Khoa Ti Chnh Doanh Nghip

B mn Ti Chnh Quc T
Bi 4: T gi hi oi 1
TA TA I CH I CH NH QUO NH QUO C TE C TE
Ba Ba i 4: T i 4: T gia gia ho ho i i d doa oa i i
International Finance - 2006
Khoa Tai Chnh Doanh Nghiep
Bo mon Tai Chnh Quoc Te
XA XA C C [NH TY [NH TY GlA GlA HO HO l l OA OA l l
O L O LU UO O NG BlE NG BlE N N O O NG TY NG TY GlA GlA
Ty gia giao ngay coa dong bang Anb
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Khoa Ti Chnh Doanh Nghip
B mn Ti Chnh Quc T
Bi 4: T gi hi oi 2
l992 l994 l996 l998
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-20
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Fban tram tbay doi bang nam
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l992 l994 l996 l998
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Khoa Ti Chnh Doanh Nghip
B mn Ti Chnh Quc T
Bi 4: T gi hi oi 3
CAN BA CAN BA NG TY NG TY GlA GlA
Muc cuu ten te

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Khoa Ti Chnh Doanh Nghip
B mn Ti Chnh Quc T
Bi 4: T gi hi oi 4
CA CA C NHAN TO C NHAN TO A A NH H NH HU UO O NG NG E E N TY N TY GlA GlA
1. Ty le lam phat tng oi
2. Lai suat tng oi
3. Thu nhap tng oi
4. Kiem soat cua chnh phu
5. Ky vong
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Tac ong cua viec gia tang lam phat cua My
en gia tr can bang cua ong bang Anh
Tac ong cua s gia tang lai suat My
en gia tr can bang cua ong bang Anh
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Khoa Ti Chnh Doanh Nghip
B mn Ti Chnh Quc T
Bi 4: T gi hi oi 5
Tac ong gia tang thu nhap cua My
len gia tr can bang cua ong bang Anh
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So Ioong dong bang
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2 2
Chnh phu cua nc ngoai co the tac ong en ty gia
can bang qua :
1. Ap at nhng rao can ve ngoai hoi
2. Ap at nhng rao can ve ngoai thng
3. Can thiep vao th trng ngoai hoi
4. Tac ong en nhng bien ong v mo nh
lam phat, lai suat, va thu nhap quoc dan
Th trng ngoai hoi phan ng lai vi cac thong tin
trong tng lai co lien quan en ty gia.
V du : tin ve gia tang lam phat tiem an My co the lam
nhng nha au c ban o la do d kien ong o la se giam
gia trong tng lai. ieu nay gay ap lc giam gia tr cua
ong o la ngay lap tc.
Ky Ky vo vo ng ng
Khoa Ti Chnh Doanh Nghip
B mn Ti Chnh Quc T
Bi 4: T gi hi oi 6
To To m m l l c c ca ca c c ye ye u u to to co co the the ta ta c c o o ng ng e e n n ty ty
Chonh och um phut
Chonh och um phut
Chonh och tho nhup
Chonh och tho nhup
Nhong go hun muo
dch cou chnh pho
Nhong go hun muo
dch cou chnh pho
Chonh och u sout
Chonh och u sout
Nhong go hun cho
choyon von
Nhong go hun cho
choyon von
Cuo hung hou
nooc ngou cou
co dun My
Nhu cau cua c
dan nc ngoai
oi vi hang hoa
My
Cuo hung hou
nooc ngou cou
co dun My
Nhu cau cua c
dan nc ngoai
oi vi hang hoa
My
Cau ngoai te
cua c dan
My
Cong
ngou to
Cau ngoai te
cua c dan
My
Cong
ngou to
Cau chng khoan
nc ngoai cua c
dan My
Cuo cou co dun
nooc ngou vo
chong khoun My
Cau chng khoan
nc ngoai cua c
dan My
Cuo cou co dun
nooc ngou vo
chong khoun My
TY GIA
HOI OAI
TY GIA
HOI OAI
Cac yco to tai cbnb
Cac yco to Iicn qoan dcn tboong mai
Cau ngoai te
cua c dan
My
Cong
ngou to
Cau ngoai te
cua c dan
My
Cong
ngou to
CA CA C HE C HE THO THO NG TY NG TY GIA GIA HO HO I I OA OA I I
He He tho tho ng ty ng ty gia gia ho ho i i oa oa i co i co nh nh
He He tho tho ng ty ng ty gia gia ho ho i i oa oa i tha i tha no no i t i t do do
He He tho tho ng ty ng ty gia gia ho ho i i oa oa i hon h i hon h p gi p gi a co a co
nh va nh va tha tha no no i i
He thong ty gu ho dou co d{nh
Ty gia hoi oai hoac c gi khong oi hoac ch
c cho phep dao ong trong mot pham vi rat hep.
Neu mot ty gia hoi oai bat au dao ong qua
nhieu, cac chnh phu co the can thiep e duy tr ty
gia hoi oai trong vong gii han cua pham vi nay.
Khoa Ti Chnh Doanh Nghip
B mn Ti Chnh Quc T
Bi 4: T gi hi oi 7
T 1944 en 1971, ty gia hoi oai c co nh
theo mot he thong hoach nh tai hoi ngh Bretton
Woods.
Moi ong tien c nh gia theo vang. V tat ca
cac ong tien eu c nh gia theo vang, gia tr
cua chung oi vi nhau co nh.
Cac chnh phu a can thiep vao cac th trng
ngoai hoi e am bao ty gia hoi oai khong dao
ong qua 1% cao hn hay thap hn ty gia a nh
ban au.
Hoi ngh Bretton Woods (Ky nguyen B.W.)
Hiep nh Smithsonian
My co tham hut can can mau dch, ieu nay cho thay gia
tr cua ong o la qua cao.
Vao nam 1971, gia tr cua mot vai ong tien can c ieu
chnh e tai lap mot dong thanh toan can bang hn gia
cac nc.
Thang 12/1971, hiep nh Smithsonian c thiet lap a
yeu cau ong o la My giam gia khoang 8% so vi cac
ong tien khac.
bien o cua dao ong gia tr cua cac ong tien c ni
rong en 2,25% cua ty gia an nh.
Thang 3 nam 1973, hiep nh Smithsonian cham dt
Ty gia se c cac lc th trng an nh ma
khong co s can thiep cua chnh phu.
He He tho tho ng ng ty ty gu gu ho ho d dou ou thu thu no no t tu u do do
THUA THUA N L N L I I
Duy tr s on nh chung
cua the gii
Giam bt ap lc cho
NHTW
Nang cao hieu qua cua
th trng tai chnh
Ngan can s lay lan cua
cac can benh kinh te
BA BA T L T L I I
Lam tram trong them cac
van e kinh te cua mot
quoc gia.
Khoa Ti Chnh Doanh Nghip
B mn Ti Chnh Quc T
Bi 4: T gi hi oi 8
He thong ty gu hon hop guu co
d{nh vu thu no
He thong dai bang ty gia
He thong ty gia con ran tien te
He thong ty gia hoi oai tha noi co quan ly
Che o ty gia chuan tien te
CHE CHE O O TY TY GIA GIA CHAU CHAU AU AU - - ERM ERM
Che o ty gia chau Au (European Exchange
Rate Mechanism ERM) la mot thong c
Cong ong Kinh Te chau Au a ra vao thang 3
nam 1979;
la mot phan cua He thong tien te chau Au
(European Monetary System EMS) e cat
giam nhng bien ong cua ty gia hoi oai nham
at c s ben vng ve tien te chau Au trong
mot no lc e at en mot ong tien chung,
ong Euro, se thc hien vao thang 01 nam 1999.
Khoa Ti Chnh Doanh Nghip
B mn Ti Chnh Quc T
Bi 4: T gi hi oi 9
ERM da tren khai niem ve bien o ty gia
hoi oai co nh nhng ty gia th c bien
ong trong nhng bien o nay.
Trc khi ong Euro ra i, ty gia c xac
nh da tren c s ong ECU (mot n v
o lng cua chau Au) co gia tr c xac
nh da tren trong so cua ong tien cac
nc thanh vien.
ng gii han cua ty gia song phng c
tnh toan da tren c s cua ty gia hoi oai
trung tam theo ong ECU va cac ong tien
c dao ong trong bien o la 2,25% so vi
gii han di va tren (tr ong lira cua Y vi
bien o cho phep la 6%).
Nhng can thiep va viec sap xep cac khoan
vay se gi cho ong tien cac nc thanh vien
khoi nhng bien ong thai qua.
A
1,98
2,0
F
G
D
C
B
S($/)
Thang
1 2 3
He thong ty gia con ran tien te
Khoa Ti Chnh Doanh Nghip
B mn Ti Chnh Quc T
Bi 4: T gi hi oi 10
He thong ty gia tha noi co quan ly
He thong nam au o gia co nh va tha noi t do.
Giong he thong tha noi t do iem cac ty gia
c cho phep dao ong hang ngay va khong co
cac bien o chnh thc.
Giong he thong co nh iem cac chnh phu co
the va oi khi a can thiep e tranh ong tien nc
ho khong i qua xa theo mot hng nao o.
Ty gia hoi
oai co nh
Ty gia hoi
oai co nh
Con ran
tien te
Con ran
tien te
Tha noi
co quan ly
Tha noi
co quan ly
Dai bang
ty gia
Dai bang
ty gia
Tha noi
t do
Tha noi
t do
Tnh linh hoat tang dan
cua cac he thong ty gia
Can thiep cua chnh phu trong he thong ty gia
hoi oai co quan ly
Can thiep trc tiep
Can thiep gian tiep thong qua chnh
sach cua chnh phu
Can thiep gian tiep qua cac hang rao
cua chnh phu
Khoa Ti Chnh Doanh Nghip
B mn Ti Chnh Quc T
Bi 4: T gi hi oi 11
Can thiep trc tiep
Phng phap can thiep trc tiep cua NHTW e buoc
ong noi te giam gia la ban noi te ra th trng, oi
ong noi te lay cac ngoai te khac trong th trng
ngoai hoi.
Can thiep khong at muc tieu
Can thiep at muc tieu
Can thiep khong vo hieu hoa
Can thiep vo hieu hoa
Can thiep at muc tieu va khong at muc tieu
Can thiep at muc tieu khi s can thiep cua
NHTW phat huy tac dung hoac tham ch tac
ong manh en th trng theo nhng muc tieu
ma NHTW mong muon.
Can thiep khong at muc tieu th ngc lai
khih nhng can thiep cua NHTW khong phat
huy tac dung.
Can thiep khong vo hieu hoa so vi
can thiep vo hieu hoa
NHTW can thiep vao th trng hoi oai ma
khong ieu chnh s thay oi trong mc cung
tien te c goi la can thiep khong vo hieu hoa.
NHTW can thiep vo hieu hoa bang cach ap
dung ong thi cac giao dch trong th trng
ngoai hoi va cac hoat ong tren th trng m.
Khoa Ti Chnh Doanh Nghip
B mn Ti Chnh Quc T
Bi 4: T gi hi oi 12
Can thiep gian tiep thong qua chnh
sach cua chnh phu
NHTW co the tac ong en gia tr ong noi te mot
cach gian tiep bang cach tac ong en cac yeu to co
anh hng en ong noi te.
Th du, NHTW co the co gang ha thap lai suat noi te
e lam nan long cac nha au t nc ngoai trong viec
au t vao chng khoan trong nc, do o tao ap lc
giam gia ong noi te.
Can thiep gian tiep qua cac
hang rao cua chnh phu
Chnh phu cung co the tac ong mot cach gian tiep en cac
ty gia hoi oai bang cach ap at cac hang rao oi vi tai
chnh va mau dch quoc te.
Th du, neu chnh phu My muon tang gia ong o la, ho co
the anh thue tren hang nhap nham lam giam nhap khau.
Hanh ong nay se lam giam nhu cau cua My oi vi cac
ngoai te va tao mot ap lc tang gia ong o la.
Tu Tu c c d do o ng ng cu cu u u ch chI Inh nh phu phu d de e n n ty ty gu gu
Thue
quan,
han
nghach
Cac chnh sach tai khoa
va tien te cua chnh phu
Cac chnh sach tai khoa
va tien te cua chnh phu
Ty le lai suat
tng ng
Ty le lai suat
tng ng
Ty le lam phat
tng ng
Ty le lam phat
tng ng
Mc o thu nhap
quoc gia tng ng
Mc o thu nhap
quoc gia tng ng
Dong chay von
quoc te
Dong chay von
quoc te
Ty gia hoi oai
Ty gia hoi oai Thng mai
quoc te
Thng mai
quoc te
S can thiep cua
chnh phu
S can thiep cua
chnh phu
Sc hut cua cac
hang hoa mua ban
quoc te
Sc hut cua cac
hang hoa mua ban
quoc te
Cac
luat
thue
Sc hut cua cac
chng khoan giao
dch quoc te
Sc hut cua cac
chng khoan giao
dch quoc te
Chnh phu mua va
ban tien te