Professional Documents
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Shawn M. Severson
Managing Director 415.489.2198 shawn@blueshirtgroup.com Twitter: @ShawnEnergyTech
Ralph K. Fong
Director 415.489.2195 ralph@blueshirtgroup.com Twitter: @RalphEnergyTech
Summary
This week (ending 1/24/2013), the TBG Energy & Environmental Technologies (E&ET) Index underperformed the broader market and was down 5.2% week-over-week (vs. the S&P 500 Index decrease of 2.6%, Russell 2000 decrease of 2.1% and NASDAQ Composite decrease of 1.7%). This compares to a decrease of 3.2% for the Industrial Technologies index. The E&ET Index is -2.4% YTD vs. -3.1% for the S&P 500, -1.7% for the Russell 2000 Index, and -1.2% for the Nasdaq Composite. In terms of sub-sectors, only one of the seven indices we track outperformed the broader market this week. Environmental Services posted a loss of 1.4% on the week, vs. -2.6% for the S&P 500, -2.1% for the Russell 2000, and -1.7% for Nasdaq Composite. Alternative Energy Conversion (Other (-8.6%), Solar (-7.8%), Clean Transportation (-7.0%), Energy Conversion Technology (-5.1%), Water Value Chain (-4.2%) and Emissions Control (-3.1%) underperformed the broader market this week, vs. -2.6% for the S&P 500 and -2.1% for the Russell 2000.
Figure 1: The TBG E&ET Index- Relative Performance (Week Ending 1/24/2014)
Figure 2: The Energy & Environmental Technologies Sub-sector Performance (Week Ending 1/24/2014)
Figure 3: The Energy & Environmental Technologies Index Performance (Jan 2012 Jan 2014)
Note: Indices are indexed to 100 Source: Thomson Reuters, The Blueshirt Group
Figure 4: The Energy & Environmental Technologies Index Performance (Jan 2013- Jan 2014)
Note: Indices are indexed to 100 Source: Thomson Reuters, The Blueshirt Group
Figure 6: 2013 Revenue Consensus Estimate Change % by Segment (December 2013 vs. January 2013)
Figure 7: Y/Y Revenue Growth Expectations by Segment Based on Consensus Estimates (2014 vs. 2013)
In terms of consensus estimates, Figures 8 -11 indicate the week-over-week estimate change in revenue and EPS for the companies in our Energy & Environmental Technologies (E&ET) Index for full-year 2013 and 2014. For the week ending 1/24/2014, there were 4 companies seeing increases and 4 declines in 2013 consensus revenue estimates, 5 increases and 11 declines in 2014 revenue estimates, 9 increases and 2 declines in 2013 EPS consensus estimates, and 8 increases and 9 declines in 2014 EPS consensus estimates. This compares to last weeks 9 increases and 5 declines in 2013 consensus revenue estimates, 17 increases and 11 declines in 2014 consensus revenue estimates, 9 increases and 8 declines in 2013 consensus EPS estimates, and 15 increases and 8 declines in 2014 consensus EPS estimates. In terms of subsectors, Figures 12 15 highlight the number of companies with week-over-week consensus estimate change in revenue and EPS by sub-sector for full-year 2013 and 2014. For the week ending 1/24/2014, there were 2 companies in Environmental Services, 1 company in the Energy Conversion Technology segment, and 1 company in Emissions Control with increases in 2013 consensus revenue estimates. Additionally, there were 1 company in Clean Transportation, 1 in Water Value Chain and 2 in Alternative Energy Conversion Technology (Other) with declines in 2013 consensus revenue estimates. For 2013 EPS consensus estimates, there were 3 companies in Clean Transportation, 2 companies in Energy Conversion Technology, 2 in Water Value Chain, 1 in Emissions Control and 1 in Environmental Services with increases in consensus estimates week-over week change. There were 2 companies in Solar with declines in 2013 EPS consensus estimate week-over-week change this week.
Figure 8: Components in the E&ET Index 2013 Revenue Consensus Estimate Week-over-Week Change %
Figure 9: Components in the E&ET Index 2013 EPS Consensus Estimate Week-over-Week Change %
Figure 10: Components in the E&ET Index 2014 Revenue Consensus Estimate Week-over-Week Change %
Figure 11: Components in the E&ET Index 2014 EPS Consensus Estimate Week-over-Week Change %
Figure 12: 2013 Revenue Consensus Estimate Week-over-Week Change- Number of Companies by Sub-sector
Figure 13: 2013 EPS Consensus Estimate Week-over-Week Change- Number of Companies by Sub-sector
Figure 14: 2014 Revenue Consensus Estimate Week-over-Week Change- Number of Companies by Sub-sector
Figure 15: 2014 EPS Consensus Estimate Week-over-Week Change- Number of Companies by Sub-sector
In terms of valuation, Figure 16 shows the historical valuation of the TBG E&ET Index, while Figure 17 shows the historical relative valuation of the TBG E&ET Index to the S&P 500. Since 2000, the TBG E&ET Index has traded in line with the S&P 500 of 1.05x. They currently trade above that level at 1.31x, which is within one standard deviation of the average (0.74x to 1.35x).
Figure 16: TBG E&ET Index- Historical NTM P/E
Figure 17: TBG E&ET Index- Historical NTM P/E Relative to S&P 500
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Figure 18: P/E of Selected Components of Energy Conversion Tech Value Chain Index
Note: P/Es are based on NTM consensus estimates Source: Thomson Reuters, The Blueshirt Group
Note: P/Es are based on NTM consensus estimates Source: Thomson Reuters, The Blueshirt Group
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Note: P/Es are based on NTM consensus estimates Source: Thomson Reuters, The Blueshirt Group
Note: P/Es are based on NTM consensus estimates Source: Thomson Reuters, The Blueshirt Group
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Note: P/Es are based on NTM consensus estimates Source: Thomson Reuters, The Blueshirt Group
Note: P/Es are based on NTM consensus estimates Source: Thomson Reuters, The Blueshirt Group
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Regarding news flow, last week was mixed with several positive industry and company announcements, coupled with the downside surprise in Chinas PMI flash/preliminary reading. The positive announcements included: 1) Aegion Corporation Receives Maintenance Contracts from Tesoro Corporation for Three of Its California Refinery Operations, 2) Johnson Controls reported solid F1Q results and reaffirms FY14 EPS guidance , 3) Ecosphere Technologies had been named a winner in the 2013 Governor's Innovators in Business Awards by Enterprise Florida (EFI), and 4) the European Union last week proposed cutting the regions greenhouse-gas emissions by 40% in 2030, accelerating its efforts to fight climate change.
Economic News
CHINA PMI (PRELIMINARY READING) 49.6; SIGNALS SURPRISE CONTRACTION http://www.hsbc.com/news-and-insight/2014/flash-pmi-at-six-month-low Chinas manufacturing sector hit a 6-month low in January, according to the preliminary reading of the HSBC/Markit PMI index. The index decreased to 49.6, compared to the final reading of 50.5 in December and 50.8 in November. Commenting on the Flash China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said, The marginal contraction of Januarys headline HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI was mainly dragged by cooling domestic demand conditions. This implies softening growth momentum for manufacturing sector, which has already weighed on employment growth. As inflation is not a concern, the policy focus should tilt towards supporting growth to avoid repeating growth deceleration seen in 1H 2013.
Rig Count The natural gas rotary rig count decreased to 356 last week, according to data released by Baker Hughes. This represents a decrease of 9 rigs from the previous week. Additionally, the oil rig count increased by 8 to 1,416 active units. The total rig count is 1,777, flat for the week and up twenty-four from a year ago.
Industry News Energy Conversion Tech Value Chain AMERICAN DG ENERGY TO OVERSEE COMPLETE ENERGY PLANT CONVERSION http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/american-dg-energy-to-oversee-complete-energy-plantconversion-241640161.html American DG Energy Inc. (ADGE), a leading OnSite Utility, offering clean electricity, heat, hot water and cooling solutions to hospitality, healthcare, housing and athletic facilities, announced that it had reached agreements with Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc. to manage an energy plant conversion, along with installation and maintenance of a combined heat and power (CHP) system at the DoubleTree Suites by Hilton New York City Times Square. The agreements should provide American DG Energy with approximately $1,300,000 in revenue in 2014. Water Value Chain Ecosphere Technologies Named One of the 2013 Governor's Innovators in Business Awards Winners http://www.ecospheretech.com/water-recycling-news/press-releases/release?id=1174 Co. announced it had been named a winner in the 2013 Governor's Innovators in Business Awards by Enterprise Florida (EFI). The awards program, in its 30 thyear of operation, recognizes Florida companies in select industries that have influenced the state's economic growth and diversification over the last year.
AEGION SUBSIDIARY AWARDED FIVE-YEAR TERM CONTRACT VALUED AT ~ $24.7 MILLION FOR BARWON WATER IN AUSTRALIA http://www.aegion.com/CompanyInformation/NewsAndMedia/Press%20Release%20Archive/2014/Barwon_ Water_Australia.aspx?p=1 Co announced that its subsidiary, Insituform Pacific, has been awarded a five-year term contract for Barwon Water in Victoria, Australia. Although Insituform-Australia has previously worked for other clients in Victoria, this The Blueshirt Group - Energy & Environmental Technologies Practice The Weekly Watch 14
is Insituform-Australia's first contract award from Barwon Water. Insituform-Australia expects to complete approximately $24.7 million of work throughout the contract's five-year term. AEGION CORPORATION RECEIVES MAINTENANCE CONTRACTS FROM TESORO CORPORATION FOR THREE OF ITS CALIFORNIA REFINERY OPERATIONS http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20140124005650/en/Aegion-Corporation-Receives-MaintenanceContracts-Tesoro-Corporation#.UuLMpRDTmCg Co announced that its subsidiary, Brinderson, L.P., has received a long term contract extension for work at the Los Angeles refinery operated by Tesoro Refining & Marketing Company LLC. In addition, Tesoro renewed its contract with Brinderson for its Golden Eagle refinery in Martinez, California. The combined expected 2014 revenues, pending adherence to all performance and safety criteria per the contracts, are to be approximately $40 million, with $20 million of incremental revenue in 2014 to Brinderson. Emissions Control EU CALLS FOR 40% REDUCTION IN GREENHOUSE-GAS OUTPUT BY 2030 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-22/eu-said-to-propose-40-greenhouse-gas-reduction-target-by2030.html The European Union last week proposed cutting the regions greenhouse-gas emissions by 40% in 2030, accelerating its efforts to fight climate change. The European Commissions strategy to reduce pollution, curb rising energy costs and overhaul renewable-energy policies in the next decade would require an average annual investment of 38 billion euros ($52 billion) in the 28-nation bloc, the regions executive arm said in a statement. The current goal is to cut emissions by 20% in 2020 from 1990 levels, a pace that would lead the EU to a 32% reduction of greenhouse gases by 2030. The proposed design of future policies pits nations including Germany and the U.K., who are seeking stronger efforts to protect the atmosphere, against Poland and its allies, which rely mainly on fossil fuels to keep their economy humming. It also highlights the divide between energy intensive companies, whose gas and power costs are more than double their U.S. and Asian competitors, and green lobbies such as Greenpeace seeking deeper emission cuts.
Clean Transportation
ALTAIR NAOTECHNOLOGIES FILES 8-K
Altairnano, Inc. approved plans to consolidate all US manufacturing operations and transition manufacturing to Wuan, China starting in the second quarter of 2014. Co. will retain engineering, research and development, sales and marketing, and support capabilities in the US. We are currently in the final planning phases of this initiative and the Company will roll out details to its customers in the near future.
UQM TECHNOLOGIES, INC. SUPPLIES INDONESIAN BUS MANUFACTURER PT SARIMAS AHMADI PRATAMA http://uqm.com/uqm-technologies-inc-supplies-indonesian-bus-manufacturer-pt-sarimas-ahmadi-pratama/ Co. announced that PT Sarimas Ahmadi Pratama of Jakarta, Indonesia is currently using its UQM PowerPhase Pro 135 for their all-electric 17-passenger bus. The all-electric bus is contributing to the Indonesian governments ambitious target to begin the mass -production of electric cars and buses in 2014.
Solar Technology SHARP SAYS TO END SOLAR PANEL PRODUCTION IN U.S. BY END-MARCH http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/23/us-sharp-solar-idUSBREA0M05I20140123 Japan's Sharp Corp (6753.T) said on Thursday it would stop making solar panels in the United States by the end of March, extending its overhaul of unprofitable operations in response to fierce competition from lowcost Chinese rivals. The decision is in line with a strategy devised by the electronics maker last May to recover from heavy losses across its businesses. As part of a three-year revival plan, Sharp promised to slim down its solar panel operations overseas and strengthen its display business. The U.S. shutdown would cost about 300 jobs, or two-thirds of the workforce, at a Sharp plant in Tennessee, a source with direct knowledge of the matter said.
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COBALT POWER AND TRINA SOLAR ANNOUNCE FIRST COMMERCIAL INSTALLATION OF TRINASMART IN NORTH AMERICA http://ir.trinasolar.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=206405&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1892960&highlight= Trina Solar (TSL) announced that Cobalt Power successfully commissioned the first commercial-scale installation of Trinasmart in North America. The 113kW system located in the San Francisco Bay Area is the first North American commercial project featuring Trinasmart modules. SOLARCITY TEAMS WITH 20 OREGON HOMEBUILDERS TO BUILD SOLAR-POWERED COMMUNITIES http://www.marketwatch.com/story/solarcity-teams-with-20-oregon-homebuilders-to-build-solar-poweredcommunities-2014-01-23?reflink=MW_news_stmp Homebuilders in Oregon are partnering with SolarCity (SCTY) to provide affordable, clean energy to new home communities. Twenty local homebuilders, from the Portland area to central Oregon, have begun offering solar power to homebuyers through SolarCity, giving hundreds of future homeowners the chance to save on their energy bills from day one without paying a single penny extra for their homes. REAL GOODS SOLAR HAS CHANGED ITS BRAND IDENTITY TO RGS ENERGY; TICKER TO BE CHANGED TO RGSE http://rgsenergy.com/press-releases/real-goods-solar-rebrands-rgs-energy/ Reflecting the brand change, the co's NASDAQ stock symbol will change from "RSOL" to "RGSE," effective at the start of trading on Monday, February 24, 2014. FIRST SOLAR STARTS CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY ON BARILLA SOLAR PROJECT http://investor.firstsolar.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=820461 First Solar (FSLR) has begun construction on Phase I of the Barilla Solar Project in Pecos County, Texas, west of Fort Stockton. The 22 megawatt (MW)AC project is expected to begin commercial operation in mid-2014. CANADIAN SOLAR AND SILVERCREEK PARTNER ON 10 MW AC UTILITY-SCALE SOLAR POWER PLANT IN ONTARIO http://investors.canadiansolar.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=196781&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1892535&highlight= Canadian Solar (CSIQ) announced that its subsidiary, Canadian Solar Solutions, has signed a 10 MWac Module Supply Agreement with Silvercreek Solar Park to provide Ontario-made Canadian Solar modules for a ground-mounted utility-scale solar power plant in Canada. WACKER SUBSIDIARY SILTRONIC ACQUIRES MAJORITY OWNERSHIP OF JOINT VENTURE WITH SAMSUNG IN SINGAPORE http://www.dgap.de/dgap/News/corporate/wacker-subsidiary-siltronic-acquires-majority-ownership-jointventure-with-samsung-singapore/?companyID=1402&newsID=785854 Siltronic AG, a 100-percent subsidiary of Wacker Chemie AG, is taking over a majority stake in its Siltronic Samsung Wafer Pte. Ltd. joint venture. Siltronic and Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. announced the signing of the relevant contracts. So far, each company has held a 50-percent stake in the joint venture. Now, Siltronic is to subscribe for new shares as part of a capital increase. It will own 78 percent of the joint venture. Samsung's stake will decrease to 22 percent as a result. At the same time, the joint venture is to repay all outstanding project loans of some EUR210 million. Siltronic will spend about EUR150 million in total on this. Consequently, the net financial debt of the WACKER Group will climb by the same amount. The full consolidation of the joint venture will increase Siltronic's EBITDA. With full consolidation, Siltronic would have posted EBITDA of some EUR100 million in 2012 instead of EUR0.7 million as reported. The joint venture will be renamed Siltronic Silicon Wafer Pte. Ltd. Amid the new ownership structure, Samsung will remain one of Siltronic's key customers for 300 millimeter silicon wafers.
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Earnings News Industrial JOHNSON CONTROLS REPORTS EPS IN-LINE, BEATS ON REVENUE; GUIDES 2Q EPS IN-LINE; REAFFIRMS FY14 EPS GUIDANCE http://www.johnsoncontrols.com/content/us/en/news.html?newsitem=http%3A%2F%2Fjohnsoncontrols.medi aroom.com%2Findex.php%3Fs%3D113%26item%3D3246 Co. reported F1Q14 earnings of $0.69 per share, in-line with consensus estimate of $0.69. Revenues increased 4.7% y/y to $10.91 billion vs. the $10.76 billion consensus. Automotive Experience revenues in F1Q14 were $5.8 billion, up 10% y/y, reflecting higher automotive production in all geographic regions. Automotive industry production in the quarter increased 5% in North America, 2% in Europe and 14% in China. Seating and Interiors sales increased at a double digit rate, while Electronics sales were up 7%. Revenues in China, which are primarily related to Seating and generated through non-consolidated joint ventures, increased 33% to $1.9 billion. Automotive Experience segment income was $232 million, more than double the $101 million reported in F1Q13. The increase was primarily led by improvements in the company's Seating business, with segment income of $176 million in the current quarter, compared with $85 million last year. The Automotive Experience improvement was a result of the higher global production levels, benefits from cost reduction initiatives and improved operational performance in the company's metals and mechanisms business. Co issues in-line guidance for F2Q with EPS expected to be in the range of $0.64-0.66 vs. consensus $0.66. Co reaffirms guidance for FY14 with EPS of $3.15-3.30(vs. consensus $3.27), FCF of $1.6 billion and segment margin improvements in all three of its businesses for the full 2014 fiscal year.
GENERAL ELECTRIC REPORTS EPS IN-LINE, REVENUE IN-LINE; 2014 FRAMEWORK REMAINS UNCHANGED http://www.genewscenter.com/Press-Releases/GE-Reports-4Q-13-Operating-EPS-0-53-20-Organic-Revenues5-4Q-Operating-margins-18-3-100-ba-44ba.aspx Co. reported 4Q earnings of $0.53 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with consensus estimate of $0.53; Revenues increased 3.1% y/y to $40.38 billion vs the $40.21 billion consensus. Industrial sales of $28.8 billion increased 6% Y/Y. GECC revenues of $11.1 billion decreased 5% Y/Y. 4Q U.S. orders +8%, growth market orders +13%, Europe orders +3% Industrial segment profits rose 12% to $5.5 billion. Six of seven Industrial segments had positive earnings growth. Industrial segment margins improved 100 basis points over the prior-year period. Infrastructure orders for the quarter were $30.7 billion, up 8%. GE's backlog of equipment and services at the end of the quarter was its highest ever at $244 billion, up $15 billion from the third quarter. Industrial segment revenues grew 6%, with organic growth of 5%. Growth market revenues were up 10% for the quarter, with double-digit growth in six of nine growth regions, and growth market orders were up 13%. Services revenue grew 6%, with gains in most segments. 2014 framework remains unchanged.
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Conference Calendar
Date February 10-12 February 11-12 February 11-13 February 12-13 February 18-19 February 26 February 27 February 27-28
Title of Conference Stifel Technology, Internet & Media Conference UBS SMID Cap One-on-One Symposium Goldman Sachs Technology & Internet Conference BB&T Capital Markets 29th Annual Transportation Services Conference Enercom Consulting The Oil & Services Conference Gabelli & Co. 24th Annual Industrial Flow & Infrastructure Conference Stifel Industrials Conference Simmons & Co. 14th Annual Energy Conference
Location San Francisco, CA Boston, MA San Francisco, CA Coral Gables, FL San Francisco, CA New York, NY New York, NY New York, NY
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1.1x ($0.19) 1.9x $0.83 1.7x $0.92 1.9x $2.49 N.A. N/A 2.4x $1.62 1.3x $0.27 0.9x $0.07 1.6x
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$6,100 $10,784.9 $10,484.3 $1,139 $1,101.9 $1,301.4 $4,514 $2,159.7 $2,365.2 $833 $334.0 $356.1 $1,135 $553.5 $603.0 $1,305 $868.3 $912.0 $48 N/A N/A $190 $41.7 $51.2 $2,124 $954.4 $1,029.3 $855 $395.3 $437.4 $93 $38.5 $56.0 $6,297 $2,024.0 $2,142.3 $1,975 $1,952.3 $2,073.8 $451 $1,096.5 $883.9 $944 $698.1 $654.4 $1,893 $1,127.1 $1,211.3 $639 $343.0 $461.0 $4,574 $2,009.7 $2,100.3 $901 $639.5 $684.4 $50 $116.8 N/A $2,119 $1,476.4 $1,553.8 $7,346 $3,790.4 $3,941.0 Average
$5.95 $5.76 9.3x 9.6x $1.28 $1.66 17.4x 13.4x $2.05 $2.28 25.4x 22.9x $1.70 $2.19 31.6x 24.5x $0.83 $1.04 24.6x 19.7x $3.19 $3.88 23.9x 19.7x N/A N/A N.A. N.A ($0.11) $0.02 N.M. N.M. $1.72 $1.94 25.0x 22.1x $1.24 $1.51 27.1x 22.2x ($0.35) ($0.13) N.M. N.M. $3.06 $3.36 23.8x 21.7x $2.29 $2.95 18.8x 14.6x $1.09 ($3.39) 16.6x N.M. $5.56 $4.39 15.2x 19.3x $0.17 $0.32 51.0x 27.6x ($1.45) $0.24 N.M. N.M. $0.97 $1.35 29.6x 21.2x ($9.42) ($0.68) N.M. N.M. $1.39 N/A 1.0x N.A $2.26 $2.88 25.6x 20.0x $1.63 $1.91 21.7x 18.5x 22.8x 19.8x
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