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Mobile Trends for 2011 Mobile Subscriber and Revenue Growth Global Markets Data Growth Devices Changing Landscape Mobile Ecosystem Disruption Mobile Impacts Everything Mobile Data Traffic Growth and Solutions Intellectual Property 2H 2011
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2.
Total Global Mobile Revenues to hit $1.3 Trillion, almost 2% of Global GDP
Top 10 operators control 43% of the global mobile revenues
3.
4.
Mobile Devices are now exceeding traditional computers in unit sales + revenue
Majority of the device sales in the US are now smartphones. Device Replacement is shrinking
5.
Mobile Broadband (4G) is being deployed at a faster rate than previous generations
Over 1 Billion broadband connections by 2011
6.
7.
All major markets are consolidating with the top 3 players at 85% of the market
Regulators will have to be more prudent and proactive about managing competitiveness and growth
8.
Mobile Data Traffic will be 95% of the global mobile traffic by 2015
Many countries are facing spectrum exhaust in the next 5 years
9.
10.
11.
12. 13.
There will be more changes in the next 10 years than in the previous 100
The value chains will keep disrupting every 12-24 months by the new players and business models Top 20 control 1/3rd of the overall mobile patent pool
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Rank 1 2 3 4 5
6
7 8 9 10
Indonesia
Japan Germany Pakistan Mexico
India
UK Germany Italy Russia
France
Italy Australia Brazil Russia
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Rank 1 2 3 4 5
6
7 8 9 10
Austria
Singapore Sweden Denmark Germany
Australia
France Israel Netherlands Singapore
Canada
Australia New Zealand Austria Belgium
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Rank 1 2 3 4 5
By Data Revenue Verizon Wireless NTT DoCoMo AT&T Mobility China Mobile Vodafone
By NM Data Revenue AT&T Mobility NTT DoCoMo Verizon Wireless China Mobile Vodafone
6
7 8 9 10
Telenor
China Unicom T-Mobile TeliaSonera Reliance
KDDI
T-Mobile Telefonica Sprint Nextel Softbank
KDDI
T-Mobile Telefonica Sprint Nextel Softbank
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Competitive Dynamics
The Rule of Three is evident in all major markets. While the percentage market share might vary, on an average, the top 3 control 93% of the market in an given nation. It doesnt matter if the market is defined by controlled regulation like in China, Korea, and Japan or if it is open market driven in markets such as the US, UK, and India. Eventually, only top 3 operators control the majority of the market. There are niches that others occupy but they are largely irrelevant to the overall structure and functioning of the mobile market. Markets such as US and India experienced similar competitive environment in their hyper-growth phase. For the US, this phase was in the nineties-mid-2000s while India has been experiencing the similar environment in the last 3-4 years. In both cases, at the start there are 5-6 players with no more than 25% market share but higher than 10% of the mix but gradually the market forces enable consolidation. Over a period of 18 years, US is settling into a top 3 operator market. Indias brutal price wars are going to trigger the consolidation in the next 12-24 months and will eventually settle into a structure similar to other markets. The competitive equilibrium point in the mobile industry seems to when the market shares of the top 3 are 46%:29%:18% respectively with the remaining 7% being allocated to the niche operators. To achieve some semblance of equilibrium in the market the top operator shouldnt have more than 50% of the market share and the number three player shouldnt have less than 20%. This helps create enough balance in the market to derive maximum value for the consumer. Mobile operators will face some hard choices in developing and protecting the role they want to play in a given region and the ecosystem at-large. The strategy they choose will have a direct impact on the expected EBITDA margins, investment required over the long-haul, how investors view them, and on the competitive landscape of the country. Given, the fast pace of globalization, new rules and trends might emerge over the course of this decade that further define communications and computing as we know it.
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Trusted Concierge
Search (Local, Online, Media)
Presence Physiological parameters Calendar Knowledge (about User) DRIVES Transactions (from User)
User Experience
Intellectual Community
Trusted Advisor
Advertising
M2M
Pricing
3 Party Sources
rd
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In most western markets, data traffic is doubling YOY Sweden, US, Hong Kong, Japan, and Denmark make the top 5 in terms of MB consumed per capita A Multi-pronged approach is needed to have a sustainable strategy long term
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Only a holistic strategy to deal with data tsunami can help the operators long-term
As a result of the data tsunami, there are two types of opportunities that are being created, one that take advantage of the data being generated in a way that enhances the user experience and provides value and the other in technologies that help manage the traffic data that will continue to grow exponentially. To be able to stay ahead of the demand, significant planning needs to go in to deal with the bits and bytes that are already exploding. New technical and business solutions will be needed to manage the growth and profit from the services. Relying on only one solution wont be an effective strategy to manage rising data demand. A holistic approach to managing data traffic is needed and our analysis shows that the cost structure can be reduced by more than half if a suite of solutions are deployed vs. a single dimensional approach and thus bringing the hockey stick curves of data cost more in line with the revenues and thus preserving the margins. The decision making process within the operator organizations will need to be streamlined as well. Operators should also consider creating a senior post which focuses on both the cost side and the solution side so they can devise and institute a sustainable long-term policy and keep the margins healthy.
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Mobile data traffic growing faster than online traffic, doubling Y/Y
Source: Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era 2nd Edition http://chetansharma.com/yottabyteera2.htm
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ra ffi cE qu ili br iu m
50%
Philippines Japan
40%
Re v
en ue -T
Australia Indonesia US New Zealand Hong Kong Singapore Germany Netherlands Italy Sweden Switzerland France Portugal Canada Denmark Korea Finland Spain Russia South Africa UK
China 30%
20%
Mexico
Malaysia
20%
Source: Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era 2nd Edition http://chetansharma.com/yottabyteera2.htm
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80%
100%
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Copper
2G
Core Network
Microwave
3G
Fiber
RNC
SGSN
GGSN
4G
Optimization
Offloading Traffic
Offloading Traffic
WiFi/FemtoCell
Compression/Optimization of Data Traffic Policy Management
Compression/Optimization
Source: Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era 2nd Edition http://chetansharma.com/yottabyteera2.htm
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Internet Services
Light Networks
INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY WILL REMAIN KEY TO LONG-TERM PRODUCT AND COMPETITIVE STRATEGY SUCCESS
Rank 1 2 3 4 5
6
7 8 9 10
Ericsson
Intel Sony Alcatel-Lucent AT&T
RIM
Siemens NTT DoCoMo Fujitsu Qualcomm
Microsoft
Sony Motorola Qualcomm Siemens
Based on an estimation of Mobile Communications Related Patents that have been granted by The USPTO and the EPO. This assessment doesnt take a look at the quality or the value of the patents
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Rank 1 2 3 4 5
6
7 8 9 10
Intel
RIM HP Oracle SAP
NEC
LG Fujitsu Cisco Broadcom
Verizon
British Telecom Swisscom Telecom Italia SK Telecom
Based on an estimation of Mobile Communications Related Patents that have been granted by The USPTO and the EPO. This assessment doesnt take a look at the quality or the value of the patents
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SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
f()
Ideation
Licensing
IP Analysis
IP Protection Process
IP Management
Market Requirements
Product Requirements
Public Disclosure
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