1-

Kinh tA qudn ly

CAU rrOI THAO LUAN PHAN PHAN TICH CAU

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Il.,:u anh (chi) la quin ly c6ng ty b6nh kgo Hodng Gia vd mu6n dua mQt sin phAm b5nh l:.,o m6i vio thi trudng. Anh (chi) dang ph6n tfch c6u aC aann gi6 duoc hQ s6 co giSn cira c, .r loai b6nhkgom6i ndytheogi6vdhQsOcogi6nch6otheo gi6cdcs6nphAmb6nhkgo ri ng b6n tr0n th! trud'ng. . Vi sao anh (chi) cAn nim duoc thdng tin v hC sd co giSn? C6 m6i li0n hQ ndo i gifr'a hQ s6 co gidn theo gi5 vd sri'c manh thi trudng cria c6ng ty?

Anh (chi) quy6t dinh sri dirng phuong phrip rli6u tra ph6ng v6n khdch hnng d6 u6c luong h s6 co gi6n theo gi6 vd gi6 ch6o. Hdy md ti chi titit k6 ho4ch cira anh (chi), d4c biet la c6ch thi6t k6 vd nhfi'ng cdu hoi trong bing hoi Ntiu anh (chi) mu6n tdng sf'c manh thi trudng cria c6ng ty, anh chi cAn hQ s6 co gi6n theo gi6 thay d6i nhu th6 ndo? Hdy chi ra m6t s5 chi6n luoc cho c6ng ty d0 d4t duo. c diu d6?

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:u anh (chi) ld qu6n l;i c6ng ty nhap khAu mj, dn liOn. Anh (chi) phai quytit dinh n6n rr ip mdt hdng tu'nu6'c nio nhidu hon (Hdn Qu6c hay Thailand) . Vi sao anh (chi) ph6i nim duo"c th6ng tin v hQ s6 co gi6n vh hd s6 co gidn chdo.

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Anh (chi) quyt dinh sfi'dung phuong phSp thqc nghiQm thi trudng d0 c6 th6ng tin d6. Hdy m6 ta chi ti6t kC hopch cria anh (chi).

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I
r

oeuaruo ANALYSTS
1.
r ":
;'' syll

,i DEMAND ELASTICITY

r Elasticity measures the sensitivity of illi " I _;;. ili i the quantity demanded to changes in
,,"':r=i

The number and availability of

substitutes The expenditure on the commodity in relation to the consumer's budget The durability of the product The length of the time period under consideration

i?.,1".:i.ril

,,,,,S

the determinants of demand (supply).

"
10,.,
.:'.;,;;)it'

2.

;;i: Some elasticitY concepts: 1,.",r+,,$,;, . price elasticity of demand . elasticity of derived demand 't#t,'" . . cross-elasticity of demand ' j i-. .-\,$ . income elasticity of demand

3. 4. 5.

*llliiill

Consumer'spreferences

lffiil,l

elasticity of supply

Short-Run vs. Long-Run Elasticity

/A

Elasticity of Derived Demand The demand for components of final products is called derived demand The derived demand curve will be the more inelastic:

long-run demand curve will generally be more elastic than a short-run curve
P

/As

ii

the iime period lengthens

consumers
Iind way to adiust to the

1.

2.
Pt

prite chanq4:

via
:i

substitution or shifting

3.

consumption

4.

ilq

Q:Q:Q,

5.

The more essential is the component in question. The more inelastic is the demand for the final product. The smalleris thefraction of total cost going to this component. The more inelastic is the supply curve of cooperating factors. The shorter the time period under consideration.

$tationsnip between Elasticity

and Total

Demand, Total Revenue, Marginal Revenue, and Elasticity

DEMAND IS

1 J J 1P t
TR TR TR

(relative (relative (relative (relative

AQ> AQ< AQ> AQ<

relative relative relative relative

AP) AP) AP) AP)

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F.

The Cross-Elasticity of Demand

Cross-price elasticity measures the relative responsiveness of the quantity purchased of some good when the price of another good changes, holding the price of the good and money income constant.

It is, therefore, the percentage change in quantity demanded in response to a given percentage change in the price of another good.

Cross-elasticity can be either positive or negative. ln particular, cross-elasticity is positive for substitutes and negative for
complements.

iiriti

The Effect of a Price Ceiling on Quantity of Supply and Demand

.i:i . lnterference with the Price n Mechanism: . ceiling ,,.,:lf q . the effect of a price price floor
the effect of a

P ?2
Po

,,s

'' ri":
,

. .

the effect of a subsidy the incidence of taxes

Pl

Qr r:j rr =

The Effect of a Price Floor on Supply and

Demand

w w w

The lncidence of Taxes

> effect of demand elasticity > effect of supply elasticity

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=:
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lmposition of a Voluntary Export Quota Shift in Demand as Consumer Tastes Change

ftSe,

m re h e a vi y 5Bp/e rSJn eilt J,lW tgRR bto Jha o consdmers will bear the burden of the tax.
I

lmposition of a Voluntary Export Quota

P

P',
so

b) D&Sofothercars

a'a"

o. o.o*

.i::1 Q, Qu is:r'

:li:t...:l a) D&Sof Japanesecars

in USA before 1981

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tE

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t

The Downward Shift in Beef Demand

Decrease in the demand of beef will, over time, shift resources out of beef production.

$ "

P
Po

Pr

ln plannlng and in making policy decisions, managers must have some idea about the rrr,tli.:::::::::: characteristics of the demand for their product(s,) in order to attain the objectives of the firm or even "., ",*ratlli to enable ' ,1..,i*,:-the firm to survive.

Demand information about customer sensitivity to

WHAT DO CUSTOMERS WANT?

> >

,
> >

modifications in price advertising packaging product innovations economic condiiions etc.

r r

How would you try to find out customer behavior? How can actual demand curves be estimated?

are needed for product-development strategy

For competitive strategy details aboul customer reactions to changes in competitor prices and the quality of competing products play a significant role

From Theory to Practice

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I, N)

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a) consumer interviews or surveys ; to estimate the demand for new

products

What is the true quantitative relationship between demand and the factors that affect it?
How can demand functions be estimated? How can managers interpret and use these estimations?

> to test customers reactions to changes in the price or advertising > to test commitment for established
products

r r

. ,..,..4.4i b)

market studies and experiments

>

to test new or improved products in controlled settings uses historical data to estimate demand functions

c)

regression analysis

>

Consumer lnterviews (Surveys)

Ask potential buyers how much of the commodity they would buy at different prices (or with alternative values for the non-price determinants of demand)

) )

face to face approach telephone interviews

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More expensive and difficult technique for estimating demand and demand elasticity is the controlled market study or experiment o Displaying the products in several
different stores, generally in areas with different characteristics, over a period of time

P for instance, changing the price,

holding everything else constant

Market Studies and Expeiments continued

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Anatvsis and Demand Estimation

Problems in conducting market studies and experiments: a) expensive b) availability of subjects c) do subjects relate to the problem, do they take them seriously

tiNt

A frequently frequentlv used statistical technique tect r'-, in demand estimation _l J ,, r Estimates the quantitative relationship : 11-::'_;;i between the dependent variable and

,,.

lllitaT. ttrfiilv.;tr8/,r,#,*

ffi r

> quantity demanded being the dependent

variable

BUT: today information on market behavior also collected by membership and award cards of stores

} !

if only one independenf variable (predictor) used: simple regression if several independent variables used: multiple regression

'
A Linear Regression Model

rlr'lr

i:iffiiffiLilriiiiir Think of a demand function of general

1S&N$\\N$,
:r::::r: r...r
liiL
r

il

il

ll

iii,

IOrm:

u^.. .t.nr

ln practice the dependence of one variable on another might take any number of forms, but an assumption of linear dependency will often provide an adequate approximation to the true
relationship
\r

.:-

Q; = o, + prY - 0z pi + psp. - pap"+

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psz+

: r

whgrg
of good
i

Qi = quantity demanded r'.;.ffi ,:.;.":.4)in .* Y

=income

p, = price of good i ps = price ofthe substitute(s)

Z = other relevant e = error term

.,.',tt

p" = price of the complement(s) determinant(s) of demand

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values of cr

and

B,?

cr

and Bi has to be estimated from historical data

Data used in regression analysis

Simple Linear Regression Model

ln the simplest case, the dependent variable Y is assumed to have the following relationship with the lt'Hf,li, indePendent variable X: r\-!::7::iI!\_\\->,:,1,:.r != 2 + [{ + U

> >

cross-sectional data provide information on variables for a given period of time time series data give information about variables over a number of periods of time

; [U:isi*

where

New technologies are currently dramatically changing the possibilities of data collection!!!

Y = dependent variable X = independent variable a = intercept b = slope u = random factor

E sti m ati n g

fhe Regressio n Eq u ati o n

Finding a line that "best fits" the data

The line that besf fils a collection of X,Y data points, is the line minimizing the sum of the squared distances from the points to the line as measured in the vertical direction This line is known as a regression line, and the equation is called a regression equation

Estimated Regression Line;

Y=A+bX

Regression with Excel

X Variable 1 Line

Fit Plot
Rgression Slalislics Multiple R 0,959701
R

Sqrare

0,921026

Adtusled F 0,917265 Standard E 47 64577 ObseMlo 23

Residual Total

1 5559/3,1 5559/3,1 21 4767252 227AJ2 22 603645.7

a
194737

t-test: test of statistical significance of each estimated regression coefficient

M u lti p

e Regresslon

P roce d

re

1.
: . :: :. i,:
b: estimated coefficient SEo: standard error of the estlmated coefficient Rule of 2: if absolute value of t is greater than 2, estimated coefficient is significant at the 5% level lf coefficient passes t-test, the variable has a true impact on demand
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Determine the appropriate predictors and the form of the regression model Estimate the unknown a and b
COeffiCientS

2. 3.

.* ''

Estimate the variance associated with

the regression model

F-test, individual t-test for each coefficient)
b

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' 4. Check the utility of the model (R2, global

Specification of the Regression Model

rs

tr Proxy variables
a to present some other'real" variable,
such as taste or preference, which is difficult to measure

Example: Specifying the Regression Equation for Pizza Demand

tr Dummy variables (X,= 0; Xr= 'l;

o for qualitative variable, such as gender
or location

We want to estimate the demand for pizza by college students in USA

> What variables would most likely

affect their demand for pizza?

tr Linear vs. non-linear relationship

o quadratic terms or logarithms can be
used

> What kind of data to collect?

y-a+bXr+cXr2
Qo=alb

IOgQD= loga + blogl

S",r]:*.rr

Data: Suppose we have obtained cross'1,.;1 riiillsectional data on college students of ' l4randomly selected 30 dollege campus (by a surveY) lr"S
The following information is available: > average number of slices consumed per month by students > average price of a slice of pizza sold around the campus pnce of its complementary product (soft drink) > tuition fee (as proxy for income) loc.ation of the campus (dummy variabte is

Linear additive regression line:

Y=a+brpp+ bzp.+ bsT+ bal

where

a
T L

= quantit! of pizza demanded = the intercept

P, = price of pizza
P" = price of soft drink

= tuition fee

included to find out whether the demand for pizza is affected by the number of available substitutes); 1 urban, 0 for non-urban

= location the impact of the variables on the demand for pizza

bi = coefficients of the X variables measuring

area

Estimating and lnterpreting the Regression Coefficients

Y =26.27- 0.088pr- 0.076p" + 0,138T- 0.544L (0.018) (0.018) (0.020) (0.087) (0.884)
Standard enor

',.a{ R2 0.717 =
R2 = 0.67 F = 15.8

,,

of Y =

1.64

:rs\ ::f ,i Numbers in parentheses are standard , errors of coefficients.