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WELCOME State of the Global Mobile Industry We are thrilled you are here

Half Yearly Assessment - 2011

Research. Technology. Strategy. Intellectual Property. Thought Leadership Summits.


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Table of Contents

Mobile Trends for 2011 Mobile Subscriber and Revenue Growth Global Markets Data Growth Devices Changing Landscape Mobile Ecosystem Disruption Mobile Impacts Everything Mobile Data Traffic Growth and Solutions Intellectual Property 2H 2011

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Mobile Trends for 2011


1.

Total Global Subscriptions to hit 6 Billion


India and China racing to a billion a piece

2.

Total Global Mobile Revenues to hit $1.3 Trillion, almost 2% of Global GDP
Top 10 operators control 43% of the global mobile revenues

3.

Total Global Mobile Data Revenues to eclipse $300 Billion


Non-messaging data now owns 53% of the global mobile data revenues

4.

Mobile Devices are now exceeding traditional computers in unit sales + revenue
Majority of the device sales in the US are now smartphones. Device Replacement is shrinking

5.

Mobile Broadband (4G) is being deployed at a faster rate than previous generations
Over 1 Billion broadband connections by 2011

6.

Global Mobile Apps revenue has shifted to off-deck


The decline is directly proportional to the increase in smartphone penetration by region

7.

All major markets are consolidating with the top 3 players at 85% of the market
Regulators will have to be more prudent and proactive about managing competitiveness and growth

8.

Mobile Data Traffic will be 95% of the global mobile traffic by 2015
Many countries are facing spectrum exhaust in the next 5 years

9.

Connected device segment is growing at the fastest pace


Operators will have to quickly adapt their strategies to stay relevant in this segment

10.

Several multi-billion dollar opportunity segments are emerging


Mobile Advertising, Mobile Commerce, Mobile Wellness, Mobile Games, and Mobile Cloud Computing to name a few

11.

Mobile Ecosystem has become very dynamic and unpredictable


Apple, Google, Amazon, and Facebook have become the most important revenue generating mobile platforms

12. 13.

There will be more changes in the next 10 years than in the previous 100
The value chains will keep disrupting every 12-24 months by the new players and business models Top 20 control 1/3rd of the overall mobile patent pool
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Intellectual Property has become a key component of long-term product strategy

MOBILE SUBSCRIBER AND REVENUE GROWTH

The Big Picture


The global mobile industry is the most vibrant and fastest growing industry. We expect the total revenue in the industry to touch approximately $1.3 Trillion in 2011 with mobile data representing 24% of the mix. Global Mobile Data revenues are expected to eclipse $300 Billion for the first time in 2011. It is also the first year in which non-messaging data revenues will make up the majority of the overall global data revenues at 53%. We expect the total number of subscriptions to exceed 6 billion by the end of 2011. The first 1 billion took over 20 years and this last one is going to take only 15 months. The primary growth drivers are India and China which are cumulatively adding 75M new subs every quarter. Indian and China are also entangled in the race to the billion. At the end of Q2 2011, China was ahead by 50M but India is adding subscriptions at faster rate and is likely to eclipse China before Q2 2012. By then, both nations are expected to exceed 1 Billion in total subscriptions making up 31% of the global subscriptions. In Q1 2011, US became the first major market to exceed the 50% mark in smartphone sales. The global figure stands at approximately 26%. Some operators expect 90% of their device sales to be smartphones by the end of the year. In terms of the actual smartphone penetration, we expect the US market to eclipse the 50% mark in 2012. China leads in the number of subs but US dominates in both total and data revenue. A number of emerging nations are now in top 10 Brazil, India, Russia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mexico while once dominant Korea, UK, Italy, Germany have dropped off or slipped in rankings. The number of mobile operators with more than $1B in data revenues will increase to 47 in 2011. This number was only at 13 in 2005.

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Global Mobile Market Snapshot 2011


Global Mobile Market Snapshot 2011
Global Subscriptions

Global Smartphone Users

Global Data Users

Global SMS Users

Global Mobile Broadband Users

Each dude represents approximately 113 million humans on planet Earth


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Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2011

Global Mobile Industry Growth

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Global Mobile Leaders

Rank 1 2 3 4 5

By Subs China India US Russia Brazil

By Total Revenue US China Japan Brazil France

By Data Revenue US Japan China UK Germany

6
7 8 9 10

Indonesia
Japan Germany Pakistan Mexico

India
UK Germany Italy Russia

France
Italy Australia Brazil Russia

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Global Mobile Leaders

Rank 1 2 3 4 5

By Sub Penetration Portugal Russia Finland Greece Italy

By ARPU Japan Canada Switzerland US Norway

By Data Usage Sweden US Hong Kong Finland Denmark

6
7 8 9 10

Austria
Singapore Sweden Denmark Germany

Australia
France Israel Netherlands Singapore

Canada
Australia New Zealand Austria Belgium

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Biggest Telecom Groups

Rank 1 2 3 4 5

By Subs China Mobile Vodafone Telefonica America Movil Bharti Airtel

By Data Revenue Verizon Wireless NTT DoCoMo AT&T Mobility China Mobile Vodafone

By NM Data Revenue AT&T Mobility NTT DoCoMo Verizon Wireless China Mobile Vodafone

6
7 8 9 10

Telenor
China Unicom T-Mobile TeliaSonera Reliance

KDDI
T-Mobile Telefonica Sprint Nextel Softbank

KDDI
T-Mobile Telefonica Sprint Nextel Softbank

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Global Mobile Industry continues to grow at a healthy pace

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Mobile is approx 2% of Global GDP

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Operators around the world are benefiting from mobile data

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Top 10 global mobile data operators US, Japan Dominate

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GLOBAL MARKETS: DATA GROWTH

US, Japan lead in revenues; China, India in subscriptions


Japan continues to be the leader in mobile data with NTT DoCoMo, KDDI, and Softbank Japan ahead of the pack in terms of mobile data revenue and data as a % of total ARPU. Next, Australia and the US have made good inroads in the last two years. In fact, if we look at the overall data revenue, US is much further ahead than any nation due to the size of the market. While India has the highest subscriber growth rate in the world right now, the revenue generating opportunity remain down right anemic compared to other major markets with average dropping down to $3.50 in overall ARPU. Even with significant subscriber base, there is going to be a general lack of opportunity in the market for the next couple of years relative to other markets.

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Japanese operators ahead of the mobile data pack

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All major markets experiencing data growth Japan, Australia, US leading

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Race to the Billion China vs. India

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DEVICES: CHANGING LANDSCAPE

Devices Apple, Android Dominate


Apple has had the tablet space to itself. Thus far the response from the competitors has been tepid esp. on the pricing dimension. Apple has had such a mastery over the supply-chain and months ahead of the competition that by the time they figure out details, Apple already locks up the pricing advantage for the cycle. OEMs try to catch-up on the features but cant do on the margins. OEMs can grow the pie by bringing products at a better price points that helps attract different demographics to the mix. Microsoft can make good inroads into the space with its Win8 tablet release in 2012 but it will be again in a catchup mode as the iOS ecosystem will be even more robust by then. The cheaper Android tablets will do well in the market. As expected, tablets will pretty much eliminate the need for netbooks and are starting to eat into the desktop/laptop revenue. Nokia and RIM are under severe market scrutiny as investors and developers leave in droves. Lack of product planning and execution has left their market share in disarray. Nokias valuation has been cut into half while the newcomer HTC edged past the industry giant in a remarkable story of the year. Nokias release of N9 shows the engineering and creative design depth but a lot is riding on the first generation of Nokia Windows Phones. While the market hasnt shown much appetite for Windows phone thus far, a good family of devices might be able to slow the loss trajectory and position the combined team for the up-for-grabs 3rd spot in the ecosystem. HPs acquisition of Palm is finally bringing some new products to the market but the lack of an effective ecosystem means lack of traction in 2011. Given that the computing is shifting to mobile devices, we can expect some of the weaker desktop/laptop players will exit the industry. Tablets are primarily being used in the WiFi mode because the primary use case is indoors and WiFi gives a better (and cheaper) user experience. Once operators start to roll out user-friendly family data plans across multiple devices, we can expect the cellular activation go higher but will still be dominated by WiFi overall.
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Apple dominates the profits, Android the volume, Nokia falters

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Mobile Devices are dominating the Computing Ecosystem

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US leading in smartphone sales

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Connected devices explosion

Source: Mobile Cloud Computing. http://chetansharma.com/mobilecloudcomputing.htm


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Tablets are primarily WiFi consumption devices right now

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Competing with iPad

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Changing Ecosystem Dynamics


It is very clear that the ecosystem dynamics can change very quickly, one just cant take the competitive and friendly forces for granted. In the past, the silos and segments were clearly defined with little overlap. However, over the course of last couple of years, players have been migrating and surfing in segments across the board - from Apple to Visa, from P&G to AT&T, from Facebook to Time Warner, from Google to Best Buy, every company wants to capture the mindshare and piece of the consumers pocketbook. The fine line between partners and competitors can get obliterated in a quarter. Apple is competing with Cisco, Comcast is going after AT&Ts business, Visa and Verizon want to be the payment channel of choice, Amazon is gunning for Microsofts enterprise business, so on and so forth. One product launch, one acquisition, can change the game in an instant. And this is only the beginning.

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Competitive Dynamics
The Rule of Three is evident in all major markets. While the percentage market share might vary, on an average, the top 3 control 93% of the market in an given nation. It doesnt matter if the market is defined by controlled regulation like in China, Korea, and Japan or if it is open market driven in markets such as the US, UK, and India. Eventually, only top 3 operators control the majority of the market. There are niches that others occupy but they are largely irrelevant to the overall structure and functioning of the mobile market. Markets such as US and India experienced similar competitive environment in their hyper-growth phase. For the US, this phase was in the nineties-mid-2000s while India has been experiencing the similar environment in the last 3-4 years. In both cases, at the start there are 5-6 players with no more than 25% market share but higher than 10% of the mix but gradually the market forces enable consolidation. Over a period of 18 years, US is settling into a top 3 operator market. Indias brutal price wars are going to trigger the consolidation in the next 12-24 months and will eventually settle into a structure similar to other markets. The competitive equilibrium point in the mobile industry seems to when the market shares of the top 3 are 46%:29%:18% respectively with the remaining 7% being allocated to the niche operators. To achieve some semblance of equilibrium in the market the top operator shouldnt have more than 50% of the market share and the number three player shouldnt have less than 20%. This helps create enough balance in the market to derive maximum value for the consumer. Mobile operators will face some hard choices in developing and protecting the role they want to play in a given region and the ecosystem at-large. The strategy they choose will have a direct impact on the expected EBITDA margins, investment required over the long-haul, how investors view them, and on the competitive landscape of the country. Given, the fast pace of globalization, new rules and trends might emerge over the course of this decade that further define communications and computing as we know it.
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Competitive Landscape in Major Markets

Source: Competition and Evolution of Mobile Markets. http://chetansharma.com/mobilecompetition.htm

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Global Mobile Competitive Index

Source: Competition and Evolution of Mobile Markets. http://chetansharma.com/mobilecompetition.htm


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Eventually all markets consolidate to top 3

Source: Competition and Evolution of Mobile Markets. http://chetansharma.com/mobilecompetition.htm


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MOBILE IMPACTS EVERYTHING

Mobile Apps and Services


Mobile is fundamentally reshaping how we as consumers spend from housing and healthcare to entertainment and travel, from food and drinks to communication and transportation. Mobile not only influences purchase behavior but also post purchase opinions. When the share button is literally a second away, consumers are willingly sharing more information than ever before. Mobile is thus helping close the nirvana gap for brands and advertisers who seek to connect advertising to actual transactions. The long-term battle is however for owning the context of the users. Having the best knowledge about the user to help drive the transaction is the simply the most valuable currency of commerce.
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Mobile impacts all purchase funnels

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Context the most valuable currency in mobile


Demographics/Explicit Profile Interests/Implicit Profile Sensor data Purchasing, Payments User Intent Communications Location Browsing, Watching, Previewing, Flipping

Trusted Concierge
Search (Local, Online, Media)

Presence Physiological parameters Calendar Knowledge (about User) DRIVES Transactions (from User)

User Experience

Address Book Gifting Social Community

Intellectual Community

Trusted Advisor

Advertising

M2M

Pricing

Preferences Security/Authorization Devices in the vicinity

3 Party Sources
rd

Big Opportunities in becoming the trusted Concierge/Advisor to the individual user


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Smartphones are enabling Offdeck to dominate app revenue

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MOBILE DATA TRAFFIC GROWTH

Mobile Data Traffic Growth

In most western markets, data traffic is doubling YOY Sweden, US, Hong Kong, Japan, and Denmark make the top 5 in terms of MB consumed per capita A Multi-pronged approach is needed to have a sustainable strategy long term

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Only a holistic strategy to deal with data tsunami can help the operators long-term
As a result of the data tsunami, there are two types of opportunities that are being created, one that take advantage of the data being generated in a way that enhances the user experience and provides value and the other in technologies that help manage the traffic data that will continue to grow exponentially. To be able to stay ahead of the demand, significant planning needs to go in to deal with the bits and bytes that are already exploding. New technical and business solutions will be needed to manage the growth and profit from the services. Relying on only one solution wont be an effective strategy to manage rising data demand. A holistic approach to managing data traffic is needed and our analysis shows that the cost structure can be reduced by more than half if a suite of solutions are deployed vs. a single dimensional approach and thus bringing the hockey stick curves of data cost more in line with the revenues and thus preserving the margins. The decision making process within the operator organizations will need to be streamlined as well. Operators should also consider creating a senior post which focuses on both the cost side and the solution side so they can devise and institute a sustainable long-term policy and keep the margins healthy.

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Mobile data traffic growing faster than online traffic, doubling Y/Y

Source: Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era 2nd Edition http://chetansharma.com/yottabyteera2.htm
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Margin preservation key to all operator strategies

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Managing data margins will be top priority for all operators

ra ffi cE qu ili br iu m

50%

Philippines Japan

40%

Data as % of Services Revenues

Re v

en ue -T

Australia Indonesia US New Zealand Hong Kong Singapore Germany Netherlands Italy Sweden Switzerland France Portugal Canada Denmark Korea Finland Spain Russia South Africa UK

China 30%

20%

Mexico

Malaysia

Brazil 10% India Argentina

20%

Source: Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era 2nd Edition http://chetansharma.com/yottabyteera2.htm
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40% 60% Data as % of Overall Network Traffic

80%

100%

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Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2011

Management of Data Requires Multiple Strategies


Radio Access Network Mobile Backhaul Core Network

Copper

2G

Core Network
Microwave

3G

Fiber

RNC

SGSN

GGSN

4G

Optimization

Offloading Traffic

Offloading Traffic

WiFi/FemtoCell
Compression/Optimization of Data Traffic Policy Management

Compression/Optimization

Source: Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era 2nd Edition http://chetansharma.com/yottabyteera2.htm
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Internet Services

Light Networks

INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY WILL REMAIN KEY TO LONG-TERM PRODUCT AND COMPETITIVE STRATEGY SUCCESS

IP is critical to long-term product strategy


The IP tussles are playing out as expected Players with strong IP portfolios will be able to command better negotiating positions, new revenue streams, competitive positioning over the long-term On average mobile companies file patents 1.7 times more in the US vs. Europe Mobile Patent Leaders in US: IBM, Microsoft, Samsung Mobile Patent Leaders in Europe: Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia, Samsung Mobile Patent Leaders in Infrastructure: Samsung, Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson Mobile Patent Leaders in Device/Software: Nokia, IBM, Microsoft Mobile Patent Leaders in Service Providers: AT&T, NTT DoCoMo, Sprint Top 20 control 1/3rd of the total mobile communications patent pool
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Patent Power Rankings Mobile Communications Related Issued Patents 1993-2011

Rank 1 2 3 4 5

US IBM Microsoft Samsung Nokia Motorola

Europe Alcatel-Lucent Nokia Samsung Sony Ericsson

US+Europe Samsung Nokia Alcatel-Lucent IBM Ericsson

6
7 8 9 10

Ericsson
Intel Sony Alcatel-Lucent AT&T

RIM
Siemens NTT DoCoMo Fujitsu Qualcomm

Microsoft
Sony Motorola Qualcomm Siemens

Based on an estimation of Mobile Communications Related Patents that have been granted by The USPTO and the EPO. This assessment doesnt take a look at the quality or the value of the patents
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Patent Power Rankings Mobile Communications Related Issued Patents 1993-2011

Rank 1 2 3 4 5

OEM/Software Nokia IBM Microsoft Sony Motorola

Infrastructure Samsung Alcatel-Lucent Ericsson Qualcomm Siemens

Service Provider AT&T NTT DoCoMo Sprint Orange Deutsche Telekom

6
7 8 9 10

Intel
RIM HP Oracle SAP

NEC
LG Fujitsu Cisco Broadcom

Verizon
British Telecom Swisscom Telecom Italia SK Telecom

Based on an estimation of Mobile Communications Related Patents that have been granted by The USPTO and the EPO. This assessment doesnt take a look at the quality or the value of the patents
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Integration of IP with product strategy is essential for competitiveness in mobile


NUMERIC ANALYSIS

SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS

f()

Patent Portfolio Quotient (PPQ)

Improve your PPQ by tight integration with product strategy

PATENT PROGRAM ANALYSIS

R&D, Other Sources

Ideation

Licensing

IP Analysis

IP competitive and risk assessment

IP Protection Process

IP Management

IP driven Product Development Cycle

Source: What is your Patent Portfolio Quotient? http://chetansharma.com/patentportfolioquotient.htm


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Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2011

Market Requirements

Product Requirements

Design and Development

Public Disclosure

WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2H 2011

What to expect in 2H 2011


More Tiering, faster pace of change of plans. More options, family data plans Cost reduction is as important as revenue generation. More players will align their value-chains and cost structures Radios will start connecting the digital world with the physical world with significant disruption opportunity Mobile Payment Networks will remain intact for the near future as the ecosystem largely focuses on building value on top of the existing exchange platforms The intersection of Social, Location, Identity, and Gaming is creating new opportunities With connectivity becoming pervasive, mobile will fundamentally start to alter the legacy infrastructure retail, health, education, energy, computing, travel, entertainment Significant tablet adoption in the enterprise directly impacting the traditional computer manufacturers Both HTML5 and Apps will continue to grow, the relevancy to any given application will depend on the reach and economics requirements Mobile data growth will double again in 2011. Significant opportunities in managed and understanding of mobile data growth Regulators will need to evolve to keep up with the trend to keep their nation globally competitive IP will continue to surface as a key product strategy tool for players in the ecosystem Significant progress in emerging areas like mHealth, mPayments will come from the developed world while the western countries get mired in regulatory and legacy mess

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MOBILE FUTURE FORWARD


MOBILE THOUGHT-LEADERSHIP SUMMIT

Connected Universe. Unlimited Opportunities.

http://www.mobilefutureforward.com
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Exceptional Speakers. Actionable Insights.


Glenn Lurie, President, AT&T Mobility Gibu Thomas, SVP - Online/Mobile, Walmart Charlie Herrin, SVP - Products and Technology, Comcast Jeremiah Zinn, EVP, MTV Sanjiv Ahuja, CEO, LightSquared Steve Mollenkopf, EVP and Group President, Qualcomm Danny Bowman, President - Connected Devices, Sprint Nextel David Messenger, EVP, Head - Online/Mobile, American Express Prof. Cliff Nass, Human Computer Interaction, Stanford University Jason MacKenzie, President, HTC-Americas Erik Moreno, SVP, Fox Hank Skorny, Chief Strategy Officer, Real Networks Jerry Batt, CIO, PulteGroup Jay Emmet, GM, OpenMarket Janet Schijns, VP, Verizon Wireless Mikael Back, VP Products, Ericsson Ken Denman, CEO, Openwave Kris Rinne, SVP - Networks, AT&T Mobility Mike Mulica, President, Synchronoss Technologies Paul Palmieri, CEO, Millennial Media Rob Glaser, Partner, Accel Stephen Bye, CTO, Sprint Suja Chandrasekaran, CIO, Timberland Will Hsu, Chief Product Officer, AT&T Interactive Ken Wirth, President, Alcatel Lucent Wireless Abhi Ingle, VP Advanced Mobility, AT&T Wireless Amit Gupta, SVP and CTO, INQMobile Carlos Domingo, CEO, Telefonica I&D Matt Oomen, President, Reliance Communications Braxton Woodham, Head of Engineering, AVOS John SanGiovanni, Cofounder, Zumobi Bob Gessel, VP/Head -Tech/Network Strategy, Ericsson Subba Rao, former CEO, Tata DoCoMo Dale Nitschke, former President, Target Mark Rolston, Chief Creative Officer, Frog Design . and many more

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Discussions to inform your strategy


Is 4G a Game Changer? Innovation at the Edges Mobile Payments and Commerce Disruption is in the air Mobile Data Services from the Prism of the CIOs Solving the 50 year Spectrum Crunch Managing the Network Growth Opportunities in the Emerging Markets The Universe of Connected Devices Analytics - How to Collect, Manage, and Use Data? Multi-modal Interactions - How Consumers Adapt? At the Intersection of Social, Mobile, Commerce, Content Battle for the Home playing in the n-screen world What do Developers Want? A Smarter Planet - The Role of Mobile in Enhancing Lifestyles and in Making Everyday Decisions Drivers for New Sources of Revenue Role of Regulations - Spectrum, Privacy, Net-Neutrality Mobile Cloud Computing Monetizing the network From 3 Screens to Multi-screens Mobile Universe in 2020
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We look forward to hearing from you

Chetan Sharma chetan@chetansharma.com TW: @chetansharma http://www.chetansharma.com

Mobile Future Forward info@mobilefutureforward.com TW: @mfutureforward http://www.mobilefutureforward.com

Research. Technology. Strategy. Intellectual Property. Thought Leadership Summits.

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