Introduction To Transport Planning

CIVI 474/6411 1
CIVI 474 / CIVI 6411

Introduction to
Transportation Planning
Ciprian Alecsandru
Concordia University
1
Introduction
What?
To develop forecasts of travel demand and traffic growth
Why?
To make decisions concerning new or existing
transportation facilities
Goals?
to achieve better level of service in traffic flow, improved
safety, savings in energy consumption, travel time savings,
economic growth, increased accessibility, etc.
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Basic Elements of TP
Situation Definition
understand current situation that gave rise to need for improvement (e.g. travel
patterns, traffic volumes, prior studies, scope of study, public hearings).
Problem Definition
identify the objectives to be accomplished (e.g. reducing traffic congestion,
improve safety, and maximize highway-user benefits). Measures of
effectiveness are needed such as travel time, delay, and queue lengths.
Search for Solutions
brainstorming stage to bring in ideas, designs, locations, system
configurations. Technology plays a role and this stage requires data gathering,
field testing, cost estimation, and operating policies.
Analysis of Performance
to determine investment cost of project and annual cost for maintenance and
operation, to estimate travel demand, and to collect other information on trip
length, travel by time of day, noise, air pollution, etc.
Evaluation of Alternatives
Choice of Project
Specification and Construction
3
Transportation Planning Organizations
Policy Committee
Elected or appointed officials. Makes basic policy
decisions and acts as board of directors for the
study
Technical Committee
Engineering and planning staff for evaluations and
cost analysis. It includes highway, transit and
traffic engineers, and specialists in land-use
planning, economics, and computer modeling.
Citizens Advisory Committee
Community to express goals and objectives of
local communities.
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Urban Transportation Planning Horizons
Short-term emphasis (1 to 5 years) for better
management of existing facilities such as
signal timing, car pooling, dedicated travel
lanes etc.
Long-term emphasis (10 - 20 years) for new
highways, freeway lanes, bus lines, rapid
transit systems, overall transportation
system analysis and improvement.
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Forecasting Travel Demand
Major objective
To determine the number of persons or vehicles per unit
time that can be expected to travel a given section under
a set of land use, socioeconomic, and environmental
conditions. This process is as much art as it is a science.
Factors influencing travel demand
Location and intensity of land use
Socioeconomic characteristics of people in study area
Extent, cost, and quality of transportation services
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Forecasting Issues
Making accurate forecasting of economic
growth/decline
Developing methods to accurately forecast the
travelers decision making process
Temporal (when to)
Destination (where to)
Mode (how to get there)
Spatial (which route to take)
Complexity of system equilibration
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Traveler Decision-Making Process
Socioeconomics
Household income
Household size
Car ownership
Age
Activity Patterns
Work
Education
Shopping
Recreation
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Origins of Modern Urban Transportation
Planning (UTP)
US Bureau of Roads, 1944
Scientific methods (standardization,
systematization) applied to planning of
infrastructure, in response to automobile
congestion
Exported abroad (e.g. Canada, Western
Europe, Australia)
Goals of UTP
Predict and provide for future demand for
mobility (supply-side approach)
Increase mobility by increasing vehicle speeds,
separating modes, etc.
Reduced pollution from faster vehicles
Comprehensive approach to surface
transportation infrastructure (roads and rail)
Increasing welfare
Serving public interest
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The UTP Process
Data collection
Four step travel demand model (prediction
of future volumes of car & transit vehicle
traffic)
Cost-benefit analysis of infrastructure
proposals
Implementation of infrastructure expansion
to provide for anticipated future volumes
Travel Forecasting Process
4-step process
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Basic Definitions
Trip Generation
Forecasts the number of trips that will be made.
Trip Distribution
Determines where the trips will go.
Mode Choice
Predicts how the trips will be divided among the available
modes of travel
Network Assignment
Predicts the routes that the trips will take traffic flow on
highway or transit links.
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Initial Preparation
Define study area
Define area boundaries, should consider future growth.
Subdivide the area into zones.
What is a zone?
Transportation analysis unit (TAZ).
Zones vary in size depending on density of urban
development
Socioeconomic characteristics are homogeneous
Internal trips are minimized
Use of physical, political, and historical boundaries
Use of census tracts
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Zone Types
CBD: zone could be a single block
Undeveloped area: zone may be >10 sq.
miles
Typically, zones bound homogenous
activities (all residential, all commercial,
and all industrial).
Zones are grouped into larger units known
as districts (district may contain 10 zones).
A city of 1M may have 100 districts.
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O/D Trips Analysis
Requirements:
Data Collection: economic activities (employment, income,
land use type and density, travel characteristics, existing
transportation facilities, etc.)
Population and Economic Data for each zone
Transportation Inventories: computerized network of streets
(links, nodes, centroids, etc.)
Travel Surveys: for complete understanding of the travel
patterns within the study area and for O/D estimation (need
trip origin, destination, length, mode, route)
Calibration: applies to mathematical models to estimate
travel demand in terms of socioeconomic factors, land use,
etc.
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Step 1: TRIP GENERATION
The objective of a trip generation model is to
forecast the number of person-trips that will
begin from or end in each traffic zone within
the region for a typical day of the target year.
Each trip has two trip ends
Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment
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Classification of Trips
The zonal trips are estimated separately
by trip purpose.
Examples: work trips, shopping trips,
social/recreational, medical, and others
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Trip Types
Home-Based Trips:
Are all trips that either begin or end at home of the
trip maker (e.g. HomeBasedWork, HBShopping, etc.)
Non Home-Based Trips:
Are trips with both ends at a place other than trip
makers residence (NHBS)
Separate trip generation models are usually
developed for each trip purpose, because the
travel behavior of trip makers depends on the trip
purpose, time of day, etc.
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Objectives of Trip Generation
To develop relationships between trip end
production or attraction and land use
To use these relationships for estimating the
number of trips generated in the future under
different land-use conditions
21
Trip Generation Methods
1. Cross-Classification
2. Rates based on activity units
3. Regression
Preference is given to methods that use
disaggregated analysis (based on individual
sample units: persons, HH, income, vehicle
units)
Regression analysis uses zonal aggregated
data
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Cross-Classification
Used to determine the number of home-
based trips (FHWA)
Income and auto ownership are used for trip
generation
Requires surveys to construct curves
describing the zonal characteristics
23
Average Zonal Income vs. Households in
Income Category
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Example Dataset (trips per day)
25
26
Households by Auto Ownership and Income Category
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Households by Auto Ownership and Income Category
27
Trips per Household per Day by Auto
Ownership and Income Category
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Trips per Household per Day by Auto
Ownership and Income Category
29
Trips by Purpose and Income Category
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Method 1: Cross-Classification
Computing Trips Generated in a Suburban Zone
Example:
Consider a zone that has 60 dwelling units (houses)
Zone average income per house is $44,000
Find the number of trips per day generated by this
zone for each trip purpose using figures 12.2 to
12.5
31
Step 1
Find the percentage of households in each income category
Refer to figure 12.2
Avg. zone income $44,000
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Step 1: Results
Income Category %HH
Low (< $32,000)
Medium ($32,000-$48,000)
High (> $48,000)
9
40
51
Sum = 100 %
33
Step 2
For each income category, find the distribution of auto
ownership/HH using figure 12.3, below:
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Step 2: Results
Autos / HH
From
Step 1
Income
Category
0 1 2+ Sum % HH
Low 54 42 4 100 9
Medium 4 58 38 100 40
High 2 30 68 100 51
% or probability of HH with low income and 0 autos
Q: How many HH are with medium income and 1 auto in a zone with 60 HH?
35
Number of HH by auto and income
Autos / HH
Income
Category
0 1 2+ Sum
Low
2.9 2.3 0.2
5
Medium
1.0 9.1
24
High
0.6 9.2 20.8
31
Sum = 60 HH
Number of HH with 1 auto and medium
Income [=40%*58%*60 HH]
= M
1
36
13.9
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Step 3
Find the number of trips / HH / day for each
income-auto category using figure 12.4
37
Step 3: Results
Autos / HH
Income
Category
0 1 2+
Low 1 6 7
Medium 2 8 13
High 3 11 15
Number of trips generated by each
HH with medium income and 1 auto
M
2
=
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Step 4
Find the total number of trips / day in each
income-auto category
Multiply M
1
by M
2
(dot product) and round-up
Autos / HH
Income
Category
0 1 2+ Sum
Low 3 14 2 19
Medium 2 111 119 232
High 2 101 312 415
Sum 7 226 433 666
Total trips from zone
M
3
=
39
Step 5
Find trips by purpose using figure 12.5
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Step 5: Results: % trips by purpose
Trip Purpose Total Trips
Income
Category
%HBO %NHB %HBW Sum from
M
3
Low 53.7 31.1 15.2 19
Medium 51 32 17 232
High 49.2 32.8 18 415
666
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Final Results
Trip Purpose
Income
Category
HBO
Home-
Based
Other
NHB
Non-Home-
Based
HBW
Home-
Based
Work
Sum from M
3
Low 10.2 5.9 2.88 19
Medium
118.32 74.24 39.44
232
High
204.18 136.12 74.7
415
Sum 333 216 117 666
Total number of home-based work trips per day
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Problem
?
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Trip Generation Approaches
Rates based on activity units
Regression
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Rates Based on Activity Units
Trip generation is determined for residential zones
where the basic unit is the household.
Trips generated at the household end are referred
to as productions
Are attracted to zones for different purposes (e.g. work,
shopping, school, and medical services, etc.)
An activity unit can be described by related measures
(e.g. square feet of floor space or number of
employees).
Trip generation rates for attraction zones can be
determined from survey data or are tabulated
specialized handbooks
47
determined from survey data or the rates tabulated
in specialized handbooks can be used
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determined from survey data or the rates tabulated
in specialized handbooks can be used
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Trip Generation Approaches
Rates based on activity units
Regression
51
Recall: Least Square Regression
Develop mathematical relationships from empirical
data
Linear regression method estimates a relationship
between a dependent variable (e.g. number of trips
generated from a given zone) and a set of
independent variables (e.g. number of persons in a
HH, HH income, auto ownership, etc.)
Solution comes from an optimization problem that
seeks minimizing the sum of square deviations
between observed and estimated values
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Linear Regression Models
To estimate the number of vehicle-based trips
Variables: socioeconomic and/or distributional
(residential and commercial) characteristics
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Example 8.1 (Mannering et al.)
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Solution
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Use the given linear regression to estimate the number of
vehicle trips before and after the family moves.
Probabilistic Models
Linear regression not always realistic
(fractions of trips)
Use of probabilistic distribution functions to
estimate the probability of making a certain
number of trips (0, 1, 2, )
Poisson regression
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Poisson Regression
57
Example 8.4 (Mannering et al.)
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Solution
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Introduction To Transport Planning

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