Giao Tring Quyhoach Quanly Nuoc P

Tr!
ng i hc Thy li

GS. TS. H Vn Khi

Gio trnh

Quy hoch v qun l ngun n!c

Nh xut bn Nng nghip
H Ni - 2005
2 Quy hoch v qun l ngun n!c
Cc tc gi bin son gio trnh ny da trn c!ng mn hc, cc
ti liu ging dy vi s h tr ca cc chuyn gia t! vn quc t. Gio
trnh do GS. TS. Ng nh Tun v PGS. TS. Nguyn Vn Tun phn
bin. Hi ng Khoa hc v o to Tr!ng i hc Thy li ph
chun cho xut bn gio trnh ny theo Quyt nh s 1456/Q-HTL-
HKH&T ngy 18/4/2005. Tiu hp phn "H tr tng c!ng nng lc
cho Tr!ng i hc Thy li" thuc Ch!ng trnh H tr ngnh n!c
ca DANIDA ti tr kinh ph cho t! vn quc t, trong n!c v in n
gio trnh.
mc lc 3

Mc Lc

Trang
Li ni u 5

Ch!ng 1

Ti nguyn n!c v vn s dng ti nguyn n!c 7
1.1. Ti nguyn n!c v vn khai thc ti nguyn n!c 7
1.2. Khi nim v h thng ngun n!c v c im ca n 10
1.3. Nhu cu n!c dng v nhu cu n!c sinh thi 12
1.4. c im chung v ti nguyn n!c ca Vit Nam 14

Ch!ng 2

Quy hoch v qun l ngun n!c 22
2.1. Nhim v ca quy hoch v qun l ngun n!c 22
2.2. Cc bi ton c bn v quy hoch v qun l ngun n!c 23
2.3. Ch!ng trnh n!c quc gia cc dng quy hoch ngun n!c 25
2.4. Ni dung v cc b!c c bn lp quy hoch ngun n!c 29
2.5. Khung lut php v th ch trong qun l ti nguyn n!c 32
2.6. Yu cu pht trin bn vng ti nguyn n!c 34
2.7. Ph!ng php tip cn h thng trong quy hoch v qun l ngun n!c 36
2.8. Vai tr ca m hnh ho, nhng !u im v hn ch ca n 37

Ch!ng 3

Phn tch kinh t trong quy hoch pht trin ngun n!c 41
3.1. Nhim v v ni dung phn tch kinh t trong pht trin ngun n!c 41
3.2. Mt s khi nim c bn 41
3.3. Cc ch tiu nh gi hiu qu kinh t ca d n 49
3.4. Phn tch chi ph v li ch trong quy hoch ngun n!c 52
3.5. V d v nh gi hiu qu kinh t d n 53
3.6. Gi n!c v nh gi n!c 63

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Ch!ng 4

M hnh ho trong quy hoch v qun l ngun n!c 64
4.1. Qu trnh la chn ph!ng n quy hoch ngun n!c 64
4.2. M hnh m phng h thng 65
4.3. M hnh ti !u ho trong quy hoch ngun n!c 68
4.4. Thit lp bi ton ti !u h thng ngun n!c v phn loi 71
4.5. Ti !u ha i vi bi ton pht trin h thng ngun n!c 77
4.6. Bi ton ti !u a mc tiu 79

Ch!ng 5

K thut phn tch h thng ng dng trong quy hoch
v qun l ngun n!c 85
5.1. L thuyt phn tch h thng 85
5.2. H thng ph!ng php lun ca l thuyt phn tch h thng 90
5.3. Phn loi tng qut cc m hnh ti !u 92
5.4. Ph!ng php gii cc bi ton quy hoch tuyn tnh 94
5.5. Quy hoch phi tuyn 107
5.6. Quy hoch ng 134
5.7. p dng ph!ng php ti !u ha trong quy hoch qun l ngun n!c 150
5.8. p dng m hnh m phng trong quy hoch ngun n!c 174

Ch!ng 6

H thng h tr ra quyt nh 177
6.1. Khi nim v h thng h tr ra quyt nh (DSS) 177
6.2. H thng h tr ra quyt nh trong quy hoch v qun l ngun n!c 180

Ti liu tham kho 187

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mc lc 5

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Li ni u 5

Li ni u

Gio trnh Quy hoch v qun l ngun n!c !c bin son theo
khun kh Ch!ng trnh H tr ngnh n!c ca Danida (WAterSPS), thuc
tiu hp phn H tr nng cao nng lc Tr!ng i hc Thu li do Chnh
ph an Mch ti tr. Gio trnh ny phc v ging dy mn hc Quy
hoch ngun n!c ch!ng trnh i hc v c th s dng lm ti liu
tham kho cho cc hc vin cao hc v nghin cu sinh thuc lnh vc pht
trin ngun n!c.
Mc tiu ca Gio trnh l gii thiu nhng khi nim c bn v quy
hoch v qun l ngun n!c, cc ph!ng php phn tch kinh t k thut,
ph!ng php phn tch h thng trong quy hoch v qun l ngun n!c.
Ni dung ca gio trnh !c trnh by theo h!ng tip cn nhng ph!ng
php nghin cu hin i trn th gii v quy hoch v qun l ngun
n!c. Ph lc km theo gio trnh ny l cc v d v nghin cu in hnh
v cc bi ton quy hoch h thng h cha li dng tng hp, quy hoch
phng l, cc bi ton qun l khai thc h thng ngun n!c.
Gio trnh gm 6 ch!ng vi nhng ni dung chnh nh! sau:
1. Cc khi nim v ni dung c bn v quy hoch v qun l
ngun n!c
2. c im Ti nguyn n!c v vn quy hoch qun l ngun
n!c ca Vit Nam
3. Phn tch kinh t trong quy hoch v pht trin ngun n!c
4. K thut phn tch h thng ng dng trong quy hoch v
qun l ngun n!c
5. p dng ph!ng php ti !u ho trong quy hoch v qun l
ngun n!c
6. H thng h tr ra quyt nh trong quy hoch qun l ngun
n!c

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Cc nghin cu in hnh s !c xut bn ring trong tp ti liu
h!ng dn thc hnh.
Trong qu trnh chun b bn tho ca gio trnh ny, tc gi
nhn !c s h tr th!ng xuyn v mt ti liu v t! vn chuyn mn ca
Ch!ng trnh h tr ngnh n!c ca Danida (WAterSPS). Tc gi xin chn
thnh cm n v s gip ny. Tc gi xin chn thnh cm n GS. TS.
Ng nh Tun, GS. TS. L Thc Cn ng gp nhiu kin qu bu
tc gi hon tt bn tho ln cui. Xin chn thnh cm n cc ng
nghip, c bit l PGS. TS. Nguyn Vn Tun, PGS. TS. Tt Tc,
TS. Nguyn Vn Thng v nhng nhn xt v nhng kin gp cho bn
tho ca chng ti.
y l gio trnh !c xut bn ln u nn kh trnh khi nhng
sai st v khim khuyt. Rt mong s gp ca c gi nng cao cht
l!ng ca gio trnh trong nhng ln xut bn sau.

GS. TS. H Vn Khi

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Li ni u 7

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Ch!ng 1- Ti nguyn n!c... 7

Ch!ng 1

TAI NGUYN N!C
VA VN S DUNG TAI NGUYN N!C

1.1. Ti nguyn n!c v vn khai thc ti nguyn n!c

N!c l yu t quyt nh n s tn ti v pht trin mi tr!ng sng. N!c l
mt loi ti nguyn thin nhin qu gi v c hn, l ng lc ch yu chi phi mi
hot ng dn sinh kinh t ca con ng!i. N!c !c s dng rng ri trong sn xut
nng nghip, thy in, giao thng vn ti, chn nui, thu sn v.v... Bi vy, ti
nguyn n!c c gi tr kinh t v !c coi l mt loi hng ho.
N!c l loi ti nguyn c th ti to !c v cn phi s dng mt cch hp l
duy tr kh nng ti to ca n.
Trn hnh tinh chng ta n!c tn ti d!i nhng dng khc nhau: N!c trn tri
t, ngoi i d!ng, cc sng sui, h ao, cc h cha nhn to, n!c ngm, trong
khng kh, bng tuyt v cc dng lin kt khc. Theo V. I. Vernatske, khi l!ng
n!c trn tri t vo khong 1,46 t km
3
, trong n!c trong i d!ng chim
khong 1,37 t km
3
.
S phn b n!c trn hnh tinh chng ta theo s liu !c tnh ca UNESCO nm
1978 (bng 1-1) nh! sau: Tng l!ng n!c trn tri t vo khong 1.385.984.610 km
3

trong n!c trong i d!ng vo khong 1.338.000.000 km
3
chim 96,5%. N!c
ngt trn tri t chim t l rt nh ch vo khong 2,5%. N!c ngt phn b n!c
ngm, n!c mt, dng bng tuyt v cc dng khc, trong l!ng n!c dng bng
tuyt chim t l cao nht (xp x 70%), n!c ngt cc tng ngm d!i t chim t
l vo khong 30,1%, trong khi n!c trong h thng sng sui ch chim khong
0,006% tng l!ng n!c ngt trn tri t, mt t l rt nh.
H thng tun hon n!c c th m t trn hnh (1-1). N!c trn tri t tn ti
trong mt khong khng gian gi l thu quyn. N!c vn ng trong thu quyn qua
nhng con !ng v cng phc tp cu to thnh tun hon n!c cn gi l chu trnh
thu vn.
N!c bc hi t cc i d!ng v lc a tr thnh mt b phn ca kh quyn.
Hi n!c !c vn chuyn vo bu khng kh, bc ln cao cho n khi chng ng!ng
kt v ri tr li mt t hoc mt bin. L!ng n!c ri xung mt t mt phn b gi

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li bi cy ci, chy trn trn mt t thnh dng chy trn s!n dc, thm xung t,
chy trong t thnh dng chy st mt t v chy vo cc dng sng thnh dng
chy mt. Phn ln l!ng n!c b gi li bi thm ph thc vt v dng chy mt s
quay tr li bu kh quyn qua con !ng bc hi v bc thot hi. L!ng n!c ngm
trong t c th thm su hn xung nhng lp t bn d!i cp n!c cho cc tng
n!c ngm v sau xut l thnh cc dng sui hoc chy dn vo sng ngi thnh
dng chy mt v cui cng ra bin hoc bc hi vo kh quyn.
C th coi qu trnh tun hon n!c l mt h thng thu vn, thc cht l qu
trnh chuyn t m!a sang dng chy vi cc thnh phn l n!c ri, bc hi, dng
chy v cc pha khc nhau ca chu trnh. Cc thnh phn ny c th !c tp hp
thnh cc h thng con ca chu trnh ln. Chu trnh vng tun hon ton cu !c m
t trn hnh (1-1). Theo s tun hon n!c trn hnh (1-1) c nhn xt nh! sau:
- T!ng ng vi 100 n v m!a trn lc a c 38 n v chy dng chy mt ra
bin; 1 n v chy ngm ra bin; 61 n v bc hi t lc a. R rng l!ng bc hi
t mt t l rt ln so vi l!ng n!c mt v l!ng n!c ngm chy ra bin.
- Trn i d!ng, t!ng ng vi 385 n v m!a xung i d!ng c 424 n v
bc hi t i d!ng.
Bng 1-1: c l!ng n!c trn tri t
Hng mc
Din tch
(10
6
km
2
)
Th tch
(km
3
)
Phn trm ca
tng l!ng n!c
Phn trm
ca n!c ngt
1. i d!ng 361,3 1.338.000.000 96,5
2. N!c ngm
- Nuc ngt 134,8 10.530.000 0,76 30,1
- N!c nhim mn 134,8 12.870.000 0,93
- L!ng m trong t 82,0 16.500 0,0012 0,05
3. Bng tuyt
- Bng cc cc 16,0 24.023.500 1.7 68,6
- Cc loi bng tuyt khc 0,3 340.600 0,025 1,0
4. H, m
- N!c ngt 1,2 91.000 0,007 0,26
- Nhim mn 0,8 85.400 0,006
- m ly 2,7 11.470 0,0008 0,03
5. Sng ngi 148,8 2.120 0,0002 0,006
6. N!c sinh hc 510,0 1.120 0,0001 0,003
7. N!c trong kh quyn 510,0 12.900 0,001 0,04
Tng cng 510,0 1.385.984.610 100
N!c ngt 148,8 35.029.210 2,5 100
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Thm
Dng chy mt
Dng chy st mt
Dng chy ngm
Dng chy mt chy ra bin
38
M!a ri xung mt t
100

Bc hi t lc a
61
Bc hi t i d!ng
424
M!a ri xung i d!ng
385
L!ng m trong khng kh
39
Mc n!c ngm
H cha
Tng khng thm
Dng chy ngm chy ra bin
1

Vng tun hon n!c v cn bng n!c ton cu vi 100 n v m!a trn lc a
Hnh 1-1: S cn bng n!c
(Chow V.T., David R. Madment v Larry W. Mays, Thy vn ng dng,
Hu Thnh v Vn Ton dch, Nh xut bn Gio dc, 1994)

Ghi ch: T!ng ng vi 100 n v m!a trn lc a c 38 n v dng chy mt ra bin;
1 n v chy ngm ra bin; 61 n v bc hi t lc a; t!ng ng c 385 n v m!a xung
i d!ng v 424 n v bc hi t i d!ng.

S phn b theo khng gian rt khng u. Trn tri t c vng c l!ng m!a
kh phong ph, nh!ng li c nhng vng kh hn. Cc vng nhiu m!a (l!ng m!a >
2000 mm trong nm) trn th gii phn b nh! sau:
! Chu u: vng ni Anp, Ccaz, Nauy;
! Chu : Vit Nam (tr mt s vng nh! chu th Cu Long, Cao Bng, Lng
Sn...), Innxia, Philipin, Nht Bn, Malaixia, Campuchia v.v...).
Mt trong nhng c th quan trng na l: Ngun n!c c tr l!ng hng nm
khng phi l v tn, s bin i ca n khng v!t qua mt gii hn no v khng
ph thuc vo mong mun ca con ng!i.

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N!c th!ng phn b khng u theo khng gian v thi gian, dn n s khng
ph hp gia ti nguyn n!c v yu cu s dng ca con ng!i.
Ti nguyn n!c !c nh gi bi ba c tr!ng quan trng: L!ng, cht l!ng
v ng thi ca n:
! L!ng n!c: tng l!ng n!c sinh ra trong mt khong thi gian mt nm
hoc mt thi k no trong nm. N biu th mc phong ph ca ti
nguyn n!c trn mt vng lnh th.
! Cht l!ng n!c: bao gm cc c tr!ng v hm l!ng ca cc cht ho tan
v khng ho tan trong n!c (c li hoc c hi theo tiu chun s dng ca
i t!ng s dng n!c).
! ng thi ca n!c !c nh gi bi s thay i ca cc c tr!ng dng
chy theo thi gian, s trao i n!c gia cc khu vc cha n!c, s vn
chuyn v quy lut chuyn ng ca n!c trong sng, s chuyn ng ca
n!c ngm, cc qu trnh trao i cht ho tan, truyn mn v.v...

Ngun n!c trn th gii l rt ln, nh!ng n!c ngt mi l yu cu c bn cho
hot ng dn sinh kinh t ca con ng!i. N!c ngt trn th gii dng khai thc
!c c tr l!ng khng ln, chim khong trn d!i 1% tng l!ng n!c c trn tri
t. Khi s pht trin dn sinh kinh t cn mc thp, n!c ch mi !c coi l mi
tr!ng cn thit cho s sng ca con ng!i. Trong qu trnh pht trin, cng ngy cng
c s mt cn i gia nhu cu dng n!c v ngun n!c. D!i tc ng cc hot
ng kinh t x hi ca con ng!i, ngun n!c ngy cng c nguy c b suy thoi v
cn kit, khi n!c !c coi l mt loi ti nguyn qu cn !c bo v v qun l.
Cc lut n!c ra i v cng vi n mi quc gia u c mt t chc qun l
nghim ngt loi ti nguyn ny.

1.2. Khi nim v h thng ngun n!c v c im ca n
1.2.1. H thng ngun n!c
Qu trnh khai thc ngun n!c hnh thnh h thng cc cng trnh thu li.
Nhng cng trnh thu li !c xy dng lm thay i ng k nhng c im t
nhin ca h thng ngun n!c. Mc khai thc ngun n!c cng ln th s thay i
thuc tnh ti nguyn n!c cng ln v chnh n li nh h!ng n qu trnh khai thc
s dng n!c ca con ng!i. Chnh v vy, khi lp cc quy hoch khai thc ngun
n!c cn xem xt s tc ng qua li gia ti nguyn n!c, ph!ng thc khai thc v
cc bin php cng trnh. Bi vy, theo quan im h thng ng!i ta nh ngha h
thng ngun n!c nh! sau:
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H thng ngun n!c l mt h thng phc tp bao gm ti nguyn n!c, cc
bin php khai thc v bo v ngun n!c, cc yu cu v n!c cng vi mi quan h
t!ng tc gia chng cng vi s tc ng ca mi tr!ng ln n
(1) Ngun n!c !c nh gi bi cc c tr!ng sau: L!ng v phn b ca n
theo khng gian v thi gian; Cht l!ng n!c; ng thi ca n!c v cht l!ng
n!c.
(2) Cc bin php khai thc v bo v ngun n!c: Bao gm cc cng trnh
thu li, cc bin php ci to v bo v ngun n!c, bao gm c bin php cng trnh
v phi cng trnh, !c cu trc tu thuc vo mc ch khai thc v bo v
ngun n!c.
(3) Cc yu cu v n!c: Bao gm cc h dng n!c, cc yu cu v mc bo
m phng chng l lt, ng hn, cc yu cu v bo v hoc ci to mi tr!ng cng
cc yu cu dng n!c khc.
Tc ng ca mi tr!ng l nhng tc ng v hot ng dn sinh kinh t, hot
ng ca con ng!i (khng k cc tc ng v khai thc ngun n!c theo quy hoch).
Nhng tc ng bao gm nh h!ng ca cc bin php canh tc lm thay i mt
m v lng dn, s tc ng khng c thc vo h thng cc cng trnh thy li v.v...
1.2.2. c im ca h thng ngun n!c
Nghin cu v h thng ngun n!c cn ch nhng c im chnh ca n, c
th h thng li nh! sau.
(1) H thng ngun n!c l mt h thng phc tp, tn ti mt s l!ng cc
tham s v cc mi quan h gia chng. H thng ngun n!c b tc ng mnh m
bi yu t mi tr!ng.
(2) H thng ngun n!c l h bt nh, c nhiu yu t bt nh, bao gm:
+ Cc bin vo, bin ra v bin trng thi l nhng bin ngu nhin. Quy
lut ngu nhin ca cc bin s nh h!ng n cht l!ng ca cc thit
k, quy hoch v iu khin h thng ngun n!c.
+ Cc thng tin v h thng l khng y , hoc c th cng rt kh c th
phn tch !c ht cc thuc tnh ca h thng khi lp cc quy hoch khai
thc. Cc thng tin bao gm:
- Cc ti liu o c v kh t!ng thy vn.
- Cc ti liu v yu cu n!c trong t!ng lai.
- Cc thng tin v nh h!ng tc ng ca mi tr!ng v.v...
(3) S hiu bit khng y ca con ng!i nghin cu v h thng, bao gm
cc quy lut vt l ca ngun n!c, cc "tim nng" ca h thng v cc nh h!ng
ca cc bin php cng trnh n s thay i trng thi ca h thng ngun n!c v.v...

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(4) Bt ng v mc tiu, th hin cc mt:
+ Mc tiu khai thc c th ch!a !c t ra mt cch r rng ngay t u,
v n ch !c hnh thnh trong qu trnh tip cn h thng.
+ a mc tiu trong khai thc v qun l ngun n!c.
+ H thng ngun n!c l h thng lun lun trng thi cn bng tm thi.
Nhng bin i v kh hu, mt m v cc tc ng t bin ca con
ng!i lm h thng ngun n!c thay i t trng thi cn bng ny sang
trng thi cn bng khc. Do nhng thng tin hin ti v h thng
khng phn nh nhng quy lut ca t!ng lai.

(5) H thng ngun n!c l h thng c cu trc yu, bi v:
+ Cc mi quan h trong h thng rt kh th hin bng cc biu thc ton
hc, thm ch khng th hin !c.
+ Kh kim sot !c cc tc ng ca mi tr!ng, c bit l cc tc ng
ca con ng!i.

Vi nhng c im trn ca h thng ngun n!c, n tr thnh mt i t!ng
nghin cu ca l thuyt phn tch h thng.

1.3. Nhu cu n!c dng v nhu cu n!c sinh thi

N!c l nhu cu khng th thiu v l nguyn nhn ch yu ca s pht trin
lch s loi ng!i. Trong qu trnh pht trin, bng cc bin php thy li con ng!i
lm thay i trng thi t nhin ca ngun n!c nhm tho mn cc yu cu v n!c
ngy cng tng ca x hi loi ng!i. Cc bin php thy li cng a dng, bao gm:
H cha, p dng n!c, h thng , h thng cc trm bm v cng t!i tiu, cng
ngn mn v.v... Cc bin php thy li ngy cng pht trin s lm thay i mnh m
ch t nhin ca dng chy sng ngi.

1.3.1. Yu cu dng n!c v phn loi
Khai thc ngun n!c c th theo nhng mc ch khc nhau: cp n!c t!i, cp
n!c cho cng nghip, cp n!c cho sinh hot, pht in, giao thng thy, du lch, ci
to mi tr!ng, phng chng l lt, tiu ng, ln bin v.v..., c th gi chung l cc
yu cu v n!c. Yu cu v n!c rt a dng v c th chia thnh cc nhm nh! sau.
1. Yu cu cp n!c
Bao gm cc dng sau:
- Cp n!c t!i
- Cp n!c sinh hot
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- Cp n!c phc v cng nghip
Cc h dng n!c loi ny tiu hao mt l!ng n!c kh ln v hu nh! khng
hon li hoc hon li rt t nn th!ng gi l cc h tiu hao n!c.
2. Yu cu s dng n!c
Bao gm cc dng sau:
- Khai thc thu nng
- Giao thng thu
- Pht trin du lch
- Nui trng thu sn
Cc h dng n!c loi ny khng tiu hao hoc tiu hao rt t l!ng n!c m n
!c s dng nn th!ng gi l cc h s dng n!c.
3. Yu cu v ci to v bo v mi tr!ng
Bao gm cc dng sau:
- Phng chng l lt v tiu thot n!c
- X l n!c thi v chng nhim ngun n!c
- Ci to mi tr!ng sinh thi
- Chnh tr sng v bo v b

1.3.2. Nhu cu n!c sinh thi
Theo quan im pht trin bn vng, khai thc ngun n!c phi m bo khng
lm cn kit, suy thoi ngun n!c v m bo cn bng sinh thi. Nhng bin php
khai thc ngun n!c nhm mc ch pht trin kinh t x hi v phc v i sng ca
con ng!i c th lm thay i ng k ngun n!c c v l!ng, cht l!ng v ng
thi ca n dn n s thay i cn bng n!c trn l!u vc sng. S thay i cn bng
n!c t nhin c th c li hoc c hi cho mi tr!ng sinh thi. Bi vy, pht trin
ngun n!c phi h!ng ti s thay i c li v cn bng sinh thi ca l!u vc sng.
Nhu cu n!c sinh thi !c coi l mt trong nhng tiu ch nh gi cc d n pht
trin ngun n!c.
Nhu cu n!c sinh thi !c xem xt theo cc mc ch nh! sau:
- m bo cn bng sinh thi t nhin.
- Ti to mt phn sinh thi do tc ng xu ca s dng n!c ca con ng!i.
- Ci to hoc to ra mt mi tr!ng sinh thi mi c li cho con ng!i.
Theo quan im hin i, mc ch khai thc ti nguyn n!c khng ch v mc
tiu tng tr!ng kinh t m cn h!ng ti s m bo cht l!ng mi tr!ng sng i
vi con ng!i. Bi vy, nhu cu n!c cho sinh thi !c !u tin hng u trong cc
quy hoch v qun l ngun n!c.

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Vic xc nh yu cu n!c sinh thi th!ng rt kh khn v ph thuc vo iu
kin c th ca bi ton quy hoch t ra.
Hin nay, trn th gii ng!i ta ni nhiu n khi nim ng!ng khai thc.
Vit Nam, vn ng!ng khai thc cng !c cp n trong nhng nm gn
y, tuy nhin ch!a c mt chun mc cho nhng quy nh v ng!ng khai thc. i
vi l!u vc sng c mc khai thc ln th!ng l!u cn quy nh l!u l!ng ti
thiu cn x xung h du trong thi k ma kit. Hin nay, n!c ta th!ng chn l!u
l!ng ny t!ng ng vi mt tn sut quy nh no . Tn sut ny hin nay th!ng
ly bng 90%.

1.4. c im chung v ti nguyn n!c ca Vit Nam

N!c ta l mt trong nhng n!c c ti nguyn n!c phong ph trn th gii,
cng l n!c c tr l!ng n!c di do khu vc chu .
Vit Nam c 16 l!u vc sng c din tch l!u vc ln hn 2.000 km
2
, trong c
10 l!u vc c din tch ln hn 10.000 km
2
, l cc sng: Hng-Thi Bnh, Bng
Giang-K Cng, M, C, Thu Bn, Ba, ng Nai, Cu Long, Srpok, S San (xem
bng 1-2). Theo thng k bng 1-2 ch c hai sng ln l sng Thu Bn v sng Ba
c ton b din tch tp trung n!c nm chn vn trn lnh th Vit Nam. Hu ht cc
sng c ca sng ra b bin thuc lnh th Vit nam (tr sng Bng Giang-K
Cng, sng S San v sng Srpok).
a hnh ni non v kh hu nhit i gi ma tc ng su sc ti l!ng v phn
phi l!ng n!c trong nm. Ti nguyn n!c ca Vit Nam c nhng c im chnh
nh! sau:
1) Phn b khng u theo khng gian v thi gian. Trn lnh th c nhng vng
n!c rt phong ph: l!ng m!a trung bnh nm xp x 2000 mm, c ni l!ng m!a
trung bnh nm trn 3800 mm. Nh!ng cng c vng m!a rt nh, l!ng m!a hng nm
t d!i 1500 mm, c bit ch t xp x 800mm (vng Phan Rang). L!ng dng
chy hng nm ch yu tp trung vo khong 3 thng ma l, chim 80% tng l!ng
dng chy hng nm, ma kit ko di gy kh khn cho cp n!c.
2) N!c ta c tng din tch l 331.000 km
2
th c n 75% din tch l i ni
v tp trung ch yu min Bc, Ty Nguyn v khu vc min Trung, cn li l ng
bng ph sa v chu th, ch yu l ng bng sng Hng v sng Cu Long.
3) a hnh min ni to ra tim nng ng k v thu in v d tr n!c. Tuy
nhin cng l nguyn nhn gy l, l qut v xi mn t.
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4) L, ng l hin t!ng xy ra th!ng xuyn gy thit hi ln cho nn kinh t
quc dn.
Vng ng bng ven bin, hin t!ng nhim mn cng gy kh khn cho sn
xut nng nghip v cp n!c cho nng thn.

1.4.1. Ti nguyn n!c mt
Vit Nam l mt trong nhng n!c c h thng sng ngi chng cht l mt
trng thi thun li cung cp ngun n!c mt. Tng l!ng n!c bnh qun hng nm
chy trn cc sng sui Vit Nam k c t ngoi lnh th chy vo theo s liu nh
gi ca WB v UNDP (Vit Nam - nh gi tng quan ngnh thy li, Bo co chnh
do WB, ADB, FAO, UNDP, NGO v IWRP lp, 1996) l 879 t m
3
, trong 75%
l!ng n!c ny thuc l!u vc sng Hng v sng M Kng. Theo kt qu nghin cu
ca ti KC-12 (1995) con s ny l 835 t m
3
. So vi cc n!c lng ging, l!ng
n!c c dng trn u ng!i (bng l!ng n!c chy hng nm ca mt n!c chia cho
dn s) n!c ta thuc loi cao trong khu vc.
Bng 1-2: Thng k din tch l!u vc 10 sng ln Vit Nam
(Vit Nam - nh gi tng quan ngnh thy li, Bo co chnh do WB,
ADB, FAO, UNDP, NGO v IWRP lp, 1996, trang 15)
Phn din tch l!u vc Vit Nam
TT L!u vc sng Din tch tng cng (km
2
)
Din tch (km
2
) T l %
1 Bng Giang-K Cng 12.880 11.200 87
2 Sng Hng-Thi Bnh 169.000 86.660 51
3 Sng M 28.490 17.810 63
4 Sng C 27.200 17.730 65
5 Sng Thu Bn 10.496 10.496 100
6 Sng Ba 13.900 13.900 100
7 Sng ng Nai 42.655 36.261 85
8 Sng Cu Long 795.000 72.000 9
9 Sng Srpok - 39.000 -
10 Sng S san - 18.200 -

Vit Nam hu nh! nm cui h l!u cc sng ln: Sng Hng, sng M Kng,
sng M, sng C, sng ng Nai. Chng hn: Sng M Kng c 90% din tch l!u
vc nm n!c ngoi v cng 90% lung n!c sng M Kng chy vo Vit Nam t
n!c ngoi; Sng Hng c gn 50% din tch l!u vc nm Trung Quc v 30%
l!ng n!c hng nm bt ngun t Trung quc. Do , kh nng c n!c, c bit l
ma kh, khi cc n!c vng th!ng ngun gia tng s dng ngun n!c l iu nm
ngoi tm kim sot ca Vit Nam.

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Vit Nam l mt trong nhng n!c nm trong vng nhit i chu tc ng mnh
m ca cc hnh th thi tit gy m!a ln. V vy, tnh trng l lt l mi e da
th!ng xuyn i vi cc vng dn c! nm h l!u cc sng ln, c bit l vng
ng bng Bc B v ng bng sng Cu Long l hai vng ng dn nht Vit Nam
nm vng ca sng ca hai sng ln l sng Hng v sng M Kng. Hng nm, l
ca hai sng lun e da cuc sng ca hng triu ng!i vng chu th hai sng ny.
L qut cng l mi him ho i vi cc vng dn c! thuc cc tnh min ni.
L lt Vit Nam c nhng c im chnh nh! sau:
1. Vit Nam l mt trong nhng n!c nm trong vng nhit i chu tc ng
mnh m ca bo v cc hnh th thi tit gy m!a ln, l nguyn nhn gy ra tnh
trng l lt nghim trng cho vng h du sng.
2. Hu ht cc sng ln u c ca sng nm trong lnh th Vit Nam. Thy
triu v s din bin phc tp vng ca sng lm tng tnh nghim trng ca l lt.
3. a s cc sng sui c dc ln, l tp trung nhanh gy kh khn cho cng
tc phng trnh l.
4. Hu ht khu vc dn c! u nm vng trng th!ng xuyn b ng lt v b
l e da.
5. L qut th!ng xuyn xy ra gy thm ho cho cc khu dn c! thuc trung du
v min ni.
Do c im a hnh, c im sng ngi v s hnh thnh l ca cc vng khc
nhau nn cng tc quy hoch phng chng l ca cc vng cng c nhng c th
khc nhau.
n!c ta c n 70% s dn nm trong vng th!ng xuyn b e da bi l lt.
Bi vy, phng chng l l mt trong nhng vn !c nh n!c quan tm c bit.
Do c im kh hu nn s phn b dng chy trong nm rt khng u. Tng
l!ng dng chy trong 3 n 5 thng ma l chim khong t 70% n 80% l!ng
dng chy trong nm, trong khi trong sut 7 n 9 thng ma kit t l ny ch vo
khong 20% n 30%.
Tnh trng nhim n!c mt trong nhng nm gn y gia tng theo nhp iu
pht trin cng nghip. Tnh trng nhim ngun n!c mt r rng nht cc khu
th nh! H Ni, Thnh ph H Ch Minh. Tc pht trin kinh t cao l nguy c lm
xu i cht l!ng ngun n!c trn cc sng sui.
Hin t!ng xm nhp mn vng ven bin l vn chnh cn phi gii quyt i
vi vng ng bng ven bin, c bit l ng bng sng Cu Long.

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1.4.2. Ti nguyn n!c ngm
Tr l!ng n!c ngm Vit Nam kh phong ph. Tuy nhin, do c l!ng n!c
mt kh phong ph nn n!c ngm ch!a !c khai thc nhiu. L!ng n!c ngm !c
khai thc chim t l vo khong 2% tr l!ng n!c ngm v chim khong 14% tng
l!ng n!c ngm c th khai thc !c. Vic khai thc n!c ngm ch yu ti cc
thnh ph ln nh! H Ni v Thnh ph H Ch Minh. Ti y, n!c ngm !c khai
thc cung cp 30% nhu cu n!c thnh ph.
Ni chung, cht l!ng n!c ngm rt tt. Tuy nhin, do nhim ngun n!c mt
v tnh trng khai thc khng hp l c th l xu i cht l!ng ngun n!c ngm
trong t!ng lai.

1.4.3. Nhng nt chnh v pht trin ngun n!c trong t!ng lai
1.4.3.1. Nhu cu cp n!c
Hin nay, n!c !c s dng ch yu cho pht trin nng nghip. Trong t!ng
lai khi cng nghip pht trin mnh, nhp th ho tng nhanh th nhu cu cp
n!c cho cng nghip s chim t trng ln. Thm vo tnh trng nhim ngun
n!c do s dng n!c s c th rt nghim trng nu khng c bin php qun l
hiu qu.
N!c s dng cho nng thn hin nay c cht l!ng thp c v l!ng v cht. V
vy, n!c sch cho nng thn cng cn cp n trong cc quy hoch trong t!ng
lai. Vng nng thn ng bng sng Cu Long v cc vng ni cao l nhng i t!ng
cn !c xem xt !u tin trong chin l!c pht trin ngun n!c sch cho nng thn.
1.4.3.2. Pht trin nng l!ng
Pht trin thu nng hin ang chim t trng ln trong h thng nng l!ng ca
Vit Nam. T trng ny cn gi trong nhiu nm na. Hin nay, cc nh my thy
in Ho Bnh, Thc B, a Nhim, Tr An, Yaly, Thc M... !c xy dng. Cc
h cha pht in Tuyn Quang, S San 3, Bn V... ang !c xy dng; thy in
Sn La v mt s cng trnh thu in khc ang chun b khi cng v mt lot cc
nh my thy in khc s !c xy dng trong vng 15 nm ti. Trong bng (1-3)
thng k mt s cng trnh thy in ln v s !c xy dng trong nhng nm ti.

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Bng 1-3: Mt s cng trnh thy in hin c v d kin !c xy dng
Cng trnh hin c hoc ang xy dng Cc cng trnh d kin
Cng trnh L!u vc
Cng sut lp my
(MW)
Cng trnh L!u vc
Cng sut lp my
(MW)
Ho Bnh S. 1920 S San 3 S. S San 273
Thc B S. Chy 108 S San 3A S. S San 100
Tuyn Quang S.L 342 S San 4 S. S San 330
Sn La S. 2400 Cn n S.ng Nai 60
Thc M S. B 150 Hm Thun S. ng Nai 34
Sng Hinh S. Ba 66 a Mi S. ng Nai 36
a Nhim S. ng Nai 160 ng Nai 4 S. ng Nai 64
Tr An S. ng Nai 420 Bn V S. C -
Yaly S. S San 700 Ca t Sng M 120
Plei Krong S. S San 120

Hnh 1-2: H thng h cha pht in trn sng S San
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1.4.3.3. Phng chng l lt
N!c ta nm trong vng nhit i gi ma, th!ng xuyn c bo xy ra. a
hnh i ni li rt phc tp nn l lt xy ra th!ng xuyn v gy thit hi ln. Bi
vy, cc bin php phng chng l lt !c nh n!c rt quan tm.
Vng Bc B hnh thnh h thng iu rt s, tuy nhin l lt vn l
him ho i vi vng ng bng ng dn ny. Hin ny, cc h cha Ho Bnh,
Thc B gp phn gim thit hi do l gy ra nh!ng cng ch c kh nng khng
ch trn l 125 nm xut hin mt ln. Trong chin l!c phng chng l lt sng
Hng - Thi Bnh, cc bin php h cha, trong c cc h cha Sn La, Lai Chu,
Tuyn Quang s tip tc !c xy dng v m nhim chng l vi trn l 500 nm
xut hin mt ln. Cc bin php no vt chnh tr lng sng cng !c cp trong
chin l!c phng l h du.
i vi vng ng bng sng Cu Long, nhng bin php gim thiu thit hi do
l gy ra !c nghin cu v p dng trong nhng nm gn y, l bin php
chuyn n!c sang bin Ty. Tuy nhin, chin l!c chung i vi vng ny l chung
sng vi l v khai thc cc ngun li t l.
i vi cc l!u vc sng min Trung, l th!ng c c!ng ln v xy ra rt c
lit. Cc bin php h cha !c p dng gim thiu thit hi. V lu di th
nhng bin php ny cng khng cho hiu qu cao v kh nng xy dng cc h cha
ln l rt t.

1.4.4. Hin trng v khai thc v qun l ngun n!c Vit Nam
Vic lp cc quy hoch ngun n!c n!c ta bt u t nhng nm 60.
Nhng quy hoch ln nh! quy hoch khai thc ngun n!c sng Hng, cc quy hoch
phng l, tiu ng v cp n!c !c thc hin vi mt s l!ng ln. Nhng d n
quy hoch !c thc hin t nm 1960 n nay lm thay i cn bn h thng
ngun n!c n!c ta v mang li hiu qu cao cho pht trin nng nghip, thy nng
v phng chng l lt. Nh n!c ch u t! cho pht trin thy li vi quy m
ln, to ra mt h thng cng trnh thy li a dng v rng khp trn ton lnh th.
C th tm tt cc bin php thy li ch yu nh! sau:
(1) Nng cp, tu b v pht trin h thng iu c, nhm nng cao hiu qu
chng l cho vng ng bng chu th Bc B v cc tnh thuc khu vc min Trung.
(2) Xy dng cc h cha, trong c c cc h cha ln, cc h cha va v
nh. Cc h cha ln th!ng c nhim v iu tit n!c pht in kt hp phng l v
cp n!c. Cc h cha nh th!ng ch c nhim v cp n!c cho nng nghip. Khai
thc thy nng t cc h cha chim t trng ln trong h thng nng l!ng Vit Nam.
Theo thng k ca Cc Qun l n!c v cng trnh thy li (nay l Cc Thy li) B
Nng nghip v Pht trin nng thn nm 1998, n!c ta hin nay c hn 60 h cha

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c dung tch trn 10 triu m
3
. Tng dung tch cha trong cc h phc v t!i l
5,2 t m
3
. Ngoi ra cn c cc h thng thy nng ly n!c trc tip t nhng sng ln
nh! h thng Bc H!ng Hi, sng Chu, Bi Th!ng v.v...
(3) Xy dng cc trm bm t!i, tiu hoc t!i tiu kt hp, cc cng ly n!c t!i
tiu vng ng bng. ng thi xy dng cc h thng cng ngn mn vng ca sng.
Vi mc khai thc ngun n!c nh! hin nay c du hiu v s suy thoi
ngun n!c trn cc l!u vc sng n!c ta. Bi vy, vn quy hoch s dng hp l
ngun n!c n lc phi xem xt mt cch nghim tc. Quy hoch khai thc ti
nguyn n!c cn !c xem xt theo quan im h thng vi s tip cn vi nhng
ph!ng php hin i khi lp cc quy hoch pht trin ngun n!c.
Nhng tn ti trong cng tc lp quy hoch ngun n!c v cng tc qun l
ngun n!c hin nay l:
! Qun l ngun n!c !c cp n trong cng tc quy hoch pht
trin ngun n!c. Tuy nhin, hin ch!a c cc m hnh hiu qu !c
s dng trong cng tc qun l. H thng chnh sch trong qun l
ngun n!c chm !a vo thc t sn xut.
! Nhng quy hoch chin l!c cho nhng vng quan trng nh! ng
bng sng Cu Long, Ty Nguyn, ng bng Bc B v cc quy hoch
phng chng l cn ang giai on nghin cu nhm hon chnh cc
quy hoch l!u vc sng.

Trong t!ng lai Vit Nam phi tng c!ng hn na cng tc qun l ngun n!c
c bit l qun l l!u vc sng. Nhng quy hoch ln thuc ng bng sng Hng,
ng bng sng Cu Long, vng ven bin min Trung v Ty Nguyn vn cn tip tc
!c nghin cu.
Mt s nh h!ng v quy hoch phng l cho h du sng Hng
Hin trng h thng cng trnh phng chng l sng Hng ch!a p ng yu cu
phng chng l cho h du. C th l:
! H thng - Sng l h thng cng trnh ch lc chng l cho h du sng
Hng vn tim n nhng nguy c s c khi c mc n!c cao.
! Kh nng thot l ca h thng sng ngi b suy gim do:
- Lng sng b thu hp
- Ca sng b bi lp v suy thoi
- Xut hin nhiu vt cn
- Xi l v bi lp cc b
- Hot ng ca h thng tiu ni ng b sung gy n!c dnh
! Do kh nng thot l ca h thng sng ngi b suy gim lm gim hiu qu
ct l ca h thng h cha th!ng ngun.
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Do nhng l do trn, quy hoch h thng phng l sng Hng vn l vn !c
tip tc nghin cu. Ph!ng h!ng quy hoch phng l sng Hng c th tm tt nh! sau:
1. Xy dng cc h cha ln trn th!ng ngun (Tuyn Quang v Sn La, Lai Chu...).
2. Tm gii php lm tng kh nng thot l vng ca sng.
3. No vt lng sng v bo v b.
4. Tng c!ng cng c h thng iu.
5. Nghin cu cc ph!ng n phn chm l, phn tn l.
6. Nng cao cht l!ng d bo thu vn theo h!ng hin i ho.
7. Nng cao hiu qu qun l vn hnh phng chng l.
8. Bo v rng v chng xi mn.

Vn phng l ng bng sng Cu Long
L!u vc sng M Kng c din tch vo khong 795.000 km
2
, trong din tch
l!u vc thuc a phn Vit Nam chim 10% din tch l!u vc. ng bng vng chu
th sng Cu Long thuc sng M Kng c din tch 39.000 km
2
, dn s hn 15 triu
ng!i l vng th!ng xuyn b ng v l e da.
L ln trn h thng sng Cu Long th!ng xut hin vo thng 7, 12 hng nm,
l ng bng sng Cu Long l loi l hin, ln chm v rt chm. L ng bng sng
Cu Long ko di v gy din ngp ln (25% din tch chu th). Vng ng bng
sng Cu Long thp, khng c (tr mt s b bao) nn khng kim sot !c l,
vng ngp l cng thng nht l T gic Long Xuyn v ng Thp M!i.
Hin trng h thng cng trnh phng l c th tm tt nh! sau:
! Ch c cc bao mt s vng ngp
! hnh thnh h thng knh thot l cho vng T gic Long Xuyn v
ng Thp M!i. H thng cng trnh knh thot l !c b tr bin gii
vi Campuchia v thot l ra bin Ty.
! H thng knh rch ng bng sng Cu Long rt ln nh!ng kh nng thot
l ca h thng sng ngi rt hn ch do vng ngp l cao trnh thp, hin
t!ng thu triu rt phc tp. Hin t!ng xi l c th pht trin rt phc tp
khi tin hnh xy dng cc bao hoc cc knh thot l.
Ph!ng h!ng quy hoch phng chng l cho ng bng sng Cu Long l:
1) Ph!ng chm chung: Va nghin cu cc bin php phng l va thc
hin ph!ng chm chung sng vi l v khai thc ngun ti nguyn l.
2) Tm gii php thot l vng ng bng.
3) No vt lng sng v bo v b.
4) Nghin cu kh nng xy dng bao mt s vng dn c!
5) Quy hoch hp l cc cm dn c! vng ngp l
6) Nng cao cht l!ng d bo thy vn
7) Tng c!ng hiu qu kim sot l l!u vc sng vi s hp tc cht ch
gia cc quc gia trn l!u vc sng. Cn pht huy hiu lc ca U ban
sng M Kng.

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Ch!ng 2

QUY HOACH VA QUN L NGUN N!C

2.1. Nhim v ca quy hoch v qun l ngun n!c

Quy hoch ngun n!c l s hoch nh chin l!c s dng n!c mt cch hp
l ca mt quc gia, trn mt vng lnh th hoc mt l!u vc sng, bao gm chin
l!c u t! pht trin ngun n!c v ph!ng thc qun l ngun n!c nhm p ng
cc yu cu v n!c v m bo s pht trin bn vng.
Quy hoch v qun l ngun n!c l lnh vc khoa hc kh phc tp. Trong thi
i hin nay, vic khai thc ngun n!c lin quan khng nhng phi m bo s u
t! c hiu qu m cn phi m bo s pht trin bn vng. Ngun n!c trn hnh tinh
cng ngy cng cn kit so vi s pht trin dn s v mc yu cu ngy cng cao
ca cc ngnh dng n!c c v s l!ng v cht l!ng. Chnh v vy trong cc quy
hoch khai thc ngun n!c th!ng tn ti cc mu thun: mu thun gia cc ngnh
dng n!c, mu thun gia khai thc v bo v mi tr!ng, mu thun gia s dng
n!c vi s m bo pht trin bn vng. Nu tr!c y, theo quan im truyn thng,
khai thc ngun n!c phi m bo ti !u v mt u t!, th ngy ny vn phn tch
kinh t ch l mt loi tiu chun nh gi d n quy hoch. Khi phi m bo s pht
trin bn vng trong qu trnh pht trin ngun n!c th vn t ra khng phi tm
ph!ng n ti !u m cn phi tm ph!ng n hp l nht - l ph!ng n ti !u kinh t
v tha mn cc yu cu pht trin bn vng.
Nhim v ca cc quy hoch s dng n!c l s thit lp mt cn bng hp l
vi h thng ngun n!c theo cc tiu chun !c quy nh bi cc mc ch khai
thc v qun l ngun n!c.
Mt quy hoch h thng ngun n!c !c gi l hp l nu tho mn yu cu khai
thc ngun n!c !c nh gi bi h thng ch tiu nh gi vi cc tiu ch sau:
- S dng ngun n!c hiu qu nht v hp l nht.
- Hiu qu u t! cao, cc ph!ng n quy hoch ti !u nht.
- p ng yu cu bo v mi tr!ng v s pht trin bn vng ti nguyn
n!c.
Li dng tng hp l nguyn tc cao nht ca vic hoch nh cc ph!ng n
quy hoch khai thc ti nguyn n!c. Nh!ng cng v vy, c th tn ti nhng mu
thun gia nhng ngnh dng n!c, hoc l mu thun gia khai thc v bo v mi tr!ng.
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Ch!ng 2- Quy hoch v qun l ngun n!c 23
Tm kim ph!ng n ti !u trong quy hoch c th !c gii quyt nh p dng
cc ph!ng php ti !u ho. Hin nay, cc ph!ng php ti !u ho trong lnh vc quy
hoch ngun n!c !c p dng t!ng i ph bin trn th gii. Tuy vy, khng
phi bi ton quy hoch no cng c th p dng !c ph!ng php ti !u ho. Trong
tr!ng hp nh! vy th ph!ng php m phng s hiu qu hn trong vic tm nghim
ti !u. Thc ra, ph!ng php m phng khng tm nghim ti !u m tm nghim hp l.

2.2. Cc bi ton c bn v quy hoch v qun l ngun n!c

Quy hoch v qun l ngun n!c gm ba loi bi ton: Quy hoch h thng
(hay cn gi l thit k h thng), Pht trin ngun n!c v Qun l ngun n!c. D!i
y s trnh by khi nim v ba loi bi ton ny.
2.2.1. Quy hoch h thng (Thit k h thng)
Quy hoch h thng ngun n!c l s thit lp cu trc ca h thng ngun n!c
bao gm h thng cng trnh v h thng cc yu cu v n!c. Trong lnh vc ngun
n!c cng vic ny !c gi l Quy hoch h thng. Trong mt s ti liu cn c tn
gi l Thit k h thng, mt ngn t !c s dng trong thit k cc loi h thng k
thut khc. Mc tiu ca giai on thit k h thng l xc nh mt cu trc hp l
nht ca h thng ngun n!c, tho mn cc mc tiu khai thc v bo v ngun n!c.
Khi lp cc quy hoch h thng, t yu cu khai thc ngun n!c ng!i lm quy
hoch phi xc nh nhng loi cng trnh no s !c xem xt xy dng? quy m xy
dng ra sao? yu cu cp n!c no cn !c xem xt v kh nng p ng n u?
cu trc no ca h thng !c coi l kh thi v ti !u nht. Ngoi ra cn xem xt cc
ph!ng n phi cng trnh (trng rng, h thng chnh sch..) nhm bo v v ti to
ngun n!c.
Nhim v ca quy hoch h thng l xc nh cu trc hp l v cc gii php
cng trnh v ph!ng thc s dng n!c. Chng hn ta cn lp quy hoch i vi mt
h thng tiu ng, v mt bin php cng trnh cn thit xem xt cng trnh u mi
no s !c xy dng (cng tiu hoc cng trnh tiu ng lc), v tr xy dng v quy
m cc loi cng trnh , xc nh cu trc ca h thng cc trc knh tiu, s phn
vng cc khu tiu. V mt yu cu tiu cn xem xt mc tiu cho tng vng tiu
trong h thng nh! th no l hp l.
Ni tm li, quy hoch h thng l xc nh mt cu trc hp l v bin php
cng trnh v ph!ng thc khai thc s dng n!c. Bi vy, quy hoch h thng cn c
tn gi l thit k h thng. Cn phn bit hai ngn t thit k h thng v thit
k cng trnh: thit k h thng l xc nh cu trc ca h thng trong khi lp quy
hoch ngun n!c cn thit k cng trnh l cng tc thit k i vi mt cng trnh
c th no trong h thng.

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2.2.2. Pht trin ngun n!c
Pht trin ngun n!c l bi ton hoch nh chin l!c u t! pht trin bao
gm c vn u t! pht trin h thng cng trnh v vn s dng ngun n!c mt
cch hp l nhm m bo s pht trin bn vng trong t!ng lai. Lut ti nguyn
n!c ca Vit Nam xc nh chin l!c pht trin ngun n!c nh! sau: Pht trin
ti nguyn n!c l bin php nhm nng cao kh nng khai thc, s dng bn vng ti
nguyn n!c v nng cao gi tr ca Ti nguyn n!c (Lut Ti nguyn n!c - trang
5, mc 3, iu 7).
Lp quy hoch pht trin ngun n!c bao gm nhng ni dung nh! sau:
- D bo yu cu v n!c trong t!ng lai bao gm yu cu s dng n!c,
phng chng l v bo v mi tr!ng.
- nh gi cn bng n!c trong t!ng lai bao gm cn bng t nhin v cn
bng vi quy hoch h thng cng trnh xc nh trong t!ng lai.
- Xy dng quy hoch v s dng n!c v khai thc ngun n!c trong t!ng lai.
- D bo s thay i v mi tr!ng, s suy thoi ngun n!c do cc hot ng
dn sinh kinh t v tc ng do cc bin php khai thc ngun n!c gy
nn. Trn c s lp cc quy hoch cho cc bin php nhm ti to ngun
n!c, chng suy thoi v ngun n!c.
- Hoch nh cc bin php cn thit trong qun l ngun n!c, h thng
chnh sch v th ch nhm m bo s pht trin bn vng.
- Lp chin l!c ti !u trong u t! pht trin ngun n!c.

2.2.3. Qun l ngun n!c
Qun l ngun n!c: L s xc nh ph!ng thc qun l ngun n!c trn mt
vng, mt lnh th hoc mt h thng sng mt cch hiu qu v m bo yu cu v
s pht trin bn vng cho vng hoc l!u vc sng nhm kim sot cc hot ng khai
thc ngun n!c v nhng hot ng dn sinh kinh t c tc ng tch cc v tiu cc
n cn bng sinh thi v suy thoi ngun n!c trn mt vng lnh th hoc l!u vc
sng. Ph!ng thc qun l cc hot ng khai thc ngun n!c v cc hot ng dn
sinh kinh t trn mt l!u vc sng gi l Qun l l!u vc sng.
Qun l khai thc h thng cng trnh: L s thit lp cc ph!ng thc qun l
khai thc h thng cng trnh, xy dng ch!ng trnh iu hnh, iu khin h thng
sau khi h thng cng trnh !c xy dng, m bo tnh hiu qu ca vic s dng
n!c v m bo s pht trin bn vng v ngun n!c. Qun l h thng cng trnh
thu li bi vy ch l mt ni dung ca qun l ngun n!c.
qun l ngun n!c mt cch c hiu qu cn gii quyt cc vn chnh
nh! sau:
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- Hoch nh h thng cc chnh sch, th ch nhm qun l tt nht ti
nguyn n!c trn mt lnh th hoc trn mt l!u vc sng. H thng chnh
sch bao gm lut n!c v cc quy nh d!i lut do nh n!c ban hnh, h
thng cc chnh sch nhm khuyn khch cng ng tham gia vo qu trnh
bo v ngun n!c. Cc th ch !c xy dng tu thuc vo c im c
th ca vng c ngun n!c cn bo v. i vi cc sng ln chy qua lnh
th ca nhiu quc gia cn thit lp cc t chc lin quc gia phi hp
hnh ng.
- Thit lp h thng k thut tr gip cng tc qun l ngun n!c bao gm
h thng quan trc, h thng x l thng tin, cc m hnh ton v cc phn
mm qun l d liu, cc m hnh v phn mm qun l ngun n!c. y
!c coi l cng c quan trng kim sot nhng nh h!ng c li v c
hi n ngun n!c v sinh thi do cc hot ng dn sinh kinh t gy ra, t
c c s hoch nh cc ph!ng thc khai thc hp l ti nguyn n!c v
cc bin php cn thit bo v v nng cao cht l!ng ca ngun n!c.

2.3. Ch!ng trnh n!c quc gia cc dng quy hoch ngun n!c
2.3.1. Ch!ng trnh quc gia v pht trin ngun n!c
Ch!ng trnh quc gia v pht trin ngun n!c xc lp h thng chnh sch v
ch!ng trnh v n!c trn ton quc nhm khai thc hiu qu v hp l ti nguyn
n!c ca mt quc gia.
H thng chnh sch v cc ch!ng trnh quc gia v n!c bao gm cc quyn
cam kt v n!c, kim tra cht l!ng n!c, bo v phn phi n!c v tng hp thng
tin t cc quy hoch l!u vc sng. Ch!ng trnh quc gia v pht trin ngun n!c
cng nu cc iu kin hin ti, nhng hot ng cn lm v nhng bin php d kin
h!ng dn cc hot ng c nh h!ng n phm vi ton quc trong t!ng lai.
Quan trng hn, ch!ng trnh quc gia v pht trin ngun n!c phi m bo !c
nhng hot ng cp Chnh ph nhm thng nht cc k hoch v ch!ng trnh lin
quan n n!c ca tt c cc c quan Chnh ph, k c pht trin th, cng nghip,
t!i tiu, thu in, m v cc pht trin t! nhn.
C s ca vic lp ch!ng trnh quc gia v pht trin ngun n!c l cc mc
tiu quc gia c lin quan n s dng khai thc ngun n!c bao gm:
! Xo i gim ngho;
! Tng tr!ng kinh t;
! Pht trin khu vc;
! Duy tr mi tr!ng lnh mnh;
! An ninh quc gia...

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Vi cc mc tiu k hoch chung ca quc gia, cc mc tiu v ngun n!c cp
quc gia th!ng bao gm cc vn sau:
- Ti !u ho nhng li ch a mc tiu t ti nguyn n!c, t ai v cc ti
nguyn thin nhin khc
- Ti !u ho sn xut in nng trong khun kh nhng hn ch khc
- Phng chng l lt
- Cung cp n!c thch ng cho dn sinh v cng nghip
- Duy tr cht l!ng n!c theo cc tiu chun cht l!ng xc lp
- Duy tr mi tr!ng bn vng theo nhng h!ng dn t ra
- Pht trin giao thng thu v duy tr pht trin thy sn
- m bo kh nng bn vng ti chnh ca cc d n v ch!ng trnh.

2.3.2. Quy hoch l!u vc v ngun n!c
Quy hoch ngun n!c cp l!u vc vch ra chnh sch v ch!ng trnh v n!c
trn mt l!u vc sng nhm khai thc hiu qu v hp l ti nguyn n!c trn l!u vc.
Mc ch ca Quy hoch l!u vc l !a ra h!ng dn m bo s dng c
hiu qu ngun n!c trn l!u vc nhm p ng tt nht cc mc tiu v mc ch
quc gia v vng lnh th. Quy hoch l!u vc v th phi bao gm mt ti liu xc
nh, la chn v k hoch thc hin cc d n, quy ch v cam kt v n!c. Quy
hoch ny tng hp tt c cc d liu thch hp hin c lp thnh vn bn tt c cc d
n ang tn ti, cc quy nh v cam kt v n!c, !a ra cc ph!ng n qun l t
chc v vt cht cc ngun n!c ph hp vi cc mc tiu v mc ch ra. Cc
iu kin s dng n!c v cc ph!ng n !c lp theo thi hn hin ti, 10 nm,
25 nm v 50 nm. Do nhng d liu thu thp !c ngy cng tng cng vi s thay
i v mc tiu nn Quy hoch l!u vc phi !c thay i v cp nht th!ng k. Quy
hoch l!u vc s l vn bn chnh thc h!ng dn mi hot ng quy hoch ca Chnh
ph v khu vc t! nhn ca tt c cc ngnh c th s dng hay tc ng n cc
ngun n!c ca l!u vc.
Phm vi ca quy hoch l!u vc s cp n mi ngun n!c trong l!u vc v
s dng cc ngun n!c ny trong cng nh! ngoi phm vi l!u vc. Khi lp cc quy
hoch l!u vc cn xem xt trong mi quan h s lin i vi cc l!u vc khc.
Cc mc tiu v mc ch m pht trin ngun n!c l!u vc th!ng h!ng ti
bao gm:
a. Qun l cc ngun n!c theo cch nhm m bo ti a ho cc li ch kinh t
x hi v mi tr!ng trong sch !c nu trong cc mc tiu quc gia.
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b. Hon thnh hoc tin hnh cc d n v ch!ng trnh ph hp vi lut php v
quy nh Quc gia cng nh! cc lch trnh t ra nhm p ng cc nhu cu ph thuc
vo n!c.
H thng chnh sch nh h!ng n quy hoch n!c l!u vc sng c th bao
gm:
! Cc quy nh php lut v n!c, thit k cng trnh v qun l ngun n!c;
! Quy nh v th t !u tin i vi cc i t!ng dng n!c;
! Cc chnh sch m bo bn vng v mi tr!ng;
! Quy nh cc loi ph hay !u i c lin quan n cc dch v v n!c: cp
n!c, t!i, tiu, phng l..., mc p ng mi chi ph hot ng
qun l khai thc ngun n!c;
! Cc quy nh lin quan n la chn v vn hnh cc cng trnh ph hp
vi cc tho thun v cam kt php l ca l!u vc, Quc gia v quc t;
! Quy nh m bo s cng bng gia cc i t!ng s dng n!c...

Quy hoch l!u vc v Ch!ng trnh v n!c cp quc gia b sung cho nhau, c
s ph thuc hai chiu ln nhau. Nhng chi tit v ti nguyn n!c v tim nng
pht trin ca quy hoch l!u vc s cung cp cho Ch!ng trnh v n!c cp quc gia.
Trong khi , cc quyt nh iu chnh v chnh sch, kinh t v cng trnh xut pht
t Chin l!c quc gia v pht trin ngun n!c phi !c phn nh trong quy hoch
l!u vc.

2.3.3. Quy hoch chuyn ngnh hoc cc quy hoch cp tiu vng
Quy hoch ngun n!c cp tiu vng l cc quy hoch chi tit c th cho mt
vng thuc mt l!u vc sng hoc mt phn lnh th nm trong quy hoch lin l!u vc.
Quy hoch chuyn ngnh l quy hoch chi tit cho mt i t!ng khai thc
ngun n!c no : Quy hoch phng l, quy hoch khai thc thu nng, quy hoch
cp n!c cho nng nghip... Trong thc t mt quy hoch th!ng !c lp theo
nguyn tc li dng tng hp v !c gi l quy hoch a mc tiu.
Hai loi quy hoch ny th!ng !c tin hnh ring r v chnh n s l c s
cho vic lp quy hoch l!u vc v xy dng cc ch!ng trnh pht trin ngun n!c
cp quc gia. Mt khc, khi cc quy hoch l!u vc v ch!ng trnh pht trin ngun
n!c cp quc gia !c xc lp th nhng quy hoch vng v quy hoch chuyn ngnh
phi !c thc hin trong khun kh ca quy hoch l!u vc v quy hoch quc gia.
2.3.4. Hai giai on lp quy hoch
Quy hoch l!u vc v ch!ng trnh quc gia v pht trin ngun n!c !c xy
dng theo nhiu giai on khc nhau nhm hon chnh cc quy hoch !c lp. Tuy
nhin, quy hoch l!u vc v ch!ng trnh pht trin ngun n!c cp quc gia th!ng

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!c thc hin theo hai giai on: giai on th nht l quy hoch khung; giai on
th hai l quy hoch ton b. Vic thc hin theo hai giai on s gim !c thi gian
v kinh ph thc hin quy hoch chi tit khi m ph!ng n quy hoch tng th ch!a
!c lm r.
2.3.4.1. Giai on 1: Quy hoch khung v ngun n!c
a. Quy hoch khung l!u vc
Quy hoch khung v ngun n!c c th coi l b!c quy hoch s b v ngun
n!c trn l!u vc sng, bao gm cc ni dung chnh nh! sau:
! Ti liu v cc mc tiu c th vng l!u vc trong khun kh quc gia
! Tin hnh nh gi ngun n!c
! c tnh nhu cu n!c hin nay v trong t!ng lai
! Chun b cn bng n!c v nhng nhu cu n!c trong t!ng lai
! Tm tt s pht trin hin ti, s pht trin d kin trong t!ng lai, t vch
ra cc la chn cho quy hoch.
b. Ch!ng trnh khung pht trin ngun n!c cp quc gia
Ch!ng trnh khung pht trin ngun n!c cp quc gia bao gm cc ni dung
chnh nh! sau:
! Kim tra v nng cp v mc ch v chnh sch v ngun n!c quc gia
! Tm tt v tng hp quy hoch l!u vc thy nhu cu trong t!ng lai v
nhng khu vc c s thiu ht tim nng. T c ph!ng h!ng iu chnh
i vi cc quy hoch l!u vc
! Xc nh !u tin hng u pht trin trong t!ng lai v cc yu cu trong quy
hoch
! nh gi Lut hin hnh, quy nh, quy tc hot ng v thit lp th ch
! Xy dng ti liu v ch!ng trnh n!c cp quc gia v ra cc khuyn
ngh.

2.3.4.2. Giai on 2: Hon tt quy hoch v ngun n!c
y l giai on nghin cu chi tit cc quy hoch da trn nhng ti liu nghin
cu giai on 1. Cc ni dung chnh trong giai on ny !c lit k nh! sau.
a. i vi quy hoch l!u vc
! nh gi chn lc v ngun n!c phc v cho quy hoch chi tit
! Nng cp !c tnh nhu cu n!c (hin nay v trong t!ng lai) thc hin
giai on 1
! Tin hnh m phng h thng ngun n!c, tnh ton cn bng n!c v nhng
nhu cu n!c trong t!ng lai
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! Hnh thnh cc ph!ng n quy hoch, ch!ng trnh la chn pht trin, qun
l v bo v mi tr!ng cho ngun n!c v nhng la chn !c khuyn
ngh c li.

b. i vi ch!ng trnh pht trin ngun n!c cp quc gia
! Kim tra v nng cp phm vi, mc ch v chnh sch quy hoch ngun
n!c quc gia
! Tm tt v thng nht quy hoch l!u vc vo quy hoch quc gia, th hin
nhng nhu cu trong t!ng lai, xc nh quyn, tim nng lin l!u vc v
tim nng pht trin
! Chun b !u tin hng u cho pht trin v vch cc ph!ng n c th
! nh gi li Lut hin hnh, quy nh, quy tc hot ng quyn s dng
n!c v thit lp th ch
! Tp hp cc ti liu ni trn vo quy hoch ngun n!c quc gia v ra
khuyn ngh.

2.4. Ni dung v cc b!c c bn lp quy hoch ngun n!c
2.4.1. Kim k nh gi ti nguyn n!c
y l ni dung rt quan trng nhm nh gi !c tim nng, tnh cht ca
ngun n!c. Trn c s hoch nh chin l!c khai thc ngun n!c v h thng
chnh sch qun l ngun n!c, m bo s pht trin bn vng ca mt vng hoc l!u
vc sng. Cng tc kim k, nh gi ti nguyn n!c bao gm:
a) nh gi tr l!ng n!c mt, n!c ngm, trong tr l!ng n!c mt
!c nh gi theo cc c tr!ng dng chy sng ngi, c im ngun
n!c v cn bng n!c
b) nh gi kh nng khai thc n!c mt v n!c ngm
c) nh gi cht l!ng n!c
d) D bo s thay i ngun n!c mt v n!c ngm trong t!ng lai
e) Tnh ton cn bng n!c h thng v l!u vc.

2.4.2. Xc nh nhng yu cu v n!c
Nhng yu cu v n!c bao gm:
! Yu cu n!c cho nng nghip
! Yu cu n!c cho pht trin cng nghip
! Yu cu v cht l!ng n!c
! Yu cu phng l, tiu ng v gim nh thin tai do l lt gy ra
! Yu cu khai thc thy nng
! Yu cu n!c cho giao thng thy, gii tr, du lch

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! Nhng yu cu lin quan n ci to mi tr!ng
! Yu cu n!c sinh thi
! nh gi nh h!ng ca pht trin dn sinh kinh t n cht l!ng n!c.

2.4.3. Hoch nh chin l!c v ph!ng n khai thc ngun n!c
Quy hoch ngun n!c !c thit lp theo cc giai on khc nhau, mi mt giai
on tip theo cc nghin cu s chi tit hn giai on tr!c. Ni dung chnh ca mt
quy hoch theo cc giai on bao gm:
- Hoch nh chin l!c khai thc ti nguyn n!c, v nghin cu cc
ph!ng php khai thc kh thi v hp l. Trn c s hnh thnh cc mc tiu khai
thc h thng v thit lp h thng ch tiu nh gi h thng.
- Thit lp cc ph!ng n v bin php cng trnh c th, phn tch tnh kh
thi ca cc ph!ng n cng trnh, bao gm cc vn kinh t v k thut. Trong giai
on ny cn thit phi s dng cc m hnh m phng nh gi kh nng t !c
nhng ch tiu t ra. Trn c s kt qu nghin cu c th iu chnh cc mc tiu
ban u cng vi h thng ch tiu khai thc h thng. Hai qu trnh ny !c lp li
nhiu ln cho n khi xc nh !c mt chin l!c v mc tiu t!ng i hp l.
- La chn cc ph!ng n c th v bin php cng trnh v thit k h thng
theo cc ph!ng n quy hoch.
- Phn tch v xc nh chin l!c pht trin h thng, bao gm c chin l!c
pht trin h thng cng trnh v chin l!c s dng ngun n!c trong t!ng lai.
Trong giai on ny cn ch n kh nng huy ng vn trong sut thi k quy
hoch. Phn tch hiu ch kinh t ca qu trnh pht trin h thng la chn chin
l!c ti !u.
- Phn tch mt cch y cc mc tiu khc: vn x hi chnh tr, vn
ho v.v T , khng loi tr kh nng c th phi iu chnh li mc tiu ban u.

2.4.4. Xy dng h thng ch tiu nh gi quy hoch
Nh! trnh by trn, nhim v ca quy hoch ngun n!c l xc nh mt
cn bng hp l trong quy hoch, thit k, iu khin v qun l ngun n!c. Mt cn
bng !c gi l hp l theo quan im hin i, phi t !c cc tiu chun chnh
sau y:
1) Phi p ng ti a cc yu cu v n!c trong vng nghin cu;
2) m bo s cn bng pht trin bn vng ca vng hoc l!u vc sng;
3) Phi t !c tnh hiu qu cao ca cc bin php khai thc v tnh kh thi
ca cc d n quy hoch. N ph thuc vo cc iu kin k thut v kh nng huy
ng vn ca nh n!c, tc l ph thuc vo trnh pht trin kinh t ca quc gia;
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4) t !c tnh mm do ca d n, tc l s thch ng ca quy hoch i vi
nhng iu chnh v mc tiu khai thc v s dng n!c trong t!ng lai nu c;
5) C tin cy cao, tc l xc sut ca s sai khc gia nhng thay i trong
t!ng lai so vi quy hoch ban u l nh nht.

2.4.5. M hnh ho h thng ngun n!c
M hnh ton l cng c quan trng trong qu trnh phn tch h thng khi xy
dng cc ph!ng n quy hoch v qun l ngun n!c. Bi vy, vic thit lp cc m
hnh ton cho h thng ngun n!c l khng th thiu !c trong quy hoch v qun
l ngun n!c. Cc m hnh ton cn !c thit lp bao gm:
! Xy dng cc m hnh m phng h thng tu thuc vo cc mc tiu khai
thc v h thng cc ch tiu nh gi
! Xy dng cc m hnh cn bng n!c h thng, bao gm cc m hnh v
l!ng v cht, nhm tr gip cho cng tc qun l ngun n!c
! Cc m hnh ti !u ho !c thit lp !c s dng trong nh gi hiu qu
cc ph!ng n quy hoch.

Thit lp v la chn m hnh m phng l khu quyt nh cht l!ng ca bi
ton quy hoch. M hnh m phng bao gm s m phng cc qu trnh vt l ca h
thng v m hnh hot ng ca h thng. Cc m hnh m phng qu trnh vt l ca
h thng ngun n!c rt a dng, cc m phng cn !c thit lp c th bao gm:
! M hnh tnh ton dng chy sng ngi, bao gm m hnh tt nh v cc m
hnh ngu nhin
! M hnh tnh ton n!c ngm
! M hnh xc nh cc nhu cu v n!c, c bit l nh ton nhu cu n!c cho
nng nghip
! M hnh chuyn ti n!c trn h thng sng v knh
! M hnh tnh ton iu tit n!c trong h thng h cha
! M hnh tnh ton tiu
! M hnh tnh ton nhim mn v truyn cht
! Cc m hnh tnh ton chuyn ti ph sa v din bin lng dn v ca sng.
! Nhng m hnh trn l nhng m hnh thnh phn m t mt qu trnh ring
r. Khi phn tch h thng ngun n!c phi xy dng cc m hnh m phng,
l s lin kt cc m hnh trn theo mc tiu ca bi ton t ra i vi h
thng !c nghin cu.
2.4.6. Phn tch nh gi cc ph!ng n quy hoch
1) Phn tch hiu qu d n thng qua cc m hnh ti !u kt hp vi ph!ng
php m phng.

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2) nh gi hiu qu kinh t ca cc d n quy hoch.
Khi thit lp cc d n quy hoch h thng ngun n!c c th s dng cc ch
tiu nh gi hiu qu kinh t, cc tiu chun v bo v mi tr!ng, pht trin dn
sinh, cc yu cu v chnh tr x hi. Khi nh gi hiu qu kinh t ca cc ph!ng n
quy hoch, phi xut pht t hai quan im khc nhau: quan im ti chnh v quan
im kinh t. Cng vi n l s phn tch kinh t v phn tch ti chnh ca mt d n.
3) nh gi tc ng ca d n n mi tr!ng: Hiu qu kinh t ca d n l
ch tiu quan trng, nh!ng n c th khng !c thc thi nu tc ng xu n mi
tr!ng. nh gi tc ng n mi tr!ng ca mt d n quy hoch bao gm:
! S tc ng n mi tr!ng n!c, s thay i tiu kh hu nu c
! nh h!ng n cc hot ng dn sinh kinh t ca vng d n hoc c cc
vng ln cn khi d n !c thc hin
! nh h!ng n mi tr!ng sinh thi
! Tc ng v mt vn ho x hi, tp qun, nh h!ng v mt an ninh quc
gia, v c cc vn chnh tr.

2.4.7. Quyt nh
Quyt nh ph!ng n quy hoch gm nhng ni dung sau:
! Quyt nh quy hoch di hn v ngn hn.
! Quyt nh qu trnh hot ng ca cc d n - Chin l!c v trnh t u t!
pht trin.
! Xy dng h thng chnh sch qun l s dng ngun n!c m bo s pht
trin bn vng ca vng hoc l!u vc.
! Thit lp cc m hnh qun l ngun n!c.

2.5. Khung lut php v th ch trong qun l ti nguyn n!c

N!c l mt ti nguyn thit yu v quan trng ca quc gia nn vic qun l ti
nguyn n!c cn !c thc hin trn c s xy dng khung th ch v lut php ph
hp vi tnh hnh thc t ca tng quc gia.
2.5.1. Lut Ti nguyn n!c v nhng vn bn d!i lut
2.5.1.1. Lut Ti nguyn n!c
S pht trin thnh cng hay khng ca mt quc gia ph thuc vo nng lc
qun l cc ngun ti nguyn thin nhin ch cht ca quc gia , trong c ti
nguyn n!c l ti nguyn quan trng th hai sau ti nguyn con ng!i. Lut n!c
!c coi l mt vn bn php l nhm bo v ngun n!c v s dng hp l ngun
n!c. n!c ta trong nhng nm qua tng b!c xy dng v hon thin dn khung
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php l i vi qun l ti nguyn. Quc hi thng qua Lut Ti nguyn n!c ngy 20
thng 5 nm 1998 v !c Ch tch n!c k ban hnh ngy 1 thng 6 nm 1998.
Lut Ti nguyn n!c ca n!c ta !c xy dng da trn chnh sch v n!c
ca quc gia c xt n cc kinh nghim v bi hc v lut Ti nguyn n!c ca cc
n!c khc trn th gii. Ni dung ca Lut Ti nguyn n!c phn nh !c phn ln
nhng quan im v nguyn tc v qun l tng hp ti nguyn n!c m quc t
khuyn co phi thc hin.
2.5.1.2. Cc vn bn d!i lut
thc hin Lut Ti nguyn n!c, Chnh ph cn ban hnh cc vn bn nhm
c th ho nhng iu !c ghi trong lut. Nhng vn bn d!i lut bao gm cc Ngh
nh, cc Quy nh v hot ng qun l ngun n!c, cc Php lnh ca Nh n!c lin
quan n bo v ngun n!c. Vit Nam ban hnh mt s Php lnh bao gm: Php
lnh khai thc v bo v cng trnh thy li sa i; Php lnh iu; Php lnh
phng chng lt bo v.v...
2.5.2. Khung th ch qun l ti nguyn n!c
qun l n!c mt cch c hiu qu cn thit phi hnh thnh h thng th ch
qun l ti nguyn n!c. Mi quc gia c th xy dng khung th ch cho ph hp vi
tnh hnh ca tng n!c. Tuy nhin, khung th ch th!ng l nhng quy nh v mt t
chc trong qun l ngun n!c v vn x hi ho trong quy hoch v qun l ngun
n!c. Cc quy nh v mt t chc bao gm ph!ng thc qun l v t chc hnh
chnh tham gia vo qu trnh qun l n!c. Hin nay c hai ph!ng thc qun l n!c:
qun l n!c theo a phn hnh chnh v ph!ng thc qun l n!c theo l!u vc
sng. Qun l n!c theo l!u vc sng l mt ph!ng thc tin b v hiu qu nht. Bi
v l!u vc sng l mt h thng nht bao gm khng gian khp kn t ngun ti ca
sng, trn din ra tt c cc hot ng t to ngun n khai thc, s dng v bo
v ti nguyn n!c ca l!u vc. Khc vi qun l ti nguyn n!c theo a bn hnh
chnh, qun l ti nguyn n!c theo l!u vc sng l iu kin cn thit khai thc v
s dng bn vng ti nguyn n!c l!u vc sng. thc hin m hnh ny cn thnh
lp t chc qun l l!u vc sng, U ban sng M Kng l mt v d in hnh ca
loi t chc ny.
M hnh qun l ti nguyn n!c theo l!u vc sng l mt b!c tin mi, c
nhiu !u im hin ang !c p dng ngy cng ph bin trn th gii thc hin
mc tiu ca pht trin bn vng.
2.5.3. S tham gia ca cng ng
Trong qun l ngun n!c vai tr ca cng ng l rt quan trng v n !c
cp trong lut Ti nguyn n!c. Vai tr ca cng ng khng dng ch h !c
tham gia vo qu trnh khai thc v bo v ngun n!c m mong mun ca h l !c
tham gia quyt nh k hoch, thm ch tham gia u t! d!i cc dng thch hp. Cc

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h s dng n!c v nhng ng!i h!ng li ni chung cn !c o to c bn v k
thut, qun l ti chnh. Hin nay, cc t chc v n!c th!ng to iu kin cc hi
dng n!c !c tham gia cc lp tp hun trong thi gian ngn gip cc t chc
a ph!ng t khc phc !c im yu trong qun l ngun n!c ca mnh. Vit
Nam nng cao hiu qu khai thc s dng ti nguyn n!c, trong nhng nm gn
y s tham gia ca cng ng trong qun l ti nguyn n!c trn l!u vc sng
!c Nh n!c rt quan tm.

2.5.4. Vn gii trong quy hoch v qun l ngun n!c
Ph n l lc l!ng th!ng xuyn v trc tip c lin quan n vic s dng
n!c. i vi gia nh th!ng h l ng!i thit thi hn nam gii. Vn n!c sch
c lin quan n sc kho cng ng c bit l sc kho ca ph n. Ph n c t c
hi !c tip cn vi cc thng tin c lin quan n vic s dng n!c so vi nam gii,
c bit i vi cc n!c chm pht trin. Bi vy, vic cung cp cc thng tin i vi
ph n l rt cn thit thng qua cc lp tp hun v gii trong lnh vc qun l n!c.
Thng qua cc lp tp hun v gii, ph n s ng vai tr quan trng trong vic bo
v ngun n!c.

2.6. Yu cu pht trin bn vng ti nguyn n!c
2.6.1. Khi nim v pht trin bn vng
Pht trin bn vng l mt khi nim mi v s pht trin xut hin trong vi
thp k gn y khi m mu thun gia mi tr!ng v pht trin tr thnh su sc
nhiu n!c trn th gii.
Pht trin l quy lut ca lch s tt yu ca x hi loi ng!i. Th k 20 l th
k pht trin v bo ca khoa hc k thut v kinh t, cng l th k bng n dn s
trn ton cu. Tc pht trin kinh t v s bng n v dn s khin cho nhiu ti
nguyn thin nhin b s dng qu mc ang tin ti nguy c b cn kit, nhim mi
tr!ng gia tng, e do s pht trin lu bn ca nhn loi. T , vn ang !c
quan tm l pht trin nh! th no con ng!i ca th h hm nay cng nh! trong
t!ng lai c !c cuc sng hnh phc c v vt cht v tinh thn, chnh l Pht
trin bn vng. Ni mt cch khc, Pht trin bn vng l s pht trin nhm p ng
nhu cu ca th h hm nay m khng lm tn hi n kh nng p ng nhu cu ca
cc th h t!ng lai.
Khi nim v pht trin bn vng bt u !c cp n t nhng nm 70
ca th k 20 v !c Hi ng th gii v Mi tr!ng v Pht trin (WCED) trnh
by nh! l mt nh ngha trong cun T!ng lai ca chng ta: S pht trin nhm
p ng nhu cu ca th h ngy nay m khng lm tn hi n kh nng p ng nhu
cu ca cc th h t!ng lai. Pht trin bn vng bao gm cc mt chnh sau y:
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! Bn vng v mt mi tr!ng
! Bn vng v kinh t ti chnh
! Bn vng v x hi
! Bn vng v th ch chnh sch
! Bn vng v nng lc v tr tu
S pht trin bn vng v kinh t - x hi !c nh gi bng 4 ch tiu chnh
nh! sau:
1) V kinh t, trong x hi bn vng, vic u t! pht trin phi em li li
nhun v tng tng sn phm quc gia.
2) V ti nguyn thin nhin, l loi ti nguyn khng th hoc kh ti to
!c, v vy cn phi s dng trong phm vi khi phc !c v s l!ng v
cht l!ng hoc s dng mt cch tit kim v b sung th!ng xuyn bng
con !ng t nhin hoc nhn to.
3) V cht l!ng mi tr!ng: Mi tr!ng khng kh, n!c, t v cnh quan
lin quan n sc kho, tin nghi, yu cu thm m, tm l ca con ng!i
nhn chung khng b cc hot ng ca con ng!i lm nhim; Cc ngun
ph thi phi !c x l, ti ch kp thi.
4) V vn ho - x hi, x hi bn vng phi l x hi trong pht trin kinh
t phi i i vi cng bng x hi, gio dc, o to, y t; phc li x hi
phi !c chm lo, cc gi tr vn ho v o c ca dn tc v cng ng
phi !c bo v v pht huy.

Mt trong 4 iu kin trn b vi phm th s pht trin ca x hi s c nguy c
mt bn vng.
Thng 6 nm 1992 Hi ngh th!ng nh v Mi tr!ng v Pht trin ln u
tin !c t chc ti Rio de Janeiro (Brazil). Hi ngh nht tr ly pht trin bn
vng lm mc tiu ca ton nhn loi tin vo th k 21. Hi ngh c tho thun
v bn vn kin quan trng: Tuyn ngn cc nguyn tc, Tuyn b Rio de Janeiro v
Ch!ng trnh hnh ng, Lch trnh Th k 21, Cng !c khung v bin i kh hu v
a dng sinh hc.
2.6.2. Pht trin bn vng ti nguyn n!c
Mt trong nhng iu kin m bo s pht trin bn vng l s s dng hp l
v tit kim ngun ti nguyn thin nhin. N!c cng l mt loi ti nguyn qu gi
ang c nguy c b cn kit v suy thoi do s khai thc khng hp l v tc ng xu
ca cc hot ng kinh t ca con ng!i. Bi vy, pht trin bn vng ti nguyn n!c
l vn !c t ra mt cch cp bch i vi tt c cc quc gia trn th gii.

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Pht trin bn vng ngun n!c l s pht trin nhm p ng nhu cu v n!c
ca th h ngy nay m khng lm tn hi n kh nng p ng nhu cu n!c ca cc
th h t!ng lai.
Pht trin bn vng ti nguyn n!c !c coi l mt nguyn tc trong khai thc
s dng cng nh! qun l ngun n!c. m bo pht trin bn vng ti nguyn n!c,
khi lp cc quy hoch pht trin ngun n!c phi tun th nhng nguyn tc sau y:
1) Ngun n!c phi !c khai thc s dng mt cch hp l, va phi m bo
ti a cc yu cu v n!c ng thi khng !c v!t qu mt gii hn no
!c gi l ng!ng khai thc ngun n!c c kh nng hi phc hay
ti to theo chu trnh thu vn vn c trong t nhin.
2) Ngun n!c phi !c bo v, m bo khng b cn kit v cht l!ng n!c
khng b suy thoi. Cn c bin php kim sot v hn ch nhim n!c,
khng th cho tnh trng nhim n!c tr thnh trm trng lm gim
l!ng n!c sch ca con ng!i.
3) Cn c nhng bin php cng trnh hoc phi cng trnh phc hi v ti to
ngun n!c. Cc bin php bo v rng v ti to rng l mt trong nhng
bin php tch cc bo v ngun n!c.
4) Mi quc gia cn thit lp khung th ch qun l ngun n!c mt cch hiu
qu nht. Cc ch!ng trnh v n!c cp quc gia cn !c thc hin mi
quc gia.
5) Qun l ngun n!c phi m bo tnh cng ng v tnh cng bng. Phi c
s tham gia ca cng ng v cc thnh phn c lin quan n s dng n!c.

2.7. Ph!ng php tip cn h thng trong quy hoch v qun l
ngun n!c

Vn quy hoch v qun l ngun n!c l mt vn phc tp. Khi m mc
khai thc ca con ng!i i vi h thng ngun n!c cn mc thp, th vic ra
quyt nh trong cc ph!ng n quy hoch, iu hnh h thng c th ch cn n
nhng ph!ng php truyn thng. Ng!i ra quyt nh ch cn da trn mt s hu hn
nhng nghin cu c th hoc thc hin mt s ph!ng n tnh ton khng phc tp
ra quyt nh. Nh!ng n khi s khai thc v can thip ca con ng!i vo h thng
ngun n!c tng ln, th cc bi ton h thng tr nn rt phc tp. Ng!i lm quyt
nh phi gii quyt mt bi ton c dung l!ng ln cc thng tin. Trong h thng tn
ti nhiu mi quan h cn phi gii quyt, nhiu mc tiu khai thc cn phi cp
n. Trong tr!ng hp nh! vy, nhng ph!ng php truyn thng t ra khng cn c
hiu qu na. iu i hi phi c nhng ph!ng php phn tch hin i, vi s x
l thng tin nhanh gip ng!i lm quyt nh c nhiu c hi la chn cc quyt nh
hp l. M hnh ton hc cng vi s pht trin ca cng c tnh ton nhanh gip
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ch cho lm thay i v cht trong cc nghin cu v h thng ngun n!c. l
ph!ng php phn tch h thng.
Trong nhng nm gn y, l thuyt phn tch h thng !c p dng trong
cc bi ton quy hoch, thit k v iu khin h thng ngun n!c. Mc d s p
dng l thuyt phn tch h thng i vi cc h thng ngun n!c mi ch bt u
vo nhng nm 70, nh!ng to ra s thay i v cht trong nghin cu, qui hoch,
qun l h thng thu li v tin mt b!c kh xa so vi nhng ph!ng php truyn
thng !c p dng tr!c y. Hin nay, l thuyt phn tch h thng !c ng
dng rng ri trong qui hoch ngun n!c nhiu quc gia. Tuy nhin, n!c ta cng
vic ny mi ch bt u trong nhng nm gn y.
Hin nay, cc ti liu khoa hc trn th gii lin quan n lnh vc quy hoch v
khai thc ngun n!c th!ng !c trnh by theo quan im h thng vi s ng dng
l thuyt phn tch h thng. Bi vy, tip cn l thuyt phn tch h thng khng ch
cn l vn nhn thc m l mt yu cu cp thit i vi ng!i lm cng tc qui
hoch v iu khin h thng ngun n!c.
Cc ph!ng php tip cn vi bi ton quy hoch v qun l ngun n!c vi s
ng dng l thuyt phn tch h thng rt a dng, trong m hnh m phng !c
coi l cng c chnh trong qu trnh phn tch v tip cn h thng. y l b!c i u
tin trong phn tch v thit k h thng ngun n!c. Cc m hnh ti !u ho !c ng
dng rng ri v !c coi l mt cng c phn tch h thng. Nguyn l tip cn tng
b!c !c coi l mt nguyn tc trong qu trnh phn tch h thng i vi cc h
thng bt nh, trong c h thng ngun n!c.
Khi phn tch h thng ngun n!c cn lm r nhng vn chnh sau y:
- Hiu qu kinh t ca ph!ng n quy hoch
- Hiu qu pht trin kinh t x hi ca quy hoch
- Tc ng n mi tr!ng
- S m bo v nhu cu sinh thi
- S m bo v pht trin bn vng

2.8. Vai tr ca m hnh ho, nhng !u im v hn ch ca n

M hnh ho h thng ng vai tr quyt nh khi lp cc quy hoch ngun
n!c. M hnh ho h thng bao gm m hnh m phng v m hnh ti !u. M hnh
m phng m t cc qu trnh vt l v hot ng ca h thng, m hnh ti !u thit
lp nhm tm ra ph!ng n tt nht trong s cc ph!ng n quy hoch.

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2.8.1. M hnh m phng h thng
M phng h thng l ph!ng thc m t mt h thng thc bng mt h thng
khng thc do ng!i nghin cu to ra. Trn h thng nhn to, cc qu trnh vt l
ca m hnh thc !c m t gn ng hoc t!ng t. Cc quy lut vn ng ca h
thng thc !c suy ra t nhng kt qu nghin cu trn h thng do ng!i nghin
cu to ra.
i vi mt h thng bt k, vic xc nh mc tiu ban u ch l nh tnh,
mc t !c ca mc tiu t ra cn !c kim tra bng tnh ton vi cc m hnh
m phng xc lp. Cng vi mc tiu khai thc h thng cn xc nh bin php
cng trnh v quy m cc cng trnh cn !c xy dng. Ngoi ra, cng cn phi
khng nh kh nng p ng ca h thng i vi cc yu cu khai thc h thng. Tt
c nhng vn ny ch !c lm r khi s dng m hnh m phng trong qu trnh
tnh ton v phn tch. Kt qu tnh ton bng m hnh m phng cho php s b quyt
nh nhng vn chnh sau y:
1. Quyt nh mc tiu khai thc h thng bao gm nhng yu cu v n!c
!c chp nhn v mc p ng i vi mc tiu khai thc t ra. L!ng
ho mc tiu khai thc bng cc hm mc tiu v cc rng buc v mc tiu.
2. Ph!ng thc khai thc ngun n!c trn h thng.
3. Cu trc h thng bao gm cu trc h thng cng trnh, h thng cc yu
cu v n!c v mi quan h ca chng trn h thng.
4. Tp cc ph!ng n c th: cc ph!ng n cng trnh v cc ph!ng n khai
thc s dng ngun n!c.
5. Cc gii hn v rng buc ca h thng: !c m t bng cc biu thc rng
buc ton hc.

2.8.2. M hnh ti !u
Khi phn tch h thng trong iu khin, iu khin hoc pht trin h thng, cn
phi xc nh mc tiu ca n. Mc tiu khai thc h thng !c m t v l!ng ho
bng mt s cc ch tiu no , gi l h thng ch tiu nh gi. H thng ch tiu
nh gi l cc ch tiu m h thng cn t !c bao gm hiu qu khai thc do h
thng mang li v cc rng buc k thut, kinh t v mi tr!ng m n phi tho mn.
H thng ch tiu nh gi bi vy !c l!ng ho theo nhng dng rt khc nhau, c
th khi qut mt s dng c bn nh! sau:
+ H thng ch tiu nh gi l mt hoc mt s hu hn cc hm s m n cn
!c lm cc tr, c dng:
Fj(X) " max (min)
vi j =1, m; m l s hm mc tiu (2-1)
Cc hm Fj(X) trong tr!ng hp ny !c gi l hm mc tiu.
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Trong X l mt vec t cc bin s no ca h thng:
X = (x
1
, x
2
, ..., x
n
)
+ H thng ch tiu nh gi !c m t bng mt hoc mt s hu hn cc ng
thc hoc bt ng thc. Cc biu thc !c vit i vi hm ra ca h thng Y(t).
Dng tng qut ca loi h thng ch tiu ny !c vit nh! sau:
F
j
(Y(t)) # bj vi j = 1, m (2-2)
Trong F l hm biu din qua hm ra ca h thng Y(t).
Biu thc (2-2) !c vit mt cch tng qut, t!ng ng vi du "#" c th !c
thay bng du " = " hoc bng du "$".

Trong m l s ch tiu trong h thng ch tiu nh gi. Cc hm Fj(Y(t))
trong tr!ng hp ny !c coi l cc biu thc rng buc v mc tiu.
+ H thng ch tiu nh gi c dng hn hp, tc l mt s ch tiu nh gi
!c m t bng cc hm mc tiu dng (2-1), s cn li !c m t nh! mt rng
buc ca h thng v mc tiu, c dng (2-2).
H thng ch tiu nh gi c dng cc hm (2-1) v (2-2), l tiu chun nh
gi cht l!ng ca h thng vi cc mc tiu t ra, bi vy !c gi l cc hm
cht l!ng, !c trnh by trong nhiu ti liu.

Cc thng s
ca h thng
M hnh dng chy
(M hnh thu vn,
thu lc h thng)
M hnh
m phng
M hnh
ti !u
PHN TCH VA
QUYT |NH

KHI M HNH M PHNG
KHI TI !U HO

Hnh 2-1: S kt hp ph!ng php m phng v ph!ng php ti !u ha
(B. G. Priazinskaia: M hnh ton trong lnh vc ngun n!c, Nayka - Mascova, 1985)
M hnh ti !u l cng c phn tch hiu qu kinh t ca ph!ng n quy hoch,
cng c th l nhng hiu qu khng tnh bng tin.
Vic s dng m hnh ti !u c !u im l tm !c nghim tt nht ca ph!ng
n quy hoch. Tuy nhin, trong thc t c nhng hn ch nht nh, l:

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- Khng phi bi ton no quy hoch cng c th m t bng mt m hnh ti !u
- Trong nhiu tr!ng hp bi ton ti !u khng th gii !c do nhng hn ch
ca ph!ng php ton hc
- C th nghim ca bi ton ti !u tm !c ch l nghim ti !u cc b v do
c th b st cc ph!ng n tt hn.
Trong tr!ng hp ph!ng php ti !u ho c nhng hn ch nht nh ng!i ta
s dng ph!ng php m phng. Ph!ng php m phng l ph!ng php s dng m
hnh m phng phn tch hiu qu ca tng ph!ng n quy hoch, t tm ra
ph!ng n c li nht. Nh! vy, ph!ng n m phng ch tm ph!ng n gn ti !u.
tm ph!ng n tt nht bng ph!ng php m phng cn thit lp cc kch bn v
ph!ng n quy hoch v do c th cng b st cc ph!ng n tt hn do khng to
ra mt khng gian cc ph!ng n mt cch y .
Trong thc t ng!i ta th!ng kt hp hai ph!ng php ny (ph!ng php ti !u
ho v ph!ng php m phng) hn ch !u nh!c im ca tng ph!ng php (xem
s trn hnh 2-1).

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Ch!ng 3- Phn tch kinh t... 41

Ch!ng 3

PHN TCH KINH T TRONG QUY HOACH
PHT TRIN NGUN N!C

3.1. Nhim v v ni dung phn tch kinh t trong pht trin
ngun n!c

Phn tch kinh t d n nhm mc ch trnh !c s u t! khng hiu qu v
lng ph vo cc d n !c xy dng. y l iu c bit quan trng trong nhng
tr!ng hp m tin vn ti tr cho d n c bn mi ang b thiu hoc phi vay
vn ca n!c ngoi. Phn tch kinh t l mt trong nhng ch tiu quan trng trong qu
trnh lp v quyt nh thc thi d n. Phn tch kinh t trong quy hoch ngun n!c
!c cp n trong nhiu ti liu v quy hoch ngun n!c (Biswas, A.K, Jellali,
M., and Stout G.E., (eds.) (1993): Water for Sustainable Development in the TWenty-
fist Century,oxford University Press (ISBN 0 19 563303 4)).
Goodman,A.S. Principles of Water Resources Planing. Prentise-Hall, Inc, 1984,
ISBN 0 137 10616 5.
Nhim v ca phn tch kinh t l nh gi hiu qu ca vic s dng khai thc
ngun n!c v hiu qu ca vic u t! pht trin ngun n!c. Trn c s c quyt
sch hp l cho chin l!c pht trin ngun n!c.
Ni dung c bn ca phn tch kinh t trong pht trin ngun n!c bao gm:
- Phn tch xc nh gi tr ca n!c i vi cc ngnh s dng tng hp ngun n!c
- Phn tch chi ph v li ch i vi cc quy hoch pht trin ngun n!c
- nh gi hiu qu kinh t ca cc d n u t! pht trin ngun n!c
- Hch ton kinh t trong qu trnh qun l khai thc tng hp ngun n!c,
trn c s nh gi n!c mt cch hp l
- Hoch nh cc chnh sch kinh t trong qun l ngun n!c

3.2. Mt s khi nim c bn
3.2.1. Khi nim v phn tch ti chnh v phn tch kinh t
a. Phn tch ti chnh
S phn tch hiu qu u t! ca d n theo quan im ti chnh, gi l phn tch
v mt ti chnh. S phn tch v mt ti chnh s xem xt, nh gi chi ph v li ch
m mt n v hoc mt ng!i nhn !c v thanh ton trong quan h th tr!ng.

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Phn tch ti chnh n gin ch l s phn tch li ch gia ng!i u t! v ng!i
s dng trong mi quan h v mt ti chnh. Ng!i u t! (c th l mt cng ty hoc
chnh ph) s ch quan tm n li ch mang li cho h khi u t! vo d n: ai l
ng!i tr tin cho h v li ch h thu !c l bao nhiu.
V d mt cng ty (hoc nh n!c) u t! xy dng mt nh my thu in. Nh
u t! cn phi nh gi !c li ch m h nhn !c khi u t! vo d n. Li ch
mang li cho nh u t! l s tin thu !c t bn in trong thi gian khai thc cng
trnh sau khi tr i cc khon chi ph (xy dng cng trnh, qun l, thu n!c, cc
li thu khc, n b...). Nh u t! cn phn tch lm r hai kha cnh sau:
- Li ch mang li cho cng ty v kh nng thu hi vn khi u t! vo d n ny.
- Kh nng chi tr vn vay nu cng ty phi vay vn theo hn nh ca ngn
hng hoc vay vn n!c ngoi vi mc li sut n nh tr!c.
Thng qua phn tch ti chnh, nu s u t! mang li li ch khng ln hoc nh
u t! khng c kh nng chi tr vn vay theo hn nh th d n c th khng !c
u t! xy dng.
b. Phn tch kinh t
S phn tch hiu qu u t! ca d n theo quan im kinh t gi l phn tch v
mt kinh t. Phn tch v mt kinh t s xem xt mt d n quy hoch mt gc
rng ln hn. N gip !c on nhng li ch v chi ph i vi ton b nn kinh t
quc dn.
Cng ly v d mt cng ty (hoc nh n!c) u t! xy dng mt nh my thy
in. Theo quan im kinh t, Nh n!c cn phi nh gi !c li ch mang li cho
nn kinh t quc dn khi u t! vo d n. Li ch mang li khng phi ch l tin thu
!c t bn in m cn bao gm cc li ch kinh t khc: to iu kin pht trin cc
lnh vc kinh t khc, to cng vic lm, v.v... Nh! vy, li ch kinh t mang li !c
xem xt trong s pht trin chung ca nn kinh t quc dn. Nh u t! ch !c
h!ng li ch do bn in m c, li ch ny c th l khng ln nh!ng li ch mang li
cho nn kinh t quc dn c th l rt ln.
xem xt tnh kh thi ca mt d n, ngoi phn tch v mt k thut cn
thng qua phn tch ti chnh, phn tch kinh t quyt nh xem d n c cn !c
u t! hay khng. Tt nhin khi phn tch d n cn xem xt nh h!ng ca n n
cc vn x hi, mi tr!ng, chnh tr, qun s v.v...
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3.2.2. Khi nim v chi ph v li ch
a. Theo quan im ti chnh
Theo quan im ti chnh, bt c nhng g lm gim li nhun rng ca mt
cng ty hoc mt c nhn no !c gi l chi ph, nhng g lm tng thu nhp rng
ca cng ty hoc mt c nhn gi l li ch.
b. Theo quan im kinh t
Theo quan im kinh t, bt c nhng g lm gim thu nhp quc dn gi l chi
ph, nhng g lm tng thu nhp nn kinh t quc dn gi l li ch.
Chng hn, vic s dng xi mng !c s dng cho vic lt knh dn n!c ca
cng trnh thu li l gim kh nng sn xut ca nhng lnh vc dch v khc, cui
cng lm gim thu nhp quc dn. Bi vy, vic s dng xi mng trong d n trn l
chi ph i vi nn kinh t quc dn.
Nh!ng vic s dng xi mng cho vic lt knh cng lm tng sn xut la go
dn ti kt qu lm tng khi l!ng hng ho v dch v x hi, thu nhp kinh t quc
dn tng ln. Vy vic s dng xi mng lt knh s mang li li ch.
Nhim v ca vic phn tch kinh t l phi nh gi !c xem liu nhng li ch
ca d n c ln hn chi ph b ra hay khng.
c. V d
Gi s c d n xy dng mt h cha cp n!c t!i cho nng nghip.
Theo quan im ti chnh cc chi ph bao gm:
! Vn u t! xy dng cng trnh
! Cc chi ph vn hnh sa cha
! Tin gii phng mt bng v n b
! Cc loi thu.
Li ch mang li l tin thu !c t vic bn n!c, tin thu !c t vic khai thc
du lch, nui trng thy sn ti lng h.
Theo quan im kinh t cc chi ph c th bao gm:
! Vn u t! xy dng cng trnh
! Cc chi ph vn hnh sa cha
! Tin gii phng mt bng v n b
! Thit hi kinh t do mt kh nng sn xut phn din tch t dnh cho
lm cng trnh v phn din tch dnh cho gii phng mt bng.
Li ch mang li bao gm:

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! Sn l!ng la go tng ln do c cng trnh cp n!c t!i v lm tng thu
nhp quc dn
! Lm tng thu nhp quc dn t vic xut khu la go
! Li ch t khai thc lng h do nui trng thu sn v du lch
! Lm tng sn phm cho x hi do s thay i tp qun canh tc v thay
i ngnh ngh sn xut ca khu vc di dn
! Li ch mang li do gim sc lao ng cho ng!i trng la vng !c
cp n!c. Ng!i nng dn s c c hi lm nhng ngh ph khc lm
tng sn phm x hi
! Lm tng sc sn xut ca cc lnh vc c lin quan: sn xut xi mng,
st thp, cng nghip ch bin...
! Ngoi ra cn c nhng li ch khng tnh !c bng tin. l cc vn
v ci thin iu kin mi tr!ng, li ch x hi khc mang li.
Ni chung, vic phn tch chi ph v li ch theo quan im kinh t l rt phc
tp v kh khn hn nhiu so vi vic phn tch ti chnh.

3.2.3. Gi tr v gi c
Gi tr ca mt l!ng hng ho no chnh l l!ng sn phm tng thm khi s
dng l!ng hng ho .
V d gi tr ca mt bao phn bn chnh l l!ng thc go tng thm sau khi s
dng thm mt bao phn bn. Gi tr tnh bng tin ca mt bao phn bn chnh l s
tin thu !c t l!ng thc go tng thm khi bn chng vi mt gi no .
Nu gi ca bao phn bn bn cao hn gi tr ca n th s c t ng!i s dng
loi phn bn . Nu gi ca bao phn bn thp hn gi tr ca n s c nhiu ng!i
mua hn.
Trong qu trnh sn xut nu vn u t! sn xut mt bao phn bn cao hn gi
tr ca n th vic u t! sn xut loi phn bn s khng c li. Mt cch t!ng t,
nu vn u t! cho mt d n thu li cao hn gi tr ca n (l s tng thm ca sn
phm x hi khi c d n ) th vic u t! s khng c li v mt kinh t.
Vn cn quan tm l vic nh gi cho sn phm to ra ca mt d n nh! th
no. Chng hn i vi d n thu li cn thit phi nh !c gi n!c sau khi d n
hon thnh. Nu gi n!c qu cao v ln hn gi tr ca n th ng!i nng dn s
khng s dng n!c t d n. Ng!c li nu gi n!c thp s c nhiu ng!i s dng
n!c nh!ng c th vic u t! s b l do sut u t! cao. Bi vy, vic nh gi n!c
theo quan im kinh t l mt vn phc tp v phi !c xem xt t cc kha cnh:
- ca ng!i u t! vo d n thu li
- ca ng!i nng dn
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- ca chin l!c pht trin kinh t ca nh n!c.
Mt gi n!c !c gi l ti !u nu n lm tng thu nhp quc dn nh!ng c th
li khng li i vi ng!i u t! vo d n thy li. Khi nh n!c s c bin php
tr gi cho ng!i nng dn hoc b l cho ng!i u t! vo d n.
Trong phn tch kinh t d n th!ng s dng hai loi gi: Gi th tr!ng v gi
kinh t.
Gi th tr!ng l mt s !c tnh t!ng i tu thuc vo quy lut gi c ca th
tr!ng. i vi mt loi hng ho no nu c nhiu ng!i sn sng mua th c th
c gi cao, ng!c li s c gi thp.
S phn tch v mt ti chnh th!ng s dng gi th tr!ng. S phn tch v mt
kinh t th!ng phi s dng gi kinh t !c chn sao cho c li cho s pht trin
chung ca nn kinh t v mang li nhng li ch v mt x hi v mi tr!ng.

3.2.4. Gi tr thi gian ca ng tin
Nu chng ta cho mt ng!i khc vay tin s dng, chng ta c quyn hy vng
s nhn !c khon tin li trong t!ng lai. L do l, nu mt ng!i no cho ng!i
khc vay tin th ng!i b qua c hi s dng khon tin vo mc ch ring
ca mnh. Bi vy, ng!i cho vay tin c quyn !c nhn bi th!ng cho s hy sinh
. chnh l tin li.
Khon tin li phi !c tr, cho d nn kinh t c chu lm pht hay khng.
Nu c lm pht th li sut s !c tnh thm sao cho ng!i cho vay sau khi nhn li
s tin ca mnh vn phi c sc mua bng vi sc mua ti thi im cho vay.
Ti thi im cui nm 2000, nu chng ta cho mt ng!i no vay mt s
tin 1.000.000 ng vi li sut 10%/nm th sau 5 nm (vo cui nm 2005), ng!i
vay phi tr cho chng ta mt khon tin l 1.610.510 ng. S tin phi tr sau 5 nm
!c tnh theo php tnh li lu tin, gi l php tnh a hp (xem bng 3-1). Gi li
sut l r (trong v d ny r=10% = 0.1), S
0
l s tin ban u, s tin d! n cui mi
nm s l:
- Cui nm th nht: S
1
= S
0
(1+r)
- Cui nm th hai: S
2
= S
0
(1+r)(1+r)= S
0
(1+r)
2
- Cui nm th ba: S
3
= S
0
(1+r)
2
(1+r)= S
0
(1+r)
3
- Cui nm th t!: S
4
= S
0
(1+r)
3
(1+r)= S
0
(1+r)
4
- Cui nm th nm: S
5
= S
0
(1+r)
4
(1+r)= S
0
(1+r)
5
Nh! vy, n cui nm th nm ng!i vay phi tr mt s tin l:S
5
= S
0
(1+r)
5
Mt cch tng qut, nu ng!i vay s tin ban u l S
0
th sau n nm ng!i
phi tr mt s tin tng cng l S
5
= S
0
(1+r)
n
.

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S tin m ng!i cho vay nhn !c sau 5 nm l 1.610.510 ng thc cht ch
bng 1.000.000 ng ti thi im hin ti cui nm 2000. Vic tnh ton chuyn gi
tr ng tin ti thi im bt k v thi im ban u !c gi l php tnh khu hao
(xem tnh ton bng 3-2).
Gi s S
5
l s tin nhn !c cui nm th 5, khi gi tr ng tin u
mi nm t!ng ng l:
- u nm th nm (cui nm th 4): S
4
= S
5
/(1+r)
- u nm th t! (cui nm th 3): S
3
= S
5
/(1+r)
2
- u nm th ba (cui nm th 2): S
2
= S
5
/(1+r)
3
- u nm th hai (cui nm th 1): S
1
= S
5
/(1+r)
4
- u nm th nht (thi im ban u): S
0
= S
5
/(1+r)
5

Bng 3-1: Php tnh a hp
Th t
nm
Nm S l!ng u nm (ng) H s =1+li sut S l!ng cui nm (ng)
to 1.000.000
t1 2001 1.000.000 1.1 1.100.000
t2 2002 1.100.000 1.1 1.210.000
t3 2003 1.210.000 1.1 1.331.000
t4 2004 1.331.000 1.1 1.464.100
t5 2005 1.464.100 1.1 1.610.510

Nh! vy, s tin ng!i cho vay nhn !c cui nm th 5 (sau 5 nm) l S
5

thc cht ch l S
0
khi tnh quy i v thi im ban u, v tt nhin ng!i vay ch
!c nhn s tin l S
0
v sau 5 nm phi tr s tin l S
5
.
Trong tr!ng hp tng qut, nu s nm cho vay theo hn nh l n nm th s
tin ng!i cho vay nhn !c l S
n
v t!ng !ng vi gi tr S
0
ti thi im ban u
xc nh theo cng thc:

n
0 n
S
S
(1 r )
"
#
(3-1)
Nh! vy, gi tr ca ng tin khng phi l gi tr bt bin theo thi gian. Khi u
t! vo cc d n, cc li ch mang li th!ng ch thu !c sau mt thi gian nht nh
k t khi d n bt u !c thc thi. Bi vy, so snh li ch ca d n so vi vn
u t!, chng ta cn thc hin php tnh quy i gi tr ng tin v thi im hin ti.
Php tnh quy i gi tr ng tin thi im bt k v thi im hin ti gi l
php tnh khu hao.
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Bng 3-2: Php tnh khu hao
Th t
nm
Nm
S l!ng cui nm
(ng)
H s
S l!ng u nm
(ng)
t5 2005 1.610.510 1.1 1.464.100
t4 2004 1.464.100 1.1 1.331.000
t3 2003 1.331.000 1.1 1.210.000
t2 2002 1.210.000 1.1 1.100.000
t1 2001 1.100.000 1.1 1.000.000

3.2.5. T l khu hao
Gi tr r trong cc php tnh a hp v php tnh khu hao l s thp phn. Trong
quan h ti chnh, trong giao dch vay vn hoc gi tin vo ngn hng, r !c gi l
t l li sut.
Trong lnh v u t! pht trin th!ng phi thc hin cc php tnh khu hao nn
r gi l t l khu hao hay cn gi l t sut khu hao. Trong ti liu ny chng ti s
dng ngn t t l khu hao.
Trong u t! pht trin ng!i ta s dng t l khu hao !a gi tr ca nhng
chi ph v li ch trong t!ng lai v gi tr ti thi im hin ti phn tch cc
ph!ng n u t!.
T l khu hao phn nh mc thu hi vn ti thiu c th chp nhn !c i vi
mt d n.
i vi phn tch ti chnh t l khu hao th!ng lin quan n hot ng ti
chnh ca cng ty hoc nh n!c, c lin quan n quan h vn vay ti ngn hng hoc
vn vay ca n!c ngoi. T l khu hao khng th nh hn t l li sut vay t
ngn hng.
i vi phn tch kinh t t l khu hao phi phn nh !c t l m tin t l!u
ng sn c ca nn kinh t quc dn phi !c huy ng ti a. T l khu hao theo
quan im kinh t do Nh n!c quy nh tu thuc vo trnh pht trin v chin
l!c u t! pht trin ca nn kinh t quc dn. Vit Nam t l khu hao hin nay
th!ng !c chn 10%/nm.
Trong nhiu tr!ng hp ng!i ta gi s dng t l khu hao !u i thi gian
x hi, gi tt l t l !u i. C s ca lp lun ny l ch ng!i ta cho rng x hi
c chiu di thi gian di hn nhiu so vi tng c nhn con ng!i hoc cng ty. Ni
mt cch khc vic u t! pht trin khng phi cho th h hm nay m cn v s pht
trin x hi trong t!ng lai ca cc th h mai sau. V vy, t l !u i thi gian x hi

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l mt t l thp hn. Tt nhin, iu ny cn tu thuc vo mc thu nhp quc dn
ca mi n!c v kh nng d! tha vn l!u ng ca nn kinh t quc dn.
Nu ta gi C
t
l chi ph ti thi im t ca thi gian quy hoch (trong t!ng lai);
gi B
t
l li ch mang li ca d n ti thi im t trong t!ng lai. Ta c gi tr ca chi
ph v li ch tnh quy i v thi im hin ti t
0
(thi im bt u thc hin quy
hoch hoc d n) t!ng ng l C
0
v B
0
:

0
t
0
t t
C
C
(1 r )
$
"
#
,
0
t
0
t t
B
B
(1 r )
$
"
#
(3-2)
Nu chn thi im hin ti bng 0 (t
0
= 0) th cng thc (3-2) !c vit li
theo dng (3-3) nh! sau:

t
0
t
C
C
(1 r)
"
#
,
t
0
t
C
B
(1 r)
"
#
(3-3)

Bng 3-3: Gi tr chi ph v li ch d n tnh quy i v thi im hin ti
Thi gian
t
Chi ph hng nm C
t

(10
6
ng)

Chi ph quy i v thi
im hin ti C
0
(10
6
ng)

Li ch hng
nm B
t
(10
6
ng)

Li ch quy i v thi
im hin ti B
0

(10
6
ng)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
1 4.000 3.636.364 0 0.000
2 2.000 1.652.893 0 0.000
3 150 112.697 200 150.263
4 150 102.452 500 375.657
5 150 93.138 1.000 620.921
6 150 84.671 2.000 1.128.948
7 150 76.974 2.000 1.026.316
8 150 69.976 2.000 933.015
9 150 63.615 2.000 848.195
10 150 57.831 2.000 771.087
Tng cng 7.200.000 5.950.611 11.700.000 5.854.402

Nu thi gian quy hoch l T nm th!ng ly bng tui th ca d n quy hoch
hoc n thun l thi gian hot ng ca d n sau khi !c xy dng dng lm tiu
chun phn tch kinh t d n, khi chi ph v li ch tng cng tnh quy i v thi
im hin ti s l:

T
t
t
t 1
C
C
(1 r )
"
"
#
%

T
t
t
t 1
B
B
(1 r )
"
"
#
%
(3-4)
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Gi s c mt d n thu li vi thi gian quy hoch T nm. Chi ph cho d n
gm 2 phn: Chi ph xy dng cng trnh !c thc hin trong 2 nm u vi mc 4 t
ng (nm th nht) v 2 t ng (nm th hai); chi ph qun l v khai thc hng nm
l 150 triu ng k t nm th 3 tr i.
Li ch khai thc t d n bt u t nm th 3 tr i vi s tin thu !c hng
nm thng k trong ct (4) bng 3-3. p dng cng thc 3-4 c th tnh !c tng chi
ph v li ch 10 nm u tin tnh quy i v thi im hin ti ( u nm th nht)
th hin trong bng 3-3.
Trong bng 3-3: ct (2) l chi ph hng nm; ct (3) l chi ph hng nm !c
tnh quy i v thi im hin ti; ct (4) l li ch thu !c hng nm; ct (5) l li
ch hng nm !c tnh quy i v thi im hin ti.
Theo bng 3-3 tng s tin chi ph hng nm ca 10 nm u tin l 7.200.000
ng, nh!ng khi tnh quy i v thi im hin ti s l 5.950.611 ng. Cng li ch
tng nm s l 11.700.000 ng nh!ng khi tnh quy i v thi im hin ti th gi tr
ca n ch t!ng !ng vi s tin l 5.854.402 ng. D rng thy rng, cng trnh
cng nhanh !a vo khai thc cng mang li li ch cao v cng nhanh hon vn.

3.3. Cc ch tiu nh gi hiu qu kinh t ca d n

nh gi ph!ng n chp nhn !c v mt hiu qu u t! !c thc hin
thng qua cc ch tiu kinh t !c trnh by d!i y.
3.3.1. Gi tr thu nhp rng ti thi im hin ti NPV (Net Presnt Value)
Gi tr thu nhp rng tnh theo thi im hin ti l gi tr tnh quy i v thi
im hin ti ca mt d n, sau khi tt c chi ph v li ch ca d n !c khu
hao vi cng mt t s chn sn. Gi tr thu nhp rng ca d n trong thi gian quy
hoch tnh theo thi im hin ti !c xc nh theo cng thc:

T
t t
t
t 1
(B C )
NPV B C
(1 r)
"
$
" $ "
#
%
(3-5)
Trong :
B
t
- rng tin thu nhp nm th t (ng);
C
t
- chi ph nm th t;
T- tui th cng trnh hoc thi gian quy hoch;
r- h s chit khu (t l khu hao).
Nu gi tr thu nhp rng ca mt d n l NPV & 0 ph!ng n !c coi l chp
nhn !c v vn u t! c th thu hi !c trong thi gian quy hoch T. Trong tr!ng

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hp ng!c li NPV ' 0, ph!ng n quy hoch khng chp nhn !c v mt kinh t.
D n c NPV cng ln th hiu qu u t! cng cao.
3.3.2. Ch tiu t s li ch v chi ph B/C
T s gia li ch B v chi ph C tnh theo thi im hin ti l mt ch tiu phn
nh hiu qu u t!. C th thy ngay l, t s B/C phi ln hn 1 th mi c kh nng
thu hi vn u t! trong thi gian quy hoch bng tui th ca d n T.

T
t
t
t 1
T
t
t
t 1
B
(1 r)
B / C
C
(1 r)
"
"
#
"
#
%
%
(3-6)
Khi gi tr B/C ( 1 th ph!ng n !c coi l chp nhn !c. T s ny cng
ln, kh nng thu hi vn cng nhanh v hiu qu u t! cng ln.
3.3.3. Ch s thu hi vn bn trong IRR (Internal Rate of Return)
Ch s thu hi vn bn trong (IRR) l mt ch tiu quan trng th hin tc thu
hi vn ca mt d n trong thi gian quy hoch.
Ch s thu hi vn bn trong IRR chnh l t l khu hao lm cho gi tr thu nhp
rng trong thi gian quy hoch T bng 0, tc l:
NPV = B C = 0 (3-7)
Trong B v C l li ch v chi ph !c tnh quy i v thi im hin ti.
Cng thc (3-7) v th c th vit d!i dng (3-8) nh! sau:

T
t t
t
t 1
(B C )
NPV B C
(1 IRR)
"
$
" $ "
#
%
= 0 (3-8)
Nh! vy, IRR cng chnh l mc li sut ti a m d n c th tr ho vn trong
thi gian quy hoch T.
Ph!ng n quy hoch !c gi l chp nhn !c v mt kinh t nu gi tr IRR
ln hn mt gi tr cho php no :
IRR & i
cp
, trong i
cp
l t l khu hao cho php.
T l khu hao cho pho i
cp
theo quan im kinh t do nh n!c quy nh m
bo s pht trin cn i ca nn kinh t quc dn, theo quan im ti chnh t l ny
khng !c v!t t l li sut vay vn thc hin d n.
Xt theo quan im ti chnh, nu mt ch u t! no (mt cng ty, mt t!
nhn hoc nh n!c) phi vay vn vi li sut i no s c 3 tr!ng hp xy ra:
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- Nu IRR = i th ch u t! ho vn khi kt thc d n
- Nu IRR< i th ch u t! b l
- Nu IRR> i th ch u t! s c li
Xt theo quan im kinh t, vic phn tch kinh t d n theo hai tr!ng hp sau:
- Nu IRR & i
cp
th vic u t! vo d n khng gy s mt cn i cho nn
kinh t quc dn
- Nu IRR< i th d n cn phi xem xt k l!ng v cn phn tch thm cc
li ch x hi v mi tr!ng v cc li ch khc ca quc gia quyt nh.
xc nh gi tr IRR cn thc hin cc php tnh ng dn. Cc b!c tnh
ton nh! sau:
B!c 1: Gi nh tr s IRR
B!c 2: Tnh gi tr B, C v NPV theo cng thc dng (3-5) vi t l khu hao IRR:
B!c 3: Kim tra iu kin NPV=0:
Nu NPV ) * vi * l s d!ng kh nh cho tr!c, th gi tr IRR chnh l gi
tr cn tm.
Nu NPV ( * vi * l s d!ng kh nh cho tr!c, th gi tr IRR ch!a phi l
gi tr cn tm, cn gi nh li gi tr IRR v tin hnh tnh ton li t b!c 2.
Nu gi tr IRR ( gi tr cho php (th!ng l gi tr ca t l khu hao r) th
ph!ng n quy hoch chp nhn !c. Gi tr IRR cng ln th thi gian thu hi vn
cng nhanh v hiu qu u t! ca d n cng ln.
3.3.4. Thi gian hon vn
T
h
= T
xd
+
0
K
D
(3-9)
Trong : Hiu ch bnh qun hng nm:
D =
T
t vht
t 1
kt
(B C )
T t
"
$
$
%
(3-10)
t
kt
- nm bt u khai thc;
B
t
- hiu ch nm th t;
C
vht
- chi ph vn hnh nm th t;
K
0
- vn u t! ban u;
T
xd
- thi gian xy dng cng trnh.
Mt d n !c coi l chp nhn !c v mt kinh t nu T
h
) gi tr cho php.

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3.4. Phn tch chi ph v li ch trong quy hoch ngun n!c

Phn tch chi ph v li ch i vi cc d n quy hoch ngun n!c l cng vic
kh phc tp do kh xc nh cc gi tr v li ch v chi ph ca cc hng mc cn
tnh ton. Phn tch chi ph v li ch cng bao gm phn tch kinh t v phn ch ti
chnh. Trong mc ny trnh by mt s ni dung chnh khi phn tch chi ph v li ch
theo quan im kinh t.
3.4.1. Phn tch chi ph i vi cc d n quy hoch ngun n!c
Chi ph !c tnh i vi d n quy hoch ngun n!c rt a dng c th l!ng
ho !c cng c khi ch !c tnh hoc khng l!ng ho !c. Nhng hng mc kh
l!ng ho lin quan n cc vn v x hi hoc mi tr!ng. Nhng chi ph !c
tnh tu thuc vo d n c th th!ng bao gm nhng hng mc chnh nh! sau:
- Vn u t! cho h thng cng trnh v cc bin php phi cng trnh. Bin
php phi cng trnh c th l bin php pht trin rng phng h, b tr li
cc khu dn c!, cc bin php cnh bo v d bo v.v
- Cc chi ph vn hnh sa cha h thng cng trnh
- Tin gii phng mt bng v n b khi thc hin cc d n
- Thit hi kinh t do mt kh nng sn xut phn din tch t dnh cho
lm cng trnh v phn din tch dnh cho gii phng mt bng
- Cc chi ph nhm chng nhim mi tr!ng do d n gy ra
- Thit hi do tc ng xu n mi tr!ng v cc hot ng kinh t khc
khi thc hin cc d n quy hoch (do nh h!ng xm nhp mn, thit hi
i vi ngh c, s thay i c ch cy trng v.v).

3.4.2. Phn tch li ch i vi cc d n quy hoch ngun n!c
Cng t!ng t nh! vic phn tch chi ph, vic phn tch li ch cng rt phc tp
v rt a dng. D!i y trnh by cch phn tch li ch d n i vi mt s ni dung
chnh khi lp cc d n quy hoch pht trin ngun n!c.
a. Li ch cp n!c t!i v tiu ng
- Sn l!ng la go tng ln do c cng trnh cp n!c t!i v lm tng thu
nhp quc dn.
- Lm tng thu nhp quc dn t vic xut khu la go.
- Lm tng sn phm cho x hi do s thay i tp qun canh tc v thay i
ngnh ngh sn xut ca khu vc di dn.
- Li ch mang li do gim sc lao ng cho ng!i trng la vng !c cp
n!c. Ng!i nng dn s c c hi lm nhng ngh ph khc lm tng sn
phm x hi.
- Lm tng sc sn xut ca cc lnh vc c lin quan: sn xut xi mng, st
thp, cng nghip ch bin...
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- Ngoi ra cn c nhng li ch khng tnh !c bng tin. l cc vn v
ci thin iu kin mi tr!ng, li ch x hi khc mang li.

b. Li ch pht trin thu nng
- Li ch do cung cp in cho cc ngnh kinh t mang li: tng nng sut lao
ng, tng tr!ng cc ngnh kinh t, tng c hi vic lm gp phn tng thu
nhp ca nn kinh t quc dn.
- Lm h gi thnh in nng do pht trin thy nng v gim ngoi t do nhp
khu in nng.
- Lm thay i ch dng chy vng h du c li cho sn xut nng nghip,
giao thng thy v.v...

c. Pht trin vn ti thu
- Tng kh nng vn chuyn l!u thng hng ho trn th tr!ng.
- Lm gim gi thnh vn chuyn hng ho.
- To nhiu cng n vic lm cho x hi.

d. Hiu qu phng l
- Lm gim thit hi do l lt gy ra
- n nh kinh t vng l, to iu kin pht trin kinh t vng l
- Gim thit hi do ci to mi tr!ng vng l
- Ci thin i sng nhn dn vng ngp l
- Ci thin mi tr!ng vn ho x hi vng l.

Trn y l nhng ni dung chnh khi phn tch li ch ca d n quy hoch.
Ngoi ra cc li ch khc nh! pht trin du lch, nui trng thy sn, ci to mi
tr!ng, thay i c li v mi tr!ng sinh thi v cc li ch khc cng !c phn tch
tu thuc vo tng d n c th.

3.5. V d v nh gi hiu qu kinh t d n

Ly d n no vt sng Ninh C lm v d v phn tch kinh t d n. D n do
Cng ty T! vn v chuyn giao cng ngh Tr!ng i hc Thy li thc hin nm
2000-2001 (Bo co D n no vt sng Ninh C, B Nng nghip v Pht trin nng
thn, H Ni, 4-2001).
3.5.1. Gii thiu d n
Sng Ninh C nhn n!c sng Hng t ca Mom R, chy theo h!ng ng Bc
- Ty Nam ra bin ti ca Lch Giang. Tng chiu di sng l 52 km. Knh Qun
Liu c di trn 2 km, ni sng y vi sng Ninh C v tr cch ca sng 28 km.
Knh Qun Liu nhn n!c t sng y chy vo sng Ninh C v l trc giao thng
thu quan trng trong vng. Sng Ninh c l ngun n!c duy nht cung cp cho cc

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vng t!i thuc cc huyn Hi Hu, Nam Ninh, Xun Tr!ng. Tng din tch vng
t!i ca cc huyn ly n!c t sng Ninh C thng k trong bng 3-4. L!u lc sng v
vng h!ng li th hin trn hnh 3-1.
Bng 3-4: Din tch t!i v tiu theo n v hnh chnh 2001
([13] Bo co D n no vt sng Ninh C, B Nng nghip v Pht trin nng thn, H Ni, 4-2001)
TT n v hnh chnh F t!i (ha) F tiu (ha)
1 Huyn Xun Tr!ng 4.737
2 Huyn Hi Hu 16.551 16.315
3 Nam Ninh 8.927,5 18.343,5
4 Huyn Ngha H!ng 15425.0
Tng cng 30176 50083.5

Trong nhng nm gn y do hin t!ng bi lp ca sng v cc on cc b
l!ng n!c chuyn vo sng Ninh C gim gy ra hin t!ng nhim mn su vo t
lin nn kh nng cp n!c cho cc knh dn rt cng thng, gy kh khn cho qun
l vn hnh cp n!c, c bit l cc vng thuc huyn Hi Hu tnh Nam nh.
Bng 3-5: Din tch hn hng nm trong vng t!i
Khu vc Din tch t!i (ha) T!i ch ng
(ha)
Hn theo thi tit
(ha)
Hn th!ng xuyn
(ha)
Xun Tr!ng 4.737,0 1.950 1.200 1.587,0
Hi Hu 16.551,0 6.123 5.000 4.728,0
Nam Ninh 8.927,5 3.000 3.000 1.927,5
Tng cng 30.215,5 11.073 9.200 8.242,5

Tnh trng hn l gim nng sut la ch yu l v ng Xun. Theo nh gi
ca a ph!ng nng sut la b gim thp t 10% n 30%, c th nh! sau:
- Din tch hn th!ng xuyn do thiu ngun n!c l 8.242,5 ha gim nng
sut n 30%. Phn din tch ny chim 27,3% tng din tch t!i.
- Din tch hn do thi tit l 9.200 ha gim nng sut t 10%.

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Hnh 3-1: Bn vng d n sng Ninh C
(Bo co D n no vt sng Ninh C, B Nng nghip v Pht trin nng thn, H Ni, 4-2001)

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khc phc tnh trng thiu n!c lp d n no vt vi phm vi no v bin
php cng trnh nh! sau:
! No vt on ca vo Mom R t ca vo sng Hng qua cng Hnh Thin,
trn chiu di 2838,7m. Lm k bo v b t nhm y dng chy v pha
b li (b hu).
! No vt ton b bi gia tr!c cng Mc vi chiu di l 1048m m bo
cho dng chy xui thun.
! Gia c sa cha k n ng (b hu Lch su) gi s n nh ca lng
chnh.
Khi l!ng xy lp chnh ch yu l khi l!ng no vt hai on sng ti Mom
R v on t cng Ko n cng Mc 2. Tng hp khi l!ng xy lp !c tng hp
trong bng 3-6.
Bng 3-6: Tng hp khi l!ng xy lp chnh

No vt Cc k bo v b
TT Loi cng tc n v
Mom R Mc 2 n ng Mom R
Tng cng
1 t o m
3
1.335.583,0 408.540,0 9.890,4 5.998,7 1.760.012,1
2 xy M100 m
3
501,0 278,0 779,0
3 lt khan va M75 m
3
887,0 1.683,5 2.570,5
4 Vi a k thut 100m
2
47,8 60,8 108,5
5 ri m
3
1.118,3 1.118,3
6 R 0.5x1x2 r 1.692,0 1.692,0
7 R 1x1x2 r 1.274,0 1.274,0
8 Rng f=60, l=10m rng 259,0 602,8 861,8
9 Dm si m
3
458,0 349,0 807,0
10 p quai m
3
955,5 955,5
11 p t 110,7 110,7

3.5.2. nh gi hiu qu kinh t
C s nh gi
nh gi hiu qu kinh t !c tin hnh trn c s cc gi nh sau:
! i sng kinh t ca d n: Tnh theo gi nh thi gian tn ti d n
bng thi gian bi li ca lng dn: T = 20 nm
! Thi gian thi cng trong vng 1 nm
! Gi u vo, u ra theo mt bng gi ca Nam nh qu IV/2001.
! D kin kh nng pht huy hiu qu ca d n:
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+ Nm th nht 60% thu nhp ca d n hng nm;
+ Cc nm cn li t 100% hiu qu.
Chi ph ca d n (C)
Tng chi ph bao gm: Tng vn u t! ban u (K); Chi ph qun l vn hnh
(C
QLVH
).
a. Vn u t! ban u (K)
D kin vn u t! xy dng !c phn b trong 1 nm: Tng vn l:
41.003.078.393 ng
b. Chi ph vn hnh (C
QLVH
)
Tng chi ph vn hnh bao gm chi ph l!ng, chi ph nng l!ng in v.v...
Theo tiu chun 14TCN 113- 1997 trong giai on nghin cu kh thi ly bng 3%
Tng vn u t! xy dng cng trnh.
nh gi li ch d n (B)
Hin nay, theo thng k ca S Nng nghip & PTNT tnh Nam nh, vng d
n th!ng xy ra thiu n!c v ng Xun do ngun n!c b nhim mn. Din tch b
thiu n!c ch yu thuc huyn Hi Hu v mt phn ca Xun Tr!ng. Tnh trng
thiu n!c ch yu l la ng Xun. Tng din tch th!ng b thiu n!c do to
ngun 8.245 ha. Nng sut b gim t 10% n 30%. Do vy trong tnh ton chn
nh! sau:
- Din tch b thiu n!c F = 8.245 ha.
- Nng sut la khi n!c ly bng nng sut la ti Hi Hu nm 1999 l
7.560 kg/ha.
- Nng sut la khi b thiu n!c gim bnh qun 15% so vi mc trn.
- Li ch d n ch ly bng li ch tng ln hng nm cho phn din tch b
thiu n!c (8.245 ha) khi !c cp n!c.

Xc nh cc ch tiu hiu qu ca d n
1. Gi tr thu nhp rng ti thi im hin ti (NPV)
T
t t
t
t 1
(B C )
NPV
(1 r)
"
$
"
#
%

Trong :
B
t
- rng tin thu nhp nm th t (ng);
C
t
- chi ph nm th t;
T- tui th cng trnh, trong d n chn bng 20 nm;
r- h s chit khu.
Tiu chun nh gi l: NPV ( 0.

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Theo kt qu tnh ton c:
Vi T =20 nm NPV = 70.889.714.480 ng.
2. Ch tiu t s li ch v chi ph
T
t
t
t 1
T
t
t
t 1
B
(1 r)
B / C
C
(1 r)
"
"
#
"
#
%
%

Kt qu cho gi tr B/C ( 1, c th l:
Vi T =20 nm B/C = 2,59.
3. Ch s thu hi vn bn trong (IRR)
!c tnh theo cng thc:
T
t t
t
t 1
(B C )
NPV B C
(1 IRR)
"
$
" $ "
#
%
= 0
Theo tiu chun nh gi IRR ( +r,
Theo kt qu tnh ton c IRR = 29,5%.
4. Thi gian hon vn
T
h
= T
xd
+
0
K
D

Trong :
Hiu ch bnh qun hng nm: D =
T
t vht
t 1
kt
(B C )
T t
"
$
$
%

t
kt
- nm bt u khai thc;
B
t
- hiu ch nm th t;
C
vht
- chi ph vn hnh nm th t;
K - vn u t! ban u.
Theo kt qu tnh cho T
h
= 5,0 nm.
5. T s gi tr thu nhp rng v vn u t! ban u vi T =20 nm NPV/K=1,73
Kt qu tnh ton li ch sau khi c d n trnh by bng 3-10; kt qu tnh thu
nhp rng v gi tr IRR xem bng 3-8 v 3-9.
Nhn xt: Cc ch tiu kinh t theo tnh ton u t hiu qu kinh t.
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NPV ( 0.
IRR ( 10% B/C = 2,59 & 1 T
h
= 5 nm
NPV/K ( 0,1.
Vi cc ch tiu kinh t nh! trn cho thy hiu qu u t! ca d n t!ng i cao.
Tng hp vn u t!
Tng vn u t! xy dng l 41.003.078.393 ng. Trong :
! Xy lp: 28,831,372,430 ng
! Chi khc: 8,317,069,519 ng
! D phng: 3,854,636,445 ng
Cc hng mc vn !c thng k trong bng 3-7.
Bng 3-7: Tng hp vn u t!
TT Hng mc Gi tr DT tr!c thu Thu VAT Gi tr sau thu
A Xy lp 27.458.449.933 1.372.922.497 28.831.372.430
B No vt sng 25.780.083.492
1 No vt sng cc on sng 16.624.549.079 831.227.454 17.455.776.532
2 Kinh ph pht gm cu, cng 1.503.054.765 75.152.738 1.578.207.504
3 o v vn chuyn t 6.424.856.625 321.242.831 6.746.099.456
4 K n ng 1.659.609.677 82.980.484 1.742.590.161
5 K Mom R 1.246.379.788 62.318.989 1.308.698.777
C Chi ph khc 7.583.699.563 758.369.956 8.317.069.519
- Giai on chun b u t! 416.583.035 41.658.303 458.241.338
1 Kho st + lp BCNCKT 409.090.909 40.909.091 450.000.000
2 Thm nh BCNCKT 7.492.125 749.213 8.241.338
- Giai on thc hin u t! 6.787.386.252 678.738.625 7.442.315.353
1 Chi ph kho st giai on TKKT 454.545.455 45.454.545 500.000.000
2 Thit k ph (T l % Xy lp) 642.619.000 64.261.900 706.880.901
3 Thm nh TKKT 16.209.575 1.620.957 17.830.532
4 Thm nh tng d ton 14.597.170 1.459.717 16.056.887
5 Lp h s mi thu XL 29.065.644 2.906.564 31.972.208
6 Gim st k thut XD 171.161.599 17.116.160 188.277.759
7 Chi ph qun l d n XL 400.514.951 40.051.495 440.566.446
8 Th nghim m hnh 476.190.476 47.619.048 500.000.000
9 R ph bom mn 1.818.181.818 181.818.182 2.000.000.000
10 nh gi tc ng mi tr!ng 63.636.364 6.363.636 70.000.000
11 n b gii phng mt bng 2.700.664.200 270.066.420 2.970.730.620

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TT Hng mc Gi tr DT tr!c thu Thu VAT Gi tr sau thu
- Giai on kt thc xy dng 379.730.276 37.973.028 416.512.828
1 Kim tra cht l!ng CT 54.916.900 5.491.690 60.408.590
2 Khi cng, bn giao CT 18.181.818 1.818.182 20.000.000
3 Thm nh & quyt ton 23.809.524 2.380.952 25.000.000
4 Chi ph bo him CT 282.822.034 28.282.203 311.104.238
D Cng d ton (A+B) 35.042.149.496 2.131.292.453 37.148.441.949
E D phng 3.504.214.950 350.421.495 3.854.636.445
Tng d ton 38.546.364.445 2.481.713.948 41.003.078.393

Bng 3-8: Tnh ton gi tr thu nhp rng NPV v B/C (n v tnh: ng)

TT Nm Chi ph QLVH
Tng chi ph hng
nm (ng)
Tng li ch hng
nm (ng)
Li ch quy i
r=10%
Chi ph quy i
r=10%
1 2003 41.003.078.393 8.651.303.984 7.864.821.803 37.275.525.812
2 2004 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 4.418.839.973 11.916.396.672 1.016.605.249
3 2005 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 4.418.839.973 10.833.087.884 924.186.590
4 2006 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 9.848.261.712 840.169.628
5 2007 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 8.952.965.193 763.790.571
6 2008 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 8.139.059.266 694.355.064
7 2009 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 7.399.144.788 631.231.877
8 2010 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 6.726.495.261 573.847.161
9 2011 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 6.114.995.692 521.679.237
10 2012 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 5.559.086.993 474.253.852
11 2013 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 5.053.715.448 431.139.865
12 2014 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 4.594.286.771 391.945.332
13 2015 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 4.176.624.337 356.313.938
14 2016 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 3.796.931.216 323.921.762
15 2017 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 3.451.755.651 294.474.329
16 2018 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 3.137.959.682 267.703.936
17 2019 1.230.170.923 1.230.170.923 14.418.839.973 2.852.690.620 243.382.759
18 2020 1.230.170.923 1.230.170.923 14.418.839.973 2.593.355.109 221.257.054
19 2021 1.230.170.923 1.230.170.923 14.418.839.973 2.357.595.554 201.142.776
20 2022 1.230.170.923 1.230.170.923 14.418.839.973 2.143.268.685 182.857.069
Tng cng: 23.372.068.972 64.375.147.365 282.609.263.471 117.512.498.340 46.629.783.859
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NPV = 70.882.714.480
B/C = 2,52
NPV/K =1,73

Bng 3-9: Tnh ton gi tr IRR
Nm
th
Chi ph vn hnh
Tng vn u t!
(ng)
Li ch hng nm
(ng)
Chi ph hng nm
quy i
IRR=0,295%
(ng)
Li ch hng nm
quy i
IRR=0,295%
(ng)
1 41.003.078.393 41.003.078.393
2 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 8.651.303.984 733.496.729 6.680.543.617
3 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 566.406.740 8.597.868.233
4 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 437.379.722 6.639.280.489
5 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 337.744.959 5.126.857.520
6 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 260.806.918 3.958.963.336
7 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 201.395.304 3.057.114.545
8 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 155.517.609 2.360.706.213
9 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 120.090.818 1.822.939.160
10 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 92.734.222 1.407.675.027
11 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 71.609.438 1.087.007.743
12 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 55.296.863 839.388.219
13 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 42.700.281 648.176.231
14 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 32.973.190 500.522.186
15 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 25.461.923 386.503.618
16 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 19.661.716 298.458.393
17 1.230.170.923 1.230.170.923 14.418.839.973 15.183.762 230.469.801
18 1.230.170.923 1.230.170.923 14.418.839.973 11.724.913 177.968.958
19 1.230.170.923 1.230.170.923 14.418.839.973 9.053.987 137.427.767
20 1.230.170.923 1.230.170.923 14.418.839.973 6.991.496 106.121.828
23.372.068.971 268.190.423.498 44.199.308.984 44.063.992.883

Kt qu tnh th dn cho IRR=29,5%.

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Bng 3-10: Tnh ton gi tr thu nhp thun tu ca 1 ha la v ng xun
v li ch mang li tr!c v sau d n

Hng mc
n gi
(ng)
n v S l!ng
Gi tr
(ng)
I. Thu nhp thun tu tr!c khi c d n
1. Sn l!ng thc trn 1 ha 85% 1.800 kg 6.426 11.566.769
2. Tng chi ph 10.350.700
a. Chi ph lao ng cng 265 5.300.000
b. Chi ph u vo 3.583.500
Ging 7.500 kg 85 637.500
Phn chung 200.000 tn 8,4 1.680.000
m 2.500 kg 168 420.000
Ln 1.200 kg 280 336.000
Kali 2.500 kg 84 210.000
Thuc tr su 60.000 kg 5 300.000
c. Thu my 560.000
d. Thy li ph 403200
e. Thu nng nghip 504.000
3. Gi tr thu nhp thun ty 1.216.069,4
II. Thu nhp thun tu sau khi c d n
1. Sn l!ng thc trn 1 ha (100%) 1.800 Kg 7.560 13.607.964
2. Tng chi ph 10.642.460
a. Chi ph lao ng 20.000 cng 265 5.300.000
b. Chi ph u vo 3.583.500
Ging 7.500 kg 85 637.500
Phn chung 200.000 tn 8,4 1.680.000
m 2.500 kg 168 420.000
Ln 1.200 kg 280 336.000
Kali 2.500 kg 84 210.000
Thuc tr su 60.000 kg 5 300.000
c. Thu my 524.160
d. Thu li ph 655.200
e. Thu nng nghip 579.600
3. Gi tr thu nhp thun tu 2.965.504
Li ch thc ca 1 ha la sau khi c d n: 1.749.434,60
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Tng hp:
- Din tch hn gim t 10% n 30% nng sut l 8242 ha, ly trung bnh
gim 15% nng sut
- Nng sut la v ng Xun ly theo ti liu thng k ca Hi Hu nm
1999: 7.560 kg/ha
- Thu nhp tng sau d n trn 8242 ha b hn l: 8242 x 1.749.434 =
14.418.839.973 ng.

3.6. Gi n!c v nh gi n!c

N!c l loi hng ho c bit v rt kh nh gi. Theo quy lut gi tr th gi tr
ca 1 m
3
n!c l l!ng sn phm tng thm khi s dng l!ng n!c . Tuy nhin,
khng phi lc no gi tr ca n!c cng !c nh gi nh! vy. Chng hn n!c s
dng cho ci to mi tr!ng, m bo yu cu sinh thi th khng th tnh !c bng
tin hoc sn phm m n to ra. V vy, vic nh gi n!c l mt cng vic rt kh
khn, n khng phi ch ph thuc vo nh sn xut hoc nhu cu ca ng!i s dng
n mang tnh x hi cao v cn c s can thip ca nh n!c.
Vn cn quan tm l vic nh gi n!c nh! th no cho mt d n pht trin
ngun n!c. Gi n!c qu cao v ln hn gi tr ca n th ng!i nng dn s khng
s dng n!c t d n. Ng!c li nu gi n!c thp s c nhiu ng!i s dng n!c
nh!ng c th vic u t! s b l do sut u t! cao. Bi vy, vic nh gi n!c theo
quan im kinh t l mt vn phc tp v phi !c xem xt t cc kha cnh: ca
ng!i u t! vo d n thu li; ca ng!i nng dn; ca chin l!c pht trin kinh t
ca nh n!c; vn x hi v sinh thi.
Mt gi n!c !c gi l ti !u nu n lm tng thu nhp quc dn nh!ng c th
li khng c li i vi ng!i u t! vo d n thu li. Khi nh n!c s c bin
php tr gi cho ng!i nng dn hoc b l cho ng!i u t! vo d n.
Ni tm li, vic nh gi n!c khng ch da trn quan im ti chnh, quan
im kinh t m cn phi ch n n kha cnh x hi mi tr!ng v sinh thi. Do
vy, nh n!c cn c s can thip nht nh trong qu trnh nh gi n!c i vi cc
d n pht trin ngun n!c.

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Ch!ng 4

M HNH HO TRONG QUY HOACH
VA QUN L NGUN N!C

4.1. Qu trnh la chn ph!ng n quy hoch ngun n!c
La chn cc ph!ng n ca bi ton quy hoch v qun l ngun n!c th!ng
!c thc hin theo cc trnh t sau y:
1. Xc nh mc tiu ca bi ton quy hoch hoc qun l h thng.
2. Xc lp tp cc ph!ng n c th (ph!ng n cng trnh, ph!ng n ci to
h thng, ph!ng n vn hnh h thng, ph!ng n s dng ngun n!c...).
3. M phng h thng bng m hnh m phng.
4. S dng m hnh m phng nh gi phn ng ca h thng theo cc
ph!ng n c th xc nh cc ph!ng n chp nhn !c. Cc ph!ng
n chp nhn !c l cc ph!ng n tho mn cc iu kin k thut, cc
iu kin rng buc v mi tr!ng v cc iu kin rng buc khc i vi
h thng.
5. Tm ph!ng n ti !u nht hoc ph!ng n hp l trong s cc ph!ng n
chp nhn !c bng ph!ng php m phng hoc ph!ng n ti !u ho.

Trnh t trn c th m t trn s 4-1.
Khi phn tch la chn ph!ng n quy hoch th!ng ng dng hai ph!ng php
rt c tr!ng ca l thuyt phn tch h thng, l: Ph!ng php ti !u ho v
ph!ng php m phng.
Ph!ng php m phng l ph!ng php so snh trc tip cc ph!ng n chp
nhn tm ph!ng n c hiu qu kinh t cao nht v tho mn cc iu kin k thut
v cc rng buc.
Ph!ng php ti !u ho tm ph!ng n ti !u bng cch lp v gii bi ton ti
!u i vi bi ton ang xem xt.
Cc ph!ng php ti !u ho sau y th!ng dng trong quy hoch v qun l
ngun n!c:
- Ph!ng php quy hoch tuyn tnh;
- Ph!ng php gii bi ton ti !u phi tuyn c dng v khng dng o hm;
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Ch!ng 4- M hnh ha... 65
- Ph!ng php quy hoch ng;
- Ph!ng php d tm ti !u.

Nh! vy, phn tch la chn ph!ng n quy hoch mt cch hp l nht cn
phi thit lp cc m hnh ton theo mc tiu khai thc h thng. Ta phn bit hai loi
m hnh ton i vi h thng ngun n!c: m hnh m phng v m hnh ti !u ha.

Tp cc ph!ng n c
th (ph!ng n s
dng n!c, ph!ng n
cng trnh v.v)
Tp cc gi tr u
vo ca h thng
(dng chy sng ngi,
ti liu a hnh v.v)

M HNH
M PHNG
H THNG
Bng ph!ng php m phng
Tm ph!ng n hp l trong s cc
ph!ng n chp nhn !c bng
ph!ng php m phng
Bng ph!ng php ti !u ha
Tm ph!ng n hp l trong s
cc ph!ng n chp nhn !c
bng ph!ng php ti !u ho

Tp cc ph!ng n
chp nhn !c
TM PH!ONG N TI !U
Xc nh mc tiu ca bi ton

Hnh 4-1: S m t qu trnh la chn ph!ng n quy hoch
hoc qun l h thng

M hnh m phng m t qu trnh vt l v cc hot ng ca h thng !c
xy dng nhm nhn thc h thng, xem xt ng thi ca h thng v phn tch kh
nng t !c ca cc mc tiu khai thc h thng t ra. M hnh ti !u !c thit
lp nhm mc ch tm ph!ng n quy hoch ti !u bng ph!ng php ti !u ho.

4.2. M hnh m phng h thng
4.2.1. Khi nim v m phng
Quan im h thng hin i i hi phi xy dng cc m hnh h thng, c
bit i vi nhng h thng ln v phc tp. Cc m hnh h thng nhm m t cc
qu trnh vt l ca h thng, cc hot ng ca h thng v ch lm vic ca h
thng.

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M phng h thng l ph!ng thc m t mt h thng thc bng mt h thng
khng thc do ng!i nghin cu to ra. Trn h thng nhn to, cc qu trnh vt l
ca m hnh thc !c m t gn ng hoc t!ng t. Cc quy lut vn ng ca h
thng thc !c suy ra t nhng kt qu nghin cu trn h thng do ng!i nghin cu
to ra.
C nhiu cch m phng, bao gm: M hnh vt l, m hnh ton v.v... Chng
hn qu trnh tp trung n!c trn l!u vc c th m t bng m hnh t!ng t in. Cc
quy lut chuyn ng n!c trong lng dn c th m t bng cc m hnh vt l !c
xy dng trong phng th nghim theo cc tiu chun t!ng t.
Khi nghin cu cc h thng k thut v h thng ngun n!c ng!i ta s dng
m phng ton hc.
M phng ton hc l s biu t cc quy lut vt l v qu trnh hot ng ca
h thng bng cc biu thc ton hc bao gm cc hm s, cc cng thc ton hc,
cc biu thc logic, cc bng biu v cc biu .
Nh! vy, c th rt ra nh ngha: M hnh m phng l s biu t cc quy lut
ca h thng bao gm cc qu trnh vt l v ng thi ca h thng bng cc biu
thc ton hc.
Cc m hnh ton s dng m phng h thng thc khng th phn nh y
cc tnh cht, quy lut chuyn ng v.v... ca h thng thc, v cc qu trnh t
nhin ca h thng thc b gin ho hoc !c biu t theo mt "quan nim" no
ca ng!i nghin cu khi h thit lp cc m hnh m phng. Tu thuc vo mc
ch nghin cu m biu t v s gin ho theo cc dng khc nhau. Tiu chun nh
gi cht l!ng ca m hnh m phng l s sai khc gia gi tr thc v gi tr tnh
ton ca cc c tr!ng m ng!i nghin cu quan tm.
M hnh m phng i vi h thng bt k c dng sau:
Y = H ( U, X, A ) (4-1)
vi rng buc: G ( Y, X, U, A ) ! 0 (4-2)
trong : X - vc t cc bin vo ca h thng v l hm ca thi gian, X = X(t),
X(t) = ( x
1
(t), x
2
(t),..., x
j
(t),..., x
n
(t)) J = 1, n (4-3)
U - vc t cc bin iu khin v cng l hm ca thi gian, U = U(t),
U(t) = (u
1
(t) , u
2
(t) ,..., u
i
(t) ,..., u
n
(t)) i = 1, m (4-4)
Y - cc bin ra ca h thng, Y = Y(t),
Y(t) = ( y
1
(t), y
2
(t), ...., y
ip
(t) , ...., y
p
(t) ip = 1, p (4-5)
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A - vc t cc thng s m hnh m phng h thng,
A = (a
1
, a
2
,..., a
iL
,... a
L
) i
L
= 1, L (4-6)
G - vc t biu th cc hm rng buc ca h thng, ta c th vit:
G
jg
( Y, X, U, A) ! 0 ; J
g
= 1, Ng (4-7)
H - k hiu biu th dng hm ca m hnh m phng.

4.2.2. Thit lp m hnh m phng
Vic thit lp m hnh m phng !c tin hnh theo nhng b!c sau y:
1. Thu thp thng tin v h thng, xc nh mc tiu khai thc v lp s h
thng theo mc tiu nh.
2. Xc lp cu trc h thng v m t bng s cc mi quan h gia cc
thnh phn trong h thng.
3. Chn cc thng s ca h thng c tr!ng cho mi quan h gia cc thnh
phn ca h thng v thit lp cc biu thc ton hc, cc biu thc logic
ca cc qu trnh trn. M hnh ton ca h thng bao gm cc m hnh
thnh phn v s ghp ni gia chng. Do cn xc nh:
+ Ph!ng thc m t cc m hnh thnh phn, bao gm:
- M phng cc quy lut v cc qu trnh vt l ca h thng.
- M phng cc qu trnh tc ng vo h thng t mc tiu.
- M phng hm mc tiu khi mc tiu khai thc i vi h thng xc lp.
+ S lp ghp cc m hnh thnh phn.
+ Cc biu thc logic m t cho chin l!c iu khin h thng v tho
mn cc rng buc ca h thng.
4. Kim tra s hp l ca m phng v xc nh cc tham s ca m hnh
theo ti liu quan trc !c.

Hin nay tn ti kh nhiu m hnh m phng !c s dng rng ri trong quy
hoch v qun l ngun n!c. in hnh l cc m hnh loi HEC: HEC1, HEC2,...,
HEC6, HEC-HMS, HEC-RESIM; cc m hnh h MIKE: MIKE11, MIKE21, MIKE-
BASIN v rt nhiu cc m hnh khc.

4.2.3. S dng m hnh m phng xc lp mc tiu v ph!ng thc
khai thc
y l b!c i u tin trong phn tch v thit k h thng ngun n!c. i vi
mt h thng bt k, vic xc nh mc tiu ban u ch l nh tnh, mc t !c ca
mc tiu t ra cn !c kim tra bng tnh ton vi cc m hnh m phng xc
lp. Cng vi mc tiu khai thc h thng cn xc nh bin php cng trnh v quy
m cc cng trnh cn !c xy dng. Ngoi ra, cng cn phi khng nh kh nng

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p ng ca h thng i vi cc yu cu khai thc h thng. Tt c nhng vn ny
ch !c lm r khi s dng m hnh m phng trong qu trnh tnh ton v phn tch.
Kt qu tnh ton bng m hnh m phng cho php s b quyt nh nhng vn
chnh sau y:
! Quyt nh mc tiu khai thc h thng bao gm nhng yu cu v n!c
!c chp nhn v mc p ng i vi mc tiu khai thc t ra. L!ng
ho mc tiu khai thc bng cc hm mc tiu v cc rng buc v mc tiu.
! Ph!ng thc khai thc ngun n!c trn h thng.
! Cu trc h thng bao gm cu trc h thng cng trnh, h thng cc yu
cu v n!c v mi quan h ca chng trn h thng.
! Tp cc ph!ng n c th: cc ph!ng n cng trnh v cc ph!ng n khai
thc s dng ngun n!c.
! Cc gii hn v rng buc ca h thng: !c m t bng cc biu thc
rng buc ton hc.

C th ni m hnh m phng l cng c nhn thc h thng v nh h!ng
quy hoch v qun l h thng ngun n!c.

4.3. M hnh ti !u ho trong quy hoch ngun n!c

Ph!ng php ti !u ho trong quy hoch ngun n!c !c s dng kh rng ri
trn th gii v !c trnh by trong nhiu ti liu c lin quan (Biswas, A.K, Jellali,
M., and Stout G.E., (eds.) (1993): Water for Sustainable Development in the TWenty-
fist Century,oxford University Press (ISBN 0 19 563303 4). Daniel P. Louks, Jery R.
Stedinger, Dougias A. Haith: Water Resource Systemt Planning and Analysis,
International Institute for Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, Delft, the
Netherlands, 1981, ISBN 0 139 45923 5; Mays L.W., Tung Y.K., Hydrosystems
engineering and management, McGraw-Hill, Inc, 1992, ISBN 0 070 41146 7; Grigg
N.S., Water Resources Management: Principles, Regulations, and Cases, McGraw-
Hill,1996. ISBN 0 070 41146 7).
Ph!ng php ti !u ho l ph!ng php xc nh li gii ca h thng theo mc
tiu khai thc h thng bng cch l!ng ho chng thnh cc hm mc tiu. Sau khi
xc nh !c mc tiu ca bi ton quy hoch th vn quan trng nht cn t ra l
xy dng hm mc tiu ca bi ton quy hoch cn gi l thit lp bi ton ti !u. M
hnh m t hm mc tiu !c gi l m hnh ti !u. Vic xy dng hm mc tiu tu
thuc vo nhim v ca bi ton quy hoch v tnh phc tp ca h thng. Trong thc
t th!ng gp cc bi ton a mc tiu do nhng mc ch khai thc khc nhau. D!i
y s trnh by cc dng c bn ca hm mc tiu i vi bi ton thit k h thng,
pht trin h thng v qun l iu hnh h thng ngun n!c.
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4.3.1. M t tng qut bi ton ti !u h thng
Gi s c h thng c cu trc no . Gi X(t) l vc t cc thng tin vo, U(t)
l vc t iu khin, Y(t) l vc t cc thng tin ra, Z(t) l vc t bin trng thi, A l
vc t thng s cu trc ca h thng. Ta c :
X(t) = ( x
1
(t), x
2
(t), . . .., x
n1
(t))
U(t) = ( u
1
(t), u
2
(t), ......, u
n2
(t))
Y(t) = ( y
1
(t), y
2
(t), ...... , y
n3
(t)) (4-8)
Z(t) = ( z
1
(t), z
2
(t), ....... , z
n4
(t))
A = (a
1
, a
2
, ...................., a
n5
)

M hnh m phng h thng c dng :
Y(t) = H(X(t), U(t), Z(t), A) (4-9)
Cn thit k v iu khin h thng sao cho cc tr mt hm mc tiu no :
F(X(t), Y(t), Z(t), U(t), A) " (cc tr) (4-10)
Vi rng buc :
G
j
(X(t), Y(t), Z(t), U(t),A) ! b
j
j = 1, m (4-11)

Ta c th chia ra lm ba loi bi ton khc nhau.
a. Bi ton thit k
i vi bi ton thit k th!ng quy nh tr!c ch lm vic ca h thng, do
vc t U(t) bit tr!c v quy lut thay i ca bin trng thi Z(t), X(t) cng
bit. Hm mc tiu (4-10) khi ch cn mt loi bin l vc t A.
Nh! vy cc biu thc t (4-9) n (4-11) c th vit d!i dng gin ho, tc l
khng cn m t cc bin bit trong ph!ng trnh tng qut:
Ta c hm mc tiu s l:
F(a
1
, a
2
,, a
n
) " cc tr (4-12)
A
Vi rng buc:
G
j
(a
1
, a
2
,..., a
n
) ! b
j
j = 1, m (4-13)
Trong : A = (a
1
, a
2
,..., a
n
)

(4-14)
l tham s cu trc ti !u ca h thng.
Ta gi bi ton ny l bi ton thit k.

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b. Bi ton iu khin
Gi thit h thng !c thit k, tc l cc thng s cu trc A bit tr!c.
Nu ta thay (4-9) vo (4-10) ta c dng gin ho:
F(X(t), Z(t), U(t)) " cc tr (4-15)
vi rng buc: Y(X(t), Z(t), U(t)) ! b
j
j = 1, m (4-16)
Ta cn phi tm vc t U(t) lm ti !u mc tiu no ang !c xem xt.
Bi ton nh! vy c tn gi l bi ton iu khin h thng.
c. Bi ton thit k tng qut
i vi bi ton thit k thc ra vic nh ra tr!c cc gi tr lm vic ca h
thng l khng hp l, v rng cc thng s cu trc ca h thng c mi quan h cht
ch vi ch lm vic ca n v quy lut thay i ca cc bin vo X(t). Do cn
gi nguyn ph!ng trnh dng tng qut (4-9) n (4-11). Tuy nhin tm nghim ca
dng bi ton ny khng n gin, khng nhng do tnh phc tp ca n m cn do s
bt nh v mc ch khai thc h thng na. Trong tr!ng hp c th dng ph!ng
php m phng tm nghim hp l.

4.3.2. Vn thit lp hm mc tiu v cc rng buc ca bi ton ti !u
a. Mc tiu v hm mc tiu
Cn phn bit khi nim "mc tiu " v "hm mc tiu".
Mc tiu khai thc h thng c th !c l!ng ho bng mt i l!ng no .
Cng c th khng !c l!ng ho. i l!ng dng l!ng ho mc tiu c th nhn
cc gi tr khc nhau, do c th gi l "mc" ca mc tiu ra. Chng hn mt
kho n!c !c thit k t!i th "t!i" l mc tiu khai thc cn din tch cn t!i hoc
qu trnh l!ng n!c yu cu t!i l mc t mc tiu.
Hm mc tiu l tiu chun nh gi cht l!ng t !c mc tiu ra vi mc
nh, cho nn trong nhiu ti liu cn gi l hm tiu chun hoc hm cht l!ng.
i vi bi ton t!i trn y c th c hai cch thit lp hm mc tiu:
- Hm mc tiu l mt hm s m n cn nhn gi tr cc tr (ln nht hoc nh
nht). Nu W(t) ch!a nh tr!c, tc l din tch cn t!i ch!a nh r ta c th t
hm mc tiu theo dng:
(4-17) J F( a , a , ..., a ) max
n
1 2
# "
Trong : J - hiu ch mang li ln nht. Trong bi ton phn phi n!c nu
nh tr!c ta c:
1 2 n
a , a , ..., a
(4-18) J
1
F(W(t)) max # "
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vi W(t) l vc t l!ng n!c !c phn phi cho cc khu t!i:
W(t) = (w
1
(t), w
2
(t),..., w
n
(t))
- Hm mc tiu !c nhn cc gi tr trong gii hn no . Nu yu cu v t!i
W(t) nh ta cn xc nh cu trc v thng s ca h thng cng trnh sao cho:
P{Wc(t)$W(t)}$ [ P] (4-19)
Trong P l k hiu xc sut, Wc(t) l l!ng n!c m kho n!c c th p ng
vi l!ng n!c n khc nhau. Biu thc (4-19) c ngha l xc sut m bo n!c
phi ln hn mc cho php p .
b. Rng buc ca h thng
Cc biu thc rng buc (4-13) hoc (4-16) m t gii hn hot ng ca h
thng khi thit k v iu khin n. Cc gii hn bao gm cc iu kin k thut,
cc yu cu khai thc ca h thng, cn bng n!c h thng v.v...
V d, cn iu khin mt kho n!c pht in vi mc tiu t ra l tng in
nng ca nh my trong thi k vn hnh l ln nht. Tc l:
(4-20)
T
0
J E(t)dt max # "
%
Trong : E(t) - nng l!ng in nhn !c ti thi im t.
iu kin (4-20) cn tha mn vi cc rng buc sau:
- Mc n!c trong kho n!c khng !c v!t qu mc n!c dng bnh th!ng
H
tb
v khng nh hn mc n!c cht H
o
, y l rng buc v k thut:
H
o
! Z(t) ! H
bt
(4-21)
- L!u l!ng tho qua mt t my khng v!t qu gii hn max, min ca n (rng
buc k thut):
q
min
! q(t) ! q
max
(4-22)
- L!u l!ng tho xung h l!u khng !c nh hn mt l!u l!ng cho php
m bo t!i cho vng h l!u v tha mn yu cu giao thng thy (rng buc do yu
cu khai thc h thng, dng:
q
x
(t) $ q
cp
(4-23)

4.4. Thit lp bi ton ti !u h thng ngun n!c v phn loi
4.4.1. Bi ton tng qut quy hoch ti !u h thng ngun n!c
Gi s ta lp quy hoch pht trin ngun n!c trong thi gian quy hoch T, trong
T l thi gian lp quy hoch k t thi im lp quy hoch (v d nm 2000 ta lp

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quy hoch pht trin ngun n!c n nm 2050 th thi gian quy hoch T=50 nm).
Gi s ta chia h thng ra n nt quy hoch. Nt quy hoch l cc nt ti c xy
dng cng trnh hoc c yu cu v n!c. Quy !c rng nu ti nt th j no khng
c cng trnh m ch c yu cu v n!c th chi ph xy dng cng trnh bng 0, cn
ti nt c xy dng cng trnh nh!ng khng c yu cu v n!c th li ch cng ly
bng 0. V d h Ho Bnh c nhim v phng l cho h du th nt h Ha Bnh
khng tnh li ch phng l cn ti H Ni ch tnh li ch phng l v chi ph cho cc
bin php chng l ti ch. Bi ton quy hoch pht trin h thng !c xc nh trn
c s phn tch quan h chi ph - li ch!c m t bi bi ton ti !u vi hm mc
tiu c dng:
Z = (4-24)
T n
t
tj tj
t 0 j 1
(1 r) (B C ) max
&
# #
' & "
((
- B
tj
l li ch thu nhp rng mang li ti nt quy hoch th j ti nm t. Nu ti
nm t ch!a c li ch mang li th B
tj
= 0.
- C
tj
l tng chi ph ti nt th j bao gm chi ph u t! xy dng cng trnh, chi
ph qun l vn hnh, cc thit hi tnh ti nt v.v... ti nm t. Nu ti nm t cng
trnh ch!a !c xy dng ti nt j th chi ph xy dng cng trnh ly bng 0, cc chi
ph khc nh! vn hnh h thng, thit hi gy ra ti nt c th khc 0.
- r l h s chit khu;
t
(1 r)
&
' l h s tnh quy i chi ph v li ch v thi
im ban u. Gi s thi im lp quy hoch vo nm 2000; thi im xy dng cng
trnh th j vo nm 2030 th t = 30.
T cng thc (4-24) cho thy nu li ch cng chm !c mang li th li ch thu
nhp rng cng gim.
Hm mc tiu (4-24) ch n thun phn tch hiu ch u t! tnh bng tin.
Trong thc t cc li ch v thit hi v mi tr!ng, x hi, chnh tr v.v, trong mt
s tr!ng hp khng th quy i thnh tin. Trong tr!ng hp nh! vy chng !c
m t bi cc biu thc rng buc hoc xem xt trong giai on quyt nh ph!ng n
quy hoch.
Quy hoch ngun n!c !c tin hnh theo nguyn l tip cn tng b!c, theo
tr!c tin cn xem xt bi ton thit k h thng, sau s gii bi ton pht trin
h thng. Ngoi ra, do s phn lp bi ton nn s cn phi gii cc bi ton ring
tr!c khi lp ghp trong bi ton tng qut. Bi vy, ta xem xt cc tr!ng hp ring.

4.4.2. Bi ton quy hoch ti !u (Bi ton thit k h thng)
Vi ph!ng thc s dng ti nguyn n!c v cc yu cu cp n!c n nh,
cn xc nh cu trc v quy m ca h thng cng trnh sao cho ti !u. y l bi
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ton thit k h thng (xem ch!ng 2). Nu ch!a tnh n li ch mang li v ch!a xt
n chin l!c u t! trong t!ng lai th dng (4-24) tr thnh bi ton cc tiu vn
u t!.
Z = (4-25)
n
j
j 1
C mi
#
"
(
n
x
trong C
j
l vn u t! thc t cho cng trnh th j.
Thc cht ca bi ton ny l xc nh ph!ng n thit k cng trnh c mc u
t! nh nht khi phi p ng yu cu n!c n nh tr!c.

4.4.3. Bi ton phn phi n!c ti !u
Khi kh nng khai thc xc nh, cn xem xt ph!ng thc s dng ti
nguyn n!c ti !u. Nu ch!a xem xt chin l!c u t! m ch phn tch ph!ng thc
s dng n!c tt nht th hm mc tiu (4-24) tr thnh bi ton cc i li ch kinh t
mang li trong quy hoch s dng n!c:
Z = (4-26)
n
j
j 1
B ma
#
"
(
y l bi ton s dng ti !u ngun n!c khi h thng cng trnh !c xy
dng. i vi cng trnh !c xy dng cn xc nh mt ph!ng n vn hnh tt
nht sao cho tho mn cc yu cu v n!c m hiu ch mang li l cao nht. D!i y
l mt v d v bi ton qun l vn hnh ti !u.
V d
Gi s mt h cha c nhim v cp n!c cho 3 h dng n!c h l!u. Gi W
l l!ng n!c cp xung h l!u hng nm t h cha; x
1
, x
2
, x
3
ln l!t l l!ng n!c
cp cho cc h dng n!c 1, 2, 3; Y l l!ng n!c cn li chy trong sng v h l!u
cc cng trnh ly n!c; B
1
, B
2
, B
3
l li ch mang li t cc h dng n!c v l hm s
ca l!ng n!c !c cp t!ng ng x
1
, x
2
, x
3
.

W
H dng
n!c 1
Y
H dng
n!c 2
H dng
n!c 3
H cha
x
1

x
2
x
3

1
2

3

Hnh 4-2

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Trong bi ton ny cc bin quyt nh l x
i
, i=1, 2, 3. Gi s li ch mang li
cho cc h dng n!c khi n !c cp l!ng n!c l x
i
!c biu th theo th trn
hnh 4-3 v c th khi qut ho nh! hm s bc 2 i vi cc bin s x
i
, c dng:

2
i i i i i i
B (x ) a x b x i 1, 2, 3 # & # (4-27)
Cn xc nh ph!ng thc phn phi n!c trn h thng sao cho tng li ch
mang li l ln nht.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Bin x:L!ng n!c phn phi cho h dng n!c (triu m3)
L
c
h

m
a
n
g

l
i

B

(
t
n
g
)
B1
B2
B3

Hnh 4-3

Rng buc v cn bng n!c ca h thng c dng:

1 2 3
x x x Y W ' ' ' # (4-28)
Hm B (x
1,
x
2
, x
3
) l hm mc tiu cn !c cc i c dng:

3
2
i i i i i i
i 1
B (B (x ) a x b x ) max i 1, 2
#
# # & " #
(
, 3 (4-29)
Nh! vy bi ton ti !u c th vit d!i dng tng qut:

3
2
i i i i i i
i 1
B (B (x ) a x b x )
Max
x
#
# # &
(
(4-30)
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Vi rng buc:

3
i
i 1
x Y W
#
' #
(
(4-31)

4.4.4. Ti !u ha trong qun l vn hnh h thng
4.4.4.1. Khi nim hm mc tiu
Trong giai on qun l h thng ngun n!c cn phi xc nh ph!ng n phn
phi n!c v iu hnh h thng mt cch hp l.
Bi ton qun l vn hnh h thng !c t ra nh! sau: Gi s cc yu cu v
n!c (t!i, tiu, cp n!c v.v...) !c n nh tr!c vi mc W
i
(t), vi i=1, 2, 3,...,
n, trong n l s cc yu cu v n!c i vi h thng. Ly mt s v d minh ho
nh! sau: Mt h cha n!c cn cp n!c cho 3 h dng n!c vi mi h dng n!c c
yu cu cp n!c t!ng ng l W
1
, W
2
,W
3
, ta c n=3.
Trong thc t th!ng gp 3 loi bi ton nh! sau:
- Dng th nht: iu hnh h thng sao cho mt hm hoc mt phim hm no
m n cn !c lm cc tr, hm mc tiu trong tr!ng hp c th c dng:
" min (hoc max) (4-32) J F(U, Z, X)dt
0
T
#
%
- Dng th hai: iu hnh h thng sao cho h thng t trng thi n nh
tr!c, !c biu din d!i dng bt ng thc hoc ng thc:
F(U, Z, X) $ B (4-33)
- Dng th ba: l t hp ca hai dng trn
Mt bi ton c th !c iu khin vi hai hoc nhiu mc tiu khc nhau, v
!c biu din bng mt trong hai dng trn. Trong tr!ng hp ta c bi ton iu
khin a mc tiu. a mc tiu c th !c t ra do cng mt ch th iu khin,
cng c th !c t ra bi nhiu ch th iu khin.
Cc dng hm (4-32) v (4-33) !c gi l hm mc tiu. Bi ton iu khin
m hm mc tiu c dng (4-32) gi l bi ton iu khin ti !u.
V d 1:
Gi s ta cn iu khin l!u l!ng n!c qua nh my thy in trong cc thng
ma kit sao cho tng in nng t !c l ln nht. Gi E l tng in nng t !c
trong thi gian khai thc; E
i
l in nng t !c thng th i, ta c hm mc tiu:

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(4-34)
n n
E E N (V , q , Q ) t m
i i i i i
i 1 i 1
# # ) " ( (
# #
ax
u
V(t) = ( v
1
(t), v
2
(t),..., v
n
(t) l cc dung tch ca h cha
q(t) = (q
1
(t), q
2
(t),..., q
n
(t)) l l!u l!ng ly ra t cc h cha bao gm l!u l!ng
vo cc cng ly n!c v l!u l!ng x xung h l!u.
Q(t) = (Q
1
(t), Q
2
(t),..., Q
n
(t)) l l!u l!ng t nhin chy vo cc h cha.
V d 2:
Cn iu khin cc cng trnh x l trong thi k l sao cho mc n!c cc
tuyn h du cng trnh kho n!c phng l khng v!t qu mt mc n!c cho php ti
tuyn khi xut hin l nh hn hoc bng l thit k phng l. Khi hm mc tiu
ca bi ton l cc bt ng thc c dng:
Z
j
(t) ! [ Z ]
j
(4-35)
V d 3:
Gi s cn iu khin l!u l!ng n!c qua h cha xung h du sao cho cc i
nng l!ng in trong ma l !c m t bng ph!ng trnh (4-34) v tho mn yu
cu phng l cho h du theo tiu chun ph!ng trnh (4-35) khi l xy ra trn h thng
khng v!t qu l thit k phng l. Trong tr!ng hp ny c bi ton a mc tiu vi
hai hm mc tiu c dng khc nhau.
4.4.4.2. Khi nim v rng buc ca bi ton iu khin
H thng !c iu khin th!ng phi chp nhn mt gii hn no !c gi
l min iu khin. C hai dng rng buc nh! sau:
- Rng buc v iu khin: vc t iu khin U(t) = (u1(t), u2(t),..., u
m
(t)) trong
bt k bi ton iu khin no cng khng th chn tu m th!ng !c rng buc
bi cc gii hn nht nh. Cc gii hn !c biu th bi cc bt ng thc c
dng:
(4-36) G (U, Z, X) B
u
!
trong G
u
(U, Z, X) l vc t cc hm rng buc; B
u
l vc t cc hng s. Dng
(4-36) !c vit d!i dng khai trin nh! sau:
vi cc B G (U, Z, X) B
u1 u1
!
u1
, B
u2
,..., B
um
l cc hng s.
(4-37) G (U, Z, X) B
u2 u2
!
............................
G (U, Z, X) B
um um
!
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Chng hn i vi kho n!c l!u l!ng qua cng trnh trong mt s tr!ng hp c
th b rng buc bi cc biu thc c dng sau:
q
j
min ! qx
j
(t) ! q
j
max (4-38)
- Rng buc v trng thi: Vc t bin trng thi ca h thng thay i ty thuc
v s thay i ca iu khin U(t). Tuy nhin, trng thi ca h thng cng ch !c
thay i trong gii hn nht nh, v !c biu th cng bng cc rng buc dng bt
ng thc:
vi cc B G (U, Z, X) B
x1 x1
!
x1
, B
x2
,..., B
x
L
l cc hng s.
(4-39) G (U, Z, X) B
x2 x2
!
............................
G (U, Z, X) B
xL xL
!
Chng hn khi iu khin i vi h thng kho n!c, th dung tch trong mi kho
n!c ch c th thay i trong gii hn ln nht v nh nht ca n:
V
jmin
! V
j
(t) ! V
jmax
(4-40)

4.5. Ti !u ha i vi bi ton pht trin h thng ngun n!c

y l bi ton tng qut nht ca quy hoch ngun n!c. i vi mt vng,
min hoc l!u vc sng, vi tim nng ngun n!c nht nh, ng!i lm quy hoch
phi nghin cu mt cch ton din gm nhng vn chnh nh! sau:
- Kh nng khai thc ngun n!c p ng yu cu pht trin vng
- S dng ti nguyn n!c vo nhng mc ch no l hp l.
- Gii php quy hoch v bin php cng trnh no cn !c thc hin.
- Chin l!c u t!: Trnh t u t! pht trin vng c v s dng n!c cng
nh! u t! xy dng cc cng trnh cp n!c, phng l... va ph hp vi
kh nng ti chnh m li ch mang li l ti !u nht.

Cc vn trn !c gii quyt trn c s phn tch v cn nhc nhiu mt, trong
phn tch li ch kinh t l cn bn nht. Phn tch li ch kinh t lin quan n vic
la chn ph!ng n ti !u v kinh t. Khi cc m hnh ti !u ho l cng c hu
hiu cho vic phn tch v tm kim ph!ng n ti !u.
Bi ton ti !u !c thit lp trong giai on ny l s lin kt ca cc bi ton
thit k, bi ton ti !u i vi cc yu cu v n!c v xem xt n trong chin l!c
pht trin (lp k hoch u t! pht trin).

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y l mt bi ton phc tp, bi vy khi gii quyt loi bi ton ny cn thit s
dng k thut phn cp phn bi ton ln thnh nhng bi ton con c s bin t
hn v phc tp hn v cch tm nghim.

4.5.1. Bi ton chin l!c u t! xy dng cng trnh
d hiu, ta chia bi ton lm hai loi: loi th nht ch xt chi ph u t! xy
dng; loi th hai c tnh n chi ph qun l vn hnh.
4.5.1.1. Khi ch!a tnh n chi ph qun l vn hnh (bi ton loi A)
Pht biu bi ton
Gi s i vi mt vng c th cn p ng yu cu v n!c W(t) trong thi gian
quy hoch T , yu cu t mc ti a cui thi k quy hoch l Wmax. Gi s trong
giai on gii bi ton thit k h thng cng trnh xc nh !c tp cc ph!ng n
cng trnh tho mn yu cu n!c t ra. Cn xc nh cc cng trnh no s !c
!a vo xy dng v xy dng vo thi gian no ca thi k quy hoch kinh ph
xy dng l nh nht.
V d:
V d mt h thng c 4 cng trnh s !c xy dng. Vn u t! xy dng C v
kh nng cp n!c W
c
bit. Gi s cc cng trnh !c xy dng phi p ng yu
cu n!c W(t). Yu cu xc nh trnh t u t! xy dng cc cng trnh sao cho chi
ph xy dng l ti thiu. Tc l, tm cc tiu ca hm mc tiu:
F = ( (4-41)
#
(
#
"
&
'
n
1 i
t
1 t
min
t
r) (1
it
C
it
x
Trong :
C
it
- chi ph xy dng i vi cng trnh th i:
C
it
= 0 nu n khng !c xy dng vo nm t;
C
it
= C
it
nu n !c xy dng vo nm t;
r - h s trit khu, t l bin thi gian tnh theo nm;
x
it
- h s ly gi tr bng 0 v 1: bng 0 tc l khng xy dng, khi nhn vi
C
it
s c tch bng 0, c ngha l khng c chi ph xy dng. Vic !a
vo h s x
it
d dng trong qu trnh tnh ton.

4.5.1.2. C tnh n chi ph qun l vn hnh (bi ton loi b)
Khi c k n chi ph qun l vn hnh trong giai on khai thc, hm mc tiu
ca chin l!c u t! pht trin h thng cng trnh s c dng sau:
F = " min (4-42)
T n
t
i i i it
t 0 i 1
(1 r) (a c b w )
&
# #
' ' '
( (
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Vi cc rng buc:
- L!ng n!c cp !c ca h thng cng trnh nm t phi ln hn hoc bng
l!ng n!c yu cu theo quy hoch ca nm :
(4-43)
n
it
i 1
w W(t
#
$
(
)
- Ch!ng trnh tho mn yu cu v n!c ca cng trnh th i vo nm t khng
v!t qu nng lc ca cng trnh l w
i
:
0! w
it
! w
i
(4-44)
Trong :
t - bin thi gian;
i - ch s cng trnh;
r - h s chit khu;
T - thi gian quy hoch tnh bng nm;
n - tng s cng trnh !c nghin cu trong quy hoch;
W(t) - nhu cu n!c tng cng ca vng;
W
i
- kh nng p ng yu cu n!c ln nht ca cng trnh th i;
c
i
- chi ph xy dng cng trnh th i;
a
i
- chi ph qun l cng trnh hng nm ca cng trnh th i,
(ly c nh cho mi cng trnh);
b
i
- chi ph vn hnh cho mi n v l!ng n!c ca cng trnh th i;
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it
- ch!ng trnh cp n!c ca cng trnh th i trong nm t.
Cch gii bi ton ti !u dng (4-42) !c thc hin t!ng t nh! bi ton ch!a
tnh n chi ph vn hnh, ch khc ch, vi mi ph!ng n pht trin h thng phi
tnh chi ph qun l vn hnh cng trnh.

4.6. Bi ton ti !u a mc tiu
4.6.1. Khi nim
Khi lp cc d n quy hoch v iu khin h thng ngun n!c, c th phi gii
bi ton a mc tiu. Bi ton !c t ra nh! sau:
Gi s mt h thng no !c c tr!ng bi vc t X:
X = ( x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
) (4-45)
Gi s c m mc tiu khai thc. Cn tho mn iu kin:
g
j
(X) ! b
j
vi j =1, 2,..., m (4-46)
Vi cc iu kin ti !u ring:

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f
1
(X)" min (max)
f
2
(X)" min (max)
.............................. (4-47)
f
i
(X)" min (max)
..............................
f
m
(X)" min (max)
Nh! vy, mi mt mc tiu khai thc u cn khai thc h thng sao cho ti !u
mc tiu ca mnh. Cc mc tiu m t trong biu thc (4-47) c th c quyn li mu
thun nhau. Tp hp cc im m quyn li ca mc tiu ny mu thun vi
quyn li ca mc tiu khc gi l vng tranh chp.
Bi ton m t theo biu thc (4-47) gi l bi ton a mc tiu.
Ta xt mt v d v thit k h thng kho n!c.
Mt h thng h cha n!c !c thit k vi nhim v pht in v phng l.
Gi s cc mc n!c dng bnh th!ng !c n nh. Cn xc nh dung tch phng
l trn h thng sao cho hiu ch pht in mang li l ln nht ng thi hiu ch
phng l cng ln nht.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
V
B
1

h
o
c

B
2

Hnh 4-4: Quan h B
1
= f
1
(V) v B
2
= f
2
(V)

Gi B
1
l hiu ch tng cng do hiu ch pht in mang li, B
2
l s gim thit
hi (!c coi l hiu ch mang li v mt phng l) do c s iu tit l cc kho n!c
th!ng l!u. Ta c bi ton ti !u hai hm mc tiu:
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d
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v
n
B
1
(V) " max (4-48)
v B
2
(V) " max (4-49)
Trong V l vc t cc dung tch phng l:
V = ( V
1
, V
2
, V
3
,..., V
j
, ... V
n
) (4-50)
Khi tng dung tch phng l ca cc kho n!c trn h thng cng ln th hiu
qu phng l B
2
cng ln. Nh!ng v mc n!c dng bnh th!ng n nh nn hiu
qu pht in B
1
cng gim. Nh! vy, hai mc tiu khai thc mu thun nhau. S mu
thun gia hai mc tiu phng l v pht in i vi mt kho n!c c lp c th
minh ha trn hnh 4-4.

4.6.2. Ph!ng php gii bi ton ti !u a mc tiu
Hin nay tn ti nhiu ph!ng php gii bi ton ti !u a mc tiu, nhng nguyn
tc chung l !a bi ton nhiu hm mc tiu v bi ton mt hm mc tiu (N. N. Moi
xeep: Cc vn ton hc trong phn tch h thng, Nayka - Mascova, 1981).
Ni chung, i vi bi ton a mc tiu, vic tm nghim ca bi ton thc cht
l bi ton ti !u c iu kin. Mt nghim !c gi l ti !u s mang li quyn li tt
hn cho mc tiu ny v s lm thit hi n quyn li ca mc tiu khc. Bi vy c
th ni, li gii ti !u bi ton a mc tiu l tm !c mt tho hip tt nht gia cc
mc tiu.
Ph!ng php trng s
Vi ph!ng php trng s ng!i ta !a hm mc tiu dng (4-47) v dng mt
hm mc tiu c dng:
F(X) = c
1
f
1
(X)+ c
2
f
2
(X) + ... + c
i
f
i
(X) +... + c
n
f
n
(X) (4-51)
Hay l: F(X) = (4-52)
n
i i
i 1
c f (X)
#
(
Vi 0 ! c
i
! 1 v = 1 (4-53)
n
i
i 1
c
#
(
Rng buc: g
j
(X) ! b
j
vi j =1, 2,..., m (4-54)

Cc h s c
i
!c chn ty thuc vo mc !u tin ca tng mc tiu. Quyn
li ca mi mc tiu b xm hi ty thuc vo mc !u tin ca cc mc tiu khc.
Khi gii bi ton ti !u dng (4-52), ng!i ta phi tnh ton theo cc ph!ng n
khc nhau ca s la chn cc h s c
i
. Trn c s phn tch kt qu cc ph!ng n v
nh h!ng ca vic chn cc c
i
n gi tr ti !u ca tng mc tiu s chn !c mt
nghim hp l, tc l chn !c tho hip chp nhn !c gia cc mc tiu.
S chn cc h s c
i
!c m t trn hnh 4-5.

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M t cc hm mc tiu ca
cc mc tiu ring f
i
(X)
Thit lp hm mc tiu chung

n
i i
i 1
F(X) c f (X)
#
#
(

Vi cc rng buc g
j
(X) ! b
j
; j =1, 2,..., m
Chn cc ph!ng n h s c
i
vi iu kin
0 ! c
i
! 1 v
n
i
i 1
c 1
#
#
(

Gii bi ton ti !u tm nghim ti !u:
- Tham s ti !u ca h thng: X
*
= (
1 2 k mk
x , x ,...., x ,..., x )
* * * *

- Cc gi tr ti !u cc hm mc tiu F(X
*
), f
i
(X
*
), vi i=1, 2,...,n
Phn tch nh h!ng ca cc ph!ng n la chn c
i
n
hm mc tiu ring ca cc i t!ng khai thc h thng.
T ra quyt nh ph!ng n chn

Hnh 4-5: S xc nh ph!ng n ti !u theo ph!ng php trng s

Ph!ng php s dng cc ch s tiu chun
Ph!ng php ny cng !a bi ton nhiu hm mc tiu v dng bi ton mt
hm mc tiu bng cch gii bi ton ti !u vi mt hm mc tiu ring trong khi
khng cho php gi tr ca cc hm mc tiu cn li v!t qu mt gii hn no . Gi
s c bi ton nhiu hm mc tiu c dng:
f
1
(X)" min
f
2
(X)" min
.................... (4-55)
f
i
(X)" min
....................
f
m
(X)" min

Vi rng buc:
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n
g
j
(X) ! b
j
vi j =1, 2,..., m (4-56)
Trong : X = (x
1
, x
2
,..., x
k
,..., x
mk
) l vc t m
k
tham s ca h thng.
Gi s chn mt hm mc tiu ring, chng hn f
1
(X), m n cn !c cc tiu,
ta c:
f
1
(X) " min (4-57)
Cc mc tiu cn li cn tho mn iu kin:
f
2
(X) ! f ( = + X)
2
*
1
f
3
(X) ! f ( = + X)
3
*
2
....................... (4-58)
f
i
(X) ! (X) f
*
= +
i i

.......................
f
n
(X) ! = + (X) f
*
n n
Cc gi tr +
i
= vi i =1, 2,..., n l cc gi tr n nh tr!c i vi hm mc
tiu th i. Vic n nh cc gi tr +
(X) f
*
i
i
= trong biu thc (4-58) s nh h!ng n
gi tr ti !u ca cc hm mc tiu cn li. Bi vy, trong thc t cn xem xt vic
thay i cc gi tr sao cho tho ng. Vn ny !c gii quyt bng cch
xem xt li ch v thit hi i vi cc i t!ng m yu cu ca h !c n nh tr!c
theo biu thc (4-58). Cch lm t!ng t c th thc hin i vi bt k hm mc tiu
no trong s n hm mc tiu ca bi ton.
(X) f
*
i
(X) f
*
i
Vi cch thay +
i
= ta c th vit: (X) f
*
i
f
i
(X) " min (4-59)
vi
l l
f (X) i ; 1, n - 1 ! + , # ! !

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M t cc hm mc tiu ca
cc mc tiu ring f
i
(X)
Chn hm mc tiu ring tm nghim ti !u f
i
(X)
V i cc rng buc g
j
(X) ! b
j
; j =1, 2,..., m
Chn cc ph!ng n h s +
l
vi l=1, 2, 3...n-1 v l,i
Gii bi ton ti !u tm nghim ti !u:
- Tham s ti !u ca h thng: X
*
= ( ) ,..., ,...., ,
* * * *
mk k
x x x x
2 1

- Gi tr ti !u hm mc tiu f
i
(X
*
)
Phn tch s hp l ca cc ph!ng n la chn +
i
n hm
mc tiu ring ca cc i t!ng khai thc h thng.
i =1
ng
Sai
i > n
i=i+1
Kt thc
ra quyt nh
Hp l
Khng
hp l

Hnh 4-6: S m t qu trnh la chn cc gi tr +
i
trong qu trnh tm nghim

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CHUONG 5- KY THUT PHN TCH H THNG... 85

Chuong 5

KY THUT PHN TCH H THNG NG DUNG
TRONG QUY HOACH VA QUN L NGUN N C

5.1. L thuyt phn tch h thng

Sau chien tranh the gii lan th hai, do yeu cau cua thuc te san xuat, cc nh
khoa hoc phai xem xt cc phuong php ton hoc nham tm kiem li giai toi uu khi
thiet ke v dieu khien cc he thong phc tap. Hai mon hoc mi ra di (vo nhng nam
50) - l Van tr hoc v L thuyet dieu khien. Hai mon hoc ny c mot muc tieu
chung l nghien cu cc chien luoc toi uu khi dieu khien v thiet ke cc he thong phc
tap. Tuy nhien, van tr hoc hung nhieu hon vo cc bi ton tinh, tc l cc bi ton
khong cha cc bien phu thuoc vo thi gian, hoac c th cng dua ve bi ton tinh
bang cch dua ve cc so do nhieu giai doan. Trong khi d l thuyet dieu khien lai bat
dau t cc bi ton dieu khien trong d c cha cc bien phu thuoc thi gian.
L thuyet dieu khien v van tr hoc d l cong cu rat hieu qua cho cc nh nhien
cu khi giai quyet cc bi ton thiet ke v dieu khien cc he thong ki thuat. Tuy nhien,
hai mon hoc ny cng chi dng lai o bi ton c quy mo khong ln. Trong thuc te
thung gap nhng he thong ln v cau trc phc tap, dac biet l nhng he thong c
cha nhieu yeu to bat dinh. Mot so he thong c cau trc yeu, khong cho php mo ta
bang ngon ng ton hoc mot cch chat ch. Trong nhng trung hop nhu vay, van tr
hoc v l thuyet dieu khien khong cho li giai mong muon. Nhng loai he thong nhu
vay di hoi mot phuong php phan tch khoa hoc, can can nhac nhieu mat v ket hop
phuong php hnh thc v phi hnh thc. ieu d di hoi mot su pht trien mi cua
ton hoc v do d ra di mot mon khoa hoc mi - L thuyet phan tch he thong. L
thuyet phan tch he thong thuc ra chi l giai doan pht trien cua van tr hoc v l
thuyet dieu khien.
5.1.1. Vn tr hc I g?
C the pht bieu mot cch tong qut nhu l mot dinh nghia ve van tr hoc
nhu sau:
Van tr hoc l mot mon khoa hoc m nhiem vu co ban cua n l tm kiem li
giai toi uu khi thiet ke mot he thong phc tap. Cc thong so cau trc cua he thong tm
duoc trong qu trnh toi uu ho goi l cc thong so toi uu thiet ke cua he thong.
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86 QUY HOACH V QUAN L NGUN NUC
Gia su can xc dinh cc thong so cau trc cua he thong vi su di hoi toi uu theo
mot tieu chun no day, tc l lm cuc tri mot hm muc tieu no d, c dang:
F(X) min (max) (5-1)
hoac F(x
1
, x
2
,..., x
i
,..., x
n
) min (max) (5-2)
vi cc rng buoc:
g
1
(x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
) b
1
(5-3)
g
2
(x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
) b
2
(5-4)
g
2
(x
3
, x3,..., x
n
) b
3
(5-5)
...................................
g
j
(x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
) b
j
(5-6)

...................................
g
m
(x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
) b
m
(5-7)
Trong d b
1
, b
2
,..., b
j
,..., b
m
l nhng gi tri d biet.
Gia su X l vc to hng n chieu cua cc bien thong so cau trc.
X = ( x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
) (5-8)
khi d he t (5-2) den (5-7) c the viet lai dui dang gon hon:
F(X) min (max) (5-9)
vi g
j
(X) b
j
J 1, m = (5-10)
Nghiem toi uu cua bi ton s l:

2
* * * *
(x , x , ..., x , ... x )
1 i
n
*
X = (5-11)
Neu he (5-9), (5-10) thoa mn, ta c nghiem toi uu cua bi ton .
Cc bieu thc ton hoc (5-9), (5-10) goi l mo hnh toi uu. Cc phuong php ton
hoc doi vi bi ton toi uu (5-9), (5-10) goi l cc phuong php toi uu. Trong thuc te,
cc phuong php toi uu ho c ten goi l "quy hoach ton hoc". Chang han quy hoach
tuyen tnh duoc p dung doi vi cc mo hnh toi uu dang tuyen tnh, quy hoach phi
tuyen duoc p dung doi vi cc bi ton phi tuyen.
Can phan biet r cc khi niem "bi ton toi uu" v " phuong php toi uu". Khi
xc dinh chien luoc toi uu mot he thong bang cch xc lap cc mo hnh toi uu dang
tong qut (5-9) v (5-10) goi l bi ton toi uu, cc phuong php giai cc bi ton dang
tren goi l cc phuong php toi uu.
\an tr hoc co nhiem vu co ban l tim kiem gia phap toi uu khi thiet ke hoc xac
lap mot chien luoc khai thac he thong tren co so thiet lap cac mo hinh toi uu v
phuong phap giai cac bi toan toi uu hoa.
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5.1.2. Khi nim v I thuyt diu khin
L thuyet dieu khien duoc nghien cu bat dau t cc doi tuong m chuyen dong
cua n duoc mo ta bang phuong trnh vi phan thung. Boi vay, de c khi niem ve bi
ton dieu khien hy bat dau t v du doi vi lp bi thuoc loai ny.
Gia su mot doi tuong chuyen dong theo quy luat duoc mo ta bang phuong trnh
c dang:

dS
f(x, s, u, t)
dt
= (5-12)
Trong d x=x(t) l tc dong t ben ngoi (nhieu) khong dieu khien duoc, s = s(t)
l bien trang thi cua he thong: u = u(t) l bien dieu khien duoc viet dui dang day du:
u = u(x(t), s(t), t ) (5-13)
Cng c the bien dieu khien u(t) chi phu thuoc vo mot hoac hai bien so cua
(5-13), chang han:
u = u(x(t), t): u = u(s(t), t) hoac u = u(t): u = u (s(t)): u = u(x(t)). (5-14)
Phuong trnh (5-12) mo ta su thay doi trang thi cua doi tuong dieu khien nen
cn goi l Phuong trnh trang thi.
Nhiem vu cua bi ton dieu khien l xc dinh chien luoc dieu khien, tc l tm
kiem dieu khien u(t) de doi tuong dieu khien dat muc tieu mong muon cua ngui dieu
khien. Muc tieu dieu khien duoc luong ho bang mot hm so c cha bien dieu khien
u(t), bien trang thi s(t) v nhieu x(t), duoc goi l hm muc tieu. Nhu vay, de dat duoc
muc tieu mong muon, can phai lm cuc tri hm muc tieu.
Gia su can dieu khien doi tuong no d, m quy luat chuyen dong cua n duoc
mo ta theo (5-12), t trang thi ban dau So = S(to) den trang thi St = S(T) sao cho dat
cuc tri mot phiem hm no day c dang:

T
0
J F(x, u, s, t)dt =

max (min) (5-15)
Vi bieu thc rng buoc l G(x,u,s,t) b : b l hang so cho truc.
Trong d J goi l hm muc tieu hoac cn goi l hm chat luong, c nghia khc
nhau tuy thuoc vo lp bi ton duoc nghien cu.
Nghiem cua bi ton dieu khien toi uu l vc to dieu khien toi uu:
U U (t)
* *
= (5-16)
Tuong ng vi dieu khien toi uu U
*
l qu dao toi uu S
*
:
S
*
= S (t)
*
(5-17)
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Nhu vay, nhiem vu cua bi ton dieu khien l tm dieu khien U
*
v qu dao dieu
khien S
*
de dua doi tuong dat duoc muc tieu dieu khien d dat ra.
Ta ay mot v du minh hoa vi mot ho cha lm nhiem vu pht dien. Bi ton
duoc dat ra nhu sau: Gia su dung tch ban dau cua ho cha tai thi diem t
0
l V
0
tuong
ng vi muc nuc ban dau l H
0
. Tm qu trnh luu luong qua tua bin q
tb
(t) sao
cho tong cong suat cua tram thuy dien trong khoang thi gian T t t
0
den t
n
(T = t
n
- t
0
)
l ln nhat.
Phuong trnh trang thi bieu thi su thay doi dung tch ho cha chnh l phuong
trnh can bang nuc:
( )
r
dV
Q(t) q (t) dt
dt
= - (5-18)
Vi: q
ra
(t) = q
tb
(t)+q
xa
(t)+q
tt
(t)
Hm muc tieu c dang:

tn tn
J N(t)dt 8,5q (t)H(t)dt
tb
to to
= =

max (5-19)
Vi rng buoc: q
min
q
tb
(t)q
max
Trong d:
Q(t), q
tt
(t) - luu luong den ho v luu luong ton that l cc dai luong ngau
nhien (nhieu ngau nhien):
q
tb
(t) - bien dieu khien - ieu khien cua he thong tai thi diem t:
H(t) - chenh lech cot nuc thuong ha luu: q
xa
(t) l luu luong xa tha tai thi
diem t: N(t) l cong suat cua tram thuy dien tai thi diem t:
V - dung tch ho tai thi diem t dng vai tr bien trang thi, V = V(t):
q
min
- luu luong nho nhat can xa xuong ha du de dam bao yeu cau cap nuc
cho ha du:
q
max
- gi tri ln nhat xa qua tuyec bin phu thuoc vo kha nang tho qua cc
to my.
Gia bi ton toi uu tren s tm duoc dieu khien toi uu l qu trnh luu luong qua
tua bin
tb tb
q q (t)
* *
= , su bien doi dung tch ho tuong ng
t
V V (t)
* *
= l qu dao toi uu
hoac cn goi l trang thi toi uu.

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5.1.3. Nhng han ch cua vn tr hc v I thuyt diu khin - S ra di
cua I thuyt phn tch h thng
Nhu d trnh by o tren, l thuyet dieu khien v van tr hoc l cc phuong php
rat hieu luc khi thiet lap chien luoc toi uu trong thiet ke v dieu khien cc he thong k
thuat v kinh te. Tuy nhien khong phai trung hop no cng c hieu luc boi l n c
nhng han che sau day:
1. Van tr hoc v l thuyet dieu khien di hoi su mo ta chat ch cc qu trnh
xay ra trong he thong bang cc hm ton hoc. Do vay n chi thch hop doi vi nhng
he thong c cau trc chat, tc l cc he thong m cc moi quan he trong n duoc mo ta
mot cch tung minh bang cc hm ton hoc.
2. oi vi nhng he thong ln v phc tap mac d c the thiet lap duoc cc mo
hnh toi uu, nhung cc phuong php toi uu hien c khong c hieu luc khi giai cc mo
hnh toi uu ny. Do han che ve phuong php toi uu ho, trong mot so trung hop ngui
ta thiet lap cc mo hnh gian ho dan den su khong chnh xc cua li giai hop l.
3. Vi nhng he thong c nhieu yeu to bat dinh, dac biet l bat dinh ve muc tieu,
khong the thiet lap duoc cc mo hnh toi uu v mo hnh dieu khien v thieu thong tin.
Trong trung hop d, muc tieu v dang cua bi ton toi uu (hoac dieu khien) s duoc
hnh thnh nh k thuat phan tch (thuoc pham tr l thuyet phan tch he thong), trong
qu trnh thiet lap bi ton.
4. Cuoi cng can nhan manh them l, van tr hoc v l thuyet dieu khien thung
di hoi mot su mo ta ton hoc chat ch v chnh xc cc qu trnh cua he thong. Nhng
he thong c cau trc yeu trong d c he thong thuy loi, dieu ny khong phai lc no
cng thuc hien duoc. Nhng he thong nhu vay s l doi tuong nghien cu cua l thuyet
phan tch he thong.
Do nhng han che cua van tr hoc v l thuyet dieu khien m mot mon hoc mi
ra di - L thuyet phan tch he thong. L thuyet phan tch he thong ke tha ton bo
phuong php ton hoc c trong van tr hoc v l thuyet dieu khien. Cc muc tieu cua
l thuyet phan tch he thong cng l muc tieu nghien cu cua bi ton van tr v bi
ton dieu khien - Chien luoc tm kiem li giai hop l cho he thong khi thiet ke v dieu
khien n.
Su pht trien cua l thuyet phan tch he thong l o cho n bo sung them he thong
phuong php luan v phuong php phan tch, bao gom:
He thong cc quan diem
He thong cc phuong php phan tch
Hon thien cc phuong php toi uu ha
Nguyen l ve tiep can he thong.
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Su bo sung ve mat l thuyet cua l thuyet phan tch he thong nham hon thien
kha nang lua chon li giai hop l doi vi cc he thong phc tap. R rng, l thuyet
phan tch he thong chi l giai doan pht trien cua l thuyet van tr v dieu khien. Nhu
vay van tr hoc v l thuyet dieu khien l mot bo phan co ban cua l thuyet phan tch
he thong. Ly thuyet phan tich he thong l mot mon khoa hoc duoc phat trien tren co so
van tr hoc v ly thuyet dieu khien bng cach dua vo he thong cac quan diem v
phuong phap phan tich hien dai, nhm hon thien kha nng lua chon li giai toi uu doi
voi cac he thong phuc tap.
Phan tch he thong c the hieu l nhng tap hop cc phuong php phan tch nham
tm li giai toi uu khi thiet ke hoac dieu khien mot he thong no d.
Su hnh thnh l thuyet phan tch he thong c lien quan chat ch vi nhng tien
bo ve phuong php tnh v cong cu tnh ton hien dai, dac biet l kha nang mo phong
tren my tnh dien tu.
Mot dac th quan trong cua l thuyet phan tch he thong l, trong khi van tr hoc
v l thuyet dieu khien coi trong viec su dung phuong php toi uu ha de tm ra li giai
toi uu cho he thong th l thuyet phan tch he thong lai su dung rat hieu qua phuong
php mo phong trong qu trnh tm kiem li giai hop l cho bi ton d dat ra.

5.2. H thng ph ng php lun ca l thuyt phn tch h thng

Nhu d trnh by o tren, muc dch phan tch he thong l xc dinh li giai toi uu
hoac hop l khi thiet ke v dieu khien he thong. Phan tch he thong bao gom he thong
cc quan diem, cc nguyen l v cc k thuat phan tch he thong. K thuat phan tch
he thong rat da dang bao gom ca cc phuong php chun v cc phuong php phi
hnh thc. Dui day, s trnh by he thong phuong php luan cua l thuyet phan tch
he thong.

5.2.1. Phuong php m phong v phuong php ti uu ha trong phn
tch h thng
Phan tch he thong, dac biet l he thong nguon nuc su dung hai cong cu chnh l
phuong php toi uu ho v phuong php mo phong. Phuong php toi uu ho c nhng
han che nhat dinh, de khac phuc nhng han che cua phuong php toi uu ho, ngui ta
p dung cc phuong php mo phong, mot phuong php rat dac th v c hieu luc cua
l thuyet phan tch he thong.
Phuong php mo phong l phuong php su dung cc mo hnh mo phong de dnh
gi chat luong cua he thong khi thiet ke v dieu khien n. Su phan tch chat luong cua
he thong duoc tien hnh bang cch dua ra tat ca nhng tnh huong hoac phuong n c
the v phan tch tat ca phan ng cua he thong m ta quan tam tuong ng vi cc tnh
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huong d dat ra. Theo su phan tch d ngui nghien cu lua chon nghiem cua bi ton
trong so cc tnh huong d dat ra. Nhu vay, phuong php mo phong chi tm nghiem
trong tap hu han cc tnh huong, boi vay nghiem cua bi ton c the khong trng vi
nghiem toi uu. Do d, phuong php mo phong khong cho nghiem toi uu m chi cho
nghiem gan toi uu. Cng v vay, nghiem cua bi ton duoc goi l li giai hop l ch
khong goi l li giai toi uu. Cc hm muc tieu thiet lap cho phuong php toi uu v
phuong php mo phong c dang tuong tu nhau hoac c dang khc nhau, nhung he
thong chi tieu dnh gi duoc dua vo nhu nhau doi vi hm muc tieu. Su khc biet cua
hai phuong php ny l o cho:
- Phuong php mo phong khong giai bi ton toi uu m chi tm cc gi tri kha di
chap nhan duoc doi vi hm muc tieu.
- V phuong php toi uu c nhng han che ve phuong php nhan nghiem, boi vay
c the c su gian ho trong mo phong doi vi cc qu trnh cua he thong, trong khi d
cc mo phong d duoc mo ta chi tiet hon khi su dung phuong php mo phong.

5.2.2. H thng cc quan dim v nguyn I tip cn h thng
5.2.2.1. H thng cc quan im
(1) L thuyet phan tch he thong coi trong tnh tong the, day chnh l quan diem
he thong, the hien tnh bien chng trong nghien cu he thong. Xuat pht t quan diem
he thong, khi nghien cu mot he thong can xem xt cc quy luat cua he thong trong
moi quan he tuong tc gia cc thnh phan cau thnh he thong v quan he cua he
thong vi moi trung tc dong len n. Quan diem d phai duoc luong ho bang cc mo
hnh ton hoc mo ta cc qu trnh cua he thong. ong thi v xu the pht trien cua he
thong duoc xc dinh nh cc mo hnh mo phong, v qua d c the pht hien cc tc
dong hop l len he thong. Su phan tch he thong trong moi quan he tuong tc gia cc
qu trnh trong he thong s pht hien tnh "troi", m n khong nhan biet duoc neu chi
phan tch cc qu trnh rieng r cua he thong.
(2) L thuyet phan tch he thong tha nhan tnh bat dinh cua he thong, bao gom
bat dinh ve muc tieu, bat dinh ve su trao doi thong tin trong he thong, su hieu biet
khong day du cua ngui nghien cu ve he thong v bat dong do su tc dong ngau nhien
t ben ngoi.
(3) Vi cc he thong ln, ton tai nhieu moi quan he phc tap lien quan den nhieu
linh vuc khc nhau. Boi vay, l thuyet phan tch he thong ton trong v tha nhan tnh
lien ngnh. Khi nghien cu cc he thong phc tap nhu vay, can thiet c su tham gia
cua nhieu ngnh khoa hoc. Trong qu trnh nhan nghiem phai xem xt den quyen loi
cua nhng doi tuong khc nhau v quan he qua lai gia chng trong he thong. Neu cc
quyet dinh chi v nhng quyen loi cuc bo th trong qu trnh pht trien cua he thong,
cc quy luat duoc thiet lap doi vi he thong s bi ph v.
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(4) Tha nhan tnh bat dinh, l thuyet phan tch he thong ch trong su ket hop
gia phuong php hnh thc v phuong php phi hnh thc, ket hop gia phan tch ton
hoc v kinh nghiem v ton trong vai tr cua tap the trong nghien cu.
5.2.2.2. Nguyn l tip cn h thng
oi vi nhng he thong phc tap do su ton tai cc yeu to bat dinh trong he thong,
ngui nghien cu khong the ngay mot lc pht hien het duoc nhng tnh chat cua he
thong, cng khong the du bo ngay duoc xu the pht trien cua he thong. Do d, cc
muc tieu khai thc he thong cng chi hnh thnh r nt sau khi thu phan ng cua he
thong bang cc k thuat phan tch hop l. Mo hnh mo phong dng vai tr dac biet
quan trong trong qu trnh tiep can he thong.
Qu trnh tiep can he thong l qu trnh tm li giai cua he thong tren co so lien
tiep lm r muc tieu cua khai thc he thong, v xem xt su can thiet bo sung thong tin
ve he thong.
Nguyen l tiep can tng buc trong phan tch cc he thong phc tap duoc coi nhu
l mot nguyen tac doi vi ngui nghien cu he thong.

5.3. Phn loi tng qut cc m hnh ti u

Hien nay ton tai kh nhieu cc phuong php toi uu ho c pham vi ng dung
khc nhau. Trong cc bi ton k thuat ngui ta co gang dua cc bi ton toi uu ve cc
dang chun tac d c v c the giai duoc. e lm duoc dieu d can c nhng gia thiet
ve nhng dieu kien gian ho sao cho ban chat vat l cua bi ton duoc bao ton mot
cch tuong doi. C the c mot so mau bi ton toi uu thch hop khi thiet ke v dieu
khien he thong nguon nuc. Do d trong ti lieu ny chng toi chi trnh by mot so
phuong php dien hnh cho cc dang p dung duoc.
5.3.1. Bi ton ti uu tng qut
Bi ton toi uu tong qut c the mo ta nhu sau:
Can tm cuc tri hm muc tieu c dang:
F(X) min (max) (5-20)
Vi he cc bieu thc rng buoc:
g
j
(X) b
j
, vi j =1, 2,..., m (5-21)
He (5-20) v (5-21) c the viet dui dang day du:

1 2 i n
F(x , x , ..., x , ..., x ) min (max) (5-22)
vi cc rng buoc:
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1 1 2 i n 1
2 1 2 i n 2
j 1 2 i n j
m 1 2 i
g (x , x ,...., x ,...., x ) b
g (x , x ,...., x ,...., x ) b
..................................................
g (x , x ,...., x ,...., x ) b
.................................................
g (x , x ,...., x ,
n m
...., x ) b
(5-23)
Vi cc bien cua hm so l vc to c dang:
X = (x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
) (5-24)
Nghiem toi uu cua bi ton toi uu l vc to nghiem :
X
*
= (x
1
*
, x
2
*
,..., x
n
*
) (5-25)

5.3.2. Bi ton quy hoach tuyn tnh
Bi ton (5-20), (5-21) duoc goi l tuyen tnh, neu hm muc tieu v cc rng
buoc deu l hm tuyen tnh doi vi cc doi so cua vc to X = ( x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
), tc l:
F(X) =
n
i i
i 1
c x
=
min ( max) (5-26)

vi rng buoc
n
j i i j
i 1
a x b
=

vi j = 1, 2,..., m: (5-27)
v x
i
0 vi i =1, 2,..., n

5.3.3. Bi ton quy hoach phi tuyn
Trong trung hop khi d chi mot trong hai bieu thc (5-20) hoac (5-21) l phi
tuyen th bi ton tren duoc goi l phi tuyen.
Cc bi ton phi tuyen duoc chia ra lm hai loai: quy hoach loi v quy hoach
lm. Bi ton quy hoach phi tuyen loi l bi ton m hm muc tieu l hm loi, cn cc
rng buoc tao thnh mot tap hop loi. Bi ton toi uu c rng buoc duoc goi l toi uu c
dieu kien, hay cn goi l bi ton cuc tri vung.
5.3.4. Bi ton cc tr| phim hm
Bi ton toi uu m hm muc tieu c dang (5-28) duoc goi l bi ton cuc tri
phiem hm:

1
0
x
.
x
J(Z) F(Z, Z, x) dx =

(5-28)
Vi Z l vc to cot Z =[ ]
T
1 2 n
z (x), z (x),..., z (x)
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.
Z =[
. . .
1
2 n
z (x), z (x)... z (x) ]
T

.
i
i
z (x) dz (x) / dx =

5.4. Ph ng php gii cc bi ton Quy hoch tuyn tnh

Quy hoach tuyen tnh l mon ton hoc nghien cu phuong php tm gi tri nho
nhat (min) hoac ln nhat (max) cua mot hm tuyen tnh (hm muc tieu) theo mot so
bien, thoa mn mot so hu han rng buoc duoc bieu dien bang he phuong trnh v bat
phuong trnh tuyen tnh.
5.4.1. Mt s v d
Xin trch ra mot so v du kinh dien ve cc bi ton thuc te c the mo ta theo dang
bi ton quy hoach tuyen tnh.
V d 1: Bi ton van tai
C m diem san xuat cng mot loai san phm a v n diem tieu thu b. Cho rang
trong 1 don vi thi gian luong cung v cau bang nhau, tc l:

i
m n
a b
j
i 1 j 1
=
= =
(5-29)
Goi x
ij
(x
ij
0) v c
ij
tuong ng l luong san phm v chi ph van chuyen cho 1
don vi san phm t i den j. Tm phuong n van chuyen x
ij
sao cho chi ph van chuyen
l nho nhat, tc l:

m n
ij ij
j 1 i 1
Z c x
= =
=
min (5-30)
Cc rng buoc cua bi ton s l:

n
ij j
j 1
m
ij i
i 1
ij
x b
x a
x 0
=
=
=
=
(5-31)
V d 2: Bi ton thuc don
Gia thu phai thiet ke mot thuc don dam bao nhu cau hm luong toi thieu hng
ngy cua 4 chat dinh dung l b
1
, b
2
, b
3
, b
4
. Gia su c hai loai thc an P
1
v P
2
can phai
mua cho thuc don tren. Hm luong chat trong 1 don vi moi thc an v gi moi loai
thc an nhu o bang 5-1.
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Bang 5-1: Bi ton thuc don
!" $%&'( )*+, -.'* -%/'( )0 ,12'( $23. ,*4) 5'
623. )*+, -.'* -%/'( 7*8 )98 ,:. ,*.;8 *!'( '(!<
=> =?
7> @
>
A
>>
A
>?

7? @
?
A
?>
A
??

7B @
B
A
B>
A
B?

7C @
C
A
C>
A
C?

D.E ,.F' )*2 > GH' IJ ,*4) 5' )
>
)
?

Tm phuong n mua luong hai loai thc an l x
1
v x
2
sao cho tien mua l t nhat
m van dam bao chat dinh dung toi thieu hng ngy.
Theo bi ton dat ra ta c hm muc tieu can toi uu l:

1 1 2 2
Z c x c x min = + (5-32)
V cc rng buoc:

11 1 12 2 1
21 1 22 2 2
31 1 32 2 3
41 1 42 2 4
i
a x a x b
a x a x b
a x a x b
a x a x b
x 0: i 1, 2, 3, 4
+
(5-33)

5.4.2. Hai dang co bn cua quy hoach tuyn tnh
5.4.2.1. Dng chnh tc
Neu hm muc tieu v rng buoc ( 5-20) v (5-21) l cc bieu thc tuyen tnh doi
vi cc bien so, ta c mo hnh toi uu l tuyen tnh: Mo hnh tuyen tnh duoc goi l chnh
tac neu cc rng buoc l dang thc. Ta c hm muc tieu cua mo hnh tuyen tnh l:

1 1 2 2 i i n n
F(X) c x c x ... c x ... c x min + + + + + (5-34)
Vi c
i
l hang so vi bien th i.
Vi rng buoc l:

j j1 1 j2 2 jn n j
g (X) a x a x ... a x b : j 1, m = + + + = = (5-35)
v x
i
0 vi i=1, 2,..., n.
Vi b
j
l hang so vi rng buoc th j: a
ji
l cc hang so.
Trong trung hop bi ton can tm cuc dai (max), phai nhan hm muc tieu vi
(-1) de dua ve bi ton toi uu dang chnh tac.
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Bi ton tm cuc dai (5-21) c dang:

1 1 2 2 i i n n
F(X) c x c x ... c x ... c x max + + + + + (5-36)
Vi c
i
l hang so vi bien th i.
Vi rng buoc l:

j j1 1 j2 2 jn n j
g (X) a x a x ... a x b : j 1, m = + + + = = (5-37)
v x
i
0 vi i=1, 2,..., n:
duoc dua ve dang chnh tac vi hm muc tieu:
max F(X) = min(-F(X))
tc l:

1 1 1 2 2 i i n n
F (X) F(X) c x c x ... c x ... c x min = - = - - - - - -

V du: Tm X =

(x
1,
, x
2
, x
3
, x
4
) sao cho hm muc tieu:
Z = x
1
+ 2x
2
- 3x
3
+ 4x
4
max
Vi cc rng buoc:
1 2 3 4
1 2 3 4
i
x x 7x x 100
2x 3x x 10x 800
x 0: i 1 4
- + + =
+ - + =

uoc dua ve dang chnh tac nhu sau:
Tm X =

(x
1,
, x
2
, x
3
, x
4
Z = -x
1
- 2x
2
+ 3x
5
- 4x
4
min
Vi cc rng buoc:

1 2 3 4
1 2 3 4
i
x x 7x x 100
2x 3x x 10x 800
x 0: i 1 4
- + + =
+ - + =

5.4.2.2. Dng chun tc
Dang chun tac l dang m rng buoc l bat dang thc, tc l:
g (X) a x a x ... a x ... a x b
j j1 1 j2 2 ji i jn n j
= + + + + + : j 1, m = (5-38)
v x
i
0 vi i =1, 2,..., n.
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5.4.2.3. - a bi ton QHTT v dng chun tc v dng chnh tc
+ Neu rng buoc c dang g
j
(X) b
j
: Nhan 2 ve cua bieu thc rng buoc vi (-1),
dua bi ton ve dang chun vi rng buoc dang (5-21).
+ ua bi ton chun tac ve dang chnh tac:
Bi ton dang chun c the dua ve dang chnh tac bang cch them cc bien phu
vo ve tri cua cc bat dang thc. C m rng buoc bat dang thc s c m bien phu. Do
d dang chnh tac mi s c n + m nghiem. Ta c:

n j
g (X) x 0
j +
+ = : j 1, m = (5-39)
trong d: x
n j +
l bien phu:
v x
i
0 vi i=1, 2,..., n.

5.4.3. |nh I co bn v cc d|nh ngha v quy hoach tuyn tnh
5.4.3.1. nh l c bn ca quy hoch tuyn tnh
Dinh l (pht bieu cho dang chnh tac): Phuong n toi uu cua quy hoach tuyen
tnh cha mot so bien duong dng bang so cc rng buoc dang dang thc doc lap,
cc bien cn lai c gi tri 0.
V du bi ton QHTT c 5 bien v 3 rng buoc nhu sau:

1 1 2 2 i i 5 5
F(X) c x c x ... c x ... c x min + + + + + vi n = 5
vi cc rng buoc dang thc:
a
11
x
1
+ a
12
x
2
+ . + a
15
x
5
= b
1

a
21
x
1
+ a
22
x
2
+ . + a
25
x
5
= b
2

a
31
x
1
+ a
32
x
2
+ . + a
35
x
5
= b
3
So rng buoc m = 3
Do d nghiem toi uu c 3 bien khc khong, hai bien cn lai c gi tri khong.
Chang han nghiem l: X ( , , 0, 0, )
*
= * * * .
Neu bi ton toi uu tuyen tnh dang chnh tac c nghiem th nghiem cua bi ton
s nam o cc diem cuc bien: cc dinh tam gic (doi vi bi ton phang) v dinh cc da
gic (doi vi bi ton 3 chieu) v.v... Cc phuong php tm nghiem cua bi ton thung
l cc php thu dan tai cc diem cuc bien. Gia su d d tm o tat ca nhng diem
cuc bien m khong tm duoc mot trung hop no c x
i
0 vi moi i th bi ton l
vo nghiem.
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5.4.3.2. Khi nim v phng n c s chp nhn - c
a. Bin c s (BCS) v bin t do (BTD)
Gia su ta xt mot bi ton toi uu chnh tac c n bien so, vi so phuong trnh rng
buoc dang thc l m. Ta goi:
Tap hop cc bien duoc chon tuy vi gia thiet l x
i
o, vi i=1 m,
trong d m l so cc phuong trnh rng buoc duoc goi cc bien co so.
Tap hop cc bien cn lai x
j
vi j i, j = (n-m) n duoc goi l bien tu do.
b. Ph ng n c s
L phuong n m cc bien tu do duoc chon bang khong, tc l ta gia dinh x
j
=0
vi moi j thuoc bien tu do.
Gi tri cua cc bien co so duoc xc dinh theo thu tuc sau:
- Chon bien co so cua bi ton
- Gia dinh cc gi tri cua bien tu do bang khong x
j
=0 vi moi j thuoc bien tu do.
- Xc dinh gi tri cua bien co so bang cch giai he cc phuong trnh rng buoc
sau khi thay cc gi tri bang khong cua bien tu do vo phuong trnh.
c. Ph ng n c s chp nhn c
L phuong n co so c cc bien co so nhan cc gi tri duong.
d. V d
Xt bi ton QHTT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Z 6x 2x 5x x 4x 3x 12x min = + - + + - +
Vi cc rng buoc:
x
1
+ x
2
+ x
3
+ x
4
= 4
x
1
+ x
5
= 2
x
3
+ x
6
= 3 (5-40)
3x
2
+ x
3
+ x
7
= 6
x
i
0, j = 1, 2,..., 7
Chon bien co so:
Ph- ng n 1:
- Chon cc bien x
4
, x
5
, x
6
, x
7
l bien co so, tc l X = (0, 0, 0, x
4
, x
5
, x
6
, x
7
).
- Thay cc gi tri cua X vo he phuong trnh rng buoc (5-40) tm duoc gi tri
cc bien l X = (0, 0, 0, 4, 2, 3, 6).
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Cc bien co so deu nhan gi tri duong vay phuong n 1 l phuong n co so chap
nhan duoc.
Ph- ng n 2:
- Chon cc bien x
2
, x
5
, x
6
, x
7
l bien co so, tc l X = (0, x
2
, 0, 0,, x
5
, x
6
, x
7
).
- Thay cc gi tri cua X vo he phuong trnh rng buoc (5-40) tm duoc gi tri
cc bien l X = (0, 4, 0, 0, 2, 3, - 6).
Trong cc bien co so c mot bien (x
7
) nhan gi tri am vay phuong n 2 khong
phai l phuong n co so chap nhan duoc.

5.4.4. Gii bi ton quy hoach tuyn tnh
5.4.4.1. Ph- ng php th
Phuong php do thi duoc dng khi so bien so 4. Ve phuong php ny c the
tham khao o nhieu ti lieu chuyen khao. Ta xem xt bi ton phang qua mot v du.
Bi ton:
Tm nghiem toi uu X (x , x )
1 2
* * *
= sao cho hm muc tieu:
Z = c
1
x
1
+c
2
x
2
max (5-41)
Cc rng buoc:

11 1 12 2 1
21 1 22 2 2
i
a x a x b
a x a x b
x 0: i 1, 2
+
(5-42)
Cch gii
Cch giai bi ton phang duoc tien hnh nhu sau:
1. V mien chap nhan duoc (mien D m X thoa mn rng buoc (5-40), xem hnh
(5-1).
+ Neu rng buoc l dang thc th mien chap nhan duoc l diem A, giao cua
dung N
1
M
1
v N
2
M
2
.
+ Neu rng buoc l bat dang thc th mien chap nhan duoc l hnh AN
1
OM
2

bao gom ca bien AN
1
v AM
2
.
2. V cc dung cng muc tieu (dung mc):
+ Cho mot gi tri cu the Z = Z
0
. V dung x
2
=
o 1
1
1 2
z c
x
c c
-
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+ Thay doi gi tri Z
0
ta duoc cc dung song song. Tren moi dung hm muc
tieu c cng gi tri. Gi tri Z
0
cng ln th dung x
2
cng xa diem '0.
3. Tm nghiem toi uu:
+ Di chuyen dung Z
0
(theo gi tri Z
0
) xc dinh duoc nghiem cuc dai tai A
+ Neu dung cng muc tieu tiep xc tai 1 dinh th nghiem toi uu l don tri.
+ Neu dung cng muc tieu tiep xc tai 2 dinh (1 canh) th nghiem toi uu l
da tri.
X
2

1
2
1
1
0
2
x
c
c
c
z
x - =
N
2
N
1
A
x
2
*
D
O x
1
*
M
2
M
1
X
1

X
2

1
2
1
1
0
2
x
c
c
c
z
x - =
N
2
N
1
A
x
2
*
D
O x
1
*
M
2
M
1
X
1

Hnh 5-1 Hnh 5-2

Trung hop mo rong: oi vi bi ton c n bien x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
vi m rng buoc.
+ Nghiem toi uu l toa do cua mot dinh hay nhieu dinh mien cho php. Mien
da dien l mot da dien loi (n-m) chieu.
+ Nghiem don tri neu c 1 dinh tiep xc vi mat cng muc tieu.
+ Nghiem da tri neu c k dinh ( k>1) tiep xc vi mat muc tieu, tao thnh 1
don hnh (k-1) chieu. l co so cua phuong php don hnh.
V d: Bi ton phn b din tch cy trng
Gia su c khu tui vi dien tch 1800 ha duoc quy hoach gieo trong 2 nhm cay:
- Nhm A: e gieo trong 1 ha loai cay trong ny can den 3 ha dien tch dat (tren
moi ha c 1/3 dien tch duoc gieo trong v dat trong chiem 2/3 dien tch). Gi tri tien
thu duoc tren moi ha gieo trong l 300USD/ha. Dien tch ln nhat gieo trong loai cay
ny l 400 ha.
- Nhm B: e gieo trong 1 ha loai cay ny can den 2 ha dien tch dat (tren moi
ha c 1/2 dien tch duoc gieo trong v dat trong chiem 1/2 dien tch). Gi tri tien thu
duoc tren moi ha gieo trong l 500USD/ha. Dien tch ln nhat l 600 ha.
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Hy xc dinh dien tch gieo trong hai loai cay tren de loi ch mang lai dat gi tri
ln nhat.
Goi x
A
dien tch gieo trong nhm A v x
B
dien tch gieo trong nhm B. Goi Z l
tong loi ch hng nam cua hai loai cay trong, ta c hm muc tieu can cuc dai l v cc
rng buoc nhu sau:
A B
A
B
A B
A B
Maximize Z 300x 500x
x 400
x 600
3x 2x 1800
x 0 x 0
= +
+

Hnh 5-3
Bang phuong php hnh hoc (xem hnh 5-3) c the tm duoc nghiem toi uu khi
x
A
= 200 ha v x
B
= 600 ha. Gi tri hm muc tieu Z
max
= 300200+500600 = 360.000 $.
5.4.4.2. Ph- ng php n hnh
Phuong php don hnh l phuong php co ban nhat khi giai cc bi ton quy
hoach tuyen tnh. Phuong php do G.B. Dantzig dua ra nam 1948.
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Noi dung cua phuong php nhu sau: Tm dinh toi uu cua da dien cc nghiem cho
php bang phuong php lan luot thu cc dinh cua da dien. e viec thu khong phai m
mam, ngui ta dua ra thuat ton di t nghiem xau den nghiem tot hon tc l di dan den
nghiem toi uu.
Giai bi ton Quy hoach tuyen tnh theo phuong php don hnh duoc tien hnh
bang cch tnh thu dan hoac bang bang goi l bang don hnh. Dui day s trnh by
cch giai bi ton quy hoach tuyen tnh bang cch lap bang don hnh.
1. Bng n hnh
Gia su c bi ton QHTT c hm muc tieu dang chnh tac (5-43) Dang tm
min (Bi ton tm max c the dua ve dang tm min nhu d trnh by o tren). Rng buoc
cua bi ton viet dui dang tong qut cho m phuong trnh rng buoc.

1 1 2 2 i i n n
Z c x c x ... c x ... c x min = + + + + + ( 5-43)
Vi rng buoc:

11 1 12 2 1i i 1n n 1
21 1 22 2 2i i 2n n 2
j1 1 j2 2 ji i jn n j
a x a x .. a x .... a x b
a x a x ... a x .... a x b
.................................................................
a x a x ... a x .... a x b
...............................
+ + + + + =
+ + + + + =
+ + + + + =
m1 1 m2 2 mi mn n m
.....................................
a x a x ... a ... a x b
+ + + + + =
(5-44)
Hoac viet gon dui dang:
g (X) a x a x ... a x = b
j j1 1 j2 2 jn n j
= + + + : j 1, m = (5- 45)
Gia su c phuong n co so chap nhan duoc X vi cc bien co so tuong ng l x
1
,
x
2
,..., x
j
,..., x
m
(k hieu tong qut l x
j
, j = 1, 2,..., m). Cc thong tin ve mot buc lap
don hnh thuc hien doi vi phuong n chap nhan duoc ghi trong bang (5-2), goi l bang
don hnh tuong ng vi phuong n co so chap nhan duoc X.
Cc cot v hng trong bang (5-2):
- Cot dau tien ghi he so c
j
cua hm muc tieu doi vi cc bien co so tuong ng
- Cot 2: ghi ten cc bien co so
- Cot 3: Gi tri cua cc bien co so duoc xc dinh tren co so giai he m phuong
trnh (5-45) vi cc bien tu do lay bang khong.
- Cot cuoi cng ghi he so q tnh theo cong thc (5-48) (xem o muc sau).
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- Dng tren cng ghi gi tri cc he so cua hm muc tieu c
i
vi i =1, 2,..., n. Gi
tri ny doi vi cc bien lay bang khong neu bien d vang mat trong hm muc tieu.
- Dng th 2: ghi ten cc bien x
i
vi i =1, 2,..., n
- Cc o tuong ng t cot 4 den cot 8 ghi he so cua cc so hang cua he phuong
trnh rng buoc (5-44). He so ny s bang khong neu phuong trnh rng buoc vang mat
bien tuong ng.
- Dng cuoi cng l dng uc luong cc phan tu tuong ng vi cc bien tnh theo
cong thc:
D
i
=
m
j ji i
j 1
c a c
=
-
vi i =1, 2,..., n (5-46)

Ghi ch: Cc gi tri c
j
lay o cot dau tien: c
i
lay o hng tren cng theo cot tuong
ng th i: a
ji
lay o cc o tuong ng vi cot i.
Bang don hnh lap cho phuong n chon dau tien duoc goi l phuong n xuat pht.
Bang 5-2: Bang don hnh doi vi bi ton tm min
K>L K?L KBL KCL KML KNL KOL KPL KQL
)
>
RRRRRR )
.
)
'
S T: )
U
VW'( ,*4
XY' @.Z' )H
T[
D.E ,1J )\A @.Z'
)H T[ ]
>
RRRRRRR ]
.
RRRRRR ]
'

S T:
q
U
)
>
K>L ]
>
]
^
>
A
>>
RRRRRRR A
>.
RRRR A
>'
q
>

RRRR

K?L RRRR RRRRR RRRR RRRRR RRRRR RRRR RRRRR RRRRR
)
U
KBL ]
U
]
U
^
A
U>
RRRRRRR A
U.
RRRRRR A
U'
q
U

RRRR KCL RRRR RRRR RRRRRR RRRRRR RRRRRR RRRR RRRR RRRRR
)
"
KML ]
"
]
"
^
A
">
RRRRRR A
".
RRRR A
"'
q
"

D

KNL D
>
RRRR D
.
RRRRR D
'

2. Gii bi ton n hnh dng bng
Vi bang don hnh duoc xay dung (bat dau t bang xuat pht) tien hnh cc buc
lap don hnh doi vi phuong n chap nhan duoc nhu sau.
1. Kiem tra tieu chun toi uu:
Neu cc phan tu cua dng uc luong l khong duong (D
i
0, vi moi i = 1, 2,..., n)
th phuong n co so chap nhan duoc dang xt l toi uu, thuat ton ket thc. ieu ny
c the dng ngay trong lan thu dau tien (bang xuat pht).
2. Kiem tra dieu kien hm muc tieu khong bi chan dui (vo nghiem):
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Neu c uc luong no d (D
i
> 0 vi i l bat ky) m cc phan tu trong bang don
hnh o cot ng vi n deu khong duong ( a
ji
0, vi j =1, 2,..., m) th hm muc tieu
cua bi ton khong bi chan dui. Thuat ton ket thc v vo nghiem.
Neu o 2 buc tren khong xay ra phai tm dng xoay v cot xoay de lap bang don
hnh mi.
3. Tm cot xoay
Cot xoay cua bien doi s l cot c gi tri uc luong ln nhat v khong am:
D
i0
= max (D
i
vi i = 1, 2,..., n) > 0 (5-47)
Cot tuong ng x
i0
goi l cot xoay, cc phan tu cua cot xoay l a
ji0
.
4. Tm dng xoay
Tnh gi tri q
j
:
q
j
=
j ji 0 ij
ij
x / a , neu a 0
, neu a 0
>
(5-48)
Dng xoay s l dng c gi tri q
j
nho nhat:
q
0
= min (q
j
) (5-49)
Phan tu giao diem cua dng xoay v cot xoay goi l phan tu xoay, k hieu l
j i
0 0
a

- at
o
k
ji
a l cc gi tri thuoc cot xoay (cot i
0
) cua bang don hnh dang xt (goi l
bang c), j =1, 2,..., m.
- at
0
k
ij
a l cc gi tri cua dng xoay (dng j
0
) cua bang don hnh dang xt (bang
c), i =1, 2,..., n.
5. Lap bang don hnh mi
Lap bang don hnh mi thuc chat l chuyen t phuong n co so chap nhan duoc
c sang phuong n co so chap nhan mi. Cch lm nhu sau:
i) Chon bien mi thay the cho bien co so thuoc dng xoay.
ii) Cc phan tu o vi tr dng xoay thuoc bang mi bang cc phan tu tuong ng o
bang c chia cho gi tri cua phan tu xoay:

k 1 k
j j i j i
0 0 oi
a a / a
+
=
0
vi j =1, 2,..., m (5-50)
k 1 k
j j i
oi
a a
+
0
, l gi tri cua phan tu mi v phan tu c thuoc dng xoay.
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iii) Cc phan tu o vi tr cot xoay cua bang mi deu bang khong, ngoai tr gi tri
phan tu o vi tr phan tu xoay bang 1.
iv) Gi tri cua cc phan tu cn lai duoc tnh t phan tu c theo cong thc:

o
k 1 k k k
ji ji ji ij i j 0 0
0
a a a a / a
+
= - (5-51)

o
k 1 k k k
i i ij i i j 0 0
0
a / a
+
D = D - D (5-52)
Trong d:
k 1
ji
a
+
- gi tri cua phan tu tai o (ij) cua bang mi:
k
ji
a - gi tri cua phan tu tai o (ij) cua bang c:
o
k
ji
a - gi tri phan tu o (ji
0
) thuoc hng th j (tuong ng vi o dang xt ij) nam
tren cot xoay i
0
cua bang c:
k
ij
0
a - gi tri phan tu o (ij
0
) thuoc cot th i cua phan tu dang xt, nam tren dng
xoay j
0
cua bang c:
k 1
i
+
D - gi tri uc luong cua bang mi tai cot th i dang xt:
k
i
D - gi tri uc luong cua bang c cot th i dang xt:
i 0
D - gi tri uc luong cua bang c cot ng vi cot xoay i
0
:
i j 0 0
a - gi tri cua phan tu xoay cua bang c.
Khi d chuyen sang bang don hnh vi co so mi viec dnh gi tm toi uu lai
duoc bat dau t buc dau tien cho den khi d r het cc bien cua bi ton.
3. V d minh ha
Giai bi ton QHTT c dang:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Z x 6x 32x x x 10x 100x min = - + + + + + (5-53)
Vi cc rng buoc dang phuong trnh tuyen tnh:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
i
x 0x 0x x 0x 6x 0x 9
3x x 4x 0x 0x 2x x 2
x 2x 0x 0x x 2x 0x 6
x 0: i 1, 2,..., 7
+ + + + + + =
+ - + + + + =
+ + + + + + =
(5-54)
Chon phuong n chap nhan duoc (phuong n xuat pht) vi cc bien co so l x
4
,
x
7
, x
5
. T he cc phuong trnh rng buoc (5-54) tm duoc phuong n chap nhan dau
tien X = (0, 0, 0, 9, 6, 0, 2). Cc thong tin ve mot buc lap don hnh thuc hien doi vi
phuong n chap nhan duoc ghi trong bang (5-3).
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Theo tieu chun (5-47) v (5-48) tm duoc cot (4) l cot xoay, dng (3) l dng
xoay, phan tu xoay c gi tri
0 0
j i
a 3 = (c dau ).
Trong bang (5-3) cc gi tri uc luong D (dng 5) cn ton tai cc gi tri duong
nen chua phai l phuong n toi uu. Ta phai lap bang don hnh mi.
Chon bien co so mi cho dng xoay l x
1
. Lap bang (5-4) tren co so bang don
hnh (5-3).
Tiep tuc doi chieu vi tieu chun (5-47) v (5-49) o bang don hnh mi (5-4) tm
duoc cot (5) l cot xoay, dng (3) l dng xoay, phan tu xoay c gi tri
j i
0 0
a = 1/3 (c
dau ).
Bang 5-3: Bang don hnh so 1 (bang xuat pht)
K>L K?L KBL KCL KML KNL KOL KPL KQL K>_L K>>L
> `N B? > > >_ >__ K>L S T: )
U
XY' @.Z'
)H T[
D.E ,1J
@.Z' )H T[
]
>
]
?
]
B
]
C
]
M
]
N
]
O
S T:
q
U
K?L > ]
C
Q > _ _ > _ N _ Q
KBL >__ ]
O
? B
a
> `C _ _ ? > ?bB
KCL > ]
M
N > ? _ _ > ? _ N
KML D

B_> >_P `CB? _ _ >QP _

Bang 5-4: Bang don hnh so 2
> `N B? > > >_ >__ K>L S T: )
U
XY' @.Z'
)H T[
D.E ,1J
@.Z' )H T[
]
>
]
?
]
B
]
C
]
M
]
N
]
O
S T: q
U
K?L > ]
C
?MbB _ `>bB CbB > _ >NbB `>bB c
KBL > ]
>
?bB > >bB
a
`CbB _ _ ?bB >bB ?
KCL > ]
M
>NbB _ MbB CbB _ > CbB `>bB >NbM
KML D

_ ?BbB
3
92 -

_ _ `PbB
3
301 -

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Bang 5- 5: Bang don hnh so 3
> `N B? > > >_ >__ K>L S T: )
U
XY' @.Z'
)H T[
D.E ,1J
@.Z' )H T[
]
>
]
?
]
B
]
C
]
M
]
N
]
O
S T: q
U
K?L > ]
C
Q > _ _ > _ N _
KBL `N ]
?
?
B
> `C _ _ ? >
KCL > ]
M
? `M _ P _ > `? `?
KML D

`?B _ _ _ _ `>P `>_P

Tuong tu bang c (5-3) trong bang don hnh mi (5-4) cc gi tri uc luong D
(dng 5) cn ton tai cc gi tri duong nen chua phai l phuong n toi uu. Ta phai lap
bang don hnh mi (bang 5-5). Viec lap bang (5-5) duoc tien hnh tuong tu nhu bang
(5-4). Nhung bang (5-4) bay gi l bang c cua bang (5-5).
Khi lap bang (5-5) d chon x
2
l bien co so mi the cho cho bien co so o dng
xoay cua bang (5-4).
Trong bang (5-5) tat ca cc gi tri uc luong D (dng 5) khong cn ton tai cc
gi tri duong. Boi vay, day l phuong n toi uu.
Nghiem toi uu l X
*
= (0, 2, 0, 9, 2, 0, 0), gi tri toi uu cua hm muc tieu l Z
*
= -1.

5.5. Quy hoch phi tuyn
5.5.1. Khi nim v quy hoach Ii
5.5.1.1. Tp li
Tap C R
n
duoc goi l loi neu x
1
C, x
2
Cth doan x
1
x
2
cng thuoc C, tc l C
cha tat ca cc diem c dang:
x = lx
1
+ (1-l) x
2
: 0 l 1 (5-55)
Hnh 5-4 minh hoa tap loi thoa mn bieu thc dang (5-55). Hnh 5-5 khong thoa
mn bieu thc dang (5-55) khong phai tap loi.
5.5.1.2. Hm li
a. nh ngha
Hm f(x) l hm loi tren tap loi C neu vi moi cap (x
1
, x
2
) thuoc C v moi l
thuoc [0,1], ta c:
f[lx
1
+ (1-l)x
2
] l f(x
1
)+ (1-l)f(x
2
) (5-56)
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C nghia l diem x = lx
1
+ (1-l)x
2
trong [x
1
, x
2
] th moi diem cua do thi f(x)
luon nam dui M
1
M
2
(hnh 5-6).
x
1
x
2
x
2
x
1

Hnh 5-4 Hnh 5-5

b. Cc tr ca hm li
Bat ky cuc tieu dia phuong no cua hm loi tren tap loi cng l cuc tieu tuyet doi
cua hm tren tap d.
Nhu vay, trong quy hoach loi th gi tri toi uu dia phuong cng l gi tri toi uu
ton the.
f(x)
x
x
1
x
2
x
M
1
M
2

x
L
l
X
*
,l
*

Hnh 5-6 Hnh 5-7

5.5.2. Bi ton quy hoach Ii tng qut
5.5.2.1. Pht biu bi ton
Tm X = (x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
F(X) = F(x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
) min (5-57)
w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n

Vi rng buoc X C: g
j
(X) 0 vi j =1, 2,..., m (5-58)
Trong d C l tap loi: F, g l cc hm loi tren C.
5.5.2.2. iu kin ti - u
a. Min nghim chp nhn c
D = { x C: g
j
(X) 0 } j =1, 2,..., m
b. im yn nga (hnh 5-7)
Hm Lagrange L(X,l) = F(X) +
m
j j
j 1
g (X)
=
l
(5-59)
vi vc to l = (l
1
, l
2
,..., l
m
)
iem yen ngua cua hm L(X,l) l diem ( x*, l*)
vi X D: l 0 sao cho (X,l*) L(X*,l*) L(X*,l) (5-60)

c. iu kin cn v ca ti u
C hai dinh l de nhan biet X
*
l gi tri toi uu.
nh l 1:
iem X
*
l toi uu khi v chi khi F
z
(X
*
) = F(X
*
), Z 0 vi moi Z D(X
*
).
Nghia l, neu di t X
*
theo moi hung m F(X) deu tang th hm F(X) dat gi tri min
tai X
*
.
F(X
*
), Z l dao hm theo hung Z cua hm F(X) tai diem X
*
.
nh l 2 (nh l Kuhn - Tucker):
Gia su bi ton quy hoach loi thoa mn dieu kien Slater:
Vi moi X
0
thuoc C thoa mn rng buoc g
j
(X) < 0 vi j =1, 2, ..., m)
ieu kien can v du de X
*
tro thnh nghiem toi uu l ton tai mot vc to m chieu,
khong am:
l = (l
1
, l
2
,..., l
m
) sao cho cap (X
*
, l
*
) l diem yen ngua cua hm Lagrange L(X, l
*
).
5.5.2.3. Khi nim v quy hoch lm
Hm F(X) l hm lm neu hm - F(X) l hm loi.
Hm F(X) l lm khi:
F[lx
1
+ (1-l)x
2
] l F(x
1
)+ (1-l)F(x
2
) (5-61)
Vi moi x
1
, x
2
R
n
v moi l nam trong khoang 0 l 1
w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n
5.5.3. Bi ton quy hoach phi tuyn tng qut
Pht biu bi ton
Bi ton quy hoach phi tuyen tong qut c dang: Tm gi tri toi uu (max hoac
min) cua hm muc tieu
F(X) min (5-62)
vi rng buoc :
g
j
(X) b
j
: j=1, 2,..., m (5-63)
Trong d: X = (x
1
, x
2
, ..., x
n
) R
n
: cc hm F(X) v g
j
(X) l phi tuyen.
Tap cc nghiem chap nhan duoc:
D = {XR
n
: g
j
(X) b
j
: j =1, 2,..., m} (5-64)
Ch :
oi vi bi ton tm cuc dai dang: F(X) max c the dua ve dang tm cuc tieu
bang cch tm cuc tieu cua hm -F(X), tc l:
max F(X) = min (-F(X))
Tuong tu vay, neu rng buoc c dang g
j
(X) b
j
: j=1, 2,..., m c the dua ve dang:
g
j
(X) - b
j
: j=1, 2,..., m
5.5.4. Ti uu cua bi ton phi tuyn tng qut
Toi uu ton bo (toi uu tuyet doi):
max: F(X
*
) F(X): X D (5-65)
min: F(X
*
) F(X): X D
Toi uu dia phuong (toi uu tuong doi):
Neu ton tai lan can V cua X
*
sao cho:
max: F(X
*
) F(X): X D V (5-66)
min: F(X
*
) F(X): X D V
X
*

l nghiem toi uu: F(X
*
) l gi tri toi uu cua hm muc tieu F(X).
Tren hnh 5-8 (doi vi hm 1 bien cc diem A, C l cuc tieu dia phuong v A l
cuc tieu tuyet doi: diem B v D l cuc dai dia phuong vi D l cuc dai tuyet doi.
Trong quy hoach loi th toi uu dia phuong cng l toi uu ton the. Trong quy
hoach phi tuyen tong qut th toi uu ton the cng l toi uu dia phuong, nhung dieu
nguoc lai khong dng.
w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n

A
B
C
D
f(x)
x

Hnh 5-8

Trong quy hoach tuyen tnh hm muc tieu dat gi tri toi uu tai diem cuc bien cua
mien D. Trong quy hoach phi tuyen, hm muc tieu c the dat gi tri toi uu tai trong
hoac tren bien cua D v c the ton tai mot gi tri toi uu dia phuong.
Khong c phuong php chung no c hieu qua de giai bi ton quy hoach phi
tuyen. Cc phuong php c the chia lm 2 nhm:
- Cc phuong php gradient c dng dao hm.
- Cc phuong php truc tiep khong dng dao hm.

5.5.5. Bi ton quy hoach phi tuyn khng c rng buc
5.5.5.1. Bi ton
F(X)=F(x
1
, x
2
, x
3
, .., x
i
, .. ,x
n
) min (5-67)
Trong d: X = (x
1
, x
2
, ..., x
n
) E
n

5.5.5.2. iu kin cn v ca ti - u a phng
a. iu kin cn
Nghiem toi uu phai l nhng diem m:
-
x 0
F(X ) (cc diem dng) (5-68)
- Hm F(X
0
) kha thi tai X
0

Trong d :
x 0
F(X ) l cc dao hm rieng cap 1, tc l:

x 0
F(X ) =
1
2
n
F(X)
x
F(X)
x
......
.......
F(X)
x
(5-69)
w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n
b. iu kin
Nhng diem dng phai thoa mn dieu kien du: iem dng l cuc tri neu ma tran
Hessein c xc dinh duong doi vi bi ton cuc tieu v xc dinh am doi vi bi ton
cuc dai. Ma tran Hessein c dang:
2
n
x
F
2
..........
i
x
n
x
F
2
......
2
x
n
x
F
2
1
x
n
x
F
2
. . . . . . . . . . . .
n
x
j
x
F
2
........
i
x
j
x
F
2
.......
2
x
j
x
F
2
1
x
j
x
F
2
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
n
x
2
x
F
2
.........
i
x
2
x
F
2
..........
2
2
x
F
2
1
x
2
x
F
2
n
x
1
x
F
2
.........
i
x
1
x
F
2
.........
2
x
1
x
F
2
2
1
x
F
2
)) ( (

=
o
X F H (5-70)
Ma tran Hessein l ma tran doi xng c dang tong qut A = (a
ij
) cap n, c xc
dinh duong khi v chi khi dinh thc cap n v moi dinh thc ng vi phan tu cho chnh
deu duong. Tc l:

11 1n
11 12
n 2 1 11
21 22
n1 nn
a .............a
a a
...................... 0,...., 0: a 0
a a
a ............a
D > D = > D = > (5-71)
V du: Tm min F(X) = (x
1
-2)
2
+ (x
2
- 1)
2

Ta c:

F F
2(x1 2): 2(x2 1)
x1 x2

= - = -

Cc diem dng tai
F F
0: 0
x1 x2

= =

khi
1
0 0
2
x 2: x 1 = =

Tnh duoc:
2 2 2
2 2
1 2 1 2
F F F
0: 2: 2
x x x x

= = =

Vay ma tran Hessein H l:
w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n

2 0
0 2

Ma tran con chnh th nhat bang 2 > 0: ma tran chnh th hai bang 4> 0. V vay
ma tran Hessein l xc dinh duong v hm F(X) c cuc tieu tai X
0
= (2,1).
5.5.6. Gii bi ton ti uu phi tuyn khng rng buc bng phuong
php su dng dao hm
C hai loai phuong php giai bi ton toi uu phi tuyen:
- Phuong php dng dao hm: Phuong php gradient: phuong php hung doc
nhat: phuong php Newton v.v...
- Phuong php khong dng dao hm: Phuong php lap truc tiep: phuong php
Pwell: phuong php Nelder v Mead v.v...
5.5.6.1. Ph- ng php gradient
Phuong php gradient l phuong php duoc dng pho bien de tm cuc tieu cua
hm. Phuong php luon hoi tu neu hm c nghiem toi uu. Theo phuong php ny php
lap duoc tnh theo cong thc:
X
(k+1)
= X
(k)
- l
(k)
F(X
(k)
) (5-72)
Trong d:
k 0: buc lap th k.
l
(k)
> 0: l he so xc dinh do di cua buc di theo hung gradient. C the chon
l = const cho ca qu trnh lap, hoac c the chon gi tri toi uu cua l theo tng buc
lap theo phuong php toi uu 1 tham so.
F(X
(k
): hung

nguoc lai cua gradient tai X
(k)
.
Ban dau ta chon diem xuat pht X
0
ty . Neu dy X
k
khong hoi tu ta lay l nho
hon. Khi l du nho th X
k
s hoi tu ve X
*
.
V du: Tm min cua f(x) = x
2
+3
Giai:
f(x) = 2x. Chon x
(0)
=1 2 x
(0)
= 2 0
x
(1)
= x
(0)
- lf(x
(0)
) = 1 - 2l: l > 0 .
f(x
(1)
) =2 x
(1)
= 2(1 - 2l):
w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n
Neu chon l 1/2 th f(x
(1)
) 0
V x
(2)
= (1 - 2l) - 2l(1 - 2l) = (1 - 2l)
2

Tiep tuc s duoc o php lap th k c
x
(k)
= (1 - 2l)
k

Nhu vay, neu 0 < l< 1 th x
(k)
0 khi k +
iem x
*

= 0 l diem cuc tieu v f(x
*
) = 3.
5.5.6.2. Ph- ng php h- ng dc nht
Phuong php hung doc nhat duoc thuc hien theo trnh tu sau:
Chon diem xuat pht: tnh F(X
(k)
):
( k )
F(X .
Tnh vc to don vi theo hung F(X
(k)
):
S
(k)
=
(k)
(k)
F(X )
F(X

at X
(k)
= X
(k)
- l
k
S
(k)

Dng toi uu ho 1 tham so:
F(X
(k+1)
) = F(l
k
) min t d tm duoc gi tri toi uu
*
k
l .
Chon diem mi: X
(k+1)
= X
(k)
-
*
k
l S
(k)
.
Tiep tuc thuc hien cc php lap tiep theo.
V du: Tm min cua hm Rosenbrock c dang
F(X) = 100(x
2
- x
1
2
)
2

Gii:
Chon diem xuat pht X
(k)
= (-0,5: 0,5)
Tnh F(X
(k)
) v
( k )
F(X ) :

F F
47: 50
x1 x2

= =

( k )
F(X ) =
2 2
47 50 + = 68,6
w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n

Tnh vc to don vi theo hung F(X
(k)
):
S
(k)
=
(k)
(k)
F(X )
F(X
=
1 47
68, 6 50

= (0,658: 0,729)
T

Vc to S
(k)
vuong gc vi dung cng muc tieu cua F(X) tai X
(k)
= (-0,5: 0,5)
at X
(k)
= X
(k)
- l
k
S
(k)

hay : X
(k0
=
k
0, 5 47
0, 5 50
-
- l

Dng toi uu ho 1 tham so:
F(X
(k+1)
) = F(l
k
) =100[0,50.729l
k
(0,5+0,685l
k
)
2
]+(1,5+0,685l
k
) min t d
tm duoc gi tri toi uu
*
k
l = 0,164
Chon diem mi: thay l =
*
k
l =0,164 vo cong thc X
(k+1)
= X
(k)
-
*
k
l S
(k)
.
X
(k+1)
=
0, 5 47
0,164
0, 5 50
-
-

F(X
(k)
) = 2,6
Tiep tuc tnh S
(k+1)
, cuoi cng qu trnh tnh hoi tu tai X
*
= (1:1) v gi tri toi uu
cua hm F(X
*
) = 0.
Cng c the dng
k
l = const cho ca qu trnh.
5.5.6.3. Ph- ng php Newton
Phuong php Newton duoc su dung giai phuong trnh c nghiem gan dng, dong
thi cng l phuong php ng dung de giai cc bi ton toi uu phi tuyen.
1. Ph ng php Newton gii ph ng trnh c nghim gn ng
Phuong php lap Newton-Raphson l mot phuong php kh hieu qua khi phai
giai cc phuong trnh c nghiem gan dng, v do d duoc p dung kh rong ri doi vi
cc bi ton thuoc he thong nguon nuc. Ta bat dau t bi ton c mot bien so.
a. Bi ton mt chiu
Gia su phai tm nghiem xap xi cua hm so f(x) = 0. Neu hm f(x) c dao hm
khc khong, tc l f (x) 0 vi "x. Khi d xap xi nghiem o php lap n bat ky c
dang:

f(x )
n
x x
n
n 1
f (x )
n
= -
+

(5-73)
w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n
Trong d: chi so n chi lan lap th n. Php lap s ket thc o lan lap th n+1 neu
thoa mn bieu thc c dang:
x x
n 1 n
- e
+
(5-74)
v gi tri x
n 1 +
l nghiem cua phuong trnh.
b. Bi ton nhiu chiu
Gia su can tm nghiem xap xi cua he phuong trnh vi n phuong trnh tuong ng
vi n bien so chua biet:
f
i
(X) 0 = vi i = 1, n (5-75)
Hoac dui dang vc to F(X) = 0.
Trong d X l vc to X = (x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
)
Nghiem gan dng cua he phuong trnh tren tai lan lap th n l:
X X J(X ) F(X )
n n 1 n 1
1
n 1
= -
- -
-
-
(5-76)
Trong d F(X
n-1
) l gi tri cua hm so tuong ng vi gi tri cua X tai lan lap th
n-1 l X
n-1
: X
n
l ga tri gan dng cua hm so tai lan lap dang xt n: J(X
n-1
) l ma
tran Jacobien tai X
n-1
:

1 1 1
1 2 n
F F F
...
x x x

J(Xn-1) =
2 2 2
1 2 n
F F F
...
x x x
...........................

(5-77)

n n n
1 2 n
F F F
...
x x x

X=X
n-1

Phuong php lap Newton - Raphon duoc dng nhieu trong phuong php gia cc
phuong trnh vi phan. Trong linh vuc nguon nuc duoc ng dung giai cc bi ton ve
chuyen dong cua nuc ngam.
2. Ph ng php Newton gii bi ton ti u phi tuyn
Phuong php ny duoc tien hnh theo cc buc sau:
- Chon diem xuat pht: gi tri ban dau cua X
(k)
(diem xuat pht k =0).
- Tnh gi tri dao hm cap 1 tai vi tr xuat pht:
w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n

( k )
x
F(X ) =
1
2
n
F(X)
x
F(X)
x
......
.......
F(X)
x
(5-78)
- Tnh ma tran Hesein theo gi tri ban dau:

2 2
1 2 1 n
( k)
2 2
n 1 n n
F F
x x x x
H(F(X ))
F F
x x x x

=

LL
LLLLLLLL
LL
(5-79)
- Chon gi tri mi: X
(k+1)
=X
(k)
+
*
k
l H(F(X
(k)
).
( k )
x
F(X ) = X
(k)
+
*
k
l .S
(k)
.
V tiep tuc vi cc php lap tiep theo cho den khi
*
k
l du nho s duoc nghiem
toi uu.
V d:
Tm (x
1
, x
2
) sao cho cuc tieu hm muc tieu:
F(X) =
2 1
2 1
1 1
4
x x
x x + + + min (5-80)
Gii:
1. Chon diem xuat pht: gi tri ban dau cua X
(0)
= (1,13: 3,56).
2. Tnh gi tri dao hm cap 1 tai vi tr xuat pht:

( 0)
x
F(X ) =
2
1
2
2
1
4
x
1
1
x
-
-
=
3, 21
0, 92

Tuong ng vi gi tri xuat pht duoc chon X
(0)
= (1,13: 3,56).
3. Tnh ma tran Hesein theo gi tri ban dau:
w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n

3
1 ( 0)
3
2
2
0
x
H(F(X ))
2
0
x

=

=
1, 41 0
0 0, 04

Gi tri:
1 ( 0)
0, 71 0
H (F(X ))
0 25
-

=

4. Chon gi tri mi: X
(1)
=X
(0)
+
*
k
l H
-1
(F(X
(0)
).
( 0)
x
F(X )
X
(1)
=
1, 13
3, 56
-
k
l

25 0
0 71 , 2 4, 21
0, 92

=
1,13
3, 56

-
k
l
2, 28
23

*
k
l = 0,112
Chon duoc bien mi l: X
(1)
=
1,13
3, 56

- 0,112
2, 28
23

=
0, 88
0, 98

Sau khi chon bien mi X
(1)
lap tiep duoc ket qua toi uu X
*
= (0,5:1). Phuong php
ket thc o buc th 2. Neu p dung phuong php hung doc nhat phai mat 20 buc
mi dat diem toi uu.

5.5.7. Gii bi ton ti uu phi tuyn khng rng buc bng phuong php
khng dng dao hm
Cc bi ton dang co dien duoc giai bang cch tm dao hm v xc dinh cc
diem dng chi ph hop vi nhng dang bi ton c the hm ho duoc. Ngoi ra can
chng minh su ton tai nghiem v cc dao hm tuong ng.
Trong cc bi ton k thuat nhng dieu kien ny rat kh thoa mn, boi vay ngui
ta tm nghiem cua bi ton bang cc phuong php d tm toi uu. Cc phuong php loai
ny p dung cho ca bi ton c rng buoc v khong rng buoc.
Phuong php pho bien duoc p dung l phuong php d tm truc tiep theo buc.
Trong ti lieu ny s trnh by mot so phuong php thung duoc p dung trong linh
vuc pht trien nguon nuc.
5.5.7.1. Ph- ng php d tm theo h- ng ca Hooke-Jeeves
Phuong php Hooke - Jeeves c the goi l phuong php di chuyen theo hung c
the den diem cuc tri. Su d tm theo hung c the duoc thuc hien theo tng toa do cua
vc to X.
1. Bi ton: Tm gi tri cua vc to X = (x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
) sao cho:
F(X) min vi X R
n

w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n

2. Cch gii
Giai bi ton tren theo cc buc thuc hien nhu sau:
(1) Lua chon toa do ban dau lm diem xuat pht:

( )
0 1 0 0
0 2 n
x x , x , ..., x = (5-81)
Tuong ng ta c:

( ) ( )
0 1 0 0
0 2 n
F x F x , x , ..., x = (5-82)
(2) Chon mot bien bat ky trong vc to X v d tm hung c the cho bien ay. Ta
bat dau bien dau tien
1
x , cc bien khc duoc gi nguyen gi tri ban dau. Gia su ta tang
gi tri cua
1
x mot gi tri Dx
1
.
Ta c:
1 0
1 1 1
x x x = + D (5-83)
(3) Tnh gi tri
0 0 0
1 1 1 2 n
F F(x x , x ..., x ) = + D
v tnh
0
1 1
F F F(X ) D = - (5-84)
(4) Kiem tra dieu kien:
- Neu
1
F 0 D < chng to hung di chuyen l dng ta co dinh diem d vi
1
x v
d sang bien khc.
Tc l lay
1 0
1 1 1
x x x = + D (5-85)
- Neu
1
F 0 D hung d ny khong ve duoc min (khong dat). Ta phai d theo
hung nguoc lai (li) lay:
1 0
1 1 1
x x x = - D
Tiep tuc tnh
0 0 0
1 1 1 2 n
F F(x x , x ..., x ) = - D v
0
1 1
F F F(X ) D = -
Neu
1
F 0
D < , chng to hung d tm dng, ta co dinh diem d v d tm cho

bien tiep theo, tc l:

1 0
1 1 1
x x x = - D (5-86)
Neu
1
F 0
D , hung d tm khong dat, tc l roi vo tnh trang "tien thoi lung

nan". Trong trung hop ny ta gi nguyen bien x
1
, tc l "khong tien cng khong li":

1 0
1 1
x x = (5-87)
v d sang bien tiep theo.
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Bt du
(1) Chon dim ban
du X
0
. Tinh F
0
(X
0
)

(2) Tinh
) ,....., 2 , 1 ; (
1
n k x F
k
=

k x x k
i
x x
i k k
= = = i vi i vi
0 1
;

0 f F D

I =+1
i
x
0
i
x
1
i
x - =
x
Tnh F1 v DF1

DF1< 0
Fk = F
1
; DF
G
= F
k
F
0

Sai
ng
ng
Sai
ng
Sai
i=1

i i i
x x x D + =
0 1
0 1
F F F - = D

> N
DF
G
< 0
|DF
G
|< e
2 /
i
x
i
x D =
1
i
x
0
i
x =
0
i
x
1
i
x =
Sai
Sai
kt thc

Hnh 5-9: So d tnh d tm toi uu theo phuong php Hooke-Jeeves

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(5) D tm theo hung c the cua bien th hai: Trong khi bien th nhat d duoc
co dinh theo mot trong cc bieu thc (5-85)(5-87). Gia su chon mot gia luong
2
x D
cho bien th hai ta c:
Chon
1 0
2 2 2
x x x = + D v tnh
1 0 0 0
2 1 2 2 3 n
F F(x , x x , x , x ) ... = + D
(6) Tnh:
2 2 1
F F F D = -
Neu DF
2
< 0. Ta c hung di chuyen dat yeu cau, ta co dinh toa do
2
x v d tm
cho bien tiep theo, tc l chon:
1 0
2 2 2
x x x = + D (5-88)
DF
2
0. Hung d tm khong dat phai li.
Ta chon
1 0
2 2 2
x x x = D - v tnh
1 0 0 0
2 1 2 2 3 n
F F(x , x x , x , x ) ... = D -
Tnh
'
2 2 1
F F F D = -
- Neu
2
F 0
D < . Hung d tm dat yeu cau v co dinh diem d chon:

1 0
2 2 2
x x x = - D (5-89)
Tiep tuc d tm cho bien tiep theo.
- Trong trung hop nguoc lai, tuong tu nhu doi vi bien th nhat, ta gi gi tri
cua bien th hai, tc l:

1 0
2 2
x x = (5-90)
v chuyen sang d tm cho bien sau.
(7) Tiep tuc lm nhu cc buc tren dy cho den cuoi cng l x
n
. Ta ket thc lan
lap th nhat.
(8) Sau khi d ket thc lan lap th nhat, tnh gi tri F(X
1
), vi:

1 1 1 1
1 2 n
X (x , x ,..., x ) = (5-91)
(9) Kiem tra dieu kien :

1 0
F F(X ) F(X ) D = - < 0 (5-92)
Neu (5-92) khong thoa mn, hung d tm khong thoa mn, chuyen sang
buc (10).
Neu (5-92) thoa mn, su d tm theo hung ny (xu the chung doi vi tat ca
cc tham bien) dat yeu cau. Kiem tra them dieu kien:
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Neu F D e (5-93)
Trong d e l so duong cho truc tuy (sai so cua ket qua d tm diem cuc tri)
- Neu (5-93) thoa mn, ket thc cong viec d tm v nghiem toi uu cua bi ton l:

8 * *
1 2 n
..., X (x , x x ) = (5-94)
- Neu F D > e, c nghia l hung di chuyen l dng nhung chua den diem cuc
tieu vi sai so cho truc e.
Ta tiep tuc d tm tiep, nhung toa do ban dau cho lan d tm tiep theo l diem ket
thc doi vi lan d tm truc, tc l: X
0
= X
1
, dong thi buc d tm duoc chon nhu lan
d tm truc d, tc l:
lay
2 1
i i
x x D = D i 1, n =
(10) Trong trung hop DF 0, chng to hung d tm khong dat do d vuot qu
diem c gi tri min. Kiem tra dieu kien:

k
i 1
x D e vi moi i (5-95)
vi
1
e l sai so cho truc doi vi cc Dx
i
vi moi i.
Neu (5-95) thoa mn, ket thc d tm v nghiem cua bi ton.
Trong trung hop nguoc lai can chia nho buc d tm bang cch chon :

2 1
i i
1
x x
2
D = D
v tiep tuc quay lai t buc dau tien, cho den khi dat duoc cc dieu kien (5-93) v (5-95).
5.5.7.2. Ph- ng php d tm theo mu
1. Bi ton:
Tm gi tri cua vc to X = (x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
) sao cho:
F(X) min vi X R
n

2. Cch gii:
Giai bi ton tren theo cc buc thuc hien cho buc th k (bat dau t k =0):
Cng on I: Tm tham d buc 1
uoc chia thnh cc buc nho nhu sau:
Buc 1: Lua chon toa do ban dau lm diem xuat pht:
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(k) (k) ( k) (k)
1 2 n
X (x , x ,..., x ) = (5-96)
(Neu bat dau t diem xuat pht k =0 th toa dau l:
(0) (0) (0) (0)
1 2 n
X (x , x ,..., x ) = )
Tuong ng ta c:

(k) (k) ( k) (k)
1 2 n
F(X ) F(x , x , ..., x ) = (5-97)
Buc 2: Chon mot bien bat ky trong vc to X v d tm hung c the cho bien ay. Ta
bat dau bien dau tien
1
x , cc bien khc duoc gi nguyen gi tri ban dau. Gia su ta tang
gi tri cua
1
x mot gi tri
1
x D .
Ta c:
(k 1) (k)
1 1 1
x x x
+
+ = D (5-98)
Buc 3: Tnh gi tri
(k) (k) (k)
1 1 1 2 n
F F(x x , x ..., x ) = + D
v tnh
( k)
1 1
F F F(X ) D = - (5-99)
Buc 4: Kiem tra dieu kien:
- Neu
1
F 0 D < chng to hung di chuyen l dng ta co dinh diem d vi
1
x v d
sang bien khc.
Tc l lay
(k 1) (k)
1 1 1
x x x
+
+ = D (5-100)
- Neu
1
F 0 D hung d ny khong ve duoc min (khong dat). Ta phai d theo
(k 1) (k)
1 1 1
x x x
+
- = D
Tiep tuc tnh
(k) (k) (k)
1 1 1 2 n
F F(x x , x ..., x ) = + D v
' ( k)
1 1
F F F(X ) D = -
Neu
'
1
F 0 D < , chng to hung d tm dng, ta co dinh diem d v d tm cho

(k+1) (k)
1 1 1
x x x = - D (5-101)
Neu
'
1
F 0 D , hung d tm khong dat, tc l roi vo tnh trang "tien thoi lung
nan". Trong trung hop ny ta gi nguyen bien x
1

(k+1) (k)
1 1
x x = (5-102)
Buc 5: D tm theo hung c the cua bien th hai: Trong khi bien th nhat d duoc
2
x D
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Chon
(k+1) (k)
2 2 2
x x x + = D v tnh
(k 1) (k) (k) (k)
2 1 2 2 3 n
F F(x , x x , x ..., x )
+
= + D
Buc 6: Tnh:

2 2 1
F F F D = -
Neu DF
2
< 0. Ta c hung di chuyen dat yeu cau, ta co dinh toa do
2
x v d tm
cho bien tiep theo, tc l chon

(k 1) (k)
2 2 2
x x x
+
= + D (5-103)
DF
2
0. Hung d tm khong dat phai li.
Ta chon
(k 1) (k)
2 2 2
x x x
+
= - D v tnh
(k 1) (k) (k) ( k)
2 1 2 2 3 n
F F(x , x x , x ..., x )
+
= - D
Tnh
'
2 2 1
F F F D = -
- Neu
'
2
F 0 D < . Hung d tm dat yeu cau v co dinh diem d v chon:

(k 1) (k)
2 2 2
x x x
+
= - D (5-104)
V tiep tuc d tm cho bien tiep theo.

(k 1) (k)
2 2
x x
+
= (5-105)
Buc 7: Tiep tuc lm nhu cc buc tren cho den bien cuoi cng l x
n
. Ta ket thc lan
lap th nhat.
Nhu vay trong d tm buc I, tai moi buc dich chuyen theo bien doc lap, gi tri
hm muc tieu duoc so snh vi gi tri cua n tai diem truc. Neu hm muc tieu duoc
cai thien tai moi buc no d th gi tri c duoc thay the bang gi tri mi trong nhng
so snh sau d. Neu hm muc tieu khong duoc cai thien th gi nguyen gi tri c.
Cng on II: Tm theo mau
Sau khi d ket thc lan lap o cong doan I, ta xc dinh duoc gi tri:

( k 1) (k 1) (k 1) (k 1)
1 2 n
X (x , x , ..., x )
+ + + +
= (5-106)
o buc tm theo mau ta lay:

( k 2) (k 1) (b)
2
X mX X
+ +
= - X
(k+2)
= mX
(k+1)
- X
(b)
(5-107)
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Tc l:
x
i
(k+2)
= m x
i
(k+1)
- x
i
(b)
(5-108)
D theo mau s c toa do mi l:

( k 2) (k 2) (k 2) (k 2)
1 2 n
X (x , x , ..., x )
+ + + +
= (5-109)
Tnh hm muc tieu:
( k 2) (k 2) (k 2) (k 2)
1 2 n
F(X ) F(x , x ,..., x )
+ + + +
=
Trong d:
x
i
(b)
- diem co so o lan lap dau X
(b)
= X
(k)
:
m - so bien d tm can thiet. Th du vi F(x
1
, x
2
) th m=2.
Buc tham d theo mau chi de xc dinh toa do mi cho tham d buc 2. Viec ket
luan tham d theo mau c thnh cong hay khong chi duoc ket luan sau khi thuc hien
tham d buc 2.
Cng on III: Tham d buc 2
Buc 1: Tham d o buc 2 duoc thuc hien theo cc buc tuong tu nhu tham d o buc
1, diem xuat pht l diem tham d theo mau X
k+2
. Tham d o buc 2 duoc thuc hien
den bien th n s duoc toa do mi:

( k 3) ( k 3) (k 3) (k 3)
1 2 n
X (x , x , ..., x )
+ + + +
= (5-110)
V tnh:
( k 3) (k 3) (k 3) (k 3)
1 2 n
F(X ) F(x , x , ..., x )
+ + + +
=
Buc 2: Kiem tra su thnh cong cua tham d theo mau:
- Neu F(X
(k+3)
) F(X
(k+1)
), th tham d theo mau duoc coi l ket qua. Khi d diem
co so l:
X
(b)
= X
(k+1)
(5-111)
Tiep tuc tham tham d theo mau (quay loai Cong doan II) nhung diem xuat pht
l X
(k+3)
, lay:
X
(k+4)
= mk
(k+3)
- X
(b)
= mX
(k+3)
- X
(k+1)

Tc l:
x
i
(k+4)
= m x
i
(k+3)
- x
i
(b)
= m x
i
(k+3)
- x
i
(k+1)
(5-112)
- Neu F(X
(k+3)
) > F(X
(k+1)
), th tham d theo mau duoc coi l that bai. Khi quay lai
tham d buc 1 (quay lai Cong doan I) sao cho xc dinh hung mi c hieu qua.
Nhung diem xuat pht bay gi l diem xuat pht cua tham d buc 2 cua lan that bai
ny (X
(k+2)
).
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Neu tiep tuc tham d o buc 1 lien tiep khong cho hung mi thnh cong s phai
giam gi tri cua Dx
i
cho den khi hoac cho hung mi c hieu qua, hoac khi a
i
nho hon
mot gi tri cho php.

Bt du
(1) Chon dim co s
X
b
= X
0
. Tinh F(X
b
)

(2) Tim kim thm
d buc 1 t dim
co s X
b
. Tinh F(X)

F(X) > F(X
b
)

(3) Chon dim co s mi
F(X
b
+ = F(X)
(4) Tim theo mu
(5) Tim kim thm d
buc

F(X) > F(X
b
) trong (3)

(6)
Gia s Dx
i
e
(7)
Gim s gia Dx
i

Kt
thc
Sai
ng
ng Sai
ng
Sai

Hnh 5-10a: So d thuat ton d tm truc tiep - D theo mau

Viec giam gi tri hm F(X) khi cc gi tri Dx
i
kh b chnh l nghiem cua
bi ton.
Thuat ton cua php lap ny duoc trnh by o so do hnh 5-10a.
Phuong php ny khc vi phuong php d tm Hooke-Jeeves o nhu sau: Sau khi
d tm theo bien so d hon thnh doi vi tat ca cc bien so, phuong php Hooke-
Jeeves s chon toa do d di chuyen ti lm toa do xuat pht cho lan d tm tiep theo,
cn phuong php d tm theo mau lai tm diem xuat pht mi de kiem tra hung di
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chuyen tiep theo. Vi cch lm ny, phuong php d tm theo mau s han che duoc
tnh trang khong thot ra duoc cc cuc tri dia phuong.
Ni chung cc phuong php khong dng dao hm khac phuc duoc cc trung
hop m hm muc tieu khong duoc trnh by dui dang hm tung, nhung c nhuoc
diem l de bi roi vo cc cuc tri dia phuong v do d khong tm duoc dng nghiem cua
bi ton. e khac phuc ngui ta thuc hien nhieu lan d tm vi toa do ban dau duoc
chon khc nhau.
3. V d minh ha
Bi ton:
Tm gi tri cua vc to X = (x
1
, x
2
) sao cho:
F(X) =
2 2
1 2
1
max
(x 1) x

+ +

Gii:
Giai bi ton tren theo cc buc thuc hien cho buc th k (bat dau t k =0):
Cong doan I: Tm tham d buc 1
Buc 1: Lua chon toa do ban dau lm diem xuat pht:

0
X (2, 0:2,8) = Chon X (0, 6:0, 84) D =
Tnh:
0
F(X ) 0, 059 =
Buc 2: Chon mot bien bat ky trong vc to X v d tm hung c the cho bien ay. Ta
bat dau bien dau tien x
1
. Gia su ta tang gi tri Dx
1
.
- Ta c :
(1) (0)
1 1 1
x x x = + D = 2,0 +0,6 = 2,6
- Tnh gi tri
(0) (0)
1 1 1 2
F F(x x , x ) = + D = F(2, 6 , 2, 8) = 0,048 <
0
F(X ) 0, 059 =
Hung di chuyen khong dat.
lay:
(1) (0)
1 1 1
x x x = - D = 2,0 - 0,60 = 1,4
- Tnh gi tri
(0) (0)
1 1 1 2
F F(x x , x ) = - D = F(1, 4 , 2, 8) = 0,073 >
0
F(X ) 0, 059 =
Hung di chuyen dat yeu cau.
Buc 3: D sang bien th 2:
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- Ta c :
(1) (0)
2 2 2
x x x = + D = 2,8 +0,84 = 3,64
- Tnh gi tri
(1) (0)
1 1 2 2
F F(x :x x ) = + D = F(1, 4 :3, 64)= 0,052 <
0
F(X ) 0, 059 =
lay:
(1) (0)
2 2 2
x x x = - D = 2,8 - 0,84 = 1,96
- Tnh gi tri
(0) (1)
1 2 2 1
F F(x x , x ) = - D = F(1, 4 :1, 94)= 0,104 >
0
F(X ) 0, 059 =
Nhu vay, tm tham d buc 1 dat v lay
(1)
X (1, 4: 1, 94) =
Cong doan II: Tm theo mau
Tnh theo mau ta lay:
x
i
(k+2)
= m x
i
(k+1)
- x
i
(b)

Ta c: x
i
(2)
= 2x
i
(1)
-x
i
(0)
tm duoc x
1
(2)
= 2(1,4)-2 = 0,8: x
2
(2)
= 2(1,96)-2,8 = 1,12
D theo mau s c toa do mi l:
(2) (2) (2)
1 2
, ) x (x x = = (0,8: 1,12)
Tnh hm muc tieu:
(2) (2) (2)
1 2
) , ) F(X F(x x = = 0,22
Cong doan III: Tham d buc 2
Tham d o buc 2 duoc thuc hien theo cc buc tuong tu nhu tham d o buc 1,
diem xuat pht l diem tham d theo mau X
(2)
. Tham d o buc 2 duoc thuc hien den
bien th n s duoc toa do mi:
- Ta c :
(3) (2)
1 1 1
x x x D = = 0,8 +0,6 = 1,4
- Tnh gi tri
(3) (2)
1 1 1 2
F F(x x , x ) = + D = F(1, 4: 1,12) = 0,14 <
2
F(X ) 0, 22 =
lay:
(3) (2)
1 1 1
x x x = - D = 0,8 - 0,60 = 0,2
- Tnh gi tri
(3) (2)
1 1 1 2
F F(x x , x ) = - D =F(0, 2 ,1,12) =0,38>
2
F(X ) 0, 22 =
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D sang bien th 2:
- Ta c :
(3) (2)
2 2 2
x x x = + D = 1,12 +0,84 = 1,96
- Tnh gi tri
(3) (2)
1 1 2 2
F F(x :x x ) = + D = F(0, 2 :1, 96) = 0,19 <
2
F(X ) 0, 22 =
lay:
(3) (2)
2 2 2
x x x = - D = 1,12 - 0,84 = 0,28
- Tnh gi tri
(2) (3)
1 2 2 1
F F(x x , x ) = - D = F(0, 2 : 0, 28)= 0,104 >
2
F(X ) 0, 22 =
Nhu vay, tm tham d buc 2 dat v lay
(3)
X (0, 2: 0, 28) =
V tnh:
(3) 3 3
1 2
) , x F(X F(x ) F(0, 2: 0, 28) 0, 67 = = =
Kiem tra su thnh cong cua tham d theo mau:
Ta c: F(X(
3)
) = 0,67 > F(X
(1)
) = 0,105. Viec tham d theo mau c ket qua.
iem co so mi bay gi l: X
(b)
= X
(1)
= (1,4: 1,96)
Tiep tuc tham d theo mau vi diem xuat pht l X
(3)
, lay:
X
(4)
= mX
(3)
- X
(1)
= mX
(3)
- X
(1)

Tc l:
x
1
(4)
= 2 (0,2)-1,4 = -1: x
2
(4)
= 2(0,28)-1,96 = -1,4
Tnh F(X
(4)
) =F (-1: -1,4) = 0,51
Tm tham d buc 2 vi diem xuat pht l X
(4)
= (-1: -1,4) v F(X
(4)
) = 0,51
- Tnh gi tri
(4) (4)
1 1 1 2
F F(x x , x ) = + D = F( 1, 4: 1, 4) - - = 0,43 <
4
F(X ) 0, 51 =
lay:
(5) (4)
1 1 1
x x x = - D = -1 - 0,60 =-1,6
- Tnh gi tri
(4) (4)
1 1 1 2
F F(x x , x ) = - D = : F( 1, 6 1, 4) - - =0,43<
4
F(X ) 0, 51 =
Hung di chuyen khong dat yeu cau. Lay x
1
(5)
= -1.

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Hnh 5-10b: Minh hoa qu trnh d tm theo mau theo v du

- Ta c:
(5) (4)
1 1 1
x x x = + D = -1 +0,6 = -0,4
D sang bien th 2:
- Ta c:
(5) (4)
2 2 2
x x x = + D = -1,4 +0,84 = -0,56
- Tnh gi tri
(5) (4) 4
1 1 2 2
) 0, 51 F F(x : x x ) F( 1: 0, 56) 3,18 F(X = = + D = - - = >
Ta c: F(X(
5)
) = 3,18 > F(X
(3)
) = 0,6. Viec tham d theo mau c ket qua. iem
co so mi bay gi l:
X
(b)
= X
(3)
= (0,2 : 0,28)
Tiep tuc tm theo mau vi diem xuat pht X
(5)
v diem co so X
(b)
= X
(3)

-1 -2 -3 -0 1 2 3
1
2
3
-1
-2
-3
x
1
x
2
x
(0)
x
(1)
x
(3)
x
(4)
x
(5)
iem co so: x
(0)
, x
(3)
, x
(5)

oi voi cc buoc d tm
C ket qua
That bai
oi voi cc buoc d tm theo mau
C Ket qua
That bai
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x
1
(6)
= 2( -1) - 0,2 = -2,2: x
2
(6)
= 2.(-0,56) - 0,28 = -1,5.
Tm duoc F(X
(6)
) = F(-2,2: -1,4) = 0,29
Tiep tuc tham d buc 2 so snh vi F(X
(6)
).
x
1
(7)
= -2,2 +0,6 = -1,6 F(-1,6: - 1,4) = 0,43 > F(X
(6)
) = 0,29
Buc tham d c ket qua.
x
2
(7)
= -1,4 + 0,84 = -0,56 F(-1,6: - 0,56) = 1,49 > F(X
(6)
) = 0,29
V F(X
(7)
) = F(-1,6: - 0,56) = 1,49 < F(X(
5)
) = 3,18 nen mac d tham d buc 2
c ket qua nhung ket qua tm mau duoc coi l khong thnh cong.
Do vay, ta phai d tm buc 1 vi diem xuat pht l X
(5)
. Tiep tuc lm nhu vay
cho den khi tm kiem hieu qua. oi vi v du ny tm duoc toi uu l:
X
*
= (-1,0 : 0,0) v F(X
*
) = .

5.5.8. Bi ton ti uu c rng buc
Cc bi ton toi uu c rng buoc duoc goi l cc bi ton cuc tri vung. C hai
loai loai rng buoc: rng buoc dang thc v rng buoc bat dang thc.
5.5.8.1. Bi ton rng buc ng thc
Pht biu bi ton
Bi ton toi uu vi rng buoc dang thc c dang:
F(X) min (5-113)
Rng buoc: g
j
(X) = b
j
j 1, m = (5-114)
Vi: X = (x
1
, x
2
, ..., x
n
) R
n
(5-115)
Ph ng php gii
e giai bi ton loai ny ngui ta tm cch dua bi ton toi uu ve loai khong rng
buoc bang phuong php hm phat, hoac phuong php nhan tu Lagrange.
Trong ti lieu ny gii thieu phuong php nhan tu Lagrange (L).
Thiet lap hm so Lagrange (L), c dang:

m
j j j
j 1
L(X, ) F(X) g (X) b
=
l = + l -

(5-116)
trong d : L(X, l) l hm Lagrange: l l vc to nhan tu Lagrange:
l = (l
1
, l
2
,...,l
j
,...,l
m
)
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Ngui ta chng minh duoc rang nghiem toi uu cua hm L (X, l) cng l nghiem
toi uu cua hm F(X) vi rng buoc (5-117), tc l:
min( max) L (X, l) = min(max) F (X) (5-117)
Nhu vay, vi viec thiet lap hm Lagrange bi ton rng buoc dang thc duoc dua
ve bi ton khong rng buoc. Tuy nhien, so bien cua bi ton tang them m bien l
j
.
Bang cch lap hm Lagrange, d dua bi ton rng buoc dang thc ve dang bi
ton toi uu co dien khong rng buoc. en day, ta c the p dung cc cch giai cua bi
ton phi tuyen khong c rng buoc cho bi ton ny.
Cc diem dng cua hm L (X, l) l:

m
j j j
j 1
i i i
L F
(G (X) b )
x x x
=

= + l -

(5-118)

m
j
j
j 1
i i i
G (X)
L F
0 i 1, n
x x x
=

= + l = =

(5-119)
v
m
j
j j
j 1
K K
L
(G (X) b ) 0
=
l
= - =
l l

K K
K
L
(G (X) b ) K 1, m
= - =
l
(5-120)
v vi j K c
J
K
0
l
=
l

Nhu vay ta phai giai he n + m phuong trnh s tm ra n + m nghiem cua x
i
v l
j
.

5.5.8.2. Bi ton rng buc bt ng thc
Pht biu bi ton
Bi ton toi uu vi rng buoc bat dang thc duoc viet dui dang:
F(X) min (5-121)
vi G
j
(X) b
j
J 1, m = (5-122)
Ch :
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j
(X) b
j
: j=1, 2,..., m c the dua ve dang:
g
j
(X) - b
j
: j = 1, 2,..., m
Ph ng php gii
Trong trung hop rng buoc l bat dang thc: Ngui ta cng dua bi ton c rng
buoc ve bi ton khong rng buoc. C hai cch dua bi ton rng buoc bat dang thc
ve bi ton khong rng buoc.
1. Bang cch dua them vo ve phai mot bien phu de rng buoc bat dang thc tro
thnh rng buoc dang thc:
G
j
(X) + x
j
= b
j
J 1, m = (5-123)
vi x
j
0
Khi d hm Lagrange c dang (5-124). Nhu vay ta d dua ve dang bi ton rng
buoc dang thc, duoc giai tuong tu nhu trung hop (5.5.7.1):

m
L(X, ) F(X) (G (X) b x )
j j j j
j 1
l = + l - +
=
(5-124)
Hay l:
L(X, l )= L(x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
: l
1
, l
2
,..., l
j
,..., l
m
: x
n+1
, x
n+2
,...,x
n+m
) (5-125)
trong d cc gi tri cua l = (l
1
, l
2
,..., l
j
,..., l
m
) v cua X
j
= (x
n+1
,..., x
n+j
,..., x
n+m
) l cc
bien so.
Bi ton khong rng buoc dang (5-125) bay gi d c so bien tang len v l
n+2m bien so. Nhu vay, thay v giai bi ton (5-121) vi c n bien so vi rng buoc
(5-122) ta c bi ton khong rng buoc (5-124) vi n+2m bien so. Sau khi dua bi ton
toi uu ve dang khong c rng buoc ta c the du dung mot trong nhng phuong php
giai d trnh by o tren doi vi bi ton toi uu khong c rng buoc.
2. Khong thiet lap hm L, bi ton toi uu duoc giai vi hm F(X) tuong tu nhu
trung hop khong c rng buoc. Sau d cc nghiem tm duoc s duoc kiem tra xem c
thoa mn cc rng buoc hay khong. Nhng nghiem khong thoa mn cc rng buoc s
bi loai.
5.5.8.3. Bi ton c rng buc ng thc v bt ng thc
Pht biu bi ton
Bi ton toi uu c rng buoc dang thc v rng buoc bat dang thc duoc viet dui
dang:
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F(X) min (5-126)
vi G
j
(X) b
j
J 1, m = (5-127)
v h
k
(X) = 0

Ch :
j
(X) b
j
: j =1, 2,..., m c the dua ve dang:
g
j
(X) - b
j
: j =1, 2,..., m
Ph ng php gii
Trong trung hop ny thiet lap hm Lagrange c dang:

m mk
j j j j k k
j 1 k 1
L(X, , ) F(X) g (X) b x h (X)
= =
l m = + l - + + m

(5-128)
Vi m = (m
1
, m
2
,..., m
mk
) l nhan tu Lagrange mo rong.
oi vi bi ton loai ny hm Lagrange mo rong c so bien l n+2m+m
k
. Cch
giai bi ton cng duoc thuc hien tuong tu nhu cc trung hop tren.
Cc bi ton toi uu ho dang co dien c the duoc giai vi nhieu phuong php
khc nhau.

5.6. Quy hoch ng
5.6.1. Khi nim chung
Phuong php quy hoach dong dua tren nguyen l cua Bellman, duoc pht bieu
tm tat nhu sau:
Mot the hien toi uu co dc tinh l, bat luan trang thai ban dau v nhng quyet
dinh ban dau nhu the no, nhng quyet dinh tiep theo phai tao thnh mot the hien toi
uu doi voi trang thai ban dau, do ket qua cua nhng quyet dinh dau tien tao nen.
Thuc chat cua nguyen l ny l, thiet lap mot chien luoc toi uu nhieu giai doan,
sao cho li giai o moi giai doan nhan duoc theo loi ch tong cong c loi nhat tnh den
cuoi giai doan dang xt. l co so cua viec thiet lap cua phuong trnh truy hoi, the
hien chuoi cc bi ton toi uu nhieu giai doan.
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Phuong php quy hoach dong cho php dua bi ton toi uu nhieu bien ve chuoi
cc bi ton toi uu mot bien so. Phuong php quy hoach dong l phuong php duoc p
dung nhieu trong quy hoach v quan l nguon nuc.
Khi p dung phuong php quy hoach dong doi vi cc bi ton thuc te can ch
dieu kien sau: Hm muc tieu cua bi ton phai l hm tch duoc, duoc viet dui
dang tong cua cc hm thnh phan, v moi hm thnh phan chi cha mot bien doc lap,
tc l:

n
1 2 n j
j 1
Z(x , x ..., x ) z(x )
=
=

(5-129)
Hoac c the viet dui dang khai trien:

1 1 2 2 j j n n
Z z (x ) z (x ) ... z (x ) ... z (x ) = + + + + + (5-130)

5.6.2. Phuong php quy hoach dng vi bi ton phn b ti nguyn
5.6.2.1. Bi ton
Gia su c luong ti nguyen X
T
duoc phan bo cho n doi tuong su dung, gia thiet
rang hm muc tieu c dang tch duoc:

1 1 2 2 j j n n
Z z (x ) z (x ) ... z (x ) ... z (x ) = + + + + + (5-131)
tc l hm muc tieu l tong cc hm m trong d chi cha mot bien so. Trong (5-131),
cc gi tri
1 2 n
x , x ..., x l cc ti nguyen cua moi doi tuong nhan duoc theo mot phuong
n phan phoi no d thoa mn dieu kien sau:

T
1 2 j n
X x x ... x ... x = + + + + + (5- 132)
Can xc dinh chien luoc phan bo ti nguyen cho cc doi tuong su dung sao cho
hm muc tieu (5-131) dat gi tri ln nhat, tc l:

n
i j
T
j 1
Z Z (x )
X
J max
max
=
= =

(5-133)

5.6.2.2. Ph- ng gip gii ca Bellman
Thuat ton toi uu duoc giai theo hai hai buc: Buc tnh xuoi nham xc dinh cc
the hien toi uu c dieu kien, buc tnh nguoc duoc thuc hien de tm nghiem toi uu doi
vi cc bien so.
a. B c tnh xui
Bellman d dua ra nguyen l toi uu nhieu giai doan. au tien xem xt chien luoc
phan bo toi uu cho hai doi tuong sau d l 3, 4 v.v... den n doi tuong o moi mot giai
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doan, chien luoc toi uu cho doi tuong dang xt duoc ket hop vi chien luoc toi uu o cc
giai doan truc.
Truc tien xem xt su phan chia ti nguyen gia hai doi tuong dau tien.
Hai doi tuong th nhat v th hai s lay cc gi tri sao cho:

2 2 1 1
F z (x ) z (x ) = + max (5-134)
Hoac l:

T
2 2 2 2 1 1
2
Z (X ) (z (x ) z (x ))
max
x
= + (5-135)
Vi dieu kien tong so ti nguyen phan cho hai doi tuong dau tien khong duoc
vuot qu gi tri
T
2
X , tc l:

T T
1 2 2
X x x X + = (5-136)
Trong d:
T
2
X - tong ti nguyen phan cho hai doi tuong dau tien:
T
X l tong so ti
nguyen.
V
T
1 2 2
x X x = - nen (5-135) duoc viet dui dang:

T T
2 2 2 2 1 2 2
2
Z (X ) (z (x ) z (X x ))
max
x
- = + (5-137)
Giai phuong trnh (5-137) tm nghiem toi uu.
Ta lap bang 5-6 nhu sau:
- Chia
T
2
X thnh m mc c the (trong bang 5-6, m = 4, cot (2)).
- Gia dinh m gi tri x
2
tuong ng vi cc mc cua
T
2
X , cot (3) bang 5-6.
- Tnh gi tri
T
1 2 2
x X x = - (cot

(4) bang 5-6).
- Tnh gi tri z(x
1
) v z(x
2
): cot (5) v (6).
- Tnh gi tri cua F : cot (7)
- Tuong ng vi moi gi tri
T
2
X , tm duoc gi tri toi uu:
T
2 2
Z X ( ) = max F v cc
2
x
*
tuong ng.
Gia su ta cng chia
T
2
X thnh 4 mc tnh ton. Khi d, s c tong cong 16 gi tri
c the (xem bang 5-6).
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Moi mot gi tri c the cua doi tuong th nhat c the phoi hop vi 4 gi tri c the
cua doi tuong th hai sao cho dam bao rng buoc (5-136). Nhu vay, tuong ng vi moi
mot mc cua
T
2
X s to hop vi 4 mc cua x
2
v tao thnh 4 4 =16 gi tri c the, tao
ra 4 gi tri cuc dai theo bieu thc (5-137) tuong ng vi moi mc duoc chia cua dai
luong
T
2
X .
Gia su sau khi tnh ton theo bang 5-6 ta tm duoc 4 trung hop c gi tri ln
nhat tuong ng vi 4 mc cua gi tri
T
2
X (cc gi tri c dau (*).
Nhu vay, c the thiet lap 4 phuong n toi uu tuong ng vi 4 gi tri x
2
. Cng vi
n l cc gi tri
T
2
X v
T
2 2
z (X ) . Lap duoc hai quan he ph tro dang bang nhu sau:

T
2 2 2
X X (X )
* *
= v
T
2 2
z (X ) (5-138)
Cc gi tri toi uu tren day duoc goi l toi uu c dieu kien. Cc gi tri hm toi uu
l
T
2 2
z (X ) goi l cc gi tri toi uu c dieu kien cua hm toi uu.
Tiep tuc nhu vay de tm cc phuong n toi uu khi phan phoi ti nguyen cho doi
tuong th 2 v th 3. Nhung cc gi tri toi uu bay gi l tong cua gi tri toi uu c dieu
kien o giai doan truc. Tc l:

T T
3 3 3 3 2 3 3
3
Z (X ) (z (x ) z (X x ))
max
x
- = + (5-139)
Tiep tuc thuc hien den buc th j ta c cong thc tong qut:

T T
j j j j j 1 j j
j
Z (X ) (z (x ) z (X x ))
max
x
-
- = + (5-140)
Vi rng buoc:
T T
j j 1 j
X X x
-
= + (5-141)
T (5-141) c:
T T
j 1 j j
X X x
-
- = , do d cong thc (5-140) c the viet dui dang
khc:

T T
j j j j j 1 j 1
j
Z (X ) (z (x ) z (X ))
max
x
- -
= + (5-140a)
O giai doan cuoi khi j = n ta c:

T T
n n n n n n 1 n n
n
Z Z x (X ) (z (x ) z (X ))
max
x
-
= - = + (5-142)
vi
T T T
n n 1 n
X X X x
-
= = + (5-143)
en giai doan ny gi tri Z
n
chnh l gi tri cuc dai cua hm muc tieu Z.
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Bang 5-6: Cc gi tri c the cc trung hop phan phoi ti nguyen
cho hai doi tuong dau tien
TT
T
2
X

x
2
T
1
X = x
1
=
T
2
X - x
2
z(x
1
) z(x
2
) F=z(x
1
)+z(x
2
)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
x
21

(1)
11
x

z(
(1)
11
x )

z(x
21
) z(x
21
) + z(
(1)
11
x )

x
22
(1)
12
x z(
(1)
12
x ) z(x
22
) z(x
22
) + z(
(1)
12
x )
*
x
23

(1)
13
x

z(
(1)
13
x )

z(x
23
) z(x
23
) + z(
(1)
13
x )

1
T
2(1)
X
x
24
(1)
14
x

z(
(1)
14
x )

z(x
24
) z(x
24
) + z(
(1)
14
x )

x
21

(2)
11
x

z(
(2)
11
x )

z(x
21
) z(x
21
) + z(
(2)
11
x )

x
22
(2)
12
x z(
(2)
12
x ) z(x
22
) z(x
22
) + z(
(2)
12
x )
x
23

(2)
13
x

z(
(2)
13
x )

z(x
23
) z(x
23
) + z(
(2)
13
x )

2
T
2(2)
X
x
24
(2)
14
x

z(
(2)
14
x )

z(x
24
) z(x
24
) + z(
(2)
14
x )
*
x
21

(3)
11
x

z(
(3)
11
x )

z(x
21
) z(x
21
) + z(
(3)
11
x )

x
22
(3)
12
x z(
(3)
12
x ) z(x
22
) z(x
22
) + z(
(3)
12
x )
x
23

(3)
13
x

z(
(3)
13
x )

z(x
23
) z(x
23
) + z(
(3)
13
x )
*
3
T
2(3)
X
x
24
(3)
14
x

z(
(3)
14
x )

z(x
24
) z(x
24
) + z(
(3)
14
x )

x
21

(4)
11
x

z(
(4)
11
x )

z(x
21
) z(x
21
) + z(
(4)
11
x )
*
x
22
(4)
12
x z(
(4)
12
x ) z(x
22
) z(x
22
) + z(
(4)
12
x )
x
23

(4)
13
x

z(
(4)
13
x )

z(x
23
) z(x
23
) + z(
(4)
13
x )

4
T
2(4)
X
x
24
( 4)
14
x

( 4)
14
x

z(x
24
) z(x
24
) +
( 4)
14
x

oi vi mot giai doan th j bat ky vi j = 1, 2, 3,..., j,..., n: vi su bien doi cua dai
luong
T
j
X , tuong tu nhu giai doan th hai ta c 2 cap quan he:

T
j j j
X X (X )
* *
= v
T
j j j
z z (X ) =

(5-144)
en doi tuong cuoi cng lap duoc quan he:

T
n n n
X X (X )
* *
= v
T
n n n
z z (X ) =

(5-145)
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Vi nhng cap nhu vay s thiet lap cc bang (bang 5-7) v luu tr trong my tnh
de su dung o buc tnh nguoc. Trong bang 5-7 so mc chia cho moi mot doi tuong
khong phai l 4 m lay tong qut bang m.
b. B c tnh ng c
Qu trnh tm nghiem
1 2 n
X (x , x , ..., x )
* * * *
= duoc thuc hien o buc tnh nguoc.
Buc tnh nguoc rat don gian v khong can thuc hien cc php tnh toi uu, m chi su
dung cc quan he d thiet lap o giai doan tnh xuoi ghi trong bang 5-2 de suy ra
nghiem cua bi ton. Qu trnh tm nghiem o buc tnh nguoc duoc thuc hien theo
trnh tu sau:
- O giai doan cuoi cng cua buc tnh xuoi ta d tm duoc gi tri
n
X
*
, theo quan
he d lap san tm duoc
T
n
X
*
.
- Tiep d tm duoc
T T
n-1 n n
X X X
* * *
= -

v tra quan he (5-145):
T
n-1 n 1 n 1
X X (X )
* *
- -
= tm duoc
n-1
X
*
.
- Tiep tuc nhu vay cho den doi tuong dau tien tm duoc cc gi tri toi uu:

1 2 n
X (x , x , ..., x )
* * * *
= . (5-146)

Bang 5-7: Bang cc quan he ph tro bi ton phan bo ti nguyen
Giai doan 2 Giai doan 3 ... Giai doan n
T
2
X
T
2 2
Z (X )
2
X
*

T
3
X
T
3 3
Z (X )
3
X
*
...
T
n
X
T
n n
Z (X )
n
X
*

T
21
X
T
2 21
Z (X )
21
X
*

T
31
X
T
3 31
Z (X )
31
X
*
...
T
n1
X
T
n n1
Z (X )
n1
X
*

. ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
T
2i
X
T
2 2i
Z (X )
2i
X
*

T
3i
X
T
3 3i
Z (X )
3i
X
*
...
T
ni
X
T
n ni
Z (X )
ni
X
*

. ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
T
2m
X
T
2 2m
Z (X )
2m
X
*

T
3m
X
T
3 3m
Z (X )
3m
X
*
...
T
nm
X
T
n nm
Z (X )
nm
X
*

V d:
Bi ton: Mot tram thuy dien can chay my vi cong suat N
C
= 250 MW. Can
tm su phan phoi cong suat cho 3 to my pht dien de pht cong suat N
C
sao cho tong
luu luong vo nh my l nho nhat.
w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n
Gia thiet t nhat phai c 1 my pht phai lm viec. Tc l, cong suat nho nhat cua
tram thuy dien s l:
N
min
=
3
j
j 1
N 50MW
=
=
(5-147)
Goi cong suat cua cc my pht l N
j
, ta c tong cong suat ln nhat cua cc my
pht l:

3
T
j max
j 1
N N
=
=
(5-148)
Quan he gia luu luong v cong suat cua moi to my Q
j
= f
j
(N
j
), vi j = 1, 2,...,
n, cho trong bang (5-8).

Bang 5-8: Quan he cong suat luu luong cua cc to my
d8A' *S $%8 $%&'( d K"
B
bTL Ie. )f'( T8g, )\A )E) ,h "E< K>_
B
ijL
kR T8+,
Xh
"E<
_ M_ N_ O_ P_ Q_ >__
6%8 > _ ?_ ?M B_ BM C_ CM
$%&'( ? _ >P ?B B_ BO CC M>
K"
B
bTL B _ ?> ?? ?C ?P BM M_

Cong suat toi da cua moi my l 100 MW, do d c:
- Cong suat toi da cua hai to my l 200 MW
- Cong suat toi da cua 3 to my l
max
T
N = 300 MW.
Hm muc tieu theo bi ton dat ra duoc viet dui dang sau:
Q
n
=
3
j j
j 1
Q (N ) min
=

(5-149)
Vi rng buoc l:
max
3
T
j
j 1
50MW N N
=

(5-150)
Cch gii:
B- c tnh xui:
Truc tien ta xt phan phoi cong suat cho hai to my.
Hm muc tieu doi vi 2 to my s l:

T T
2 2 2 2 1 2 2
2
Q N Q N Q N N
max
N
= + - ( ) ( ( ) ( )) (5-151)
w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n

Vi
T
2 2 1
N N N - = (5-152)
Trong d:
N
1
, N
2
tuong ng l cong suat cua to my 1 v to my 2:
Q
1
(N
1
) v Q
2
(N
2
) l luu luong cua to my 1 v 2 tuong ng vi cong suat N
1
, N
2
:
T
2
N l tong cong suat cua hai to my dau tien, phai thoa mn rng buoc:

T
2
50MW N 200M (5-153)
Gia su ta chia cong suat
T
2
N thnh cc mc vi buc chia l 10MW. Lap bang
phuong n phan phoi cong suat v tnh luu luong tong cong cua hai to my dau tien
(bang 5-9).
T ket qua tnh ton o bang 5-9 c the chon ra cc phuong n toi uu theo cc cap
chia cua dac trung
T
2
N v lap duoc quan he gia 3 dai luong
T
2
N , N
2
v
T T
2 2
Q (N ) (bang
5-10). Ta xem xt cc phuong n phan phoi cong suat cho 3 to my. Tong luu luong
cua 3 to my duoc xc dinh nh phuong trnh dang truy hoi:

T T
3 3 3 3 2 3 3
3
Q N Q N Q N N
max
N
= + - ( ) ( ( ) ( )) (5-154)
e giam khoi luong tnh ton (v day l v du minh hoa) ta chon buc tnh ton
h = 50MW.
Tong cong suat 3 to my s nam trong khoang:
50MW
T
3
N 300 MW
Theo phuong trnh (5-154) ta lap bang (5-11) ve cc phuong n phan phoi cong
suat cho 3 to my, trong d cong suat cua 2 to my dau tien l cc phuong n toi uu
khi xem xt cc phuong n phan phoi cong suat gia 2 to my d.
T ket qua tnh ton o bang (5-11) c the chon duoc cc phuong n toi uu c
tong luu luong qua cc to my l nho nhat. Ket qua ghi trong bang (5-12), l ket qua
cuoi cng cua qu trnh tnh ton. Gi tri toi uu tuong ng vi cc mc quyet dinh ve
cong suat m 3 to my phai dam nhiem.
Neu ta quyet dinh 3 to my phai chay my vi cong suat tong cong l 250 MW,
th phuong n toi uu tuong ng s l phuong n 5 trong bang (5-11).
B- c tnh ng- c:
Theo thuat ton nguoc tm duoc li giai cua bi ton ghi o bang (5-13).
w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n
Bang 5-9: Cc phuong n phan phoi cong suat cho hai to my dau tien
XX
T
2
N
7?
7> l
T
2
N `7
? d
>
K7>L d
?
K7?L m l d
>
K7
>
Lcd
?
K7
?
L
> ?__ >__ >__ CM M> QN
? >Q_ Q_ >__ CM CC PQ
B ` >__ Q_ C_ M> Q>
C >P_ P_ >__ CM BO P?
M ` >__ P_ BM M> PN
N >O_ O_ >__ CM B_ OM
O ` >__ O_ B_ M> P>
P >N_ N_ >__ CM ?B NP
Q ` >__ N_ ?M M> ON
>_ ` P_ P_ BM BO O?
>> ` Q_ O_ B_ CC OC
>? ` O_ Q_ C_ B_ O_
>B >M_ M_ >__ CM >P NB
>C ` >__ M_ ?_ M> O>
>M ` N_ Q_ C_ ?B NB
>N ` Q_ N_ ?M CC NQ
>O ` P_ O_ B_ BO NO
>P ` O_ P_ BM B_ NM
>Q >C_ M_ Q_ C_ >P MP
?_ ` Q_ M_ ?_ CC NC
?> ` N_ P_ BM ?B MP
?? ` P_ N_ ?M BO N?
?B ` O_ O_ B_ B_ N_
?C >B_ M_ P_ BM >P MB
?M ` P_ M_ ?_ BO MO
?N ` N_ O_ B_ ?B MB
?O ` O_ N_ ?M BO N?
?P >?_ M_ O_ B_ >P CP
?Q ` O_ M_ ?_ B_ M_
B_ ` N_ N_ ?M ?B CP
B> >>_ M_ N_ ?M >P CB
B? ` N_ M_ ?_ ?B CB
BB >__ _ >__ CM _ CM
BC ` >__ _ _ M> M>
w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n

XX
T
2
N
7?
7> l
T
2
N `7
? d
>
K7>L d
?
K7?L m l d
>
K7
>
Lcd
?
K7
?
L
BM ` M_ M_ ?_ >P BP
BN Q_ _ Q_ C_ _ C_
BO ` Q_ _ _ CC CC
BP P_ _ P_ BM _ BM
BQ ` P_ _ _ BO BO
C_ O_ O_ _ _ B_ B_
C> ` _ O_ B_ _ B_
C? N_ _ N_ ?M _ ?M
CB ` N_ _ _ ?B ?B
CC M_ _ M_ ?_ _ ?_
CM ` M_ _ _ >P >P

Bang 5-10: Cc phuong n phan phoi toi uu c diu kien cho hai to my dau tien
XX
T
2
N
7?
T
2
Q l"A] m
XX
T
2
N
7?
T
2
Q l"A] m
> ?__ >__ QN >? >?_ M_ CP
? >Q_ Q_ PQ >B >?_ N_ CP
B >P_ P_ P? >C >>_ M_ CB
C >O_ O_ OM >M >>_ N_ CB
M >N_ N_ NP >N >__ M_ BP
N >M_ M_ NB >O Q_ _ C_
O >M_ N_ NB >P P_ _ BM
P >C_ M_ MP >Q O_ O_ B_
Q >C_ N_ MP ?_ O_ _ B_
>_ >B_ M_ MB ?> N_ N_ ?B
>> >B_ N_ MB ?? M_ M_ >P

w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n
Bang 5-11: Cc phuong n phan phoi cong suat cho 3 to my
XX
T
3
N
7
B

T T
2 3 3
N N N = -

T
2 2
Q (N )
d
?
K7
B
L
T
2 2 3 3
F Q (N ) Q (N ) = +
> M_ _ M_ >P _ >P
? >__ M_ M_ >P ?> BQ
B >M_ M_ >__ BP ?> MQ
C ` >__ M_ >P M_ NP
M ` _ >M_ NB _ NB
N ?__ M_ >M_ NB ?> PC
O ` >__ >__ BP M_ PP
P ` _ ?__ QN _ QN
Q ?M_ M_ ?__ QN ?> >>O
>_ ` >__ >M_ NB M_ >>B
>> B__ >__ ?__ QN M_ >CN

Bang 5-12: Cc phuong n phan phoi toi uu c diu kien cho hai to my dau tien
XX
T
3
N
7
B

T
3
Q l "A] m
XX
T
3
N
7
B

T
3
Q l "A] m
> M_ _ >P C ?__ M_ PC
? >__ M_ BQ M ?M_ >__ >>B
B >M_ M_ MQ N B__ >__ >CN

Bang 5-13: Ket qua phan phoi cong suat vi cong suat tong l 250 MW
Xh "E< > ? B
kf'( T8+, KnjL >__ M_ >__
6%8 $%&'( K"
B
bTL CM >P M_

5.6.3. Phuong php quy hoach dng tm qu dao hoc trang thi ti uu
Phuong php quy hoach dong vi bi ton trang thi thung duoc p dung trong
mot so bi ton toi uu c cha bien thay doi theo thi gian. Do d, loai bi ton ny rat
duoc luu tam.
Bi ton loai ny l bi ton tm qu dao toi uu. Thuat ng 'qu dao duoc hieu
theo hai nghia: khong gian v thi gian.
w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n

V du 1: Can xay dung mot dung day tai dien noi 2 thnh pho A v B. Tm
tuyen xay dung dung day sao cho chi xay dung l nho nhat. Khi d tuyen xay dung
dung day s l quy dao theo ngha khong gian.
V du 2: Xc dinh qu trnh luu luong tho qua nh my thuy dien trong thi
gian ma kiet sao cho tong nang dien trong thi gian van hnh l ln nhat. Su thay doi
luu luong qua nh my lm thay doi muc nuc ho cha. Qu trnh thay doi muc nuc
ho theo thi gian duoc coi l quy dao theo thi gian.
Cc bien mo ta qu dao (theo thi gian hoac khong gian) goi l bien trang thi.
Bi ton quy hoach dong loai ny goi l bi ton quy hoach dong vi bien trang thi.
Nguyen l co ban cua bi ton toi uu trang thi cng tuong tu nhu bi ton phan
bo ti nguyen. Bi ton toi uu cng duoc thuc hien theo hai buc: buc tnh xuoi v
buc tnh nguoc. o buc tnh xuoi, thuat ton duoc thuc hien nham tm ra chuoi cc
nghiem toi uu c dieu kien, sau d, thuat ton nguoc cho php tm trang thi (qu dao)
toi uu cua ca qu trnh.
5.6.3.1. Pht biu bi ton
Bi ton vi bien trang thi l thi gian duoc dat ra nhu sau:
Gia su ta phai dua trang thi cua he thong t thi diem ban dau t
0
den thi diem
cuoi t
n
(hnh 5-11). Goi X
0
l trang thi ban dau cua doi tuong: x
n,i
l trang thi cua doi
tuong nghien cu o thi doan cuoi cng t
n
vi i l bat ky trong so m trang thi c the
cua n: i = 1,., m. Can tm qu dao di chuyen cua doi tuong t trang thi ban dau X
0

den trang thi cuoi cng x
n,i
sao cho qu dao d l toi uu. Trong qu trnh di chuyen t
trang thi ban dau X
0
n,i
, doi tuong nghien cu s tao ra mot
'hieu ng no d. Dang cua hieu ng rat da dang tuy thuoc vo dang cua bi ton: c
the l nang luong can tieu hao, c the l nang luong sinh ra trong qu trnh di chuyen,
cng c the l chi ph can thiet trong qu trnh di chuyen t trang thi ny sang trang
thi khc v.v... Sau day, de tien su dung ta goi chung cc hieu ng d l nng luong.
Goi Z (x
n,i,
,X
0
) l 'nang luong sinh ra trong qu trnh di chuyen cua doi tuong t
trang thi ban dau X
0
n,i
. Can tm qu dao di chuyen cua doi
tuong X
0
x
n,i
vi i l trang thi bat ky tai thi diem cuoi, sao cho hm nang luong:
F = Z (x
n,i,
,X
0
) max (min) (5-155)
Qu dao tuong ng s l qu dao toi uu.
Ta chia thi ky
0
t t
n
ra nhieu thi doan noi tiep nhau, gia su ta chia lm n thi
doan. O moi thi doan, trang thi cua doi tuong c the l bat ky trong gii han hoat
dong cua n (xem hnh 5-11). K hieu
j, i
x l trang thi c the cua doi tuong o thi
doan th j (chi so chi thi doan): i l chi so chi trang thi cua doi tuong o thi doan d.
w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n
o moi mot thi doan duoc phan chia, trang thi cua doi tuong chi nhan nhng gi tri
thoa mn dieu kien:

i i
min j, i max
x x x vi i =1, 2,..., n: j = 1, 2,..., m
Trong d,
i
min
x v
i
max
x tuong ng l gii han tren v gii han dui cua trang thi
tai thi doan th j d phan chia.
K hieu
j j, i j 1, k
z (x , x )
-
l "nang luong" nhan duoc khi doi tuong di chuyen t
trang thi k bat ky o thi doan j -1 l
j 1, k
(x )
-
, den trang thi i bat ky o thi doan j l
j, i
(x ) . Ta phan tch cc trang thi toi uu de doi tuong khi n di chuyen t trang thi
ban dau
0
x den trang thi
j, i
(x ) . C vo so cc qu dao de doi tuong "chuyen dong" t
toa do ban dau
0
x den trang thi
j, i
x , nhung chi c mot qu dao toi uu.

1 2 ............................ n-2 n-1 n
Buc
x
1,1
x
1,2
x
1,3
x
1,4
x
2,4
x
2,3
x
2,2
x
2,1
x
n-2,4
x
n-2,3
x
n-2,2
x
n-2,1
x
n,4
x
n,3
x
n,2
x
n,1
x
0
Qu dao ti uu

Hnh 5-11

Theo nguyen l Bellman, bi ton toi uu trang thi, duoc pht bieu nhu sau:
Qu dao toi uu, de mot doi tuong di chuyen t trang thai ban dau x
0
den trang
thai
j, i
x bat ky o giai doan thu j, l qu dao m khi di chuyen tren no sinh ra mot
'nng luong toi uu'.
Nang luong toi uu nhan duoc l cuc tri cua tong cc nang luong de doi tuong di
chuyen t trang thi ban dau den trang thi
j 1, k
(x )
-
cong vi nang luong de doi tuong
di chuyen t
j 1, k
(x )
-
den trang thi
j, i
x . Nhu vay, can tm trang thi no trong so cc
w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n

trang thi o thi doan truc d
j 1, k
(x )
-
vi k = 1, m, de doi tuong khi di chuyen t
0
x di qua n den
j, i
x dat nang luong toi uu.
V qu dao chuyen dong t
0
x di qua
j 1, k
(x )
-
den
j, i
x phai l qu dao toi uu, do
d, qu dao t
0
x den trang thi can tm truc d
j 1, k
(x )
-
cng phai l qu dao toi uu.
Boi vay, phai tm qu dao no trong so cc qu dao di chuyen cua doi tuong t
0
x den
trang thi bat ky
j 1, k
(x )
-
o giai doan j - 1 l qu dao toi uu. Qu dao toi uu phai l qu
dao m nang luong sinh dat gi tri cuc tri. Nang luong ny bang tong nang luong toi
uu de he thong di chuyen t
0
x den
j 2, k
(x )
-
cong vi nang luong sinh ra khi doi tuong
di chuyen t trang thi toi uu o thi doan truc d
j 2, k
(x )
-
den trang thi
j 1, i
(x )
-
.
Mot cch tuong tu, can tm trang thi no trong so cc trang thi truc d
j 2, k
(x )
-
o giai doan j - 2, de khi doi tuong di chuyen t trang thi ban dau
0
x qua n
den
j 1, i
(x )
-
dat nang luong toi uu.
C nhu vay ta can tien hnh nhng buc tuong tu theo chieu nguoc lai cho den
trang thi ban dau.
Nhu vay, de tm duoc qu dao toi uu, ta can thiet lap cc qu dao toi uu c dieu
kien bat dau t trang thi ban dau (buc tnh xuoi), sau d, trong buc tnh nguoc, t
trang thi toi uu c dieu kien o giai doan cuoi cng, ta lan nguoc lai s duoc qu dao
toi uu cua bi ton.
5.6.3.2. Ph- ng php gii
a. B c tnh xui
Truc tien ta xem xt "nang luong" de doi tuong di chuyen t trang thi ban dau
0
x

den trang thi bat ky cua n o thi doan th nhat (j =1). Tai thi doan th nhat, doi
tuong c the di chuyen t trang thi ban dau
0
x den trang thi bat ky
1, i
x . Hm nang
luong dat duoc khi doi tuong di chuyen t trang thi ban dau
0
x den trang thi bat ky
1, i
x l:
1 1, i 0
z (x , x ) , vi i 1, m = .
O thi doan dau tien, ta chua tm trang thi toi uu.
Sang giai doan th hai, doi tuong cng c the di chuyen den trang thi bat ky
2, i
x . C vo so cc qu dao trang thi t
0
x qua cc trang thi bat ky o thi doan j = 1
de dat den
2, i
x (vi i l bat ky). Ta can xc dinh xem trang thi no o thi doan truc
w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n
d (j = 1), de khi doi tuong di chuyen qua den trang thi
2, i
x cho gi tri toi uu ve nang
luong, tc l:

2 2, i 2 2, i 1, k 1 1, k 0
2, i
Z (x ) max (z (x , x ) z (x , x ))
x
= + (5-156)
vi k = 1, 2,..., m: v i = 1, 2,..., m (neu o tat ca cc thi doan, vng gii han cua
he thong deu duoc chia thnh m trang thi).
Trong d:
1 1, k 0
z (x , x ) l "nang luong" sinh ra khi doi tuong di chuyen t trang thi ban dau
x
o
den trang thi x
1,k

o thi doan dau tien:
2 2, i 1, k
z (x , x ) l nang luong sinh ra khi doi tuong di chuyen t trang thi x
1,k

o giai
doan 1 den trang thi bat ky x
2,i
o giai doan 2.
Vi moi trang thi th i o thi doan th 2, s tm duoc mot gi tri
1, k
x
*
o thi
doan th nhat de cho qu dao
0 1, k 2, i
x x x
*
- - l qu dao toi uu. Tuong ng vi moi
trang thi th i ( i 1, m = ) c mot gi tri
1, k
x
*
. Ta s c m qu dao dat toi uu den cc
trang thi
2, i
x vi i =1, 2,..., m.
at
1 1, k 1 1, k 0
Z (x ) z (x ,x ) = (5-157)
Ta c the viet lai bieu thc (5-156) dui dang sau:

2 2, i 2 2, i 1, k 1 1, k
2, i
Z (x ) max (z (x , x ) z (x ))
x
= + (5-158)
Trong d:
1 1, k
z (x ) l gi tri toi uu khi doi tuong di chuyen t x
0
den x
1,k
, vi k l
bat ky o thi doan th nhat.
Theo ket qua tm duoc, ta lap duoc cap quan he
1, k
x
*
~ x
2,i
.

Thi doan th 3, can phai tm trang thi no trong so cc trang thi c the o thi
doan th hai x
2,k
, de khi doi tuong di chuyen t trang thi ban dau qua n den trang
thi x
3,i

dat nang luong toi uu. ieu kien duoc thoa mn duoc mo ta theo bieu thc sau:

3 3, i 3 3, i 2, k 2 2, k
3, i
Z (x ) max (z (x , x ) z (x ))
x
= + (5-159)
Trong d:
w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n

2 2, k
z (x ) l nang luong toi uu khi doi tuong di chuyen t trang thi ban dau x
0

den trang thi x
2,k
, d duoc xc dinh o thi doan th 2.

3 3, k 2, k
, x z (x ) l nang luong khi doi tuong di chuyen t trang thi x
2,k
(vi k l bat
ky), den trang thi x
3,i
o thi doan 3.
Tuong tu nhu o giai doan 2 ta tm duoc trang thi
2, k
x
*
toi uu o thi doan truc d
(thi doan th 2), de doi tuong di chuyen t trang thi ban dau x
o
qua n den trang
thi x
3,i

bat ky o giai doan 3. Nhu vay, den giai doan 3, ta c qu dao toi uu
0 1, k 2, k 3, i
x x x x
* *
- - - .V tuong tu ta lap duoc cap quan he
2, k
x
*
~ x
3,i

en thi diem bat ky th j ta c bieu thc tong qut cua bi ton toi uu c dieu
kien:

j j, i j j, i j-1, k j 1 j-1, k
j, i
Z (x ) (z (x ,x ) Z (x ))
max
x
-
= + (5-160)
Tuong tu nhu tat ca cc thi doan tren, o thi doan bat ky th j, c the tm duoc
mot trang thi o thi doan truc n j - 1 l
j-1, k
x
*
de khi doi tuong di chuyen t qu dao
toi uu truc d (qu dao toi uu t trang thi ban dau x
o
den trang thi
j-1, k
x
*
) den trang
thi bat ky x
j,i
cho gi tri toi uu. Nhu vay, den giai doan th j ta c qu dao toi uu t
trang thi ban dau x
o
, den trang thi bat ky x
j,i
l:
0 1, k 2, k 3, k j, i
x x ... x x x
* * *
- - - - - .V c cap quan he
j-1, k
x
*
~
j, i
x
en thi doan cuoi cng j = n, ta c :

n n, i n n, i n-1, k n 1 n-1, k
Z (x ) max(z (x ,x ) Z (x ))
-
= + (5-161)
Trong d: x
n,i
l trang thi can dat duoc o thi doan cuoi vi i =1, 2,..., m. Gi
tri Z
n
(x
n,i
) chnh l gi tri toi uu cua hm muc tieu, de dua he thong t trang thi ban
dau den trang thi x
n,i
bat ky o giai doan cuoi. Tai thi doan cuoi, vi moi trang thi
duoc an dinh trong so cc trang thi c the i (vi i =1, 2,..., m) cua n, s tuong ng c
mot qu dao toi uu khi n di chuyen t trang thi ban dau den trang thi d.
Trong thuc te, o thi doan cuoi cng c the xay ra hai trung hop sau:
1. n dinh truc mot trang thi no d trong so cc trang thi x
n,i
m doi tuong
can phai di chuyen den. Khi d, t trang thi an dinh truc, tnh ton theo buc tnh
nguoc (xem muc sau) s duoc qu dao toi uu tuong ng.
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2. Can xc dinh trang no trong so cc trang thi x
n,i
de c qu dao toi uu ton
cuc. Trong trung hop nhu vay, gi tri toi uu s l cuc tri cua cc gi tri toi uu trong so
m trang thi c the o giai doan cuoi, tc l:
Z
n
= max(Z
n
(x(
n,i
): i = 1, 2,..., m)) (5-162)
Tuong tu nhu bi ton phan phoi ti nguyen, ta lap bang cc quan he gia trang
thi toi uu o thi doan truc d vi trang thi bat ky cua thi doan dang xt (bang
5-14). Cc quan he ny duoc luu trong bo nh cua my tnh v duoc su dung o buc
tnh nguoc.
b. B c tnh ng c
Vi trang thi x
n
no d (gia su l x
n,3
), theo quan he o bang (5-14), tm duoc
mot trang thi toi uu
n-1
x
*
=
n-1, k
x
*
, vi k l mot chi so trang thi cu the no d tuong
ng vi trang thi can dat o giai doan n l x
n
= x
n,3
. Chang han ta tm duoc k = 2, khi
d:
n-1
x
*
=
n-1, 2
x
*
.
C duoc gi tri
n-1, k
x
*
, ta tiep tuc dng bang quan he tm ra chuoi cc trang thi
toi uu (qu dao toi uu t)
n-1
x
*
den
n
x
*
:

0 1 2 j n
, x , x , ..., x , ..., x ) (x
* * * * *
(5-163)

Bang 5- 14: Bang quan he ph tro s! dung cho buc tnh nguoc
D.A. G23'
X13'( ,*E.
? B RRR '
>
1, k
x
*
o ]
?p>

2, k
x
*
o ]
Bp>

.
n-1, k
x
*
o ]
'p>

?
1, k
x
*
o ]
?p?

2, k
x
*
o ]
Bp?

.
n-1, k
x
*
o ]
'p?

B
1, k
x
*
o ]
?pB

2, k
x
*
o ]
BpB

.
n-1, k
x
*
o ]
'pB

. . . . .
"
1, k
x
*
o ]
?p"

2, k
x
*
o ]
Bp"

.
n-1, k
x
*
o ]
'p"

5.7. p dng ph ng php ti u ha trong quy hoch qun l
ngun n c
Phuong php toi uu ha khi p dung trong quy hoach v quan l nguon nuc rat
da dang. Trong ti lieu ny trnh by mot so ng dung cu the de minh hoa cho phuong
php toi uu ha.
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5.7.1. Ti uu vi bi ton thit k h thng
V d 1: Bi ton thit k h thng h cha cp n c
Gia su thiet ke he thong gom 3 ho cha v c nhiem vu cap nuc cho vng A vi
qu trnh luu luong can l q(t). Xc dinh dung tch hieu dung cua 3 ho sao cho chi ph
xay dung cong trnh l nho nhat. S c 3 cong trnh ho cha duoc dua vo xem xt
trong bi ton quy hoach v c 3 loai kha nang phuong n cong trnh:
1. Xay dung ho cha 1 v ho cha 2 vi quy mo tuong ng l V
1
v V
2
:
Vc
1
V
1
V
1bt
: Vc
2
V
2
V
2bt

Vc
1
,Vc
2
- dung tch chet cua ho HC1 v HC2
V
1bt
,V
2bt
- dung tch ln nhat cho php tuong ng vi muc nuc dang bnh
thung cho php cua hai ho.
2. Xay dung ho 2 v ho 3 vi quy mo V
2
v V
3
: Vc
3
V
3
V
3bt

Vi Vc
3
l dung tch chet cua ho HC3: V
3bt
l dung tch ln nhat cho php cua ho
HC3 tuong ng vi muc nuc dang bnh thung cho php.
3. Xay dung ca 3 ho cha vi quy mo V
1
, V
2
v V
3
.

Q(t)
Q
KG1
(t)
Q
KG2
(t)
HC1
HC2
HC3
Vng tui
C
q
C
(t)
Vng tui
A
Vng tui
B
q
B
(t)
q
A
(t)

Hnh 5-12: So d he thong cap nuc tui
HC1, HC2, HC3 - ho cha: Q (t) l qu trnh luu luong den thiet ke tuyen ho HC1:
Q
KG1
(t), Q
KG2
(t) l cc qu trnh luu luong khu gia thiet ke:
q
A
(t), q
B
(t), q
C
(t) l qu trnh luu luong theo yeu cau tui cua vng A, B, C:
Vng A, B, C - vng tui.
C the p dung phuong php quy hoach dong giai bi ton ny.
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Goi cc gi tri
1 2 3
v ,v ,v l cc quy mo dung tch hieu dung cua moi cong trnh.
Khi d theo dieu kien dia hnh dung tch ln nhat v nho nhat cua dung tch hieu dung
V
h1dh
, V
h2dh
, V
h3dh
l:
0 V
1
V
h1dh
= V
1bt
-V
1c

0 V
2
V
h2dh
= V
2bt
-V
2c

0 V
3
V
h3dh
= V
3bt
-V
3c

V
h1dh
, V
h2dh
, V
h3dh
l dung tch hieu dung dia hnh nam gia dung tch chet v
dung tch tuong ng vi muc nuc dang bnh thung V
1bt
, V
2bt
, V
3bt
.
Can xc dinh quy mo cong trnh cho cc cong trnh duoc dua vo quy hoach sao
cho cuc tieu hm muc tieu:

3
j j
T
j 1
C (v )
V
J C min
min
=
= =

(5-164)
Phuong php giai bi ton duoc thuc hien theo cc buc tnh xuoi v tnh nguoc.
a. B c tnh xui
Cc phuong n xay dung dau tien: Chi ph xay dung ho dau tien duoc viet
dui dang:

T
1 1 1 1
C (V ) c (V ) = (5-165)
Vi cc rng buoc:
- Ve cap nuc q
C
(t) = q
A
(t) (5-166)
- Ve dia hnh 0 V
1
V
h1dh
: (5-167)
oi vi ho dau tien mi c mot doi tuong nen chua xt toi uu, gi tri V
1
nhan gi
tri bat ky trong gii han cho php cua n, c
1
(V
1
) l von dau tu doi vi ho HC1 vi quy
mo V
1
.
Xc nh gi tr dung tch hiu dng nh nht v ln nht ca HC1:
Dung tch nho nhat cua ho HC1 phai dam bao du cap nuc lay tai thuong luu
ho l q
A
(t). Tien hnh tnh ton dieu tiet cho ho HC1 duoc dung tch hieu
dung toi thieu du cap nuc theo yeu cau q
A
(t) l V
h1(min)

Gia su ho HC2 v HC3 l dap dang, khi d ho HC1 phai c dung tch dieu
tiet bo sung du ln de cap nuc theo q
B
(t) v q
C
(t). Gia su tnh dieu tiet cho he
thong duoc dung tch hieu dung ln nhat ho HC1 l V
h1T
,. oi chieu vi dung
tch hieu dung ln nhat cho php theo dia hnh V
h1dh
:
- Neu V
h1T
V
h1dh
th V
h1max
=V
h1dh
(v dung tch ho khong the vuot muc
nuc dang bnh thung cho php).
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- Neu V
h1T
< V
h1dh
th V
1max
=V
h1T
(ho cha HC1 chi can dung tch ln nhat
V
h1T
d du cap nuc cho ton he thong).
Gia su ta chia bien do dung tch ho HC1 thnh n1 cap (de tien theo di ta gia
dinh chia thnh 4 mc: n1= 4) l V
11
, V
12
, V
13
, V
14
vi dieu kien:
V
h1min
V
11
, V
12
, V
13
, V
14
V
h1max
(5-168)
Tuong ng s c von dau tu xay dung l C
1
(V
11
) C
1
(V
12
) C
1
(V
13
) C
1
(V
14
).
Cho v du bang so:
Phuong n bo tr dung tch hai h dau tien: Phuong trnh toi uu c dieu kien
khi bo tr dung tch hieu dung hai ho dau tien duoc viet dui dang:

T
2 2 2 2 1 1
2
C (V ) (c (V ) c (V ))
min
v
= + (5-169)

Bang 5-15: Dung tch hieu dung v chi ph xay dung h HC1
=*%H'( E' -8'( ,q)*
K,1.S8 "
B
L
r
>>
lr
*>".'
l>p_ r
>?
l Cp_ r
>B
l Op_ r
>C
lr
*>"A]
l >_
k>Kr
>
L K,s Gt'(L k
>
Kr
>>
Ll >_p_ k
>
Kr
>?
Ll >Mp_ k
>
Kr
>>
Ll ?_p_ k
>
Kr
>C
Ll B_p_

Phuong trnh (5-169) duoc viet dui dang phuong trnh truy hoi:

T T
2 2 2 2 1 1 2
2
C (V ) (c (V ) C (V V
min
v
)) = + + (5-170)
Vi rng buoc:
T T
2 1 2
(V ) V V = + , t d suy ra:
T T T
2 2 1 2 1
V V V V V = - = - (v trong trung hop xem xt hai ho dau tien th
T
1 1
V V = )
Trong d V
1
v V
2
l quy mo cong trnh cua ho so HC1 v ho so HC2 c the
chon bat ky sao cho nam trong gii han c the cua n:
T
2
V l dung tch tong cong cua
hai ho dau tien: c
1
(V
1
), c
2
(V
2
) l chi ph xay dung ho th nhat v th hai vi quy mo V
1

v V
2
:
T
2 2
C (V ) l gi tri toi uu c dieu kien phuong n 2 ho dau tien.
Vi dieu kien tong dung tch cua hai ho dau tien nam trong khoang gi tri ln
nhat v nho nhat cua n:

T T T
2 2 1 2 2
minV V (V V ) maxV = + (5-171)
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Trong d:
T T
2 2
min V , maxV tuong ng l dung tch tong cong nho nhat v ln
nhat cua hai ho dau tien.
Xc nh
T T
2 2
minV , maxV :
Tong dung tch nho nhat cua ho HC1 v HC2 phai dam bao du cap nuc lay tai
thuong luu ho HC1 l q
A
(t) v ho HC2 l q
B
(t), tuong ng vi ho HC1 c dung tch toi
thieu l V
h1min
. Tien hnh tnh ton dieu tiet cho ho HC1 v ho HC2 duoc dung tch
hieu dung tong cong cua hai ho l:
T
2
minV = 3,0 trieu m
3

Xc nh
T
2
maxV :
Tong dung tch hieu dung ln nhat cua hai ho tuong ng vi trung hop ho HC3
l dap dang (dung tch hieu dung bang '0). Khi d hai ho cha phai dam HC1 v HC2
phai dieu tiet bo sung dam bao cap du nuc tui cho ca 3 khu tui. Tnh ton dieu tiet
cho hai ho cha HC1 v HC2 theo dieu kien tren duoc tong dung tch hieu dung cho
hai ho tren l
T
2tt
maxV . Tong dung tch hieu dung cua hai ho
T
2
maxV khong the ln
hon dung tch cho php do dieu kien dia hnh. Boi vay:
- Neu
T T
2tt 2dh
V maxV = V
h1dh
+V
h2dh
th
T
2
maxV =
T
2dh
V
- Neu
T
2tt
maxV <
T
2dh
V = V
h1dh
+V
h2dh
th
T
2
maxV =
T
2tt
V
Gia su thong qua tnh ton duoc
T
2
maxV = 10 ty m
3
. Gi tri cua dung tch hieu
dung tong cong nam trong khoang:
3,0 trieu m
3
=
T
2
minV
T
2
V
T
2
maxV =10 trieu m
3

Gia su chia gi tri
T
2
V thnh 3 mc: 3,0: 5,0: 10,0 (trieu m
3
)
S c cc to hop sau day cua dung tch hai ho cha dau tien (bang 5-15):
Cc gi tri c k hieu (*) l cc gi tri cho kinh ph nho nhat duoc xc dinh theo
cong thc (5-169). Cc phuong n toi uu doi vi 3 mc cua tong dung tch
T
2
V duoc
thong ke trong bang (5-16). Trong bang (5-16), moi phuong n toi uu cua mot mc
tuong ng s l gi tri toi uu cua V
1
v V
2
.

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Bang 5-15: Cc to hop phan phoi dung tch hai h cha dau tien v gi tri toi uu
T
2
V
K,1.S8 "
B
L
T
1 1
V V =
K,1.S8 "
B
L
k
>
Kr
>
L
K,s Gt'(L
r
?
K,1.S8 "
B
L
k?Kr
?
L
K,s Gt'(L
k
?
T
2
) (V l k>Kr
>
Lck?Kr
?
L
K,s Gt'(L
T
2
V l Bp_ >p_ >_p_ ?p_ >Np_ ?Np_
K^L

>p_ >_p_ Cp_ ??p_ B?p_
T
2
V lMp_
Cp_ >Mp_ >p_ Pp_ ?Bp_
K^L

>p_ >_p_ Qp_ BNp_ CNp_
Cp_ >Mp_ Np_ ?Pp_ CBp_
Op_ ?_p_ Bp_ >Mp_ BMp_
T
2
V l>_p_
>_ B_p_
_p_
KGuv -g'(L
?p_ B?p_
K^L

Phuong n bo tr dung tch ba h cha: Phuong trnh toi uu c dieu kien c dang:

T T
3 3 3 3 2 2
C (V ) min (c (V ) C (V ) = + (5-172)
Vi rng buoc:
T T
3 2 3
V V V = + (5-173)
T d xc dinh V
3
=
T T
3 2
V V -
Bang 5-16: Phuong n toi uu theo cc mc cua
T
2
V
=*%H'( E' -8'( ,q)*
K,1.S8 "
B
L
T
2
V l Bp_
T
2
V lMp_
T
2
V l>_p_
".' k
?
K
T
2
V L K,s Gt'(L ?Np_ ?Bp_ B?p_
r
>
>p_ Cp_ >_p_
r
?
?p_ >p_ _p_

Trong d: V
3
l dung tch ho th 3:
T
3
V l dung tch tong cong cua 3 ho cha:
c
3
(v
3
) l chi ph xay dung ho th 3 vi quy mo v
3
:
T
3 3
C (V ) l gi tri toi uu phuong n 3
ho:
T
2 2
C (V ) l gi tri toi uu c dieu kien khi xem xt cc phuong n 2 ho dau tien. Gi
tri toi uu
T
3 3
C (V ) l gi tri toi uu cuoi cng, gi tri ny phu thuoc vo bien chon V
3
.
Boi vay, can phai thuc hien buc cuoi cng: chon trong so cc gi tri
T
3 3
C (V ) mot gi
tri nho nhat v d chnh l gi tri toi uu cua hm muc tieu.
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Bang 5-17: Dung tch hieu dung cua h HC3 v kinh ph xay dung tuong ng
Xh'( -8'( ,q)* *.S8 -w'( *t k>ck?
K,1.S8 "
B
L
=*%H'( E' >
T
2
V l Bp_
=*%H'( E' ?
T
2
V lMp_
=*%H'( E' B
T
2
V l>_p_
x.'* v*q ]g< -y'( )y) ,.;8 *A. *t k>c k?
".' k
?
K
T
2
V L K,s Gt'(L
?Np_ ?Bp_ B?p_
V8'( ,q)* *.S8 -w'( *t kBz r
B
K,1.S8 "
B
L

Op_ Mp_
_p_
KGuv -g'(L
x.'* v*q ]g< -y'( *t kBz k
?
Kr
B
L K,s Gt'(L B_p_ ?Np_ Bp_
Xh'( i.'* v*q ]g< -y'( B *t K,s Gt'(L MNp_ CQp_ BMp_
K^L

Ho HC3 l ho bac cuoi cng nen dung tch cua ho HC3 phai dam bao du cap
nuc cho vng tui C vi q
C
(t) vi su dieu tiet bo sung cua hai ho pha tren. Vi moi
phuong n tong dung tch hieu dung cua hai ho HC1 v HC2 l
T
2
V trong bang (5-16)
s c tuong ng 1 gi tri dung tch hieu dung cua ho HC3. Tnh ton dieu tiet cho he 3
ho cha vi cc phuong n
T
2
V s duoc dung tch hieu dung tuong ng cua ho HC3.
Trong bang (5-17) thong ke ket qua xc dinh V
3
, kinh ph xay dung km theo cua ho
HC3 v kinh ph tong cong xay dung ca 3 ho theo cc mc khc nhau cua
T
2
V (d toi
uu o buc tnh ton truc).
b. B c tnh ng c
Theo ket qua tnh ton o giai doan cuoi cng thong ke trong bang (5-17) cho
thay phuong n 3 l phuong n toi uu nhat, kinh ph xay dung tong cong nho nhat l 35
ty dong. Suy nguoc lai cc gi tri toi uu c dieu kien o bang (5-16) cho ket qua dung
tch hieu dung cc ho cha nhu sau:
Ho HC1: Dung tch hieu dung V
1
= 10 trieu m
3
: ho HC2 v HC3 deu c dung
tch hieu dung bang '0. Nhu vay, chi nen xay dung ho cha HC1 cn cc vi tr cn lai
chi nen lm dap dang.
V d 2: Xc nh su cng tc c li nht ca h thng h cha bc
thang pht in
Trong v du ny xem xt bi ton toi uu cho he thong ho cha bac thang
pht dien.
o sau cong tc c loi nhat cua moi ho cha trong he thong bac thang pht dien
duoc lua chon sao cho lm cuc dai tong cong suat dam bao cua he thong tram thuy
dien cua cc ho cha trong bac thang:
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F(h
1
, h
2
,..., h
j
,..., h
n
) =
n
j
j 1
Np max
=
= F(h
1
, h
2
,..., h
j
,..., h
n
) (5-174)
Hm muc tieu (5-174) c tham bien nghiem l cc do sau cong tc.
Hm muc tieu cua bi ton ny c dang khong tch duoc nen khong the ng
dung phuong php quy hoach dong.
Bi ton c the giai bang phuong php lap cua truc tiep doi vi vc to:
H = (h
1
, h
2
,... h
n
).
Giai bi ton tren theo cc buc thuc hien nhu sau:
(1) Lua chon toa do ban dau lm diem xuat pht:

0 0 0 0
1 2 n
H (h , h , ..., h ) = (5-175)
Tuong ng ta c:

0 0 0 0
1 2 n
F(H ) F(h , h ,..., h ) = (5-176)
(2) Chon mot bien bat ky trong vc to H v d tm hung c the cho bien ay. Ta
bat dau bien dau tien h
1
, cc bien khc duoc gi nguyen gi tri ban dau. Gia su ta tang
gi tri cua
1
h mot gi tri Dh
1
.
Ta c:
1 0
h
1 1 1
h h = + D (5- 177)
(3) Tnh gi tri
0 0 0
,
1 2 n
F F(h h , h ..., h )
1 1
= + D
v tnh DF
1
= F
1
- F(H
0
) (5-178)
- Neu DF
1
0 chng to hung di chuyen l dng ta co dinh diem d vi
1
h v
d sang bien khc.
Tc l lay
1 0
1 1 1
h h h = + D (5-179)
- Neu DF
1
< 0 hung d ny khong ve duoc max (khong dat). Ta phai d theo
1 0
1 1 1
h h h - = D
Tiep tuc tnh
0 0 0
F F(h h , h , ..., h )
1 1 1 2 n
= - v
0
'
1
F F F(H ) D = -

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Chon gi tri ban du h
o
(1), h
0
(2), .., .., h
0
(n)
Bt du
Tinh hm gi tri F
0
(h
0
(1), h
0
(2), ..,..,h
0
(n)
I=1
(*)Ti nh hm F
1
= F[h
1
(), (h
n
(k ), vi k=1,2,..,n) v k )]
DF
0
> 0
DF
1
= F1 F
B
F
B
=F
0

h
1
(I) = h
0
(I)+Dh(I)
DF
1
> 0
yes
I=I+1
I> n
yes
h
1
(I) = h
0
(I) - Dh(I)

Tinh F
1

DF
1
= F1 F
B

DF
1
> 0
h
1
(I) = h
0
(I)
yes
No
DF
0
= F
1
F
0

h
0
() = h
1
()
vi moi
DF
0
> e Dh(I) = 0, 5* Dh(I)

F
B
= F
1

yes
yes
No
No
No
STOP
No

Hnh 5-13: Phuong php l"p truc tiep xc dinh do sau cong tc c loi nhat

w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n

Neu
'
1
F 0 D , chng to hung d tm dng, ta co dinh diem d v d tm cho

1 0
1 1 1
h h h = - (5-180)
Neu
1
F 0 D <
'
, hung d tm khong dat, tc l roi vo tnh trang "tien thoi lung
nan". Trong trung hop ny ta gi nguyen bien h
1

1 0
1 1
x x = (5-181)
(5) D tm theo hung c the cua bien th hai: Trong khi bien th nhat d duoc
2
h D
Chon
2 0
1 2 2
h h h = + D v tnh
1 0 0 0
2 1 2 2 3 n
F F(h , h h , h ..., h ) = +
(6) Tnh:
2 2 1
F F F D = -
Neu DF
2
0 hung di chuyen dat yeu cau, ta co dinh toa do h
2
v d tm cho
bien tiep theo, tc l chon

1 0
2 2 2
h h h = + D (5-182)
Neu DF
2
< 0, hung d tm khong dat phai li.
Ta chon
1 0
2 2 2
h h h = D - v tnh -
1 0 0 0
2 1 2 2 3 n
F F(h , h h , h ..., h ) =
Tnh
'
2 2 1
F F F D = -
- Neu
'
2
F 0 D hung d tm dat yeu cau v co dinh diem d chon:

1 0
2 2 2
h h h = D - (5-183)
v tiep tuc d tm cho bien tiep theo.

1 0
2 2
h h = (5-184)
(7) Tiep tuc lm nhu cc buc tren dy cho den cuoi cng l h
n
. Ta ket thc lan
lap th nhat.
w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n
(8) Sau khi d ket thc lan lap th nhat, tnh gi tri F(H
1
), vi:

1 1 1 1
1 2 n
H (h , h , ..., h ) = (5-185)

1 0
F F(H ) F(H ) 0 D = - > (5-186)
Neu (5-186) khong thoa mn, hung d tm khong thoa mn, chuyen
sang buc (10).
Neu (5-186) thoa mn, su d tm theo hung ny (xu the chung doi vi
tat ca cc tham bien) dat yeu cau. Kiem tra them dieu kien:
Neu F D e (5-187)
Trong d e l so duong cho truc tuy (sai so cua ket qua d tm diem cuc tri)
- Neu (5-187) thoa mn, ket thc cong viec d tm v nghiem toi uu
cua bi ton l:

1 2 n
H (h , h , ..., h )
* * * *
= (5-188)
- Neu F D > e, c nghia l hung di chuyen l dng nhung chua den
diem cuc tieu vi sai so cho truc e.
Ta tiep tuc d tm tiep, nhung toa do ban dau cho lan d tm tiep theo l diem ket
thc doi vi lan d tm truc, tc l: H
0
= H
1
, dong thi buc d tm duoc chon nhu lan
d tm truc d, tc l:
lay
2 1
i i
h h i 1, n D = D =
(10) Trong trung hop DF < 0, chng to hung d tm khong dat do d vuot qu
diem c gi tri min. Kiem tra dieu kien:

k
i 1
h D e vi moi i (5-189)
Trong d: k l chi so chi lan lap:
1
e l sai so cho truc doi vi cc Dh
i
vi moi i.
Neu (5-189) thoa mn, ket thc d tm v nghiem cua bi ton.
Trong trung hop nguoc lai can chia nho buc d tm bang cch chon:

k k 1
i i
1
h h
2
-
D = D
v tiep tuc quay lai t buc dau tien, cho den khi dat duoc cc dieu kien (5-188) v (5-189).
w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n

5.7.2. Ti uu ho trong bi ton phn phi nuc
Pht biu bi ton
Gia su ta c mot luong nuc han che l W
T
, can phan chia cho n vng sao cho
tong loi ch mang lai l ln nhat. Gia thiet cc vng duoc nhan nuc t W
T
c the
khong dp ng yeu cau vng. Trong trung hop nhu vay, cc vng c the khai thc
nguon nuc tai cho v sap xep co che cay trong hop l cho vng d.
Goi w
j
l luong nuc cap cho vng th j: j = 1 den n, sao cho thoa mn rng buoc:

n
T
i
j 1
w W
=
=
(5-190)
Can tm phuong n phan phoi nuc sao cho l cuc dai hm muc tieu c dang:
F = f
1
(w
1
, w
x1
, s
1
, A
1
) +...+ f
j
(w
j
, w
xj
, s
j
, A
j
) +...+ f
n
(w
n
, w
xn
, s
n
, A
n
) max (5-191)
Trong d:
w
vj
- luong nuc m c the khai thc duoc o trong vng:
s
j
- von can dau tu bao gom chi ph cho yeu cau ve nuc, phan bn v.v... :
A
j
- thong so hnh thc dac trung cho phuong n cay trong.
Gia thiet rang:
w
j
+ w
vj
= D
j
(5-192)
Trong d:
D
j
- luong nuc can phu thuoc vo cc phuong n cay trong.
Cc hm f
j
(.) l loi ch mang lai vi phuong n phan phoi nuc. Hm loi ch f(.)
c the loi ch thu duoc cua t viec bn nuc (theo quan diem phan tch ti chnh) hoac
loi ch kinh te mang lai cho ton vng (theo quan diem phan tch kinh te).
Ph ng php gii
Viec giai bi ton toi uu dang (5-191) l rat phc tap v so luong bien cua bi
ton da dang, mat khc kh tm duoc phuong php thch hop cho bi ton dat ra doi
vi nhng he thong c cau trc phc tap.
e giai bi ton loai ny thung ngui ta su dung k thuat phan cap. Ta c the
mo ta bi ton tren day theo he thong hai mc (xem hnh 5-14). Ta mo ta bi ton phan
phoi nuc theo hai dang: quan diem kinh te v quan diem ti chnh.
Theo quan diem kinh te, bi ton duoc mo ta nhu sau:
Cap trung tam cho chi tieu hoat dong cc cap dui l w
j
, j = 1,..., n, cc cap dui
nhan duoc chi tieu w
j
s tm phuong n toi uu cho he thong con dang xt v cho phan
hoi len cap trung tam l j
j
f (w ) .
w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n
oi vi vng th j, khi nhan luong nuc he thong l w
j
, s can lm toi uu mot loi
ch trong vng cua n bieu thi bang hm muc tieu:
f
j
(w
j
, w
vj
, s
j
, A
j
) (5-193)
Trong d:
Muc tieu dat duoc cua vng th j l lm cuc tri hm (5-193) vi rng buoc hm
(5-192). Cap trung tam s quan tam den gi tri cuc dai cua f
j
(w
j
), Ta c:

j j j vj j j
f(w ) max f (w , w , s , A ) = (5-194)
sao cho thoa mn rng buoc (5-192). Gi tri w
j
l phuong n phan phoi nuc cho vng
th j duoc coi l d biet khi giai bi ton toi uu (5-194), nghiem cua bi ton doi vi
vng s l cc gi tri toi uu doi vi cc dac trung w
vj
, s
j
, A
j
.
Ch rang vi w
j
nhan duoc, cc phuong n cay trong A
j
bao gom cc trung
hop bo hoang khong canh tc v khong c loi.
Nhu vay gi tri toi uu cua he thong lm cuc dai hm loi ch:

1 1 2 2 n n
maxF(w) f (w ) f (w ) ... f (w ) = + + + (5-195)
Vi rng buoc dang (5-190).
Trong d: W = ( w
1
, w
2
,..., w
j
,..., w
n
)
Nhu vay, vi k thuat phan cap chng ta d dua mot bi ton toi uu nhieu bien so
(n+4n bien) ve n bi ton toi uu c 5 bien v 1 bi ton toi uu n bien. Vi cch nhu
vay s lm giam su phc tap cua bi ton toi uu.
Cc buc giai bi ton tren nhu sau:
(1) oi vi moi he thong con th j, gia dinh nhng gi tri w
j
khc nhau
(w
j1
, w
j2
,..., w
jm
), vi moi gi tri w
ji
tien hnh tm cuc tri hm muc tieu dang (5-194)
duoc cc gi tri j
j
f (w ) .
(2) Vi moi vng j nhu vay v duoc mot quan he hm toi uu gia j
j
f (w ) vi cc
w
j
(hnh 5-15).
(3) Giai bi ton toi uu ton he thong dang (5-195).
Bi ton toi uu dang (5-195) c the duoc giai bang cc phuong php toi uu khc
nhau: Phuong php quy hoach tuyen tnh, phuong php quy hoach dong, phuong php
toi uu phi tuyen. a so cc bi ton toi uu loai ny hien duoc giai bang phuong php
quy hoach tuyen tnh hoac phuong php quy hoach dong.
w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n

) ( f
j
w
j
) ( f
n
w
n
Trung tm
Vng 1
max f
1
(.)
Vng j
max f
j
(qj)
Vng n
max f
n
(qn)
w1
wj
w
n
)
1
(w
1
f
Hnh 5-14a: So d phan cap he thong theo quan diem phan tch kinh te
) ( f
j
w
j
) ( f
n
w
n
Trung tm
Vng 1
max f
1
(.)
Vng j
max f
j
(qj)
Vng n
max f
n
(qn)
a
1
a
j
a
n
)
1
(w
1
f
Hnh 5-14b: So d phan cap he thong theo quan diem phan tch ti chnh

Dui day s trnh by cch dat bi ton cho cc phuong php tren.
Theo quan diem ti chnh, chi tieu hoat dong cua he thong cap dui khong phai
l w
j
m l gi nuc. Bi ton dat ra nhu sau:
Gia su cong ty quan l thuy nong can dinh gi nuc cho cc vng l a
j
,
j =1, 2,..., n. Vi gi nuc an dinh cho tng vng, cc vng s phai xem xt kha nang
dng nuc vi gi nhu vay v quyet dinh luong nuc dng w
j
. ay l gi tri toi uu m
ho c the dng de toi uu hm muc tieu cuc bo dang (5-194). Phan hoi cua tng con len
trung tam (Cong ty) l gi tri toi uu j
j
f (w ) bang:
j
j j j
f (w ) a w =
V hm muc tieu vi cap trung tam c dang:

n
j j
j 1
F a w
=
=

(5-196)
w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n
Co quan quan l nuc (Cong ty) phai quyet dinh ve phuong n gi nuc sao cho
loi ch cua cong ty l ln nhat, tc l hm muc tieu (5-196) phai dat gi tri cuc dai.
j f (w
j
)
w
j

Hnh 5-15: Quan he j
j
f (w ) # w
j

1. Ph ng php d tm ti u
Bi ton toi uu dang (5-195) vi rng buoc dang (5-190) c the dua ve dang bi
ton khong c rng buoc bang cch lap hm Lagrange:
L (W, l)= F(W) + l (W g(W)) (5-197)
Trong d g(W) = w
1
+ w
2
+ ... + w
n
.
Vi l l nhan tu Lagrange.
Bi ton toi uu dang (5-197) duoc giai bang cc phuong php d tm toi uu,
Trong d:
W = (w
1
, w
2
,..., w
j
,...,w
n
)
Vi phuong php d tm toi uu s tm duoc nghiem toi uu l
*
v W
*
:
W
*
= (w
*
1
, w
*
2
,..., w
*
n
)
2. Ph ng php quy hoch ng
Hm muc tieu cua bi ton (5-195) l hm tch duoc. Boi vay, c the p dung
phuong php quy hoach dong de giai bi ton toi uu vi bi ton. Ta viet lai hm muc
tieu vi dang sau:

1 1 2 2 n n
Z f (w ) f (w ) ... f (w ) = + + + (5-198)
Vi rng buoc:
w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n

W
T
= w
1
+ w
2
+... + w
n
. (5-199)
Phuong php qui hoach dong duoc giai quyet bang cch su dung cong thc truy
hoi cua Bellman:

T T
j
j j j j 1 j j
(W ) max(f (w ) (W w ))
-
= + - Z Z (5-200)
trong d: 0
T
j
W W
T
Cc gi tri j
j
f (w ) duoc tra tren bieu do (5-15).
Bi ton toi uu duoc giai theo nhieu giai doan, dau tien xem xt su phan phoi
nuc cho 2 vng, sau d l 3, 4 vng v.v..., cho den n vng. Sau d thuc hien php tnh
nguoc tm duoc nghiem toi uu.
3. Ph ng php quy hoch tuyn tnh
Phuong php quy hoach tuyen tnh di hoi hm muc tieu v cc rng buoc phai
l cc bieu thc tuyen tnh. Cc bi ton phan phoi nuc tren he thong c the coi l
thoa mn vi di hoi ny. Ta xt 2 bi ton sau:
a. Bi ton phn phi n- c theo quan im phn tch ti chnh
Theo quan diem phan tch ti chnh, hm muc tieu c dang (5-196), vi rng
buoc (5-190), v c the viet lai nhu sau:
max F = a
1
w
1
+ a
2
w
2
+... + a
j
w
j
+... + a
n
w
n
(5-201)
Vi rng buoc:
w
1
+w
2
+...+w
j
+..+w
n
= W
T
(5-202)
ay l dang bi ton tuyen tnh c the giai duoc theo phuong php quy hoach
tuyen tnh.
b. Bi ton phn phi n- c theo quan im phn tch kinh t
Theo quan diem phan tch kinh te lay loi ch pht trien vng v pht trien quoc
gia de phan tch chien luoc phan phoi nuc.
oi vi tng vng (5-191) c the viet hm muc tieu dui dang:

m Nt Nt
j j j j s i q i
j 1 i 1 i 1
F (B y C )A c S c Wn
= = =
= - - -

(5-203)
Trong d:
A
j
- dien tch cay trong loai j:
B
j
- gi thnh mot don vi san phm cay trong th j:
Y
j
- nang suat loai cay trong th j:
w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n
C
j
- chi ph cho mot don vi dien tch loai cay trong th j (khong tnh chi ph nuc:
C
s
, C
q
- gi nuc mat v nuc ngam:
S
i
- luong nuc mat duoc su dung:
W
q
- luong nuc ngam duoc su dung:
m - so loai cay trong:
Nt - so thi doan tnh ton trong mot nam (thi doan thung lay bang thng).

Vi moi mot phuong n phan phoi nuc w
j
, vng j phai c phuong n bo tr cay
trong de lm cuc dai hm (5-203).
Vi cc rng buoc:
- Rng buc v din tch:
Tong dien tch canh tc khong vuot qu dien tch canh tc c the A.
Neu goi
j
j
A
A
l = th phai c
m
j
i 1
1
=
l
(5-204)
- Rng buc v nhu cu n- c t- i cy trng:
Tong luong nuc o mot thi doan no d doi vi loai cay trong khong duoc vuot
qu luong nuc m he thong c the cap:

m
j j i s i q j i
i 1
A R S W
=
h + h
(5-205)
Trong d R
ji
l mc su dung nuc tren mot don vi dien tch cua cay trong th j
tai thi diem i. ,
s q
h h l he so su dung nuc mat v nuc ngam.
- Rng buc v n- c mt:
Luong nuc mat cua vng cng khong duoc vuot qu muc c the cap duoc cua
he thong:

Nt
i c
i 1
S W
=

(5-206)
- Rng buc v n- c ngm:
Tuong tu nhu nuc mat

Nt
i q
i 1
W W
=

(5-207)
Trong d W
c
v W
q
tuong ng l luong nuc mat v nuc ngam m he thong c
the cap.
w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n

- Rng buc v din tch cy trng:
Tuy thuoc vo dieu kien cu the cua tng vng dien tch cay trong loai j no d
phai nam trong gii han nhat dinh:
A
min
A
j
A
c
(5-208)
A
min
v A
c
l gi tri nho nhat v ln nhat cua dien tch cay trong dnh cho cay
trong th j.
Cc bieu thc t (5-203) den (5-208) deu c dang tuyen tnh nen c the p dung
phuong php quy hoach tuyen tnh de giai.

5.7.3. Ti uu vi bi ton pht trin ngun nuc
Pht biu bi ton
Gia su doi vi mot vng cu the can dp ng yeu cau ve nuc W(t) trong thi gian
quy hoach T, yeu cau dat mc toi da cuoi thi ky quy hoach l Wmax. Gia su trong
giai doan giai bi ton thiet ke he thong cong trnh d xc dinh duoc tap cc phuong n
cong trnh de thoa mn yeu cau nuc dat ra. Can xc dinh cc cong trnh no s duoc
dua vo xay dung v xay dung vo thi gian no cua thi ky quy hoach de kinh ph
xay dung l nho nhat.
V du: V du mot he thong c 4 cong trnh s duoc xay dung. Von dau tu xay
dung C v kha nang cap nuc Wc tuong ng cho o bang 5-18. Gia su cc cong trnh
duoc xay dung phai dp ng yeu cau nuc W(t) duoc cho trong bang 5-19. He so chiet
khau r = 0,05.
Yeu cau xc dinh trnh tu dau tu xay dung cc cong trnh sao cho chi ph xay
dung l toi thieu. Tc l, tm cuc tieu cua hm muc tieu:
F =
n t
-t
it it
i=1 i=1
x C (1 r) min + (5-209)
Trong d:
C
it
- chi ph xay dung doi vi cong trnh th i:
C
it
= 0 neu n khong duoc xay dung vo nam t:
C
it
= C
it
neu n duoc xay dung vo nam t :
r - he so triet khau, t bien l thi gian tnh theo nam.
x
it
- he so lay gi tri bang 0 v 1: bang 0 tc l khong xay dung, khi nhan vi
C
it
s c tch bang 0, c nghia l khong c chi ph xay dung. Viec du vo
he so x
it
de de dng trong qu trnh tnh ton.
Vi cc so lieu o 2 bang (5-18) v (5-19), c 3 phuong n ve dau tu xay dung de
dam bao duoc yeu cau nuc pht trien theo thi gian W(t).
w
w
w
.
v
n
c
o
l
d
.
v
n
Bang 5-18: Von dau tu v kha nng cap nuc cua cc cong trnh
(Trong v du chi ph: tnh theo don vi (ty dong): cn kha nang cap nuc
v nhu cau nuc tnh theo don vi the tch bang 1 trieu m
3
)

kf'( ,1{'* > ? B C
k*. v*q ]g< -y'( k ?_p_ BMp_ C_p_ M_p_
x*| '5'( )+v '%e) j) >p_ ?p_ Bp_ Cp_

Bang 5-19: $hu cau nuc theo thi gian (10 nm)
, > ? B C 5 N O P Q 10
j K,L M M M M 6 N N N N 10

Phuong an 1: Xay dung cong trnh 1 v 4 vo nam dau tien c the cap duoc
Wc = 5 don vi (du nuc theo yeu cau), den nam th 5 hon thnh them cong trnh so 2
v nam th 10 hon thnh cong trnh 3.
Phuong an 2: Nam dau xay dung hai cong trnh 2 v 3, den nam th 5 hon
thnh cong trnh 1 v den nam th 10 xay dung xong cong trnh 4.
Phuong an 3: Nam dau xay dung hai cong trnh 2 v 4. Vi 2 cong trnh ny
duoc xay dung s c kha nang cung cap Wc = 6 don vi, du dp ng den nam th 10.
Boi vay, 2 cong trnh cn lai s duoc hon thnh vo nam th 10. Nhu vay, den nam
th 5 khong di hoi c them cong trnh no na ngoi hai cong trnh d duoc xay dung
t nam dau. ieu d c nghia l 2 cong trnh 1 v 3 c the xay dung vo bat ky thi
diem no, mien l den nam th 10 phai hon thnh. Cc phuong n xay dung duoc ghi
trong bang (5-20).
Bang 5-20: Cc phuong n xay dung cong trnh
75" G98 ,.Y'
KjK,L l M GH' IJL
}Z' '5" ,*4 M
KjK,L l N GH' IJL
}Z' '5" ,*4 >_
KjK,L l >_ GH' IJL
XX
=*%H'( E'
)f'( ,1{'*
~: *.S8 )f'( ,1{'* ,*2
v*%H'( E'
~: *.S8 )f'( ,1{'* ,*2
v*%H'( E'
~: *.S8 )f'( ,1{'* ,*2
v*%H'( E'
> => >cC ? B
? =? ?cB > C
B =B ?cC >cB

Ph ng php gii
C the giai bi ton theo hai phuong php: Phuong php so snh truc tiep v
phuong php quy hoach dong.
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a. Ph- ng php so snh trc tip
Theo phuong php ny nghiem toi uu duoc tm truc tiep bang cch so snh cc
gi tri cua hm cua 3 phuong n tren. C the lap bang dang (5-21) v so snh cc ti
lieu tnh duoc trong bang tren chon ra gi tri nho nhat.
Bang 5-21: Tnh ton chi ph theo phuong php so snh truc tiep
XX =*%H'( E' 75" G98 ,.Y' }Z' '5" ,*4 M }Z' '5" ,*4 >_ Xh'( )!'(
> => >cC ? B
mK=>L K?_cM_LK>c1L
`>
KBMLK>c1L
`M
KC_LK>c1L
`>_
>__

? =? ?cB > C
mK=?L KBMcC_LK>c1L
`>
K?_LK>c1L
`M
KM_LK>c1L
`>_
>>P
B =B ?cC >cB
mK=BL KBMcM_LK>c1L
`>
K?_cC_LK>c1L
`>_
>>P

b. Ph- ng php quy hoch ng
Phuong php quy hoach dong vi bien trang thi thung duoc p dung doi vi
cc loai bi ton c bien l hm cua thi gian. Bi ton ny duoc mo ta theo thuat quy
hoach dong nhu sau: Hm muc tieu (5-209) duoc viet lai dui dang khc:
Z =
n 0
Z(S , S ) min (5-210)
Vi Wc(t) W(t) vi moi t. (5-211)
Trong d S
0
l trang thi cong trnh tai thi diem ban dau: S
n
l trang thi cong
trnh o nam th n (nam cuoi cng cua quy hoach). ieu d c nghia l vi trang thi
he thong cong trnh ban dau l S
0
th phai c chien luoc pht trien he thong cong trnh
nhu the no de dua he thong t trang thi S
0
den trang thi S
n
de tong chi ph l nho
nhat v van c the dam bao nhu cau nuc trong qu trnh d l W(t). Trang thi ban
dau trong trung hop ny S
0
l mot tap hop trong (khong c cong trnh).
B c tnh xui:
Truc tien ta xem xt cc phuong n cong trnh o nam dau tien. Gia su o nam
dau tien ta c I
1
phuong n cong trnh dp ng yeu cau cap nuc sau nam dau tien
(trong v du tren c 3 phuong trnh I
1
= 3). Ta c chi ph xay dung cong trnh nam dau
tien l
1 1, k 0
z (S , S ) , trong d S
1,k
l trang thi cong trnh sau nam dau tien, chi so k l so
phuong n cong trnh: k =1, 2,..., k, I
1
.
Tiep tuc xem xt su pht trien cong trnh sau 5 nam (thi doan quy hoach lay
theo thi gian 5 nam). oi vi thi doan th I
2
phuong n cong trnh duoc chon sao
cho khi n ket hop vi trang thi S
1,k
(vi k =1, 2,..., I
1
) cua giai doan 1 lm thoa mn
nhu cau nuc o thi doan th 2, cc phuong n cong trnh duoc xay dung them o cuoi
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giai doan 2 l S
2,i
, vi i =1, 2,...,I
2
. Khi d ta c tong chi ph xay dung cho moi mot
phuong n ket hop l:

2 2, i 2 2, i 1, k 1 1, k 0
2,i
Z (S ) min (z (S , S ) z (S , S ))
x
= + (5-212)
Trong d:
1 1, k 0
z (S , S ) - chi ph xay dung tnh den cuoi giai doan 1 vi I
1
phuong n bat
ky S
1,k

o thi doan dau tien:
z
2
(S
2,i
,S
1,k
) - chi ph xay dung o giai doan 2 vi phuong n cong trnh S
1,k

o giai
doan 1 v phuong n S
2,i
o giai doan 2.
Vi moi trang thi th i o thi doan th 2, s tm duoc mot gi tri toi uu
1, k
S
*
o
thi doan th nhat de c su ket hop
0 1, k 2, i
S S S
*
- - l toi uu. Tuong ng vi moi trang
thi th i (
2
i 1, I = ) c mot gi tri
1, k
S
*
. Ta s c I
2
phuong n ket hop toi uu khi phuong
n cong trnh o giai doan 2 l
2, i
S vi i =1, 2,...,I
2
.
at
1 1, k 1 1, k 0
Z (S ) z (S , S ) = (5-213)
Ta c the viet lai bieu thc (5-51) dui dang sau :

2 2, i 2 2, i 1, k 1 1, k
2,i
Z
S
(S ) min (z (S , S ) z (S )) = + (5-214)
Trong d:
1 1, k
Z (S ) - gi tri von dau tu xay dung vi phuong n S
1,k
, o cuoi giai
doan dau tien.
Theo ket qua tm duoc, ta lap duoc cap quan he
1, k
S
*
~ S
2,i
.

en giai doan bat ky th j ta c bieu thc tong qut cua bi ton toi uu c dieu
kien nhu sau:

j j, i j j, i j 1, k j 1 j 1, k
j,i
Z
S
(S ) min (z (S , S ) z (S ))
- - -
= + (5-215)
Trong cong thc truy hoi tong qut gi tri hm Z
j
(S
j,i
) d quy doi ve gi tri hien
tai, tc l:

n
t
j 1 j 1, k it it
i 1
Z (1 r) x C (S )
-
- -
=
+ =
(5-216)
C
it
l chi ph cua tat ca cc cong trnh duoc dua vo phuong n tnh tai thi diem
bat ky: x
it
= 0 th coi nhu cong trnh khong duoc thuc hien.
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Tuong tu nhu tat ca cc thi doan tren, o giai doan bat ky th j, c the tm duoc
mot trang thi cong trnh o giai doan truc n j 1 l
j 1, k
S
*
-
de khi ket hop vi phuong
n cong trnh o buc th j l S
j,i
cho gi tri toi uu. Nhu vay, den giai doan th j ta c
mot chien luoc toi uu pht trien he thong cong trnh t trang thi ban dau S
o
den trang
thi bat ky S
j,i
l:
S
0

1, k
S
*

2, k
S
*

3, k
S
*

...

j, i
S .V c cap quan he
j 1, k
S
*
-
~
j, i
S
en giai doan cuoi cng j = n, ta c:

n n, i n n, i n 1, k n 1 n 1,k
Z (S ) min(z (S , S ) z (S ))
- - -
= + (5-217)
Trong d: S
n,i
l phuong n cong trnh o giai doan cuoi vi i =1, 2,..., I
n
. Gi tri
Z
n
(S
n,i
) chnh l gi tri toi uu cua hm muc tieu, de dua he thong t trang thi ban dau
den trang thi S
n,i
bat ky o giai doan cuoi. Tai thi doan cuoi, vi moi trang thi duoc
an dinh trong so cc trang thi c the i (vi i =1, 2,..., I
n
) cua n, s tuong ng c mot
ket hop toi uu cc phuong n cong trnh bat dau t trang thi ban dau.
Tai giai doan cuoi cng can xc dinh phuong n no trong so cc trang thi S
n,i

de c toi uu ton cuc. Khi d, gi tri toi uu s l cuc tri cua cc gi tri toi uu trong so I
n

trang thi toi uu c dieu kien o giai doan cuoi, tc l:
Z
n
= min (Z
n
(S
n,i
): i = 1, 2,..., I
n
) (5-218)
B c tnh ng c
Vi trang thi S
n
no d, tien hnh buc tnh nguoc s tm duoc phuong n toi uu:

0 1 2 j n
S , S , S , ..., S , ..., S
* * * * *
(5-219)
Cch giai bi ton tren day l bi ton chua ke den chi ph van hnh. Khi c ke
den chi ph quan l van hnh trong giai doan khai thc, hm muc tieu cua chien luoc
dau tu pht trien he thong cong trnh s c dang sau:
F =
T n
t
i i i it
t 0 i 1
(1 r) (a c b w )
-
= =
+ + +

min (5-220)
Vi cc rng buoc:
- Luong nuc cap duoc cua he thong cong trnh o nam t phai ln hon hoac bang
luong nuc yeu cau theo quy hoach cua nam d:

n
it
i 1
w W(t)
=

(5-221)
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- Chuong trnh thoa mn yeu cau ve nuc cua cong trnh th i vo nam t khong
vuot qu nang luc cua cong trnh l w
i
:
0 w
it
w
i
(5-222)

Trong d: t - bien thi gian:
i - chi so cong trnh:
r - he so chiet khau:
T - thi gian quy hoach tnh bang nam:
n - tong so cong trnh duoc nghien cu trong quy hoach:
W(t) - nhu cau nuc tong cong cua vng:
W
i
- kha nang dp ng yeu cau nuc ln nhat cua cong trnh th i:
c
i
- chi ph xay dung cong trnh th i:
a
i
- chi ph quan l cong trnh hng nam cua cong trnh th i,
(lay co dinh cho moi cong trnh):
b
i
- chi ph van hnh cho moi don vi luong nuc cua cong trnh th i:
w
it
- chuong trnh cap nuc cua cong trnh th i trong nam t.

Cch giai bi ton toi uu dang (5-220) duoc thuc hien tuong tu nhu bi ton chua
tnh den chi ph van hnh, chi khc o cho, vi moi phuong n pht trien he thong phai
tnh chi ph quan l van hnh cong trnh. Cong thc truy hoi theo nguyen l Bellman
van c dang:

j j, i j j, i j 1, k j 1 j 1, k
j,i
Z
S
(S ) min (z (S , S ) z (S ))
- - -
= + (5-223)
Trong d:
j j, i j j j, i j 1, k j 1, j 1,k
Z S (S ) g z (S , S ) h(S )
- - -
= + (5-224)

K
t
j j, i j 1, k kt
k 1
g (S S (a )(1 r)
-
-
=
= +
, ) (5-225)

K
t
j j, i j 1, k kt kt
k 1
h (S S b w (1 r)
-
-
=
= +
, ) (5-226)
a
kt
- chi ph quan l cho cong trnh th k duoc xay dung vo thi diem t:
c
kt
- chi ph xay dung cong trnh th k neu n duoc xay dung vo thi diem t :
b
kt
- chi ph van hnh cho mot don vi luong nuc w
kt
cua ke hoach cap nuc
cua cong trnh th k tai thi diem t.

V d minh ha
Gia su phai xc dinh chien luoc dau tu pht trien he thong cong trnh dp ng
yeu cau nuc cua vng trong tuong lai vi dung luong nuc dng cho trong bang
(5-22). Trong giai doan tnh ton thiet ke he thong d chon duoc 8 phuong n cong
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trnh c the dam bao cap nuc theo nhu cau tren. Kha nang cap nuc v chi ph dau tu
co ban thong ke trong bang (5-23).
Bang 5-22: %eu cau v nuc theo thi gian vi thi doan 5 nm
X*". (.A' KD,lM '5"L > ? B C
7*8 )98 '%e) K>_
N
"
B
L >__p_ >P_p_ ?M_p_ B__p_

Bang 5-23: Chi ph xay dung v quan l van hnh
kf'( ,1{'* X8h. ,*#
)f'( ,1{'*
75'( $y) )8'( )+v $
.

K>_
N
"
B
L
k*. v*q ]g< -y'( I! %8|' $&
)f'( ,1{'* )
.
cA
.
K>_
Q
Gt'(L
k*. v*q Iu' *!'* @
.

KGt'(b>_
N
"
B
L
> >__ Q>p?M_ >Np___ ?PR___
? >__ OBp___ >Mp___ ?MR___
B >__ MCpOM_ Np___ ?_R___
C >__ CMpN?M OpM__ >?R___
M >__ C_p>M_ Pp___ >MR___
N >__ BNpM__ >_p___ >?R___
O >__ B?pPM_ >_p___ >_R___
P >__ >Pp?M_ >Mp___ ?CR___

Bang 5-24: Chi ph xay dung v quan l van hnh
6%&'( '%e) )+v G%&) )*2 ,''( (.A. G23' Ie. v*%H'( E' ]g< -y'( )f'( ,1{'* v*w ,1E)* K>_
N
"
B
L
kf'( ,1{'*
> ? B C
> _ 70,265 Q>p??M NPp??M
? _ _ _ 73,000
B 54,375 MCpOM_ MCpOM_ MCpOM_
C 45,625 CMpN?M CMpN?M CMpN?M
M _ _ 40,150 C_p>M_
N _ _ _ _
O _ _ _ _
P _ _ 18,250 >Pp?M_
Xh'( T: >__p___ >P_p___ ?M_p___ B__p___

Yeu cau xay dung chien luoc pht trien he thong cong trnh sao cho tong chi ph
xay l nho nhat. He so chiet khau r = 6,125%.
Theo thuat ton quy hoach dong toi uu hm muc tieu dang (5-220) tnh duoc ket
qua chien luoc dau tu xay dung he thong cong trnh ghi trong bang (5-24). Theo ket
qua o bang (5-24) cong trnh th 6 v th 7 khong dua vo du n quy hoach (khong
w
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d
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n
can xay dung). Chien luoc toi uu s l: Giai doan 5 nam dau xay dung cong trnh 3 v
4: giai doan 2 xay dung cong trnh so 1: giai doan 3 xay dung cong trnh so 5 v so 8:
giai doan 5 nam cuoi xay dung cong trnh so 2 cn lai.

5.8. p dng m hnh m phng trong quy hoch ngun n c

Mo hnh mo phong l mot cong cu quan trong khi lap cc quy hoach hoac quan
l nguon nuc. Nhu d trnh by o tren, phuong php mo phong khong tm li giai
bang mo hnh toi uu m su dung mo hnh mo phong de tm li giai toi uu. Khc vi
phuong php toi uu ho, phuong php mo phong su dung mo hnh mo phong de tm
gi tri ln nhat (bi ton tm cuc dai) hoac nho nhat (bi ton tm cuc tieu) trong so cc
phuong n c the bang cch so snh truc tiep cc gi tri tnh ton. Nghiem cua bi ton
chua chac d trng vi nghiem toi uu ton hoc (nghiem cua phuong php toi uu ho),
do d n chi l a tri gan toi uu v thung goi l nghiem hop l.
Gia su ta giai bi ton toi uu ho bang phuong php mo phong khi thiet ke he
thong cong trnh. Qu trnh phan tch tnh ton xc dinh phuong n thiet ke he thong
duoc thuc hien theo cc buc v chu trnh sau:
Buc 1: Xc dinh muc tieu khai thc he thong v luong ho cc muc tieu khai
thc.
Buc 2: Thiet lap cc phuong n c the ve bien php cong trnh v cc phuong
n khai thc he thong v cau trc he thong cc yeu cau ve nuc (cc phuong n su
dung nuc, chong l, tieu ng v.v.).
Buc 3: Xay dung mo hnh mo phong he thong theo cc phuong n cong trnh v
phuong n khai thc he thong.
Buc 4: Kiem tra bang mo hnh mo phong kha nang dp ng cc yeu cau ve
nuc vi cc phuong n cong trnh d thiet lap. Qu trnh phan tch c the dan den su
can thiet phai dieu chinh bo sung cc phuong n cong trnh v phuong n khai thc.
Buc 5: Lua chon cc phuong n c the sau khi kiem tra theo yeu cau o buc 4.
Buc 6: Tm phuong n toi uu bang phuong php mo phong.
Buc 7: Kiem tra su chap nhan duoc cua phuong n toi uu v phan tch quyet
dinh phuong n quy hoach.
e minh hoa cho nguyen l tren ta xem xt v du ve thiet ke he thong ho cha
bac thang pht dien.
Gia su c 3 ho cha bac thang pht dien vi cc muc nuc dang bnh thung d
an dinh l Hbt
1
, Hbt
2
, Hbt
8.

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Can xc dinh cc do sau cong tc (do sau nuc t muc nuc dang bnh thung
den muc nuc chet) l h
CT1
, h
CT2
, h
CT3
sao cho tong cong suat dam bao cua he thong ho
cha l ln nhat:
F (h
CT1
, h
CT2
, h
CT3
) =
3
Pi
i 1
N max
=

(5-227)
Trong d N
Pi
l cong suat dam bao cua ho th i.

h
CT3
h
CT2
h
CT1
Hbt
CT3
Hbt
CT2
Hbt
CT1
Hbt: Muc nuc dng binh thung
h
CT
: su cng tc
H
C
; Muc nuc cht
H
C1
H
C2
H
C3

Hnh 5-16: So d he thong h cha bac thang pht dien

e tm nghiem toi uu cho bi ton tren c the ng dung phuong php toi uu ho,
cng c the su dung phuong php mo phong duoc thuc hien theo cc buc nhu sau:
Buc 1: Lua chon cc phuong n c the cua cc do sau cong tc h
CT1
, h
CT2
, h
CT8.

Gia su c m phuong n
Buc 2: Tuong ng vi moi phuong n su dung mo hnh tnh ton cong suat dam
bao cua he thong xc dinh cc gi tri cua hm F (h
CT1
, h
CT2
, h
CT3
).
Buc 3: Phan tch chon mot phuong n trong cc phuong n d tnh ton c hm
muc tieu (5-227) dat gi tri ln nhat.
@, ` "y) '%e) -g'( @{'* ,*%"'((
*
),
` G! Tg8 )f'( ,E)(
)
` "y) '%e) )*Z,R
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Cc buc xc dinh nghiem toi uu theo phuong php mo phong cua bi ton ny
mo ta tren hnh (5-17).
V chi c the chon hu han cc phuong n tnh ton nen nghiem tm duoc chi l
nghiem 'gan toi uu v c the khong trng vi nghiem tm duoc bang phuong php toi
uu ho.

Hnh 5-17: So d tong qut xc dinh nghiem toi uu bang phuong php mo ph&ng

Cc phuong n d su
cng tc:
=
>
K*
kX>p>
p *
kX?p>
p *
kXBp>
L
=
?
K*
kX>p?
p *
kX?p?
p *
kXBp?
L

=
B
K*
kX>pB
p *
kX?pB
p *
kXBpB
L

RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
=
U
K*
kX>pU
p *
kX?pU
p *
kXBpU
L

RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
RRR
RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
=
"
K*
kX>p"
p *
kX?p"
p *
kXBp"
L

Users' modeI
of system

nf *{'* ,q'* ,2E'
,*8s '5'( ]E) GJ'*
)f'( T8+, G|" @|2
)\A *S ,*:'( *t
)*4A

(M hnh
m phong)

Tnh cc gi tr| hm:
m l
3
Pi
i 1
N
=

m
>
K*
kX>p>
p *
kX?p>
p *
kXBp>
L
m
?
K*
kX>p?
p *
kX?p?
p *
kXBp?
L

m
B
K*
kX>pB
p *
kX?pB
p *
kXBpB
L

m
U
K*
kX>pU
p *
kX?pU
p *
kXBpU
L

RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
m
"
K *
kX>p"
p *
kX?p"
p *
kXBp"
L

k*#' v*%H'( E' ,:. %8 $! v*%H'( E' "! (.E ,1J *!" "w) ,.Y8
)0 (.E ,1J $e' '*+,
m K*
kX>
p *
kX?
p *
kXB
L l
3
Pi
i 1
N
=
dat gi tr| In nht

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CHUONG 6- H THNG H TRO RA QUYT INH 177

Chuong 6

h thng h tr ra quyt nh

6.1. Khi nim v h thng h tr ra quyt nh (DSS)

Trong qu trnh lap cc quy hoach nguon nuc cho mot vng, mot luu vuc song
ngui ra quyet dinh can nhan dang he thong nguon nuc, dnh gi dong thi cua he
thong v c du cc thong tin can thiet de ra quyet dinh dng. Thuc chat quy hoach
nguon nuc l tm kiem phuong n hop l nham thoa mn nhu cau ve nuc. e c mot
quyet dinh hop l, ngui ra quyet dinh can xu l mot khoi luong ln cc thong tin ve
he thong, d l mot cong viec kh khan v tieu ton nhieu thi gian doi vi ngui ra
quyet dinh. e ra quyet dinh, ngui ra quyet dinh can phan tch cc thong tin ve he
thong tren co so cc so lieu thu thap duoc, thiet bi xu l thong tin, mo hnh de phan
tch dong thi he thong v cong cu tro gip ra quyet dinh. Theo Larry W. Mays:
Water Resource Handbook, McGraw-Hill, 1996, ISBN 0 07 04 1150 6, qu trnh phan
tch ra quyet dinh c the mo ta theo so do tren hnh (6-1).

Hnh 6-1: So d qu trnh phan tch ra quyet dinh
Larry W. Mays:Water Resource Handbook, McGraw-Hill, 1996, ISBN 0 07 04 1150 6

M hnh

Ngui ra
quyt d|nh
Phn tch
Thit b| xu I
thng tin
Cng c
ra quyt d|nh
S Iiu
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.
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d
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v
n
Truc day, viec phan tch he thong ngui ra quyet dinh thung chi dua vo
nhng so lieu han che v so cng, cong cu ra quyet dinh v thiet bi xu l thong tin bi
han che v khong c su lien ket gia cc noi dung duoc mo ta tren hnh 6-1, ta goi d
l phuong php truyen thong. Vi nhng he thong phc tap v ton tai nhieu yeu to bat
dinh nhu he thong nguon nuc th phuong php truyen thong rat han che den chat
luong cua viec ra quyet dinh. Trong nhng nam gan day, vi muc dch nang cao chat
luong cua qu trnh ra quyet dinh ngui ta d pht trien mot phuong php mi duoc goi
l he thong tro gip ra quyet dinh. Su pht trien hung nghien cu tren day dua tren co
so nhng tien bo khoa hoc trong linh vuc cong nghe thong tin, tin hoc, cong cu v
phuong php tnh ton hien dai.
He thong ho tro ra quyet dinh (Decision Support System - DSS) cung cap phuong
tien cho cc nh ra quyet dinh c the tc dong truc tiep den co so d lieu v mo hnh
phan tch he thong.

Hnh 6-2: So d mo ta chu trnh dinh hung mo hnh DSS
Lucks, D.P and J.R Costa (eds.) (1990) Decission Support Systems Water Resourses
Planning. Proc. of ARD. Vidago (Porlugal), Springer-Verlag (ISBN-0.38753097.5).

Pht trin DSS
Cc chuong trinh
Kim tra &
s dung DSS
Thay di v
diu chinh
Su phn tich
Ngui phn tich
Quan dim ca ngui s
dung v h thng v cc
vn d h thng
Ngui s dung
Cc chuong trinh ca M hinh v h
thng v cc vn d ca h thng
M hinh ca ngui s
dung v h thng
Bt du
Thit lp DSS
Quan dim ca ngui phn tich v
h thng v cc vn d ca h thng
DSS
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Lucks D.P d dua ra dinh nghia nhu sau
He thong ho tro ra quyet dinh - DSS l mot he thong gom cc chuong trnh co so
d lieu, cc mo hnh xap xi ton hoc toi uu hoac mo hnh mo phong cng vi cc thuat
ton tuong ng duoc thiet lap lien quan den mot van de cu the, mot dia diem hoac mot
vng cu the nham tro gip cho viec tham khao, quy hoach, quan l, van hnh, thiet
ke cng nhu viec ra quyet dinh xu l cc tranh chap cua cc yeu cau su dung ti
nguyen nuc Lucks, D.P and J.R Costa (eds.) (1990) Decission Support Systems
Water Resourses Planning. Proc. of ARD. Vidago (Porlugal), Springer-Verlag (ISBN
0.38753097.5).
He thong ho tro trong mot ti lieu khc duoc dinh nghia nhu sau
He thong ho tro ra quyet dinh - DSS l mot he thong thong tin tong hop bao gom
cc phan cng (hardware), mang lui thong tin, co so d lieu, co so mo hnh, cc phan
mem (software) v nhng ngui su dung DSS nham thu thap tong hop thong tin phuc
vu cho viec ra quyet dinh (cc nh ra quyet dinh).
He thong ho tro ra quyet dinh DSS ket hop viec su dung cc mo hnh v cc k
thuat phan tch vi viec dnh gi truyen thong. Viec thiet lap DSS nham muc dch de
dng su dung trong mot hon canh c su tc dong qua lai v c the thch nghi vi su
thay doi cua moi trung cng nhu su tiep can cc quyet dinh cua ngui su dung. Ngoi
ra, de nang cao hieu qua ve mat kinh te, DSS cng c the tang cung hieu qua ve mat
quan l bang viec su dung phan tch c dieu kien.
Tren so do hnh 6-3 chi r su khc biet cua phuong php truyen thong v DSS.

Phuong php truyn thng DSS (Decision Support System)
- Nhng vn d duoc cu trc r rng
- S dung phuong php tinh ton don gin
- Cu trc cng nhc
- Thng tin han ch

- C th nng cao cht luong quyt dinh
bng cch lm r rng s liu th
- Nhng vn d khng duoc cu trc r rng
- S dung cc m hinh
- Cu trc c tuong tc qua lai
- C kh nng s dung thich nghi do thng tin
duoc cp nht thung xuyn
- C th nng cao cht luong quyt dinh trn
co s s dung m hinh ton v cc phn
mm tro gip ra quyt dinh
Hnh 6-3: Su khc nhau giua phuong php truyn thong v DSS

Thuc chat qu trnh ra quyet dinh l qu trnh phan tch he thong duoc tro gip
boi DSS. oi vi cc bi ton quy hoach v quan l nguon nuc th mo hnh mo phong
v mo hnh toi uu ho l rat can thiet. Nhng mo hnh ton dang duoc su dung rong ri
hien nay trong quy hoach v quan l nguon nuc deu duoc xay dung theo dang cau
trc cua DSS.
Qu trnh phan tch he thong ra quyet dinh vi su ho tro cua DSS c the mo ta
tren hnh 6-1.
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6.2. H thng h tr ra quyt nh trong quy hoch v qun l
ngun n c

He thong ho tro ra quyet dinh d duoc thiet lap phuc vu cho cong tc quan l o nhieu
ngnh k thuat khc nhau. Moi mot linh vuc k thuat hoac doi tuong can quan l c yeu
cau rieng ve viec thiet lap DSS. He thong ho tro ra quyet dinh hien duoc ng dung rong
ri trong linh vuc quy hoach v quan l nguon nuc c nhng mang chnh nhu sau
1. Co so d lieu cua he thong
2. Cc mo hnh he thong (duoc coi l cong cu phan tch he thong)
3. He thong thong tin v xu l thong tin
4. Cc phan mem
Cc mang tren thung duoc lien ket vi nhau trong mot phan mem quan l dieu
hnh hoac cc mo hnh ton ve he thong.

Hnh 6-4: Cau trc v moi lien ket giua cc khoi cua DSS
Loucks, D.P. 1991. Computer Aided Decission Support in Water Resources Planning and
Management. In Loucks D.P. and J.R. Costa (eds), Decission Support Systems Water
Resources Planning Proceedings from the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on
Computer-Aided Support Systems for Water Resources, Researc and Management.
Ericeria, Portugal 24-28 September, 1990.
Xc Ip thng tin
Co s d liu
H thng thng tin dia ly GS
Cng c dnh gi
Chon tiu chun dnh gi
Xy dung kich bn
Kim tra dnh gi
Cng c xu I thng tin
M phng h thng (m hinh
m phng)
M hinh ti uu

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Larry W. Mays d dua ra cau trc tong qut cua he thong DSS (xem hnh 6-4)
gom nhng khoi chnh nhu sau
Cong cu dnh gi bao gom chon tieu chuan dnh gi, xay dung kich ban v
kiem tra dnh gi.
Xc lap thong tin bao gom co so d lieu v he thong thong tin dia l GIS.
Cong cu xu l thong tin bao gom Mo phong he thong, v mo hnh toi uu.

Rene F.Reitsma, Edith A.Zagona (eds.) tren co so tong hop nhng cong trnh
cong bo ve DSS d dua ra luoc do tong qut xay dung he thong ho tro ra quyet dinh
gom 8 buc nhu sau
(1) Xc dinh su can thiet cua phan tch he thong tren co so xc dinh nhng van
de can thiet phai phan tch, so bo thiet ke he thong ho tro ra quyet dinh v du kien
nhng ti lieu c lien quan cho viec thiet ke DSS.
(2) Xc lap de cuong, muc tieu v thiet lap DSS bao gom viec luong ho muc
tieu, lua chon mo hnh doi vi bi ton dat ra, thiet lap cau trc cua DSS v xc lap GIS.
(3) Chi tiet ho cc chc nang cua DSS d thiet lap.
(4) Chi tiet ho cc phan mem (Software) cua DSS Tren co so chi tiet ho cc
chc nang cua DSS xay dung cc chuong trnh, thuat ton mo ta cc chc nang v hoat
dong cua DSS, xay dung co so d lieu v xay dung phan mem cua DSS.
(5) Pht trien DSS day l buc khi qut ho v hon thien thiet ke DSS tren co
so nhng muc tieu v noi dung can phai phan tch.
(6) Khoi dong v thu nghiem l su thu nghiem ban thiet ke DSS de phan tch
tnh kha dung cua ban thiet ke.
(7) Kiem tra v bo sung cho DSS d thiet lap tren co so kiem tra vi he thong
thuc de kiem tra kha nang lm viec v chat luong cua DSS, t d bo sung vo ban thiet
ke cua DSS.
(8) ng gi v tch hop.

6.2.1. Co so d Iiu
Co so d lieu duoc luu gi nh mot phan mem Ngan hng d lieu. Modun ny
dng vai tr cua mot co so d lieu c chc nang luu tr, cho php cap nhat (sua cha,
them, bt) d lieu. Cc loai d lieu duoc quan l bao gom
+ Cc ti lieu kh tuong-thuy van Luong mua, luong boc hoi, do am khong kh
tuong doi, nhiet do khong kh, so gi nang, toc do gi, luu luong, muc nuc...
+ Cc ti lieu lien quan den su dung nuc Khu tui, khu tieu, dac tnh dat dai,
co cau cay trong...
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+ Ti lieu ve he thong cong trnh Ho cha, cong dieu tiet, cong lay nuc, tram
bom, kenh muong, cc loai cong trnh khc nhu cau mng, xiphong...
+ Ti lieu dan sinh-kinh te v yeu cau dng nuc cua cc ngnh:
+ Ti lieu van hnh tui/tieu phng l... cua he thong:
+ Cc ban do GIS (He thong thong tin dia l) the hien cc loai so lieu tren.
+ Ngoi ra, mot so loai ti lieu nhu ho so thiet ke, quy hoach he thong, cc van
ban php quy lien quan den he thong, quy trnh van hnh, cc hnh anh v phim video
cng duoc quan l trong modun dui dang cc trang HTML (ngon ng dnh dau sieu
van ban duoc su dung tren Internet).
Cc thong tin do modun quan l duoc cap nhat tien loi thong qua cc khung nhap
lieu. Cc so lieu luu gi trong ngan hng d lieu duoc thiet ke sao cho c the trao doi
thong tin phuc vu cho tng phan mem ng dung khc mo hnh mo phong, phan tch
d lieu v.v...
Chc nang cua ngan hng d lieu phuc vu cho muc dch tra cu thong tin. Ngoi
ra, ngui su dung c the tra cu ton bo cc thong tin trong co so d lieu mot cch tuy
bien thong qua tra cu tren cc ban do GIS. Thong tin tra cu c the duoc the hien qua
cc bang bieu, cc dang do thi hoac the hien tren ban do GIS, cc dang ho so v tu lieu
khc nhu hnh anh, phim v.v...

6.2.2. M hnh ton
Mo hnh ton l mang quan trong trong he thong tro gip ra quyet dinh. Mo hnh
ton bao gom mo hnh mo phong v cc mo hnh toi uu ho.
Mo hnh mo phong duoc su dung de phan tch he thong nguon nuc theo cc tc
dong khc vo he thong. Mo hnh mo phong bao gom cc mo hnh thnh phan duoc
lien ket vi nhau hoac duoc sap xep thnh cc modun rieng cau trc trong mot phan
mem chung. Mo hnh mo phong he thong bao gom nhng mo hnh tnh nhu cau nuc,
chuyen tai nuc trong he thong song (mo hnh thuy van, mo hnh thuy luc), mo hnh
chat luong nuc, mo hnh tnh ton hieu qua kinh te...
Mo hnh toi uu ho duoc su dung de tnh ton v xc dinh phuong n toi uu cua
bi ton quy hoach hoac dieu hnh he thong.

6.2.3. H thng trao di thng tin
He thong truyen tin thung duoc thiet lap trong quan l he thong nguon nuc. He
thong trao doi thong tin thung duoc thiet ke hoat dong theo nguyen tac tu dong ha.
He thong do dac quan trac v trao doi thong tin duoc thiet ke rat da dang phu
thuoc vo cong cu truyen tin (mang Intenet, k that Rada, anh ve tinh...). C the minh
hoa cau trc cua he thong do dac v trao doi thong tin don gian dui day (hnh 6-5,
6-6, 6-7).
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He thong trao doi thong tin c nhiem vu tu dong truyen thong tin do dac quan
trac, truyen cc lenh dieu khien he thong. Cc thong tin cua he thong duoc lien ket vi
mang co so d lieu v mang mo hnh ton.
a. Thit b trao i thng tin c th l hu tuyn hay v tuyn
He thong truyen tin dang vo tuyen duoc mo ta tren hnh 6-5 v 6-6. Tnh nang
hoat dong cua he thong nhu sau
- Tat ca cc thiet bi phan cng deu phai c chuong trnh dieu khien (Driver) de
truyen/nhan thong tin dui dang m v so bao gom cc thong tin do dac, cc d lieu
he thong v cc lenh dieu khien.
- Truyen thong tin do tai tram do theo thi gian quy dinh dui dang so cua cc
dac trung muc nuc, mua, do am khong kh v.v...
- Cc thiet bi phai c chc nang truyen tin theo dang 'truyen so cc d lieu,
'truyen lenh dieu khien, 'truyen tep thong tin cua cc d lieu luu d t tram do ve
trung tam v nguoc lai.
- Che do truyen thong tin v luu gi thong tin trong thiet bi do nen duoc quy dinh
theo che do do cc dac trung kh tuong thuy van v cc dac trung khc cua he thong.
- Mot tap tin truyen t tram do ve trung tam v nguoc lai phai bao gom m dac
trung duoc truyen, m cua dac trung thi gian tuong ng, gi tri cua dac trung v dia
chi trao doi thong tin.
b. S lin kt gia mng phn cng v phn mm

B. SO

S 3-3: S lin kt ti trm o

My thu pht

My tnh
Driver my thu
pht
Thit b
o
Driver
thiet bi do
Phn mm
Thiet bi luu du
thong tin

Hnh 6-5: So d lien ket tai tram do
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Tai tram do: My tnh tai tram do s duoc ci dat phan mem co so d lieu, c
chc nang luu tr so lieu do dac tai tram do v cap nhat cc thong tin khc cua he
thong tai vng quan l cua tram do.

Seial port

B. SO

3-4

My thu pht

My tnh
Driver my thu
pht
Bng
in t
Driver
bang dien
tu do
Phn mm
Thit b| Iuu d
thng tin

Hnh 6-6: So d lien ket tai trung tam

So do lien ket tai tram do duoc trnh by tren hnh 6-5. So do c cc thnh phan
lien ket sau
Mot Driver thiet bi do c chc nang thu tin t thiet bi do v
- Chuyen thang thong tin qua Driver cua my pht de pht tin ve trung tam
- Chuyen thong tin truc tiep vo Phan mem my tnh.

Mot Driver my pht c chc nang
- Chuyen thang cc thong tin thu nhan t trung tam vo phan mem dieu hnh
(Khi my tnh dang lm viec) hoac chuyen qua thiet bi luu d thong tin de chuyen vo
my tnh khi my tnh bat dau lm viec.
- Chuyen thong tin t tram do ve qua phan mem my tnh ve trung tam.
- Chuyen truc tiep cc thong tin do dac cua thiet bi do ve trung tam.
Mot Thiet bi luu d thong tin c chc nang luu d thong tin truyen ve t trung
tam khi my tnh tram do khong lm viec v tu dong chuyen thong tin thu duoc vo
phan mem dieu hnh khi my tnh bat dau lm viec.
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B ni trung tm (HUB)
Tram 1 Tram 2 Tram 3
RAS
!"# %&!' ()
Mang ni vi trung tm
Hnh 6-7: He thong truyn tin huu tuyen

.....
Cc tram lm vic t xa
Bang hien thi
thong tin
(mn hnh
My ch
*+ ," %&-" '!"#
*+ %&!' %!, .&/"# %0'

Mang cc b (LAN)
tai Trung tm
diu khin
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Tai trung tam: My tnh tai trung tam s duoc ci dat phan mem He dieu hnh cng
Ngan hng d lieu, c chc nang thuc hien cc ket qua tnh ton cc phuong n dieu
hnh, luu tr so lieu do dac v cc d lieu khc truyen ve t cc tram do, cap nhat cc
thong tin khc cua he thong v pht cc menh lenh t trung tam ti cc tram do. So do
lien ket tai trung tam duoc trnh by tren hnh 6-6. So do c cc thnh phan lien ket sau
Mot Driver cua my thu pht c chc nang
- Chuyen thang cc thong tin thu nhan t cc tram do vo phan mem dieu hnh
cua my trung tam (Khi my tnh dang lm viec) hoac chuyen qua thiet bi luu d
thong tin de chuyen vo my tnh trung tam khi my tnh bat dau lm viec.
- Chuyen thong tin t tram do qua Driver bang dien tu den Bang dien tu.
- Chuyen thong tin dieu khien den cc tram do.

Mot Driver cua bang dien tu c chc nang chuyen thong tin t cc tram do
hoac t phan mm diu hnh tai trung tam den bang dien tu. He thong truyen tin vo
tuyen c cau trc gom mot mang rong v mot mang noi bo (xem hnh 6-7).

6.2.4. Phn mm h tro ra quyt d|nh
Phan mem ho tro ra quyet dinh duoc thiet ke theo nguyen tac lien ket tat ca cc
mang cua he thong ho tro ra quyet dinh. Trong thuc te, phan mem tro gip ra quyet
dinh trong quy hoach v quan l nguon nuc thung c nhng mang chnh nhu sau
- Mo hnh mo phong he thong
- Co so d lieu c chc nang luu tr so lieu phuc vu tra cu v duoc lien ket vi
mo hnh mo phong de phuc vu tnh ton. Co so d lieu duoc lien ket vi he thong
thong tin dia l (GIS).
Hien nay, nhng mo hnh ton he thong nhu mo hnh ISIS, MIKE11, HEC-
RESIM v.v... deu duoc xay dung theo nguyen tac He thong ho tro ra quyet dinh, boi
vay rat tien dung cho ngui su dung trong qu trnh ra quyet dinh.

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ti liu tham kho

[1] Branislav Djordjevic Cybernetics in Water Resources Management, Water
Resources Publications, Highlands Ranch, Colorado,1993, ISBN 0 918334 82 9.
[2] Biswas, A.K, Jellali, M., and Stout G.E., (eds.) (1993) Water for Sustainable
Development in the TWenty-fist Century, xford University Press (ISBN 0 19 563303 4).
[3] Goodman,A.S. Principles of Water Resources Planing. Prentise-Hall, Inc, 1984,
ISBN 0 137 10616 5.
[4] Daniel P. Louks, Jery R. Stedinger, Dougias A. Haith: Water Resource Systemt
Planning and Analysis, International Institute for Hydraulic and Environmental
Engineering, Delft, the Netherlands,1981, ISBN 0 139 45923 5.
[5] Larry W. Mays:Water Resource Handbook, McGraw-Hill, 1996, ISBN 0 07 04 1150 6.
[6] Mays L.W., Tung Y.K., Hydrosystems engineering and management, McGraw-
Hill, Inc, 1992,ISBN 0 070 41146 7.
[7] Loucks, D.P. 1991. Computer Aided Decission Support in Water Resources
Planning and Management. In Loucks D.P. and J.R. Costa (eds), Decission Support
Systems Water Resources Planning Proceedings from the NATO Advanced
Research Workshop on Computer-Aided Support Systems for Water Resources,
Researc and Management. Ericeria, Portugal 24-28 September, 1990.
[8] Grigg N.S., Water Resources Management Principles, Regulations, and Cases,
McGraw-Hill,1996. ISBN 0 070 41146 7.
[9] James, L.D and Lee, R.R Economics of Water Resource Planning, McGraw-
Hill,1996. Library of Congress No 79 115146.
[10] Loucks, D.P, Stedinger, J.R Water Resources Systems Planning and Analysis,
Prentice-Hiall,1981. (ISBN 0 139 45923 5).
[11] World Bank (1993) Water Resource Planning, A World Bank Policy Paper.
The World Ba. Washington, D.C.
[12] Bao cao nong nghiep. Du n qui hoach tong the dong bang song Hong (VIE
89/034), H Noi, 2-1993.
[13] Bo co Du n nao vt song Ninh co, Bo Nong nghiep v Pht trien nong thon,
H Noi, 4- 2001.
[14] Bao cao ve kinh te vng dong bng song Hong. Du n qui hoach tong the dong
bang song Hong (VIE 89/034), H Noi, 2-1994.
[15] Chow V.T., David R. Maidment v Larry W. Mays, Ihuy vn ung dung, o
Hu Thnh v o Van Toan dich, Nh xuat ban Gio duc, 1994.
[16] N. N. Moi xeep: Cc van de ton hoc trong phan tch he thong, Nayka -
Mascova, 1981.
[17] E.P .Galianhin: Toi uu ha trong phan phoi nuc cho he thong tui. Leningrat - 1981.
[18] B. G. Priazinskaia: Mo hnh ton trong linh vuc nguon nuc, Nayka - Mascova, 1985.
[19] Viet Nam - nh gi tong quan ngnh thuy loi, Bo co chnh do WB, ADB,
FAO, UNDP, NGO v IWRP lap, 1996.
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Tr!

min ( max) (5-26)

vi i =1, 2,..., n (5-46)

D < , chng to hung d tm dng, ta co dinh diem d v d tm cho

D , hung d tm khong dat, tc l roi vo tnh trang "tien thoi lung

D < . Hung d tm dat yeu cau v co dinh diem d chon:

dat gi tr| In nht

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