Hero Supermarket

Rp2,655 - UNDERPERFORM
Financials
Year to 31 December 12A 13A 14CL 15CL 16CL
Revenue (Rpbn) 10,510 11,900 13,243 15,360 17,632
Rev forecast change (%) - - (5.4) (5.9) -
Net profit (Rpbn) 303 671 386 461 529
NP forecast change (%) - - (2.0) (3.0) -
EPS (Rp) 72.36 160.43 92.27 110.17 126.45
CL/consensus (2) (EPS%) - - 98 97 -
EPS growth (% YoY) - 121.7 (42.5) 19.4 14.8
PE (x) 36.7 16.5 28.8 24.1 21.0
Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ROE (%) 18.3 19.1 7.0 7.7 8.2
Net debt/equity (%) 51.6 (24.8) (14.7) (10.4) (2.1)
Source: CLSA
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Merlissa Trisno
merlissa.trisno@clsa.com
+62 21 2554 8821
Robert Pranata
+62 21 2554 8825
4 March 2014
Indonesia
Consumer
Reuters HERO.JK
Bloomberg HERO IJ
Priced on 28 February 2014
Jakarta Comp @ 4,620.2
12M hi/lo Rp5,101/2,400
12M price target Rp2,800
% potential +5%
Shares in issue 4,183.4m
Free float (est.) 17.0%
Market cap US$957m
3M average daily volume
Rp0.8bn (US$0.1m)
Major shareholders
Dairy Farm 80.8%
Hero Pusaka Sejati 2.7%
Stock performance (%)
1M 3M 12M
Absolute (1.7) 4.1 (44.0)
Relative (6.0) (2.6) (41.7)
Abs (US$) 3.4 5.5 (53.3)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1,400
2,750
4,100
5,450
6,800
Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13
Hero Supermarket (LHS)
Rel to Comp (RHS)
(Rp) (%)
Source: Bloomberg
www.clsa.com
C
o
m
p
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u
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Beyond supermarkets
Hero Supermarket (HERO IJ) reported in line result operationally in full-
year 2013, while managed to beat our expectation at bottom-line level
due to one-off gain from selling its headquarter. We highlight that they
focus on expanding its specialty store (Guardian) and at the same time
converting their large store into their own property. Though Guardian
generates better margin and return, contribution to companys sales is
still very minimal. We maintain U/PF due to rich valuation in the context
of moderate earnings growth outlook at 15% 2012-15CL Cagr
4Q13 result wrap
Hero reported in line result operationally (Ebit at 99% of CL forecast), yet
managed to beat our expectation at bottom line level (Net profit at 218% of
CL forecast) due to one-off gain from selling its headquarter. Stripping out
this gain, net profit was at 107% of CL forecast on the back of higher-than-
expected interest income. They were in huge net cash position of Rp1.3tn
(US$112m) as at end of 2013 post right issue and asset sale. Also worth to
highlight that Ikea store opening will be delayed to 4Q14 (from 3Q14)
Focusing on specialty store expansion
In 2013, the company recorded the highest store expansion at 77 net
opening; of which close to 75% was channelled through their specialty stores
format (mainly Guardian) given higher margin (Ebit margin at 7.6%, double
than large format stores) as well as ROA. Hero opened 50 Guardian stores in
2013, while only 5 Giant hypermarket stores during similar period. However,
specialty store contribution to companys sales is still minimal (below 10%)
Buying more property assets
The company managed to keep their rental expense flat at Rp249b in 2013.
This translates to declining rental/sales ratio to 2.1% in 2013, from 2.4% in
2012. We see that Hero was buying more property assets (in particular for
large store). Estimated capex/sqm (ex-land) jumped to Rp22.5m in 2013,
from Rp12.3m in 2012, on top of Ikea construction impact. This strategy
seems costly for the group as they acquired assets post property price rally
Re-iterate U/PF
We slightly cut earnings by 2-3% in 2014-15CL due to store mix change and
higher working capital requirement. We see limited upside given rich
valuation (trading at 29x 2014CL) in the context of moderate earnings growth
outlook at 15% 2012-15CL Cagr. We are BUYers at 20x 2015 PE.
Prepared for EV: hendrasetiono@semestaindovest.co.id
Beyond supermarkets Hero Supermarket - U-PF
4 March 2014 merlissa.trisno@clsa.com 2
4Q13 result wrap
Hero reported in line result operationally (Ebit at 99% of CL forecast), yet
managed to beat our expectation at bottom line level (Net profit at 218% of
CL forecast) due to one-off gain from selling its headquarter. Stripping out
this gain, net profit was at 107% of CL forecast on the back of higher-than-
expected interest income.
They were in huge net cash position of Rp1.3tn (US$112m) as at end of 2013
post right issue and asset sale. Management stated that Ikea store opening
will be in 4Q14 (from previous expectation of 3Q14)
Figure 1
Heros 4Q13 result summary
Income Statement, Rp bn 4Q12 3Q13 4Q13 Q/Q Y/Y 2012 2013 Y/Y 13CL % CL
Sales 2,680 3,368 2,983 (11%) 11% 10,510 11,900 13% 12,289 97%
COGS 2,047 2,644 2,184 (17%) 7% 8,073 9,053 12% 9,443 96%
Gross Profit 633 724 799 10% 26% 2,437 2,847 17% 2,846 100%
Operating Expense 512 623 674 8% 32% 1,996 2,423 21% 2,417 100%
EBIT 120 101 125 23% 4% 441 424 (4%) 429 99%
PBT 106 123 507 311% 379% 402 790 97% 410 193%
NPAT 86 97 453 364% 423% 303 671 122% 308 218%
NPAT excluding one off 86 97 111 14% 29% 303 330 9% 308 107%
Opex breakdown
Advertising 28 32 48 49% 70% 103 137 33% 137 100%
Salary 178 199 232 16% 30% 667 827 24% 827 100%
Rental 64 72 66 (8%) 3% 248 249 0% 249 100%
Financial Ratios
Gross Margin 23.6% 21.5% 26.8% 23.2% 23.9% 23.2%
Operating Margin 4.5% 3.0% 4.2% 4.2% 3.6% 3.5%
Pre-tax Margin 4.0% 3.7% 17.0% 3.8% 6.6% 3.3%
Net Margin 3.2% 2.9% 3.7% 2.9% 2.8% 2.5%
Ad/sales ratio 1.1% 1.0% 1.6% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1%
Salary/sales ratio 6.6% 5.9% 7.8% 6.3% 7.0% 6.7%
Rental/sales ratio 2.4% 2.1% 2.2% 2.4% 2.1% 2.0%
Source: CLSA
Figure 2
Sales growth trend
Source: CLSA, Company
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Large format Specialty format
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
Decelerating sales growth
in large format
Beat expectation due to
one-off gain from selling
its headquarter
Huge net cash position of
US$112m post right issue
and asset sale
Prepared for EV: hendrasetiono@semestaindovest.co.id
Beyond supermarkets Hero Supermarket - U-PF
4 March 2014 merlissa.trisno@clsa.com 3
We see decelerating sales growth in large format given more sensitive target
market (mid/low segment) toward inflation. On the flip side, specialty format
rebounded in 3Q13 as their target is more toward mid/up segment, on top of
the fact that Guardian opened the highest number of stores in 4Q13
Focusing on specialty store expansion
In 2013, the company recorded the highest store expansion at 77 net
opening; of which close to 75% was channelled through their specialty stores
format (mainly Guardian).
Figure 3
Store addition trend
Source: CLSA, Company
Figure 4
Store addition trend (estimated no. of sqm)
Source: CLSA, Company
Hero opened 50 Guardian stores in 2013, while only 5 Giant hypermarket
stores during similar period. This suggests their optimism on specialty stores
business given higher margin (Ebit margin at 7.6%, double than large format
stores).
However, the contribution from specialty store is still very minimal (below
10%) given the fact that hypermarket business still dominating store
expansion in sqm term due to its huge store size
3
5
7
11 11
16 9
9
3
1
7
5
25
15
11
25
35
50 18
8
1
7
19
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Supermarket Hypermarket Guardian Starmart (# stores)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Supermarket Hypermarket Guardian Starmart (# sqm)
Higher margin and return
for specialty stores
75% store addition
through their specialty
stores
Hypermarket still
dominating store
expansion in sqm term
Decelerating sales growth
in large format
Record high expansion
Contribution from
specialty stores still very
minimal
Prepared for EV: hendrasetiono@semestaindovest.co.id
Beyond supermarkets Hero Supermarket - U-PF
4 March 2014 merlissa.trisno@clsa.com 4
Ebit/asset ratio is also much higher for specialty format at 12% (vs. 6.6% for
large format) as of 2013. The ratio has been decelerating due to companys
strategy to own the property asset
Figure 5 Figure 6
Sales breakdown Ebit margin trend
Source: CLSA, Company Source: CLSA, Company
Figure 7
Ebit/asset ratio
Source: CLSA, Company
Buying more property assets
From cost perspective, the pressure came mainly from salary, while rental
cost stays flat on yearly basis. Rental/sales ratio declined to 2.1% in 2013,
from 2.4% in 2012. We believe that Hero was buying some more property
assets (in particular for large store format) instead of paying rental.
Estimated capex/sqm (ex-land) jumped to Rp22.5m in 2013, from Rp12.3m
in 2012, on top of impact from Ikea construction
Strategically, this is probably good in the midst of shifting bargaining power
from retailer to land owner. However, buying assets post property price rally
seems relatively costly for the company. It is not the best use of cash, in our
view
92% 92% 92% 93% 93% 92%
8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Large format Specialty
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
1Q12 1H12 9M12 FY12 1Q13 1H13 9M13 FY13
Large format Specialty format
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Large format Specialty format
Specialty formats ROA is
doubled than large format
Rental cost stay flat on
yearly basis
Costly strategy, not the
best use of cash
Prepared for EV: hendrasetiono@semestaindovest.co.id
Beyond supermarkets Hero Supermarket - U-PF
4 March 2014 merlissa.trisno@clsa.com 5
Figure 8 Figure 9
Rental and rental/sales ratio Estimated capex per sqm (ex-land)
Source: CLSA, Company Source: CLSA, Company
Also, as the company expanding into outside Java cities and competition
getting more intense in Jakarta, they require greater working capital. Note
that outside Java represents a mere 10-15% of companys sales at this
moment.
Though bargaining power over supplier improved over time, this still could not
cover higher inventory days trend. Companys working capital days have been
narrowing from (-17 days) in 2005 to 5 days in 2013
Figure 10
Working capital days trend
Source: CLSA, Company
In hypermarket business, they need to compete with Carrefour which has
sizeable market share in Jakarta and with Hypermart under Lippo group
which aggressively expanding into outer Java regions. Last year, Hypermart
open 19 stores while Hero opened only 5 stores and we still expect similar
trend going forward
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Rental expense, LHS
Rental/sales, RHS
(Rp bn)
0
5
10
15
20
25
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
(Rp
mn/sqm)
(20)
(15)
(10)
(5)
0
5
10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
(days)
Increasing working
capital days trend
Tough competition in
hypermarket business
Prepared for EV: hendrasetiono@semestaindovest.co.id
Beyond supermarkets Hero Supermarket - U-PF
4 March 2014 merlissa.trisno@clsa.com 6
Figure 11
Hypermarket market share trend
Companies (brand) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Carrefour SA (Carrefour) 49.6 56.4 53.2 53.6 56.2 51.3 48.1 45.0 39.9 36.4
Matahari Putra Prima Tbk PT (Hypermart) 5.7 17.5 23.0 24.1 24.4 27.3 29.3 30.0 32.8 35.5
Hero (Giant) 22.5 23.9 23.1 21.7 18.9 20.9 21.8 23.3 25.3 25.9
Lotte Group (Lottemart) - - - - - - 0.3 1.2 1.5 1.8
Lucky Strategies PT (Grand Lucky) - - - 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4
Wicaksana Overseas International PT 6.0 2.2 0.7 - - - - - - -
Alfa Retailindo Tbk PT 16.3 - - - - - - - - -
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Euromonitor
Figure 12
Supermarket market share trend
Companies (brand) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Delhaize Group SA (Superindo) 8.9 5.7 5.6 5.4 6.0 5.4 5.0 6.6 6.6 6.9
Hero (Giant and Hero) 10.2 8.3 6.4 5.6 5.7 5.3 5.2 5.2 4.8 5.1
Matahari Putra Prima Tbk PT (Foodmart) 6.0 3.2 2.5 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
Tawa Supermarket Inc - - - - 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3
Macan Yaohan Indonesia PT 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1
Carrefour SA (Carrefour) - - - - 1.8 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.1
Supra Boga Lestari Tbk PT (Ranch, Farmers) - - - - - 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0
Seven & I Holdings Co Ltd (7-Eleven) - - 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7
Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk PT - - - 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Alfa Retailindo Tbk PT 3.5 9.8 9.0 7.1 - - - - - -
Metro Supermarket Realty Tbk PT 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 - - - - - -
Millennium Retailing Inc 0.8 0.6 - - - - - - - -
Others 68.9 70.8 74.3 77.1 81.2 82.2 82.9 81.4 81.5 81.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Euromonitor
Of their store concepts, Hero has good potential to increase their market
share in Guardian format given aggressive store expansion of ~50 stores pa.
Boston, under Matahari, is also getting more aggressive with around 17 new
store opening last year. But their size is still much smaller compared to
Guardian
Despite stronger growth outlook and brighter potential of Guardian,
contribution is still pretty small in the near-term. As of 2013, Guardian and
Starmart account for 8% of companys total sales and 16% of total Ebit
Re-iterate U/PF
We slightly cut earnings by 2-3% in 2014-15CL due to store mix change
(more toward specialty stores) and higher working capital requirement.
Higher specialty stores number however lead to lower sqm as compared to its
hypermarket
We see limited upside given rich valuation (trading at 29x 2014CL) in the
context of moderate earnings growth outlook at 15% 2012-15CL Cagr.
Deleveraging story is over and Ikea contribution is still small in the near-
term. We are BUYers at 20x 2015 PE
Guardian has good
potential to increase
market share
Yet contribution is still
pretty small in the near
term
Prepared for EV: hendrasetiono@semestaindovest.co.id
Beyond supermarkets Hero Supermarket - U-PF
4 March 2014 merlissa.trisno@clsa.com 7
Figure 13 Figure 14
Net gearing Ikea contribution to sales
Source: CLSA, Company Source: CLSA
Figure 15 Figure 16
12-mth forward PE 12-mth forward EV/Ebitda
Source: CLSA Source: CLSA
Figure 17
Retailer peers valuation
PER, x EV/EBITDA, x ROE (%) Ebit margin
(%)
201
2-
15CL
PEG Market cap
2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 EPS
Cagr
x US$ mn
Hero Supermarket 28 23 11 9 8 9 4 4 16% 1.4 953
Ace Hardware 26 21 18 14 24 24 14 15 14% 1.5 1,177
Mitra Adiperkasa 27 22 10 9 16 17 8 8 6% 3.8 982
Supra Boga Lestari 21 17 11 9 12 13 3 4 17% 1.0 87
Modern International 43 29 16 13 6 9 9 9 13% 2.3 251
Sumber Alfaria 27 22 10 8 23 25 2 2 14% 1.6 1,480
Matahari Department
Store
24 18 16 13 n/a n/a 26 26 39% 0.5 3,325
Average 28 22 13 11 15 16 10 10 17% 1.3 1,179
Source: CLSA, Bloomberg
40%
17%
20%
52%
-25%
-15%
-10%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014CL 15CL
(%)
0%
1%
4%
7%
7%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2013 14CL 15CL 16CL 17CL
(%)
min6.2x
19.1x
avg32.0x
41.0x
max68.5x
400.0
1,400.0
2,400.0
3,400.0
4,400.0
5,400.0
Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Jan14 Jul14
min3.1x
8.2x
avg13.3x
22.6x
max31.9x
260.0
1,260.0
2,260.0
3,260.0
4,260.0
5,260.0
6,260.0
7,260.0
8,260.0
Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Jan14 Jul14
Prepared for EV: hendrasetiono@semestaindovest.co.id
Beyond supermarkets Hero Supermarket - U-PF
4 March 2014 merlissa.trisno@clsa.com 8
Summary financials
Year to 31 December 2012A 2013A 2014CL 2015CL 2016CL
Summary P&L forecast (Rpbn)
Revenue 10,510 11,900 13,243 15,360 17,632
Op Ebitda 575 611 816 988 1,168
Op Ebit 441 424 470 589 692
Interest income 2 54 44 25 14
Interest expense (42) (46) 0 0 0
Other items 0 359 - - -
Profit before tax 402 790 515 615 705
Taxation (99) (119) (129) (154) (176)
Minorities/Pref divs - - - - -
Net profit 303 671 386 461 529
Summary cashflow forecast (Rpbn)
Operating profit 441 424 470 589 692
Operating adjustments - - - - -
Depreciation/amortisation 134 187 346 399 476
Working capital changes 256 (380) (105) (101) (97)
Net interest/taxes/other (205) 313 (84) (129) (163)
Net operating cashflow 625 543 627 758 908
Capital expenditure (1,201) (1,322) (1,113) (955) (1,411)
Free cashflow (576) (778) (485) (196) (503)
Acq/inv/disposals - - - - -
Int, invt & associate div - - - - -
Net investing cashflow (1,201) (1,322) (1,113) (955) (1,411)
Increase in loans 720 (1,104) - - -
Dividends 0 0 0 0 0
Net equity raised/other 0 2,961 - - -
Net financing cashflow 720 1,858 0 0 0
Incr/(decr) in net cash 145 1,079 (485) (196) (503)
Exch rate movements - - - - -
Opening cash 103 248 1,327 842 645
Closing cash 248 1,327 842 645 143
Summary balance sheet forecast (Rpbn)
Cash & equivalents 248 1,327 842 645 143
Debtors 258 293 326 378 434
Inventories 1,550 1,829 2,119 2,504 2,909
Other current assets 222 206 206 206 206
Fixed assets 2,766 3,930 4,697 5,252 6,187
Intangible assets 10 10 10 10 10
Other term assets 223 163 163 163 163
Total assets 5,277 7,758 8,362 9,158 10,052
Short-term debt 1,104 - - - -
Creditors 1,877 1,928 2,145 2,481 2,845
Other current liabs 358 316 316 316 316
Long-term debt/CBs - - - - -
Provisions/other LT liabs 280 159 159 159 159
Minorities/other equity 0 0 0 0 0
Shareholder funds 1,658 5,356 5,742 6,202 6,731
Total liabs & equity 5,277 7,758 8,362 9,158 10,052
Ratio analysis
Revenue growth (% YoY) - 13.2 11.3 16.0 14.8
Ebitda growth (% YoY) - 6.3 33.7 21.0 18.2
Ebitda margin (%) 5.5 5.1 6.2 6.4 6.6
Net profit margin (%) 2.9 5.6 2.9 3.0 3.0
Dividend payout (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Effective tax rate (%) 24.6 15.1 25.0 25.0 25.0
Ebitda/net int exp (x) 14.5 - - - -
Net debt/equity (%) 51.6 (24.8) (14.7) (10.4) (2.1)
ROE (%) 18.3 19.1 7.0 7.7 8.2
ROIC (%) 14.2 10.3 7.6 8.2 8.3
EVA/IC (%) (0.8) (4.7) (7.4) (6.8) (6.7)
Source: CLSA
Prepared for EV: hendrasetiono@semestaindovest.co.id
Beyond supermarkets Hero Supermarket - U-PF
4 March 2014 merlissa.trisno@clsa.com 9
Companies mentioned
Hero Supermarket (HERO IJ - RP2,655 - UNDERPERFORM)
Recommendation history of Hero Supermarket Tbk HERO IJ
Date Rec Target Date Rec Target
28 Jan 2014 U-PF 2,800.00 01 Apr 2013 O-PF 5,005.01
26 Aug 2013 O-PF 3,400.00
Source: CLSA
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2,000
4,000
6,000
S
t
o
c
k
p
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i
c
e
(
R
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)
May 11 Sep 11 Jan 12 May 12 Sep 12 Jan 13 May 13 Sep 13 Jan 14
Merlissa Trisno
Other analysts
No coverage
BUY
U-PF
N-R
O-PF
SELL
Prepared for EV: hendrasetiono@semestaindovest.co.id