are not well
defined. There is no relationship between tsunami height at the coastal points and distance of the
sources. For example coastal point of North Andaman is located at 202.3 and 120.5 km, and the
tsunami height is 0.85 and 0.78 m for S18_A and S18_D, respectively (Table 12). However, each
source has shown different behaviour of tsunami heights at the coastal points and this means that
the source points also play important roles in estimating the tsunami heights at the coastal points.


Figure 41. Tsunami heights at selected coastal points by different sources.

Table 12. Distance of coastal points from source points (Chris, 2009)
Coastal Point S15_A S15_D S18_A S18_D
North Andaman 168.5 km 46.33 km 202.3 km 120.5 km





Page 59 of 110


5.2 Tsunami Travel Times

The tsunami travel times at the coastal points are obtained by the TTT software is checked by
different magnitudes, depths and sources. To check the numerical simulation results, we
compared the tsunami travel times at the selected coastal points with different magnitudes
(M
w
6.5, 7.0, 7.5, 8.0 and 8.5) at the fixed depth (0 km). Therefore, comparison travel times also
made with different depths (0, 20, 40 and 60 km) at the fixed magnitude (M
w
8.0). As well as
magnitude and depth, the tsunami travel times are also being checked by different sources.

5.2.1 Different Magnitudes at Fixed Depth.
The tsunami travel times for source point namely as S15_D is analyzed at the different
magnitudes (M
w
6.5, 7.0, 7.5, 8.0 and 8.5). There are not many differences in tsunami travel times
at the coastal points with difference magnitudes are observed (Figure 42 and Table A-4-4 in
Appendix-4). However, the tsunami travel times at M
w
8.5 are slightly faster than M
w
6.5 does at
most of the coastal points. The inverse tsunami travel times which are obtained by TTT software
depend on the distance between the coastal point and grid points of the deformation area as
described in Table 6. For M
w
8.5, the deformation area is wider than at M
w
6.5. Therefore, the
distance between grid points of deformation area and coastal points is closer for M
w
8.5 than
M
w
6.5, and the tsunami travel times for M
w
8.5 is faster than for M
w
6.5.

Figure 42. Tsunami travel times at selected coastal points by different magnitudes.
Page 60 of 110


5.2.2 Different Depths at Fixed Magnitude.
We analyzed the tsunami travel times at different depths (0, 20, 40 and 60 km) within the same
magnitude (M
w
8.0) as shown in Figure 43 and Table A-4-5 in Appendix-4. The trend line
patterns of tsunami travel times are almost similar at all the coastal points. As well as magnitude,
the tsunami travel times at different depths are not much difference in arrival times which are
observed at all the coastal points. This implied that an earthquake depth with the same magnitude
gives a small variation in travel times.


Figure 43. Tsunami travel times at selected coastal points by different depths.











Page 61 of 110


5.2.3 Different Source Points.
We analyzed the source points of S15_A, S15_D, S18_A and S18_D by selecting only the
magnitude of M
w
8.0 and depth 0 km, and the results are shown in Figure 44 and Table A-4-6 in
Appendix-4. The trend line patterns of tsunami travel times are almost agreeable to each other at
all the coastal points. However, the tsunami travel times depend on the distance between sources
and outpoint points. The nearest distance has shown faster travel times and later in far distance
(Table 13). For example coastal point of North Andaman is located 46.33 and 202.3 km away,
and tsunami travel time is 00.0 and 73.8 min from the source points of S15_D and S18_A,
respectively.


Figure 44. Tsunami travel times at selected coastal points by different sources.

Table 13. Distances of North Andaman from sources and tsunami travel times
Source Point Distance (km) TTT (min)
S15_D 46.33 00.0
S18_D 120.5 53.9
S15_A 168.5 64.6
S18_A 202.3 73.8



Page 62 of 110


5.2.4 Comparison of Tsunami Arrival Times between TTT and Simulation Result.
The comparison of tsunami arrival times between TTT and numerical simulation results for
S15_D (M
w
8.0 and 0 km) is shown in Figure 45 and Table A-4-7 in Appendix-4. This figure
shows that the tsunami arrival times that was estimated by numerical simulation (red line) has
similar agreement with TTT (cyan line) in all the coastal points. The tsunami arrival time which
is obtained directly from the numerical simulation is slightly faster than TTT. Thus, tsunami
arrival times in the numerical simulation are calculated from the beginning of most edges of
deformation area to the coastal points. However, in TTT, the tsunami arrival times are inversely
calculated from coastal points to the grid points of deformation area, which has absolute value
more than 0.05 m. Therefore, the tsunami propagation over the distance between TTT and
numerical simulation lends a time difference of tsunami arrival at the coastal points. The time
difference refers to the propagation of tsunami between the grid points of deformation area,
which has an absolute value of more than 0.05 m and most edges of the deformation area. Since
the tsunami arrival times calculated by TTT are in good agreement with those obtained from
numerical simulation, TTT method can be applied to estimate the tsunami arrival times at the
coastal area (e.g. Netai, 2007).

Figure 45. Tsunami arrival times at selected coastal points were obtained directly from
numerical simulation and TTT software.


Simulation
Page 63 of 110


5.3 Application of Greens Law

The comparison of tsunami heights for source point (S15_D) at the coastal points are obtained
directly from numerical simulation and application of Greens Law at forecast point of 50 m
bathymetric contour depth as shown in Figure 46 and Table A-4-8 in Appendix-4. This figure
shows that the tsunami heights at the coastal points with application of Greens Law (cyan line)
has higher value compared to the results which are obtained directly from numerical simulation
(red line) at most of the coastal points, especially for the coastal points that located close to the
source point. Greens Law application has been validated in subsection of 5.4.1, and gave the
reliable tsunami heights at the coastal points. Therefore, the tsunami heights results which are
obtained directly by the numerical simulation are not appropriate for tsunami warning. If the
tsunami heights which are obtained directly from numerical simulation are being taken into
consideration for tsunami warning, the arrival of tsunami at the coastal points will be
underestimated. Its most applicable to use tsunami heights with application of Greens Law. The
5 arc-minute of bathymetry data is not reliable for estimating the tsunami heights at the coastal
points. The finer bathymetry data may be needed to calculate the tsunami heights near the coastal
areas.


Figure 46. Tsunami heights at selected coastal points were obtained directly from
numerical simulation and application of Greens Law.
Page 64 of 110


5.4 Validation Models

5.4.1 TUNAMI-F1 in Spherical Coordinates System
Numerical model of TUNAMI-F1 is validated against Bengkulu Tsunami on 12 September 2007
in terms of tsunami heights and tsunami arrival times. The maximum heights of simulated
tsunami indicate that the tsunami energy is concentrated to directions perpendicular to the strike
of fault (Figure 47). The maximum heights areas are concentrated in vicinity to epicenter (blue
star) and southwest coastlines of Southern Sumatra, Indonesia. The tsunami propagation
snapshots over the region are shown in Figure A-5-1 in Appendix-5.


Figure 47. Maximum tsunami heights of the Bengkulu Tsunami (Left). Tsunami
waveforms at Padang tide gauge station at 1 and 50 m water depth (Right).

According to the PTWC, the arrival time of tsunami at Padang tide gauge station is 43
min (11:54 UTC 12 September 2007). The tsunami travel time which was calculated by the
numerical simulation and TTT method are 39 min (11:50 UTC 12 September 2007) and 42 min
(11:53 UTC 12 September 2007), respectively. The inverse tsunami travel times are calculated
from coastal point (Padang) to the grid points of deformation area which has absolutely more
than 0.05 m (Figure 48). These reading were approximated with the observed one.
Due to low resolution of 2 arc-minute bathymetry data, the tsunami heights at the coastal
point are unreliable compared with observed one. Tsunami heights at the coastal point which
were directly obtained from the numerical simulation are underestimated. Thus, to get the
Page 65 of 110


reliable tsunami heights at the coastal point, Greens Law calculation is then applied.
Application of Greens Law has shown that the tsunami height at Padang tide gauge station is in
the acceptable value compared with the observed one (Table 14).



Figure 48. Inverse refraction diagram by TTT method from coastal point (Padang) to the
deformation area of tsunami source. The contour interval of tsunami travel times and
deformation area are 10 min and 0.1 m, respectively.

Table 14. Comparison of tsunami heights and arrival times at Padang tide gauge station.
PTWC (1 m) Padang (50 m) Padang (1 m)
Arrival
Time
(min)
Wave
Height
(m)
Arrival
Time
(min)
Wave
Height
(50m)
Wave
Height
GL (1m)
Arrival
Time
(min)
Wave
Height
(1m)
70 0.35 70 0.14 m 0.37 m 80 0.38 m
115 0.56 112 0.25 m 0.67 m 119 0.34 m
157 0.98 161 0.31 m 0.83 m 160 0.43 m
Page 66 of 110


5.4.2 NAMI-DANCE in Spherical Coordinates System
The numerical model of NAMI-DANCE version 4.7 has shown that the maximum tsunami
heights areas are concentrated in vicinity to epicenter and southwest coastlines of Southern
Sumatra, Indonesia (Figure 49). Tsunami propagation snapshots are shown in Figure A-5-2 in
Appendix-5.













Figure 49. Maximum tsunami heights of the Bengkulu Tsunami
(Left). Tsunami waveforms at Padang tide gauge station at 1
and 50 m water depth (Right).

The time arrival of tsunami at Padang tide gauge station is 40 min (11:51 UTC 12
September 2007) that is faster by 3 min compared with the observed one. However, in TTT
method the tsunami arrival time at Padang tide gauge station is 72 min (12:23 UTC 12
September 2007) that is 29 min later. The difference is due to the TTT method which calculated
inverse travel time from coastal point to the center of fault or epicentre (Figure 50).
Application of Greens Law has shown that the tsunami heights at coastal point are
overestimated compared with the observed one (Table 15). However, tsunami height which
obtained directly from simulation at 1 m looks more reliable than application of Greens Law.

Table 15. Comparison of tsunami heights and arrival times at Padang tide gauge station.
PTWC (1 m) Padang (50 m) Padang (1 m)
Arrival
Time
(min)
Wave
Height
(m)
Arrival
Time
(min)
Wave
Height
(50m)
Wave
Height
GL (1m)
Arrival
Time
(min)
Wave
Height
(1m)
70 0.35 83 0.06 m 0.17 m 79 0.38 m
115 0.56 115 0.51 m 1.42 m 109 0.68 m
157 0.98 171 0.65 m 1.81 m 164 0.41 m

Padang
Sumatra
Page 67 of 110


Current version of NAMI-DANCE is still under probation period, and we expected the
latest version 4.8 or more will be able to validate against the Bengkulu Tsunami.



Figure 50. Inverse refraction diagram by TTT method from coastal point (Padang) to the
center of fault (green star) of tsunami source. The contour interval of tsunami travel times
is 10 min.

5.4.3 TUNAMI-N2 in Cartesian Coordinate System
Numerical model of TUNAMI-N2 in Cartesian coordinate system also is also validated against
Bengkulu Tsunami on 12 September 2007. The maximum heights of simulated tsunami indicate
that the tsunami energy is concentrated to directions perpendicular to the strike of fault (Figure
51). Tsunami propagation snapshots over the region are shown in Figure A-5-3 in Appendix-5.
The maximum heights areas are concentrated in vicinity to epicenter (green star) and
southwest coastlines of Southern Sumatra, Indonesia. According to the PTWC, the arrival time
of tsunami at Padang tide gauge station is 43 min (11:54 UTC 12 September 2007). In numerical
simulation and TTT calculations the time arrival of tsunami are 40 min (11:51 UTC 12
Page 68 of 110


September 2007) and 43 min (11:54 UTC 12 September 2007), respectively. These reading were
approximately with the observed one.
The use of 1 arc-minute bathymetry data to estimate the tsunami heights at coastal point
is unreliable compared with observation. Tsunami heights which were directly obtained from
numerical simulation at the coastal point are underestimated. Thus, the application of Greens
Law is then applied to the tsunami height at forecast point (50 m) to estimate the reliable tsunami
heights (1 m). Application of Greens Law has shown that tsunami heights at the Padang tide
gauge station are in the range of acceptable value compared with the observed one (Table 16).



Figure 51. Maximum tsunami heights of the Bengkulu Tsunami (Left). Tsunami
waveforms at Padang tide gauge station at 1 and 50 m water depth (Right).

Table 16. Comparison of tsunami heights and arrival times at Padang tide gauge station.
PTWC (1 m) Padang (50 m) Padang (1 m)
Arrival
Time
(min)
Wave
Height
(m)
Arrival
Time
(min)
Wave
Height
(50m)
Wave
Height
GL (1m)
Arrival
Time
(min)
Wave
Height
(1m)
70 0.35 75 0.11 m 0.30 m 88 0.29 m
115 0.56 112 0.21 m 0.56 m 128 0.42 m
157 0.98 161 0.23 m 0.61 m 171 0.48 m

Page 69 of 110


5.4.4 NAMI-DANCE in Cartesian Coordinate System
The numerical model of NAMI-DANCE version 4.7 in Cartesian coordinate system has shown
that the maximum tsunami heights areas are concentrated in vicinity to epicenter and southwest
coastlines of Southern Sumatra, Indonesia (Figure 52). The tsunami propagation snapshots over
the region are shown in Figure A-5-4 in Appendix-5.
The time arrival of tsunami at Padang tide gauge station is 40 min (11:51 UTC 12
September 2007) that is faster by 3 min compared with the observation. However, in TTT the
tsunami arrival time at Padang tide gauge station is 72 min (12:23 UTC 12 September 2007).
The difference is due to the TTT method which was calculating inverse travel time from coastal
point to the center of fault or epicentre.
Application of Greens Law has shown that tsunami heights at coastal point are
overestimated compared with the observed one (Table 17). However, tsunami heights which are
obtained directly from the numerical simulation at 1 m looks more reliable than application of
Greens Law.




Figure 52. Maximum tsunami heights of the Bengkulu
Tsunami (Left). Tsunami waveforms at Padang tide gauge
station at 1 and 50 m water depth (Right).


Table 17. Comparison of tsunami heights and arrival times at Padang tide gauge station.
PTWC (1 m) Padang (50 m) Padang (1 m)
Arrival
Time
(min)
Wave
Height
(m)
Arrival
Time
(min)
Wave
Height
(50m)
Wave
Height
GL (1m)
Arrival
Time
(min)
Wave
Height
(1m)
70 0.35 83 0.07 m 0.07 m 78 0.37 m
115 0.56 115 0.53 m 1.46 m 109 0.69 m
157 0.98 170 0.66 m 1.82 m 164 0.44 m


Page 70 of 110


5.4.5 Comparison Waveforms at the Outpoint Points
Firstly, we compared the tsunami heights at 50 m water depth (left hand side of Figure 53) which
estimated by NAMI-DANCE 4.7 is slightly higher compared with other models at most of the
time. Waveform that is calculated by TUNAMI-N2 (green line) was slightly lower than
TUNAMI-F1 (blue line) because in the shallow water equations, the bottom friction effect and
non-linear term are taken into consideration. These terms might cause the waveform to become
slightly lower and delayed in arrival when compared with linear term. For 1 m water depth (right
hand side of Figure 53), the waveform that is calculated by NAMI-DANCE 4.7 is slightly higher
than other waveforms, and the first arrival of tsunami at Padang tide gauge station was uplifted.
However, the other models had shown that the first arrival of tsunami at the Padang tide gauge
station is subsidence, and this result also agreed with the one observed at the tide gauges. Since
the NAMI-DANCE version 4.7 cannot validate against the real tsunami event, perhaps the final
version of NAMI-DANCE version 5.0 (Multiple Nested Grid System) which will be available in
May 2010, and had been tested with real tsunami events, can validate the event.
The waveforms of those calculated by NAMI-DANCE 4.7 in spherical and Cartesian
coordinate systems using non-linear term equations are similar most of the time. The propagation
of tsunamis in small region will neglect the effect of earth spherical. This implied that for near
field tsunamis which are calculated by NAMI-DANCE 4.7, the waveform patterns are similar
both in spherical and Cartesian coordinate systems.



Figure 53. Comparison tsunami waveforms at 1 and 50 m water depth using TUNAMI-
F1 (blue line), TUNAMI-N2 (green line), NAMI-DANCE Version 4.7 in spherical
coordinates system (red line) and NAMI-DANCE Version 4.7 in Cartesian coordinate
system (amber line).








Page 71 of 110


5.5 Tsunami Database

The database outpoint can be retrieved from the data points by simple, interpolation,
extrapolation and maximum risk methods. In this study, we assumed that the real case scenario
of the determined hypocenter has earthquake parameters as described in Table 18. Figure 54 has
shown the epicenter location of the determined hypocenter (red star) in Northern Sumatra,
Indonesia, which is surrounded by the available data points.

Table 18. Assumption of the earthquake parameters
Parameters Value
Origin Time 2300Z (12 Jul 2009)
Longitude, Latitude 93.3
0
E, 4.3
0
N
Magnitude (M
w
) 8.3
Depth (km) 50


Figure 54. Epicenter location (red star) of the determined hypocenter.
Page 72 of 110


5.5.1 Simple Method
The tsunami heights and tsunami arrival times at the coastal area can be retrieved from tsunami
database by performing simple method. This method seeks data point of those located in the
nearest horizontal distance from the determined hypocenter. Therefore, the nearest elements of
magnitude and depth of the determined hypocenter are then selected from the closest data point
as database output. According to Figure 54, the nearest data point with the determined
hypocenter is S34_E. This data point is located 31.44 km away from the determined hypocenter.
For database output, the nearest elements of magnitude and depth of data point with the
determined hypocenter are M
w
8.5 and 40 km, respectively.

5.5.2 Interpolation Method
For interpolation method, the nearest 4 corners data point surrounding the determined hypocenter
in horizontal distance is calculated. The nearest 4 corners data points are S34_D, S34_E, S35_D
and S35_E. Thus, the vertical elements of the depth are 40 and 60 km and combining with M
w
8.0
and 8.5. Each of the 8 corners data point consists of 2 scenarios (e.g. M
w
8.0 and 8.5 at depth 40
km) and 16 scenarios in total. The coefficients value of magnitude and depth are 0.168 and
0.240, respectively. Each data point is calculated by vertical interpolation of magnitudes and
depths and lastly with horizontal interpolation for epicenter location.

5.5.3 Extrapolation Method
The results for magnitude of M
w
8.3 can be determined by simple and interpolation methods.
However, in this study, we would like to compare the results obtained with other methods. At
first, we search the nearest data points surrounding the determined hypocenter and apply simple
method. Tsunami arrival times are then selected at the nearest elements of magnitude and depth.
The nearest element with similar depth is as described in Table 16. Therefore, tsunami heights at
M
w
8.3 are estimated by multiplication of coefficient value (Co(U) =2.0) with tsunami heights at
M
w
8.0. This means that database output is twice than that of the M
w
8.0. On the other hand, if the
magnitude is added 0.3, tsunami heights will be twice.

5.5.4 Maximum Risk Method
To search the maximum risks data at each coastal point among the source points, the half length
of the fault is 88.9 km and was determined by Scaling Law. Thus, the source points of those
located within 88.9 km from the determined hypocenter are S33_D, S33_E, S34_D, S34_E,
S34_F, S35_D, S35_E, and S35_F (Figure 55). To avoid denser calculations in tsunami database,
each data point is determined by simple method. The combinations of maximum risk of tsunami
at the coastal area are selected as database output. Thus, tsunami heights and arrival times are
chosen at the maximum height and faster arrival, respectively.




Page 73 of 110




Figure 55. Source points of those located within the half length (88.9 km) of the
earthquakes fault distance.


5.6 Comparison of Database Output

We compared the database outputs of TUNAMI-F1 numerical model by using different
searching methods as mentioned in subsections 5.5.1 to 5.5.4 items of tsunami heights and
tsunami arrival times. We assumed that the determined hypocenter has earthquake parameters as
described in Table 16.





Page 74 of 110


5.6.1 Tsunami Heights
We analyze and compare the tsunami heights using different searching methods as shown in
Figure 56 and Figure A-6-1 in Appendix-6. This figure has shown that the trend lines pattern
almost well recognised at all the coastal points. The extrapolation method showed that the
database outputs are slightly lower than other searching methods but still in the range of
acceptable values. Thus, extrapolation method can be used to estimate the outputs for magnitude
of more than M
w
8.5. Basically, interpolation results should be slightly lower than simple method
because in database the outputs are chosen at M
w
8.5 and M
w
8.3 in simple and interpolation
methods, respectively. Maximum Risk method results have shown the highest among the others
because this method searches the maximum possible impact of tsunami at the coastal area within
the half length of the earthquake fault in distance.


Figure 56. Database outputs of tsunami heights using different searching methods






Page 75 of 110


5.6.2 Tsunami Arrival Times
We analyze and compare the tsunami arrival times using different searching methods as shown
in Figure 57 and Figure A-6-2 in Appendix-6. This figure has shown that the trend lines pattern
almost well fit at all the coastal points. However, there is a slight difference in time arrival of
tsunami at the coastal points. Tsunami arrival times of those obtained by simple and
extrapolation are the same because they are chosen at the same element of data point. On the
other hand, the time arrival of tsunami which is obtained by interpolation method is slightly later
than other searching methods. In maximum risk method, it has been shown that the arrival time
of tsunami was slightly faster because this method searches the possible minimum time travel
within the half length of the earthquake fault in distance.


Figure 57. Database outputs of tsunami arrival times using different searching methods







Page 76 of 110


5.7 Application of Searching Methods

To minimize time consumption due to searching available data points in tsunami database for
database outputs, we applied the retrieve method based on distance from the available data points
(Figure 58). If the distance of the determined hypocenter is less than 15.7 km in radius from the
nearest data point, then simple method is applied. Otherwise, interpolation method is then
applied if the distance is more than 15.7 km from the nearest data point.
The extrapolation method will be applied if the determined hypocenter with magnitude
more than 8.5 or no data point in surrounding is available. However, simple method must be
applied first to search the nearest element of depth parameter before applying extrapolation
method to get the database output.





Figure 58. Areas selection for searching methods in tsunami database.













S
6
S
1
0
S
7
S1 S2
S3 S4
Latitude
Longitude
15.7 km
Interpolation method
Simple method

Page 77 of 110


5.8 Web Application for Tsunami Database

Tsunami databases are retrieved by combination of PHP scripting language and SQL command
syntax. PHP scripting language chooses the most appropriate data point from database which
matches the real earthquake parameters. The appropriate data point from database is retrieved by
simple, interpolation or extrapolation methods as mentioned in Figure A-7-1 in Appendix-7.
These combinations also generate earthquake and tsunami bulletins.
For security purposes, only authorized users are allowed to log in into the Integrated
Database Management System (Figure A-7-2 in Appendix-7). Successful users then need to
enter the fault parameters which are determined by the processing system such as origin time,
latitude, longitude, magnitude and depth. These parameters are required as input data (Figure
59). The Search button will then automatically select the nearest elements of the real
earthquake as database output.




Figure 59. Web base interface of tsunami database.
Page 78 of 110


5.9 Scenario Case

We assumed that the determined hypocenter has earthquake parameters as described in Table 18.
For earthquake with magnitude more than 6.4, Earthquake Bulletin No. 1 will be issued within
15 minutes from the earthquake origin time. These parameters are determined by Antelope,
SeisComp3 or Early Bird processing systems, and required as input data into Integrated Database
Management System. In the web application tsunami database is then automatically searching
the best method to generate Tsunami Bulletin No. 2.

5.9.1 Earthquake Bulletin No. 1
This is the example of the Earthquake Bulletin No. 1 will be issued within 15 minutes from the
earthquake origin time by the MNTEWC.

############################################################################
MALAYSIAN NATIONAL TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING CENTRE (MNTEWC)
Malaysian Meteorological Department
Jalan Sultan, 46667, Petaling Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia
Tel:(+6-03)79550470, Fax:(+6-03)79584824/79550482
E-mail:gft@met.gov.my,Website:http://www.met.gov.my
############################################################################

Earthquake Bulletin Number : 1
Issued at : Sun, 12 Jul 2009, 23:10:00 UTC

The MNTEWC has detected an earthquake with the following preliminary parameters :
Origin Time : 12 July 2009, 23:00:00 UTC
Coordinates : 4.3N 93.3E
Depth (km) : 50
Magnitude : 8.3
Land/Sea : Sea
Location : Northern Sumatra
Remark : 259 km southwest of Banda Acheh, Indonesia

Tsunami Evaluation : There is potential for ocean wide tsunami

This will be the only bulletin for this event unless additional information becomes available.

Time of received by Tsunami Warning Focal Point (Feedback for evaluation) :

Any inquiry addressed to seismo@met.gov.my




Page 79 of 110


5.9.2 Tsunami Bulletin No. 2
This is the example of the Tsunami Bulletin No. 2 will be issued within 30 minutes from the
earthquake origin time by the MNTEWC.

############################################################################
MALAYSIAN NATIONAL TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING CENTRE (MNTEWC)
Malaysian Meteorological Department
Jalan Sultan, 46667, Petaling Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia
Tel:(+6-03)79550470, Fax:(+6-03)79584824/79550482
E-mail:gft@met.gov.my,Website:http://www.met.gov.my
############################################################################

Tsunami Bulletin Number : 2
Issued at : Sun, 12 Jul 2009, 23:20:00 UTC

This bulletin applied to areas within the Indian Ocean Region


TSUNAMI INFORMATION

The MNTEWC has detected an earthquake with the following revised parameters:
Origin Time : 12 July 2009, 23:00:00UTC
Coordinates : 4.2N 93.3E
Depth (km) : 30
Magnitude : 8.3
Land/Sea : Sea
Location : Northern Sumatra
Remark : 270 km southwest of Banda Acheh, Indonesia

Estimated Tsunami Arrival Time and Tsunami Wave Amplitude

TSUNAMI WARNING

Coastal Location Country Arrive Time (UTC) Amplitude
Min Time Date (m)
Banda Acheh Indonesia 36 23:55:59 12-07-2009 3.9
Great Nicobar India 46 00:06:00 13-07-2009 2.7


TSUNAMI ALERT

Coastal Location Country Arrive Time (UTC) Amplitude
Min Time Date (m)
Dondra Head Sri Lanka 125 01:25:01 13-07-2009 2.4
Page 80 of 110


TSUNAMI WATCH

Coastal Location Country Arrive Time (UTC) Amplitude
Min Time Date (m)
Little Andaman India 75 00:34:59 13-07-2009 1.4
Port Blair India 89 00:49:01 13-07-2009 1.5
Trincomalee Sri Lanka 118 01:18:00 13-07-2009 1.3
Phuket Thailand 121 01:21:00 13-07-2009 1.4
Padang Indonesia 136 01:36:00 13-07-2009 0.7
Colombo Sri Lanka 156 01:55:59 13-07-2009 1.1
North Andaman India 158 01:58:01 13-07-2009 1.0
Bengkulu Indonesia 161 02:01:10 13-07-2009 0.9
Chennai India 169 02:09:00 13-07-2009 1.8
Pyinkayaing Myanmar 174 02:13:59 13-07-2009 0.7
Gaaf Dhaal Maldives 185 02:25:01 13-07-2009 1.7
Chedura Island Myanmar 185 02:25:01 13-07-2009 0.8
Kakinada India 186 02:25:59 13-07-2009 1.7
Ko Phra Thong Thailand 188 02:28:01 13-07-2009 2.0
Datai Bay Malaysia 189 02:28:59 13-07-2009 1.1
Langkasuka Malaysia 197 02:37:01 13-07-2009 0.9
Trivandrum India 200 02:40:01 13-07-2009 0.7
Cilacap Indonesia 204 02:43:59 13-07-2009 0.4
Male Maldives 207 02:46:59 13-07-2009 1.4
Ko Tarutao Thailand 209 02:49:01 13-07-2009 0.9
Bandar Lampung Indonesia 217 02:57:00 13-07-2009 0.4
Sittwe Myanmar 219 02:58:59 13-07-2009 0.8
Pantai Cenang Malaysia 228 03:07:59 13-07-2009 1.1
Bali Indonesia 233 03:13:01 13-07-2009 0.3
Pantai Acheh Malaysia 236 03:16:01 13-07-2009 0.7
Pasir Panjang Malaysia 238 03:18:00 13-07-2009 0.5
Batu Ferringhi Malaysia 246 03:25:59 13-07-2009 0.6
Pantai Merdeka Malaysia 246 03:25:59 13-07-2009 0.7
Kuah Malaysia 247 03:27:00 13-07-2009 0.9
Teluk Kumbar Malaysia 255 03:34:59 13-07-2009 0.7
Yan Malaysia 263 03:43:01 13-07-2009 0.8
Kota Kuala Muda Malaysia 265 03:45:00 13-07-2009 0.7
Belawan Indonesia 266 03:46:01 13-07-2009 0.7
Kuala Perlis Malaysia 272 03:52:01 13-07-2009 1.1
Tanjung Piandang Malaysia 274 03:54:00 13-07-2009 0.7
Mangalore India 293 04:13:01 13-07-2009 0.5
Teluk Senangi Malaysia 299 04:19:01 13-07-2009 1.0
Kuala Muda Malaysia 300 04:19:59 13-07-2009 0.9
Pantai Remis Malaysia 309 04:28:59 13-07-2009 0.7
Mergui Myanmar 313 04:33:00 13-07-2009 0.7
Page 81 of 110


North West Cape Australia 315 04:34:59 13-07-2009 0.5
Nibong Tebal Malaysia 315 04:34:59 13-07-2009 0.7
Cape Inspiratio Australia 335 04:55:01 13-07-2009 0.6
Pangkor Malaysia 340 05:00:00 13-07-2009 0.8
Baleshwar India 372 05:31:59 13-07-2009 0.8
Grand Gaube Mauritius 385 05:45:00 13-07-2009 0.6
Perth Australia 394 05:54:00 13-07-2009 0.4
Augusta Australia 407 06:07:01 13-07-2009 0.5
Geraldtown Australia 411 06:10:59 13-07-2009 0.6
Salalah Oman 416 06:16:01 13-07-2009 0.8
Duqm Oman 417 06:16:59 13-07-2009 0.5
Cape Leveque Australia 421 06:21:00 13-07-2009 0.4
Jaffna Sri Lanka 425 06:25:01 13-07-2009 0.9
Kuala Selangor Malaysia 429 06:28:59 13-07-2009 0.4
Victoria Seychelles 431 06:31:01 13-07-2009 1.1
Muscat Oman 432 06:31:59 13-07-2009 0.3
Cape Guaro Somalia 432 06:31:59 13-07-2009 0.7
Hobyo Somalia 433 06:33:00 13-07-2009 1.1
Gulf of Kutch India 439 06:39:00 13-07-2009 0.4
Yangon Myanmar 440 06:40:01 13-07-2009 0.7
Gwadar Pakistan 443 06:43:01 13-07-2009 0.5
Karachi Pakistan 448 06:48:00 13-07-2009 0.4
Chittagong Bangladesh 451 06:51:00 13-07-2009 0.7
Gavater Iran 452 06:52:01 13-07-2009 0.6
Pulau_Ketam Malaysia 455 06:55:01 13-07-2009 0.3
Esperance Australia 463 07:03:00 13-07-2009 0.1
Antsiranana Madagascar 464 07:04:01 13-07-2009 1.2
Al Mukalia Yemen 467 07:07:01 13-07-2009 0.4
Manakara Madagascar 469 07:09:00 13-07-2009 0.8
Magadishu Somalia 470 07:10:01 13-07-2009 1.3
Toamasina Madagascar 472 07:12:00 13-07-2009 0.5
Bombay India 473 07:13:01 13-07-2009 0.4
Mamoudzou Moyatte 490 07:30:00 13-07-2009 0.5
Kismayo Somalia 501 07:40:59 13-07-2009 1.4
Lamu Kenya 507 07:46:59 13-07-2009 0.7
Aden Yemen 513 07:52:59 13-07-2009 0.2
Quiterajo Mozambique 530 08:10:01 13-07-2009 0.6
Mahajanga Madagascar 533 08:13:01 13-07-2009 0.4
Mombasa Kenya 534 08:13:59 13-07-2009 0.8
Matapatapa Tanzania 538 08:18:00 13-07-2009 0.9
Dares Salaam Tanzania 546 08:25:59 13-07-2009 0.9
Angoche Mozambique 548 08:28:01 13-07-2009 0.7
Toliara Madagascar 550 08:30:00 13-07-2009 0.3
Cap Ste Marie Madagascar 550 08:30:00 13-07-2009 0.5
Page 82 of 110


Djibouti Djibouti 553 08:33:00 13-07-2009 0.2
Eucla Motel Australia 621 09:40:59 13-07-2009 0.1
Kingston South Australia 625 09:45:00 13-07-2009 0.1
Prince Edward South Africa 640 10:00:00 13-07-2009 0.5
Hobart Australia 645 10:04:59 13-07-2009 0.1
DurbanSouth Africa 648 10:07:59 13-07-2009 0.5
Quelimane Mozambique 660 10:19:59 13-07-2009 0.3
Darwin Australia 680 10:40:01 13-07-2009 0.1
Port Elizaberth South Africa 694 10:54:00 13-07-2009 0.4
Maputo Mozambique 746 11:46:01 13-07-2009 0.5
Beira Mozambique 748 11:48:00 13-07-2009 0.2
Cape Town South Africa 796 12:36:00 13-07-2009 0.2

This will be the final bulletin issued unless there are potential of tsunami generation changes by
re-evaluation of the earthquake parameters.





























Page 83 of 110


5.9.3 Tsunami Bulletin No. 3
This is the only example of the Tsunami Bulletin No. 3 which issued with availabilities of data.

############################################################################
MALAYSIAN NATIONAL TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING CENTRE (MNTEWC)
Malaysian Meteorological Department
Jalan Sultan, 46667, Petaling Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia
Tel:(+6-03)79550470, Fax:(+6-03)79584824/79550482
E-mail:gft@met.gov.my,Website:http://www.met.gov.my
############################################################################

Tsunami Bulletin Number : 3
Issued at : Mon, 13 Jul 2009, 00:00:00UTC


TSUNAMI INFORMATION

The MNTEWC has detected an earthquake with the following revised parameters:
Origin Time : 12 July 2009, 23:00:00UTC
Coordinates : 4.2N 93.3E
Depth (km) : 30
Magnitude : 8.3
Land/Sea : Sea
Location : Northern Sumatra
Remark : 270 km southwest of Banda Acheh, Indonesia


TSUNAMI OBSERVATION REPORT

Measurement or Report of Tsunami Observations from Buoy and Tide Gauge Stations.


Tide Gauge/Buoy Lon Lat Arrival Time (UTC) Amplitude
Min Time Date (m)
Dart Indonesia 91.89E 0.06N 20 23:20:00 12-07-2009 2.3
Dart Nicobar 88.54E 8.90N 25 23:25:00 12-07-2009 2.0


Bulletin will be issued hourly or sooner if conditions warrant. The tsunami warning will remain
in effect until further notice.




Page 84 of 110


5.9.4 Tsunami Bulletin No. 4
This is the only example of the Tsunami Bulletin No. 4 for cancellation of warning.

############################################################################
MALAYSIAN NATIONAL TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING CENTRE (MNTEWC)
Malaysian Meteorological Department
Jalan Sultan, 46667, Petaling Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia
Tel:(+6-03)79550470, Fax:(+6-03)79584824/79550482
E-mail:gft@met.gov.my,Website:http://www.met.gov.my
############################################################################

Tsunami Bulletin Number : 4
Issued at : Mon, 13 Jul 2009, 04:00:00UTC


TSUNAMI INFORMATION

The MNTEWC has detected an earthquake with the following revised parameters:
Origin Time : 12 July 2009, 23:00:00UTC
Coordinates : 4.2N 93.3E
Depth (km) : 30
Magnitude : 8.3
Land/Sea : Sea
Location : Northern Sumatra
Remark : 270 km southwest of Banda Acheh, Indonesia

TSUNAMI OBSERVATION REPORT

Measurement or Report of Tsunami Observations from Buoy and Tide Gauge Stations.

Tide Gauge/Buoy Lon Lat Arrival Time (UTC) Amplitude
Min Time Date (m)
Dart Indonesia 91.89E 0.06N 240 03:00:00 13-07-2009 0.03
Dart Nicobar 88.54E 8.90N 240 03:00:00 13-07-2009 0.02


TSUNAMI WARNING CANCELLATION

The tsunami warning issued by MNTEWC is NOW CANCELLED for
INDONESIA
INDIA

This will be the final bulletin issued for this event unless additional information becomes
available.
Page 85 of 110


6. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS


Numerical simulation results are verified in terms of tsunami heights and tsunami arrival times at
the coastal points. Tsunami heights at the coastal points truly depends on the magnitude, depth
and distance from sources. As magnitude getting larger, depth shallower and distance with the
source closer tsunami heights becomes higher. As well as tsunami heights, tsunami arrival times
are faster with higher magnitude and closest in distance with source. However, earthquake depth
gives a small variation in travel times.
Comparison of tsunami travel times between the TTT and numerical simulation results
had shown a similar agreement. Thus, TTT method can be applied to estimate the tsunami arrival
times at the coastal area.
Greens Law application had been validated against Bengkulu Tsunami and gave reliable
tsunami heights at the coastal points. Tsunami heights of those obtained directly from numerical
simulations are unreliable, and not appropriate for tsunami warning. If tsunami heights obtained
directly from numerical simulation are being taken into consideration for tsunami warning, the
arrival of tsunami at the coastal points will be underestimated. The 1, 2 and 5 arc-minute of
bathymetry data is not reliable for estimating the tsunami heights at the coastal points. Thus,
finer bathymetry data is needed to calculate the tsunami heights near the coastal area.
Numerical models of TUNAMI-F1 and TUNAMI-N2 have been verified against
Bengkulu Tsunami in terms of tsunami heights at the coastal points with Greens Law
application and tsunami arrival times by TTT method. However, numerical model of NAMI-
DANCE version 4.7 is unable to validate against the Bengkulu Tsunami. Perhaps the latest
version of NAMI-DANCE will give a better approximation.
The tsunami databases are constructed using MySQL. This pre-computed tsunami
database includes more than 30,000 earthquake scenarios. Tsunami heights and arrival times are
retrieved from database by simple, interpolation, extrapolation and maximum risk methods.
These methods are performed by combination of PHP scripting language and SQL command
syntax to retrieving for issuing tsunami bulletins. If an earthquake occurs with a magnitude of
more than 5.9, the Earthquake Bulletin No. 1 will be issued within 15 minutes from the
earthquake origin time. For magnitude of more than 6.4, Tsunami Bulletin No. 2 will then be
issued as soon as the earthquake tsunami potential has been analyzed based on the pre-computed
scenarios tsunami database. Tsunami Bulletin No. 3 will then be issued upon confirmation of
water level data from buoys and tide gauges from local or international channels. This bulletin
will be updated hourly until there are no significant changes of water level observation data. If
there are no significant changes of water level observed, Tsunami Bulletin No.4 will then be
issued for termination purpose.
The warning category is based on the premise of the coastal areas which falls within 60
minutes travel time from the tsunamigenic earthquake source and the expected wave height is
more than 2 m retrieved from pre-computed scenarios tsunami database, need to be put under
warning. For expected tsunami height between 0.6 to 1.9 m and less than 0.5 m, the areas could
be put under an alert and watch status, respectively. Those coastal areas which fall outside the 60
minutes travel time from tsunami source could be put under an alert or watch status and
upgraded to a warning upon confirmation of water level data from buoys and tide gauges.
Page 86 of 110


FUTURE PLAN


As a part of our study in developing tsunami database at the Malaysian National Tsunami Early
Warning Centre, we hope these databases will be able to provide a reliable tsunami warning to
the nation and the neighbouring countries. We would like to extend our study in developing
tsunami inundation distance and maps for coastal communities along the coastlines to be
included in the tsunami database. Apart from that, we would like to put future consideration for
other tsunami sources generation such as volcano and submarine landslide. To fully utilize the
Malaysian deep ocean buoys and tide gauges, we would like to expand our study in real time
tsunami forecasting using data assimilation.



ACKNOWLEDGEMENT


We would like to express our gratitude to Dr. Yap Kong Seng (Director General of Malaysian
Meteorological Department) for helpful discussions, valuable comments, guidance and supports
during our study in MMD. Special thanks to Dr. Fujii Yushiro (Researcher of International
Institute of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering, Building Research Institute, Tsukuba,
Japan), Mr. Zaidi bin Zainal Abidin (Principal Assistant Director of Geophysics and Tsunami
Division), Ms. Zaty Aktar binti Mokhtar, Mr. Afiq Zhofri bin Abdul Razak, Ms. Zamuna binti
Zainal and Ms. Amzura binti Amran (Assistants Director of Geophysics and Tsunami Division).
Lastly, thanks to all MMD staff for kindly sharing experiences and knowledge.



















Page 87 of 110


APPENDICES

Appendix-1


Figure A-1-1. Coastal blocks for Peninsular Malaysia


Figure A-1-2. Coastal blocks for Sabah and Sarawak.
Page 88 of 110


Appendix-2



Figure A-2-1. Description tables of skema, FP and HYP from database.
Page 89 of 110


Appendix-3



















Scenario Database (Travel Times, Tsunami Height)
Travel Times < 60 min Travel Times > 60 min
Expected Tsunami
Height
Bulletin Message
Expected Tsunami
Height
Bulletin Message
>2m Warning >2m Alert
0.5 to 2 m Alert 0.5 to 2m Watch
< 0.5 m Watch <0.5m Watch
Earthquake
Seismic Network
(Origin Time,
Hypocenter, Magnitude)
Land/Ocean
Mag > 6.5
Depth < 100
km

Tsunami Information
-Earthquake information
-Tsunamigenic potential

Tsunami Information
-Earthquake information
-No tsunami potential
No
Land
Yes
Ocean
Yes Ocean
Bulletin No 1
Bulletin No 2
Bulletin No 1
Page 90 of 110




























Figure A-3-1. System operation procedure for issuing earthquake and tsunami bulletins.
Confirm tsunami triggering
Tsunami Height Bulletin Message Upgrade Status
>2m Warning Warning
0.5 to 2m Alert Warning
<0.5m Watch Alert
Bulletin No 4
Tide Gauges
Bulletin No 2
No significant
changes
All Clear
No more dangerous waves are expected
No
significant
>30 mm
>0.5m
Buoys
Bulletin No 3
Yes
Yes
Real Time water
Observation
Page 91 of 110





Figure A-3-2. Procedures for issuing Earthquake Bulletin No. 1 with or without tsunami
potential.












Page 92 of 110


Appendix-4

Table A-4-1. Tsunami heights of the coastal points at different magnitudes.
Coastal Point
Source Point
S15_D_M6.5_D0 S15_D_M7.0_D0 S15_D_M7.5_D0 S15_D_M8.0_D0 S15_D_M8.5_D0
Datai Bay 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.20 0.64
Banda Acheh 0.01 0.03 0.11 0.35 0.85
Cape Leveque 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.12
Chittagong 0.01 0.05 0.20 0.63 1.99
Yangon 0.02 0.06 0.23 0.77 3.36
Phuket 0.01 0.03 0.11 0.45 1.02
Karachi 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.07
Mahajanga 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.07
Antsiranana 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.10 0.19
Little Andaman 0.02 0.07 0.26 0.88 2.41
North Andaman 0.12 0.26 1.61 4.69 9.61
Baleshwar 0.01 0.07 0.24 0.69 2.88
Trincomalee 0.02 0.06 0.17 0.42 1.19
Salalah 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.15
Djibouti 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.08
Grand Gaube 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.15
Male 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.11 0.31
Mamoudzou 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.12
Kismayo 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.11 0.25
Dares Salaam 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.08 0.24

Remarks: For S15_D_M6.5_D0, it corresponds to source point named S15_D with magnitude
6.5 and depth 0 km. Tsunami height in metre (m).













Page 93 of 110


Table A-4-2. Tsunami heights of the coastal points at different depths.
Coastal Point
Source Point
S15_A_M8.0_D0 S15_D_M8.0_D20 S18_A_M8.0_D40 S18_D_M8.0_D60
Datai Bay 0.20 0.20 0.19 0.15
Banda Acheh 0.35 0.35 0.33 0.24
Cape Leveque 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02
Chittagong 0.63 0.63 0.62 0.50
Yangon 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.69
Phuket 0.45 0.45 0.43 0.31
Karachi 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Mahajanga 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02
Antsiranana 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.06
Little Andaman 0.88 0.88 0.85 0.56
North Andaman 4.69 4.69 4.50 3.14
Baleshwar 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.66
Trincomalee 0.42 0.42 0.36 0.21
Salalah 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.04
Djibouti 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Grand Gaube 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.04
Male 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.07
Mamoudzou 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.02
Kismayo 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.07
Dares Salaam 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.07


Remarks: For S15_D_M8.0_D0, it corresponds to source point named S15_D with magnitude
8.0 and depth 0 km. Tsunami height in metre (m).














Page 94 of 110


Table A-4-3. Tsunami heights of the coastal points at different sources.
Coastal Point
Source Point
S15_A_M8.0_D0 S15_D_M8.0_D0 S18_A_M8.0_D0 S18_D_M8.0_D0
Datai Bay 0.16 0.20 0.14 0.35
Banda Acheh 0.29 0.35 0.26 0.41
Cape Leveque 0.04 0.03 0.06 0.02
Chittagong 0.84 0.63 0.52 0.18
Yangon 0.53 0.77 0.34 0.77
Phuket 0.32 0.45 0.29 0.74
Karachi 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.03
Mahajanga 0.04 0.03 0.07 0.03
Antsiranana 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.08
Little Andaman 0.85 0.88 1.86 0.52
North Andaman 2.67 4.69 0.85 0.78
Baleshwar 1.00 0.69 0.81 0.30
Trincomalee 0.83 0.42 0.80 0.17
Salalah 0.11 0.08 0.12 0.06
Djibouti 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02
Grand Gaube 0.13 0.07 0.16 0.06
Male 0.16 0.11 0.12 0.07
Mamoudzou 0.07 0.04 0.08 0.04
Kismayo 0.17 0.11 0.13 0.06
Dares Salaam 0.07 0.08 0.12 0.07


Remarks: For S15_A_M8.0_D0, it corresponds to source point named S15_A with magnitude
8.0 and depth 0 km. Tsunami height in metre (m).














Page 95 of 110


Table A-4-4. Tsunami travel times of the coastal points at different magnitudes.
Coastal Point
Source Point
S15_D_M6.5_D0 S15_D_M7.0_D0 S15_D_M7.5_D0 S15_D_M8.0_D0 S15_D_M8.5_D0
Datai Bay 270.8 266.1 246.0 239.6 235.0
Banda Acheh 135.9 131.3 111.2 104.8 100.3
Cape Leveque 547.4 540.0 525.8 524.9 521.5
Chittagong 363.8 362.9 358.9 354.0 347.2
Yangon 393.3 391.3 371.8 363.9 353.9
Phuket 188.9 184.2 164.1 157.7 153.1
Karachi 495.0 491.5 486.4 478.7 469.7
Mahajanga 605.2 601.6 583.7 581.2 579.4
Antsiranana 535.7 532.1 506.8 504.2 509.8
Little Andaman 65.1 61.5 56.2 47.9 39.3
North Andaman 59.3 54.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Baleshwar 301.6 300.0 296.3 293.4 289.5
Trincomalee 141.8 138.2 133.5 126.2 117.5
Salalah 463.1 459.5 454.4 446.8 437.8
Djibouti 600.1 596.6 591.5 583.8 574.9
Grand Gaube 479.5 419.0 387.9 385.1 453.4
Male 256.5 252.9 247.8 240.2 231.2
Mamoudzou 562.3 558.8 541.6 539.1 536.5
Kismayo 560.9 557.3 552.2 544.5 535.5
Dares Salaam 606.5 603.0 597.9 590.1 581.1

Remarks: Tsunami travel times in minutes (min).
















Page 96 of 110


Table A-4-5. Tsunami travel times of the coastal points at different depths.
Coastal Point
Source Point
S15_A_M8.0_D0 S15_D_M8.0_D20 S18_A_M8.0_D40 S18_D_M8.0_D60
Datai Bay 239.6 239.6 239.4 241.6
Banda Acheh 104.8 104.8 104.7 106.5
Cape Leveque 524.9 524.9 531.0 531.2
Chittagong 354.0 354.0 353.8 354.2
Yangon 363.9 363.9 363.2 368.6
Phuket 157.7 157.7 157.5 159.8
Karachi 478.7 478.7 479.2 481.0
Mahajanga 581.2 581.2 589.1 590.4
Antsiranana 504.2 504.2 519.6 520.9
Little Andaman 47.9 47.9 48.7 48.9
North Andaman 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Baleshwar 293.4 293.4 292.8 291.4
Trincomalee 126.2 126.2 126.6 128.0
Salalah 446.8 446.8 447.2 449.0
Djibouti 583.8 583.8 584.3 586.1
Grand Gaube 385.1 385.1 463.2 464.1
Male 240.2 240.2 240.7 242.4
Mamoudzou 539.1 539.1 546.3 547.5
Kismayo 544.5 544.5 545.0 546.7
Dares Salaam 590.1 590.1 590.6 592.3


Remarks: Tsunami travel times in minutes (min).















Page 97 of 110


Table A-4-6. Tsunami Travel Times of the coastal points at different sources.
Coastal Point
Source Point
S15_A_M8.0_D0 S15_D_M8.0_D0 S18_A_M8.0_D0 S18_D_M8.0_D0
Datai Bay 260.2 239.6 244.1 222.6
Banda Acheh 121.1 104.8 105.0 86.0
Cape Leveque 526.9 524.9 510.9 517.2
Chittagong 350.8 354.0 368.4 380.5
Yangon 397.5 363.9 409.3 364.2
Phuket 182.4 157.7 166.3 140.7
Karachi 467.1 478.7 456.4 471.1
Mahajanga 577.0 581.2 565.8 578.9
Antsiranana 500.0 504.2 496.2 509.4
Little Andaman 44.8 47.9 28.8 33.2
North Andaman 64.6 0.0 73.8 53.9
Baleshwar 281.6 293.4 294.0 308.4
Trincomalee 112.2 126.2 105.3 121.2
Salalah 435.1 446.8 424.4 439.2
Djibouti 572.1 583.8 561.5 576.3
Grand Gaube 381.0 385.1 440.1 451.9
Male 228.5 240.2 217.8 232.6
Mamoudzou 534.6 539.1 522.9 536.0
Kismayo 532.9 544.5 522.1 536.6
Dares Salaam 578.5 590.1 567.7 582.2

Remarks: Tsunami travel times in minutes (min).
















Page 98 of 110


Table A-4-7. Comparison of Tsunami arrival times between TTT and directly obtained
by numerical simulation at 1 m water depth.

Coastal Point
TTT
(min)
Simulation
(min)
Datai Bay 239.6 226.55
Banda Acheh 104.8 88.37
Cape Leveque 524.9 580.40
Chittagong 354.0 316.39
Yangon 363.9 342.71
Phuket 157.7 136.92
Karachi 478.7 492.46
Mahajanga 581.2 597.79
Antsiranana 504.2 505.16
Little Andaman 47.9 19.68
North Andaman 0.0 3.88
Baleshwar 293.4 250.38
Trincomalee 126.2 110.66
Salalah 446.8 450.72
Djibouti 583.8 616.05
Grand Gaube 385.1 450.33
Male 240.2 202.23
Mamoudzou 539.1 555.92
Kismayo 544.5 522.37
Dares Salaam 590.1 579.20
















Page 99 of 110


Table A-4-8. Comparison of Tsunami heights between Application of Green Law and
directly obtained by numerical simulation at 1 m water depth.

Coastal Point Green Law (m) Simulation (m)
Datai Bay 0.20 0.10
Banda Acheh 0.35 0.19
Cape Leveque 0.03 0.02
Chittagong 0.63 0.31
Yangon 0.77 0.05
Phuket 0.45 0.16
Karachi 0.02 0.02
Mahajanga 0.03 0.02
Antsiranana 0.10 0.09
Little Andaman 0.88 0.42
North Andaman 4.69 1.52
Baleshwar 0.69 0.09
Trincomalee 0.42 0.26
Salalah 0.08 0.04
Djibouti 0.02 0.01
Grand Gaube 0.07 0.07
Male 0.11 0.05
Mamoudzou 0.04 0.02
Kismayo 0.11 0.08
Dares Salaam 0.08 0.11

















Page 100 of 110


Appendix-5








Figure A-5-1. Tsunami propagation snapshots of Bengkulu Tsunami using TUNAMI-F1
in spherical coordinates system.
Page 101 of 110





Time: 10 min Time: 20 min


Time: 30 min Time: 40 min

Figure A-5-2. Tsunami propagation snapshots of Bengkulu Tsunami using NAMI-
DANCE Version 4.7 in spherical coordinates system.



Page 102 of 110









Figure A-5-3. Tsunami propagation snapshots of Bengkulu Tsunami using TUNAMI-N2
in Cartesian coordinates system.

Page 103 of 110



Time: 10 min Time: 20 min


Time: 30 min Time: 40 min

Figure A-5-4. Tsunami propagation snapshots of Bengkulu Tsunami using NAMI-
DANCE Version 4.7 in Cartesian coordinates system.





Page 104 of 110


Appendix-6

Table A-6-1. Tsunami heights at coastal points obtained by simple, interpolation,
extrapolation and maximum risk methods.
Coastal Point Simple Interpolation Extrapolation Maximum risk
Datai Bay 1.69 1.11 0.97 1.69
Banda Acheh 6.28 3.89 3.34 6.28
Cape Leveque 0.26 0.36 0.23 0.50
Chittagong 0.90 0.67 0.45 1.03
Yangon 1.01 0.73 0.64 1.01
Phuket 2.18 1.43 1.50 2.18
Karachi 0.41 0.39 0.28 0.49
Mahajanga 0.41 0.43 0.28 0.54
Antsiranana 1.06 1.17 0.86 1.52
Little Andaman 1.94 1.44 1.48 2.02
North Andaman 1.03 0.99 0.87 1.26
Baleshwar 1.14 0.76 0.71 1.14
Trincomalee 1.78 1.26 0.89 2.65
Salalah 0.92 0.82 0.55 1.26
Djibouti 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.21
Grand Gaube 0.68 0.58 0.42 0.88
Male 1.99 1.38 1.21 2.03
Mamoudzou 0.74 0.54 0.42 0.74
Kismayo 1.66 1.44 1.11 1.89
Dares Salaam 1.05 0.87 0.64 1.30

Remark: Unit in metre (m)














Page 105 of 110


Table A-6-2. Tsunami arrival times at coastal points obtained by simple, interpolation,
extrapolation and maximum risk methods.
Coastal Point Simple Interpolation Extrapolation Maximum risk
Datai Bay 183.20 189.80 183.20 178.50
Banda Acheh 29.90 36.22 29.90 25.10
Cape Leveque 422.90 421.50 422.90 416.90
Chittagong 447.40 451.79 447.40 440.50
Yangon 434.20 440.19 434.20 429.10
Phuket 115.30 121.82 115.30 110.70
Karachi 447.20 448.39 447.20 442.30
Mahajanga 535.60 533.50 535.60 529.20
Antsiranana 466.10 464.03 466.10 459.70
Little Andaman 70.60 74.94 70.60 63.60
North Andaman 153.50 157.84 153.50 146.50
Baleshwar 367.50 371.89 367.50 360.50
Trincomalee 116.00 118.80 116.00 112.90
Salalah 415.20 416.38 415.20 410.30
Djibouti 552.30 553.51 552.30 547.50
Grand Gaube 387.20 385.11 387.20 380.80
Male 206.70 207.50 206.70 201.80
Mamoudzou 492.80 490.67 492.80 486.40
Kismayo 502.20 500.70 502.20 496.40
Dares Salaam 547.40 545.83 547.40 541.50

Remark: Unit in minutes (min)
















Page 106 of 110


Appendix-7










































Figure A-7-1. Application of searching methods in tsunami database.
No
Yes
Yes No
No Yes
Start
6.5M8.5
Within
15.7 km
Interpolation
Simple
Extrapolation
Database
Outputs
End
Inside
Ranges
Fail Message
Page 107 of 110





Figure A-7-2. Interface of Integrated Database Management System
















Page 108 of 110


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