Cat Modeling 2014:

ADAPTING FOR TODAY - PREPARING FOR TOMORROW

Portofino Bay Hotel, Orlando, FL, February 11-13, 2014
PROGRAM AGENDA MONDAY, FEBRUARY 10, 2014
1:00 p.m. ISCM Golf Outing - Shingle Creek Golf Club 2:00 p.m. ISCM Miniature Golf Outing 9:00 p.m. ISCM Board Meeting - Verona I & II

TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 11, 2014

7:00 a.m. Cat Modeling Registration - Tuscan Foyer Breakfast - Tuscan I & II - Sponsored by 8:30 a.m. General Session Tuscan III & IV Welcome and Introduction Franklin W. Nutter, President, RAA Carl G. Hedde, Senior Vice President, Head of Risk Accumulation, Munich Re America 8:45 a.m. EventMobi: A Mobile App to Help You Get the Most Out of the RAA Conference Tuscan III & IV
This session will demonstrate the conference mobile app that contains not only the conference agenda, maps, speaker profiles, and event information, but also enables conference attendees to dialogue with RAA Conference organizers, ask questions and provide immediate feedback via confidential polls and surveys.

Nicholas F. DiMuzio, Vice President Enterprise Risk Aggregation, XL Group Elizabeth H. Edelstein, Vice President, Reinsurance, JLT Towers Re Randall K. Law, Vice President - Research & Development, ACE Tempest Re 9:15 a.m. 9:45 a.m. 2013 Worldwide Catastrophe Events - Year in Review - Tuscan III & IV Carl G. Hedde, Senior Vice President, Head of Risk Accumulation, Munich Re America Disaster Consequences & Why They Will Continue to Rise - Tuscan III & IV
This presentation will present a typology of disaster consequences, review the broad system trends that foretell ever rising future disaster losses, present an inventory of the tools available to society to reduce consequences, and discuss the suite of human failures that keep us on a course of increased losses.

Dennis S. Mileti, PhD, Director Emeritus, Natural Hazards Center, University of Colorado at Boulder 10:45 a.m. Networking Break - Tuscan Foyer - Sponsored by

Reinsurance Association of America Reinsurance Education Institute

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Cat Modeling 2014:

ADAPTING FOR TODAY - PREPARING FOR TOMORROW
Portofino Bay Hotel, Orlando, FL, February 11-13, 2014
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 11, 2014 (CONTINUED)
11:15 a.m. Seeing Climate, Seeing Change - Tuscan III & IV
Mark Twain once said, climate is what you expect, weather is what you get. But what happens when the climate is changing? This talk explores the connection between climate and weather and presents the latest data on changing extreme events in the United States. It also looks at the emerging field of attribution science a field that uses climate models to quantitatively understand the role global warming plays in a specific extreme weather event.

Heidi Cullen, PhD, Vice President and Chief Climatologist, Climate Central

12:15 p.m. Lunch - Tuscan I & II - Sponsored by 1:30 p.m. Breakout Sessions Severe Convective Storms (Track: Science) Tuscan III & IV
This session will cover the severe convective storm phenomenology, climate and trends for the U.S. WeatherPredict researchers will illustrate the important elements of climate scale and weather variability to better understand what drives the recent changes in severe convective storm activity and what conditions allow current activity to persist.

Moderator: Craig W. Tillman, President, WeatherPredict Consulting Panelists: David Bachiochi, PhD, Sr Scientist & Regional Mgr, WeatherPredict Consulting David Hamilton, Senior Scientist, WeatherPredict Consulting Sandy: One Year Later (Track: Underwriting) Venetian IV
This session focuses on the lost communities of Sandy and how those communities are changing.

Anthony MacDonald, Director, Urban Coast Institute, Monmouth University Northridge 20th Anniversary and the Next Event (Track: Science) Venetian V
Dr. Rodriguez-Marek will discuss the engineering lessons from the 1994 Northridge Earthquake and on advances in seismic hazard assessment in the last 20 years.

Adrian Rodriguez-Marek, PhD, Associate Professor, Virginia Tech

2:30 p.m. 3:00 p.m.

Networking Break -Tuscan Foyer -Sponsored by Breakout Sessions Modeling 101: Wind and Earthquake (Track: Science) Venetian I Mark C. Bove, Senior Research Meteorologist, Risk Accumulation Unit, Munich Re America Validating Catastrophe Models within the Internal Model (Track: Science/Underwriting) Tuscan III & IV
Catastrophe models are increasingly the focus of regulatory attention. This session will address the question of how much validation is necessary. The discussion will focus on finding the middle ground between the vendors know exactly what theyre doing and too much validation is barely enough.

David Clouston, Deputy Head, Exposure Management & Reinsurance, Lloyds

Reinsurance Association of America Reinsurance Education Institute

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Cat Modeling 2014:

ADAPTING FOR TODAY - PREPARING FOR TOMORROW
Portofino Bay Hotel, Orlando, FL, February 11-13, 2014
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 11, 2014 (CONTINUED)
3:00 p.m. Breakout Sessions (continued) Capital Markets (Track: Underwriting) Venetian III
This session will examine trends in the insurance-linked securities (ILS) and alternative risk transfer market, including basic constructs, entry of new investors and "market snapshot," participants' motivations, recent impact on traditional reinsurers and the outlook for the sector.

Matthew B. Stern, Director, Capital Markets and Treasury Solutions, Deutsche Bank Securities IBHS The Impact of Wind on Roofs (repeated on Wednesday at 1:30 p.m.) (Track: Science/Underwriting) Ligurian I
This session will explore IBHS ground-breaking research into wind performance of asphalt shingles, which is designed to: 1) reduce losses and replacement rates from wind damage; 2) provide more information about vulnerabilities; 3) provide actionable data for carriers; and, 4) improve building codes and product standards.

Anne D. Cope, PhD, Vice President of Research, IBHS Research Center Cat Market Study (Track: Underwriting) Venetian V
This session will provide a market update post 1/1 renewals. It will offer a primary insurance company perspective on catastrophes, changes in attachment points and other relevant market issues.

David L. Duffy, Managing Director, Guy Carpenter & Company 3:45 p.m. 4:00 p.m. Networking Break - Tuscan Foyer - Sponsored by Breakout Sessions Using Robust Simulation to Characterize Uncertainties in Catastrophe Loss Assessments (Track: Science/Technology) Ligurian I
This session will address characterization of uncertainty in catastrophe models using a robust simulation approach. Robust simulation is an analytic framework that uses nonparametric statistics and controlled simulations to minimize the need for complex classical statistical treatments used in catastrophe modeling. Such an approach consciously acknowledges the scientific challenges when adopting diverse but plausible models, and makes the best effort to preserve the coherency in models and assumptions. It allows for evaluation and revealing of the uncertainties associated with these models in the risk analysis results and enables the examination of the exogenous uncertainties when new or alternative models become available.

Yajie J. Lee, Technical Director, Earthquake Risk Services, ImageCat Global Flood Risk Modeling (Track: Science) Venetian IV
This session will present methodologies for modeling correlated flood, storm surge and tropical cyclone risk on a global scale. Data availability and the trade-off between resolution and accuracy will be covered. Risk hot spots will be identified by overlaying hazard maps on a global exposure data set.

Dag Lohmann, PhD, CEO, KatRisk Understanding & Modeling Risk in a World of Increasing Climatic Variability (Track: Underwriting) Venetian III
Given the dynamic weather conditions and climate change in the U.S., its critical for insurers to have the right tools to make accurate underwriting, actuarial and claims modeling decisions. Through scientific insights, this session will address methods to more accurately determine risk location assignments with highly granular hazard risk modelswith a particular emphasis on flood riskfor improved underwriting.

Howard Botts, PhD, VP, Chief Scientist, CoreLogic David Rogers, VP, Product Management, CoreLogic
Reinsurance Association of America Reinsurance Education Institute Page 3 of 9

Cat Modeling 2014:

ADAPTING FOR TODAY - PREPARING FOR TOMORROW
Portofino Bay Hotel, Orlando, FL, February 11-13, 2014
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 11, 2014 (CONTINUED)
4:00 p.m. Breakout Sessions (continued) Model Development and Where They Diverge (Track: Underwriting) Venetian V
This session will help underwriters, risk managers and other consumers of cat modeling results understand why results can vary significantly in different vendor models despite their foundation in similar source data. Considering each of the model components, the presentation will explore key model assumptions, demonstrate the limitations of available data, and highlight the many areas where model results can diverge.

Roger Grenier, PhD, Director, Cat Research and Development, Liberty Mutual Insurance IPCC 5th Assessment Report: Ramifications for the Insurance Industry Venetian I (Track: Underwriting)
This collaborative analysis of the most recent IPCC report will identify the implications for the insurance industry. Climate experts with insurance industry background will brief participants on the reports content, overall reliability of statements and how those conclusions might be considered in a risk management context.

Dan Dick, Executive Managing Director, Aon Benfield Analytics Dail Rowe, PhD, Senior Scientist and Regional Manager, WeatherPredict Consulting Hurricane Risk: A Reinsurer's Perspective Venetian II (Track: Underwriting)
Hurricane is arguably one of the most sophisticated and best understood perils from a modelling standpoint. However, with increasing sophistication come new challenges from a users perspective. This session examines some of the challenges in forming ones own view of risk, and touches on some of the current issues, including lessons from Sandy, clustering and rate sets.

Kirsten Mitchell-Wallace, PhD, Head of Cat Pricing and Methodology, SCOR Switzerland AG

4:45 6:45 p.m.

Adjourn to Reception - Citrus Piazza - Sponsored by

WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 12, 2014

7:15 a.m. 8:15 a.m.

Breakfast - Tuscan I & II - Sponsored by General Session Tuscan III & IV International Society of Catastrophe Managers (ISCM) Maria Kovas, Director of IT Applications, Toa Reinsurance, ISCM President

Reinsurance Association of America Reinsurance Education Institute

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Cat Modeling 2014:

ADAPTING FOR TODAY - PREPARING FOR TOMORROW
Portofino Bay Hotel, Orlando, FL, February 11-13, 2014
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 12, 2014 (CONTINUED)
8:45 a.m. How Big Should My Water Wings Be? Coastal Risk Awareness and Management Tuscan III & IV
Predicting and preparing for the interactions between climate-related vulnerabilities and other stressors in the coastal zone pose numerous analytical challenges, particularly given the current lack of quantitative multi-stressor vulnerability assessments. This discussion will address the perception and management of risk by examining relevant factors ranging from the geophysical to the political. How we approach risk now will shape our future exposure, and the costs associated with major environmental events.

Holly A. Bamford, PhD, Assistant Administrator, NOAA National Ocean Service 9:45 a.m. 2014 Model Comparison Severe Convective Storms - Tuscan III & IV
This years model comparison will focus on the increasingly important peril of Severe Convective Storms. The presentation will select highlights from three models using exposures in three US geographical regions: Tornado Alley, Ohio River Valley and the Southeast. Both realistic, mixed exposure and grid-based, constant exposure portfolios will be utilized to identify similarities and differences in hazard assumptions and loss accumulations.

David Keeton, President, Salient Risk Advisory Services 10:30 a.m. Networking Break - Tuscan Foyer - Sponsored by 11:00 a.m. Panel Presentation on the New Modeling Platform Changes Tuscan III & IV
How new modeling platform changes may impact the insurer, reinsurer, intermediary & rating agency.

Moderator: Panelists:

Dan Dick, Executive Vice President, Aon Benfield Richard Attanasio, Vice President, AM Best Eric M. Nelson, VP of Enterprise Catastrophe Strategy & Analysis, Travelers Hjrtur Thrinsson, PhD, Senior Corporate Underwriter, Munich Re

12:00 noon Lunch - Tuscan I & II - Sponsored by 1:30 p.m. Breakout Sessions TRIA and Terrorism: Landscape of Terrorism (Track: Underwriting) Venetian IV
The global terrorism landscape is changing. Al Qaeda central has been rendered less effective, but other affiliated transnational terrorist groups have emerged. In the face of political and economic changes, right wing and militia groups are attracting new members. Terrorism is still a global and domestic threat. In 2014, there will be battle in Congress over the renewal of TRIA. This changing landscape will affect every insurer.

Peter C. Thomas, Chief Risk Officer, Willis Re Global Advances in Location Analytics for Risk Management (Track: Technology) Venetian I
Geography and robust information about the location of insured assets has a profound influence the decisions of managing risk. New applications of location analytics supplement the traditional intuition in the analysis and understanding of the geographic attributes that produce hazards and influence the probability and scale of loss. Leveraged from an internal or external GIS infrastructure platform, organizations now have access to a robust suite of tools for advanced analytics, and infrastructure which supports effective content management and collaboration across the enterprise. You need to understand how today's disruptive technologies and GIS are being applied to risk management in order to exploit it. Please join us for a discussion on how mapping visualization and spatial analytics is being applied to provide a 360 view of risk management across the enterprise. Lester Pierre, CEO, Wall Street Network Reinsurance Association of America Reinsurance Education Institute Page 5 of 9

Cat Modeling 2014:

ADAPTING FOR TODAY - PREPARING FOR TOMORROW
Portofino Bay Hotel, Orlando, FL, February 11-13, 2014
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 12, 2014 (CONTINUED)
1:30 p.m. Breakout Sessions (continued) European Floods (Track: Underwriting) Venetian II
With its frequency, extent of losses and diversity of coverage flood is the most dynamic peril in Europe. Data availability, complexity of processes and quantification and implementation of uncertainty are some of the challenges we need to face.

Adam Podlaha, PhD, Head of Impact Forecasting, Aon Benfield Advanced Modeling: Earthquake and Wind (Track: Science) Venetian III Federico Waisman, PhD, Executive Director, Ariel Reinsurance IBHS The Impact of Wind on Roofs (Repeat) (Track: Science/Underwriting) Ligurian I
This session will explore IBHS ground-breaking research into wind performance of asphalt shingles, which is designed to: 1) reduce losses and replacement rates from wind damage; 2) provide more information about vulnerabilities; 3) provide actionable data for carriers; and, 4) improve building codes and product standards.

Anne D. Cope, Vice President of Research, IBHS Research Center The Benefits of Open Source Platforms in Practice (Track: Technology) Venetian V
This session will address: New technology platforms and solutions; Greater transparency: identifying uncertainty, sources of sensitivity and their consequences; Enabling a community: cost and choice benefits.

Dickie Whitaker, Project Director, Oasis Loss Modelling Framework 2:15 p.m. 2:30 p.m. Networking Break - Tuscan Foyer - Sponsored by Modeling Company Breakout Sessions I Shake, Rattle, and Roll: Canadian Earthquake Risk Venetian V
Canada may not come to mind when one thinks of global earthquake hot spots, but its location on the Ring of Fire and an active seismic zone in the St. Lawrence River valley hints at the potential for a major quake lurking beneath the surface. Canadian insurers and regulators are taking the threat seriously and AIRs Earthquake Model for Canada has been a central player in the discussion about Canadas preparedness for a major quake through its partnership with the Insurance Bureau of Canada. Session attendees will preview the 2014 update to the model which includes the latest seismic and geologic data available for Canada and introduces new capabilities for loss estimates from secondary perils like tsunami, fire following, liquefaction and landslides.

Jay Guin, PhD, Senior Vice President, Research and Modeling, AIR Worldwide Arash Nasseri, PhD, Senior Engineer, AIR Worldwide European Windstorm Catastrophic Risk Venetian IV
EQECAT's upcoming extra-tropical cyclone model has broadened geographic coverage, expansion to include offshore wind farms and a storm frequency model informed by the latest climate research. This model will help re/insurers make more informed underwriting and portfolio management decisions.

Iain Willis, Product Manager, EQECAT U.S. Flood Modeling Venetian III Clare Salustro, Manager, Model Product Management, RMS
Reinsurance Association of America Reinsurance Education Institute Page 6 of 9

Cat Modeling 2014:

ADAPTING FOR TODAY - PREPARING FOR TOMORROW
Portofino Bay Hotel, Orlando, FL, February 11-13, 2014
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 12, 2014 (CONTINUED)

3:15 p.m. 3:30 p.m.

Networking Break - Tuscan Foyer - Sponsored by Modeling Company Breakout Sessions II If It Keeps on Rainin, Levees Goin to Break: US Flood Venetian V
Since the 1960s the insurance industry has viewed inland flooding as a peril that is difficult to insure profitably. Due to the heavy involvement in the private market by the US government and a lack of probabilistic modeling tools for this peril, the flood market has not been attractive for insurance pioneers and innovators. AIRs Inland Flood Model for the United States promises to be a game-changing advance in the markets ability to manage, transfer and underwrite coverage for flooding. In this session, attendees will get a preview of AIRs model due for release in 2014 and its advances in precipitation, hydraulic, flood protection and vulnerability modeling for a peril that causes more than $5 billion in economic loss each year.

Kiran Chinnayakanahalli, PhD, Scientist, AIR Worldwide Raulina Wojtkiewicz, Engineer, AIR Worldwide Lessons Learned from Thunderstorm/Tornado Hazard and Vulnerability Modeling of Individual Sites Venetian I & II
This session will discuss the methods, results, and lessons learned from thunderstorm and tornado analyses of constructed facilities located at numerous US and Canadian sites. The presentation will include site-specific wind hazard risk and uncertainty analysis; modeling of building/facility size and spatial distribution in the quantification of tornado strike risk; and methods that are used to develop structural fragilities for these hazards considering multiple failure modes.

Lawrence A. Twisdale, Jr. PhD, PE, Principal Engineer and Executive Vice President, Applied Research Associates Modeling US Earthquake: Its in the Details Venetian IV
EQECAT's US earthquake model includes a simulation-based financial loss model that produces outputs that lead to clearer risk management decisions. Enabling the better applications of sub-limits and subperil (shake, fire or sprinkler), a simulation model output can identify some of the biases inherent in the legacy models that impose mathematical probability distributions.

Maiclaire Bolton, Product Manager, EQECAT Modeling Terrorism Venetian III

An overview of the terrorism risk modeling process, how attack frequency and damages are determined, and how advances in risk modeling have empowered cat modelers to bolster their understanding of terrorism exposure, possible changes to TRIA, and the global terrorism risk environment.

Chris Folkman, Director, Model Product Management, RMS

4:15 p.m.

Networking Break - Tuscan Foyer - Sponsored by

Reinsurance Association of America Reinsurance Education Institute

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Cat Modeling 2014:

ADAPTING FOR TODAY - PREPARING FOR TOMORROW
Portofino Bay Hotel, Orlando, FL, February 11-13, 2014
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 12, 2014 (CONTINUED)
4:30 p.m. Modeling Company Breakout Sessions III If It Keeps on Rainin, Levees Goin to Break: US Flood Venetian V
Since the 1960s the insurance industry has viewed inland flooding as a peril that is difficult to insure profitably. Due to the heavy involvement in the private market by the US government and a lack of probabilistic modeling tools for this peril, the flood market has not been attractive for insurance pioneers and innovators. AIRs Inland Flood Model for the United States promises to be a game-changing advance in the markets ability to manage, transfer and underwrite coverage for flooding. In this session, attendees will get a preview of AIRs model due for release in 2014 and its advances in precipitation, hydraulic, flood protection and vulnerability modeling for a peril that causes more than $5 billion in economic loss each year.

Kiran Chinnayakanahalli, PhD, Scientist, AIR Worldwide Raulina Wojtkiewicz, Engineer, AIR Worldwide RQE For a Connected World Venetian IV
The RQE platform is designed to support the needs of re/insurers. Web services exposed with SOAP 1.2 support a variety of use cases from integration into a web-based underwriting dashboard to a multimodel platform solution. All of these workflows can be supported by the fully featured RQE platform.

Peter Beresford, Vice President, Product Management, EQECAT Cloud Computing: What Every Cat Modeler Should Know Venetian III Paris Georgallis, SVP, Cloud Platform Operations, RMS

5:15 Adjourn to Reception - Harbor Piazza - Sponsored by 7:15 p.m.

9:00 p.m. - ISCM After Dinner Lounge - Ligurian I 11:00 pm

Reinsurance Association of America Reinsurance Education Institute

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Cat Modeling 2014:

ADAPTING FOR TODAY - PREPARING FOR TOMORROW
Portofino Bay Hotel, Orlando, FL, February 11-13, 2014
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 13, 2014

7:30 a.m. 8:30 a.m.

Breakfast - Tuscan I & II - Sponsored by General Session Tuscan III & IV Model Comparison Presentations Severe Convective Storms
A brief overview of the model comparison will be presented, followed by a series of short, single topic presentations for vendors to answer key questions that emerged from the model comparison.

Moderator: David Keeton, President, Salient Risk Advisory Services Presenters: Matthew Nielsen, Director, Model Product Management, RMS David F. Smith, Senior Vice President, Model Development, EQECAT Scott Stransky, Senior Scientist, Research and Modeling, AIR Worldwide

10:30 a.m. Networking Break - Tuscan Foyer - Sponsored by 11:00 a.m. General Session Tuscan III & IV Model Comparison Panel Discussion
Discussion will continue to answer questions relating to the U.S. peril, Severe Convective Storms. Attendees will submit questions in advance via the electronic conference app or traditional handwritten notes. The focus will include the challenges of modeling this particular hazard, as well as loss aggregation challenges particular to this peril. Panelists will present their case for their approach to these increasingly important risk regions and peril.

Moderator: Federico Waisman, PhD, Executive Director, Ariel Reinsurance Panelists: Thomas Larsen, SVP, Product Management, EQECAT Matthew Nielsen, Director, Model Product Management, RMS Scott Stransky, Senior Scientist, Research and Modeling, AIR Worldwide 1:00 p.m. Wrap up and adjourn

Reinsurance Association of America Reinsurance Education Institute

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